Equities crash as fear overwhelms rescue plans; China facing -10% decline, but facing improved conditions; China port blocks ships; UST 10yr yield at 1.20%; oil and gold drop hard; NZ$1 = 57.6 USc; TWI-5 = 65.1

Equities crash as fear overwhelms rescue plans; China facing -10% decline, but facing improved conditions; China port blocks ships; UST 10yr yield at 1.20%; oil and gold drop hard; NZ$1 = 57.6 USc; TWI-5 = 65.1

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the NZ dollar is falling hard in the shadow of panic by professional investors on major stock markets.

Wall Street is falling sharply again this morning, with the S&P500 down -9% and falling in mid-afternoon trade. Trading was stopped for 15 minutes as an attempted circuit-breaker. But that didn't work. This yo-yoing (the S&P500 was up +6% the day before) won't continue. The trend is clear; the S&P500 is now a net -23% so far in February and -30% since the start of the year. The 'up' days are for mugs when the 'smart money' sells.

The enormous fiscal stimulus package proposed still isn't in place in the US with public policy action as confused on the economic front as it is on the infection-control front.

Bankruptcies of icon companies like Boeing now seem much more likely. The ripple effect will be huge.

American building permits and housing starts slumped in February from January and much more than the expected softness. But they were both still well above the year-ago levels.

Overnight, European stock markets fell about -6%. Yesterday it was less in Asia although closer to home the ASX200 fell -6.5%. The NZX50 Capital Index actually managed a tiny gain on the day, although earlier big rises dissolved as the day closed.


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In China, electricity consumption dropped by -8% in the first two months of 2020. Changes in China’s energy consumption are closely watched as a gauge of the country’s economic conditions. Economic activity could contract -10% in Q1-2020, but that now no longer seems out of place with what is going on in major first-world countries.

But it is clear that, slow as it is, many Chinese cities are opening again and some sense of normality is starting to return.

However, a Chinese port has closed entry to ships from nine countries including Japan, Singapore, the US and Europe in fear of virus re-infection. New Zealand isn't on the list but of course ships that service our Chinese trade almost all include port calls from those countries in their routes.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 212,00 of officially confirmed cases and rising by the hour now, up +65% in a week. There are now 171,000 cases outside China and European cases now exceed the Chinese cases. It of course much worse than that because 86% of the Chinese cases have recovered whereas the European number is well below 10%. Also rising very fast is the USA (7324) exploding +40% IN ONE DAY! (and up from 5204 this time yesterday.) It looks like the Americans have the worst control measures in place of anywhere. The global official death toll now is almost 9000. New Zealand has eight new cases of Covid-19, all overseas travel related. There are four new cases in Auckland, one in Christchurch, two in Waikato and one in Invercargill. This brings our total to 20 confirmed cases in NZ and all directly overseas travel related.

In Australia, fear is spreading with stockpiling rampant as confirmed cases rise +25% a day from a relatively small base. They are now up to 568 cases and it is in community spread mode.

The UST 10yr yield is again much higher today, up almost +34 bps from yesterday and now at 1.20%. With sharply higher long-term risks, investors want to be paid better, even for benchmark bonds. Rate curves are still sharply positive as short pricing collapses. Their 2-10 curve is a lot more positive at +70 bps. Their 1-5 curve has also turned much more positive at +51 bps. while their 3m-10yr curve has ballooned out even further at +107 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +32 bps now at 1.38%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.78%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also very sharply higher, now at 1.47% and up another +22 bps in a day.

Gold is still yo-yoing and has tumbled to US$1,486 today, a -US$44 drop.

US oil prices have plunged to new depths today, down -US$7.50/bbl to just under US$20.50/bbl with the Brent benchmark just under US$25. That is a 20 year low in current dollar terms; inflation adjusted it is a 22 year low. Vanishing demand as major economies shutdown can't seem to be stopped.

The Kiwi dollar starting today sharply lower, down more than -2c to just 57.6 USc and a new eleven year low. On the cross rates however we are little-changed, now at 99.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also sharply lower at 53.2 euro cents and more than a -1c drop and that is a ten year low. That means our TWI-5 is now at 65.1 and also a ten year low.

Bitcoin is slightly softer today at US$5,231, a drop of -2.6% since this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

230 Comments

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Dow currently below 19K.

12-18 months before a vaccine is scalable. Make it 6-9 months if you like.
Do you have any idea what a Global economy that operates on a day-to-day basis will look like at the end of the time? No one really does. But the stock market is going to tell us....along with the price of all asset markets.
At some stage 'they' are going to let the markets go, and pick up what's left at the end. To do otherwise is the erroneous use of funds. 'They' haven't made the call to stand-back yet, but there are signs..( ie" what's being tried isn't and won't work).

21
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Indeed, all asset prices will be affected! This included housing. We have never seen anything like what is going on at the moment. If I was debt heavy then I would be looking at liquidating asap.... which I have done..... when we come through this our world will be very very different. Protect yourself and your family - this is not a normal downturn. Things will not be back to normal in 6 months time.

Yip watching the US share market tumble again overnight and volatility index climb back up into the 80's (which is much much higher than GFC levels), I'm not thinking this is going to be a short sharp correction - but that now we are positioning for something longer and deeper.

I think that's part of the issue. Too many people are debt and asset rich, and cash poor. Now everyone is selling up to get some cash for the hard times ahead, so everything drops, including gold.

The problem is Central Banks think the answer is just to print more money there buy fuelling the ‘ everything bubble’.

Auckland property just keeps going up in value
It’s written in the bible

Auckland property just keeps going up in value
It’s written in the bible

wear face mask.

government to order face masks and prepare to hand out two per ppl per week.

work from home if possible.

study from home if possible.

prepare to transform gymnasium into temporary group isolation hospital.

