Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news investors sense the infections at the heart of the pandemic may be peaking globally.
It started in Europe. Equities are racing higher today as a relief rally is based on the flimsiest of Covid-19 data - that the New York region increase in deaths is slowing. The S&P500 is up +5.8% in what can only be called a ghoulish rally. It means in one day, the value of the NYSE has risen +US$1 tln. It is very hard to see investor thinking here for such a move.
The US Fed said it will launch a new program to buy loans that banks and other lenders make through the government’s emergency small-business lending program. Cue a collapse in lending standards which the American taxpayer will underwrite.
In the corporate world there is a bit of a desperate race on by companies to raise capital if they can. The idea is to "rebuild balance sheets" - code for getting rid of the obligations of debt. But for many companies, it is far too late. Their prospects have been damaged so fundamentally that equity investors aren't in the mood. Most of the targeted investors for raising this capital are small investors, often through their KiwiSaver or superannuation funds. One company about to try this is AfterPay.
Some food prices are starting to rise as supply chain disruptions cause global shortages. Wheat and rice are showing this rising effect. Hoarding is accentuating the effect. But other commodities are falling, like corn and soybeans. We have another dairy auction tomorrow so we will see soon enough whether dairy products are being affected in this way.
There are now 1106 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +67 new cases yesterday and lower than the +89 increase the day before. The number of clusters has risen to 10. Only one person has died here. There are still only 13 people in hospital with the disease, three in ICU with two of them critical. Also see this.
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,309,40 and up +62,000 this time yesterday. 27% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +23,000 since yesterday to 347,000. It is a marginal slowing in the rate of increase. China's recovery rate is now 94% and they claim they only have 5400 active cases nationwide. After two and a half months, Wuhan is emerging from lockdown and isolation. Australia has now over 5800 cases, 4700 active, and while the rise in infection is slowing, deaths are not and now exceed 40. Global deaths now exceed 72,000. Death rates in Europe are frightening and keep on rising; 17.2% in Italy, 10.3% in the UK, 9.7% in Spain, 8.6% in France. But they are much lower in Germany at 1.6%. The US rate is has jumped to just on 3.0% and now exceeds 10,000. China is holding at 4.0% with 3,300 deaths. Death rates in the rest of Asia are modest by comparison at about 1.4% in their developed countries.
The UST 10yr yield has jumped sharply to just under 0.68% and a +8 bps rise in a day. Their 2-10 curve is more positive today at +41 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also more positive at +28 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also up, to +60 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.82% and a rise of +6 bps. The China Govt 10yr is however little-changed at 2.62%. Likewise, the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also unchanged at 1.03% in international markets.
Gold is also sharply higher, up by +US$36, to US$1,658/oz.
As expected, US oil prices are sharply lower today at just over US$26.5/bbl, a -US$1.50 fall. The Brent benchmark is also lower at just over US$33/bbl. The Russians and Saudis can't agree to talk, and American crude stocks rose even higher. But this situation is very volatile and could go either way.
The Kiwi dollar has risen firmly on a sinking greenback and up almost +¾c to 59.4 USc. On the cross rates we are softer at 97.5 AUc as the Aussie has risen even more. Against the euro we are up at 55 euro cents and also a +¾c gain. That means the TWI-5 is at 66.3 and back to the same level it was a week ago.
Bitcoin is now at US$7,215 and up a sharpish +6.2% in a day. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
202 Comments
BBC Coronavirus: Boris Johnson taken to intensive care. "Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been taken into intensive care in hospital with coronavirus. He has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise for him, a No 10 spokesman said."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52192604
this is actually shocking me, someone with the best care available.
Yeah I know, it's only yesterday that the BBC reported that Boris wasn't on a ventilator as had been reported in the Russian news media. Apparently he's had the coronavirus for ten days now.
It's not at all shocking to me. Although it is deeply worrying and saddening.
How many seasonal flu's have put a major economies leader in intensive care? How many easily cured with a bit of cheap as chips Hydroxychloroquine have put a Prime Minister in intensive care?
Seasonal flu that overloads NYC's capacity to deal with the bodies to the point where they have a back up plan of temporarily burying people in the city's parks 10 at a time.
The US Government is claiming that the death rate will peak at around 3000 people per day. I think that is an optimistic projection at this point. Wall Street is rather enthusiastic about this "good news" without getting a grip on the fact that globally there are going to be prolonged trade, currency and unemployment issues.
Peaking at 3,000/day will leave deaths on a par with the 2018 flu season - with a vaccine. This time we have stuffed the economy and the 3000/day will look like a pup compared with deaths from economic malaise.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/…
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-exce…
If only the good times were used to fix the widespread problems in the financial system so that this event could be weathered.
All I can do right now is complete my current design work and prepare to get, what construction projects remain, underway. A pity I don't see any evidence of Council's processing building consents right now (MBIE has advised that Councils only need to process essential work and only do other work if they can comply with the lockdown rules).
It seems the 2017-18 flu season killed an estimated 508 people per day in the USA. Can't find a figure for a peak day in that season, so difficult to compare.
That Covid-19 projection assuming full social distancing till May predicts 81,766 deaths. More than the bad 2017-18 flu season even with the lockdown.
exactly, how many people would die from the flu if we had a lockdown like we have now? Probably zero.
S Korea has has a similar rate of infection to us, 47 yesterday, with no lock down. Chilling what we are doing to our livelihoods when other countries are doing it so much better.
South Korea were prepared because they're neighbours with China the virus creation generator and had prepared in advance. Including being able to test 15,000 per day from the start and having recently completed a dress rehearsal for such a pandemic. Also, looks like you have to surrender some privacy: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-south-koreas-success-in-control… (Singapore seems to have done this well too, prior to their lockdown starting recently. Very close tracking of incoming folks' self-isolation.)
