Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news labour markets keep on contracting, especially in the US.
3.8 mln more Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, suggesting that layoffs were spreading to industries that were not initially directly impacted by business closures and disruptions related to the coronavirus. Last week's tally was more than was expected (3.5 mln) and brings the total who have sought jobless benefits to more than 30 mln. Officially, the insured unemployment rate is 12.4%, but 30 mln of a workforce of 156 mln is 19% extra and they started with more than 4% unemployed, so the total has to be at least 24% now.
It will be no surprise then to learn that in March, personal spending fell sharply, down -7.5% but before the pandemic grip really took hold. The April data will undoubtedly be much more ugly, but all the same, a -7.5% drop is one of the largest month-on-month falls ever. The decreases are just massive, down -US$830 bln in spending for services and down -US$105 bln in spending for goods. Expect the April drop to be very much larger and exceed -US$1 tln. These are world-scale shocks that will reverberate globally.
The PMI for April in the heartland factory region of Chicago has come in lower than expected and of course very much lower than for March. But at least this one hasn't plunged below the GFC levels quite yet.
The US Fed expanded its Main Street lending program to be sure it captured larger firms that were still not big enough to tap public capital markets. And more massive US fiscal stimulus is on the drawing-board.
It is looking increasingly like China isn't going to pull the world up in the absence of the US. After broadly stabilising in March, operating conditions across China's manufacturing sector weakened slightly in April although they aren't contracting. Very weak international orders are holding back any expansion. In fact, export orders plunged after the brief March bounce.
Reinforcing that, a new American Chamber of Commerce poll shows only 42% of China-based US businesses have returned to normal operations as of mid-April, but that is up from 22% a month earlier. But domestic activity is returning to important parts of China.
Not so in Singapore however, their business confidence index fell from -12 in March to -56 in April.
The ECB has decided to effectively pay banks to lend money after their economy shrank the most in decades. But the worst is yet to come, warned Christine Lagarde.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,249,000 and up +82,000 from this time yesterday which is an unchanged rising rate.
Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +27,000 since this time yesterday to 1,054,300. This is the same rate of increase. US deaths are now almost 62,000. Global deaths are about to exceed 231,000. The death rate in the UK is now almost 16% and they seem to have one of the worst-managed pandemic responses of any developed country.
In Australia, there are now 6753 cases (+7), 91 deaths (+2) and a stable recovery rate of just under 85%. 89 people are in hospital there (-4) with 34 in ICU (-4).
There are 1476 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with +2 new cases yesterday, the same increase as the day before. Nineteen people have died, unchanged, almost all geriatric patients. There are seven people in hospital with the disease (+1), but none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 84% and rising.
In equity markets, the S&P500 is down -1.3% in afternoon trading today. That comes after a very sharp reversal in Europe with most markets down -2.5% overnight. Disappointment that there wasn't more ECB largesse is behind the retreat. Yesterday, all Asian markets were up firmly, as was the ASX200 but the NZX50 fell again.
The UST 10yr yield is firm at just under 0.63%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally steeper at +43 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +20 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also marginally steeper at just under +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.88% and down -5 bps since this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is marginally firmer at 2.52%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield has weakened sharply again, down -6 bps to 0.73% continuing the recent selloff.
Gold is down sharply today, down another -US$19 to US$1,686/oz.
Oil prices are higher again today. In the US, they are currently at just under US$17/bbl, a +US$2 gain but still well below the cost of production for most drillers. International oil prices are up a similar amount to just on US$25/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has firmed again overnight against the greenback and is now at 61.4 USc. On the cross rates we are back up to 94.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still firm at 56.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 67.1.
The 'halving hype' rise we got yesterday in the price of bitcoin is being unwound now with a -5.1% fall to US$8,444. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
184 Comments
“3.8 mln more Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week” Fabulous!
“America is doomed, not because its citizenry is incapable of adaptation, but because its ruling, warring elites are incapable of surrendering any of their wealth, power or control, or allowing anything to threaten their precious cartels and monopolies, starting of course with the key controlling monopoly, the Federal Reserve.” (CH Smith)
Swap the country, America, for any other and how is that country any different? Be that The UK, Europe, China, Australia or even New Zealand and substitute the Federal Reserve with the BoE, ECB, PBoC, RBA and RBNZ and perhaps we can see that we are all in the same leaky waka.
There is as much merit in ‘saving the markets at all cost’ today as there was back in 2008; little. But if we should have learned anything by now, it’s that – it doesn’t work.
I think you're right. The elites continue to somehow think they are more important and should be invulnerable to the fallout of COVID. Even on this site the call of the capitalists can still be heard echoing through the comment streams. If it weren't so sad, it'd be funny.
There's still hope that Trump will end up getting the coronavirus (Though will he be as lucky as Boris), apparently he's ready to hit the road again since he can wait no longer to have Trump rabid supporters once again cheering at big rallies.
Quoting article below: "Note that Fox News gives Biden an 8-point lead in Michigan. This is despite (or because) of soaring Michigan unemployment, perhaps as high as 30%".