AUS will be over 1000 in next week.

if not dealt with hurry and determination and details, NZ's confirmed case curve will look like AUS and Canada's.

I've noticed the atmosphere or mood around Wellington has changed since yesterday. About half the people on the train, and now I'm starting to see people on the streets wearing medical masks.

Oil is just floating above $20 and it's very likely to go into the teens now. Reduction in demand with peak output is going to fill up the world's oil storage really quickly.

It's been interest watching the 10 year bonds too. When people fled equities to bonds they went down to 0.6% roughly. Now everyone is fleeing to cash they are up to 1.2%. Rules based funds and new traders who've never seen a market like this are creating chaos.

People seem to be a lot more afraid of the economic doomsday than anything the virus could do to them, as they should.

A run down memory lane: At one of RBNZ's MPS release conference last year, Orr stated a net negative savings rate in consecutive "good" growth years was 'not necessarily a bad thing'.

I have just seen two people crying on their phones in Wellington CBD. One was on the phone to America and talking about the virus, the other was crying about her Kiwi saver.

And yet, all the builders are merrily carrying on as if nothing is happening. My next door neighbour is a student house and the landlord just began a programme of renovation (desperately needed though, the weatherboards were rotting), so they currently have huge holes in the external walls. If a nationwide lockdown happens soon, that house is going to be exposed to the elements.

A couple of years ago I surprised that my client was still sleeping in his bedroom. The wall framing was open so we could access the scaffolding while the cladding, mineral fibre insulation and new plasterboard linings were being sorted out. It was more than a bit windy.

I'm not sure it's the case. There was a sudden halving of the number of people on the train between Tuesday and Wednesday. Today there were even less people. Although I'm not sure that it's fear but many companies telling people to work from home.

What this event shows is that the government running on low debt is highly useful. The rest of the overspending population almost drowning in debt, well we'll just have to see.

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There couldn’t possibly be community transmission. The virus knows our rules: only transferring from foreign people.

They’re Here: Negative UST Yields Finish Off The Collateral Case

UST yield curve

USD ratchets up as XCCY basis swaps indicate dollar funding stress while credit sensitive FRA-OIS spreads widen.

US Secured Overnight Financing Rate skyrockets past Fed Funds ceiling.

Hedge funds were fleeing corporate bonds for treasuries to use as collateral. The flight to that collateral is something else right now as it's forcing other parts of the market down.

NZX down 10 plus percent today good luck to anyone buying the dips it is going down to 6000 points soon.

Sam Stubbs will be out there buying. According to that last interview on TV, it's all just a hiccup and in 12 months time you'll kick yourself for not buying 'today'.

Ask to see his trades I am sure he will say no.

We are still living lala land with people think shares will be up soon.
It could be 5-10 years before we see to mess cleaned up.

@becnz, I am saying 15-20 years. A whole generation will grow up knowing nothing but depression of the financial kind.

who is Sam Stubbs?

sam stubbs,rogue fund manager,turned on his mates and became an honest man.

Trying to convince people that low fees are more important than rates of return isn't honesty.

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The Americans have the worst control measures?! Bizarre.

Here are countries doing worse: UK, France, Japan, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands. I could go on. All of these countries have a higher death to case ratio than the US, which means their testing has been inferior.

Nice try Rolling - come back in 2 weeks and USA will be a mess (but I think you know that). Trump has totally &^&@# up
"As calls mount for making more tests available, president says CDC’s testing system would ‘always be inadequate and slow for a large scale pandemic’"

"People are dying who have never died before".

UK actually has quite a low case per million. Only 39. Yes there are issues with testing but that is true of many countries. The UK case per million population is lower than many other countries... here is a sample... Greece (40), Singapore (54) , Israel (50) , Cyprus(48) , China (56). They have moved incredibly quickly on financial and legislative measures to prevent economic carnage (obviously we have no idea how that will play out) and they are actually moving quite fast in terms of the lock downs. It looks like they aren't because they are using a team of behavioural psychologists and communication theory to manage the crisis on their advise (again, too soon to call on the success of that).

Lol nice one.

Say something of substance. Make the case that Trump and the US have uniquely messed this up. You can't because it's nonsense, there are plenty of worse examples, including New Zealand. We are only fortunate enough to be much less connected to the world than the US. But our measures are nowhere near as strict.

I was just watching a video of busloads of medical staff returning to Beijing from Wuhan. They were being given a hero's welcome back after victory was declared over the virus in Wuhan.

The Chinese do seem to have a better attitude to the crisis than the West has. The West doesn't seem to be very robust and needs to pull itself together. Let's just roll up our sleeves and get stuck into this. No more panicking, just leave your investments as they are and concentrate on the job at hand.

Thanks communism.
Chinese scientists destroyed proof of virus in December
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-scientists-destroyed-proof-of...

From 2007 - "The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2176051/

There's a clip circulating from a US current affairs show in the early 2010's where they were interviewing a scientist who raised this exact issue too. He spoke about the risks of these markets and how it was only a matter of time until a virulent virus capable of being transmitted to human's arose from one.

The outbreak looks like it might result in China and the CPC becoming stronger. The failure to shutdown the markets is no doubt a lesson that has been learned. The people will happily accept more draconian measures of enforcement and surveillance from now on.

China is culpable.

It's possible to be culpable and still win.

Nahh, China may be able to make it's self look glitzy on the outside but the majority of it's people are still living in poor cramped and squalid conditions. Go look at the recent documentaries that are surfacing related to the Coronavirus.