Absolutely agree that countries would have been more wise to prepare in advance. Perhaps distance from previous CCP outbreaks and the lower overall results from SARS gave them a false sense of security, such that we saw such behaviours like Trump's cutting of budget for measures and resources that would have helped in this pandemic.
With all the hidden asymptomatic transmission going on it seems that no matter how good you are at tracking you eventually get to the point where there are enough hidden cases wandering around at anytime that any relaxation of isolation will quickly lead to an explosion of new cases. All those countries that gave us hope - like Iceland, Korea, Japan and Singapore are sliding towards lockdowns themselves.
Situation is really quite hopeless without some treatment miracle or massive increase in ICU capacity to cut deaths down from hospitals overwhelmed 5% to ~1% (benchmark appears to be Iceland)
S Korea doesn't look to be sliding towards lockdown at all. Check out this chart. NZ govt needs to have a very, very good reason why we are not following their every step. Most would give a temporary privacy to save their livelihoods. Industries that already work in isolation should be able to get on with it to start paying for this yeah, nah strategy.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102777/south-korea-covid-19-daily-…
Interesting that death from the flu in the USA season of 2017-2018 per CDC was estimated at around 24,000-63,000, so kind of interesting to collate this reaction of shutting the economy down, we cannot afford to do this every time a contagion comes around can we? Just a question.....Europe at estimate of 40,000 flu deaths in the current season? And the flu is pretty contagious as well.
Maybe the positive from this will be for people to be more hygienic in general. Many people have been washing hands and using hand sanitizer for years, especially after going anywhere in public, this is nothing new to those who are already aware. Maybe an increase in education at the core of school curriculums, along with basic money management education, instead of many of the other worthless subjects currently promoted by the special interests??
And an end of shaking hands, to be replaced with the eyebrow raise at the start of all meetings.
death predictions for COVID-19 for the US are 2.2 million without lockdown
2.2 million vs 63K, you just can't compare this to the flu.
It's almost like people cannot comprehend the idea that the Flu already has a prevalence i.e. complete spread whereas this unique strain of virus is still only 12 weeks old. The next time there's a gunman on the loose near a school, let's not worry about locking it down (or apprehending the gunman) because your kids are more likely to be hit by a car on a pedestrian crossing than struck by a stray bullet.
The virus affects people differently. I read somewhere that 50% are asymptomatic. Of the other 50%, 80% of them have mild symptoms (recover at home), 14% need to see a doctor, and the remaining 6% are affected quite severely (and BJ falls into this latter group).
ginganinja….Really helps our confidence to have a comment from a qualified doctor of virus research such as yourself with regards to an untested drug, and thank you trump for saying the same thing, it makes all of us unintelligent people to have the likes of you two making us feel safe through your integrity and knowledge in these matters.....
RNZ had a snippet update saying he's conscious but on an oxygen supply.
I guess that's what happens when you go to a hospital with Covid-19 patients and shake hands with everyone.
How many people did Boris infect? I reckon politicians are likely to be super-spreaders with the amount of people they are in contact with.
I would suggest that Ms Ardern has squandered her leadership points and the government’s credibility by not sacking David Clark. Stay home to save lives? What joke. Many have seen their livelihoods vanish on advice presumably given by Mr Clark who has shown himself to be both a muppet and a hypocrite. Won’t last the day, imho.
Quite right.
To keep him on is no better than Fletcher management taking a lesser cut to wages than their employees.
These two decisions will come back to haunt those who made them when this is over - whenever that may be.
Fletcher's could have cemented the goodwill of their workforce for an extended time.
Ardern could have ensure a 2nd, 3rd and 4th term by sacking Clark- frankly, he's not the sharpest tool in the box anyway from what I see. Who would make the 'poor' decisions he made on this topic otherwise?
She didn't and her time in office is now limited.
How many sharp tools does she have in the box? When I arrived in NZ Michael Cullen was deputy leader and I didn't like him at all but you knew he had a brain. It is very unlikely I will ever vote for ACT and David Seymour may be wrong but he is not dumb. Politics is about far more important things than pure brains ~ I'd value common sense, empathy and judgement more ~ but brains helps. Who are the bright back benchers?
Correct, in a Govt short on ideas, action and delivery they can not afford to throw out ones that can think.
The guy is in a high pressure job, the weight of NZ on his shoulders so he can go for a mountain bike to clear his head. Screw the doom and gloom nit pickers.
You're a bit behind Kezza. He drove the family 20km to the beach as well. It's not nitpicking, it's one set of rules for him and another for us.
Oh whoop de do da. How many hours has he spent with his family the last few months? Bugga all, away a lot and under a hell of a lot of pressure.
Take a walk in his and his families shoes before you comment.
Really odd from you. This account has been the most active cautioning against the impending epidemic. Now that the health minister flouts his own rules which we are all abiding by, you're not concerned?
The perception now is going to be "if the health minister can drive to do recreation so can I". What was the point of the lock down then?
And if you remember correctly, a hell of what I've called was correct and should have even implemented.
To me it is an over reaction from the media, that should have just hushed it up.
The guy is a bit if a dick but he knows the risks better than most and ge is educated.
It is not the educated that will be spreading in the community.
It's a storm in a tea cup and there are much bigger issues that the media should be talking about like the impending US mortgage collapse that has a by far greater effect on NZ than someone flouting the rules.
If I had been working 24/7 and hadn't seen my kids in quite a while, I would be looking to do something with them as well. I wouldn't have been that stupid to go in a car with my mug splashed on the side or not to be covered up so no body would recognize me though. Maybe in his area people know him and he gets asked question after question about his job and what he should and shouldn't be doing, that would annoy the hell put of me and I would go further afield.
