Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news we had a dairy auction overnight that was impressively resilient.
But trumping all other news, the US Fed has made an emergency, out-of-cycle rate cut. It has reduced its benchmark upper-bound by -50 bps to 1.25% solely on the basis of the "material risks" to the US economy that the economic effects of the coronavirus pose.
The immediate reaction hasn't been positive - it just seems to have reinforced the sense of risk. Equity prices are falling, benchmark bond yields have dived, and gold prices have jumped. These are clear risk-off signals.
Meanwhile locally, there has been another dairy auction overnight and the results are resilient. Overall they are down -1.2% in USD terms but up +0.3% in NZD terms. While food-service commodities like SMP (-3.2%) and cheese (-4.7%) fell, the large WMP product, that has more of a consumer base, slipped only -0.5%. Butter rose +1.0%. Volumes sold were on the low side due to the seasonal shift, but actually +7% higher than the equivalent auction last year.
Back to the international situation, Wall Street is in retreat again, down -2.5% so far today and this was despite a spectacular rise yesterday. Markets sensed (or had inside information) that the US Fed would make some kind of policy move and jumped +4.5% at yesterday's close. That positive vibe lasted until the Fed announcement, then it has been downhill again. Since the start of February, the overall decline is now -6% and in the past two weeks it has been more than -10%.
There were no surprises in European or Japanese data overnight. European equity markets rose about +1.1% while Tokyo fell -1.2%. Shanghai was up yesterday by +0.7% and Hong Kong was flat. The NZX50 posted a strong rise yesterday, the ASX200 a lesser rise.
In Australia, the RBA cut its policy rate by -25 bps for the same reason as the Fed, and markets are now expecting another cut in April.
Rate cuts by central banks at this time seem odd. The policymakers there must know that the global economy is facing a supply shock and they are acting as though it is a demand shock. The world economy is suffering because China stopped to tackle the virus threat, not because consumers stopped spending. That is only an after-effect. Any economics student can tell that rate cuts are very unlikely to have any influence in a supply shock situation. All they are doing with rate cuts is reinforce the sense of foreboding, making the economic effects on demand worse. However, central banks seem to be in a herd mentality at present and it would not surprise if the RBNZ chimed in with its own cut.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. There are now 12,163 cases outside China, a rise of +1402 overnight as the numbers jump in South Korea, Italy and Iran. A week ago that outside-China number was 2930 so it has quadrupled in a week. New Zealand seems to be doing an excellent job of keeping the virus out.
Even though cases in China have stopped growing, the economic impacts are still huge. Now observers are thinking that China growth may go negative in Q1-2020. That would be world-shaking. And its move to close its borders to protect from reinfection won't help either. Interestingly, if there is one place where they don't have it under control, it is now Beijing.
Meanwhile in Australia, the number of building consents issued in January was -10.5% lower than the same month a year ago. This means that in 18 of the previous nineteen months, there has been a decline. Compared to January 2018, building consents are down by -36%. This trend is all to do with apartment consents and their steep decline.
The UST 10yr yield is now under 1.01% 1.04%, a record low and lower by another -6 bps overnight and taking the weekly fall to -30 bps. Their yield curves are jerking around today. The 2-10 curve is more positive at +29 bps. Their 1-5 curve is much more negative at -14 bps. and their 3m-10yr curve much less negative at -8 bps. This is a market in the middle of confused transition, rather than giving signals. The Aussie Govt 10yr is unchanged at 0.76%. The China Govt 10yr is also unchanged at 2.80%. The NZ Govt 10 yr is actually higher overnight, up +4 bps to 1.05%.
Gold has jumped today, up another +US$47 to US$1,645/oz. And this is a major move back to the 'risk-off' settings it had mid last week.
US oil prices are little-changed, now just under US$47.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is also at under US$52.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today stronger by +½c at 63 USc. On the cross rates we are softer at 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmer at 56.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is back up at 68.3.