The wet markets were shut down during SARs but reopened 6 months later due to the billions of $ to be made. Suggest watching this video which explains about the origins of the wild animal markets and so called "ancient medicines".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPpoJGYlW54&t=382s

I worry that 6 months after this is all over the wet markets will open again and see another outbreak 10 years down the track.

I have been posting this article (and others) on social media for weeks, to warn that this was SARS2 and that for all we know, the death rate will be as high. The current rate of mortality from the 93000 closed cases is running at 10%. We release medications on the public with way smaller sample sizes than that and yet, we are all still being told the death rate is 1%. The WHO underestimated the death rate publicly during SARS and then revised it massively after the pandemic ended. People have been attacking me and telling me i'm delusional (not so much this week though). Admittedly, I mostly just gave up trying to warn people. But I have been here, everywhere i can, begging people to prepare. To accept what we are facing and think of our vulnerable.

The world governments do not take these extreme steps because of hysteria. They know how potentially devastating this will be.

11
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The problem with Western society is half want to recover from this, half want to see it crash and burn.

I think we all want to recover from this. Only 1% want to resume the status quo, 1% want to create something better and the other 98% just follow as long as the bread and circuses, the baubles and trinkets keep flowing.

@ Zach Smith .......The Chinese are not the world’s most transparent supplier of sensitive statistics, so let us not get too excited.

If you would like to read some fan fiction about exchange rates:

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/103949/roger-j-kerr-sees-china-aus...

Yes, I think one Kerr will be a taking a sabbatical from any more articles for a very long time.

Question for those out there smarter then me, i am about to get paid a house settlement. What do? transfer to kiwibank? buy USDs? withdraw from bank and bury it?

(1) I'm sure it will go through, but in due course, Settlements are going to stop (credit is going to dry up), and
(2) Just do with it what you had planned. It won't make much difference, because any substantial change in The System will catch any actions you or I might make. (eg: Gold confiscation 1933 etc)

I was planning 30-60-90 days term deposit but that is now effectively worth nothing.

I'm afraid "worth nothing" is the best deal you're gonna get for the next 12 months or so. Not losing any of your money sounds like an amazing deal in this environment.

Lucky you - great timing!

Locking in any interest rate now is better than no/negative interest.

I'd first secure an alternative place to live (probably buying down in price - offer cash now and just see how good a deal you'll get) and put most of the balance into a TD, for a longer period (18 months?) - keeping at least 3-6 months of living expenses in an on-call account.

No! Kiwibonds are the only game in town!

WAIT. Leave it in the bank. Wait, and it could be for a while. Don't succumb to those trying to sell, and some will make strong pitches. WAIT.

Just know this - when you put money in the bank it’s no longer yours, it’s the banks.

Stick some in an Aus account maybe? They have deposit protection up to $250k. For now anyway. Might have to go live there or work out how you cab get an Aus address to open an Aus account in your name. I've got a settlement coming too and this is part of my plan, but agreed... where to put cash???

I was thinking about this, but opening Kiwibank account could be the NZ version of this risk hedge? If SOE freezes/takes away your funds people are going to be going mad max. Cant decide if im being hysterical here.

The AUS government is more indebted per capita than the NZ government. I'd be surprised if they are able to honour that deposit protection in the event of major bank collapse(s). None of the old rules will apply if the world financial system collapses. AUS government (indeed all governments) more likely to just try and ensure people have food. Think the Great Depression.

You could also try splitting it up between KB, TSB, SBS and Heartland. Bit scary out there now I agree.

small banks not super well capitalised as i understand?

Banks have been telling us a different story....

It's important to know what happens in a finance crisis. Banks (both retail and central), will tell you everything is running smoothly and they don't see any problems now and forever. The stronger the insistence, the more you should worry.

Because tomorrow they may freeze all deposits and trigger the OBR or some other grab of moneys. The same thing has played out everywhere I remember there being a financial crisis.

You can put a max of $500k in any issue of KiwiBonds, which is the most secure place to park your money. You can put in another 500k under a trust.
A new issue appears when the OCR changes so if Orr cuts again you could do the same.
The interest rate in any issue is the same as the OCR.

You can put a max of $500k in any issue of KiwiBonds, which is the most secure place to park your money. You can put in another 500k under a trust.
A new issue appears when the OCR changes so if Orr cuts again you could do the same.
The interest rate in any issue is the same as the OCR.

Just heard from an ex hedge fund manager who has his wealth in US$ And bitcoin. A month ago was in treasury bonds, gold, bitcoin and us$.

I have some bitcoin. Not going to lie, price got smashed. But.... the collapse of the NZD has now meant it is rising steadily (in NZD value that is)

Crypto trading will be halted and the price will go to zero. You have been warned.

I am no expert on crypto but maybe if people dont have fiat money then how does one purchase it hence the price drops.

How do you halt crypto trading..turn off the internet? Get educated before such stupid statements.

At times like this, I am enormously suspicious of those who are dead certain how the future will unfold. Disaster always seems to bring them out. What happened to humility in the face of an enormous black swan? Call it grey if you like as this was predictable in theory but not in timing.

Same old advice holds true, stay diversified as you really have no idea what is to come. Make your own predictions and place some of your money accordingly, for sure, but never think you know it all.

Shanino
Great to see a bit of honesty regarding your current exposure to Bitcoin - most posters refer to great investment decisions but these seem to be selectively in hindsight.

Playing the long game. Panic selling has always stung me bad. My long games always turn to profit in the end. Worse case scenario its a big mistake and I have a large tax refund, plenty of cash and I'll be buying stocks and gold for cheap. Now if the property market collapses yeah I'll be hurting a bit.

Those hedge fund managers fell to the ground at a good speed in 2008.

Nothing more than a pub yarn.

Problem is, so is much of what is posted on this site.

