Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news it's all about the jobs crisis today.
American jobless claims came in at almost +3 mln last week, a small decrease from the previous week but +20% more than was expected. And the prior week was revised higher. That means in the past eight weeks, 36 mln people have applied for benefits or 23% of those employed at the start of March. The unemployment rate in households earning less than US$40,000 per year (NZ$67,000), is now running at 40%.
A second wave of layoffs in the US is underway, according to early anecdotal reports.
And a new Fed survey taken in March and before the fierce bite of layoffs started showed that a quarter of all adults have had their pay cut. The level will be much higher in April and May. Nowhere else in the world has seen a disaster anything like this.
China's inbound investment is rising again after a brief reduction. It rose almost +9% in April from the same month a year ago after falls in February and March.
China said it is likely to increase its government deficit to about 3.5% of GDP, a rise from 2.8% in 2019. This will allow it to "invest" a vast US$100 bln in additional spending on top of the US$1.3 tln it already plans to spend more than it takes in revenues. Like the US, China is another major debt hog. But unlike the US, it runs external surpluses.
And China purchased about three quarters of Brazil's soybean exports, effectively freezing out the US. It is also a trade that monetises rainforest clearing.
Japanese machine tool orders fell almost -50% in April on a year-on-year basis and are now at their lowest level in more than ten years.
Things aren't happy employment-wise in Australia either. Their unemployment rate jumped to 6.3% in April, with -580,000 jobs lost during the month and a net -400,000 few jobs in April than the same month a year ago. It was the biggest monthly fall in employment since records started being kept in 1978. It the same year, their labour force actually shrank as their participation rate slumped to just 63.7% as the crisis discouraged hundreds of thousands of people of employment age. Of those wanting work, there are now 832,000 people looking for full or part-time work.
But not everyone is hurting in Australia. Google saw its ad revenues rise +16% in the past year and made a local profit of over AU$1.2 bln. But through 'clever' tax maneuvering, it chose to pay just $100 mln in tax there (8%), and left local publishers on the brink of collapse. Facebook would have been similar.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 4,406,000 and up +93,000 from this time yesterday which is higher level of increase.
Now, just on 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +21,000 since this time yesterday to 1,401,000. This is a slightly lower rate of increase. US deaths are now exceed 85,000. Global deaths now exceed 300,000. Both Canada and Mexico are struggling with containment although not to the same extent as the US. The situations in Russia, the UK, Brazil, India and Peru are all worsening.
In Australia, there are now 6989 cases (+14 since yesterday), 98 deaths (unchanged) and an unchanged recovery rate of just on 90%. 50 people are in hospital there (+1) with 18 in ICU (+1). There are now 688 active cases in Australia (-16).
Another zero day yesterday in New Zealand, the third in a row. There are still 1497 Covid-19 cases here. Twenty-one people have died (unchanged). There are still only two people left in hospital with the disease (unchanged), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just over 94% with 86 people known to be infected (-9) and 68 of those are in 12 clusters. That means 18 other cases are recovering in self isolation in the community (-4 from yesterday).
The UST 10yr yield is lower to just under 0.62% and a third consecutive -3 bps retreat. Their 2-10 curve is little-changed at +47 bps. Their 1-5 curve is marginally flatter at +14 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter +53 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -4 bps to 0.89%. The China Govt 10yr is up +3 bps at 2.71%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is sharply higher, retracting the RBNZ MPS induced fall, up +18 bps to 0.67%.
Gold is firmer again today, up another +US$17 to US$1,728/oz.
Oil prices are higher today. The US crude price is up by about +US$2/bbl to just over US$27/bbl. The international oil price is up a similar amount to just under US$31/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is softer this morning and now just under 59.7 USc. On the cross rates we are little-changed at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 55.3 euro cents. These shifts mean the TWI-5 is now 65.9.
