Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more tough data releases.
The American merchandise trade deficit rose to -US$59.7 bln in March from February as exports slumped more than imports. That was the same level as for March 2019 indicating zero 'progress' for the year.
In fact, worldwide, aircargo volumes fell sharply in February, and by April so much flight capacity was taken out of service, there is now a severe shortage.
The US Conference Board consumer sentiment survey plunged further in April, following its sharp decline in March. In fact, the present situation sub-index is at its lowest on record, and its overall index is at a six year low.
The Redbook survey tracking of retail sales shows them -8.1% lower in March than the same month a year ago, a very weak entry to the pandemic weeks ahead.
Mirroring these consumer surveys is the Richmond Fed's factory survey for the powerhouse Mid-Atlantic states region had its largest one-month drop on record, and to a record low.
A quarter of Americans now say they either have or expect to lose their jobs, a level never before recorded.
The US Fed is still widening its eligibility criteria from whom it will buy bonds, allowing more than 200 more local governments to participate.
In China, electricity consumption fell -5% in March from the same month a year ago, a sharp reversal but less than expected and far less than the much sharper drop in February. They now expect will year 2020 to show a rise in electricity consumption.
And staying in China, they revealed that demand for gold has plunged by 50% in the March quarter compared to the same period a year ago. That means the gold market missed about -150 tonnes of demand, a globally significant shift.
In Australia, consumer confidence has stopped falling, even if only marginally, but is still at a record low level.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,083,500 and up +81,200 from this time yesterday which is a rising rate.
Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +46,200 since this time yesterday to 1,002,500. This is a faster rate of increase and more than half the global infections are in the US. US deaths now exceed 57,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 214,000. Russia now has more cases than both Iran and China now in a very fast rise. Sweden is also rising fast, about to go through 20,000 cases and a death rate of 12%. It's neighbour's death rates are Norway 2.7%, Denmark 4.9% and Finland 4.2%, all on very much lower infection rates.
In Australia, there are now 6731 cases (+11), 84 deaths (+1) and a stable recovery rate of 84%. 109 people are in hospital there (-4) with 43 in ICU (-1).
There are 1472 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with +3 new cases yesterday and more than the prior day's zero increase (net zero). Nineteen people have died, unchanged, all geriatric patients. There are now 9 people in hospital with the disease here, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 82% and rising.
In equity markets, the S&P500 is virtually unchanged in afternoon trading today as they wait for some signature earnings reports. That comes after the enthusiastic rally in Europe extended with most markets they up another +1.5% overnight. Yesterday, key Asian markets were mixed with Shanghai and Tokyo flat, but Hong Kong up strongly. But it was the NZX50 that starred yesterday, up an impressive +3.3% while the ASX200 closed marginally lower.
The UST 10yr yield softer today by -4 bps at just under 0.61%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally flatter at +39 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +20 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also marginally flatter at just under +53 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.92% and down -2 bps overnight. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.52%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is sharply lower, down -9 bps to 0.74% which is a remarkable 18 bps lower than the equivalent Aussie Government bond.
Gold is down -US$3 to US$1,709/oz.
Oil prices are slightly lower again today. They are currently at just on US$13/bbl, a small -US$0.50 net dip, although they did fall to US$10/bbl at one point overnight in wild swings. Oil tanker charter prices are jumping as producers scramble to find storage for a product no-one wants at present. International oil prices are even less changed from this time yesterday with the Brent benchmark now just under US$20.50/bbl. Nigeria and Venezuela are having very hard times finding customers.
The Kiwi dollar has firmed overnight against the greenback and is now at 60.7 USc. On the cross rates it's a different story; we are down at 93.2 AUc and that is another -½c dip. Against the euro we are still firm at 56 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 66.6, and above our four-week average.
Bitcoin is now at US$7,748 and up +1% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
176 Comments
I'm sure Trump would be happy to sell his kingdom if he could make a tidy profit too bad for him he's proved to be such a lousy business man not to mention a president. With more than 1,002,000 and some 56,700 dead Americans from the coronvirus, Trump is still ordering people back to work.
He recently order the meat-processing plants to stay open and this has raise questions about how workers will remain safe on factory floors. At this rate Trump won't have much of a voter base because they'll all be dead.
I think it is becoming pretty clear that the 'peace' (depression level economic shutdown) will cause far more damage in lives lost through impoverishment, social ills and destroyed happiness than the 'war' would have. Antibody testing is showing far fewer deaths (IFR) than feared. NY shows ~0.5% mostly geriatric die, that's equivalent to 5 months of normal deaths. That wasn't obvious a month back but makes it sensible to resume normal life ASAP.
To put 57000 deaths in perspective, the US had 87000 deaths from flu/pneumonia in 2017 (mainly geriatric). NZ has on average 550 deaths pa from flu/pneumonia (mainly geriatric) so the economic cost of our current action is considered by some to be way out of proportion to the benefits. It will be a gloomy year ahead for the major cohort affected by the economic carnage - the young working age adults of NZ. They will never recover the lost incomes & savings that they otherwise could have had. Furthermore, many of them are on mortgage "holidays"which means their interest is now compounding and will still have to be paid to the dreaded banks. The burger flipper and her arts graduate finance minister colleague (both on multi-hundreds of thousands salaries) are causing havoc.