Article FX Street: Trump is ready to hit the road, Covid-19 or not. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/trumps-need-for-adulation-outweighs-h…
Yes a thought I had from a couple of weeks ago; Doctor (in America)" I'm sorry to inform you Mr .... but your test has come back and it says you have Corona Virus. You'll need to go into quarantine of course, but before that would you like to meet the President? We'd like you to at least shake his hand. Giving him a hug would be better."
LOL, Yes and some how I can't see Trump being able to organize social distancing at his rallies either, from now until the election. It's already looking extremely unfavorable for him in the current polls and I very much doubt that he's have the coronavirus fully under control by then.
US poll map: https://editorial.fxstreet.com/miscelaneous/2-637238567555217072.png
If his poll numbers don't look good, I expect Trunip to delay the election and then attempt to remain in power past January (where I think Nancy Pelosi would take over if things were followed as they should). He would be "forced" to maintain power to both combat the virus (painting himself as a wartime president) and so that "crazy Pelosi" isn't handed the reins of power, which his base would be apoplectic at. Sure he might have to change the constitution so he remains in power (forever), but he would do it with a "heavy heart"...
I'm sure Trump will try to delay their next election but it won't be Pelosi replacing him since her term is up at the end of December. The senior-most official eligible for the presidency in such a doomsday scenario would be 86-year-old Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the president pro team of the Senate. That's assuming Republicans still control the Senate after a third of its 100 seats are vacated because of their own term expirations.
BBC Coronavirus: Could Donald Trump delay the presidential election? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52326166
I agree. But having said that, balance is required and even markets need a degree of regulation. A part of this issue is any swing back to the centre (from the right) is decried as rampant socialism, as opposed just what is necessary to preserve at least some of what was built up to ensure the economy and markets can still function to a degree. But as you identify it, crony capitalism has seen the banks being supported at the expense of other business's, to the point that the Government has had to step in directly. But that action by the banks, including the RBNZ, is also looking like acting to prop up the property market artificially, which unbelievably goes against 'free market' theory and proves the manipulation.
There is a huge opportunity for the Government to address these imbalances, and i see indications they are trying, but the external forces are powerful and won't loose their grip easily.
Overall I agree but from a different perspective. Markets definitely need a degree of regulation no argument there.
"A swing back to the centre (from the right)" to you is a further swing to the left as I see it (centralised panning and interventions etc.).
"But as you identify it, crony capitalism has seen the banks being supported at the expense of other business's, to the point that the Government has had to step in directly." I see government completely complicit in this as the RBNZ's mandate is set in conjunction with the Government. Both the RBNZ and the Gov are responsible for the support of banks.
The economic dilemma we find ourselves in now is due to central banks and governments alike and that's why encouragement for large entities to "step in" worries me. Solid financial regulation and decentralisation of power (giving individuals more power) are the only ways I see this addressing these imbalances and moving forward in a productive direction.
With the exception of decentralisation, I generally agree. Indeed it seems we are debating to the same end but from different directions. As to decentralisation; I agree from the point of Politicians fiddling, but there is a history of being too decentralised, which is just as bad. and this is to Believer's point below - we will likely never find the point of perfect balance, but we must always strive for it. My biggest problem is that the authorities have a tendency to use sticking plasters rather than looking for substantial fixes.
I agree with Murray that better regulation is needed. But to be honest, better regulation (and regulator) is always needed. The problem is what is good regulation and who would be a good regulator? self-regulation is unlikely to work, but has government regulation fared much better?
So, it is pointless to say regulation is needed unless you can be specific about it. How do you plan to regulate "greed"? are you going to ban private ownership (you cannot be greedy when you are not allowed to own anything after all)? are you going to tax the "greedy" more? Are you going to ration things and forbid people to own more than a certain number of things?
I honestly cannot think about any other "regulatory" approaches to reign in "greed". The ones I mentioned had been tried to disastrous results
I largely agree Believer that the core issue is finding that perfect sweet spot of balance.
"Greed" is not about how many 'things' someone owns but how he came to own them. For example I do not think it is right that an employer for example pays staff a minimum wage, below the living wage, while walking away with a huge profit at the end of the year. I do not think it is right that a CEO gets paid 20 - 100 times the median wage of their employees. I do not think it is right that fuel suppliers raise the price of pump gas the same day that crude goes up $5, but doesn't drop that price until 2 weeks, a month or never that it drops $10. I don't think it is right that building materials manufactured in Australia cost three times in NZ than what they do in Aussie. That is the greed that needs to be regulated.
One last thing about employers. Some years ago I heard an employer who had been challenged on how much he paid his staff respond that he was entitled to as he took all the risk. While it is true that he has taken a risk to buy and operate the business and all that goes with it, but he has highly marketable skills and abilities and if the worst happens given the slimmest of opportunities these people often recover very well, and often better having learnt from the experience. Their employees however have the same if not more risk as they have bet on their employer, often have few if any skills, particularly at the low end, that are marketable into well paying jobs, and particularly in the last 30 -40 years have been unable to develop the reserves to provide a cushion for catastrophic events.
Further to Greed - socialism breeds it too. This article on Stuff here identifies employers who are being bullied by staff who don't want to return to work and are demanding their wage subsidy, and indeed have cost an employer one business, with another under threat. This is why balance is needed. We have had too much socialism as well as too much capitalism for too long. Under these circumstances I believe the employer should be able to issue a warning and ultimately terminate those staff, and hire others who actually want to work.