Bitcoin is higher today however, up another +5.9% to US$9,607. In fact, that continues its rather extreme volatility in May, moving +/-6% during the month a number of times. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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130 Comments
They are intent on lowering the purchasing power of our money. To them, savers are parasites, bureaucrats (and to a lesser extent, their captured politicians) are wise. Anyway, that's one way of looking at it, looking for someone to blame. Which only makes things worse as we fight amongst ourselves.
More practically, what to do? They are flooding the world with new currency units and they will not stop until things stop falling apart. What happens then? My guess is years of stagflation, seventies style. So food prices go up, and up and up, year after year. Wages stay flat, year after year, but food as a % of household spending goes up. This, plus high levels of unemployment, causes house prices to stagnate and decline relative to food prices. That's food and shelter covered, which leaves clothing, where there will be bargains galore as the excess stock from the days of peak retail are flogged off cheap.
"'they' are trying to destroy the value of money"
they are, but as below they have no choice
Debt/Credit pulls the economy forward … otherwise it stalls
The problem being that inflating away old debts only works if simultaneously you can raise incomes
Otherwise the economy heads into a death zone of too few viable customers ...
We need to watch bank reserves. If they are going up then they are just keeping the QE on their books and the money remains hypothetical. It isn't in circulation or available to the economy to businesses or individuals. It's bank lending that puts money into the economy not central bank printing, other than when governments give money directly to the people in welfare and loans (which they are having to do because banks aren't lending in the way they want them to). The government debt spending isn't going to be inflationary because it isn't enough. It might be enough to prevent a really bad deflationary cycle, but it is nowhere near enough to trigger any inflation.
The risk of inflation will be later. When the banks see recovery in the economy, they will have fat reserves and start to feel confident about lending. We may then get more of the same (asset inflation and weak trickle down "wealth effect and more stagnant wage growth) or regulations/politics might have changed or maybe even some huge structural change. Just watch the bank reserves and then watch the money supply in the actual economy.
Exactly. This is the bit people worrying about insta-inflation don't seem to get. You can have ZIRP and still have velocity of money dropping like a rock if banks don't want to lend, people don't want to borrow, or both. I'd say we're heading for both once the full extent of damage to balance sheets becomes clear. This is what happened in Japan: people kept paying off debt even when borrowing was virtually free.
Yes and debt is built on future expectations. So people's expectations propel the creation of money. Store or claim of value, whatever that might be, is never anything more than future expectation of that store/claim of wealth, so it is dependent on confidence/sentiment. If there is confidence about NZ, NZD goes up, if there is confidence about gold, gold goes up. Guess what happens to cryptos? All that is required for any currency or store of value is belief.
For a very long time, store of value was just something that was easily transportable, agreed by most as valuable. Salt, gold etc. They had some inherent value but quickly coins became more about the confidence in the government or empire that minted them. When you get to modern market floating fiat money, it's entirely about confidence in the government that issues the currency. Which is mostly fine and people have tended to have faith in their governments. However, over the last few decades, we have seen increasing inequality and increasing lack of trust in governments, Cryptos are decentralised, their main appeal is that they are outside of government control. Unless suddenly, sentiment changes and faith in governments and the financial system is returned, or governments outlaw cryptos (they have not so far) then cryptos remain a valid store of value. A cypto is a vote of no-confidence in the existing government/centralbank/finance system.
"Cryptos are decentralised, their main appeal is that they are outside of government control."
Indeed
I think you'll find its hard to exist for long outside the reaches of the govt of the country you reside in...
they might want their pound of flesh for all those services taken for granted….
Absolutely, but its been 11 years and so far, nothing. All that governments have really signalled so far, is the tax treatment of cryptos. Taxing cryptos legitimises them, if anything. It's how they are taking their pound of flesh. You can't pay your taxes in gold and you can't pay your taxes in cryptos either, but for as long as anyone is prepared to buy and sell them, they will remain hard currencies and a valid store/claim of wealth.
