Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the relentless declines are building relentless economic problems.
The next regional manufacturing survey in the US is from the Dallas Fed and it paints a very pessimistic April picture and a record low at an index of -74. (In February 2020 that index was in positive territory.) This is deeper than their negative Beige Book survey just two weeks ago.
Aircraft maker Boeing said it will need more capital to survive. Just two weeks ago it said it had all it needed. And there is more evidence that the American food distribution chain is unravelling as producers work to keep their employees safe with social distancing and much lower output.
The new US $310 bln SME rescue package that is a top-up from an earlier one that was rorted by large businesses, has been overwhelmed and its application system crashed under the load.
In China, industrial profits at their large SOE companies fell -37% in March. This was not quite the -38% fall in February, but the extension into March when their virus emergency was coming under control indicates the long haul they are in to recover economically.
Worse, China's banks are in trouble with increasing numbers requiring state bailouts. But it is the nature of these bailouts that seems to add to risks, not reduce them.
In the shadow of the virus emergencies, China is pushing hard on its crackdown in Hong Kong, and its "nine-dash-line" claims in the South China Sea. Both are raising serious alarm.
In Europe, their aircraft maker Airbus also says it is in a fight just to survive. Their main current pullback is currently at a large UK facility.
In Australia, maintaining profits was a major consideration for the big four banks as they weighed whether to reduce mortgage rates in line with Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate cuts during 2019, their competition regulator, the ACCC has found.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,002,300 and up +48,000 from this time yesterday which is a slowing rate.
Now, over 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +17,000 since this time yesterday to 956,300. This is a slowing rate of increase too. US deaths now exceed 55,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 208,000. Russia now has more cases than China; in fact, nine other countries have more cases than China, and China will be pushed out of the top ten by Brazil next.
In Australia, there are now 6720 cases, 83 deaths and a recovery rate of 83%, all unchanged levels. 113 people are in hospital there with 43 in ICU.
There are now 1469 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with five new cases, one confirmed and four probable cases, yesterday compared the prior day's +9 increase. But 19 people have died, all geriatric patients. There are now seven people in hospital with the disease, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 80% and rising.
In equity markets, the S&P500 is up +1.3% in afternoon trading today. That comes after a much more enthusiastic rally in Europe, with most markets they up more than +2.5% overnight. Yesterday, key Asian markets were mixed with Shanghai up just +0.3%, Hong Kong up +1.9%, and Tokyo leading the way, up +2.7% on the day.
The UST 10yr yield firmer today by +4 bps at just under 0.65%. Their 2-10 curve is steeper at +42 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +21 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also steeper at just on +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.94% and up +4 bps overnight. The China Govt 10yr is little changed at 2.52%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also unchanged at 0.83%.
Gold is down -US$18 to US$1,712/oz.
Oil prices have fallen sharply today. They are currently at just under US$13.50/bbl, a dive of -US$3.50/barrel. International oil prices are down too, with the Brent benchmark just under US$20/bbl. The oil patch's woes are deepening with every day the market price is below the cost of extraction. We had previously noted that low oil prices undermine renewables investment, but actually, the big loser here is coal which is an industry that may never recover.
The Kiwi dollar firmed overnight against the greenback and now at 60.5 USc. On the cross rates it's a different story; we are down at 93.7 AUc and that is a five month low. Against the euro we are up at 55.9 euro cents and while that is not a big overnight move, it is now at a two week high. That means the TWI-5 is at 66.6, and now above our four-week average.
Bitcoin is little-changed overnight, now at US$7,674 and up less than +0.7%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
137 Comments
Tunnel is long to see the light. It will be a while.
Health crisis followed by economy crisis will be followed by agression from countries (war like situation).
Best advise in this uncertain time is to sit and protect your health and wealth while waiting for the corona tsunami to pass as worse is yet to come and are just witnessing the trailer and movie is still to begin - horror movie but can hope for happy ending.