Bitcoin is lower, now down -2.0% since this time yesterday at US$8,686. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
159 Comments
Over night repos over subscribed - https://twitter.com/spomboy/status/1234843660648435713?s=20
Stocks Sag as Fed Cures Coronavirus by Cutting Rates ½ Percentage Point
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/03/stocks-sag-as-fed-cures-coronavirus-b…
Here is how it spreads in complacent old NZ
I am on a 5 acre block near Silverdale Auckland, ordered a tanker load of water 3 weeks ago that arrived today, chatting away with the delivery guy who was suffering from hangover after being out with his mates yesterday, got to the subject of Coronavirus when he casually mentions that 2 weeks ago he paid for his father to come back to NZ for a holiday and last week his father had to go into hospital as he was sick, with Pneumonia???
he came into the country on China Airlines flight.
I stepped right away from the guy and when he left i did as much as i could do take precautionary measures without touching anything or breathing on anyone else.
This guy visits at least 5 different remote families a day delivering water, has done for the last month.
What are the chances.????
I will let you know......
Turkey bombs Syrian convoy, waiting for Russian responce.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-bombs-syrian-military-convo…
A lot of bad history between these two nations in this region. Appreciate currently not a funny situation but around the time leading up to the second Russo - Turkish war 1877/8, and old codger asked in the House of Lords “If Russia should invade Turkey from behind, would Greece help?”
we could have a upheaveal of leadership in the middle east. iran will not control the coronavirus so it will spread . it is already starting taking out leaders in iran (age)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/02/middleeast/iran-coronavirus-supreme-…
Because some people are selfish and oblivious or uncaring of the harm they will do (particularly common among Chinese from personal experience). And govt is too stupid/lazy/homicidally negligent to institute mandatory quarantine for all arrivals and pervasive testing of people with sniffles.
This is well worth a listen.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018736344/cov…
Clear, rational advice and explanation from an expert
Definitely an expert and covered the subject well for the general public. Thanks RNZ. When Chris was questioned on possible complacency, I think the word was mistake, of an engineered version of a SARS type virus he refused to take this as an option and also ruled out a crazy person potentially releasing it due to there not being a vaccine appearing already...... Very clear indeed!
40 known cases in australia, but reality will be several times that. ~1 in 100000 infected. With just 10000 coming into NZ maybe we got lucky. Bigger danger is arrivals from hotspots - Iran, China, Korea, Italy etc - not quarantined, tested or even tracked. Insanely, homicidally, negligent. Seems pretty certain that Indonesia and Egypt have huge outbreaks given travelers from each are showing up infected. Govt asleep at the wheel with regard to ensuring this doesn't doom us (likely to kill more in NZ this year than the bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima). They are dithering, doing almost nothing to prevent or mitigate it.
BiL got back from overseas on Work trip last week. He only had 4 days leave, so asked how important it was. Immigration rang his Company to speak about the isolation and related risks of not doing it. Company said once he used his leave, he would be on leave without pay. End result - he was straight back to work.
Point being, often it is not the individual that is the problem.
Mandatory isolation, means mandatory pay. Companies won't do this out of the goodness of their hearts. So up to Govt to either pay the employees on the companies behalf or enact legislation forcing the company to pay.
Singapore recently prosecuted three for not complying with home self isolation - one of whom was sent back to China (I recall all three were Chinese but I've lost my link to re-check -it was a you tube Singapore tv news item).
How did they catch them out? They make random home checks and phone calls. Do we?
How good is self isolation anyway? Surely other family members come and go?
I was self isolated last year as I was exposed to measles. The public health nurses claimed there may be random visits from doctors/nurses and phone calls. They called every day to check I was still at home, but there were no visits. They said there would definitely be visits from doctors if I started showing symptoms.
Interestingly though my wife would just come and go out of the house, which the public health nurses said was fine. If the virus is super infectious, I suspect self isolation won't help unless you live alone.
How does one really self isolate after getting off a plane? Our neighbour for example came back from China last month to self isolate. No masks on the family, gets thru airport and gets Uber to house then off down to get supplies and takeaway to start the SI......
Taxi drivers were complaining of this last month saying if they made a fuss their job could go.
You missed Japan, France, Germany, Spain, Singapore, US, and Hong Kong from your list.