I know you hate cryptos Ham and Eggs but I don't understand why you deny they have any legitimacy as a store of wealth. Cryptos are volatile and they will probably remain so for decades. Most people do not understand blockchain or the inflation hedges built within the difficulty system or the growth limits on the system. Cryptos are also just as prone to bubbles and price fluctuations as gold or any other store/claim of value. But you don't see investors refusing to hold gold because some days it is worth more than others?! I understand your point that gold is a physical thing. Back in the mists of time, people started mining and they found a yellow shiny metal. Back then, people worshipped the sun as the primary life giving force, they anthropomorphised it, created epic deity story cycles around it and yes, invested the yellow shiny metal that reminded them of the sun, with a mythic property that became wealth. And yes, that has been the case for millennia. But it was all still based on belief and scarcity! Prior to gold there were other stores of wealth and debt but at some point enough people changed their minds.
Cryptos share both these features with gold and there are many overlaps. Cryptos have to be mined, they require energy, investment and labour to manifest (much like gold). However, instead of digging about in the ground, cryptos are created via the solving of mathematical formula via computing power. If you can't rationalise why computing power could be the modern age equivalent potential indicator of value then I don't know what to tell you!!! Add into that the narrative of cryptos...they have been built outside the modern banking system by heretics and renogades who distrust modern governments and banking, but yet have been incorporated by the modern banking system whilst remaining outside of their purview.
My hubs became very interested in cryptos a decade ago. It was fun, super geeky and there was a whole geek counter-subculture around it. We're not stupid, we never spent any more on it than we would be prepared to lose. Same as gold. It's only ever a percentage of an investment portfolio but to deny that is has value as a hedge against the collapse of the modern banking system is without material evidence. Gold is similarly a vote of no confidence in the modern banking system, but still more institutionalised and therefore doesn't have quite the counter-culture allure. You can dismiss counter-culture movements all you like, but history is a lesson in the success of counter-culture movements. Mithras didn't make it into modern times, but Christianity sure did! Human belief is unpredictable.
Money comes as "legal tender"
PMs price goes up and down against legal tender but you always have your physical item (except if you are fool enough to go ETF)
Cryptos go up and down against legal tender but what do you actually have a digital wallet backed by the belief of other members of that particular crypto church
Will the faithful of the church of crypto still believe it (i.e. will their part with their actual belongings (e.g. their time to do something for you) inexchange of a crypto) if fiat has failed? As importantly, will the non-believers be willing to depart with their goods and services for crypto?
When the European traded their junks for Native American golds they though them mugs. Centuries later, the European where giving the Native Americas gold to buy their billing. So difficult to foresee what is off value in the eyes of people
Because people might think that closed bars countrywide with only 65 active cases might be a bit much. People also might think that warrantless searches of a premises and forced medical examination passed into legislation might also be a bit much, and a bit un-human rightsy.
Better hope we find a cure otherwise NZ bubble will be very longterm
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-who-warns-it-could-take-up-…
yep it is looking like virus will just become part of normal day life, much like the flu. NZ will need to tackle the reality of this at some stage and put the toe into the hot water unfortunately. We can't remain isolated forever, while the rest of the world gets on with it. If the virus floats away or becomes less aggressive that's great, if not, then i suspect it will only ever be the healthy/young that travel and the ones with a medical certificate.
I read an article yesterday that although Italy had a large outbreak, random testing is showing only 5% of the population has antibodies (11% in the worst affected area).
If you need 70% for herd immunity it seems like other countries are going to be subject to repeated waves of infection and lockdowns.
If the worst happens and we do have to open up and accept the consequences, at least we will likely be doing it at a time when the disease is far better understood, treatment regimes are well defined, and the required drugs and associated equipment will not be in such short supply. We would do better than other countries by learning from their experience.