Valid.

Split it across multiple banks and accounts at LEAST in NZ. If the OBR get's triggered if we have a financial crisis, it may be a percentage or it may be a set value per account (if it is a percentage, it won't matter, but it sure will if it is a set value per account).

I would also stick some in US$ (probably 20%), some in gold, some in bitcoin potentially (another 20%) as a hedge against fiat currency collapses.

Solid actionable advice, Thanks

...except for the BTC bit.

Yeah, I would put bitcoin as max 5%, if you are doing gold as well, 15% at least in gold.

Split it up - this is definitely not the time for big bets or eggs in same basket. Maybe 40% in bank, 10% speculating on US dollar, 30% growth fund (may not be the bottom but definitely buying somewhat low), 20% bonds?

Wait until the bank is paying you to borrow.

14
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Here we go again.....Samoa has first suspected of Covid virus case, albeit to a visitor from Auckland.
I expressed my disappointment at the time that Jacinda didn't close the borders to all by exempting Pacific Islanders, and that was a blatantly political decision in an election year. Well, I'm sorry Jacinda, this virus is more important than politics.....shut the border to Pacific Island traffic right now.

14
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The Pacific Islanders should close their borders.

Totally agree - The Pacific Islands are really going to struggle once it arrives there.

Every country will struggle
Also who believes the below figures
Italy: 60 million pop cases 35713 deaths 2978
China: 1.4 billion pop cases 80800 deaths 3237
Italy will over take China in deaths in next 24 hours

Me think China has lied about the actual number of infected and deaths big time. The information about the confirmed infected and the mortality rate is correct i think, just that they did not actually recorded the death of everyone who has died from the SARS virus.

@ believer .............. so you dont believe China ?

Dont worry , not do I

The Chinese are not the world’s most transparent supplier of sensitive statistics, so let us not get too excited.

Particularly to a few depressingly unkind posters below.

Bribing, cheating and lies, lies, lies... Is the name of her game. Her 12b package is a socialist package $25 to people who don't work?? Go buy a couple of bottles and c u at election time.

Hopefully keeps them all drunk and not out looting and taking your stuff smart move as long as breweries stay operating.

How does one explain the thinking behind this editorial?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120374465/we-want-kind...

This isn't the mood of the community now today.

11
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" we want kindness not cruelty from our leaders"

Ah no. We want logical, practical, informed decisions that are in the interests of the people of NZ as a whole. And most importantly we want honesty and transparency - wait, wasn't that what they promised?

Just so we're clear this is aimed at all pollies not just labour, they're all cut from the same cloth.

That will be me (redundant) in a couple of weeks so I'm glad the govt has made that small change. Given I will be on $500/week (incl WFF) for family of 4, ALL my money will be spent each week. One tourism accommodation business made 85% of its workers redundant TODAY - going from 28 staff down to just 4.

Now is a time for helping everyone - including those who dont have jobs, or wont have them in a few weeks.

When did Mike Hosking arrive on Interest? Welcome with your soundly reasoned arguments and completely unstereotypical portrayals of anyone receiving a benefit.

Ha, so the balance is to people who do "work". That must be communism.

Hmm, do the "ruling" parties at any given time reflect the majority of society or does the majority of society reflect the ruling parties?

11
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but our only cases are visitors from overseas (probably because thats all that we are testing).

To have our community transmission noticed by Samoa first is embarrassing to say the least.

A result of effective 'don't test' policy we had in NZ up until a few days back. Can't find what you won't look for.

That's the contact tracing needed.

Find out who has been throttling back the testing and get them to desist.
If there are not enough kits or reagents tell us!

Time the PM depart stepped up.
Someone with credibility (any party) needs be out in front of this thing
Bring on Lianne Dalziel

Pretty sure that Jacinda doesn't control the borders of other countries.

But hey at least you're not 'playing politics'

Interesting papers coming out regarding Chloroquine as as a preventative and treatment for Wuhan flu. "Chloroquine is a cheap and a safe drug that has been used for more than 70 years and, therefore, it is potentially clinically applicable against the 2019-nCoV."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0?fbclid=IwAR2JbbZU_Hl7u...
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/14/1/14_2020.01047/_article

I saw that on an Oz website. The OZ article had it being used in conjunction with an HIV drug.
I used it for malaria while working in Africa in the 1980s until advice was that long term use had possible side affects inc vision issues plus resistance had built up. I had it for about 3 years and vision is still excellent.
Good to see some positive news.

MedCram had some interesting detail about this and how it may work, a few day back:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M

drink G and T's !!!!

Jagermister shots.

You think the Chinese care. They have spread the disease around the world. Now they blame the world. Just like Comrade Jacinda lies., lies, lies. Anyone thinks they are going to self isolate, they want to rush out to extract every last dollar from our country.

If NZ/AU shut down who is going to feed China think about it.
How many people in the west have diabetes I am guessing hundreds of millions.
This virus is going to have a field day in our countries compared to where it started????

Did someone spit in your mince pie?

RE the over-reaction to the virus... In Italy 475 people died on Wednesday. So i don't think our fears are unfounded.

Isn't that just normal for the flu.. /sarc

But why and how is this Corona virus so much worse that normal? Not a lot of scientific detail out there.

Italy only recorded 240 deaths from the current flu season, so at just on 3000 deaths so far it is already over 10x more deadly and its a long way from over

Different countries have different ways of recording flu deaths. If you were sick with something else and you die from pneumonia that was brought on by the flu you could be recorded as dying from the pre-existing condition. China had statistics like this apparently. It's logical in a way as many aged people die from pneumonia, the 'old people's friend', my mother, an ex nurse, used to say.