Might as well add Australia, only 39 confirmed cases, but confirmed cases is just the tip of the iceberg. It will be much more widespread than the subset of people who a) have been tested, b) didn't get a false negative
"Two weeks and two days ago South Korea had 30 cases. Now it has 5,186. Of that, twenty eight people have died, which sounds not-too-awful til you realize that it’s a two week lag to death (or even three), and 28 out of 30 is a 93% mortality rate. Except, of course, it isn’t. It means South Korea had far more cases two weeks ago than they realized. It’s the same for Italy and Iran. How many other places are about to leap forward"
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/03/governments-say-its-safe-but-planes-ar…
If we are lucky and manage to prevent the epidemic sweeping NZ then it will take a year or two for vaccines to arrive. If we are (deservedly given govt inaction) unlucky then there will be essentially no functional medical system in NZ for coming year - as they will be swamped as soon as there are more than about 0.01% of population infected. Not a good time to have babies - so only fundamentalists and other idiots will make babies.
theyre trying to stop the financial system imploding (or more specifically delay the implosion)
which is in everyone interests if you still want supply chains to work…
Otherwise its wave goodbye to living standards as we know it … and No one has every voted for lower living standards
Question is whether it's possible to avoid economic cycles (including the clean-outs) as they've been trying, or whether it only makes things worse in the long term while enriching asset holders. Borrowing growth from the future, leaving the future folk poorer.
Other question is whether it actually does create any benefit.
but this isn't a normal 5 or 10 year cycle (or clean out..)
this is the obvious end of 50 years of credit creation losing its ability to deliver (fake) growth
its the only tool left in the shed
leverage the future, until the present (aka ..the current future) actually stops growing in size
then forward bets are obviously worthless
"Any economics student can tell that rate cuts are very unlikely to have any influence in a supply shock situation"
They only know what they're taught, David. Same goes for those who believe; it's the modern religion (and about as faultity-based as the last mass-held one, interestingly).
The problem is the debt overhang - people are simply committed and their commitments are reliant on the churn carrying on churning. Thus the need to relieve the load on them - but clearly even principal-only repayment will be a problem, and many will go to the wall with cascading knock-ons.
The world economy not growing and shrinking (ie -ve growth) is what we need to see to tackle the Climate Emergency. Has benefits of cleaner air, as we are seeing over China, clearer streets, as we are seeing in Venice. We need positive ways to deal with debt that people hold.
Disclaimer: This is not a prediction. It’s me exploring scenarios to base business decisions on.
Friday 28/02/2020 1367
Saturday 29/02/2020 1998 45%
Sunday 1/03/2020 2579 29%
Monday 2/03/2020 3404 32%
Tuesday 3/03/2020 5176 52%
Today 4/03/2020 6285 21 %
The first column is the COVID-19 cases at about 7.30 am (NZDT). Numbers are Total World less South Korea, China and those on Cruise Ships. The next column is the percentage increase from the day before. The Tuesday numbers were at 10.00am.
There are lots of confounding factors but a simplistic extrapolation from those few data points suggests we will be at 12,000 after 7 days. (Saturday to Saturday and assuming 30% increase per day compounding). That’s a 6 fold increase over one week. Extrapolate at that rate for an additional 3 weeks gives you about 2.6 million (end of March).
Infected number for European countries, such as Germany, France and including Spain (Ten countries) went from 113 to 571 in the four days from Saturday to Wednesday. That’s 50% day on day.
It may be the early figures are picking up clusters. Probably. But some of the cases likely highlight more clusters, of which there may be heaps, then more, until there are lots. Soon. Very soon.
These numbers are from this site:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda759…
Most people just don't 'get' exponential growth curves. Even though numbers are still relatively small it is clear that with current consistent 10x growth every 2 weeks (for about 2 months now) the whole world (other than places that manage to nip it in the bud through quarantining now) will be devastated in next 3 months. And because it is so fast this will be like a 19th century plague - essentially no-one will have access to medical treatment due to overwhelming numbers. It will kill up to 5%. What the hell can we do to shake the govt out of their blissful complacency and get them to take 100k+ dead seriously?
Maybe they're not complacent. Maybe they, I think quite rightly, see it as inevitable. Therefore the strategy is to allow it to develope at a hopefully slower pace so as not to overwhelm. Simply allowing some to slip through the cracks would seem to work.
The alternates are to let it run or test every hypercondriac that walks through hospital doors as some on stuff would have.