What the media should be out doing is talking about Tinder activity and doing covert filming of different areas that are abiding and not but then that would shine a light on Labour and Green voters, which of course will just bot do.
And you remain as offensive as ever Kezza R.
hunhub back again after your last claims received eye rolls.
How is your beloved US and it's mighty military going? Still with their heads in the sand being incapable of delivering 1st world health care results while telling the world BS figures. Some things never change. I will be glad to watch them crumble apart, it is a result of their own arrogant stupidity.
Agree, seems like it's mainly the old school talkback listeners who are baying for blood. It's a crisis time and he had a silly error of judgment. But it's a crisis time and he's no Collins and Oravida, suggesting serious ethical issues.
Sitting at home and they want a drama.
Jacinda can't sack him. Next cab off the rank is even dumber! If she had the manoevring room to sack people Shane would have been down the road a long time ago.
Brains are all very well but a double edged sword if the attitude is wrong. Whenever I employed an individual I would take a good attitude as the first priority. Simply because a good attitude would learn and try to overcome any deficiencies whereas you get someone with brains and a bad attitude it can get to be diabolical. Your comment on Dr Cullen is interesting in that it goes some way in that regard. I was at the same school and he was dux. Undoubtedly he is of considerable intelligence. Despite that he stooped to some of the most outlandish gutter sniping imaginable calling one individual a lobotomised Jerry Lewis, another a blowfly for instance.
Indeed
I found him too blinded by his ego and ideology. I felt he was dramatically out of touch with societal reality. Typical political socialist really, one in name only.
He accepted a scholarship at a private school and did very well with it. He then turned on the school saying he had ripped of the rich farmers in paying for his education and now that he was in parliament he would get into them again. Didn’t come across that until years later. I was saddened more than surprised. Something rather vindictive, spiteful there in my opinion.
In part there is some merit to your position, but how long would it take someone else to step up into the position and get their head around all the facets of it? Does he have a deputy? Who is it? And how capable are they?
Ardern should have taken on the role, and sorted the permanent replacement bit out subsequently.
When crisis strikes, that's when leaders, lead.
Clark was a pompous ass with religious overtones. Chose to know better (pers com). The arrogance may have rubbed off from Hodgson, who is heading the hospital build (a very old Labour approach to the world, circa Nordmeyer).
Both have heard the Limits to Growth problem, neither have addressed it. Clark, indeed, decided to 'have a different opinion'. Which made him a wasted space in the near term. As was Curran. But we must remember that National are even worse in this regard.
Also worse in terms of pompous asses with religious overtones.
Maybe what we see is what we get.
In that JA is operating and the boundary of mental and physical powers.
To anticipate a change in behaviours is fanciful.
She already has a lot on her plate, and I'd suggest limited if any capacity to take on more, especially in her role as PM. Leaders can't do everything, and one of the hardest lessons to learn as a leader (not a manager) is delegation. It is too easy to criticise from the benches.
I think criticism from the bench is entirely acceptable when the "theoretical" best player has left the stadium mid match and driven to the beach for a picnic.
Clarke is fully deserving of the criticism. Of that there is no doubt
And the consequence of this deserving criticism?
Storm in a teacup.
How does NZ's Covid response stack up?
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/06/1117839/how-does-nzs-covid-19-res…
It is clear to see that Jacinda doesn't take the lead there are very few that can do anything.
Cut the Greens free for a start, they couldn't brainstorm, organize and deliver a pizza.
Get people who can proform, Jacinda was out of her debth from the very start and she's going in deeper.
Jacinda needs to learn how to sack people who do not deliver. Bring your bag with you if you come with a failure to deliver because you are leaving.
People who could proform.
Now there's a suggestion
Unfortunately they aren't part of Labour, Greens or NZF.
Henry loves to deep think and criticise...from the benches.
Who would she pass the buck to when it goes bad if she was running it?
Jacinda is not in a position to sack anyone. Just remember that she is only Prime Minister because Bill English refused to compromise his and National's principles to accommodate Winston. She has a very limited and compromised mandate. This makes her job very difficult. Refer to Kiwibuild, CGT etc. She cannot impose herself on anyone because if she falls out with a very few people, her government falls.
She is trying to be everyone's friend in a role where that isn't appropriate.
You comment is absurd, she isn't your friend.
Yes, who could they use? Need someone that is a Dr but not one that will outshine Jacinda so that rules out Liz Craig - Doctor, public health physician and former "Director of the NZ Child and Youth Epidemiology Service and spent over a decade monitoring the health of NZ's children and young people."
Liz couldn’t even make it on Epidemic Response Committee.
No wonder Jacinda was running around telling people you couldn't get C19 from people without symptoms.
Thanks for the info; I'll watch out for her now. I find it unbelieveable Dr Craig is not in cabinet, high rank, etc. Did she have a disagreement with Jacinda Ardern?
Given Jacinda got in to parliament to solve child poverty and Dr Liz is a child poverty expert you have to wonder. Doctor vs spindoctor?
I know nothing of Liz Craig, but the short CV you give is similar to many incmpetents I have had the displeasure of dealing with.
Mere distractions from the fact we are in no way prepared to come out of level 4. No plan for the national distribution of face masks, gloves or hand sanitizer to households and businesses. No clear discussion on business operating protocols. NZ govt and media asleep at the wheel as precious time is squandered.
Given where we are on the Limits to Growth graph (get informed if you ain't) your 'precious time' has indeed been squandered. But by BAU, including business.
