Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news investors are making a brave effort today to look past the China economic risks.
Equity markets have decided that the China virus emergency isn't going to affect them. Wall Street has made a sharp recovery today, with the S&P500 up more than +1% in mid-day trade. That follows European markets which led up with that sort of rise earlier.
Very strong transport equipment orders in the US saw their December durable goods order data rise sharply, up +2.4%. But defense orders drove the result. Excluding defense orders, American durable goods orders actually fell -2.5% in December from a very weak November. And year-on-year, overall durable goods orders were down -3.7% and the non-defense orders were down -6.9%. It is hard not to come to the conclusion that the Pentagon's buying is all that is holding up this data.
Worse, overall capital goods orders are down -10.7% in December from a year ago, and the non-defense component was down an eye-watering -18.0% year-on-year. American business investment is very weak.
But American consumer sentiment is following Wall Street - or perhaps Wall Street was impressed by this data. Consumer confidence rose in January, following a moderate advance in December, driven primarily by a more positive assessment of the current job market and increased optimism about future job prospects. Manufacturers (like 3M and Harley Davidson) are announcing retrenchments. But service industries like banks and tech firms are hiring. It was a rise in consumer sentiment that beat analysts' expectations.
Meanwhile, the Chinese coronavirus is spreading. And most countries have put in place emergency restrictions on travellers from China. But news a Hong Kong university lab has developed a vaccine is encouraging. And the WHO now says there is actually no need to evacuate foreign nations from Wuhan even though many countries are readying plans to do just that. It is a signal that reinforces the sense of panic out of proportion to the actual risks. But such moves play well in domestic politics. But the Chinese actions to deal with the crisis seem to be winning favour with investors. Plus SARS and MERS both passed reasonably quickly and those memories play a part too.
In Europe, the UK has decided to follow Germany's lead and allow Huawei to supply some key but non-critical components in their 5G system. It seems likely New Zealand will follow too, leaving only the US and Australia applying a complete ban. Over-egging by the US seems to have resulted in a diplomatic failure.
In Australia, more evidence that businesses are facing a deteriorating situation. The final monthly business survey of 2019 provides further evidence that conditions edged lower and confidence weakened, falling 2 points to -2 index points, the lowest read since mid-2013. While broadly stable, forward looking indicators do not signal a material improvement in the near term. Forward orders remain weak and capacity utilisation is just below average. Capex has pulled back over the year, and is now also below average. The 2020 China situation won't have improved things from there.
The UST 10yr yield has recovered today, up +3 bps after yesterday's sharp drop and now at 1.64%. Their 2-10 curve is now at +18 bps. Their 1-5 curve has remained negative, now at -7 bps. And their 3m-10yr curve is still flatter at just +11 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +3 bps to just under 1.00%. The China Govt 10yr is holding at 3.03% but of course their markets are closed this week (at least). But the NZ Govt 10 yr hasn't joined the rebound party yet. It is down another -7 bps to 1.33% and continuing its steep retreat.
Gold is down today on the improved risk mood, now at US$1,569/oz and that is -US$9 lower in a day.
US oil prices are up today recovering about $1 of the previous declines, now just under US$53.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark is up too at just under US$59.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is still lower at 65.3 USc. On the cross rates we have dipped to 96.7 AUc. Against the euro we little changed at 59.3 euro cents. The net of these shifts leaves our TWI-5 at just on 70.8.
Bitcoin is still rising, now at US$8,974 and that is a daily rise of +2%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
95 Comments
Learnt that long before Coronavirus.
- Pike river (Still not in)
- Christchurch Earthquake (Likely to never be sorted)
- Kaikoura Earthquake (Lucky the yanks and aussies had ships here)
- White island (Only went in due to pressure from Aussie)
Our Government does not help private citizens. Unless of course they "donate" the correct amount at the correct time.
NSW, asking travelling kids, with china trips to stay back at home. (be at home not come to school).
https://youtu.be/XtLDJAGJU8c
Comms are open with SoMo.
https://youtu.be/vH-Yb392NtI
Exactly!!!!!
Translation: Banks create money. Now that we finally admit it, let's super quickly abolish it so the financial oligarchy stays in charge & ordinary people get no chance to benefit from the vast power of credit creation that was only supposed to make few billionaires, not equality Link
Re-read the comments. Including your own.
We are not talking about Kiwis (The general populace of NZ)
We are talking about the Government of NZ. i.e. the various ministers/departments.
No body has said Kiwis do not step up. If it wasn't for the general public stepping up this Country would have truly fallen apart years ago.
We are saying the Government does not step up.
You are right- some governments back in the day did step up, and Individually the bulk of us are probably doing alright, but collectively we are struggling. Particularly when you look at the last 20-25 years.
- decreasing education standards
- increasing poverty
- increased mental health issues/depression
- increased suicide
- increased crime
- etc...