My Friday book or two
'Witness'
https://www.amazon.com/Witness-Cold-Classics-Whittaker-Chambers-ebook/d…
and this, ' The Reason Why'
https://www.amazon.com/Reason-Why-Story-Charge-Brigade/dp/0140012788/re…
The author of this replied to a comment of a friend on facebook, so I ordered it from him.
http://gulfjournal.org.nz/article/a-lighthouse-keepers-cookbook/
Google revenue and tax and other actions in Australia points to one of the significant issues of globalisation for them and us. These companies need to contribute more. I get that the "clever tax manoeuvring" will be legal but that is a part of the problem - too many tax loop holes that allow scams to take place, allowing big companies to avoid tax.
The lack of action on Google and Facebook tax-wise has been a festering sore for over 10 years. 135 counties have been struggling to establish a standardised approach for 10 years without progress. Meantime these 2 companies have grown fat on tax avoidance
France has done a spastic and gone on its own. To hell with the procrastination
The lack of action on tax avoidance has amounted to a straight-out subsidy to Google and Facebook viz-a-viz the conventional news media outfits who are dying and now going cap-in-hand to the Government.
The other problem is the total disregard for intellectual property by way of news aggregation by Google and Facebook who simply pillage the stuff without paying for it.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/we-have-much-more-do-nz-fra…
""New Zealand and France are today celebrating the one year anniversary of the Christchurch Call, working together to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.""
Time we became francophiles - I love Google and tolerate Facebook but they should pay tax where they earn income. Force it through now while Trump is distracted.
Not just them...other major tech suppliers based out of the states have their local NZ units tax headquartered in Bermuda and similar locations. One might ask whether when they are generating so much in cloud licensing revenue they should be contributing a little more to the society paying them.
It's actually cattle that are being farmed on ex rainforest. Brazil's herd has grown into the biggest in the world up 10x in 20 years. Brazil is the world's biggest potential agriculture disruptor nation.
My farming friends in the States were shipping bulk beans to China after Trumps ag agreement, but the Virus shut them down, my friends have managed to move all their Soybeans. So China definitely moved some USA beans.
They still have some corn in silos. Widespread frosts last week hurt, many are having to re sow, got down as low as 10º F or bloody cold. South is now very dry. Not much money being made in farming USA at the moment.
I see very strong farm sales in Aussie now drought has broken, perhaps they know something we don't or perhaps farmers are back to paying as much for land as banks will lend them?
Good news for climate change hand wringers - CO2 global greening effect now thought to be significantly larger than originally predicted. NZ at the high end of the scale (Fig 5a). Must be the Shane Jones effect.
"Adjusting to include only biophysical effects (CO2 and climate‐driven sink), we estimate a cumulative biophysical sink of 174 PgC equivalent to 17 years of anthropogenic CO2 emissions at current rates."
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.14950
Week 8 of the US labour market collapse
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/14/week-8-of-the-collapse-of-the-u-s-lab…
I dont see NZ or Australia being any different. Things just a bit distorted with the wage subsidy/jobkeeper grant.
Its the death of the disposable income market because people dont have any to dispose of. The lucky ones that do all of a sudden have the urge to pay off debt or save for a rainy day.
Yes I was in the US during the GFC and have to say that employers over there (at least in my experience) are far more ruthless than what I've witnessed here so far. In 2008/09, the large company I was dealing with, basically said to staff that if you want to keep your job we're going to 60hr work weeks minimum across the board. Don't like it? There's the door. House prices were falling. Mortgages needed to be paid. Nobody was hiring so if you leave you're unemployed. It basically turned into a nightmare - modern day slavery and of white working class people! Nobody quit, but many ended up taking sleeping bags to work and living in their offices during the weeks. One guy in his 60's died of a heart attack due to stress.
