Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some awful economic records.
Today's big news is that more than 20 mln people lost their jobs in the US in April, according to their official data.
At the same time, another 2 mln people lost their jobs in April in Canada. Between the two, that is 22.5 mln extra people jobless in just one month. We want to try and put that into perspective.. That is like saying everyone in the workforce in New Zealand (2.8 mln), Australia (13.0 mln), Singapore (3.8 mln), and Hong Kong (3.9 mln) all lost their jobs in one four week period.
But it is worse than that. The US data is based on a survey taken on April 12, and things got substantially worse after that. And at the same time, the same survey reveals that the American labour force shrank because a remarkable -6.5 mln adults withdrew from their labour force on top of the -1.6 mln who did the same in March. So in two months 8 mln more people gave up looking for work and these people are no longer counted as being in their workforce, so the unemployment numbers ignore them. Their participation rate fell to almost 60%, the lowest since 1969 more than fifty years ago.
And of course, the jobless numbers don't count those who have had their pay cut, their working hours cut (or both), or are in the casual, gig economy (survey data for these workers is difficult). All up it is an epic economic disaster and one that will probably be repeated in May, despite the desperate attempt there to restart their economy. You just cannot take the purchasing power of that many people out of the giant American economy and not have long-term global economic implications. The hurt will spread to New Zealand and our export markets.
And the impact is playing havoc with the US Federal Government finances. The federal budget typically records a surplus in April because of the timing of tax payments. But this year, the incurred a deficit of -US$737 bln in April compared with a surplus of +US$160 bln last year. Remember, it was just a few weeks ago, estimates were being made that the full year deficit could exceed -US$1 tln. Well, they got close in April by itself. The revised estimates are now closing in on -US$4 tln.
There is a heap of hurt being reported elsewhere around the world for April. For example, the Brazilian car production fell -99% (!), Mexico's car production fell by almost the same, Israel's factory sector dived, and industrial production in Spain, Germany and Norway all fell very sharply in data reported overnight. The global economic carnage is widespread.
Not everything was disastrous. Canada's housing starts fell sharply, but not by as much as feared. And Canada's building permit levels were also down sharply, but not to levels feared. (But there may be questions now about whether any of these projects will be started soon.)
And in Europe overnight, finance ministers accepted a plan for a €240 bln credit extension on very cheap terms allowing under-pressure governments to access huge amounts of new borrowed money.
And in China, there is more evidence that a return to normal life is also bring an economic upswing. But being the only game in town also means that China is pressing its advantages for access to that rebound. It is pretty callous in how it is doing that. It cares little for its neighbours.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 3,910,100 and up +126,000 from this time yesterday which is a substantial level of increase.
Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +42,000 since this time yesterday to 1,274,000. This is also a faster rate of increase. US deaths are now more than 77,000. Global deaths now exceed 272,000. The much faster increases are coming in four key countries, Russia, Brazil, India and Peru. And there is no slowing in either Sweden or the UK although almost all other European countries seem to have fast declining daily infection rates. The public policy choices made in Sweden and the UK have been a disaster for them both and on a population basis, even worse than the US.
In Australia, there are now 6914 cases (+18 since yesterday), 97 deaths (unchanged) and an unchanged recovery rate of just on 88%. 58 people are in hospital there (-4) with 23 in ICU (-4).
There are 1490 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with one new case yesterday in an Auckland aged care cluster (the day prior was +1). Twenty-one people have died, unchanged in a day, almost all geriatric patients. There are now three people left in hospital with the disease (+1), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 90% and still rising, which means there are now only 143 people known to be infected in New Zealand and the lowest since March 24.
Wall Street is higher today, and more US states move to re-open for business. The S&P500 is up +1.7% so far and heading for a weekly rise of +3.5%. Overnight European markets rose by more than+1% and markets like the Frankfurt DAX were up only +0.4% for the week, but the FTSE100 was up +3%. Yesterday, both Shanghai and Hong Kong markets rose about +1% on the day with Shanghai up +1.2% for their shortened week, and Hong Kong was down -1.7% for the period. Tokyo registered no gain, falling for most of the week but recovering it all at the end. The ASX200 gained +2.8% over the week, while the NZX50 Capital Index gained +2.4%.
The UST 10yr yield is rising in trade in New York, now just over 0.68% and a +5 bps gain. Their 2-10 curve is up sharply to +52 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also little-changed at +58 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 0.95%. The China Govt 10yr is up another +3 bps at 2.63%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield has gone the other way, down -6 bps to 0.57%.
Gold is lower today, down -US$14 to US$1,706/oz.
Oil prices are marginally higher today, up about +50c. In the US, they are currently at just on US$24.50/bbl. International oil prices are just on US$30.50/bbl. The closing of US drilling wells continues with a much lower rig count again, now back to record-low levels since the current data set began in 1991. It will likely go much lower yet.
The Kiwi dollar is +½c higher overnight, and is now at 61.3 USc on a slipping greenback. On the cross rates we are back up to 94 AUc. Against the euro we are +¼c firmer at 56.6 euro cents. These rises mean the TWI-5 is up to 67.3 and its highest in two months.