This may well trigger the needed bigger debate, but few politicians of any hue will be up to what is needed. This is beyond ideology, all angles of which are flawed, Oddly enough (coming from someone like me) I'd suggest the pragmatism of Key would be useful (whereas the dogmatism of Joyce most definitely would not). You have to realise that 'coming out' and 'back to normal' are based on misassumptions.
Yes PDK it's obvious, but Rome didn't collapse in a decade. The complexity/corruption keeping the current system afloat is truly awesome, underestimate it at your peril. How do we prioritise the use of the remaining juice? With honesty? Democratically? Equitably? Through the barrel of a gun?
You do the things you can do, and don't do the ones which are beyond you.
Simple, really.
:)
Amen to that ..
she missed a opportunity yesterday , she was hammered with questions about SB driving from Tauranga to wellington which she dodged, if she had sacked DC for driving 20 kms that would have sent a powerful message about who is and should be in charge
Think about your comparisons.
You realize there are approx 750,000 kiwis going to work today?
Driving 520kms each are they?
safer to drive than fly with regard to the virus
I think her not taking up the opportunity to lay into Ximon Bridges for his constant driving between Tauranga and Wellington should signal to the Leighton Hosking barking-at-passing-cars crowd that there are indeed important issues to focus on, more important even than point scoring over the head of the opposition.
Didn't Winstin come out and say that he agreed with Simon doing that drive..
Maybe he has some knowledge of Labour Party wrong doings that is allowing him to stay put for now.
By the international death figures China has got of lightly. Perhaps an inherent immunity already existed in the populace which masked the virulent nature of the threat hence the lassitude and complacency that has dropped the rest of the world right in the s...t. The country from now on must be handled with the requisite suspicion, policing and controls otherwise it will be here we go again in just a matter of time.
And the biggest question of all - "Why did China lock itself down?"
If it was 'just another virus' then why cripple their economy for 2,500 deaths - even if that is 25,000; maybe even 250,000? There's a billion plus lives affected by this in China alone.
They didn't do it for our sake, but theirs, and the benefit of doing so must have been seen as outwigning the costs. Ergo, it's worse than we think....
Yes, this is the question I keep asking myself. Why did China shutdown if the numbers are true?
As of today 3,335 Dead, across "3" months out of a population of 1.386 Billion. = 0.00024% dead.
Hardly worth blinking for yet alone stopping the planet.
Wow. Just wow.
Firstly, 1.386 billion people were not infected. If they had been, more than 3,335 would have died.
Secondly, 1.386 billion people were not infected *BECAUSE* of the actions they took.
Looking at the result of their actions and then pretending like that result would have occurred without their actions, which is precisely what you are doing, is asinine.
They locked down the country because it was the Chinese Lunar New Year, the largest human migration on this planet. Wuhan is the transportation hub in central China.
Do you even know China? Take a Wendy Wu tour China when next time they are on promotion.
Next question: given they did that...why on earth were they so adamantly against NZ closing its border to China during the same time. Are we expected to take Covid-19 export crops?
In time the total excess mortality figures will tell the true story. They are 2-4 fold higher in Italy and Spain and are likely to be much higher in China, Wuhan has had 40,000 excess deaths alone.
http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/urns-in-wuhan-far-exceed-death-toll-r…
It was because China was the centre of the SARS outbreak. The initial responses (incl. all the coverups) were based on the assumption that COVID-19 was another SARS.
China has had some pretty draconian restrictions in place for their lock down which has paid off with reducing their infection/death rates. It's also allowed them to install some quite invasive tracking systems for their citizens which are rather scary. I know that their social credit system was scheduled to go in to full operation this year.
Lets hope that this new virus doesn't mutate as much as the one in 1918 did (Spanish flu), that wiped out a quarter of the world's population.
Spanish Flu may have infected a quarter of the world's population but it didn't "wipe out" a quarter of the world's population. More like one fortieth.
The full figures aren't known for the 1918 Spanish Flu. Estimates on the exact number of fatalities vary wildly, from 20 million to 50 million to 100 million deaths. If the upper end of that estimate is accurate, the 1918 pandemic killed more people than both World Wars put together.
The Spanish flu also had a far higher mortality rate then Covid 19 currently has, unless it mutates.
And the world's population was much greater than 400 million, so it didn't wipe out a quarter of the worlds population like you claimed, even in worst case estimates
Re mutation fears, listen to peak prosperity interview with a virologist, it's somewhat reassuring
The only inherent immunity the Chinese have here is to reporting the truth.
Nymad, you're smashing it this morning.
No mention of this embarrassment - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/120859271/health-minister-str…
He is more than hopeless and the PM as usual when faced with a non-huggable decision shirks her responsibility to the People of this country.
Her excuse the "Disruption to our Health Sector". By all accounts no one would even notice him missing, the only stuff he does appear to be actively contributing is different methods to break the rules.
The whole thing is an absolute disgrace.
For a town with a proud history of tertiary education Dunedin really has out-done itself in electing thick politicians.
The National option: Michael Woodhouse
Ain't that the truth. Sub-par, is Mr Woodhouse. Mind you, I told Curran to her face that she was a wasted space. You have to go back to Hodgson to find an intellect capable of addressing the bigger issue(s) facing humankind - and he chose not to. Richard Walls probably had the cranial capability too, but ditto.
What about bringing back Dr Death (Coleman) in an advisory role?
The students come from elsewhere in NZ and then leave once they've finished their studies.
But voted Green and Labour while they were here but then went into the real world and voted National.
Yes, because there have been no consequences from National cutting taxes and underfunding health for the last decade.
Oh, wait, maybe there have been...
So presumably Ximon Bridges and David Clark both need to go, eh. Disgrace. Horror.
Definitely. Most of them should be gone. Western Politics (Could include Western society as a whole) has significantly diminished in ability, aptitude, and leadership at the top level.