Wrong. Negative rates hurt the banks and hence worsen the financing conditions & reduce demand. More banks giving up. Hundreds have disappeared under ECB. The ECB knows this, so now you know how dishonest they are. 20 years of consistently disastrous monetary policy from the ECB. Link
Why's nobody questioning whether it's a good idea for the bank regulator to start competing with the regulated? The conflict of interest will bias monetary policy to become anti-bank (eg interest rate policy to hurt bank profits, zero/neg. rates) & distorts competition #antitrust Link
To me, this has been a bit like the referee of a sports match deciding that he/she doesn't like the score line so is grabbing the ball every now and then from the players to make sure the ball keeps going into the net at one end of the field not the other, because they made a bet before the game started (i.e. they own assets).
Why don't we just get rid of the regulated banks all together? Seems that they are just a deadweight loss to the effective supply of money as the central banks set the price of money and the regulated banks pay staff massive amounts in wages to provide an intermediary service of what? Setting margins?
Why don't we just get rid of the regulated banks all together? Seems that they are just a deadweight loss to the effective supply of money as the central banks set the price of money...?
Do you really think that? I believe central banks just follow market rates down generally set by bank traders due to a failure of central bank monetray policy.
There are claims inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.
Central banks can only create currency in circulation into the publicly accessible banking system - around $7.972 billion, whereas banks currently inject around $480.0 billion credit into the same system.
And therein lies the problem Audaxes; The difference between credit and money. I wrote this on the article about MMT last week "So credit is not money. But that raises a point that is most concerning. If the trading banks are creating credit, in the most common case to fund a property bubble that threatens the entire economy, that credit must still be paid off and this must be done with money, because in effect credit = debt. So the central bank is busy creating money for the economy, but the trading (private) banks are busy vacuuming it up from the economy as profits to go overseas to their parents. Why is this being allowed? Are those who refuse to regulate it corrupt, complicit or wilfully ignorant?"
The end result the trading banks can only stand to profit from the current scenario. they don't even have to do much!
If the trading banks are creating credit, in the most common case to fund a property bubble that threatens the entire economy, that credit must still be paid off and this must be done with money, because in effect credit = debt.
Absolutely not - it's paid off by those spending the deposits created by bank lending (credit) Eftpos is fungible with bank notes. As I noted above the creation of RBNZ currency in circulation is tiny.
Haven't you just said the same thing I said using different words? Banks create credit and issue it as loans. In effect they are converting that credit to money for the borrower to use, and when the borrower uses it, it must be repaid with money. This is how they funded the property bubble. There is no point for a bank to create credit unless to issue it as a loan, therefore that credit created by a bank will translate into debt for a borrower.
The money the government pumps (deficit spending) into the economy comes from taxes and investors swapping their bank created savings (deposits) to the government in exchange for NZ government debt.
The RBNZ QE operations buy the bonds from investors via banks which park the proceeds on the RBNZ's liability ledger offsetting the asset ledger comprising the bought bonds. Apparently this spurs lower than already low interest rates and economic activity which is hard to discern in other nations which undertake this process.
One could conclude the government is crowding out private sector investment.
Mainly because new bank created credit is not necessarily injected into the economy because willing creditworthy borrowers are in short supply.
But that's the irony, By next election if Trump doesn't do anything to bring employment levels back to even near where they were, how can he expect to be elected? Voters won't be willing to listen to his excuses in six months time. Not only that but most of his unhealthy voter base will be dead from the coronavirus come November. When you look at the US jobless charts it's quite staggering. BBC One in four US workers claiming jobless benefits.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52664929
Exactly, they understand just how corrupt US politics is. Like the EU we drink the Democrat Kool-aid, but they are actually more corrupt than the traditional Republicans, which is saying a lot. Both oligarchic collectivists. Trump was the only independent who actually listened to the masses. The Democrats and Republicans just look down on ordinary people and use them as slave labour and cannon fodder. There are a lot of broken people there, the product of endless foreign wars which enrich the entitled classes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_and_Practice_of_Oligarchical_C…
"Yet in the past week documents have come to light that cast Mr Trump’s predecessor in a very different light. They provide the strongest evidence yet that members of the Obama administration promoted the idea that Trump’s campaign had colluded with Moscow and that they used the federal government to investigate and prosecute key figures around Mr Trump, even as they acknowledged under oath that they had no evidence to support their case.