Looks like the USA vs China is going to go into another orbit. The USA may have to start paying its own people to make its own things which in his own contorted way Trump expounds. This may give Trump a greater platform for more self dependency with the message that the USA can no longer afford to put its trust in the untrustworthy.
Everyone now realize that 'Saving the markets at all cost' is and has been the mantra of all government and reserve banks and this is exploited by all be it industrialist, business, bank........ as are aware that come what may government will bail them out and is not to save economy as such but to save their economy/votes, so politicans throw money/experiment at cost of hard working tax payers money.
Government shkuld help but blanket cover offered is exploited by many and also not good for economy in long run.
Problem is, any hint that people today should receive similar opportunities (jobs, wages, affordability of housing, education, healthcare etc.) available to previous generations in the USA is met with vociferous shrieks of "COMMUNISM!!" and "SOCIALISM!!", and the talkback and cable industries seem to do a great job of engendering outrage and talking people into voting for policies that don't actually deliver them these things. And it's worth recognising that people voted for Trump because both sides were ceasing to represent them...unfortunately that didn't get what they may have thought they were voting for.
Makes one wonder how long some countries (their leaders and friends) will be able to keep exploiting their populaces before we see violent uprising. Like the yellowjackets but on a wider scale. Will the constant focus on funneling up under the guise of trickle down end up blowing back?
It actually arises from a fundamental complacency that exists in middle America. If my house and back yard is good, then everything is good. They have no great desire to look beyond that. Our old neighbours would interpret that socialism means taking money off them to give to someone else. That basic tenet is very open to manipulation en masse, and almost impossible to overcome. Americans though will give individually generously to charities. We had contact from many friends asking how they could contribute to the Canterbury EQ relief fund for example. That is the measure of it because in those cases they can select and apportion accordingly.
Don't dispair. Us commenters are just a tiny corner of this site's readership. Yesterday 38,000 separate readers read 105,000 pages of content. But only 169 of those readers made a comment, and that relative handful made 599 comments, more than 3 each. The comment action has almost no relationship to our readership's interests. Commenters reprersent just a 0.4% of our readers. Of course it will attract some loopy conspiracy contributions. But maybe in no higher proportion to the loopy folks in the wider community.
The commenters are not speaking for our readers.
Yes! Cheap flights to save Qantas and accommodation on the Gold Coast; In Melbourne and Sydney; skiing at Falls Creeks & Mount Buller and tourist jaunts in Kakadu on the horizon. Pity about the domestic tourism hopes that New Zealand resorts hoped for.
Every tourist hot-spot on the planet is going to compete for what disposable dollars are left, and New Zealand will have to slash its own throat if it wants to attract Aussies over here.
Cheap flights are now a dimming memory, they will not return in the foreseeable future. Social distancing and the need to disinfect every plane after every flight will see to that.
Shrinking incomes will be another nail in tourism coffin.
The harsh reality is that tourism as we knew it, is dead.
Supposing that virus can actually be suppressed without severe restrictions. USS Kidd was at sea for 4 weeks before they noticed infection (and now 100's are) - asymptomatic transmission hid it for most of that time. How can we possibly hope to eradicate something so sneaky?
Thats a bit of an outlier though, and not at all reflective of society at large. Its a closed system that excludes people that are likely to show symptoms, how many old, obese, or otherwise health compromised people make it into active military duty on a US warship? Not many, diabetes disqualifies you from joining the US military, basic training and obesity aren't exactly compatible, so you've got a crew that is mostly young healthy and fit men, with good healthcare access.
I'm not dismissing it entirely, but compare that to something like a cruise ship, where the average passenger is the polar opposite to the average navy man, and then for an idea of how its going to behave in society at large draw the line somewhere down the middle, it will generally show up far sooner, and if you really jump on contact tracing and testing, you can probably hunt it down and keep it under control.
Eradiciation is going to be very challenging once the borders are porous again, there will be constant reimportation of cases until the world at large has beaten it, which is god knows how far out in the future. Sorta suggests international sporting fixtures might be a bad idea for quite a while.
Speaking with my brother last night, a bit of talk on Queenstown. My nephew was managing a $60m project there and has had to lay of his 250 workers before closing up for himself as well. He is lucky, his prior Auckland based firm will take him back. Although he plans to stay down for a while, perhaps picking fruit.
Already one half finished house for sale in Queenstown. There will be dozens in the near future. Lots of these opportunities will be available. From small to huge. Hendo's Hole eventually got finished after a few hiccups. Once the airlines lock in a few litres of fuel at current prices they will be away laughing. A surprisingly large number of Aussies and Kiwis will be feeling like, and able to take a break after the lockdown. If we only holiday with each other, and trade with each other, both countries will get by. Especially with UK coming back on stream with the Colonies! Just like the old days. Do they still make Wolseleys?
Excellent debate on the pandemic response, featuring Mike Hosking and...Mike Hosking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP2S-IzLoWo&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwA…
Yep. Nearly as despicable as Bill English deferring any review of the retirement age to at least 2040.