Bitcoin is higher again today, but by less than +1% to US$9,963 but that means it has risen +US$1100 or +12% in just the past week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
170 Comments
Isolated people still catching the virus, in fact they are the largest risk group in NY. While it is hard to really know what will happen, I suspect we are going to see a mean second wave about July/August that nothing will stop.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/shocking-two-thirds-patients-recen…
"Therefore, to avoid contact with the patient’s saliva and blood may not be enough, since the survival of SARS-CoV-2 (ie: Covid19) in a recovering patient’s semen maintains the likelihood to infect others."
Very HIV like isn't it!
https://tinyurl.com/yclva7kr
Is this China's version of taking over the world as reported by Tucker Carlson from Fox News today. I wonder what Putin is thinking about as to how could his communist allies could do such an act. His country appears to be suffering badly due to the pandemic. Of course we will never really know the complete cost of lives and financial depression as these two countries just close ranks. Lets hope there isn't another spread of the virus in June/ July - traditionally the winter time for the USA and Europe- as economically this would be disastrous for the global economy. I doubt whether the world would recover.
I think Cuomo doesn't understand his own stats. There is nothing 'shocking' about this in fact it's exactly what you would expect to see.
'66 percent came from their own homes.'
Where the f-k else would they be coming from???? The space station? Another example of breathless stats illiterate journalism. The last paragraph literally explains why this is a non-story.
'"The largest group of us are still at home, so it's not surprising that the largest source (of recent hospitalizations) are people at home," Kumi Smith, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Minnesota, told NBC News.'
I have to imagine Dr Smith struggled to withhold the "duh" from the end of that sentence.
Saying 66% of infections came from people at home is totally meaningless without saying what total % of people are at home. This data doesn't tell you they are the 'largest risk group' all it tells you is they are the largest group. To say they are the 'largest risk group' you would need to show that they are being infected AT A HIGHER RATE than any other group. Maybe that's true, but this data doesn't show it.
In any case, this is not a comparison of who GOT INFECTED while working versus staying at home. The survey asked where people were STAYING. The categories don't include 'workplace.' So why would the 66% not contain ALL the people who are still working? Safe to assume none of them are homeless, in prison, or in a nursing home.
USA now over 1mill active cases. To take it simply, look at flight tracker 100s of flights going everywhere, and down below will be much much more for trains and buses, cars, trucks. Millions of people on the move state to state, city to city, community to community. What percentage then amongst those numbers are CV19 carriers?The USA is not controlling the virus they are growing it. The nation is in deep , deep trouble.
The federal government's $600/week boost to unemployment benefits has a lot to answer for in terms of the unemployment surge;
The average worker received about $378 a week in state unemployment benefits prior to the relief law, according to the Labor Department. The law boosts that weekly total to $978 a week — a 159% increase.
Anyone on less than a $70,000 pa wage is better off being unemployed. It was stimulus madness.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/unemployment-benefits-will-be-reduced-a…
The "we're reopening the economy, everything is fine now" narrative that seems to be prevalent over there is mind boggling. They have barely even managed a downtrend in their daily new cases during their "lockdown" phase, why is anyone expecting any other outcome than an explosion of growth in case numbers as they reopen. Seems like a crazy crazy percentage of the population believe the whole thing is a media conspiracy.
Opening up when they didn’t really close down anyway, mind boggling is an understatement. The USA graph line is not flattening, it is climbing and this strategy will send it towards vertical. Words like apocalyptic and armageddon come to mind. Our old neighbours have been house bound for seven weeks now. Nothing but a daily walk, just the two of them, no physical contact with anyone. It is not the American lifestyle but they are elderly, vulnerable and know they have no other option, maybe for a year they told us. Keep out of harms way, hobson’s choice!
Don’t know, seems some just too happy to believe what they want to believe until something actually impacts on them personally. Whole situation is beyond incredible. Read how three marines had to subdue an unruly passenger on a flight from Japan to Texas. Hell Japan has got an infection curve same as the States, why invite in more? The whole damn country is simply trafficking in the virus.
Wait.. maybe you guys don't know? There is a conspiracy revealed by the totally legit but oppressed world leading intellectual called David Icke (actually an ex UK sports presenter, turned New Ager, turned conspiritard) and an anonymous blog somewhere that has revealed the miraculous truth, the virus is actually just a totally predictable case of sniffles that only ever knocks out a few nanna's and only 2 months before they would have died anyway... and no threat to the economy. It's all just a hoax and even though all the data shows that consumer spending had radically slowed before any lockdowns, it's actually the lockdowns that have caused every problem and obviously all the governments in the world just naturally choose to crash their economies with lockdowns for no reason at all, they are literally just that stupid, the real problem is that they have actual scientists advising them, who ruin and corrupt everything.... when they should obviously been taking the guidance of anonymous bloggers and ex-sports presenters turned conspiritards who love liberty hmmmmmmkay? Now please can we all just get a haircut for the love of Jesus? Pandemics couldn't possibly cause recessions without lockdowns its all the governments fault, all of them, everywhere.