The sharemarket recovery is looking more than the commonly used term of a ‘dead cat bounce’. It may be that term is more nuanced. I imagine if the fall is far enough, it does not matter if the cat was initially alive or dead (except for a little twitching). However a smaller fall may lead to loss of fur, compound fractures and burst internal organs. I recall asking my grandfather where the term ‘run like a cut cat’ comes from. He explained it involved a sack, with the corner cut out, a razor blade and no tranquilizer. (Fortunately have moved on from that even if we don’t like the vet bills). The 30% jump is looking like a cut cat but one that is bloodied, with a bust spleen and on three legs. I wonder how far poor old Tibbles is going to get?
someone educate me as to why equity markets are refusing to fall anymore -- i dont see any really good news -- just massive unemployment - which is going to get considerably worse when various global subsidy schemes pull back -- huge increases in borrowing and debt -- several large industries crippled for years possibly forever - -- defaltion or stagflation at best -- and a general slow down of everything everywhere
is it just printed money havign no other home to go to ?
Extremely unlikely Yvil. Last thing people will want to do right now is put their cash in something illiquid. The name of the game now is protecting capital, not putting it in overpriced high risk illiquid assets! And as soon as we hit Level 2, the average schmuck on the street is about to discover that we are in a credit crunch.
this is the time when investment properties are not a great investment, rents will fall and then it will also be a fight to get a good tenants that have good paying jobs. the supply and demand equation will reverse, we no longer need to import hoards of workers we have enough here and they will accept lower pay rates just to get a job. it will be interesting to see how many Airbnb properties get added to the rental pool
There's a hole horb of workers in Queenstown on short term visas having worked in hospitality. Probably picking their noses and can't get home. Now all the govt or AN OTHER need to do is to transport them to the Bay of Plenty where the kiwi fruit growers are wringing their hands as to where they can get workers. Then accommodation can be provided by the Kiwi Growers co-op whatever and I'm sure they have this for their usual seasonal workers from the Islands. Problem solved and they have a cheap source of labour. Social distancing no issue
Westpac now see RBNZ cutting the OCR to -0.5 percent in H2 with RBNZ floating idea at August meeting. Westpac of course will have completed its own capital raising by this time ,and updated its IT systems to accommodate a negative number or a future of negative mortgage rates.
You've made a good point, don't think about this too hard. Everything's upside down now, no one has any idea what's going to happen. Although it is fun speculating on what might, but at the end of the day there's so much anxiety and uncertainty, there's something to be said for not thinking too hard. The people just want to get on with life, have income, be able to pay bills and maybe spend helicopter money if we get it.
I was living in Aus when we got the govt handout. It was awesome! There was a real buzz, people were so happy, talking about what they'd spend it on. The psychological boost of giving people money cannot be underestimated. Anyway I've gone off on a tangent as heli money isn't confirmed.
It's not refusing to fall more, it just isn't falling more at this moment. This is the pattern we usually see and happened in every single other crash.
Currently markets do not know what to do or where to go, how to price risk or indeed, where the risk even is (maybe everywhere).
The Stock Market took 2-3 years to find bottom from 1929 so this could have a very long way to go and it is far too early to start suggesting anything!
What's refusing to fall is NZ petrol.
Melb has 91 fuel in the low to mid 80 cents.
Time for the responsible minister to wake up here and ask for a pls explain. Gaspy has it in Nth Akl at mid to high 190s.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian…
The Stock Market Is Not The Economy... And The S&P 500 Is Not The Stock Market
The five largest companies make up 20% of the S&P 500 market capitalization
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340073-stock-market-is-not-economy-an…
Goldman Says Narrow Breadth in S&P 500 a Bad Sign for Stocks
“Sharp declines in market breadth in the past have often signaled large market drawdowns”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-26/goldman-says-narrow-…
The stock markets are driven only by sentiment at the moment, as the bankruptcies start rolling in the shareholders will find how little their stocks are worth. Earnings seem to be irrelevant to stock investors, but there is always a point where cash dries up and no one is prepared to buy the debt. Im sure there will be a lot of downgrades to junk that will require a premium to service which in a recession will be somewhat difficult to service.