Super is untouchable in New Zealand. Don't ever be shocked at what a Prime Minister from any side of the house will do to keep the people who actually vote happy.
I'm curious as to what is meant by 'means tested' super. Will my young wifes income be taken into account - it certainly reduces the amount of Super I receive. And having a mortgage free home - will that make any difference or should I put it into my wife's name? Should we pretend to part? Seems to me the devil is in the detail and lawyers and accountants will love the idea. So why not just change the age of entitlement to match most other developed countries - from 65 to about 68. That will probably be better for Govt finances than anoter means test.
While accepting that the Aussie COVID rate is low for the population, I have concerns that the increasing pressure on the Government to open that border will be done prematurely. I disagree with Winnie's call that any form of quarantine will not be acceptable either way and for this to occur, there must be some other robust method of preventing COVID entry into the country again.
Looks like the UK has past the peak of the coronavirus. BBC Coronavirus: Boris Johnson says UK is past the peak of outbreak. "PM Boris Johnson said he will set out a "comprehensive plan" next week on how to restart the economy, reopen schools and help people travel to work following the coronavirus lockdown.
He said the UK was "past the peak" of the virus outbreak, but stressed the country must not "risk a second spike".
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52493500
I will take a guess too. I think it will be a little longer than a week. Some will act early but there still be many will struggle on eating up reserves for a while too.
Small businesses with employees that are friends wont act that quickly. Councils struggling to come to grips with the end of the boom time. Businesses that have very specialized staff that ordinarily are hard to replace/large training times. The pain will set in slower for them.
By August we will be in the thick of it and close to seeing what the new normal is for a few years.
You are correct, it will be more than a week but will have to wait at least a week.
With lockdown even data will be freeze or manipulated / potray otherwise. Only when it is real bad and obvious will be hard to create a smoke and hide and that will be only after the lockdown.
Got email from RE Agent with past sell data and trying to convince, how strong the market is despite everything falling all around.
Wait and Watch.
The U.S. workforce size seemed a bit small to me.. according to the Fed, the working age (15-64) in the US is 206m people. And the US population is >320m. So a quarter of the working age population aren't in the workforce, and if 24% of the 156m workforce aren't working, then every worker is supporting themselves and 1.7 people.
Couples with children where one is staying at home? That's what I would have thought would make the biggest number... also probably a lot of people in the illegal economy who are working either in illicit activities (e.g. prostitution/drugs) who aren't registered as unemployed but do get paid (cash jobs also fall into this?), therefore fall outside of the reporting.
its just an overall average, so it covers all sorts of situations. Retired, disabled, young children etc
I was going to try to compare the ratio for NZ, but our stats seem to be slightly different basis. Best I can come up with was last qtr of 2019 we has 2.65m workers, and a total population of ~5m. So it was roughly one worker supporting themselves and 0.89 others, its obviously gone downhill from there.
Lebanon going to IMF after default
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/defaulted-lebanon-ap…
Throughout the horrific Civil War of several decades ago, Lebanon still made payment on all its debt obligations. All of them.
Only in the last few months have they defaulted.
What does that tell us about the sad state of affairs of Global Economics?
That even those that survived warfare won't survive this/the coming Global Depression, and neither will many others.
Two links on Job Guarantee proposals to combat unemployment.
NZ
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/415421/cat-maclennan-post-covi…
Bill Mitchell - costings on Job Guarantee over Job Seeker and Job Keeper in Australian
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=44821
Good idea but the compliance costs in construction and many other industries enforced by worksafe and a number of other government organisations won't just allow you to enter people in and out of those industries on a weekly or monthly basis. There is a lot of training that needs to go on in the background, so it would have to be a longer term commitment from the government.
A jg job is supposed to focus on work the private sector is unwilling to support. Not compete with it. So think tree planting, shopping for elderly, arts projects, river clean ups. Jg jobs could involve training component to prepare people for construction industry. Private sector needs to pay a wee bit more than jg wage to suck labour out of jg work.
Is It A Coincidence That The Good Virus News Came At The Same Time As The Catastrophic GDP Release
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-it-coincidence-good-virus-ne…
America: The Food Stamp Nation
Unemployment Benefits only last for 6 months. If still unemployed after then you go onto Food Stamps. America has over 44 million people on Food Stamps. The food stamps program's real name is Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The Food Stamp program is "hidden" from view through Electronic Benefit Transfer Cards that work just as credit cards.
Let me get this right.
They are sad to send in the lovely calves but if they could have held on to them for a bit longer would be happy to send them in as fully grown, used, cows with all the cruelty that entails, calf separation etc.
I'm calling bs on that Andrew. All animals end up at the works at some stage.
My folks keep 4 or 5 head on their lifestyle block, just to keep the freezer full and the paddocks under control. A cow's sole job in life is to eat grass and eventually get the knife, it's just a fact of life. It sounds like you've never interacted with calves, Smalltown. They are playful, friendly and inquisitive creatures. You can feed them by hand, and they will follow you around the farm because you are their friend. I fully understand Andrew's message.
" A cows sole job...."
Sounds like you are making my case.
Grew up on a dairy farm ST that's why I called BS. If some people didnt post so much they might get something done on their farm, house, just saying.
