Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news most economies continue to struggle with economic responses to sharp drops in consumer demand. The Americans just can't seem to get on top of their emergency, with confused policymaking.
In the US, mortgage applications are rising sharply, but mortgage approvals aren't as banks get very wary about borrower risk.
American producer prices fell by -1.3 in April from March, the most in more than a decade and the largest year-on-year decline in almost five years. Depressed demand is creating deflationary conditions, ones that might last for a while yet. And unusually, these pressures apply to both goods and services.
And in a widely watched speech today, the Fed chairman said Congress and the White House will need to spend much more to push back on the coronavirus-induced economic contraction. Wall Street turned glum, mainly because he didn't embrace negative interest rates.
And it's not as though the Fed isn't pulling its weight. But huge financial market injections (and here) are not going to be enough on their own.
In China, the absolute amount of non-performing bank loans has hit a record high with a sharp jump. But that jump is only as fast as new lending, so the non-performing loan ratios have remained stable.
The Japanese government has decided to inject cash directly into both large and mid-size companies that are struggling in the face of the pandemic, adding to low-interest loans and subsidies already in place. The battle to save the commercial sector is desperate there now. It also comes with some irony, because some large Japanese companies are famous for their huge cash reserves and presumably they will not be recipients in this latest move.
In Australia, there was a surprising bounce in consumer sentiment in the latest WestpacMI survey. But the level is still very negative.
The uncertainty is also revealed in bank scenarios where CBA says that house price declines of up to a third by the end of next year are one possibility.
On Wall Street, markets have taken fright today with the S&P500 down -2.2% so far. Overnight Europe fell harder. Yesterday, key Asian markets were flat while the ASX200 ended up marginally and the NZX50 was down marginally.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 4,313,000 and up +84,000 from this time yesterday which is similar level of increase.
Now, just on 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +24,000 since this time yesterday to 1,380,000. This is a slightly higher rate of increase. US deaths are now exceed 83,000. Global deaths now exceed 295,000. The situation in each of Russia, Brazil and India is getting worse. And the UK is still reporting as many daily new cases as India is. Both only report cases that present to a hospital.
The reports of an uptick in cases in Wuhan can be overstated because the numbers are tiny - just a handful - but the local authorities there are not taking any chances, deciding to test all 11 mln citizens of the city.
In Australia, there are now 6975 cases (+9 since yesterday), 98 deaths (+1) and an unchanged recovery rate of just under 90%. 50 people are in hospital there (+3) with 17 in ICU (+1). There are now 704 active cases in Australia (-31).
There are 1497 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with no new cases again yesterday, and the same as the prior day. Twenty-one people have died (unchanged). There are still only two people left in hospital with the disease (unchanged), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just under 94% with 95 people known to be infected (-12) and 73 of those are in 12 active clusters. That means 22 other cases are recovering in self isolation in the community (-1 from yesterday).
The UST 10yr yield is lower to just on 0.65% and a -3 bps repeat retreat. Their 2-10 curve is little-changed at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is marginally flatter at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is unchanged +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 0.93%. The China Govt 10yr is up +2 bps at 2.68%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is very sharply lower after yesterday's RBNZ MPS, down -11 bps to only 0.49%.
Gold is firmer again today, up another +US$10 to US$1,711/oz.
Oil prices are slightly lower today. The US crude price is down by about -50c/bbl to just over US$25/bbl. The international oil price is down slightly more to just over US$29/bbl. OPEC has slashed its forecast for global oil demand.
The Kiwi dollar is also a weaker this morning, down almost -1c to just under 60 USc. The weakness is across the board. On the cross rates we are down a full -1c to 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down more than -½c to 55.4 euro cents. These overall drops mean the TWI-5 is now 66 which in turn means the RBNZ actions yesterday devalued the Kiwi dollar -1.5% in a day, and it is now down more than -8% since the start of the year.
Bitcoin is higher today however, up another +1.7% to US$9,070. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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