1) They produce a protein (protein N) which is thought to lead to prothrombinase activation (clotting). The theory is that this leads to fibrin deposition in the lungs. This is thought to cause fibrosis (scarring) and can result in long-term lung injury.
2) The other risk is this strain (SARS) promotes an influx and hyper-activation of immune cells which can lead to the immune system of the host creating a 'cytokine storm'. Basically it over-activates the immune system to the point where the immune system damages the viral. I don't think it's understood what causes this response in certain people. Presumably an interaction of host genetic factors and lesser environmental factors.

12
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Heard from a friend that arrived at Akld airport yesterday that there was no questions about where you are going or instructions on self isolation, no posters, pamhlets ..... nothing. The person in front of them was from the UK and was staying for 14 days and picked up some tourist brochures on the way through, do you think they are going to self isolate???

We are heading for a lockdown!!! Prepare now if you havnt already!!!

This is not a drill !!!

Agree. There seems to be a No 8 wire mentality about putting in place the procedures that the authorities list on TV.
For comparison I passed thru Sing on Jan 30th and they were installing temp cameras at all the arrival gates. The local newspaper had just announced that all families would receive face masks the next day (think it was 6 each). Already in the street face masks were common. At the airport they were very common.
That was a month and a half ago......

Auckland airport, now if the passenger had been the share price, 100% attention to detail.

That sounds word-for-word like what I heard on RNZ this morning at about 8.30, at least the situation's getting attention.

"Go early, Go hard" all butt covering spin. Rather sickening really.

"rather sickening", literally

Yes we are - within the next two weeks (taps side of nose with index finger) so get prepared.

The schools are the indicator as soon as they say shut we are all locked down with the army trying to enforce this.
I would say they will do it next 7 days due to being gutless and waiting so long to try and keep big business happy but in the long run it is going to cost taxpayers many billions.
We should have just stopped tourists and locked down weeks a go to keep on top of it but most people and banks 2 weeks ago were still thinking houses were going up this year.
The big question how fast will they drop now.

Army???

What are they going to do, point their finger at you and make gun noises?

10
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Surely, it's better than the airforce making plane noises and swooshing their arms?

My gut feeling is they were trying to hold out until school holidays. Then keep them at home through Term 2.

However I am hearing talk about finishing 1 week early. So I reckon you are right, expect havoc next friday.

Napier must have a case, my friend is a builder and they have just been told to drop tools and go home. I think he was working at the Airport but other builders working on a new packhouse have also been told to go home and self isolate.
He said they were told total shutdown coming, schools, etc

Do they have a long term plan? the wheels will come off if they start doing this and it cannot go on forever, you just have a pool of people who were never exposed and still vulnerable. The moment you unlock the gate it just starts up all over again.

I have Calici virus killing all the rabbits on the farm, hawks are loving it, killing a huge % makes one think about how dangerous viruses can be. I suspect this awesome drought is allowing Calisi to come so late in the season.

He just texted me to say he thinks two people came through airport and tested positive.

Honestly, I think we'd have to have a prolonged isolation / social distancing period (months/year(s)) if there's any chance to prevent us from being overwhelmed by viral cases. I guess it's almost inevitable that most people will eventually be infected but if we can draw this out as much as possible we'll at least limit mortality and morbidity.

With existing hospital capacity it takes 5-10years to work through whole population without overwhelming hospitals. That is a non-starter. Though might be as little as a year if just (deliberately) infect least at risk 60-70% to achieve herd immunity. Probably also a non-starter.
Options: Build up lower-quality emergency hospital capacity by say 3-10x (a sensible precaution that gives options for getting back to normal quicker) or can hunker down for 18 months.

Stuff think we are fine
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120374465/we-want-kind...

This is the business issue, suddenly a large % of working roster gone for 14 days.
This can happen a couple of times then they may get the virus.
- getting $ to these folk was what Tuesday needed address (like depreciation is going to help).

I am seeing business bar non employees from office.
Industrial sites have removed all non essential contractors.
A professional firm guy said last night he can put his 55 workers on WFH in an hour & expects to for next week..
Other firms going to WFH when first community transmission notified.

Where will our crisis leader emerge from?
- can be any political persuasion.
Any suggests as to who?

Middle of apple season in HB, will they send all the islanders home?

First option would be quarantine, while close contact tested, or they tested.
Work process will change to keep distance, make space, likely productivities will drop, jobs take longer.

not in the pack houses.

Ship them out in bins.

Maybe, if they especially want to jumpstart the spread of the virus to the islands.

apparently that was a false alarm at Napier, my mate told his wife who told mine. They had a meeting and they discussed a case coming throughNapier.

Is it a bad idea to switch from BNZ/Aussie banks to Kiwibank as of now?

At 1.0000 I was thinking about going the other way! Getting One Aussie Dollar for ever Kiwi rather than the 80 odd cents it was not that long ago might look good in due course.

It hasnt been 80c for nearly a decade

It's a good deal at the moment, and it is guaranteed.

I'd be moving some NZD to AUD ready to buy some companies from ASX.

Good thinking, although it may be a while, as Aust is looking at serious recession. I did the same thing throughout last year with US dollars to a US brokerage account. US markets 30% down and counting, and the NZD has tanked. Oh there will be some deep bargains ahead.

Yes I've been waiting for this for about 5 years now - have held foreign currency the last 6 years or so when NZD was at its strength (some TD's, some bonds, some shares, some gold). Ready to start bring some back in the next few months. Looks like NZD falling below 50c against USD in the near future.

Gold will go to US $800 and you have been warned for weeks.

Rubbish. Just look at the gold graph during the GFC. Followed the sharemarket down for a while then spiked hugely. When the trough of disillusionment sets in, gold is very likely to kick in and get well over all time highs I’d say.