..and yes I'm as guilty.
Rain on Sunday, Monday whole N Island. Should be 20 mm but....
Those beef cows can live a long life, and often a pampered one. Bull calves are going to get the chop, same as in the wild, too many males have to be dealt with by nature.
Where were you when the sanctions were killing children in Iraq up to 500,000 children died from preventable disease, or did you potest the bombing Cambodia killing millions needlessly, or the US annihilation and destruction of Nth Korea. Did you take a stand against Mao or Stalin or just sit glued to the screen, hypocrisy seeping out of your pores?
Been up early today because I found diesel in the sump of my John deere, had to drain everything, turns out the seal had gone in lift pump, replaced pump drained then added oil and we are all go, fingers crossed. Took a while to bleed the system, those old John Deeres are amazing bits of kit. Must have had 10 liters of diesel in with the oil.
If we get this rain I have to decide if it's too late to sow some rye corn or oats/ italiaan mix. Probably will take the risk and spend a few days in tractor and a couple of thousand on seed.
Belle knows what I mean by in-calf cows, sad how so many today are removed from the reality of farming.
Also don't judge people, it's bad habit, mates a cop, he always tells me it's one thing he has to battle with, critical to doing his job properly.
Hi Aj, I have my fingers crossed for you and the rain this weekend. I had a lovely bunch of cows a few years back. They were allsorts. A bit of simmy, some murray grey, some friesian hereford x's. We started getting the dry summers. I got a bit over grazing the long acre with them. And the nights I would stay up to make sure they calved ok. So they went to the sale. I still get the photos out and go through them. As they were all different colours they were all easily identifiable. And yes some had names. I know mine went on to be farmed elsewhere. Feeling for your man who had to kill his.
I would be very careful with the ryecorn, we did rahu last year and it was really slow. It needed lots of N and lots of rain. It ended up ok. But I am going to try some triticale next time.
Belle they lifted our forecast to 17mm which would be a nice start. I don't farm beef cows as I get attached and being so dry they would be out grazing every year nearly.
How many times have you looked to the sky and thanked your god, when two year bulls head out the gate on a truck?
' I get almost all my seed from the Sth Island,I thought rye corn and Triticale were almost the same thing? I know they are really hard on your soil if taken of as hay or silage. I will put in a mix and see what does best.
Triticale and ryecorn, um I think Titicale is part wheat? I am deeply suspect about that rahu ryecorn seed we had. Many years ago we put in Rahu and it grew like crazy. It would grow half a foot a day in the frosts. Completely different plant to last years. Chalk and cheese.
Incredible. I doubt you would feel yourself to be in a very successful state of evolution, were you and your offspring to be treated as a mere commodity the way cows are. Fancy being sent off to the works while pregnant? If more intelligent life were to show up and decide such a fate for us, we'd have little grounds for complaint - we're thinking, feeling, sentient beings? So are cows. We have no need to exploit them as we do.
No he missed the barn completely. Beef cows get to keep their calves, beef cows are the most amazing animals and do a wonderful job on farms cleaning up what otherwise would be useless pasture. The calves stay on mums for a long time before weaning which would happen naturally as the cows would be in calf again. Bulls are made into steers and make at least 2 years often 3, heifers go onto to join the herd or get sold in the store.
Having seen and heard their struggles and cries for myself, none of them go to their death willingly and it is not the blissful ignorance we're told. Many of them are just male bobby calves, 'waste product' of the dairy industry and sent off not long after being born. That is truly heartbreaking. Would highly recommend that everyone look behind the curtain and watchdominion.com - extremely eye opening documentary. Free there and on YouTube. And The Game Changers on Netflix.
I've been in plenty of abattoirs and freezing works in NZ, and I'm calling bollocks on the struggles and cries.
The animals are kept as quiet and calm as possible (in fact there's a whole body of peer-reviewed literature on reducing stress before slaughter - stressed animals make poor quality meat). They can't see whats ahead of them and the stunning process is instantaneous. I'm confident that my animals are humanely handled and killed.
Who funds this literature? They can't see what's ahead of them? Nonsense. They can also certainly smell and hear what is going on for those ahead of them. They show clear signs of distress and fear on the transport trucks and through the whole offloading process till the moment they are killed. I've seen plenty of what goes on and talked directly with people who have worked or still work in these places. You cannot humanely kill them, when they clearly want to continue living and would fight against your decision to end their lives, as far as they possibly can.
Yet in nature their death could be at the hands of wolves. Who take hours to run them down. Then after ripping into their haunches to slow them down, once dropped to the ground the soft paunch of the tummy is opened up. Or if they are really unlucky, they get crook and it takes days or weeks to die a slow death. Nature is the cruellest of mothers.
Oh for gods sake get a grip Smalltown. People eat meat. Get over it. Farmers farm animals to provide that meat. And despite what you think we do have affection for our animals and sending them off to their deaths is not pleasant. It may seem to you that these two things cant exist together. Loving our animals and making a choice to kill them. Well for some of us thats what happens. I realise a lot of people will never understand this. And I will never understand your choice of lifestyle. But I dont criticise it every chance I get.