Flu vaccines seem to be 20% to 60% effective according to the CDC:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm
So, they help, but only so much. Big Pharma love them of course, as they are a recurring revenue stream, so this official "data" may very well overstate their effectiveness. The CDC has got to protect the tribe. It is a smoke and mirrors world.
I've known the 30-60% success rate of flu vaccine since the outset of this, but have had to shut my trap as the majority seem to still be convinced we can eliminate it. They are pinning their hopes that a vaccine will become available. I think there is a fat rats chance of eliminating it.
which begs the question -so how do we ever open our borders again .... EVER? after all the policy is eradication or elimination depending on how you contort those words --- so if there is no failsafe or close to it vaccine - we are basically closed as a country - nobody will be coming her to pay for two weeks in a hotel room without the ability to go outside -- so we essentially become what - teh next Cuba ?
The really wealthy may come if confined to a top resort or yacht for 14 days - an executive standard exclusive quarantine. When we learn more about the virus that randomly selected 14 days may become 7 or 11 (nb Quarantine is derived from the 40 days vessels would wait just outside port during the black death).
Some years they aren't very effective, probably because a strain of flu became prevalent in the population that wasn't in the vaccine.
Most years they are around 50 to 60% effective. If you can get a large percentage of people vaccinated, that amount of immunity drastically cuts down on community transmission.
Note that the fluvax contains vaccines against 3-4 of the most expected strains.
I've been giving them for 20 years, work with care homes, and I can assure you that vaccinating the staff and the residents reduces my workload hugely.Maybe 5000 vaccines given.
Note that asymptomatic transmission is reduced by the vaccine.
Side effects of note? one young woman had a high fever for a day after the shot 10 years ago
An excellent risk/benefit ratio.
Companies are on to it; they will pay you to vaccinate all the staff, it's cheaper for them to do that than have one key worker off with influenza.
If you do get influenza, it is pretty miserable, and you may be run down for months and be much more prone to get every other cold/corona that is going that season so absenteeism and general misery are reduced
A Vaccine in pill form, targeting the mucous lining (where the virus is rather than the blood where the virus is not) is here:
https://www.stabilitech.com/orapro-covid-19/
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/06/uk-biotech-developing-oral-corona…
as you would expect; the company is struggling to get traction with HVI or Governments.
... Not all vaccines are equal.
all these cryptos created out of thin air, that get the buy in of dumb people who pretend it has value and sell between each other.
Nothing physical to hold on to like cash or gold, no government backing like real currencies. Cant think what could possibly go wrong......
Physical cash is effectively dead. Try using paper cash over the last week. Nobody will touch it. Look to China for the future who is unveiling their own digital (likely blockchain based) currency. The governments are learning that they can create money out of thin air just as easily. So then the question is what do you trust more, the governments and their infinite money printers, or open sourced public code backed by consensus based, censorship proof mathematics?
In 2013 a friend suggested that I look into crypto. Bitcoin was at about $400. I reflexively dismissed him with a soundbite I had heard somewhere, tulips or thin air, something like that. A few years ago after hearing a fascinating podcast about the future of money and how there is now an alternative that exists outside of the legacy system, which has failed so many and continues to erode our wealth rapidly throught inflation (they tell us it's 1-2%, and adust our wages, benefits and interest rates accordingly, when any astute consumer knows that it's actually like 6-8%, if you count things that people actaully spend a large percentage of their money on, like housing). I looked into bitcoin further and read 'The Bitcoin Standard - The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking' by economist Saifedean Ammous. It was revelatory. I decided to gain some modest exposure to this 'asymetric asset', meaning that I could only lose what I invest (therefore not to invest more than I could lose), but with an unlimited upside potential. Standard advice being 1-5% of one's portfolio. That investment inspired me to read further, and as they say, you come for the gains, but stay for the tech. I'm not recommending that anyone invest in bitcoin, but only to do some research and read a book or two, or perhaps some articles (Medium has quite a few). That way you can argue for or against it based on its actual merits and flaws, rather than repeating old tropes about thin air or tulips. Like it or not, blockchain technology, of which bitcoin is the largest and most successful iteration, will change the world. And millenials love it, as a recenet Charles Schwab survey found that GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) was the fourth most poplular equity asset held by millenials, ahead of Netflix and Microsoft. And as the legacy system has left them with crumbs, it's not hard to guess where a lot of their boomer inheritence will be going.
Wonderfully expressed. The tulips / thin air stuff can be distracting but it's actually a window into how most people think about bitcoin and cryptocurrency. And I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong, but the flippancy of the argument is stark.
And I agree, most people would be wise to allocate 1-5% of savings in crypto assets. Mind you, the vehicles to do that are limited at the moment and the finance industry has little to gain from ticket clipping comparatively speaking.
Something up in Singapore...
Scaling up. Making 18,000 beds for isolation.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-more-than-18-00…
SINGAPORE: The healthcare capacity to deal with COVID-19 will be increased significantly in the next two months, with the total number of bed spaces for those with mild symptoms doubling by end-June.
The ramping up of bed spaces at these community care facilities is part of a wider strategy which includes increasing capacity in other facilities, as well as in manpower, said authorities at a briefing on Tuesday (Apr 28).
It looks like they are quarantining those with mild symptoms. I wouldn't worry too much. They have been let down by their foreign workeres probably living in crowded and substandard accommodation. Singapore has a bit of an ugly underbelly.
The vast majority of new cases are Work Permit holders residing in foreign worker dormitories. Of the 528 new cases yesterday only 8 cases are Singaporeans/ Permanent Residents.