...James Clapper, Mr Obama’s director of national intelligence, told CNN in 2017, “He [Vladimir Putin] knows how to handle an asset, and that’s what he’s doing with the president.”
But recently published transcripts show that, at around this time, Mr Clapper told Congress in secret and under oath that he “never saw any direct empirical evidence that the Trump campaign or someone in it was plotting [or] conspiring with the Russians to meddle with the election.” Several other Obama aides said the same thing."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/obamas-halo-is-looking-tarni…
Depends who you talk to I guess. My relatives and friends who live in the US all despise Trump and won't vote for him in a million years, but then again they're all educated and have managed to retain their companies and employment. I wonder what will happen to Trumps unemployed and poor worker voter base when the run out of wage subsidies and food stamps? That's if they're still alive of course come November.
If you are a Democrat or a Republican you do not deviate are regardless of the consequences. This was told to me from our family members in Iowa. They are Democrats but carnt believe the amount of people in the state that love Trump. I guess when you have Sleepy Joe as an alternative it makes sense as his memory laxity and interviews are becoming tiresome as the days roll on. He may suffer a health issue like Hillary did in 2017, if so it could be all over for him. I carn't really understand why these elderly politicians want to get into this power game when their best efforts are way behind them.
I enjoyed that series - here it is for those interested. Obviously other podcast listening methods exist, this one just won the google rankings.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-it-could-happen-here-30717896/
Yes, the Democrats at the time were the party of States Rights, including slavery. Lincoln was a mass murdering Republican tyrant, backing the industrial North against the agrarian South. He started the civil war. How messed up is that? Why did they need to have a civil war in order to get rid of slavery? Britain abolished slavery throughout their worldwide empire in 1838, I think, without bloodshed. The slave owners in the South were up to their necks in bank debt to the Northern bankers and the slaves were chattels, so also part of the mortgage. If the South had freed the slaves, then Britain would have supplied them with the artillery and Naval support they needed. What a mess.
You should really watch this film if you want to get a full perspective on the US modern day slavery: 13TH | official trailer (2016) Netflix. 13TH refers to the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which reads “Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States.” The progression from that second qualifying clause to the horrors of mass criminalization and the sprawling American prison industry.
Trailer link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6IXQbXPO3I
That "involuntary servitude"bit - does take a minimum wage or starve on the street qualify? When discussing "involuntary", there are many ways coercion can be dressed up in pretty clothes and makeup, but no matter how you look at it is still lip stick on a pig! In the US as well as NZ!
Not yet No.
Edit; just watched the trailer and i am already aware of how the African Americans are treated and have been and I am appalled and disgusted. Despite their laws the corruption that is endemic through their society including their religions to perpetuate a travesty on members of their own population is no less than shameful. But the problem is not limited to American corruption and the way they treat their own. As I indicated, that 'Involuntary Servitude" bit can easily be seen an many parts of our society even here in NZ where a lack of choice, or having to face only unpalatable choices essentially creates the same outcome.
I honestly don't have a clue how to solve this problem. I just watched a blow up on facebook, black african friend went out on a limb after a young black guy was killed by police, he called it racist.
Not many of my friends agreed with him, %4 of young black men cause an unbelievable amount of crime in the USA. This young black man turned out to have a list of violent crime as long as your arm.
The imprisonment of young men due to minor drug charges is madness. Private prisons with guarantees from the State to run a high occupancy is madness. Unemployment amongst black americans is high, yet other migrants turning up in USA have done well starting from nothing. If nothing else it's a very complex issue.