We keep treating the country like a business, and we treat business like entities that only have to make it to the next reporting period.
No requirement to plan long-term, no ethical/moral/cultural/environmental concerns, and absolutely Zero accountability.
Covid isn't the cause of the issues (although corporates may suggest otherwise), rather it is the bright light shining into a lot of dark corporate recesses and finally exposing the truth of their operations.
But empty space Ardern before all others.
So the Dow increases 5.5% on the back of "slightly" slowing new infections today. Something smells fishy!
It's fine. Everything is fine. The virus will disappear as fast as it arrived and everything will go back just how it was before. Move along...
Bear market rallys are great for taking money from complete mugs.
The train wreck continues
https://asianinvasion2019.blogspot.com/2020/04/businesses-who-have-rece…
It's ironic isn't it? Withholding information that is normally available to convince people that the bank is safe, when the publication of that information was for exactly that purpose. Enough to make you suspicious right off the bat! I'd pull my money!
Not surprised. Wait till they (Governments) decide to filter or at worst turn of the internet to prevent widespread disinformation at times like these. Information control is commonly practised these days by Governments, agencies and even corporations. The easiest way to control a group of us humans.
That sucker's gonna find it a little difficult to borrow from a bank in the future!
I hear they even reduced his credit card limit
One calculation I've seen on the downstream cost of the lockdown and resultant unemployment. Unemployment increases the mortality rate of a working age person by 63%. 2017 mortality, presumably for a worker in the USA, is 348.2/100,000.
Too right scarfie. The death rate from the lockdown and resultant unemployment is pretty much ignored. Howls of derision if you ever bring it up. Imperative people and supply chains that can work in isolation are allowed to continue working.
"The economic crisis of 2008-10, and the rise in unemployment that accompanied it, was associated with more than 260,000 excess cancer-related deaths—including many considered treatable—within the Organization for Economic Development (OECD), according to a study from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Imperial College London, and Oxford University."
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-exce…
I was reading about Archie Hunter he was a British General who spent most of his life in Africa, youngest son stuff uncle bought him a commision.
He said that while in Africa %80 of young officers died from sickness and about %2 from fighting. He used modern machine guns effectively and warned the UK about the dangers of modern warfare pre WW1.
2nd down on here
https://www.melik.org.uk/discover/soldiers-of-the-nile/soldiers-of-the-…
What I am trying to say is, we live in a world where we are not used to dying young from disease, in the past it was very common.
As Michael Reddell pointed out - the early missionaires to Africa took their possessions with them in a coffin. They were prepared.
US study. And in the second paragraph:
"Universal health coverage protects against these deaths."
I'd think suicides is where it will bite.
Dang. You would really hope given they keep commenting on this that the Right in the USA will be agitating for more universal health coverage to protect human lives.
One can only assume that's what they'll do. Surely?
Here is a reason why the Health Minister should be gone.
Because he will continue to screw up.
What do you think the % risk that he screws up in the future. Pretty Big.
You could apply that to all of Parliament.
"Here is the reason why ... should be gone.
Because they will continue to screw up.
What do you think the % risk that they screws up in the future. 100%."
Good point.
However the difference now is we are in a Health event State of Emergency.
There is no Parliament.
Make up your own mind about this..
The tenants of Agenda 21 anyone?.. you’re all commenting about these very things, some more than most.
Large carnivores roaming vast open spaces to keep humans under control?
Anything is possible I suppose! Thankfully that bit comes after "the internet has been closed down". So we won't be able to warn each other about where they are!
Mike Hosking? um, Naah. He's a wee little petit fella.
For people who live their lives in fear of models the Univserity of Washington have updated their Covid 19 projections. Projections on par with US 2018 flu deaths - that had a vaccine.
"81,766 COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020"
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
"Flu season deaths top 80,000 last year, CDC says"
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/…
Yes, the number of annual flu deaths is quite sobering. But we’ve lived with them for a century or so now. Cancer, heart disease, strokes are still the biggest killers. Cost/benefit decision are interesting - how many live would tobacco/alcohol bans and ultra low speed limits save? What will be the true human cost of the Covid lockdown? So many questions, so little time.
COVID will spread from a person to another. Tobacco and alcohol biological damage does not spread from the consumer to someone else. If COVID19 was something related to a life choice, then the comparison was rational. Otherwise it is baseless. Other diseases are also very personal, they are not infectious.
Yes, their model assumes "full social distancing" till the end of May.
1. Many states in the US aren't doing it, even today. 14 states are allowing religious congregations to continue.
2. It is assuming that the disease magically goes away in August.
All models are wrong but some are useful. This one doesn't seem particularly useful since it isn't reflecting reality.
Your forgetting that hopes and prayers will protect them form the devil virus
I'm surprised Profile seems to have completely missed that massive and critical difference. One with strict social distancing working. Flu without social distancing at all.
Also one has a vaccine and one doesn't. Another obvious massive and critical difference. Given social distancing is in the model title it is stretching it to suggest I missed it... But hey whatever floats your boat.
The interesting point is the absolute numbers are very similar even with the massive and critical differences.
Well, if you saw it I'd hope you factor it in to the comparison. Comparing one with massive effort to combat the spread of the virus with another with little effort to combat its spread...then just saying, "but they both go to eleven" seems to be missing some pretty pertinent info.
Hey, whatever floats your boat.
Your point seems to be suggesting that COVID-19 is not much worse than the flu for USA in terms of deaths, except that the model you are basing this presumption on has obvious and severe shortcomings.
Lanthanide you have a moral duty here to contact the hospitals using the model and let them know it has "severe shortcomings" and they are going to run out of hospital beds.