Agreed. The maths suggests it’s likely to go from thousands infected to hundreds of thousands or millions in a few short weeks. Whether is a weekly doubling or a 6 fold weekly increase, the big jumps seem likely to be in winter. May be better to be autumn than the depths of winter. Either way it seems unlikely a vaccine will be available, at least one I would be prepared to use.
Pandemic, the game. Son was telling me a few years back he used play an online game called Pandemic. The difficult bit was to wipe out Madagascar being an island. Covid-19 has lots of the 'winning' characteristics. I’m just hoping the politicians and MOH officials are playing Pandemic (the game) at morning tea time.
Yes, this looks like a smart play, its almost inevitable that it'll do the rounds in the next 2-10 months, so more than likely you'll be exposed to it.. Certainly once I get past a couple of work objectives that require me to be physically present i'll be heading out and about more, and if I happen to get it then so be it, I won't be taking any extra precautions to avoid it. Will be able to work from home mostly, and Boss has already said he'll keep paying any permanent staff that have to self quarantine.
The covid19 mortality predictions of int.co commentators for NZ are progressively becoming less dire as doubts develop about the reliability of extrapolating outcomes from teeming metropole to comparatively uncrowded and hopefully now more transmission aware small island state NZ. Even allowing for blatant CCP information manipulation there are grounds for cautious hope that the Chinese containment efforts are making progress and may ultimately be successful, outside Beijing at least.
Diamond Princess is a good example as infection has nearly run its course:
706infected, 6dead, 600 still active, 100 recovered and 36 still critical (danger of death). Given 2-4 weeks it takes from infection to death there is nothing in this data to give cause for optimism. With good hospital treatment they got 1-2% die. With no treatment most critical patients (~5%) will die.
Is it a good example though ? Densely crowded during the transmission phase, door to door delivery of food prepared and distributed under who knows how stringent hygiene and in respect of those who contract it, a population heavily skewed towards vulnerable fossils.
South Korea was already unable to admit severely afflicted patients at just 0.005% rate of infection - they died for lack of treatment. Your chances of randomly getting in that first 0.005% are only about 1 in 10000. Death at home drowning in mucus awaits about 1 in 20 NZers this year if our appallingly useless govt doesn't pull finger.
Scary stuff article about complacency in NZ:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/119973702/coronavirus-the-sy…
So if the proposition is that everyone with a high temperature should be tested for covid and say there are 2500 of the 3500 GPs in NZ seeing patients every day in NZ and a quarter have an elevated temperature, that's 6000 tests per day, 40,000 a week. Additional to all the other lab testing testing being carried out. Not physically doable I suspect and the reason for the triage question about travel or exposure to people who have been in infected areas.
Wellington alone with around 10%of the population supposedly has capacity to do 200tests a day at the moment. So maybe 1-2000 a day for country? It is better than nothing and in any case will desperately need to be scaled up ASAP. South Korea can do 10000 a day, with 10x our population. We have to start testing as many symptomatic people as possible to find unknown clusters and to have any hope of containing it.
Testing testing, testing.
The narrow definition of the virus that MoH use is an issue.
Seems science is being confused with administration/political objectives.
After this is over, these decisions and approval signatories must be reviewed & accounted for.
It's important to test widely, so we know we are not missing cases, it's important to test those presenting to test (maintain the trust of the population, their trust in the system), this encourages compliance in all (remove road blocks to community compliance).
This is MedCram great background
https://youtu.be/XjEacUyp4vY
This is next strain.
Shows the genetic family tree of the virus, and data player showing transmission/flows across countries.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov
We have three issues.
1. Population health reducing suffering & death. Get the R to
Peak prosperity guy.
Pulling in economics & finance too.
Or not, in the case of long term buy and hold investors. NZX volumes traded yesterday were modest. Dump and run activities of the demented reef fish set and the small leveraged panic team get the headlines in our shock and awe MSM but market veterans have seen it all before and most just ride on through, sticking with their long term strategy.
15 new cases of coronavirus this morning in new south wales,
woman in her 50s has become the third locally acquired case of coronavirus in Australia - a sign the virus has begun spreading in the Australian community.
Overnight, the total number of coronavirus cases in NSW rose to 15, as NSW Health released the details of five flights to Sydney that carried passengers later diagnosed with the virus.