BBC Coronavirus bailouts: Which country has the most generous deal? "Coronavirus shutdowns around the world have pushed countries into crisis-mode, prompting a massive rescue spending in an effort to soften the blow from what is expected to be the worst economic contraction since the 1930s."
"As of 7 April, countries around the world had approved more than $4.5tn worth of emergency measures, according to the IMF. That figure has only grown in the weeks since."
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52450958
Something to show your grand daughter. Here's what 100 trillion dollars looks like.
https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03338/Zimbabwe__100…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/07/chinese-hackers-behin…
Don't for a moment believe we havent been attacked since Labour took over.
Before that Jian Yang saved them a lot sweat. We really shouldn't be in 5 Eyes when the Nats are in charge - wait for the other 4 to wake up to this.
Have the advantage of a totalitarian state. Until Nixon started chatting to them all was hidden behind the bamboo curtain.It is not now even halfway down and it can go right back up at a moments notice. The USA as democracy has to contend with an open press which is able to be inclined to embellish according to partisanship. The Chinese press is the complete opposite. Don’t know if the regime in China has much of a conscience about anything at all and how they would regard the success of CV19 in crippling the economies and societies of the Western Powers is anybody’s guess.
(From comments below that piece0
The biggest issue is the baby boomers retiring, it will pull a lot of people out of the workplace, while simultaneously turning a lot of pension funds into net subtractors from stock markets and more.
The general thought seems to be that the fed will basically just buy up all of the boomers stocks at crazy high valuations, but, the problem is that unlike the previous bailouts, directly giving mass printed money to a large section of the general public will cause massive inflation. The previous money printed, was mostly just stockpiled and so with such a low money velocity, inflation didn’t skyrocket. The Fed may attempt it for some period of time, but, doing it for too long will endanger the US Dollar, and thus the Fed. I think the Fed will have enough self preservation, to not totally destroy the US Dollar.
It’s also important to remember that as soon as people lose confidence in the stock market, people will pull out, as well as stop putting in.
If everyone starts to lose their retirements, that might be big enough to cause large change.
That contains some amazing stats. Hourly pay spiking nearly 20% (pretty sure I got that right). Basically just cut the tail loose and let it die.
One of those unemployment graphs showed how bad the 10years 75-84 were.
But nothing compares with the way 2020 either spikes or dives. I guess it's just a product of so many years in the making.
I was shocked look at the pictures of the drought at the lack of trees. I don't know why farmers don't plant trees and see farm forestry as part of their income stream. I am not talking pines but high value hardwoods.
One problem is trees like cool roots, when you have denuded the place it's very hard to get anything established, eucalypts would be an obvious choice along with poplars and willows. Even then survival would be low with pests hares etc.
I find sycamores are a hardy ground cover for shading other trees. When I look at those fields with no shade for stock, no shelter from winter winds or spring nor-westers, I do wonder what the hell is wrong with them. You can use shelter trees to increase grass growth, you could have 20-30% of you farm in trees with no drop in production.
We should all have income every few years from farm forestry. It would help in the difficult years and make our farms much nicer places to live.
This guy in Australia is doing it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72j4FiyCHCc
Sycamores can be a pain, however we have horses so most of these problems disappear, no tree a horse cannot destroy in the first day.
I have a great friend I stay with in Normandy. They share a forest with the local Monastery, they manage it and split the income, 200 hectares of beech and sycamore amongst others, managed on a 200 year rotation, pruned, it's a great earner for the farm and keeps the farm workers employed in winter. They sell the hunting rights for £25,000 pa. When I was there last I was helping spread blackberry for the pigs to hide in, so they had an extra animal to hunt, crops like maize and Rape seed grown around edges for wild animals to hide in. The firewood alone is a big earner.
I use sycamore because they can survive years like this, as can some species of oak most others have died apart from some deodar cedar . Once I get that forest environment, I can plant trees that will grow through the canopy and push the trees I planted as ground cover out.
My knowledge of sycamores from owning two small gardens in East London: they grow like weeds, they suck the moisture and goodness out of the ground, they produce a pollen that is infected by a fungus that turns it into sticky black tar - wrecks anything left below tree.
Andrewj. Thanks for the links yesterday. Got some trees grouped on the banks of the Kawarau in Central Otago. For looking good. 15 years now.
Perennial drought here, Around 300mm per annum rainfall. But all the irrigation I need.
My observation would be anything North American does better (Nothing does well.)
Notably Scarlett Oak and Liquidamber.
once you shade the ground you will be amazed what can grow. I always notice what's growing as I drive about the country. Wanganui can pretty much grow everything well.
I'd recommend having a talk with Eric Appleton of Appletons tree nursery Wakefield, or his son Robert. They have an amazing resource of different trees.
I would have thought you could probably grow a range of trees once you get that cold root environment going, Im taking it you are after fall colours? I have grown Kawa poplars, both as shade and and for timber. The colours are amazing and they don't lose their leaves till mid June around here, fast growing and create that root shade.