DFA recent vid with Martin North interviewing Joe Wilkes on the NZ economy and property market.
The most hilarious bit though, is that within the comments, someone reveals that ToThePoint (TTP) is a Real Estate Agent in Palmerton North and founder of Property Brokers!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJx9TzPItLM&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwA…
Fritz, the thing is, it's so easy to find yourself in an echo chamber on social media, so I value reading the comments here to get insight into a broad range of views, even the irrational ones. It's the same reason I read Russia Today, Al Jazeera, South China Post, the Daily Mail. What they print tells me a lot about what certain demographics think, the biases and narratives.
It's freakin hysterical to me that TTP turned out to be the founder of Property Brokers and a Palmy boi. Oh the oscillations of it all!
I've seen my share of competent agents, and I've seen some run their clients into the ground. What he posted was pure propaganda. Certainly contrary to a number of commentators on this site pointing out at the start of this year that it would be a really bad time to buy a house.
The one I miss the most is Cowboy. He was highly intelligent and totally nuts, but every so often he showed remarkable insight. And Wolly dropped off the radar before him. We lost Kunst to cancer, he was a nice fellow that I went to visit. There is one other whose rationale is sorely missed and stopped posting due to poor health, I hope he is still with us. If you look through ten your old articles you will see their names.
If TTP is who people claim he is then i can confirm hes not a bad bloke.
Some of the stuff he has posted on here is absolute hog wash, but I would have to take off my shoes to count how many times hes been there in abundance in peoples time of need.
Hope you're well mate!
I never got the impression that he was "bad bloke". And if being in the "property cult" makes you a bad person, then huge numbers of Kiwis are bad too. And I don't believe they are. Misguided, inexperienced in crashes, too trusting of MSM maybe or just accepting of what has been the absolute norm in NZ for a very long time. Property has been a winning investment for a long time, no taxes, high status asset, leveraging up etc etc. It's almost un-Kiwi to knock property, such is the level of national love of it.
Now, if TTP is indeed this guy, then he had his own agenda, for sure, but what was more odd to me is how much he tried to hide his success. He kept saying how much he would like to own a house in Palmy or Welly but couldn't afford to!? And this guy clearly owns multiple properties.
the same poster that outs him also links to this story:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91418098/property-brokers-manawatu-and… (note: its 1.5m, not 15m)
Oh dear and also this one, where his company tells their landlords not to offer rent relief during the pandemic.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/412965/property-brokers-tell-landlo…
All this talk of the US reopening when the virus doesn't look like it's even slightly under control over there according to the numbers.
One does imagine - are we seeing the downfall of America? As it turns inward and it faces potential/probably economic collapse, combined with huge divisions in society and political life... add to that a strongman in charge who is more than clue less and is accelerating their demise.
It's a bit worrying when they're having to stack bodies in to trucks. I would have assumed the US would have had things more under control but I guess that's impossible when you have a egotistical lunatic at the helm. BBC Coronavirus: New York funeral home puts corpses in lorries.
"Dozens of bodies have been found stored in moving lorries in New York, authorities say, after passersby complained of the smell."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52483279
Meanwhile, "Republican-led states signal they could strip workers’ unemployment benefits if they don’t return to work, sparking fresh safety fears."
Many workers in Iowa, Oklahoma and other states were making so little in their jobs that they are now better off unemployed and safe at home rather than risking their health for little money.
In the process, some states’ public comments have frustrated federal lawmakers, labor activists and public health officials, who say forcing workers to return so quickly might be dangerous — and could undermine the country’s response to the deadly pandemic.
“These states are offering people the choice to endanger your life or starve,” said Damon A. Silvers, the director of policy and special counsel for the AFL-CIO.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/republican-states-un…
Land of the free, home of the brave, society of the elite and the mudsill.
There is the possibility that China has been playing chess and is at least 10 moves ahead of the USA. Look at the results of this virus, if you could have figured the possibility of the current situation and you were China you would have deliberately released it on your own population so it could spread world wide and destroy the USA. China has destroyed the USA economy, brought the oil price down due to all the lockdowns and killed shale oil production in the USA. If the Saudi's now get on side of China and the USD is no longer the "World currency".....Think about it, China wins the war without a single shot fired. With totally different cultures, the Chinese could contain the virus because people do what they are told and they are expendable, but there is no way the same applies to Americans. Its also incomprehensible for the west to consider it was a deliberate release and could never be proven anyway.
Splitting hairs here. He suggested (stupidly) that doctors should test it. During a press conference where his audience is scared and looking to people of authority (of which he is the top) to tell them what to do.
Sure he didn't say people should do it, but even suggesting it should be tested is beyond stupid.
For people that know UV - & far UV, is a thing and, is a disinfectant, there was never any issue.
The Cedars-Sinai UV endoscope sounds interesting.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endoscope
Usual UV is used all over here in NZ.
https://www.uvwatersystems.co.nz/uv-lamps.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI4vyTlr…
We have sold thousands of UV lamps over the years.We guarantee to provide the best quality. Our systems have been tested to ensure the processing formulas and the lamps are balanced to output, intensity and flow.