The number of unemployed also reflects a loss of consumers so there is a bit of a domino effect yet to come
I imagine it is money waiting for some good news. There has already been somewhat of a crash (my Kiwisaver balance is down a fair way for example), and traditionally this is a good time to buy. All it will take is a small bit of good news (vaccine hope, partial cure, COVID not as bad as thought, etc) and the market would probably go up rapidly. But no good news in the next few days/weeks/months and it will definitely drop...
"The alert, issued by NHS England, said there was "a growing concern" that a coronavirus-related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infection linked to these cases.
These young patients of varying ages were extremely ill. They had similar features to toxic shock syndrome, which can include a high temperature, low blood pressure, a rash and difficulty breathing".
Let's hope not eh?
Or we find out what a superb con job the government did on us in setting us up for more restrictions on our civil rights. I see the acqueiescence twice now at the hands of Jacinda as a quite stunning example of how effective propaganda can be. My bet is that it has been so effective that it makes the exit plan quite difficult. I think we'll see a steady decrease in the "reported" numbers each week to justify withdrawal from the lockdown. 3 months down the track we'll all know someone that has the virus but they won't be in the official statistics.
And notice how widely one has to dig for genuine journalistic discussion on why Australia's C19 data is approximately comparable to NZ's despite our control freak lockdown regime. On the 6pm TV collection of vacuous stories and 'journalist' opinions passed off as 'news' the divergence of approach has progressively become almost non existent with the responses from both governments increasingly pitched as being almost the same.
Why do people continue to point to a single data point (Australia) and think that is the most apt comparison? The vast majority of countries that failed to implement either thorough testing and contact tracing, or social distancing, have all faced a very similar outcome (very bad outcomes). Australia is a rare exception.
I think a very interesting kerfuffle will be the one that happens over contact tracing options. The same folk who have been saying "We should not be locked down, we should be South Korea, Taiwan etc." are the ones decrying as unfettered totalitarianism any hint of using GPS tracking to aid contact tracing.
Not sure how NZ can navigate that sort of ideological slant.
Won't work in NZ's different culture as IT based solutions require voluntary compliance. Already health officials monitoring isolation are reporting 'non compliance' ie people fibbing for various reasons. Even compulsory fixed ankle bracelet GPS wearers are tricky to monitor, cellphone or SIM card approaches would be voluntary.
Really scarfie? You view the governments response and a request to sit at home as a breach of your civil rights? I understand there are some that have different views on lockdown conditions, timing and so on but surely you must see the Govt's intentions as being pretty clear and well meaning - to save lives? Only the greatest of conspiracy theorists would suggest there was any hidden agenda. Why would a govt voluntarily succumb so many businesses and jobs to such significant impacts with these restrictions if they didn't think it was absolutely necessary?
There's no doubt they 'think it absolutely necessary'. That's a universal justification for all manner of freedom curbs and ultimately disastrous policy decisions . The jury is out on whether the 'saving lives' bit will be realised. Limited consideration of lives lost due to the horrendous economic cost about to be visited on us, has been made. At best it's a calculated gamble informed by models we now know to have contained flaws. Most people, including moi, think it's worth a try but this shouldn't be construed as not being a serious removal of our human rights.
Here's what I suggested in February: Mandatory three week quarantine in govt facilities for all overseas arrivals - returning Kiwis and PRs only, all others turned away. Appropriate distancing measures applied in the workplace, work from home wherever possible. Close contacts of any new cases go into quarantine with the overseas arrivals. Bring on additional healthcare staff to support covid caseload while maintaining existing services, can de-prioritise elective surgeries if needed. Govt to commandeer hotels and private healthcare facilities if stretched past capacity.
Firstly, it was not a request. The police are enforcing the order that you stay at home. Secondly, it is a breach of your rights. The Bill of Rights act guarantees freedom of movement within this country. The PM enacted emergency powers and removed this right. Whether there is a hidden agenda is neither here nor there. The issue as I see it is whether we as humans actually have "rights", inalienable and irrevocable, or whether they are just privileges granted to us by the all powerful government and removed at a whim the next moment.
The inflammatory effects have been quite widespread. It may be associated with the blood clotting issues many have experienced. In hospitals people have been getting extremely low blood oxygen readings when they are alert and active. So the clotting seems to affect extremities and has led to the orange toes, rashes and other issues while recovering from covid-19.