How this for a good story. About ten years ago a certain railway decided to use sleepers imported from Spain or Portugal, they were sawn sleepers looked like creosoted. Anyway ,they ordered a few must have been a good deal so 100k turned into 200k turned into 400k. They went in under crossings on main lines, bridges, everywhere. The problem is they had a bacteria they picked up on their travels which rotted them in 8 years, so now that poor old railway company is having to make several lines class two, with a top speed of 70km due to all these rotten sleepers. The company is good old NZ rail of course.
The thing is, if someone offered me a deal on some new type farm posts ,I would try them on one fence first and see what happens, ( we have done this before). Good old NZ rail went full hog.
Tis why they are overpaid, so they be overpaid some more.
Plus attempting climbing the slippery pole of the property ladder......and propping up the Money Laundering QE. & copying of the US Dollar printing subset....They have to wash their hands, quite frequently....at the Leaders behest, naturally.
But, infrastructure.....like Kiwi-build...not a chance. in a Billion.
That will be the same NZR that accepted a Chinese rail carriage tender from China and forced the Railway workshops in Dunedin to shut down. Even though they tendered the same price. Needless to say the Chinese ones were a pile of badly made junk, right from day one. It can only be gross incompetence or corrupt practice that enables these kind of decisions to be made.
Quite expensive to maintain the large shelter-belts some big machinery needed. We have lots of Leylandii in the Waikato but gets a root canker.. i pull them down and replace with Japanese cedar but they need irrigation and no stock for the first few years. We need more trees in our NZ paddocks, hate seeing stock out in the sun.
I found that out the hard way. It's better to plant trees like cypress or pine close together, perhaps 2m -2.5m apart long ways and 1.5m width between trees, three rows wide. I tried this, pruned them up, had about 5kms of very nice trees, wish I had tried some 4 rows wide. Got shelter, got shade and some valuable timber. The trees didn't mind being that close as they got lots of sun from the sides yet had enough competition to go up, I pruned them to stop them going out. Both species are tough enough to survive.
I read a report about this a decade or two ago. The trees take the sun off the grass and also bring up water from lower an add it to the above ground moisture in that area.
A tree that can tolerate low water for a period and produced a crop of value, wood / nuts / fruit / truffles would be another income stream. Maybe deciduous to allow better sun penetration in the winter could also be an advantage. Alternatively a tree with edible leads and stems that are pruned for winter food for the stock.
I dont know why we still have green desert when this kind of information has been out there for a very long time.
We’ve been feeding our few sheep on tree lucerne/tagasaste for the last 4 months. They seem to be doing very well on it and love to eat the bark. Chop and drop or graze to death by ring barking is optional. Quick growing, self seeding, nitrogen fixing, pruned trees drop nitrogen, bark stripped branches make great firewood. We have bumblebee, honeybee and bellbird tagasaste tenements as well as sweet blossom just beginning. Our hens eat the blossom and neighbours cattle eat all they can reach. Also acts as a nurse tree for other trees and provides shade and rain catching whenever all year round. A great perennial cropper for poor dry soils but does requires control work. We only have a small block but have seen video of how the Aussies create taga feed corridors for their cattle.
I went and looked at a local farmers place in Feb, Tagasaste was one of the options I thought would be his best option, light soils prone to wind damage. Perhaps planted in rows like in Australia, as it was he had like two trees on the whole farm. Windswept and barren.
I think it's very hard to convert if you have debt. I'm trying it on a few small paddock but i'm looking at solar capture and using shade crops etc. As CO noticed he had Arrest drench on his ute which means he has resistance to other worm drenches, he also has a center pivot. It's so dependent on your individual circumstances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S1hRzBuMz4&t=2107s
Korki. You mentioned your soils are peat. Peat is a good store for carbon so long as it is wet. But once it is drained it is an emitter of CO2. So it depends what you are trying to do from an environmental point of view. In Denmark farmers are divided over plans to flood their peatlands to reduce carbon emissions. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/28/danish-farmers-plan-to-fl…
Thanks for that, something I'll have to consider. In general I try to keep my water table as high as possible without causing pugging - to retain moisture over the summer.
From an environmental point of view, I was just trying to grow cattle with out external inputs, and retain as much biodiversity as possible - with a view to take it to a bigger scale.
All farmers know the worst soil is under/near a fenceline. regenerative agriculture is "defined by its outcomes, rather than by its practices", according to Dr Gwen Grelet, a research biologist with Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research. https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-life-other/ground
Interest eds - I think AndrewJ's farming sitreps and small epistles really demand their own Rural channel. I'm an avid reader, and the comments threads that follow his novellae are blessedly free of the incantations, ad-homs and other Blots on the Landscape that occur elsewhere. What say you?
In the 1930s the market crash was a trigger. Govts haven't let that trigger be pulled since 08. But have inadvertantly lit a fuse on a bomb that looks set to explode. With no changed habits since then we've got compounding market forces on the impending depression. My money's on it being bigger numbers wise, and more far reaching than the 30s. If govts stick to the playbook, war is the way out in 5-10 years.
I dont know about your money but the BOE said yesterday that this thing is going to be bigger than anything since the Great Frost of 1706.