Has Thomas C got a case of Trump Derangement Syndrome?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/121309581/coronavirus-donald-trumps-atta…
OPINION: As Donald Trump blunders through his life and career, he's bound to occasionally make the right decision, even if for the wrong reason.
His hawkish approach to China is born out of a base nativism that tends towards bigotry. While New Zealand policymakers rightly complain that it undermines the "rules-based international order", plenty of diplomats and trade wonks concede that China is no saint when it comes to those very same rules – some even welcome a shake-up.
Um, rewrite,
There is some international support for Trumps actions regarding WHO.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuff_(company)
Stuff is owned by Nine Entertainment in Australia.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Entertainment_Co.
"Rules based International order". What a joke. As Ritchie did his entire career, you only obey the rules the bosses make you obey. Nobody, except of course NZ, obeys them, except when it suits them, and they are only mentioned when shouting about someone else disobeying them. China uses and manipulates them as and when it sees fit to increase it's sphere of influence, but it is finding out that when it lends aid money to corrupt governments all around the world, who's functionaries then promptly steal it, it actually can't force people who never saw the money to pay it back. Luckily, as a Chinese gentleman told me, the only reason the Chinese armed forces exist is to extract corrupt payments off anyone the can get to pay them, and as a system of defence or attack, they are woefully deficient. Example; a small island off the coast going it's own way since 1948, I think. China's place in the world has reached it's peak, and is now slowly swirling round the plughole, and it will settle whereever it settles, somewhat lower than it pretends to be at present. As Nationalism grows and Internationalism, with it''s corrupt Crony Capitalist global business mates take a hammering over the next few years, and people look to support their own countrypeople and local businesses, China's economy will shrink accordingly. Looking from NZ, the whole thing will be full of entertainment and opportunities, as a lot of the world still can't feed themselves from their own resources.
"Rules based International order". What a joke
Exactly:
People who say 'rules-based order' are NOT talking about an int'l law-based order, though that's what they want you to think. 'Rules' means American rules only. Rules-based order is a liberal world order. Americans use the phrase to mean "I can kill you, you can never retaliate." Link-scroll up
Sky News laments erosion of ‘rules-based international order’ but does such a thing really exist?
It gives a bit of a false impression to say Sweden's cases are "rising fast". New cases rising modestly perhaps however deaths are markedly down for the last week at 590 compared to the week before at 732.
The number of people in ICU has remained flat while 250 ICU beds are empty. The emergency field hospitals they set up have not been used.
The main failure was in not protecting aged care facilities with 86% of deaths occurring in those aged over 70. If more care had been taken with stopping visitors and staff wearing decent PPE the figures there would have been considerably fewer deaths.
Over the last six weeks Sweden has seen an extra number of deaths of around ten per day on average.
Zachary,
Do you believe that Sweden has done a better job than we have? With a population of roughly double ours, then had we gone down the same path, we could have expected to see a little over 1000 deaths by now, primarily amongst the elderly. Would this have been acceptable to allow most people to go about their normal business?
I am currently taking a short course in Global Ethics from the Open University and this is surely a classic ethical issue. Where does the balance lie? There will undoubtedly be consequences from the shutdown of the economy-economic obviously, but also in terms of social dislocation, mental and physical health issues etc. The questions are easier than the answers. We have chosen a particular route and in so doing, have been able to keep the death toll to a very low figure, but at great and rising cost to our economy. What would you have done?
On the other hand road traffic accidents were much reduced during the lockdown (zero Easter road toll!) and with tourists gone that should continue to a certain extent. Also reduced were recreational and workplace accidents, and probably drunken street brawls and pub fight casualties as well. And the seasonal flu tracker is well below normal - isolation and improved hygiene should reduce the incidence of a lot of contagious diseases.
I have previously mentioned on here of the Melbourne oncology ward who continued to treat cancer patients, then several contracted and died of the virus, so it had to be closed. Cancer treatment makes you incredibly immuno-compromised. The virus is highly contagious, so many health services risk assessed that the cancer treatment during this pandemic was too risky. Most of that risk is because of the high number of asymptomatic cases, which makes it almost impossible to ensure that you are not introducing the virus to this vulnerable group on a hospital ward. Even with full PPE and adhering to quarantine protocols health staff have very high rates of infection, so the staff themselves would be a danger to those with cancer.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/victorian-coronavirus-death-in-m…
maybe you should check the figures swedens deaths are up by 34% over normal rates
here is how your Swedish experiment went
data published by the official Swedish statistics office and other available figures in an attempt to answer that question. The answer is not encouraging: We found that the country recorded a record number of excess deaths in the first three weeks of April.
In the 21 days before April 19, 7,169 people died — 1,843 more people compared to the average number of deaths during the same weeks between 2015 and 2019. That’s the equivalent of a 34.5% increase.
Yeah well you can't just immediately destroy your economy every time there is a period of excess deaths. Leaders have to make hard decisions not easy decisions in time such as these. So far I am quite impressed with the Swedish response.
The Predicted Coronavirus Catastrophe Hasn’t Arrived In Sweden. What’s Next?
Heres an FT article that tries to disseminate that issue. Best read I have seen on the quandary.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/8a863b2b-1f6e-4c33-b4e5…
They did make a hard decision. They decided to look after their people, rather than relegate the elderly and immune compromised to die at the alter of your greed.