"IHME's model forecasts the outcome for each state by taking into account not just which measures state officials have imposed, but also the date on which officials imposed the measures and how much transmission was already underway by that point, as measured by the number of COVID-19 deaths. The model also considers how strict the measures are, with the greatest weight given to states that have imposed all three of the following options: closing educational facilities, closing nonessential businesses and issuing stay-at-home orders. The model is then adjusted based on what portion of a state's residents those various rules have been applied to. For instance, are the measures limited to certain cities or counties? Or are they statewide rules?"
And also magically supposes that no one is going to die after August because the virus will just disappear by then.
I'm beginning to realise ypu didn't read past the models title before slagging it off. Pro tip - have a read of the FAQ's.
Yeah, so it's talking about only 1 wave of the virus and making assumptions that social distancing is going to be employed perfectly.
It's an optimistic model.
Is there chance you could be a tad pessimistic? "U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams on Tuesday said he “absolutely” expects the U.S. death toll from the coronavirus will end up lower than earlier projections from the White House of between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths.
...Dr. Adams‘ comments echo Monday statements from Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“I think you’re going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models,” Dr. Redfield told an Arizona radio station."
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/7/surgeon-general-jerome-a...
Also the model doesn't imply social distancing will be imposed perfectly. Try and read more than the model title. As per above - "IHME's model forecasts the outcome for each state by taking into account not just which measures state officials have imposed, but also the date on which officials imposed the measures and how much transmission was already underway by that point, as measured by the number of COVID-19 deaths. The model also considers how strict the measures are, with the greatest weight given to states that have imposed all three..."
You have a clear false comparison going on here profile, you are confusing a virus left to spread without control and one that is (attempting) being controlled with social distancing measures and lockdowns. The two are not equivalent. You need to put the 3% death rate in context as-if COVID-19 was left to spread uncontrollably - it would probably kill people in the millions at least.
Compare apples with apples and you may have more success in realising why they are locking down.
I'm comparing 2018 absolute deaths with an up to date model - "Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan."
Neither seasons were left to spread without control. S Korea has not locked down and is in control of the situation. Yes I agree million would die if uncontrolled but that is rather redundant given it is being controlled - with varying rates of sophistication - depending on which country you live in.
If you post an opinion without a model people comment "but the models say...". Post a model from a respected source and people comment "that model is no good..." without bothering to read the FAQs.
The model should be seen as a 'best possible case' outcome. So yeah, comparing actual flu results against a 'best possible outcome' and implying that the response to the current disease is overblown is disingenuous.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/coronavirus-…
"The coronavirus emergency is probably temporary. The bailout looks like forever".
Aye, there's the rub
I'm still dry, we only had 12 mls of rain. The hills are starting to lose some brown, we have no rain in forecast so could go back to brown soon. All my creeks are as dry and empty as I have seen them.
The coast from here and Sth got rain. 60 mls or more but some areas were very dry and will require follow up. We all have pasture damage ,on the hills it's crickets living in the cracks coming out and destroying anything close. However I think we are all happier after last weeks rain.
Works have slowed right down to a crawl and I have heard of farmers desperate to get stock processed due to no feed, having to wait. Schedules falling lambs back .20c at weekend, talk of more to come. Talked to friend who killed some steers, got .60c a kg less than the lot he killed a few weeks ago.
Without the saleyards operating it's hard to know the value of stock.
I overseeded with a disk drill and Italian ryegrass mix also some oats and clover. I purchased a disk drill, friends with tine direct drills, with boots found the ground too hard and everything just slid along the surface.
The good thing with the disk drill is it opened the ground and rain poured in, that has saved the grass seed and it's all a inch high now.
Neighbours are all feeding out, trying to take pressure of pasture and let the grass get ahead, farmers I talk to expect nothing but a massive recession, if not something even worse.
https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LC
Black Cricket
https://www.agriseeds.co.nz/dairy/pasture-management/weed-pest-disease-…
AJ - download and read Daniel Quinn's 'Ishmael'.
It's all about locking up the food; you'd find it thought-provoking. I suspect the low, city-adjacent land will revert to local food production (for local consumption) and maybe within a season or two.
https://www.ourfoodnetwork.org.nz/ this is the beginnings of it
PDK, if you don't mind eating Vegetables then you can grow a ton on a small area. personally I'm a meat eater so need to hit out to some open country where the Buffalo roam. On the other hand if we fatten all the pets up...
I think the idea we can all live local is oversimplified.
Then you're committed to living at the expense of 'somewhere else'?
Sounds like colonialism and empire-ism to me :)
Interesting times. We use energy enough to alter the climate, the altered climate impacts our food production, which relies on the energy production. No problems there.....
energy use has crumbled perhaps the climate will change?
Sounds like common sense. I used to live in the North of Scotland - for 8 months a year food traveled by rail (it was a long time ago) north so we could eat something other than kale and travelling south is seaon were salmon and strawberries. The rail was diesel 60 years ago but today it could be solar or using sail powered boats. Just didn't feel like colonalism or empire although Scottish Nationalists may disagree.
My wife's family is from Scotland, actually so is mine. I do love the place, nothing like those little scottish pubs. I cannot believe the growth in Salmon farming, They send trucks down to Devon to pick up little fish they use to clean the nets. The whole industry is highly destructive dependent on antibiotics, dodgy food and cheap labor.
http://www.localindependentseaanglers.com/wrasse-and-the-farmed-salmon-…
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/europe/salmon-norway-fish-farm…
Lapun,
You're still around. All that kale must have been good for you :)
We stayed with my Wife's distant cousins on Skye, nothing wrong with the black pudding and Haggis. My wife's family had a farm in from Fort William but it's now owned by some Saudis as a hunting lodge. We also have friends in Ned, which is an interesting place.