Meanwhile, 40 staff from Ryde Hospital have been quarantined after coming into contact with a doctor diagnosed with COVID-19.
The 13 doctors, 23 nurses and four other healthcare workers from Ryde Hospital were identified as close contacts of the 53-year-old doctor and are in home isolation, NSW Health said.
i hope they get under control, they could spread it here with the amount of flights we have back and forth
https://www.smh.com.au/national/woman-catches-coronavirus-in-australia-…
One week drop from all time highs and the fed panics, not the best response - most rational investors would see a sharp 10-16% decline as a buying opportunity based on a fear based market reaction
It's a mistake for the Fed to react like this near all time highs, all they have done is reinforce other peoples concerns,
The next rally will likely take out the highs and be quite quick, its the fall after breaking the highs and running out of steam that they should be worried about
The company I am consulting for, a multinational in over 100 countries, stopped all but critical international travel 4 days ago. 5 employees I've been working with from Japan were called home early yesterday. I'll be heading home in a couple of days, and given I have to come through Dubai I wonder about the chances I pick it up on the way through.
The average Kiwi's still thinks we aren't at that much risk. Preparedness is starting but a realisation that we are knocking on the flu season with a Wu Flu at the door isn't factoring yet.
We had one kid with the sniffles last week 3 days at home, another today. We have the ability to keep them home many do not. Two weeks ago one of the kids had a visit from a Chinese group at school after they had a two week lock down.... was two weeks enough???
Read the comment that it's all in apartments. A series of bad series about apartment buildings in the last year or so has everyone running scared. Likely demand has disappeared, hence no developer wants to build them.
Me thinks they started importing Chinese "dofu pi" construction (translation = tofu skin, referring to using tofu instead of concrete!).
So Pragmatist, am I still a fool with a big ego for predicting 2 days ago "I cannot see any reason that would lead central banks to react differently than lowering cash rates to upcoming problems"
by Pragmatist | 3rd Mar 20, 8:38am
Do you struggle to get your ego through normal doorways?. Your prediction is yet to happen, nobody has lowered the cash rates yet. So perhaps you should stop patting yourself on the back and crowing like a fool.
Not quite - net $43.75 billion injection today from yesterday - graphic evidence
Does anyone else see inflation on the horizon because of this? Reduced supply means higher prices? One of the reasons our current low interest rates haven't impacted inflation so much is because the price of a lot of everyday consumer goods came down at the same time as house prices rose. Will we see the prices of consumer good start to rise again, as we aren't receiving them so much from china anymore?
And we all know what happens to interest rates when inflation rises...
I'm seriously confused by the central bank response here.
I am expecting them to ignore inflation if it spikes. Why? If anyone raises interest rates it will collapse finance and property markets.
The problem will be when price of goods spike and nobody can afford the basics. Then it's all on, cost of living protests followed by political turmoil. We live in interesting times...
Exactly so.
I've been trying to explain for years, that such was inevitable. Just what the trigger would be, I couldn't predict, but the growth-requiring global ponzi was always going to come up against the physical global limits. If you counted it correctly (draw-down counts, pollution counts) we've been de-growthing for a decade (and arguably for 4-5 decades). The split is the widening debt and forward-bet collection, vs the depleted planet. Whether that results in inflation, stagflation, deflation or outright collapse, probably depends on how long mass-belief can be massaged.
Good point. If production of 'everything' slows or stops for ....say 3 months....what will the result be. What if its 6 months? Will deflation happen? Lets face it if the populace doesnt go to work we are going to be broke bastards.
Will this effect food production? Will the pickers be there to pick the apples and kiwifruit. We have to fly them in....
Will the staff be there on our meat processing chains? Get one crook, will they all go home?
Aww we have a lot to think about.
Absolutely. We also have all that money printing sloshing around which was meant to stimulate but instead blew up asset bubbles. As the bubble bursts, this will flow out into general inflation - it has to go somewhere.
And the extra whammy is that there is no ability to control inflation by putting up interest - too much debt.
Throw in production cuts and we have the perfect storm.
All because of can kicking.
IMO I can see inflation for some items and deflation for others based on scarcity.