I cant help thinking that globalization together with the debt taken on from that has a lot to answer for. The Spanish Flu medically was a giant compared to this but economically it was a hiccup in history
Growth phoney. I suspect all the Wuhan virus effect is the proverbial straw.
All bad news are Big and have no good news, still stock market is rising.
What fundamental is supporting it..... 3 Trillion dollar bail out for Now and more to come or 4990 death instead of 5000 death by corona virus or some announcement on medical experiment..... What ?
Reciep For Disaster.
ASB kiwisaver As at 30 Apr 2020
3 mths 6 mths 1 year 3 years(p.a.)5 years 7 years 10 years Since Inception (p.a.)
NZ Cash Fund 0.25% 0.57% 1.39% 1.83% 2.15% 2.48% 2.52% 3.13%
Cons'vte Fund -1.39% 0.40% 4.02% 4.75% 4.90% 5.23% 5.47% 5.24%
Mod'ate Fund -4.44% -1.99% 1.78% 4.92% 5.52% 6.18% 6.47% 5.45%
Balanced Fund -7.15% -3.73% 0.60% 5.59% 6.46% 7.59% 7.59% 5.67%
Growth Fund -10.64% -6.75% -2.29% 5.54% 6.97% 8.59% 8.33% 5.59%
Positive Impact -6.33% -2.85%
The since inception figures are interesting. There was a downturn just after kiwisaver started. thats why they are so even since then.
not yet jimbo -- as much as i want to - the massive stimulus money has to go somewhere -- we know it wont be into businesses -- or the poor or unemployed -- or in business loans -- so it has to go somewhere -- housing in NZ looks a bad bet fro once -- still building -27000 air b and bs no immigration etc -- so hard to see any return in next couple of years - just lots of downside risks -- so the market holds up -- despite the massive redundancies and bankruptcies -
love to be able to simply take it out clear off the rest of my mortgage - much better use even at 3%
How the hell is wall street up on this calamitous news I will never know, mad!
Also I thought Sweden was everyones favourite covid control country?
Thankfully we have taken the steps we have, go NZ.
I'm interested to see data on how many businesses have missed their prov tax and gst payments.
That will be an indicator to how healthy our economy is.
Sweden still has a death rate that is less than a lot of countries in lockdown. The big question about Sweden is will it stop soon due to herd immunity or just keep increasing. One thing that is interesting is that they don’t seem to be getting exponential growth of cases.
Exponential growth forecasts are based on doing nothing at all. Sweden are doing social distancing, extra care, cleaning etc etc.
https://www.government.se/articles/2020/04/s-decisions-and-guidelines-i…
It is interesting. I'm sure NZ did the right thing, certainly given the info they had at the time. However Sweden decided to trust its population - if you are a nervous Swede you can choose to cower at home. NZ removed our individual autonomy - certainly if I had the option of seeing my partner on her deathbed and having a very high risk of getting covid-19 then I would take it. It will begin to be an issue.
Yeah I think we got it pretty much right too but only time will tell. The Swedish model may end up better yet (for example we may end up having to accept the virus after killing our economy too).
The worst countries are the ones that went into lockdown too late and will end up having most of the deaths as well as a prolonged economic impact. That is most of the world.
No one ever lost by underestimating the stupidity of kiwis. They are also very social animals whereas Swedes enjoy solitude, living in more single person situations than most of the world.
I personally am glad a lot of the decision making has been removed from kiwis for this, as well as removing a lot of the guns.
already is -- and the biggest failing -- not allowing people to death beds, even if they dying are not covid positive - family attend funerals -- thats basically inhumane and definately against a persons human rights -- if we were after a pure health response - not economic as stated -- then th health and wellbeing of these people and the lack of respect for greiving -- imaginge beign married 30 years and not being able to sit at a loved ones death bed --
we trusted foreign tourists to self isolate for two weeks -- but not greiving families to self isolate in the same way -- and even then the legisaltion was flawed --- how many relatives who lost a family member to covid would not have self isolated after ??? none -- not like our Aussie tourist -- tested bt still came and didnt self isolate - and we want a bubble with them ?
Kevin Milne this morning... mourning. Mourning that covid is not deeper and longer. Kevin had actually been expecting the terrible shutdown to last months and months and hoping that NZs way of life would change drastically away from the rat race. He doesnt give a stuff or a shit that such a situation would lead to incredible economic destruction. On one hand he is there boots and all promoting a carpet company and no doubt making good coin to support his own self indulgent lifestyle. A lifestyle he frequently regales us about on newstalk zb... another of his well heeled gigs. Yet he doesn't give a stuff about the hardworking and loyal workers at the likes of James Hardies who are worried they are losing their longtime employment. This guy Kevin Milne is a fake news type, dont listen to him when he is grinning into the camera. The carpet company is a good company and they deserve someone better than a guy with double allegiance
Whoa ... there's a change of subject
'I feel let down, betrayed' - How it feels to be one of thousands of newly jobless
'I feel let down, betrayed' - How it feels to be one of thousands of newly jobless
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=123306…
Settle Houseworks. I never heard the ZB piece but our Kev wouldnt want people out of work. Like many I think we are happy with a less stressful more family orientated life, yet we all have to go back to the rat race. We know that but yearn for the simpler life. At least I hope that is what was meant. I like kev and love listening to his saturday morning rant.