There are many unknowns which means that recklessly allowing the virus to spread (as some countries have chosen to do) presents a lot of danger to the population.
Of course, politics will play a key role in who goes all in with who. Another Op-Ed from a China hawk academic in New Zealand has argued Australian and New Zealand could join hands with Taiwan and smaller Pacific islands to reopen trade and tourism. One does not need much imagination to predict the economic/market fallout if that were to occur. Indeed, China’s ambassador to Australia has today openly warned if the Aussie government presses ahead with a “dangerous” public inquiry into the coronavirus pandemic it could spark a Chinese consumer boycott of beef and wine, tourism and education.
Needs must - current A/C deficit demands our subservience or sell the whole country to foreigners.
This perception may temper the former, but not the later.choice: Kiwi Headwinds Growing as RBNZ Keeps Option of Negative Rates.
We could be had for pennies on the dollar if the RBNZ persisits with it's policy direction.
QE is needed when money creation is the limitation to economic growth. At the moment the limitation is the government-imposed shutdown of much economic activity, especially small firms, which account for two thirds of all jobs. Link-scroll up
Some sensible boundaries are desperately needed here. The governor doesn't seem to see the potential for destruction without them. Do we really need to destroy the bond market? Do we really need to trigger capital flight? There is a case for monetising government overspending under certain conditions, just as there is a case for manipulating interest rates under certain conditions. Trouble is, emergency actions tend to ossify into destructive long term policy.
Can I hear "Don't cry for me Argentina" somewhere in the wind? Is Argentina really the country we wish to emulate in our monetary, fiscal and social policy?
One thinks a reset of our debt system could well be here Roger. We can add more debt, but what if we don't have the productive capacity to use it?
Dalio has been saying recently that you're basically a fool if you hold bonds. So what other 'safe' options do you have? Cash in the bank - um no guarantee here in NZ. Kiwibonds? Well once adjusted for inflation - it looks negative to me. Is gold the only option?
Dalio is often brilliant, but he has been dead wrong there. In a crisis the number one asset is USD. Treasury bonds are in a bull market. Cash is king in a crisis and the best cash is USD as it has most optionality and liquidity. Everyone will accept payment in USD. NZD, not so many. The USA is still the most powerful economy on the planet.
Certainly a re-think of the debt system is needed. Just because it has been abused doesn't mean it should be thrown out, though. Perhaps we should ask Mervyn King for advice.
As a newcomer to NZ, forgive my ignorance but aren't cash deposits government guaranteed? Or this proposed policy has not been implemented?
Where do I park my cash?
See: Government to introduce deposit protection regime that will likely cover 40% of funds in bank deposits; Treasury warns costs could fall on bank customers, shareholders and taxpayers https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/100359/government-signs-principle-de…
And also next door. China has 6 dams on the upper Mekong River and 1 inside Laos. It is in a position to effectively blackmail Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam by substantially reducing river flows by stockpiling water behind its dams, impacting on fishing and agriculture in the flood plain areas of those countries. Occurred during drought conditions earlier this year, and will be of greater significance if future snowfalls and melts in the Himilayas decrease.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/world/asia/china-mekong-drought.html
Scarfie, what do you think of the other view?.
The CCP is brittle and beatable.
Dr Edward Luttwak
https://youtu.be/sEhuZmxPk6Q
China is really in the same situation as Saudi Arabia found themselves in, their economy is built on the back of the US Consumer. That future is now looking very different and China is going to find itself in trouble. Although one thing to watch is the speed at which they are building warships.
You know my long term view on the nature of interest and how it effects the economic cycles. China is not exempt. Everyone keeps printing, the velocity keep dropping, and we run the system off a cliff. Really I posted the link because of the mention of NZ.
I've said it here for a few years now that the USA does't really need to go to war, it can leave others to do the bickering. That would include China. For China it is about projecting power within Asia. Lettwuk makes a good point about antagonising its neigbours, they are not big enough to bully India. George Friedman said quite a while back that China will always struggle to maintain internal stability. They've blown a bubble just like everyone else and that should keep them busy. Seems greed is universal across cultures.