Yes Noncents there was more accountability and dedication, back a bit. Recall for instance, the tragedy at Cave Creek. The then Minister, Marshall I think, did not resign. He said he would stay where he was, it was his responsibility and he would face the music accordingly. And when he had seen through all that needed to be done and all that he could do, then he would resign. Whether you agree with that or not, don’t think we have anything near that calibre amongst MPs sitting in parliament today.
... no ... as I recall it was back in May last year , when Mallard said that someone working within the beehive was a rapist ...
The guy who was later stood down from his job , was eventually proven innocent ...
.. he's now seeking $ 400 000 in general damages , and $ 50 000 in punitive damages against Mallard ...
Yes but all accounts its a masterpeice? - The Palestinian prime minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, said the plan had more to do with Trump and Netanyahu’s legal woes than peace. “This is a plan to protect Trump from impeachment and protect Netanyahu from prison. It is not a Middle East peace plan,” he said.
Yeah. Compare it to the Carter/Camp David talks, and weep.
But you can trace it back to overpopulation. That was the Lebensraum fur Herrenvolk, that was the Holocaust, that was ADDING the Jewish refugees to Palestine. Ever since, the locals have been herded into an ever-smaller reservation, as happens to all intruded-upon indigenous populations - First Nations and Aboriginals and all the others.
Plus which we have the disingenuous comment about jobs and prosperity - unchallenged by a media who don't question what underwrites either.
Palestine birth rate was 8 per woman up till 70's has since fallen to around 4. If anything the jews are being outbred, which has caused a lot of problems. Other States in the middle east have no wish for a settlement in Palestine, if anything they will be stirring up trouble and leaving the palestinians to carry the can.
Lebensraum wasn't because of German 'over population' - as a young Russian soldier wrote to his commanding officer (paraphrased) 'comrade, these Germans have everything, houses, space, cows and orchards, why did they want our country'. The despicable Nazi policy arose mainly from Hitler and Himmlers crazed fantasies of the Herrenvolk living a idyllic rural lifestyle on the land, instead of cities which these two lunatics saw as debauched cesspits. They were not bright enough to understand that the industrialisation of farming had already rendered their delusional vision unworkable. And for the record, Palestine had a Jewish population for centuries before the great diaspora of the 30's and 40's. In 1930 the christian/Jewish pop was 26% of the population, jewish about 19%.
In a world of 1.8 billion with no commercial airlines and it killed between 50 to 100 million.
We now close to 8 billion people and people can travel to the other side of the world in 24 hours. The incubation period is upto 14 days and infectious in that time, with each person infecting 2.5 people each. The 14 day thing is the hammer, no one can tell who has it or not unless you screen everyone in a massive lock down.
With a large amount of baby boomers it has the ability to devastate a large percentage of the population, which dose all kinds of crazy things to the global economy. Housing for instance, a over supply of houses and a property price collapse taking the building industry amd timber prices with it. Tourisium collapse, food prices dropping.
There goes NZ's major earners. A major redistribution of wealth to the younger people but that wouldn't be for 6 months at least and prices of houses investments would have dropped by then.
It's a bit bigger than just the amount of people and the demographic that will die.
No, we haven't really had much info from China and what we do have we can not grantee is correct. It would be fair to say that what we have heard is largely understated.
They arent locking down 40 to 60 million people for the fun of it, they are taking this extremely seriously.
GBH. Comparisons with 1918 are flawed. They knew so much less back then about the behaviour of viruses and how to treat them. Your observation regarding the elderly being hit the hardest is valid. In brutal economic outcome terms that's not going to have anywhere near as profound an effect as would a virus that struck down the younger and healthy.
growing exponentially, greater than 15x increase in known cases in last week, killing 2-3%. Up to a week of infectious asymptomatic incubation. China can't stop this, and it's gotten out. I really hope you are right, but I am not optimistic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbrea…
NZ. Let's say 1.5 million people at risk with a 3% mortality rate. 45,000 people dead plus the standard death rate, basically the population of Invercargil or the Kapiti Coast. That changes the economy dramatically, then we can factor in less tourisium, building, imports, loss of jobs, stress on the hospital system, the list goes on and on.
Where do the people get treated and where do the Dr's and nurses come from when our hospital system is under stress at present.
Let's build a hospital in 5 days.....
A bit more than a storm in a tea cup now.
https://youtu.be/zGLBLHde5Zc
Expect an announcement from Jacinda soon, she can't afford to loose votes at present.
The reason markets are reacting to the news of the disease’s spread is because the markets (bonds, anyway) know just how fragile the situation continues to be.
Begin with German bunds (and schaetzes). The idea that the global economy ended last year on the mend was based upon a fundamental misreading of global yields (and curves). It was said, repeatedly, that the whole bond market at once warned of impending doom into early September, an all-or-nothing brace-for-impact siren.
And then just up and canceled it as if it was just a drill. That’s what “they” have been saying.