Part of the problem there is that slavery was a national activity of the time. Many of the Yankee aristocracy were also slave owners. The only reason slavery came into the picture was because the northern armies were running out of bodies to throw into the meat grinder of military combat of the time, so Lincoln offered slaves their freedom if they volunteered to fight for the North. Some choice, but a lot took it.
Slavery was the national activity everywhere in the past. The Brits transported slaves taken by Africans, traded by Arabs from Africa to America and the Caribbean. But they were not alone, Maori took slaves, the Chinese had slaves, in the bible they took slaves, the Aztecs and Mayans had slaves, the Roman empire was built on slaves - everybody had slaves until it became cheaper to use steam power than human power. But to give credit where it is due the Brits did eventually abolish it and later on use their navy to enforce it and the underlying cause of the American civil war according to modern historians was slavery not states rights. "618,222 men died in the Civil War by far the greatest toll of any war in American history".
Mr Hill closes shops
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
Add these to Bunnings closures and you can see the result of a simple lock down being a down Hill battle. It was not the Virus that took all the money. This has been trending for some time.
If you do not get paid and Savers are plundered, where does the money keep coming from.
A politicians Pocket Book on "Business as Usual??" is not the answer.
They do not have a clue. Never have, never will.
They only know how to "Spend" munny, not make money.......Work.
One of the problems with socialist economic theories is that they assume wealth. When they talk about wealth it's like it is a cake that falls from the heavens and that the only real discussion worth having is who should get what sized piece.
Eventually through a combination of neglect and direct attack the cake producers die away and then the money runs out.
A Truth That’s Told With Bad Intent
https://www.epsilontheory.com/a-truth-thats-told-with-bad-intent/?utm_c…
No wonder National was against the Lockdown as their masters seating in China were not in favour of it - reflects their role in National party policies.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/coronavirus-winston-pet…
What a load of rubbish, national wanted the lock down and was in favour of it.
If anything Labour were 2-3 week late in doing the lock down and didn't do it correctly to start with, giving people a bit of paper saying they should self isolate.
China and the WHO are the ones saying don't stop travel.
I'm just doing consent to farm papers for Regional council. I will probably stay but it's making me a bit wobbly about a long term future. This should have been dealt with by central Govt but the skills are not there or if they are it's with someone buried out back.
I think this will start to impact all farmers, I have requirements like 'a permanent facility for stock crossing ( bridges), for all streams on formed races.'
I don't know how it's going to look, I need to start reading Orwell again.
The really sad thing is they are not dealing with the polluters, Nitrates in bores are exceeding limits by up to double and that,s going to get worse.
It's intensive farming on light free draining soils with irrigation where the devil is hiding.
Also the isolation is not much fun as we are getting older. If international travel is out for any length of time then I may reconsider and live part time in a city. If we do sell the farm, what do I do with the money? it's mearly worthless in the bank.
Did you read this link I put up?
https://www.takimag.com/article/swedens-gambit/
An angle to take a look at.
I heard that in the States that people are looking for 'bugout properties where they could go and hangout and be self sufficient. Grow their own veg, a few animals areound. Basically an English allotment on steroids. Only just heard that so I haven't put much thought into it. There could be a few hoops to jump through Council regulations wise but there is usually a way arround tham.
Plant up native trees, create a platform that a tiny house could sit or have a 'shed' there. Maybe a glass house sunk into the ground for winter veg. Lease the areas out, only for sort term stays or holiday periods.
They could have stock that you tend to and you could graze their properties at the same time.
Just looking at a property half an hour from Dunners 20 hectares. Thinking I could have a weekend retreat of 10 hectares and pop five little areas in for lease.
Just an idea at present.
Councils are funny things.
A few years ago, I purchased a portion of the neighbors section and tried to subdivide adding it to my section. No dice on three laws, they said. I trotted off with the paper work that relates to this. I read the rules over and over again finding a solution one by one and and confirming it with the duty planner.