We Supply Systems and Parts to Major Cities and Towns in New Zealand: Whangarei, Auckland, Tauranga, Mount Maunganui, Cambridge, Whakatane, Hamilton, Taupo, Rotorua, Hastings, Gisborne, Napier, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Tokoroa, Carterton, Masterton, Wellington, Porirua, Upper Hutt, Lower Hutt, Whanganui, Nelson, Blenheim, Christchurch, Timaru, Ashburton, Dunedin, Greymouth, Queenstown, Wanaka, Invercargill, and all rural towns and county areas.
Indeed, it was unwise talk not outright advice.
I do find myself constantly blinking in surprise at this reality we live in where Biff Tannen is president and many intelligent folk find themselves passionately defending a reality TV personality who inherited his wealth and produced multiple failed businesses afterwards. I'm half wondering whether we'll see the same thing again in future. Perhaps it'll be Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian next time.
Considering the recent research showing the effect of uv, temp and humidity on Covid then the NZ Aus bubble is mainly a risk to Oz, not so much to NZ. We should be very keen to open the border.
Moving into winter we will have more risk, but we do have high humidity year round in many places.
There was an early paper based on China data which showed the same thing. Very low temps and humidity in NYC, not surprising they got hammered.
Our household has been musing the possible effects of UV on the virus too. Australia and NZ do seem to be doing particularly well against the virus, lockdown and seasonal influences notwithstanding.
The below BBC article indicates no studies have been done yet so we don't know. But there is a very big ozone hole over NZ and I do wonder whether it may be having any impact on public transmission.
If we aren't able to completely eradicate the virus before southern hemisphere winter, that will be the real test, but looking more and more likely we will, which of course is a great thing so long as borders stay closed.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-wi…
Re US UNEMPLOYMENT ............Our Government still has no clue as to how many people have actually lost their jobs .
We cannot rely on the jobseekers welfare payment numbers , because many job seekers do not qualify for welfare , so are excluded .
The jobseekers welfare is paid only to jobseekers who have no savings , dont own more than one property , or are business owners who are in the standown period .
If the numbers are understated, as we suspect , then Cindy and Billy Bunter need to be held to account
I'll be impressed if NZ's unemployment rate stays below 12%. On another note, one thing I'm looking forward to is seeing One Roof change it's tune over the coming months. If things go the way I'm thinking with the property market, NZME may even cull the site completely.
@Paulo ...........That 2% increase has to be sales before lockdown .............just wait until you try to sell , thats the only time the truth will come to light .
There is no way in hell prices went up 2% this past month , I wonder what stats are used because if its settlement data then those sales were done between December and March during which time the market was rising
UK business loan scheme.
After rising pressure, the Government announced on 27 April the new small business ‘bounce back loans’ also know as the ‘microloan’ scheme. This will have 100% Government backing for lenders. The aim is that this fast track scheme, without the need for viability tests, will give businesses the ability to borrow between £2,000 and £50,000 with the funds being sent to businesses within days. The loans will be interest free for the first 12 months and accessed across the existing network of accredited lenders. More information is set to be released soon, with availability for applications promised on Monday 4 May.
@smalltown .....lets not be parochial now , John Key was the best Prime Minister we have ever had in my entire 60-something years on this planet .
He was just amazing , and he and Bill English were our A-TEAM .
We were the rockstar economy of the world under his excellent leadership and guidance , taxes came down , the economy boomed , jobs were plentiful , exports grew , roads were built , and infrastructure developed .
It was our GOLDEN DECADE , and would like to see him come back to sort out Cindy's awful mess she has made
Boatman that's bollocks.
They represented the rape-the-planet-now, hell-with future generations sector.
Selfish all. Heck, English even had six offspring. What kind of arrogance does that?
Take your blinkers off, man. This is looking like the inevitable re-set. If it ain't, it sure as hell looks like a good dummy-run. Time to dump failed ,mantrs - including 'endless growth'.
Perhaps Key embodied all the traits that folk who found Gordon Gekko an example to aspire to sought.
I voted for him because he campaigned against Working for Families ("communism by stealth!" as he called it) and for addressing the housing crisis for generations of NZers. And for targeting productivity instead of asset inflation.
He was disappointing. Accumulated political capital he did not spend. Achieved his childhood dream of being PM, but not much else.
My favourite - The Taxpayers Union, holding Govt spending to account for wasteful spending and all that jazz - https://www.taxpayers.org.nz
9 employees claiming $60,436.80 of wage subsidy, delicious, delicious irony.
@Fritz be careful what you wish for , its the productive business sector that pays all the taxes that keep us afloat .............GST, Income Tax , Company Tax you name it .
And lets not forget that nothing has changed for beneficiaries , they stayed at home in April doing nothing........... just like they normally do , AND they got a welfare increase
Warren Buffett’s favourite sharemarket indicator has climbed to a record high, signalling stocks are overvalued and another crash could be coming.
The so-called “Buffett Indicator” takes the combined market capitalisations of a country’s publicly traded stocks and divides that by quarterly gross domestic product.
https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/04/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-indic…
(NB: Not that Warren made his loot in the stock market, but it's interesting, all the same!)
There is no timing indicator that gets it 100% 'right', and who says you need one to make money?