For instance, if no body wants to go out, then hotels, travel, fuel, entertainment will all deflate, locally produced food that has lower export demand will deflate, as the middle class gets squeezed and jobs are lost, non essential items will deflate.
Some items sourced from overseas will inflate as our dollar devalues and only for high demand items and only until production and shipping reverts to normal
Be careful saying 'normal'.
Since WW2, we've been running a temporary regime - exponential growth within a bounded system. It has been running down since 1970, and running on unrepayable debt since. There were readjustment staggers (like '73, 87, 08) but no way can endless growth be 'normal'. The last doubling-time beats you every time.
A worst case scenario PM’s will go through the roof to the point that central Governments may either ban it’s ownership or confiscate it - if inflation becomes rampant fiat currencies will become worthless, that’s where crypto’s and PM’s have their place in protecting ones wealth by getting it out of the system.
OCR cut may not help in current scenario. Despite Fed cutting rate by big 0.5% still stock market dived and if it continues for next few days will be real bad.
If corona Virus is not controlled / solution found than it will get worse and year 2020 may see recession of the worst kind as now not much left but to enter negative territory.
Time to wait and watch as anything is possible. Time to hold on to buy any asset be it stock or property unless one has deep pockets.
0.2% if you can get good hospital treatment (actually ~0.15% for women, ~0.25% for men). 3-5x that if you can't (and you wont once hospitals are overwhelmed in first few weeks as they are becoming now in South Korea and have long since been in China) You will lose family members, friends and acquaintances if it sweeps through NZ. All activities involving close contact with strangers will cease for up to a year. Economy will be devastated, unless govt immediately steps up it's game by a massive amount to prevent it.
Look at stats for korea and then tell me how confident you are. 0.6% death rate to date - but takes 2-3 weeks to die, during which time number of infected goes up 10x or more, so koreas 34 dead is really from a time 2-3 weeks back where there were vastly fewer infected. That 0.6% is incredibly flattering/deceptively optimistic. Only 34 recovered in korea compared to 34 dead is terrifying (obvious hole in data). Singapore gives cause for optimism, but numbers too low for statistical significance.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
still pretty confident. just confirming we're talking about under 30 mortality rate correct? Or under 50 for that matter as per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demograph…. It's a pity the numbers aren't broken down for severity by age because the point you're putting forward is that as the hospital system gets overwhelmed mortality rates for severe and especially critical cases are going to skyrocket but my position is that if mortality rate differs by age then severity almost certainly does too (Data would be appreciated if you can find it), not to mention mortality is also correlated with various underlying medical conditions.
Fed keeps juicing the Repo money go-round to prevent the music stopping. This is like a meth junkie doubling down on his dose thinking its all going to "be ok". We are either going to have an almighty bust like the 30s, or mental levels of inflation like the period after WW1 that proceeded the 30s.
The second coronavirus case now confirmed in NZ.
Came in from northern Italy via Singapore - both known hot spots.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12313758
It doesnt matter now they define it. They are playing with percentages and grey lines for "communication" sake. If this thing really does have a replication rate of 2 - 4 as some research suggests, and a fatality rate of 2% (higher for older people) then it's coming around one way or another.
3 relatives I would put in a high risk category of struggling to deal with this if they get it - one already hospitalized. I'm holding my breath now. I dont mind funerals but I dont want to have to speak at them.
So for want of competent government response members of my family and tens of thousand of other kiwis are being doomed to die... I'm quite honestly crying as I write this. F**k these useless bastards who have inserted themselves into our governance when they lack any sense.
That's not the way to see it. No government has tried to create a sustainable, long-term good for their people, regime. The nearest any have come is when countries/nations are embargoed/ringfenced/at war - when, as per Cuba in recent years, some good governance has been exhibited.
Billions have been doomed to die, and that die has been cast, for decades (download and read Catton's Overshoot - then really weep). We're an overshot species, overshot enough to be trashing the planet, and rapidly at that. Where governments, the media, economists and most of the believing mass went wrong, is in thinking GDP was a valid measure, and that money would always be fungible for real stuff.
Turns out that was incorrect. Who'da thunk? But it means that your heroes on the oppo benches are no better than the current mob - and probably a shade worse.
Let's debunk this overshoot thinking.