Gold will only fly when helicopter money. Until that day, the way is down. Timing is everything.

Indeed timing is helpful, and I did suspect a correction coming.The markets were very inflated even a year ago. The virus and oil are only the catalysts for major correction. Gold was/is bound to have its day. It’s still up about 17% in a year.

Timing the market - now... no now .. wait now.. next year now... lol - Trump has announced helicopter money so you have already missed it.

VOR
Correct - gold seems initially go down with the share market crashes as margin traders scramble for get cash to meet their obligations. It seems the same for Bitcoin.

Must have missed your reasoning?

When fear is all around and people start to think there will be a depression, hard assets like gold become more valuable. Wait until news of the credit crunch happens, and people start to worry about their money in banks. Gold will spike. Simple as that.

The only purpose of Gold is to provide liquidity when there is none. News flash: there is none.

It will be sold.

It may be sold off initially, but people will want the hard asset that can act like money in zombie apocalypse times

Ray Dalio has been very bullish on gold - but looks like even he has been surprised by the recent severity of the share market fall/s.

Dalio’s probably surprised about how fast, but he’s been advising having some gold and his last book was all about cycles and he basically said we are due for a turn in the larger (once in a lifetime) debt cycle, not just the smaller business cycle. Last one was 1930s he’s said.

This is amusing that most people were arguing with me when I said sharemarkets were way overvalued, now people are arguing gold will do badly in the coming recession times.

I support you only .
The greed in the last 3 years has been huge pushing all assets except gold/silver sky high.
Wait till the greed hits gold and we sell on the up and watch that tank in 18months at 2500-3000 usd.
It is all one big circle if you have the abilty to see it.

Dont forget the astronomically high gold to silver ratio!

Incorrect. It is a preservation of wealth in times of uncertainty and a good hedge against inflation.

People with gold during depressions/recessions dont sell it, they just sleep well.

I think ill rely on 5,000 years of history than the increadibly vague nonsense youve been peddling over recent weeks.

There is no inflation. Only deflation. Good luck fam!

Youre cherry picking.

Any rebuttal to that preservation of wealth aspect i mention?

Gold is a preservation of wealth, as well as a hedge against inflation. Simple.

It’s that preservation of wealth people will flock to with gold, with some of what they have left. Super is taking a beating as we speak, with so much invested in shares. And they’ll be too scared to buy shares near the bottom, which is what they should do! I’ll be doing that.

Sell your house, buy gold, preserve your wealth.

Your gold is worthless if there is no stock on the shelves.

Yes but if you already have that stock you also have time in your side.

I will contibue to play the long game with PMs.

I agree, gold will become very popular, perhaps even its own bubble. People will sell off some paper gold (ETFs) initially, then those should spike again as it’s easier and will do better than stocks for a while.

Hardly. The only purpose of gold is the same purpose it has been used for for thousands of years.

As a store of value. When everything is collapsing and gold keeps it's value in relative terms, people will buy gold. If there is a financial crisis, mum and dads will freak out that their banks will collapse, so withdraw money. If money is being printed (and hence devalued), we will get mass inflation and people looking for a store of value.

Blobbies, Exactly. Gold will become a “mom and pop” investment again.

Mom and Pop will be smashed on the way down.

They will indeed. I hate in NZ and Aust that so many people got huge mortgages at very inflated real estate prices. That reckoning will be hard. That’s why I’ve been on here the past few years, trying to warn of that.

I am usually on the buy gold side. But have to agree, Mom and Pop do not have a good history of investing and are often the first to get smashed.

Even so, mom and pop investors are not needed for gold to go well above all time highs. I’d say the run to US$1800 will be fast when it happens

More so than the rental property?

The trouble with rental property is that a lot of people are leveraged to the hilt. Expect a lot of rental sales at declining prices.

Hmm... credit has been "printed" in massive doses for last 40+ years, the "money" has been devaluing for longer than that. Where's the mass inflation?

5000 years of "that's the way we've always done it" could be part of the problem, not the solution.

It is said that history repeats if we don't learn the lesson and cosmic intelligence will slap us upside the head harder and harder everytime until we do. "Economic" recessions/depressions, environmental issues, conflict, and now this, occurring more frequently and on a larger scale are the slaps we need to learn.

We have created an extremely distorted sense of value and values. When this is over do we opt to continue the way we've always done it or do we create something new?

The mass inflation has not occurred in the last decade because the printed cash has gone into assets, over inflating their prices. Prior to that we had real economic expansion, so the supply of money could increase and buy the same goods. There was more money, but more things being made for more people, hence a logical expansion.

In the last decade though, a 2 stream system has emerged, the financialised economy (where printed money ends up) and the real economy (where we buy/get paid/consume). People are now realising the financialised economy assets are way over valued, so are dumping them back to a sensible valuation. The banks are at risk here because they underwrite all those assets through lending and bonds, which are quickly all becoming junk. Once people realise the banks are insolvent, they will rush to get money out of collapsing retail banks. Withdrawal limits will then be imposed to stop the bank run and helicopter money will be incoming (as it already is). It's important to remember that prior money printing just went into the financialised economy, but helicopter money will be in the real economy. Hence real inflation will kick in.

So there was/is mass inflation in prices hence our tokens of exchange are worthless. Where's that inflation gone now? Compounding inflation even at 2% still adds up to devaluation of those tokens. When it takes more tokens to purchase the same item, we have a problem Houston. Now, if asset prices have dropped we no longer need as many tokens to purchase, therefore no need for inflation in the "real" economy. Where do these tokens come from if no one is working in the real economy?

