Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more tough data releases.
The American merchandise trade deficit rose to -US$59.7 bln in March from February as exports slumped more than imports. That was the same level as for March 2019 indicating zero 'progress' for the year.
In fact, worldwide, aircargo volumes fell sharply in February, and by April so much flight capacity was taken out of service, there is now a severe shortage.
The US Conference Board consumer sentiment survey plunged further in April, following its sharp decline in March. In fact, the present situation sub-index is at its lowest on record, and its overall index is at a six year low.
The Redbook survey tracking of retail sales shows them -8.1% lower in March than the same month a year ago, a very weak entry to the pandemic weeks ahead.
Mirroring these consumer surveys is the Richmond Fed's factory survey for the powerhouse Mid-Atlantic states region had its largest one-month drop on record, and to a record low.
A quarter of Americans now say they either have or expect to lose their jobs, a level never before recorded.
The US Fed is still widening its eligibility criteria from whom it will buy bonds, allowing more than 200 more local governments to participate.
In China, electricity consumption fell -5% in March from the same month a year ago, a sharp reversal but less than expected and far less than the much sharper drop in February. They now expect will year 2020 to show a rise in electricity consumption.
And staying in China, they revealed that demand for gold has plunged by 50% in the March quarter compared to the same period a year ago. That means the gold market missed about -150 tonnes of demand, a globally significant shift.
In Australia, consumer confidence has stopped falling, even if only marginally, but is still at a record low level.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,083,500 and up +81,200 from this time yesterday which is a rising rate.
Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +46,200 since this time yesterday to 1,002,500. This is a faster rate of increase and more than half the global infections are in the US. US deaths now exceed 57,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 214,000. Russia now has more cases than both Iran and China now in a very fast rise. Sweden is also rising fast, about to go through 20,000 cases and a death rate of 12%. It's neighbour's death rates are Norway 2.7%, Denmark 4.9% and Finland 4.2%, all on very much lower infection rates.
In Australia, there are now 6731 cases (+11), 84 deaths (+1) and a stable recovery rate of 84%. 109 people are in hospital there (-4) with 43 in ICU (-1).
There are 1472 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with +3 new cases yesterday and more than the prior day's zero increase (net zero). Nineteen people have died, unchanged, all geriatric patients. There are now 9 people in hospital with the disease here, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 82% and rising.
In equity markets, the S&P500 is virtually unchanged in afternoon trading today as they wait for some signature earnings reports. That comes after the enthusiastic rally in Europe extended with most markets they up another +1.5% overnight. Yesterday, key Asian markets were mixed with Shanghai and Tokyo flat, but Hong Kong up strongly. But it was the NZX50 that starred yesterday, up an impressive +3.3% while the ASX200 closed marginally lower.
The UST 10yr yield softer today by -4 bps at just under 0.61%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally flatter at +39 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +20 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also marginally flatter at just under +53 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.92% and down -2 bps overnight. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.52%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is sharply lower, down -9 bps to 0.74% which is a remarkable 18 bps lower than the equivalent Aussie Government bond.
Gold is down -US$3 to US$1,709/oz.
Oil prices are slightly lower again today. They are currently at just on US$13/bbl, a small -US$0.50 net dip, although they did fall to US$10/bbl at one point overnight in wild swings. Oil tanker charter prices are jumping as producers scramble to find storage for a product no-one wants at present. International oil prices are even less changed from this time yesterday with the Brent benchmark now just under US$20.50/bbl. Nigeria and Venezuela are having very hard times finding customers.
The Kiwi dollar has firmed overnight against the greenback and is now at 60.7 USc. On the cross rates it's a different story; we are down at 93.2 AUc and that is another -½c dip. Against the euro we are still firm at 56 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 66.6, and above our four-week average.
Bitcoin is now at US$7,748 and up +1% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.