Depends on your perspective. Local to me is probably farther than you think is local. Most of New Zealand is local to me, so we are already producing locally and consuming locally. Love my meat as well. Nothing beats a bit of veni fresh of the pan in the local hill country. So, there is 'local' put simply.
local could be as far as you can shoot
Shoot using a Bow and Arrow, must keep the anti-firearm lobby pleased.
Actually those compound bows are scary dangerous, no noise, then a 2" hole x 3 though your middle, just sit down and contemplate life while you bleed out.
When I was in California a guy missed his target, the arrow went through the hedge behind, through a window in the horse box ,out the other side and into the heart of his wife's horse grazing in the paddock.
Frank Lloyd Wright's Broadacre City;
https://franklloydwright.org/revisiting-frank-lloyd-wrights-vision-broa…
I keep thinking where pandemics are concerned, density is our enemy.
Indeed, Kate, thank the >insert favourite deity here< for Suburbs: instant social distancing.
But where will they build all the houses then?
Jacinda doesn’t want to sack David Clarke as there just isn’t anyone in her or her cohorts parties, that have any ability.
It is the weakest incompetent government that the country has ever had!
Jacinda and Grant Robertson are the only 2 that have shown their heads, where are the others?
Winston, Kelvin Davis, and the Greens, non existent like their ability.
They have been abysmal and they have no idea how they are going to get out of this.
The financial implications are going to be harsher than the medical ones without doubt!
Agree with everything you just said.
The government spin machine is downplaying it as a misjudged shortish 20KM drive when the reality is Clark consciously and in full knowledge of the rules his government was asking the rest of us to live by, brazenly made the decision to take the slow drive over steep hilly terrain on roads carrying little other traffic, thus exacerbating the risk. The good doctor of divinity's moral compass conveniently switched off. Pharisaical hypocrite!
Good insight thanks Aj. In normal times this stuff would be headlines.
Andrew - I was talking to bank manager, wanting to know if HO had formed any attitude to providing ongoing support. He said farming is the least of their worries. I looked at my increasing overdraft,because of the drought, and thought 'okay' is a relative term.
One positive is those one or two banks who bailed out of NZ farming in the last year or two may live to regret that decision. I know they caused hurt on the way out.
Yet beef prices seem to only be going higher at the supermarket.. 500g premium mince was $11.50 a pack a month ago, now $13.50 a pack. I take it that margin isn't going back to the farmers?
I was wondering how much beef is coming in from Australia? New World had mince as high as $18 a kg and looking at the lack of fat, I would say it was from a very old, very skinny dairy cow.
I suspect dairy farmers are getting very low prices from meat works at present.
AJ that's normal this time of year.
You get all these "specials" on "prime" "low-fat mince"
You're right, it's dairy farmers getting rid of old, empty or non-performing cows.
And not just from Oz, I reckon they're NZ animals.
Don't forget it's still bloody dry in places and farmers need to sell stock.
We've had enough rain to get things going but with little rain of late and little in the next ten days we are slipping fast. The fact that the advisor doesn't want to dry off the cows is starting to grate . Actually been grating for ten days.
I would have thought the best time to dry of cows was last month ?
It was, I would have, but some else knows better. O f course that leaves me to try n manage/work my way through to next season. Such is life.
Are you happy with cow condition redcows?
No, I'll struggle to get them back to 5 by calving, mostly because I won't have enough feed to do it. Time wise I've already dried off the first two weeks of Calvers(last 2 weeks July) and all culls are gone. Might scrape a just below 4 average.
I got an email from one of the meat processors. Ovine (sheep) kill reduced by 50%, beef 30% due to COVID. Dairy grazing is part of the collateral damage of the reduced ovine kill. The value of written grazing contracts will be shown to be either valuable, or not, in the current climate.
1. Dairy farmer was told by his grazier that the grazier isn't able to take his stock this winter as grazier can't his sheep away to works, so will need the feed for his own stock. Dairy farmer reply was -'so why are you telling me this, we have a contract and it's your problem not mine, according to that'.
2. In another situation the grazier has informed his dairy clients that he is upping the price to $42/hd/wk, take it or leave it.
3. Dairy farmer has spread his winter grazing out over several graziers - no written contracts. All except one grazier has recently told him - no winter grazing available now due to not being able to get graziers own stock away and which has compounded the effects of floods reducing winter crop and baleage sailing away down river.
4. Some graziers have decided that they can make more money buying beef at the now low prices and 2mths out from winter grazing commitments have cancelled their grazing (verbal) contracts. - They will be remembered. Though this is not the first time that some farmers in Southland have reneged on grazing contracts late in the season.
Some Southern farmers are having to spend substantial (six figure) sums on buying in feed to get their stock through this winter because of late notice cancelled winter grazing contracts.
2019/20 is/has been an 'annus horribilis' for many Southern farmers.
Well if it helps, they are not the only ones suffering. I would have thought farmers could use Force majeure in a year like this. We had a rotten autumn last year, hard winter, cold dry spring, worst drought, high temps in the 40's , summer just rolled into Autumn. I have hardly any stock on and I could still chase a mouse across the place.
I managed to find some hay for a guy yesterday, 100 big squares, I did have to ask what he's going to do end of May when the hay has all gone, he just shrugged.
Perhaps dairy farmers may have to cut back on the winter grazing, i find it hard on my soils, an expensive high cost option, would rather do something else almost anything else. Having said that $42 a week would be tempting me.
Thanks for the real farmers' sitreps on this thread. Reports from the front, rather than from the theoreticians, zealots and idealists who are safe, way behind the pointy end, are always welcome. Keep 'em coming, chaps and chapesses.