Billions of "wealth" destroyed, billions lost. I'd suggest self isolation is used to hunt under the beds, in the nooks and crannies. It must be there somewhere assuming it was ever real. Note the debt isn't real either. Or, look out the window and ponder... do you see it?

It's all an illusion. Inflation driven by cost of living driven by inflation driven by an insatiable hunger for more driven by fear.

Numbers in a machine, distorted values...

Perhaps monetisation/financialisation of everything is the culprit here... which then alludes to human thinking, beliefs as the real culprit...

Yeah, so what you are describing is a currency crisis as well as a debt crisis. People will stop trusting fiat money, because it can just be made infinitely. Which is what will (and has many times in the past) happen, which will push real inflation up.

In those times, there needs to be something physical to back stop real currency. Gold has been used as that back stop for thousands of years.

Absolutely financialisation is the culprit here, creating an imaginary economy based on imaginary fiat money that can just be created instantaneously, then basing valuations for real companies on that created money is a recipe for disaster. The bad thing about this system is that the money can be created instantly, but it cannot be destroyed. And once that flows into the real economy... look out.

Well said.

Perhaps a more intelligent form than us has decided to solve the injustice/inequality for us.

I wish it was that simple Kate. The more intelligent form will only send triggers. It is still up to us to solve. If we don't address the thinking that got us here we won't.

Are we too blind to see....

But I understand...

It's all about beliefs, both individual and collective, learned and taught....

...gold coins in the US are at $2k an ounce and are now largely unavailable. We will see.

guwop you have been saying that for weeks re Gold. Both Russia and China have been steadily increasing there’re gold reserves for the last five years - what does that tell you? As they saying goes,” he has the gold makes the rules”.

I am heading to town to pick up some parts, full shutdown could be hours away. We missed our chance to control this and now it's going to be Chaos.

It is a shame. NZ government has not reacted any better than most developed countries (Australia, US, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden etc). NZ remote location is such a massive economic disadvantage. In a time that its remoteness and difficulty to access would have been its advantage, the government has failed to use this characteristic to its advantage. We have been very lucky that there are no more cases. The Invercargill case, who got the virus in Australia and has a very mild version of it, has been out and about until yesterday (when he was tested) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120364842/the-first-....
Many of the other 20 cases have similar stories. We must be incredibly lucky that there are no clusters of infected individuals who are asymptomatic (or yet to show the symptoms) in most of our cities.

"NZ government has not reacted any better than most developed countries " - true and shocking given the huge advantage of seeing how things pan out in Europe and having a couple of weeks to learn those lessons.

I agree, todays press conference with Ashley Blomfield will be interesting but suspect we have a day or maybe just hours before country locks down and supermarkets close their doors.

supermarkets will not close their doors. Nowhere they have closed down supermarkets. This is a little bit panicky. Like people buying all the sanitizing gels and hoarding them as if they are going to live for 1000 years and they will need to sanitize their hands every 10 mins during that time. We need to help each other to come out of this and we must act sensibly and prompt others to do so as well.

Yes you are right, I momentarily this morning got sucked into the headline grabbing articles coming from the likes of Stuff.

I stepped away from the computer when they posted this latest click-bait headline "NZ's doomsday plan" saying Govt is prepared for 38,000 deaths over 8 week period.

In fact its the Ministry of Health (MOH)'s New Zealand Influenza Pandemic Plan which was published in 2002!

Even in Wuhan, supermarkets and pharmacies stayed open...

Oil prices collapsing … Big problem
As explained a million times, we don't run out … we run out of solvent consumers and then producers

There will come a time VERY quickly when quarantine measures will be abandoned to try and triage supply chains … the remedy is worst than the disease

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Yes this is a salient point I think most are missing. The oil production infrastructure may be dealt a permanent blow by this global recession, which will set up an echo recession with a future oil supply shock.

without a ticking Oil supply chain things will head south very quickly
including food production

Up tick for both those comments.

Disagree - oil now has a ceiling price, a price at which people start turning to alternatives in droves such as electric vehicles and alternate means of production. We will never see the highs we have previously, too many people have workable alternatives to oil.

Agreed. At these prices exploration drops to nil. Then we start to run dry...Bigger issue than virus.

" Then we start to run dry..." - When exactly? I've got a feeling the existing oil extraction could support us for several years.

How much of it is solvent south of $20?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oH3iB0h1XlU&list=WL&index=28&t=0s
Does it get worse before it get’s better? Nenner says, “I think we are heading for a depression. Usually we go into a recession at a 6% GDP. Now, we have 1.5% to 2% GDP. Usually, the Fed Funds are 6%, 7% or 8%. Now they are almost zero. What are they going to do when we get a recession? You get very fast a negative GDP. You get very fast a negative interest rate and it’s a big mess. This has been going on for many, many nice years and all the Fed presidents had tricks and let it go. They did not want to have a depression in their lifetime like the 1930’s. So they kept it going and now there is no way out anymore.”

WARNING East Coast North Island just be careful as geonet showing alot of activity last 2 days maybe nothing but seems to have picked up from Samoa down to NZ.

Ruapehu showing a fever as well. Hopefully it doesn't start coughing.

I think it will be with us forever but after a year we will gear up hospitals, initial susceptal population knocked down, and the new norm will be higher death rates.

Medical science has done an absolutely brilliant job of lengthening our life expectancy and dealing with previously untreatable conditions.

Now it's a step back. People with obesity, lung conditions etc will have higher rates of dying.

We are in an initial reaction phase. The new norm will take a while to adjust to as we have had it so good so long. The adjustment will be painful though. Suddenly a mortgage free home looks very inviting.