I have asked you this question before, but here goes again. Why is your need to make money, more important than other people’s lives?
As you have said on this site countless times, to people struggling to get ahead, you should have planned properly.
Saw an economist on croaking cassandra the other day saying that income drop now anticipated knocks average of (if I remember correctly) an average of about 1.5 years off peoples lives, ie 2%. Compare to average death rate from virus at ~0.5% . So which is the 'kindest' approach? More deaths through poverty or less deaths through letting virus work through population? Not so black and white is it?
Might interest you to know that the recent OECD report on the effects of Coronavirus on the economies of the g7 and select other economies predicts a (slightly) larger GDP% loss in Sweden than NZ.
https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/evaluating-the-initia…
They took our rain away, again. They forecast nearly 30 mls Sunday but as has been the pattern ,4 days before it's back to five ml and then light showers. This is a monster of a drought and we will have to go through another weather cycle of ten days which will bring us to mid-May which is getting so late for anyone.
Someone told me yesterday PKE has got expensive, as any feed that you can find is. I still have lambs ,on been waiting to kill for 3 weeks now.
I went for a drive yesterday and lots of cattle on the road grazing the long acre. Thing is, there is nothing anyone can do about the weather, unless they put those thousands of planes back in the air.
So like an earthquake we just have to go with it.
The other issue is Regional councils are grandparenting Nutrient leaching. ie the low input farmers are going to be locked in even lower inputs, so high leaching farmers can continue business as usual.
Councils are run by management and they are in the process of privatising the commons regards water takes and nutrients. We desperately need central Government to step up to the plate and deal with this issue. Regional councils do not represent the community they represent big business. It's a management takeover and there's going to be hell to pay.
For example some large farmers have feed pads in the catchment, the stream below them is polluted . E-coli limits for swimming are 260 part pr 100ml. This stream is as high as 570,000 parts pr 100ml. Yet the regional council has sat on it's hands while, bringing in consents for all farmers in the valley to limit nutrients. This includes extensive sheep farmers who are the lowest leches of them all. Large irrigators have watered while bores have gone dry all through the district, in the worst drought for a generation.
We are south of Wellington. Sell standing grass at $25 per bale or $0.025 kg. Beginning of this year the Ag contractor tried to screw it down to $20 per bale or $0.02 kg. Going retail rate is $60 pb or $0.06 kg. Rang around to see if it was an industry cartel squeeze. Seems so down here. Spoke to an outfit in Wanganui. They pay $80 per bale and sell for $100 pb. Seems to be an opportunity to barge the stuff up your way. PKE isn't exactly quickly replenished. Do you use PKE as a substitute or are you using it as a Foie Gras fattener
A lot of us have changed systems to be more resilient, we have to farm somewhere down the middle or we don't make money. I'm planning some big changes by growing cover crops for summer,then planting my winter crops amongst them which is going to be a challenge, requires me to manufacture some odd looking machinery. I'm trying to increase production with a low cost system
This year summer crops have struggled, all crops around here are a bit sick or completely shot. Mine are still about an inch high but going to be dead in a fortnight.
Costs have relentlessly climbed I don't know if that's common to all business in NZ or not. Consent to farm is going to lock me into a system and make it hard to change, I think it's going to be a disaster, partly because no one knows what they are doing.
We also are staring down the face of competition from synthetic foods, already %28 of US milk market has been lost to alternatives since 2008. The big changes are coming and fast regards synthetic proteins, not much we can do about it but sit back and watch ,hoping it's all going to work out somehow.
I don't think I've ever seen anyone try to defend grandparenting, I assume there is no argument for it other than we used the resources first so get stuffed. Best hope is that debt burdens will kill the ba&&$ds off.
I'd noted that our weekend rain was getting less and less so figured yours might disappear . Damn. Night temps well below 10 here now too.
Got a limited offer in txt for PKE at $325 ex store yesterday. That's near $0.40 perkgDM in the cow so not cheap.
Waikato Regional Council have dropped grandparenting in their revised plan and now (subject to final submissions) looking to have farm production systems consented by Permitted Activity, Controlled Activity, Restricted Discretionary Activity or Discretionary Activity. This adds far too much complexity that few understand as well as cost which few landowners can afford. The jobs spinning out of control all we are now doing is allowing another group to put their hands in our pockets - theres nothing but gorse in mine now!!
I suspect a lot of farmers will simply reduce stock numbers and fert use and aim to be a Permitted Activity which is wintering
My gripe is, they are trespassing on private property rights, which are actually quite strong in NZ. So regional councils tread where Gov't is too scared to go. Most of these problems wouldn't exist if the banks hadn't created this massive credit bubble and funded the intensification of farming in unsustainable ways.
Metvuw are still showing plenty of rain for sunday/monday. But a cold change with it. On the grandparenting, they found they could not do it in the Waikato, I am not sure if that was because iwi took them to court, but if it gets rubbished here, surely it wont succeed in HawkesBay.
Many went out and got their farms accredited for the old rules. Sales were done based on it. I blithely carried on figuring it was nonsense and it would be changed. It has. So these next rules they blathered on about having heavy cattle on hillsides. Not a problem in this pumice country. Sigh. One rule never fits all.
So they require a permit.
In Taupo the costs of a resource consent to farm are inevitably rising. I do not complain about the restrictions. But I was informed last week of yet another cost. We have to have that overseer software now. Another $200plus a year.