You can make money in the market winning only 25% of the time if your winners are massive and losses are very very small
Conversely you can lose money winning >90% of the time if your wins are small and losses are massive
Most trend traders would be lucky to win rates of 40-60% if they were looking to get average reward to risk ratios > 2:1
It's a trade off.. so using generic comments like 'indicator that gets the timing right' are meaningless...
Buffett is a genius, but also a fundamental investor I've read books about his approach and also his mentor Benjamin Graham
His indicator is a rough guide at best... and not really actionable unless you had specific rules about how to use it
COVID 19 death toll = 19 deaths over 4 months
Normal Influenza deaths in NZ = 400 - 600 per annum, that's an average of 33 - 50 per month - clearly this would have a bell curve during winter
Is it worth the extreme financial and secondary social costs due to rising unemployment?
As well as the loss of basic civil liberties?
Have to try to see situations from both sides... and not believe what is simply said on TV
Gingerninja,
I share your frustration.
Some commenters may have only just joined the conversation after the topic was discussed at length earlier and the commenter is unaware of your previous comments on the subject. Unfortunately this platform format does not have a single venue (web page) where all discussion on one topic is centralized and easily accessible (like a chat forum). It does have a search function, however the uninformed commenter may choose not to use it.
Instead of repeating yourself, perhaps just keep a list of links to articles of your detailed comments on the subject and repost that set of links here so people can get up to speed if they choose to.
Also, thank you for sharing your medical thoughts & medical experience on the subject.
What you are politely saying is Gingerninja's response above is very childish and counterproductive and there would be much better ways of doing it. I rarely read her comments because of this.
People are right to question things. The WHO are now praising Sweden. It's hard to keep up!
“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” claimed Dr. Ryan (executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies Program)
So Uh Oh is right to not believe what is simply said on TV.
"What you are politely saying is Gingerninja's response above is very childish and counterproductive and there would be much better ways of doing it."
That is your interpretation, and that is a totally incorrect interpretation.
Gingerninja shares their perspective as one with medical experience. I welcome experienced professional perspectives, to inexperienced perspectives. (For example, would I read perspectives on COVID-19 from a real estate agent with no professional experience whatsoever in the medical field? The answer is no. That would be akin to taking COVID-19 medical advice from Mike Hosking.)
Regarding Sweden, there are some unique diiferences that I read that might explain some differences:
1) high number households are single people (40%?)
2) there is less obesity in Sweden
I've got no expertise or experience in the medical area, so I've got no informed viewpoint on this matter, so I choose to shut up, listen, and learn from others who are the experts and professionals in this area.
For what its worth, having experienced SARS firsthand in Asia, all health workers and essential workers are doing a tremendous job during this epidemic. (There was a story of a 42 year old sanitation worker in the US who died after contracting COVID-19)
Also there are 2 differences between SARS and COVID-19
1) COVID-19 carriers can be asymptomatic (unlike SARS)
2) COVD-19 currently has no proven treatment protocol that I'm aware of. SARS had Tamiflu.
Temperature test as you arrive for work.
Who gets to check how you are feeling?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/415560/countdown-installs-temperatu…
This is a step beyond drug testing, Is it ok for employers to look at their employee's fit bits too?
I like the BMI test that is in L3....if you out of shape you need to stay at home. Doubt many employers try to tackle that one with their employees. "agh by the way you are too over weight to be at work can you stand down please"...sure no problem I'm off to my lawyer.
Nine new cases in NSW, half due to community transmission
NSW has recorded nine new cases overnight with "four or five" due to community transmission, Premier Gladys Berejkilian has told reporters this morning.
Residents of the Penrith Local Government Area have been singled out to present for testing, with NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant saying a particularly bad strain of the virus has become present in clusters in the area.
"Our genetic testing has indicated there has been a certain strain of the virus in that area," Dr Chant said.
The strain has been detected at Anglicare's Newmarch House at Caddens as well as in other clusters.
its only NSW and VIC and tasmania, the rest have are ok, and unlike us they stop the cars at the borders, i find it strange we can not use our army and open some of the zero regions up fully with only trucks allowed in an out.
take the west coast you only have a few roads to block off and they could open up to level 1
northern territory are ready to fully open up and have shown the way to full recovery if you can get it out
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-more-than-30-m…
ICYMI: Latest UMR polling
Labour 55
Nat 29
NZF 6
GRN 5
ACT 3
via https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/1255990513418682369
Ardern 65
Bridges 7
Collins 7
Peters 3
via https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/1255983535288053760
"I have been able to confirm with a highly reliable source that @NZNationalParty is 29% in the latest UMR poll sent to its corporate clients. This is not a bullshit whispered “private poll” but one they have put their brand to and sent to people who pay a lot of money for it."
via https://twitter.com/MatthewHootonNZ/status/1255977963155189760
However, UMR warned that the political numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
"They [the poll numbers] need to be interpreted extremely carefully. The conventional wisdom is that natural disasters (and wars) are usually good for governments but that those effects can wear off quickly."
via https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12328854
Look who is talking (Lobbying Propganda /Experts with Biased Vested Interest) :
https://i.stuff.co.nz/tarana/latest/121329855/housing-market-has-just-s…
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