China is really in the same situation as Saudi Arabia found themselves in, their economy is built on the back of the US Consumer.
Saudia Arabia and China are not comparable:
You see, even such oil ignoramuses like me knew that Saudis are minor players in this game because only people with nukes, navies, air forces and complex industrial economies of scale are major players. Well, guess what:
China boosts oil imports from Russia, while slashing purchases from Saudi Arabia
It is kinda self-evident that it is not enough to have product, one has to sell it, has market for it that is, and Russia has her markets, while Saudis are having a hell of a time trying to hold on to ones they...ahem, had. Don't trust me: Link
Saudi Arabia provided the fuel for the bubble, and invested the profits into it. They are trapped alright, and they've known for a long time. China helped build the bubble through overshoot in production, now sure how they will get out of that one. Still trapped in the same bubble, but yes less trapped than a nation living in a desert with little resouces but oil.
What will Russia take as payment? Surely they can't pick up all the suplus production?
When I made the comment I was thinking of the problem with the Eurodollar outlined by Snider.
Yes, but the chinese are also aware many nations are viewing with alarm the consequences of having outsourced their supply chains to china. Bejing is acutely conscious of Japans current and overt moves to bring back strategic component manufacturing to the homeland. They will have noticed how NZ was able, with surprising efficacy, to find alternative markets for much of the meat exports that would normally go to China, during its C19 lockdown. The rising chorus of voices in NZ questioning whether we want mass chinese tourism to continue won't have escaped its attention. A Chinese boycott could backfire if countries like NZ decide they can live with smaller but less china dependent economies.
Strange as it may be the USA administration of Japan (yes MacArthur no less) post WW2 might now produce its greatest dividend. Coupled with Taiwan and Sth Korea there is an industrial , commercial & financial bloc of considerable size, competitive and alternative to China regionally. Seventy five years on, strategically Japan might too get the green light for re-armament. Think at present they are only able to maintain defensive ability but that can be ramped up one would think.
Yep. Japan has over recent years ramped up its defence forces considerably. China will also by now be aware if the world has been rendered a better place by the death of vile Kim jong un. A North Korean leadership power struggle leading to potential reunification presents a significant strategic challenge to Beijing.
Oil prices have fallen sharply today
Indeed:
Oil Tumbles As Traders Frontrun USO Liquidation Of Entire June Exposure
200,000 Retail Investors Hoping To Buy The F**king Dip In USO End Up Just Getting F**ked
Ben Hunt, Epsilon
https://www.epsilontheory.com/bear-stearns-and-the-narratives-of-system…
One frightening exert which shows how f**ked up the system is, yes you read that right, they start with a t:
According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the bank holding companies of those same five banks as of December 31, 2019 were sitting on astronomical levels of highly combustible derivatives: in notional (face amount) of derivatives, JPMorgan Chase held $46.4 trillion; Citigroup held $40.8 trillion; Goldman Sachs Group had $39.6 trillion; Morgan Stanley sat on $32.5 trillion while Bank of America held $30.4 trillion. These five banks represented 83 percent of all derivatives held by the more than 5,000 Federally-insured banks in the U.S.
Maybe a boycott by China would finally open eyes as to the folly of being overly dependent on a totalitarian regime for your economy. This is a two way street there would also be costs on china for such an action after all they have assets in these countries as well that are vulnerable to internal supply from primary producers and other service providers. As well as political risk from governments unhappy with being threatened and bullied.
Enlighten us as to how such a boycott would be initiated. I'm particularly interested in what you envisage NZ would look like with 25% of our exports already going through tourism and education dying, followed by most of dairy and log exports destroyed under your proposal.
Our dairy and logs are barely processed so they sell or could be sold on an international market. We know China can stop tourism - they did it with to Korea and we know they can cause planes to turn around in mid-flight because they did it to us last year. They can delay unloading ships with invented bureaucracy too. What I really doubt is China not importing logs or dairy from anyone so in the event of an unfortunate boycott we sell to the international market and some clever business buys from us, changes the labels and sells to China. We lose some profit margin but keep trading.