I am aware of farmers recently sourcing quality balage $75, lucerne $90/bale(large) though it varies depending on locality. There is a tipping point where grain becomes a better cost option per nutrient value than PKE. Perhaps more of an option for South Island farmers, than Nth Island? Also perhaps more valid for dairy as they are more used to using TMR (Total Mixed Rations) systems than non dairy.
The double ag push was believed by govt officials but I don't believe many farmers took that on board - bit like the 1980/90s increasing dairy production by 4% every year. In the community we lived, no one took any notice of it and continued BAU, as we knew that there were limits to what we could do to remain long term profitable. People in that community were farming, because that's what they wanted to do, and 20years later there had been less than a handful dairy farms change hands. A lot of sheep and beef went in to forestry, and in the mid 2000s we saw conversions start to happen. Most of those weren't again about govt directive, but empire building.
If you can't get by without reliance on ex rainforest (eesentially without using foreign acreage in draw-down mode) This applies to various food items pdk - for human consumption. PKE is a by-product of palm oil industry so, if there was no demand for palm oil there would be little to no, PKE.
The government announced yesterday they are going to put 35 job centers around NZ for the raising unemployment, and a brand new website. Guess the only missing piece of the puzzle is how are they going to help create jobs so these centers have something to offer the people? Industry has already said unless there is huge government help the ones left standing will also make redundancies in the coming months as commercial investment drys up.
Best read of the event thus far. Even if you're not of my outlook :) it's worth assimilating every word:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/04/21/covid-19-and-oil-at-1-is-there-a-…
It's worth reading twice, even.
And the good news is that New Zealand is still spotlighted as a beat the virus success story! :)
Let hope we can keep this up and fully wipe out the corona virus from our shores.
BBC Coronavirus: How New Zealand got its coffees and fries back. "Coffee and fast food seemed to be the first thing on the mind of New Zealanders as the country emerged from almost five weeks of strict lockdown." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52450978
I see Queenstown is out with its begging bowl again and sees hope...
Queenstown Lakes District Council has already applied for $68 million of government funding...The other hope is the domestic visitor market...they're likely to get such good deals from currently empty hotels.
As if EVERY another tourist town ( sorry, City!) and operator on the planet isn't going to be offering their products at 'good deal' prices at the same time, and given the inherent price premium that going to QT is always going to incur (it's in the middle of nowhere! the cost of getting anything there is, well, expensive) NZ locals are going to be spoiled for choice; and Queenstown could be the last place they decide to spend their holiday dollar. It will after all, always be there, and there might be better places to go to now before the price incentives fade.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/29/1148537/crisis-chills-queenstowns…
80% cut in tariff looks about the going rate down there at the moment. It's going to get 'better' than that!
(NB: I had a place down there the last time a crisis struck, Goldfield Heights, and rent received went from $650 per week to $0 for months until I found a tenant at, tada! $50 per week)
There have already been some properties listed for sale in the past 2 weeks during the lockdown period in Queenstown on Trademe.
1) Listed 21 April - https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auctio… (bought Jan 2018 for 850,000)
2) Listed 20 April - https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auctio… (bought Aug 2016 for 710,000)
Looks like some owners trying to get ahead of a possible stampede ...
The key question is
1) how many desperate sellers will there be?
2) at what price do buyers become active?
Any property owner who bought a property in Queenstown
1) for the purpose of letting out on Airbnb, and
2) paid a price that depended on the revenues of Airbnb
3) used high levels of debt to finance the purchase
are likely to go from positive cashflow to negative cashflow.
Even if they manage to rent the property out in the long term rental market, the rental will still be unable to coverage the debt service payments and the property owner will still be in negative cashflow. The property owner will unlikely have sufficient cash on hand to continue to make up the cashflow shortfall for a long period of time (or the owner may be unwilling to cover the cashflow shortfall). If the property owner believes that the Airbnb market will not recover then property owners may look to sell, rather than take the mortgage payment deferment plan (as the cashflow shortfall will add to the mortgage balance) and wait for recovery of the Airbnb market.
This looks like an Airbnb property looking for renters in the long term rental market. Listed during the lockdown period on 15 April.
Asking $950 / per week for 3BDRM.
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/rent/listing/259758086…
In other words...
We made QT into a tourist and lifestyle destination that was unaffordable for most New Zealanders, now we are (not so) humbly asking that these same New Zealanders bail us out to ensure that we can keep operating on the same model.
The finances of the local government are the responsibility of the constituents. Go hat in hand to those who own the most expensive property in the most exclusive region of NZ before you go asking everyone else.
Not quite. During the good times those same tourists paid for a lot of the entire countries living costs via tax take. We do have a shared responsibility here to help them through.
Maybe if there had been a capital gains tax for property I would also have pity on those about to lose their properties. But since those same people likely voted to not have one, they can eat their property losses.
During the good times those same tourists paid for a lot of the entire countries living costs via tax take.
No they didn't. The majority of the GST and duty take is always from the highly productive regions of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury. The tax take from Otago is pathetic in comparison.
That does exclude income tax, however. But tourism is low value add activity, so in all likelihood the region is likely a net welfare recipient.
There were a lot of reports that the CCP insisted that factories used electricity (left lights and machinery on) while closed and not actually in use to produce anything. Presumably to game the perception of their slow down. In which case, the electricity readings might not suggest anything positive for the economy at all.