Certainly intrigued with China's suggested 'rebound' in such a short space of time. Can they continue to control the masquerade?
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-economic-recovery-wuhan-corona…
Can Ashley Church or any other commentar or so called experts be held to account for providing false narrative, if it turns out as many who may fall for their biased propganda and lose money or even media company for giving them a platform to spread otherwise.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/housing-market-relatively-s…
I think it's called evolution, weeding out the thickest. If anyone does not understand the likes of Church, Hosking, One Roof, any ex All Black and their ilk are on the clock they deserve all they get.
Saying that "Kiwis so dumb lah" is not just a slogan at CCP central so maybe we need all the help we can get
Nothing false about his narrative at all. I listened and Church's opinion is all peppered with modifiers and possible outcomes. It's not a prediction by any means. It's a kind of sales-driven stream of consciousness. He talks fast. Like Duncan Garner. To Hosking's credit, his rhetoric is slower, even if he uses many words to say very little.
Just for interest. We are looking for a new property. A lifestyle property came up 30 minutes south of Rotorua - Rotorua being the nearest place to get milk. It had been on for 12 hours, I emailed the agent to arrange a viewing this coming Monday, as I'd be out that way. After 24 hours I hadn't heard from her, so I called.
She said "sorry, I was trying to get back to you but have been inundated with enquires." "The house already has a conditional contract on it (after 24hrs) , but you can still make an unconditional offer if you like, but I don't have a viewing slot available for ten days, as the two per day are all full"
I know it's only one house but it shows there are still buyers out there.
And there is no slowing in either Sweden....
I've been tracking the numbers in Sweden:
April 15 - 21 3877 new cases 732 deaths
April 22 - 28 4299 new cases 590 deaths
April 29 - May 5 3595 new cases 499 deaths
Deaths appear to be slowing. Hopefully they have stopped the rest homes from getting infected now. The next couple of weeks will be interesting. The cases are not growing exponentially, actually stable to declining. I think what they want is a steady number of cases each week with declining death rates. They are, after all, going for herd immunity, so declining "cases" is not what they are going for at this stage.
Still up to the physician to determine whether or not to carry out test postmortem so, has a bearing on whether or not death records of unconfirmed symptomatic patients are accurate.
Herd immunity is generally considered to require somewhere around 50% of the population to have been infected. At 20k infections, Sweden has seen around 0.2% of the population infected. Assuming the ACTUAL number of infected is higher, they are still so far off herd immunity.
To actually let the infection spread to the level where herd immunity is achieved, you are looking at hundreds of thousand people dead (at current ratio of deaths to infections).
It makes zero sense as a strategy.
I think the Swedish believe that a fairly high percentage of people have had it (the number of cases is a bogus number in almost every country)
They have had 4000 odd deaths and if the death rate is around 0.5% (which is the best estimate I have seen) that would imply 800k people have had it so not exactly a small number but a long way to go. If 50% of people need to get infected for herd immunity that would be 25k deaths at 0.5% so quite significant.
Sounds good, in theory.
But Sweden has 25,000 cases and 3,200 deaths, so far. That's nearly 13% mortality rate. There are 10 million Swedes, so if that rate hold sup 1,300,000 of them are going to die. (Even a projected 3% rate is 300,000 deaths)
For New Zealand that would be 650,000 deaths, and more importantly, perhaps it would equate to 45 million Americans!
No it’s rubbish. It only killed about 1% of the people that got it on that cruise ship and that was full of susceptible old people. So we know the death rate is less than 1%, not 13%.
Also that maths assumes everyone is going to get it which seems unlikely if only 25k have it so far (it must not be that contagious!)
Yes, but you are forgetting that all those people on that cruise ship had medical attention. If 5 million people get it in Sweden, there is no way they are all going to be able to get medical attention, they will overwhelm any response possible. Hence the number of dead get a lot higher.
Those are ludicrous calculations bw.
I know you want a total collapse of the Western economic system but come on!
90% of the deaths are people aged over 70 with the vast majority having serious co-morbidities. The Swedes tend to not go to rest homes until they are needing special care and are close to the end of their lives. The virus got into aged care homes accounting for a high death number there.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/sweden-coronavirus-chief-scientist-admi…
Tegnell said that the number of admissions to Sweden’s hospitals is “clearly falling,” as well as the number of deaths.
Sweden says it would do the same again. We all wont really know what was the best strategy until after a couple of years.
They are just....valid calculations based on realized results so far. Sweden does have 25,000 cases and 3,200 deaths, so far. Fact. Norway, next door with half the population, has 8000 cases and 220 deaths; a third the infection number and less the 1/5th the death rate. The calculations are as good and bad as any other.
But as you suggest "We all wont really know what was the best strategy until after a couple of years."
(Oh, and I don't want collapse of anything. A reassessment of how we live our lives? Yes. A recalibration of the value of non productive consumption items? Yes. But Collapse? Not particularly. But I have a strong suspicion - one is coming!)