Yep definitely not the only ones - in fact I don't believe there is an understanding, outside of industries, of just how challenging the ag sector has had it this season - regardless of where you farm. It's not a one size fits all, as different regions have different issues - for some it is drought but for others its floods etc.
Yes, not everyone likes shifting fences and portable water troughs in winter. ;-) If we didn't have COVID and therefore a works backlog, we wouldn't have had the very short notice grazing cancellations to the degree we are seeing. Many graziers and dairy clients had kept in touch re the flood impacts. On the bright side, feed has been available to buy, and is only now getting harder to find, though most will have purchased what they need to get through the winter.
It won't just be rural NZ potentially living a 'winter of discontent' this year. This year all NZ will be in it together, one way or another, so we will require very good leadership.
I also think we are looking at the loss of the EU easter Lamb market, which used to be our best paying time of year. I think our saving grace has been the very good prices of the past few years.
The only explanation I can see for the rally is that the whole thing has become a casino and the gamblers have a serious gambling addiction
The economic fundamentals are in tatters , and there is absolutely no logical reason to invest in anything or any business other than maybe one or two sectors such as health services , pharma , and food processing , but these shares had not dropped as much as the other sectors , so they are probably still over fair value .
The whole thing defies logic and seems too good to be true , so it probably is
'The whole thing defies logic and seems too good to be true , so it probably is'....'the whole thing as become a casino and the gamblers have a serious gambling addiction'.
Sounds like our housing market the last 20 or so years. People using leverage in one house to buy another house.
The financial markets have been no different. Although many in the US just clip the ticket with their commissions while loading up their clients with leveraged ETFs which are likely to blow up if they haven't already.
Whether it's financial instruments or rental houses I've been telling people to reduce leverage for a couple of years now. I wouldn't want to have a margin call or an investment property with an interest only mortgage where you need to defer payments for a number of months.
It's been a casino ever since "Slick Willy" cancelled Glass-Steagall.
Ever since then gamblers (read iceholes) have been running the show.
The logic is simple; infection and death rates show signs of peaking as control measures take effect, viruses die if they can't multiply and spread, commercial activity will resume, the extent of equity pricing collapse is over done relative to the projected reduction in economic activity.
Equity market prices have lost any relation with underlying economic and accounting information for a very long time now. The price amount is absolutely meaningless. The only information content is the direction of the price (up or down). Anything else is purely crazy.
They had lost connection with historic metrics such as P/E ratios but given unprecedentedly low yields for comparative investment options, inflated equity pricing did demonstrate a pragmatic logic.
Marine Man
Open Season if you know where to look. Westcoasters = West Coast of US
It's called insider trading by the Westcoasters. The SEC in NY has insider trading ruthlessly controlled. What the SEC doesn't control is insider trading across the only 2 global markets that are open 24 hours. New York and Sydney. Sydney follows NY. Yesterday the ASX rose strongly while the NZX fell heavily. The Westcoasters buy the ASX. They don't buy NZX. Overnight NY is up 1700 points. The ASX-24 night futures market is up solidly. Today the ASX will rise, and the Westcoasters will cover. Neat. No crime. They make their own luck.
Not 'insider trading' in the accepted sense of the phrases' meaning; just taking advantage of geographical locations. But yes, the patterns you observe are often the reality. As a down under minnow investor you need to be aware of this timing. Talking of ASX vs NZX, there are some interesting possibilities in heavily sold down Aussie tracker funds, given the NZD/AUD cross rate is strong.
I'd like to provide a bit of perspective to the "frightening death rates in Europe" by sharing the actual death rate per total population of each county:
Italy: 0.0275% of its population.
Spain: 0.0279% of its population.
UK: 0.00814% of its population.
Not very high at all but I guess it makes for less sensationalistic headlines (remember these are the worst affected countries)
Yvil, the above figures are not informative. Itally has had 16K death a month from COVID 19 (that is despite all the strict measures they have taken), so if no measure was taken, lets assume that this monthly death number would have been for the next 12 month (or until the majority of the population would have got it, which is a sound assumption as the disease is very infectious). That would have killed 160k in a year in Italy. Italy annual death number is about 650k. Sure, some of the people who died from COVID might have died anyway during the year. but even at 100k COVD 19 death, the difference is massive.
"There will be a lot of death"unknown quote
RNZ headline: "Covid-19: Electronic bracelet monitoring suggested for arrivals"
May i suggest instead: "Covid-19: Electronic bracelet monitoring suggested for David Clark"
re food prices up...New World charged me 90c for one mandarin last week!!!!
Did he come with tools and protective clothing?
powerdown... I gave you a thumbs up as well! Funny stuff
How patient/tolerant are the Generals;
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/04/06/covid-19-takes-out-a…
Equity markets surge!
I guess most people would agree that we are living a nightmare and that this is (and will be) worse than the 2008 GFC.
So how come the NZX50 (up 300% from the GFC) is still trading higher today?
Logic please anyone?
Short answer is that investors don't agree with the predictions of 'most people'.
No logic . Have been wondering the same for the last couple of weeks. The first NZX 25% drop I thought just brought the markets down to where they should have self-corrected before Covid. I was , and am, waiting for another 20%+ drop before jumping back in (actually a lot more after last weeks run up). If it doesn't I will not be crying because of it as I will not want to be involved in a market that has no respect for the fundamentals. Like Warren Buffett says..'I don't invest in something I don't understand'..or something like that!
As rightly said that stock market is having a relief rally and can be used minimize the loss by off loading the share and hold cash to buy in future.
Only hard to know how far the relief rally will run.
Any experts can comment/reply about the relief rally.
Peak Prosperity guy
Must see tv.
SB pulls no punches!
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