I wouldn't trust any of the so called Official Statistics from the Government. They are consistently fudged to obtain the required numbers that Beijing requires. Factory output, pollution levels, spending on various projects. Beijing even has Auditors of Auditors to try and stamp out the skimming of budgets by corrupt officials. It's all an illusion.
David.... I think it would be great if you interviewed Martin North @ Digital Financial Analytics in Australia. He has lots of rolling monthly data on Aussie confidence, Debt, savings etc. Would be great to have a comparison and maybe move to collect similar data here. Coronavirus may mean our two nations work much closer together for the next 2-3 years while CV runs its course.
Interesting article from Twitter on Australia. Maybe he’ll do a similar article on NZ soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-28/australia-econom…
I wish David would stop drinking the Elite Democrat "Anti-Trump Whatever the Cost" Propaganda coming from American Pravda Today (Washington Post edition, New York Times edition, Google edition, Bloomberg edition).
What's good for New Zealand is a growing US trade deficit as it pumps USD (ie, real money) into the world economy. A shrinking US trade deficit destroys world trade.
The American merchandise trade deficit rose to -US$59.7 bln in March from February as exports slumped more than imports. That was the same level as for March 2019 indicating zero 'progress' for the year.
The Donald is a strange chap. All the more reason to ask why the US people dislike the Democrats with such intensity. Do they know something you don't? Best not to take sides and focus instead on what is in New Zealand's interests, not the interests of the corrupt US Democrat elite.
Yeah tell that to the 1,002,000 infected and some 56,700 dead Americans from the coronvirus, most of them won't have any form of Health Insurance, may they rest in peace knowing they have a partially built wall. Trump is political toast and he knows it, some how the Covid-19 virus isn't going to magically disappear from now until the next US election which is only a few months away.
Indeed. If you look at Biden on YouTube you will realise he is in the onset of some mental impairment. His most important decision will be who he selects as a running mate. The good news is that it will be a woman. The old Male stale has done its course.
Question is where are all the better candidates? Aren't there any Kennedys still alive.
"Aren't there any Kennedys still alive"
Not for long at this rate. Very curious.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52195939
Type of genitalia isn't a remotely sensible criteria for selecting for political leadership. Ditch the identity politics idiocy - what people look like is just about the dumbest way imaginable for assessing someones ability to do a job - unless it is being an actor or tele-prompter reader
You do realise the entire world economy has completely fallen apart in the last few months, and it had absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump right? You're like a dog with a bone, everything has to be Trumps fault. And the idea that it was the reason Sanders dropped out is preposterous as well.
Do you live in the US? Or is this secondhand "experience", ie someone elses's propaganda? Why do you resonate so intensely with the narrative that is being promoted? Are the figures reliable? Why is it Trump's fault that America is in decline? He may very well be incompetent, but isn't that a requirement for the job?
Lots of smoke and mirrors out there.
If you haven't noticed Roger, Trump is responsible for a lot of the economic downturn around the world which does impact us here in NZ! Where have you been? Trade wars have you forgotten so quickly, not to mention the rest of his bumbling about.
Here let me refresh your memory: (Think article) If a recession is coming, everything Trump has done on the economy will make it worse.
"Economic downturns require policy flexibility, political cooperation and listening to expert advice. So we're in deep trouble." https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/if-recession-coming-everything-tr…
The CCP needs to be stopped. The trade war is needed. If it means we are a bit poorer to stop a tyrannical regime to become more powerful then that's good with me. Anybody who deals with the CCP for a quick buck is selling out their descendants to a life of untold misery. Lots of people will die if Chinas power is not substantially cut. Luckily we can still achieve this goal economically at this point if the world collectively holds strong and stops dealing with China. If, however, a few greedy little treacherous leeches break ranks and resume trade, we are done.
Yeah you'll find those treacherous leeches here are called Real Estate Agents who are happy to sell NZ to the highest bidder no matter who or where they are, so they can make a quick buck. And remember it's National that wants to remove the Foreign Buyers Ban and open up our boards asap, with not much consideration for the coronvirus.
Yes and Trump is already falling support in the polls, if the coronvirus continues at the rate it's infecting he'll be hoping for a win by default, if they have to put off the election. Perhaps that's his plan.
Forbes article: Polls Show Trump Losing Ground To Biden. "Polls continue to show a downward slide for President Trump, with former vice president Joe Biden growing his support nationally and in key states as the president’s approval rating seems to be cratering." https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/04/28/polls-show-trump…
My point was that we endanger our objectivity if we allow ourselves to take sides.
My summary of US politics is that Trump was elected because Obama was incompetent, who was elected because Bush was incompetent, who was..... So why would Trump be any different? I have just started to question why I used to drink the propaganda so readily. Smoke and mirrors everywhere, nothing new in that.
The US is not like New Zealand. The tolerance for institutional dishonesty is far higher. Presumably this is because of the importance of the military, where a certain of misinformation is needed from time to time. I've been watching a long and depressing doco about the Vietnam War on Netflix, I think they have never recovered from the lies that were told at that time. Lies to start the war, lies they were winning, lies every day, year after year after year. Just like the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War and the Syria War. Lie upon lie for the benefit of a few. Lies by the Democrats and lies by the Republicans. A civilised country needs to have institutions the people can trust.
