Another very large rise in US jobless claims; spike in bankruptcies; China posts surprising export rise, car sales gains; Airbus grinds to virtual standstill; UST 10yr yield at 0.63%; oil unchanged and gold jumps; NZ$1 = 60.9 USc; TWI-5 = 66.8

Can anyone really expect to believe numbers that China gives us?

Whats the Bank of England sitting on top of?

Andrew, very thought provoking and a timely reminder. History does have a scary habit of repeating and the loss of the previous generations causes the loss of the awareness of what could happen. In these days, I don’t think we should divide along party lines (Labour National) and slag one another off because of perceived beliefs. Similarly, the slagging of Boomers and Millenials is counter productive. We need to work together to hold whoever is in power, accountable to the rule of law, the judicial process and the preservations of our freedoms. By dividing us they conquer us. Again, a great post.

I assume the book does mention it although this summary doesn't, but an important part of the process was the consequences of the Treaty of Versailles, imposed on Germany after WW1. The hamstringing of their economy opened the door for the likes of the Nazi Party and Hitler to slide into their Chancellery and then seize power. So largely the west brought WW2 on themselves. an interesting comparison was how MacArthur treated Japan after the war, ensuring their ability to rebuild their economy, guaranteeing their security which combined to ensure their prosperity despite their being so culturally different from us.

Banned on youtube. They are desperate that no one questions their secret motives:

The 25-minute long documentary vignette claims that Mikovits has been called “one of the most accomplished scientists of her generation” and did work revolutionizing the treatment of HIV/AIDs. The documentary says she published a “blockbuster” study that claimed “the common use of animal and human fetal tissues were unleashing devastating plagues of chronic diseases.” The “minions of Big Pharma” then waged war against her, destroying her “good name, career and personal life,” the vignette claims. She criticizes Fauci in the video. She has also criticized Fauci on her Twitter page.https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/judy-mikovits/

Andrewj, you might enjoy this book. I highly recommend it. Never realised when I was younger that the author was such a brilliant writer (in content, prose and poetry) and student of history: https://www.amazon.com/Cultural-Amnesia-Necessary-Memories-History/dp/0…

When the apparent recovery comes …

"The post-pandemic recovery will be different from what happened after the last financial crisis, he argues, partly because bank balance sheets are stronger now and the Federal Reserve is allowing them to lend aggressively. While the current collapse in demand will keep prices of goods and services from rising in the short run, Jones doubts that the Fed can prevent that from happening over the longer term."

Tell him hes dreaming

Happy USD $10,000 bitcoin!

You didn't connect this post with your Friday book post?
I've heard stories of non German speaking attendees at Hitler rallies totally caught up by the crowd and his unintelligible oratory.

It is the new normal, at the first sign of trouble we helicopter money to investment bankers. Investments go up.

I think the important piece here is to remember stock markets have been disconnected from fundamentals for quite some time and are the major recipients of any money printing. Now that the Fed is spending/creating/printing money like a drunken sailor, markets have risen substantially as a result, showing further disconnection from reality. This has created (even before the current crisis) a "two stream" economy, one based in the real world, one the financialised economy. And the reason nobody wants to stop it is the two are intertwined, if the financialised economy drops, pension funds, housing etc is in real trouble. Central banks are trying to print their way into growing economies, but it is likely they will make the problem worse not better.

So there is something like $1.5 quadrillion (yes you read that right) tied up in derivatives based on financial bets, all propped up by this financialised economy. World debt is something like 250% of GDP or more. If any of this dramatically collapses, all the banks are in trouble, probably everywhere in the world. All those in power want to protect the banks, so they ensure the banks cannot collapse, so they extend and pretend that the financialised economy is the real economy. Politicians will point to this fake growth as a result of their "wise management" to retain power, so the "extend and pretend" belief infects our political systems as well.

Only thing that will stop it is if the printer runs out of ink.

You look at that, at Airways, then all the support staff at the airports, all the food, cleaning, maintenance etc. There must be thousands of jobs being impacted. And there will be mortgages to pay.

doesn't sound inflationary to me ...

[ Silly insult deleted. Ed ]

Did you see the Top Gear show, when they painted slogan on their car Gay and proud and drove it through the deep South. They got fired upon and had to ditch the car in fear of their lives...

And the takeaway for those who might not read that link:

“Suppose central banks pushed back against today’s flight into government debt by going further, cutting short-term policy rates to, say, -3% or lower.
Well it would be absolutely devastating not only for what's left of savers but the banking sector and by implication - since banks control everything ....the economy.
What does a negative interest rate mean, aside from the obvious death sentence for banks and a deflationary collapse for the global economy? We have written thousands of articles (literally) why sliding into this monetary twilight zone - where both Japan and Europe already are to be found, frozen in monetary carbonite - means "game over", but instead of recapping article after article we will give the final word to the bond king Jeff Gundlach himself, who conveniently summarized it best last night when he tweeted that a rate 0 is "fatal".”

I have no doubt we'll see similar figures in NZ when the news cycle eventually stops singing the govts praises. It's bloody tragic.

Imagine in a scenario where the Director General of Health and the PM get up in front of the cameras everyday at 1pm to update us on the numbers of suicides and domestic violence incidents in NZ. That would be sobering. And we'd understand quite quickly what a real epidemic looks like.
But no. It's a coronavirus with a patented cell entry protein that gets all the air time.

Suicide happens at the best of times and the worst of time - it just happens.
I'm sure we all know someone who's done it ( Mine was John Taylor. Who bought land next to me in Christchurch and started building a home. He overextended himself and his business by doing so ( Taylors Laundry Services) and drove out to a quiet, lonely road and gassed himself in the back seat of the car).
Tragic though it always is; as it is now, no one knew that 60,000 New Zealanders weren't to be killed by Covid19. ( on estimate). What was our Government supposed to do faced with that possibility?

The media are actually out of control - how are they allowed to print this BS?

There has never been a pandemic in history that has not had devastating economic and social impacts. It is naive to expect this pandemic to be any different. We must instead prepare for this impact and invest in the resources needed to support those in need. Resources that have been massively underfunded over the last 20 years in NZ, who already had some of the worst mental health and suicide statistics in the world.

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In PPP terms it looks different : Graphic evidence

Chinese GDP is a number concocted by Chinese govt. External estimates put it far lower - as little as half of what is claimed.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-g…

It's a good point. And it suggests aggressive Chinese bans may be unnecessary. Their wealth and power will diminish regardless.

Meanwhile the pointy heads at treasury continue to puzzle over why the demand for banknotes defies gravity, even before C19

I read that article mouth agape. If I was in China, Philippines, India etc on a work visa and became unemployed I can assure you there would zero sympathy from the government or citizens of those countries. They would laugh in my face if I suggested the tax payer should provide me with financial assistance. I would be homeless on the street. Why should the NZ taxpayer be expected to pay benefits for those that aren't entitled? This man should contact his embassy and get back to China if there is no work available.

Above - In China there was a surprise rise in April exports, but imports tumbled - but that tumble didn't include trade with New Zealand although it did with Australia.

Are we about to join Club Australia with diminished exports to China?

CJ. OK. Will do. How about you also start work on a list of names of people you choose to die over the long tail of a depression that is more severe than would have been the case under a less draconian lockdown.