They did a number of random area sample eg in Queenstown of 300 people, plus about 4 other places and NONE of them tested positive.
I actually think this might be a bad result as what it means is there no asymptomatic or recovered people in the population, so no natural herd immunity.
Also, the result of some deaths, more with symptoms and tested as positive but none others in random samples do not follow the pattern of transmission that other countries have overseas.
Thus the only way for us to get herd immunity is by vaccination. And we will have to stay in some type of lockdown until that happens.
The initial strategy by the Govt. was to fatten the curve to allow our hospitals to cope with the extra admissions, which meant infection happened in the general population in a controlled way over a longer time frame. A nuanced lockdown would be required like protection of the vulnerable eg rest homes.
Alert Level 2 would have done this If you look at the Govt. Risk Assessment profile for stage 2 which says:
'High risk of importing CV19 or increase in imported cases or increase in household transmission or single or isolated cluster outbreaks,' then we should have only ever been in Level 2.
Level 3 Risk Assessment says 'Community transmission occurring or Multiple cluster breakouts,' and Level 4 says, 'Sustained and intensive transmission, widespread outbreaks.'
For whatever reason Govt. did not follow there own Risk Assessment procedures before they initiating the Alert Levels.
Without serology studies in your target population all you're doing is measuring deaths to a number quoted as 'official infections' but that has more to do with testing capacity than actual numbers of infections. Serology measures actual rates of infection including asymptomatic cases which by all evidence are in the majority - the vast majority.
Please take the time to read the Santa Clara County study
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2
Great article. real infections were 54x the known cases. So if we assume that is also true in Sweden and divide the numbers above by 50 and then by another 2 on the assumption that not everyone would even get it NZ would be down to 6500 deaths. Still a large number but not massive increase in the 33k deaths we have in a normal year. .
Have another one
https://www.rt.com/usa/486695-ny-antibodies-cuomo-virus-fatality/
the stats are pretty useless to compare at this moment -- teh UK has hardly tested anyone -- hence a really high mortality rate -- i have a midwife friend who tested positive but daughter and partner who live with her in small house -- not tested - minimal symptoms but some -- and both kept working one running a gym! even here -- we have 1490 cases and 20 deaths -- about 1.3% but if rosewood had not had an infection -- it would be 1460 cases and 10 deaths - or .65% a 100% change in our stats from stopping one case turning into a rest home cluster
if the mortality rate was 13% of all cases - with a flu that potentially could infect 80% + of the population over time -- we are talking just under a BILLION deaths! No most of teh evidence in countries with high testing rates are about 1% mortality focused on teh obese/ elderly /chronic health conditions -
Jesus. I can't bear the blind ignorance any longer.
Please go educate yourself of the difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).
In most European countries a Case is only confirmed if you are tested when hospitalized. The real number of Infections is orders of magnitudes higher.
The infection fatality rate of this virus is now known to be in the ballpark of 0.5% and likely even lower.
Serological surveys are showing that Stockholm is well on track to reach herd immunity in the very near future.
The Swedes took a measured approach to slow the virus but let it run its inevitable couse without kneecapping their economy and society.
I have no doubt that history will look favourably on them not losing their minds.
Here is some cold, but realistic maths. Population: 10.5 million. 60% get infected before herd immunity. 0.5% of those die (30k deaths worst case.
For New Zealand we were looking at around 15000 deaths worst case. Mostly geriatrics at heaven's waiting room anyway.
Slowing the virus to not overwhelm the health system is laudable. Crippling our economies for decades with all the resulting social carnage resulting from that is going to be one of the great follies of the 21st century.
I'm looking forward to watching the mental gymnastics when this becomes clear in the coming months.
Jacinda "reducing child poverty" Ardern and her spin doctors will have their work cut out justifying what they have done.
When we enter L2 there will be a HUGE retail uplift. Even with physical restrictions, going to a cafe will be like heaven for a lot of people. And there are plenty of purchases waiting to happen. The pent up demand is there because a lot of retail shops have not got their act together, collect and collect too awkward, and delivery OMG don't get me started. It's going to be busy
Not sure it will be 'Huge'. I think there will be a very decent uplift, which won't be sustained.
I like going to cafes but I won't go as much now. Too many cafes have ordinary food and/or coffee. Bugger paying for that.
Of course, I have a couple of favourites that are top notch and I will be back there. But probably less often.
Also want to get to Barkers as I am old school and like to try on clothes. But I might wait to Queens Birthday when there is likely to be sales.
I am well stocked on clothes but there's one shirt I'd like to get. Then I am pretty much right for the rest of the year.
If I am to use one of those big stores it will always be Mitre 10, NZ owned whereas Bunnings is Australian owned. Likewise with supermarkets - New World or PaknSave for me, Countdown only if I cannot avoid it. Local vege shop, the best in NZ IMHO for that.
Same for me with anything that carried the Goodman Fielder label, but that is because it is owned by Wilmar, the world's largest palm oil processor, so no Edmonds products, Vogels, Molenburg, Meadow Fresh etc for me, there are a lot more products, read the label if this resonates.
Correct. But combine those who have lost jobs and those on significantly reduced incomes and that is a significant chunk of the workforce, maybe at least 30-40%.