I am not advocating a boycott but if china as it has threatened to do to Australia advocates a boycott of products or services from Australia then it may look not only at boycotting products from nz but instruct it's entities in nz to lower payouts to suppliers. This could be done quite easily especially as some large processors here are in partnership with chinese owners or are owned outright by them . Make no mistake the ccp would have no worries about this course of action.
Looks like NZ containment of the virus has been celebrated as a success around the world now that we're coming out of level 4. BBC Coronavirus: New Zealand claims no community cases as lockdown eases.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52436658
Thank goodness we had Labour in power and not the Nats. :)
Ahem. You comrade are heading for a thought correction camp if you continue questioning the dear leader. Next you'll be saying she boasted NZ's response was gold standard when the official record shows she actually said we were only 'heading' to gold standard. The final seal on you getting a ticket to the gulag will be if you even hint she was confused about the difference between elimination and eradication.
ifs and buts,
we went late to close the borders, and the reason the amount of people to get back in, we even had some stooped muppets leaving the week of lockdown and are now sitting overseas moaning at our government that they cant get back in.
if we had locked the border early, got rid of the cruise ships early, got the tourist out early, put all those coming back in 40000 in government quarantine would we have stopped the outbreak earlier and been able to go along at level two
i dont think so because two of the biggest clusters, bluff was an air new Zealand flight attendant and marist school ( they still dont know the index case) could have still happened and in level two could have spread even further
so BUT we did stop it in its tracks and now have no community transmission (touch wood) now we have an economic situation to deal with, and the key to that is moving to level two as quickly as possible and hopefully opening up a bubble with Australia and the islands, if so then this part of the world will recover quicker than elsewhere
Yes, agreed; ifs and buts, and easy to hindsight judge fog of war decisions. But a weak cabinet including a deeply incompetent health minister, the arrogant flaunting by Peters of the freedom he had to fish off his front lawn while much of NZ was locked down in deeply stressed shoeboxes and Ardern's mix of scout troop leader and infantilising hyperbole do not inspire confidence as we approach the biggest national test of most of our lifetimes.
The alternative would likely have been more resistant to shutting down travel from China, international students etc.
However, aside from our partisan rantings, we should be realistic about the fact that both major parties saw the same data and were in favour of lockdown at the same time.
Belle, yes, the PM and her dept needed follow the existing pandemic plan..... the thinking had been done years earlier....
The NZ pandemic plan says a Government best go early (rather than just say so). The plan says, don't wait for global situation to become clear.
https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/new-zealand-influenza-pandemic-p…
The Government would decide which course of action to take. Any decision might require strong action to be taken initially, until such time as the global situation became clearer.
The reasoning for this is that measures can always be relaxed, but if certain measures are not put in place at the first opportunity, the option to escalate may no longer be available.
Page 119.
And
Use of isolation and quarantine for border management
The modelling undertaken for New Zealand suggests that the most effective single intervention at the border to prevent or delay the introduction of a pandemic virus into New Zealand would be to minimise numbers of incoming travellers. Travel restrictions and the use of facility-based quarantine, supplemented by antivirals, would give New Zealand the best opportunity to restrict the number of cases introduced into the community and successfully contain the disease’s spread...
This edition of the New Zealand Influenza Pandemic Plan reflects the sophistication of a third-generation, risk-based plan that promotes collaboration across all levels of government, agencies and organisations when planning for, responding to and recovery form a pandemic event. Aspects of this plan are directive, requiring entities and organisations across government, within the health and disability sector and in the community to enter into arrangements and
partnerships, develop plans, manage risks, and build capabilities to strengthen the resilience of New Zealand.
Chai Chuah
Director-General of Health
The drought, oh what a drought, we are still going backwards. I'm getting browner by the day, grass is slowly giving up, trees are wilting. Up by the mountains there are springs that never dry up that haven't flowed for 4 months now, farmers are running out of water. Friend sold steers he has had for a year and thought he had made $30 a head but ends up he lost $40.
This is spiraling out of control for many farming through it. Ho do you budget when it's getting so close to winter, where can you buy in feed from, is it economic or do you just keep killing lighter and lighter animals, when do you quit capital stock. What's happening in markets, how do I rebuild herds when it does rain without losing an arm?
