What happened Monday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; no retail rate changes today. deposit stress grows for FHBs. livestock prices drop fast, swaps rates slump, NZD holds, & more

27th Jan 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

GONE FISHING / OUT SAILING
For our offshore readers, it has been a public holiday in the top half of the North Island (half the population), and so data, economic and commercial news is slim to non-existent. It has been business as usual in the rest of the country.

DEPOSIT STRESS
The latest update from our home loan affordability research shows just how tough it is for first home buyers to save an adequate deposit. House prices have risen more than twice as fast as incomes for typical first home buyers over the last 10 years, leaving them struggling to scrape up a deposit in most parts of the country.

FAST RETREAT
Take a moment to check out these charts. Prices for livestock which went up quickly in 2019 are now falling fast. The extent of the decline is steep, but more importantly, very fast. See lamb, bull, steer and stag charts. Just a reminder that farmers are price takers. Hopefully most of them saved when the times were good.

A FIRST FALSE ALARM?
Tourists were tested in Rotorua for coronavirus. But the tests were apparently negative. Six people have been quarantined in Fiji. It's getting closer.

LOCAL SWAP RATES SINK
Wholesale swap rates have fallen steeply today, down -4 to -5 bps across all tenors reflecting risk aversion setting in across the globe. The 90-day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.28%. Australian swap rates aren't being traded today. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -2 bps today at 1.07%. The China Govt 10yr is holding lower at 3.03%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down another -5 bps at 1.41% from where it opened this morning. The UST 10yr yield has slid to 1.64%, down -4 bps since this morning and -10 bps since this time on Friday. That is a big move.

NZ DOLLAR MOSTLY STAYS FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has slipped against the greenback since it opened this morning and is now back to 65.8 USc. And it has slipped very marginally against the Aussie to 96.6 AUc. Against the euro we are at 59.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is back at 71.2 and where we were on Friday.

BITCOIN RECOVERS
Bitcoin is higher than where we left it on Saturday, up +2.1% today to US$8,654. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

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13 Comments

by J.C. | 27th Jan 20, 4:42pm 1580096529

Not much movement in USD/JPY. Everyone on tenterhooks. Gold and silver stealthily moving. No fireworks.

NZX50 down about O.6% (using FNZ as a proxy). Nothing dramatic.

Beer sales down 25% in Vietnam on new draconian drink driving law. Heineken shares feeling the heat. Very profitable market for beer manufacturers.

by Andrewj | 27th Jan 20, 5:13pm 1580098399

Alliance are telling farmers to expect more falls. Lots of venison in store and consumer resistance to the high prices. Beef and lamb still correcting. back to the good old days.

by Kezza R | 27th Jan 20, 5:26pm 1580099199

Central Otago has more than the usual amount of deer in the paddocks at present.
Wild deer numbers are quite high as well. I saw 18 in a 24 hour trip before Xmas on public land.

by Yvil | 27th Jan 20, 6:11pm 1580101904

Yet prices for deer antlers are still very high

by J.C. | 27th Jan 20, 6:22pm 1580102553

Yet prices for deer antlers are still very high

Are they? Or are you just trolling?

by Andrewj | 27th Jan 20, 6:47pm 1580104055

Velvet prices have been very good for a while now.

by J.C. | 27th Jan 20, 5:41pm 1580100118

Well that kicked off quickly

Hong Kong protesters torch planned Wuhan virus quarantine building

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-hong-kong-protest…

by Kezza R | 27th Jan 20, 7:13pm 1580105607

Hindering efforts to control a national emergency is next level.

by Audaxes | 27th Jan 20, 5:48pm 1580100501

Working for Families Tax Credit (WFF) UK style

Richard Branson's Virgin Healthcare has paid no tax on £2billion NHS deals

by J.C. | 27th Jan 20, 6:20pm 1580102409

The Brits are screwed. The ruling elite is simply running amok now.

by J.C. | 27th Jan 20, 6:33pm 1580103192

Offshore Yuan in heavy selloff. Shanghai Top 50 stocks by market cap ETF on the Nikkei down 5%.

by Henry_Tull | 28th Jan 20, 6:09am 1580144984

Hey, this has already been announced!
Double double dip.
Unless you like Iraqi road flavour (because that's what a lot of the roads in the South are like).

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/119064149/government-set-to-announce-12b…

Anyone want a used press release, goes cheap, real cheap.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 27th Jan 20, 10:48pm 1580118494

... exactly as I said earlier today ... 3 years wasted ... now dusting off the Gnats roads of national significance programme... plus some other goodies thrown in ....

Grant Robertson should get a gymnastics gold medal... this backflip is a doozy ...

... wondering what the " we hate cars " party are thinking of this .... silence from Julie Anne Genter ?