That’s not what really happened. Bond yields dating back to late 2018 (the landmine) started to signal rising probabilities all throughout the world for bad things; liquidity as well as negative economic pressures and consequences. What Richard Clarida recently called the twin bill of global headwinds and disinflationary pressures.
The depths of the yield plunge notated very serious risks along those lines. The backup in yields since isn’t the market giving up on them, it is instead bonds pricing relatively less of a probability of only the worse case. And only a little less negative. Link
Coronavirus conspiracies:
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-51271037
Only twice in NZ history has a first term government been voted out at the next election .... in 1960 & 1975 ... under the FFP voting system ...
... both times it was Labour who the public had enough of after just 3 years .... can we make it a 3'rd kicking to the kerb of a first term Labour Government ?
.... let's do this ...
They have done heaps:
Conned a bunch of voters
Paid Winnie his electoral tithe in the form of a few embassies, and a big fund for his mates.
Cancelled tax cuts
Bribed students
Created more working groups than I've had hot dinners.
Ignored the results from nearly all the working groups.
Cancelled Oil and Gas
Cancelled roads
Covered up a range of issues
Went near Pike River.
Built bought a house or two
Planted Acquired some trees
Hugged some people (both in a good way and a bad way)
Increased rents
Made some grand statements.
Covered up some more issues.
Traveled lots to maximise their Carbon footprint.
Bagged out Trump until they met him then it became #Humblebrag
Un-cancelled some cancelled roads
and IMHO their greatest achievement. Claiming "The year of Delivery" was nothing more than PR speak that should not have been taken seriously.
That is a busy 2 years by anyone's standards - what more do you want?
Apologies, there are a few other things they have done:
- publicly ex-communicated a mayoral candidate from the party
- capped debt
- un-capped debt
- paused immigration (well maybe not the Govt, but a few planes couldn't land for a while due to the fog the other day)
- had a lot of misunderstandings
- had lots of cool pics with schoolkids.
- Forgot to turn up for the first vote
- Smiled and waved at the UN
- Made some very grand statements
- booked lots of meetings without even needing a Parliamentary calendar.
oh, wait, I also forgot - Delivered a baby.
Call me cynical, but the timing of the election announcement and the infrastructure spend that was announced but with no actual detail finally getting detail is pretty petty. Now I see as well there is an imminent announcement about Light Rail and the RNZ/TVNZ merger.
So two and a half years of nothing, and then a flurry of activity when their $200K+ jobs are on the line. Good-o. It's hard to see who actually benefits from a Labour government other than public servants and Wellington's landlords.
... still not a peep from the Anti Car Party ... after supporting Julie Anne Genter in her anti car crusade for 2 years , Taxcinda has given the Greens a firm slap in the face : we're building roads ... lots of them ... get over yourselves ...
3 years wasted ! ...
... the Gnats had the consents in place for their RONS ... So , the constructions could begin quickly , if Labour choose to unmothball them ...
The irony is , Miss I Hate Cars Genter will be right behind Grant Robertson when he makes his doozey of backflip , and restarts the Gnats RONS programme ... 2 and a half years wasted ...
... flip " the bird " to the Greens ...
Announcing infrastructure spend that they will not actually have to pay for - just 400million this year. After 2.3years sitting on their hands doing nothing the 12billion promised stretches so far into future it is totally meaningless. Like their other all-mouth-no-trousers promises on kiwibuild, billion trees.
See Mish Talk on line. Flights out of Wuhan are continuing. There is no “lockdown”
I notice that yesterday the Minister for Health announced to an utterly unquestioning press (as usual) that DHBs now have power (under what legislation??) to detain people re infection. So government just invoked emergency powers and no one bats an eyelid
are Wuhan flights cargo or people? Lacking the rule of law (connections and money trump all rules) means china can't control this outbreak. 2-3% death rate - which will increase when hospitals are overwhelmed by pneumonia sufferers requiring weeks of care means could kill 10's of millions in china alone.
So you want people showing symptoms to be able to roam freely and not be quarantined...glad you are not in charge!
"The Ministry of Health has asked Cabinet to make the virus a notified disease in a meeting on Tuesday. This would give public health officers the power to forcibly quarantine people suspected of infection."
'new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year' https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html
In the USA in 2017/18 it was estimated at 61,099. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
In 2018/19 CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Australians pulling people out of China area. On a last in, first out basis.
They will be quarantined on Christmas Island
Releasing 1million masks available in Australia
Travel to China being restricted.
This may have been what he was calling PM about yesterday.
https://youtu.be/vH-Yb392NtI
.
ANZAC Wuhan evacuation in the works - https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/world/australia-to-partner-with-new-zealand-for-wuhan-evacuation/
Kiwi teenager taken off a train in China with a high temperature and in hospital. His 2 or 3 companions have been put up in a hotel and I'm guessing not allowed to leave as they will be under observation.
From Discover on Google https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/kiwi-teens-taken-off-chines…
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