And factor in maybe another 10-20% of the workforce are OK for now but may have uncertainty ahead of them.
Wall heaters for one thing, quite a few of them. Replaced a washing line and had it installed but getting it from M10 was not easy, I've given up dealing with bunnings even though they are my most frequented shop. The M10 staff told me they had only half the number from normal working the floor and taking orders. And you?
Nothing, actually!
Not because it suits the arguments that there may not be the huge buy-up that is hoped for (who knows, though! There's always than next "Briscoes Sale!' that brings their goods down to nearly the same regular price as everyone else!) but because I just don't need anything new. Mrs. W is a better chef than most in any café/restaurant I'd go to; Netflix beats jostling with the crowds at some regimented venue; the cars aren't due for replacement until EV's give us more choice; clothing wardrobes are full! and having been to any other place on the planet that I'd want to, just staying put suits me fine.
So really, nothing.
BW agree.
I think a lot will be avoiding dining experiences. Knowing that at the back of the shop some spotty faced chef just back from the bog is artfully pushing your food around the plate with their bare hands like they do on the cooking shows will be enough for a lot to go home to the beans and toast for a while.
a tiny relief based burst that will peter out as fast as a ballon empties air --- replaced by a massive tightening of belts from all those unemplyed, or reduced hours with no overtime - two income households now one -- paranoid consumers avoiding shops -- people who have seen their bank balances shoot up from one month of enforced savings thinking -- ooo if i do this for another couple of months -- othere putting 3 montsh money away for the next rainy day ..... dont get me started -- going to be DIRE
only idiots queued at 4.00am for a Mcdonalds or KFC -- have the people who did do takeaway rejectd it as the grease reacted badly after 5 weeks of proper home cooked food! -- nope -- any uplift will be very very shortlived
The much faster increases are coming in four key countries, Russia, Brazil, India and Peru.
To date, a total of 187,859 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 26,608 patients having recovered from the virus. Russia’s latest data indicates 1,723 fatalities nationwide. Link
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52594023
Poms bringing in 14 day quarantine for travellers - at the end of the month. Say what? End of the friggin month??? . ..and they are expected to self isolate.....
How are they any cleverer than their special friends Bubba and Billy Bobs across the water?
I suspect theres a touch of herd immunity thinking still lingering at Whitehall. Hope it works out for them even though its unproven you have immunity after recovering.
For those looking for the CCP to save us... I wish I could write so well. This from the Telegraph-
Whether we like it or not, we are in a twilight war with China whose aim is to supplant 200 years of western dominance in revenge for the humiliation they believe has been wreaked upon the Han people. As this article shows, they will stop at nothing: they have a plan and they are going to carry it through come what may.
Our politicians need to wake up to the dangers we face. They need to reorientate our sense of direction and to start the process of decoupling from the Chinese dominance that is beginning to overtake us. As the pandemic has shown, our lack of manufacturing resilience and supply line reliability is going to be a source of great vulnerability and weakness when faced with an implacable enemy.
Already, the Chinese government has threatened the EU (who have caved in), Australia (who have shown a firm resolve) and are making bellicose noises towards the Americans (who are not going to lie down in face of the damage done to their economy). So the question has to be asked, What will happen in future years if we are even more reliant on the Chinese and they begin to apply political pressure?
The answer is, as we move away from the EU, to pivot towards the Anglosphere where we have a shared language, legal framework and common cultural mores. Already we have a shared security network in Five Eyes and we need to extend this in terms of trade, supply and manufacturing capacity. A long and arduous journey lies ahead that will require political determination on an epic scale.
If our politicians do not address these demanding questions, on which our security depends, they will reap the contempt and eventually, the fury of the electorate.
If we hadn't let our gap between rich and poor get so big then it would be that simple Brock. As it stands our lower class deserve a small semblance of self respect and ability to buy goods that make their working lives functional and to have a few hours of of enjoyment in a week. Which means buying Chinese or from another country where labour rates are close to slave labour.
It is a luxury of the rich to afford to pay someone in a western country to build their washing machine or make their shoes / clothes.
The new normal.
South Korea shuts down 2,100 nightclubs and hostess bars after new coronavirus spike is blamed on clubbers who went out last weekend as soon as country relaxed lockdown rules
A 29-year-old man tested positive for coronavirus after visiting three clubs in the Itaewon district of Seoul, South Korea, last Saturday. He has been linked to all but one of 18 new cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8303227/amp/South-Korea-shuts-…
The number of infections could grow as health workers are scrambling to trace contacts of club goers. Park said health workers have been attempting to contact some 1,940 people who were listed as visitors to the three Itaewon clubs and other venues nearby, but they have so far been able to reach only 637 of them.
Last night. Contact tracing. From health minister.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121462745/coronavirus…
It appears the capacity [185] to manage new daily cases hasn't improved in the three weeks since, though there have not been high Covid-19 case numbers requiring greater capacity.
Seems 185 per day (the April 23rd number).
Ash wanted 300 to 500,
the Audit report said 1,000 per day.
March 17th they could do 10.
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