A further three trips to the Council and we had a deal.
They ended up scratching the fee for the building consents, resource consents and the parks and reserves contribution and I got an extra section in.
Start a religion and that property is a communal spiritual zone. You only need 5 people to start a religion. Gloriavaile is an example.
AndrewJ ..etc....Thanks for the info and the Link.
I understand the thinking, All I have is money in the Bank and shares, plus House so wherever you put your dosh, there is returns to worry about and old age to ponder over. I still travel, (well until the bleedin Lock-downs, so prefer no "Lifestyle Blocks" nor other impediments....Wife only understands cash....and it is an impediment as to long term thinking. But getting older and past it...so spending as slowly as needs dictate. A Capital Idea it ain't...but most people do not have what this layabout has...I retired at 50 odd...so what the heck, you only have one life...so theory is enjoy it......until ya cannot. Cash still talks in most situations...if you know how to not compound the problem....and compound a little interest. (Even at 2.5%.)...less tax. Banks are lending at less than that in UK...etc.
But better cash than nowt....Nearly lost the lot many years ago, twice, in business and in the Finance Company Debacles of the 1987's etc. Cash interest may be declining...but never known people to decline cash....even in these days of electronic thievery. Credit where credit is due...I could see this lot coming....Debt and leverage is most peoples answer to gaining Capital Gains....but that seems to be falling by the way side....as it is mostly due to the rental payment by others, which used to work.....and from Tourists who didn't.....until now there are Houses Galore appearing around the World ...for sale. OK if you got out early. But I did.....so no sweat.
May not have your Land Value, but I have other values, more than most in this make-believe-world of Finance and Equity.
Pity we did not meet up in UK as planned a few years back on one of your Jaunts. But that was under anuvver Pseudonym....so may wonder what the hell I am wittering on about.
Thanks as always for info and links...it pays to keep being informed....Exchange and Mates Rates...not withstanding. It is a different World out there......and you can live on Peanuts...(Not Soy)....if you know how....
Our Pollies and betters...couldn't...they bet your dosh.....not mine.....on Houses.....all they can think about...
I only buy second hand....no GST. Petrol miser too. 50 to gallon.
Cheers the Altered Ego of an Old IT but free....Retiree.
LIC & FONT-error combined. So I do have some understanding...of Real Life mucking about....on farms.....but they did not..and still...do not.
PS. Top Heavy like most of our problems.
PPS....They were made by bigger and bigger idiots. Now they expect us all to Pay.
Sad to have missed you in the UK, when in England we live in a rather marvelous house of my brother in laws, built in 1520, has sword marks on the walls from when the roundheads fought in the house. Has an amazing history especially if you are a Daphne Du maurier fan. We shall be back in the UK after this has blown over, so perhaps we could catch up over an ale at the beach?
The world is a confusing place, regulation here is off at a gallop, highly taxed and regulated economies only go one way as far as I know. Perhaps we are about to witness house bubble 3.0 ?
I don't know how close to the sun you have to fly to lose your wings, I thought it was a while back, B/S can go a lot further than a lot of us thought.
Take care Andrew
Don't worry she has already got ahead of the pack. 1st in Hairdressers this week, next in line for teeth clean, Coffee Mornings, Clothes shopping...nothing new here....just put on temporary hold. Trip to Gisborne beach arranged , Horsing around at Daughters...Only a day trip..there. .and back...so Shopping whilst staying there........Trip to shops almost daily........I tripped up somewhere...Could have retired Years ago. HA HA DE HA. Some hopes.
I've got my eye on the area as I try to get a handle on this surfing business. I can see it takes a lot of time to master, and the waves a pesky intermittent things. Seems a consistent area to get the time on the water. I've been there as a child, twice as an adult, and always like the vibe of Gisborne. Most sunburnt I've ever been was at Wainui.
And I don't think I'll ever retire, too much thinking and designing to do!
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