In the USA /Canada the kill has been interrupted and thousands of animals backed up will soon become millions, how do you see away through this mess?
What's happened to' the market', have governments taken it outside and shot it?
Yep hoped for rain last night - maybe got 1 mm of the 7mm forecast - beautiful clear warm day here on the west coast.
Just sold our lifestyle block, sold the 12 R2 steers for a loss to the incoming owners as there was nowhere else to send them. Sales are shut, too small for the works, and no one else has any grass. Still buying in hay to feed them as well.
Hope is the one thing that can keep you going, but it sounds like that is drying up as fast as the grass. This is quickly turning into the dust bowl/depression of the 1930s.
Andrew based on the problem solving ability of our leaders they will try and print their way out of the drought (surely we can just print some rain). Second option would be they follow the real estate technique and engage met service to forecast some rain for you.
Andrew - we have had a little rain. Just enough to knock the crickets back and kick the new grass off. Like you I was sitting here stressing out about the 'lost opportunity' of the falling schedule on my cattle sales. The processors are taking advantage of the current glut of cattle. Boners down to just above $3.00kg. Finally decided to unload whatever the price and start again next season. Now decision made getting better sleep. At least until our next bank review.
Rain coming this weekend. Looks like a good dose. If its too late or doesnt get to your area Aj it will benefit many and that will help with the store price.
The situation in the states looks frightening. Imagine owning pigs cattle or chooks ready for slaughter, and no slaughter facilities are open. Culling stock and dumping will wreck businesses obviously. Lets hope our processors remain open. I dont see us out of the woods yet by a long shot.
they have been very poor at forecasting rain more than 3 or 4 days out. They rain for early next week is already being trimmed back. We are due 25mls on the 3rd 4th but this has been happening a lot. Rain forecast from the Nth east and then turning to Sth, that Southerly only has to get a little ahead of itself and it's all gone. Im not betting on it, this pattern has proven to be worthless this year.
I've had a couple of '10 acre Life Sentence' blocks over the years; waiting for subdivision possibility and none have been, or have the approval to subdivide - to this day. Why? Because so many other people also had them that if subdivision was allowed it would swamp the market with 1/4 acre blocks, and guess what would happen to property prices?! The only one that has Approval was the 100 acre one, and that...didn't get chopped up into 4, but got turned into a private golf course by the next owner, Russell Coutts! ( being a pretend farmer is beyond hard work; one Bad Season out of 5 and you're a gonna if it comes before the Good One that allows you to survive)
The dire predictions of chinese supply lines being crippled by C19 are not being experienced by us. I recently mentioned a full container load we ordered from one of our suppliers and out of interest have been tracking the progress of this one. I've just viewed the standard proof photos of it being packed and despatched and final payment has been made. It will arrive here on time, as per the normal delivery time lines.
Short answer is their government lies through its back teeth. The virus escaping from China is a massive loss of face in a country with a culture that is deeply shamed by failures such as this. The current south china seas sabre rattling is an unsurprising manifestation of the need of the CCP to demonstrate to its own population that it remains a significant player on the world stage.
Somewhere in the recesses of my disturbed mind there is a thought that lab created viruses have specific DNA fingerprints identifying them as cultured variants, as distinct from those 'naturally' occurring. Can one of the many knowledgeable scientific contributors enlighten me please?
that is the current thought that it escaped from the lab and the wet market was a ruse, the index cases had no contact with the market but did have indirect contact with the lab, and US intelligence has been looking into it ( us intelligence with trump in charge LOL)
at first i went Hmmm it was just nature, but when the Chinese came out and said it was the US that had spread it inside china that made me think again
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/how-did-the-coronavirus-s…
Seems highly likely that a lab known to be researching bat corona viruses is the source for a bat corona virus outbreak when the native source of said bats is more than 1000km distant. Many early cases were not linked to wet market. There is oodles of evidence of chinese cover up - public domain info since hidden that also points to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVESJhgko6M
You know MM that lingers & lurks with me too. The Chinese got a hold of the Japanese Unit 731 (too inhuman to describe) that had created 10000’s of death in China, typhus, cholera. The aim was to hit US ports on the pacific. Then if you look at the Korean war the Colonel Schwable incident, accusing the USA of preparing to drop the same on Nth Korea, you start to realise that this horrendous spectre has been there in the powers that be psyche for quite a while indeed.