From the school of the world being plentiful:
Joe Rogan with Aubrey de Gray
https://youtu.be/9-z0kglwpwo
And for those unfamiliar with stem cell treatments and the path they are taking us.
https://www.sens.org/
SENS Research Foundation works to develop, promote, and ensure widespread access to therapies that cure and prevent the diseases and disabilities of aging by comprehensively repairing the damage that builds up in our bodies over time.
We are redefining the way the world researches and treats age-related ill health, while inspiring the next generation of biomedical scientists.
Ham & eggs, take the time to listen to the Joe Rogan that position is debunked.
All good.
I wasn't going to comment on this subject, because I doubt my attitude will be well received. But this comment has baited me.
It seems the majority of the commentators here have fallen victim to the fear mongering of the mainstream media.
This is not a zombie apocalypse.
We are not all going to die (from this virus, anyway).
The elderly and those with reduced immune systems face the same danger they face every year with influenza. This is but another strain, admittedly one with a higher mortality rate. Please stop spreading fear and buying into the notion that the world is about to end. Be happy that for now, we have escaped that scenario. One day a generation of humanity wont be so lucky.
It's more nuanced than that.
Many see and feel "self inflicted wounds"
For example
1 do you think the nz virus definition is too broad, too narrow just right.
2 do you think testing is being done too much, too little or just right?
3 do you think that people with symptoms (but not travel history) who want to be tested, should tested.
4 do you think people that qualify for MoH quarantine should rather go to work because they have no sick leave?.
In dealing with the virus, What country would you like nz to be most like?
China
Iran
Italy
South Korea
UK
USA.
Singapore.
Australia.
Who would you prefer leading this crisis, current pm, or bill english?
Who has more experience, or can one learn on the job?
Not sure if that was a question to the room but I'm going to go ahead anyway. (going from my gut)
1. just right
2. just right
3. thinking not tested, but if there's capacity in the system then not violently opposed to testing
4. No, this definitely calls for govt action
5. Singapore (just think that country is incredibly onto it)
6. Bill English, if I can have him without the national party (who I have voted for in the past btw)
Last time i checked Bill English is not the Prime Minister, nor is he in any possible place to become one.
Maybe its time to realise that the man failed in two elections to become an elected prime minister, he's not coming back.
The past is the past, pondering about what would possibly be different today is a fools errand.
Those were the options at the time.
We can look back and see how previous decisions worked out.
The next election is with different people, even different from now. Who knows, several of the COL may come down with the virus.
Some of the parties may pull a panick switch pre election again.
What we can learn, is in times like now experience trump's "coming from nowhere" no experience.
It's the labour party machine that did the switcher roo last time, 5 minutes before the election.
Mind you they never won the popular vote, so who would have picked, or knowing voted for this, what we have now.
We are not all going to die, 'just' 2-5% of us. It's many times more infectious than flu, hospitalizes 15% of those that get it, 1-2% die if they get best treatment, but ~5% if they get none. Medical services are quickly overwhelmed; south korea's running out of resources with just .01% infected so epidemic death rate is toward upper end of that range. People I care for will die. NZ is now exactly where overwhelmed countries like Italy and Korea were a few weeks back, and unlike them we are heading into flu season. It's the last few doublings of the exponential that devastate, and we are only at the start of the dreadful curve.
To be fair 2-5% does sound scary as a headline figure (the annual mortality rate for NZ is 7.something per 1000 btw), and death of a loved one is death of a loved one regardless of how or when it happens (here comes the but), but the mortality rate is heavily tilted towards the elderly, especially the elderly with underlying medical conditions. At the risk of being callous, if this thing does rip through NZ, sure, some people are going to die sooner than they otherwise would, but in most cases not by decades, we're mostly not going to be burying our kids.
Yikes, you are flying well off the deep end. There is almost no scenario where the infection rates hit anywhere near what would be required to kill 2.5% of the population. As seen with China, if the spread of the virus gets out of control we will seen wide-scale quarantine measures put in place.
This will have massive implications (that a lot of people still seem to underestimate), but it won't kill 2.5% of the population. Please tone down the fear mongering.
Tone down the fear-mongering re virus by all means.
But the overshoot thing is too big and too late.
:)
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