Sadly the whole world is effected by America now more then ever. Perhaps if the US had better leadership and at least tried to concentrate on even stopping the spread of the coronavirus the Western world would recover more quickly economically. Instead the US is just spinning out of control with a buffoon at the helm. See for yourself, go take a look at the "How confirmed cases of coronavirus have spread". BBC article: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Institutionalised incompetence, yes, but wouldn't a different president have failed just as abjectly? Their healthcare system is highly corrupt and disfunctional. Their media are highly biassed. YouTube are censoring videos by doctors on the front line. The BBC is a highly biassed source pretending to be objective. Sit on the fence, don't get drawn in. You don't need to.
Looking forward to seeing how Homes.co.nz sets it April property value estimates in a couple days. No doubt it will put all valuations higher yet again because it desperately needs to keep its primary source of revenue, the real estate agencies happy. If they don't accept the new reality and don't adjust prices down considerably then this website will become just another irrelevance to be avoided.
Is the neighbour seeking a war to draw attention away from it's economic woes?
The warship was the USS Barry, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer that has been stirring up trouble in the region for days. On Friday, the Barry transited the Taiwan Strait, which Beijing regards as internal waters since it doesn’t recognize the autonomy of Taiwan. The warship then returned to the South China Sea, where it rejoined a group of warships that included the Ticonderoga-class guided missile-cruiser USS Bunker Hill, the Australian Anzac-class frigate HMAS Parramatta and, most importantly, the amphibious assault ship USS America, an aircraft carrier capable of dispatching thousands of US Marines. Link
CCP propaganda.
"China has capitalized on the world’s distraction to claim sovereignty over disputed islands in the South China Sea, intimidate Taiwan, and assert more authority over Hong Kong in an attempt to quash the pro-democracy movement there."
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/28/21234598/coronavirus-china-xi-jinping-for…
True ANZAC spirit. Australia is still pro democracy at least:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8259129/US-praises-Australian-…
The Journal argues that with Chinese nationalism rising under Xi Jinping, “It’s more important than ever for the U.S. to signal that it considers the independence of Pacific states a vital interest and isn’t retreating.”
The independence and borders of these states is undeniably vital to them. But how is that vital to us, 8,000 miles away, on the other side of the Pacific? This is power politics, pure and simple. Link
China is getting bolder as its getting richer. It is bullying the world. They will eventually start a major war that's for sure. We either pre-emptively attack them now or cut trade with them completely. I prefer to cut trade. Let their economy shrivel. Then there is a good chance that the CCP will be internally overthrown as its oppressed people are already suffering. We either roll over and accept the jackboot or stand up to them. The threat is not going away with the status quo.
China is wobbley as hell. Hated by world, collapsing economy, a huge demographic implosion occurring with half as many 5 years olds as 50 year olds, shrinking labour force, big male/female imbalance in younger demographic, an embattled emperor desperate to retain power and trying to distract however he can. Don't be too quick to predict what will happen there in next few years.
Chinagate Is The New Russiagate... And Is Far More Dangerous
Wall Street and the national security state (empire) ransacked and hollowed out this country. It wasn’t your neighbor, it wasn’t immigrants and it wasn’t an external enemy.
Know who did this and never forget it.
This is my plan for employment. NZ biggest imports are cars. Petrol cars that is. Now, there are already so much old cars here. Set up an electronic car manufacturing plant. Source the needed material (as much as possible) from recycling old cars (that must create a massive downstream economic activities. you can even use up all the excess electricity in South Island, without the need to upgrade the infrastructure). These cars will not be cheaper than overseas produced ones, but 1) they will reduce our already huge trade deficit 2) create tonnes of jobs 3) enable NZ to become an expert in battery and electric motor manufacturing 4) reduce our dependence on oil (another massive contributor to our trade deficit and a massive energy reliance)
Retro fit an electric engine into used car is a thing in France, cost approx us$7,000.
If we all had toyotas, no problem, because they are good for 500,000 kms anyway.
What I would do, options:
Crate motor (LS) into an old hiluxs,
Bring commodore production line from Adelaide to Invercargill.
License manufacture of 1985 Toyota land cruiser and Toyota corona vehicles.
For fun license manufacture of 1975 Mazda RX3.
There is no was in hell we can design , build and assemble cars here , we tried before and it failed for very good reason
We dont have skilled workers willing to work in car plants for 12 hours a day at $3 per hour as we see in Asia
Nor do we have steel mills and foundries
Well, this does not make scenes in normal times. But with unemployment projected at 20%, you will need something to do. It will be better than paying billions of dollars to unemployed. And this is not intended to make NZ a car export superpower, just to replace part of our fleet for all the money the government need to spend anyway.
This scheme will help developing serious capacity for recycling cars. Hopefully some innovation as well as nice framework to make things more environmentally friendly. The ability to recycle things on an industrial, systematic and efficient way will come very handy skill.
To me the most important factors in viability of this idea is that: 1) do we already have the know how of recycling cars on small scale 2) would the resulted material be good enough for a new car.
With car manufacturing struggling in future too, it must not be impossible to find a partner that smooth the technical aspects of it for a reasonable profit.
In normal times this idea makes no sense but it makes sense (at least to me) now for these reasons:
1) unemployed masses needing a job who will get government "job seeker" for nothing for the foreseeable future.
2) weakening NZD prospects make it even more attractive to reduce your imports (cars and oil being on top)
3) excess electric energy in SI that can be used locally.
Well.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%22Mad%22_Mike_Whiddett
Some very good spanner guys in the south too!