IO ..... yes, I had thought of that ...but the point is everyone ie MSM harp on about is how robust and secure the NZ banks are, while if they were that good shape, they could wear the cost of the insurance ...so just how "robust" are these banks then ?
They moan if there is a reduction in their profits .....when their customers right now are watching their cash flows reduce and losses will follow ......it's a CRAZY world !!
Talking with one one of my suppliers, an engineering firm that has had a staff of 30. They've lost 20% of their business in the lockdown and will have the staff back on 4 days per week. They can't let staff go while they are getting the 12 weeks of support, but it is highly likely they will after that. These are the good guys, a solid firm I've seen expand over 20 years and are one of the real busiensses that make stuff. If they are hurting the pain from this is going to go far and wide.
Scarfie. Attitudes to employment will change. Most employees are beginning to understand we are transitioning to a labour oversupply. Nonsense such as the recent case of a stop go guy suing for $80K because of hurt feelings when he was disciplined for serious incompetence, will be less common. The charade employers are forced to go through when it is evident to all that a person needs to move on, will be less necessary when the recession caused redundancy option is available. Productivity will increase and absenteeism less common.
"We had previously noted that low oil prices undermine renewables investment, but actually, the big loser here is coal which is an industry that may never recover."
Indeed... Low prices begets low prices.
The economy is setup to run off a mix of energy sources so this is a big problem
Therejust aren't enough viable consumers to lift commodity prices up at scale
Outstanding credit card debt just had its largest monthly fall on record in March ($481m – previous record $182m in Jan 2015, but January falls are normal) and also its largest year-on-year fall ($383m – previous largest were June 2016 $61m and September 2009 $50m).
Fritz,
For those of us who don't monitor that number, can you put that number in some context for us.
1) how does that look relative to pre covid 19 levels?
2) how does that look relative to historical levels for this time of year? (i.e to allow for seasonality)
Thank you in advance.
Having experienced SARS firsthand in Asia, masks are useful.
Masks may or may not reduce air transmission.
One of the ways that the virus infects people is via people touching their own face, after their hands may have touched an infected surface (such as door handle, elevator button, etc). What mask wearing does is remind people to not touch their face and for people to keep their hands away from their face until their hands have been washed or sanitized with hand sanitizer. A person might go to touch their face out of habit and then remember that they are wearing a face mask, so keep their hands away from their face.
In countries such as Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, mask wearing is very common - and infection rates have been kept low. In Western countries such as Italy, US, UK, mask wearing was low (or non existent), and infection rates have been higher. In Western societies, there is a social stigma with mask wearing.
The big differences between SARS and COVID 19 are:
1) COVID 19 carriers are asymptomatic and hence difficult to detect (unlike SARS carriers who were all symptomatic)
2) COVID 19 currently has no proven treatment protocol that I'm aware of. SARS had Tamiflu.
In Hong Kong, pre SARS, face mask wearing was uncommon, and socially unacceptable. Post SARS, face mask wearing became socially acceptable.
Anti or pro sentiment for any of the global powers will get nz no where.
"Our" economy stopped being "ours" a long time ago, if it ever was "ours " to begin with.
Polarized views are not constructive. Mass media is owned, and contorted, largely categorized as entertainment.
Truly constructive discussion helps those involved examine situations, and ideally, goes someway to helping navigate a world that makes little sense.
To that end, I found this forum full of people with questions, people with great expertise and insight, people passing on informative links, and people that offer personal insight to their actual daily experience.
It's true, I'm simply saying "thanks" to the producers, and contributors (articles and comments) of interest.co.nz
Anyone willing to put a bet? who's the buyer going to be?: (hints, to previous CCP upper echelon relations)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/121284015/sir-john…
Here's what going to happen to OZ/NZ, UK, Canada, the same as US which all rely on the F.I.RE economy:
https://tinyzonetv.to/watch-movie/watch-the-china-hustle-2018-free-5940…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.