If I lived in a country like the US with little grip on Corona virus and a poor public health system I'd probably buy a flight to New Zealand while its still possible. After all what's 14 days in a hotel room compared to facing into that storm?

herald is running a story of north shore couple taking children out of daycare and returning to china 'as it is safer"no details of occupations or business they are in.

Our family was chatting last night about where we would rather be right now, the USA, Europe, or China. We all said China.
And that's saying something.

"And that's saying something." - It's saying that your family sucked up the CCP propaganda amazingly well.

Funny. I'd say Europe but then I'm not worried about what would happen to me personally if I caught it. If you were to ask where I wanted my elderly parents to be now though might be a different story.

I'd find that very had to believe. Considering that even in China's large cities like Beijing they lack basic necessities such as drinkable tap water in their apartment buildings not to mention all their restrictions in their day to day life (Even before the virus). Here's a very interesting short Youtube documentary that highlights what has been happening over there: Coronavirus in China | DW Documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K3fy5eKeuM

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A community transmission will rise, peak and fall. As long as we have a managed peak, then we will be fine. The real question is what we are going to do once it starts falling. China is still struggling to go back to "normal". 4 suburbs of my hometown went back to semi-lockdown as the authority detected new cases. I guess we will need to accept the fact that, without a vaccine, the only way we can get through this bug is to get infected.

Current models suggest it will take years to do that without overwhelming hospitals - unless we can increase hospital capacity by 10x it is not really viable.

A vaccine or at least a therapy regimen to reduce the severity of the symptoms so reduce the hospital workload and mortality rate.

I’m seeing 3D - de populisation, de dollarisation, de globalisation.

100%

We got what we wanted from you. Now youre on your own.

- Capitalism

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The Mayor of Queenstown was on the radio this morning saying 20% of homeowners there rely on Air B and B to pay the mortgage.
I think the housing market there will crash.

Yep my neighbor only has a few bookings left over the next two months, then he's not sure what he's going to do. I've advised him to try to rent out long term but it's in the middle of no where in a very small Coromandel village, it has lovely sea views though.

Tearing it down and selling the bricks might be the only way to squeeze any money out of it in the next 12-18 months.

LOL, Sadly I think it's mostly constructed of fiberboard with a tin roof.

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Queenstown is toast, no matter what happens from here.
Experience taught me that from owning an accidental a rental there at $650 per week , it went to $0 when circumstances changed ( the film crews left town!) and after 3 months I managed to re-let it for $50 per week - for the security of having it occupied as 'empties stripping' had started.
This is going to be far worse and last a lot longer.

Rubbish. I've been told by our local expert landlords that rent will only go up up up.

Yeah, it's crashed a couple of time in the past too. Qtown property has never been a one way safe bet

About time this greed needed to stop.

Wow. 20%. Can't say I'm surprised.

Was always going to happen in the first downturn. Now - the valuations are absolutely off the scale down there.

Expect declines of 60-80% IMO. It's a tourist town with no tourists, everyone will start leaving and rents will collapse.

This winter will be a good time to go skiing though...

Yes, I think that the first category of housing to go south would be that of those Air B and B owners who are highly geared, and situated in remote resorts. I'm not sure this category would be looked upon as favourably by the banks as would a family home in the suburbs of a large town or city where the breadwinner/s has just lost their job; in the latter case I would think the government might step in by way of a freeze on mortgage repayments, for a time anyway.

Fritz,

"I think the housing market there will crash."

How can that possibly be?

We are reliably told by the "property market experts" in the media that there is an underlying housing shortage so property prices will not fall by much, and that the property price will double every 10 years, because there will be continuing inbound immigration as NZ is a desirable place to live ... LOL ...

People might soon learn firsthand the difference between:
1) underlying supply and underlying demand
2) effective supply and effective demand.

There will be collateral damage.

The Chinese are not the world’s most transparent supplier of sensitive statistics, so let us not get too excited.

Yes you could well be right Boatman, though it's fascinating some of the tracking app tools that they put in place to keep taps on people, including those with the virus. There's some examples in this short documentary: Coronavirus in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K3fy5eKeuM

David, you say up days are for Mugs. Without the mugs, there will be no market. we need mugs.

Should we be getting emergency cash out of our bank accounts now????

yes

Stuff are having a field day

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120334508/coronavirus-...

The flu pandemic plan they refer to has been around for years.

What is not discussed is the particular planning around covid2019. This is the work we need be seeing.
We have been told it's been done, being done, but who knows. We should see the modelling, decisions about test kit tactics and resourcing.

Stuff have finally jumped the shark with that misleading article.

We're reaching the stage of too much sensationalism from the MSM and risk people becoming desensitised and bored and switching off like they have with Stuffs never ending climate change doom articles.

Yeah, it's not as the The Plan included such trivialities as ensuring that there were enough test kits available, to be able to base strategy on Actual Data.......My close relative, with testable symptoms, is still waiting for that swab.....Plan, schmlan....we still aren't sure exactly how many mechanical ventilators there are.....

Z-man with a thought-provoking piece:

The people doing this [competing with one another to see who can impose the most outlandish conditions on people] put on their best concern face and bravely march to the nearest bank of cameras to perform their serious act. You see, they really don’t want to do this and they regret having to make such a big deal of it. It’s just that events have forced them to bravely impose a huge cost on others so they can get some public adulation and the dopamine rush that comes from it. You haters out there snickering are just running dog lackeys of the coronavirus! Of course, the reason we have a panic right now is the politicians have been influenced by the expert drama queens. These are the people who play experts on cable chat shows and internet sites. They come up with impressive looking claims about how this will be an unprecedented plague, not seen in human history. Never mind that these people have been wrong about everything in the past. We don’t have time for that. The world is at risk unless we act now! The crowd cheers and the curtain closes.

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