Europeans have their cars rebuilt here by a couple of local wizards.
Then we were building the wrong cars out of the wrong stuff.
So many people have so much trouble moving so little distance cognitively.
I happen to ride a recumbent trike; 3 disc brakes, twin-wishbone independent from suspension, fully shocked, 30 speeds and electric-able. Take your two-ton behemoths off the road (why we cart 1-2 ton to shift a human body beats me) and it'd be a winner.
nsw premier speaking now and changing the home confinement rules to allow you to visit other bubbles from Friday. they still need to stay home and work from home, 11 new cases and 4 deaths over night
1 new case in a four year old that attends a childcare centre
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covidsafe-down…
Australian rules explained
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/28/can-i-visit-my-f…
We shall go on to the end: we shall hide in the Auckland apartments, we shall hide in the Paeroa houses, we shall never get immunity! And if, which for a moment I don't believe, all the evidence points to Covid19 being as dangerous as the flu; we shall ignore it.
We shall destroy tourism, we shall destroy the overseas education sector, we shall destroy women - beaten up by their partners. We shall surrender our rights. We will never recover!
For what it's worth: The New York Times, April 28, 2020): Coronavirus: Can the Trump Campaign Rewrite the Story of the Trump Presidency? Brad Parscale (Trump's campaign manager) sees a path to victory through discounted Facebook ads and keeping Trump on TV. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/magazine/trump-campaign-manager-coro…
The New York Times - all the news that is fit to print.....
Heres the thing.
Meet Davy Alba, she covers tech and disinformation. This fearless reporter, modern day gumshoe found some news she didn't like. So she removed it.
Davey Alba
@daveyalba
@nytimes
reporter covering tech and disinformation / http://daveyalba.com / ask me for my secure email address or Signal number / I take tips in Tagalog Flag of Philippines
New Yorknytimes.com/by/davey-albaJoined April 2008
1,657 Following
16.1K Followers
See this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/daveyalba/status/1253817423406542849
I contacted YouTube about this video, which is being shared on tons of replies on Twitter & on Facebook, by people asserting that it backs up Trump's idea throwing it out there that UV rays kill coronavirus.
YouTube just said it removed it for violating its community guidelines.
And
https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/26/pharmaceutical-firm-ay…
For example, the pharmaceutical firm Aytu BioScience announced on April 20, four days before the Trump remarks, that it has signed an exclusive licensing deal with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles. The center has developed and is testing a UV-A “Healight” designed to be inserted via a catheter inside the trachea to kill pathogens, including the coronavirus.
https://www.cedars-sinai.org/
It's the place to go on the west coast!
Gingerninja and others
I read the other day of a French Nobel laureate who said the structure of covid-19, is unusual, it had a quasi-HIV aspect to it, and it's structure was suggestive of a potential lab origin.
With much deeper medical.knowledge than I, I would be interested in your thought on this.
Obviously if it has a lab origin, China's culpability is that much greater.
Luc Montagnier was quite a controversial figure before this recent statement and he has made prior, quite extreme claims that no one else has been able to verify. So far most labs that have published on SARS-Cov-2 virus have suggested a lab origin is unlikely and been able to track back to earlier mutations. That being said, it's not impossible for someone in a lab in China to have been working on SARS and an accident occurred. Such labs usually have vigorous protocols, so it would be a very rare unusual occurrence but there is always human error. What isn't rare is for viruses from zoonotic reservoirs jumping to infect humanity. So I would err on the Occam's for now, until further evidence is forthcoming. I think it is very important to explore the origins of the virus regardless though. The more we understand the better.
If there is something dodgy going on though, it would be the CCP, not the Chinese people to blame.
A few different people have been calling for the government to forgo businesses paying get to help them. Does anyone know how this would work? As a business I only hand over the residual of what I've been paid in gst minus what I've paid out. All business associated gst is neutral. Just seems a odd idea.
All the talk regarding China as a massive enemy. As if America, Britain, Europe, in short, the West, has been so benevolent as global leaders, politely asking for the resources of Africa, the middle east, Asia, South America. Giving fair return for value in return, building roads for trade, building infrastructure so healthcare, education and finance have a chance to grow. Yeah, I think the west have made lots and lots of global friends, a really nice global community (sarcasm). Trouble is, the west just ain't that big, total population of west? Under 2 billion? And the largest user of resources? The west.
Whether you like it or not, this is indisputable. "Don't worry",I hear you say, we've got bigger guns than everyone else. The American military might, experts at never winning a war, because prolonging it is far more profitable. The UK, recently launched 2 aircraft carriers, they dont have the budget, or the hardware, to man and arm the first one, and they haven't even begun to think of what to do with second.
The USA, f35, 1 billion a pop. Doesn't even fly well. A corrupted military machine built around profits will invariably be great for long drawn out profitable campaigns, yet will be found unfit for purpose should the need arise.
Clearly many people in the west are unaware of recent military developments in the east. Things that fly, things that go on land, and lots of things that go on, and below water, not to mention communications.
I'm with the fence sitting on this one, it's not like we get any say, yet it doesn't hurt to have a better understanding of the players involved. Ie, military strategist, taking bets now, in one corner, we have Trump and Johnson, in the other, Putin and Xi.
Suddenly I'm a global citizen, don't want to place a bet, just a peaceful world for our families to grow up in. Apologies, bit long today, but honestly?
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