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China retail sales weak, but industrial heartbeat stronger; ADB issues grim forecasts; US retail sales very weak, ditto industry; German GDP shrinks; UST 10yr yield at 0.64%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.5

China retail sales weak, but industrial heartbeat stronger; ADB issues grim forecasts; US retail sales very weak, ditto industry; German GDP shrinks; UST 10yr yield at 0.64%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 59.3 USc; TWI-5 = 65.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news April retail sales reports are quite grim everywhere.

In China, their retail sales in April were down -7.5% when markets were expecting a lesser year-on-year fall and a better recovery from March to April of +6.5% for the month. There is disappointment in these results. However, Chinese electricity generation and overall industrial production did rebound in April. But the recovery probably isn't enough for Beijing, so markets are expecting more stimulus. But it could just be more debt stimulus.

The Chinese central bank has cut its reserve ratio requirement for most regional and community banks, adding to their ability to debt-fund local projects.

However it comes, steel making will be a beneficiary. In fact, over the past week we have seen iron ore prices rise to their highest of the year, and now higher than before China's pandemic slowdown started. Metallurgical coal prices have stopped falling.

But there is a key commodity stat that shows there is recovery in Chinese economic activity. In March, they used 10.6 mln barrels of oil a day. That was up from a February low of about 8 mln/bbd. In April that rose to 11.8% mln/bbd which was about its 2019 average.

However, the Asian Development Bank has issued an updated estimate that says China will suffer a -7.8% decline in 2020 economic output. That is larger than most other analysts reckon. They also say the US will suffer a -5.7% fall, Japan a -1.7% retreat, and the EU will have a -6.7% fall. They say Australia and New Zealand will be hit with a -6.0% drop.

The ADB says the current crisis could cost global GDP up to US$5.4 tln and reduce economic activity by -5.9% worldwide. It is particularly hard on countries like Indonesia. An unstable Indonesia is Australia's worst nightmare.

In the US, data for American retail sales in April shows them -22% lower than the same month a year ago (and far worse than the Chinese experience), with -16% of that American fall coming since March. There has never been such a sharp collapse in American economic history.

In March, and prior to the April disaster, American industrial sales were down -4.9% from the same month a year earlier. Inventories leapt. When the April data arrives it is likely to tell a similar story to the retail sales story. But the US Fed has a measure of industrial production for April and that fell the most ever recorded, down -15% from April 2019. Consumer goods production was down -16% year-on-year, business equipment was down -26%.

Investors can't decide whether they should react to the unprecedentedly weak data, or the fact that many governments are moving to restart their economies. Wall Street ended flat on Friday, but down -2.5% for the week. Unbelievably, the S&P500 is at virtually the same level it was a year ago. (That is the power of share buy-backs to keep prices up.)

And the US Fed issued a clear and stark warning about the risks to stock and asset prices generally. In its Financial Stability Report, it fingered commercial real estate as the sector most at risk to a gruesome repricing. They also note risks are also high for residential real estate and farmland. It sees rising risk aversion leading to depressed valuations, increased volatility, and impaired market functioning.

Another complicating factor for the immediate future of trade is that the US-China trade relationship is unraveling faster now.

In the insurance market, Lloyd's of London has said it expects coronavirus-related claims to cost it up to NZ$9 bln, its biggest payout since the September 11, 2001 attacks in the US. A third of those payouts are related to the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics. And those current losses could rise further if the lockdowns continue into the Q3-2020 quarter. Although Lloyds is a relatively small reinsurance market on a global scale, it does indicate that few companies actually carried cover for such a cataclysmic event.

In Germany, they reported their economy shrank -2.3% in Q1-2020 from the same quarter a year ago.

In Australia, new figures show 429,000 mortgages have been deferred totaling AU$155 bln. The figures take the total number of all loans deferred to 703,000, worth a value of $211 bln. More than one in 14 mortgages now have deferral arrangements in place there.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 4,686,100 and up +178,000 from this time on Saturday which is similar level of increase.

Now, just under 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +48,000 since this time Saturday to 1,430,000. This is also a similar rate of increase. US deaths are now exceed 89,000. Global deaths now exceed 313,000. The four countries with the most reported infections are now the US, Russia, the UK and Brazil. Peru, India, Iran and Turkey now all have more reported cases that China. India has announced a third extension to their lockdown. The pandemic has spread out of US and Europe to be a major crisis in emerging economies, places far less able to deal with it.

In Australia, there are now 7045 cases (+26 since yesterday), 98 deaths (unchanged) and an improved recovery rate of just under 92%. 50 people are in hospital there (+4) with 16 in ICU (-1). There are now 580 active cases in Australia (-4).

One additional case was reported yesterday in New Zealand, in a Christchurch nursing home. There have now been a total of 1499 Covid-19 cases identified as either confirmed or probable. Twenty-one people have died (unchanged). There are still only two people left in hospital with the disease (unchanged), and neither are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just over 95% with 45 people known to be still infected (-4).

The UST 10yr yield is settled at just on 0.64% and a +2 bps rise. Their 2-10 curve is marginally steeper at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also a little steeper at +14 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is in the same trend and up +55 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is soft at 2.67%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield has settled at 0.64%.

The gold price is higher today that where we left it on Friday, up another +US$14 to US$1,742/oz.

Oil prices are higher today as well. The US crude price is up from Friday by about +US$2.50/bbl to just over US$29.50/bbl. The international oil price is up a lesser amount to just under US$32.50/bbl. Modest rises in demand and supply retrenchments are forces behind the move higher.

The Kiwi dollar is much lower this morning and will open at just under 59.3 USc. On the cross rates we have sagged to 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down to 54.8 euro cents. These falls mean the TWI-5 is now 65.5 and a six week low.

Bitcoin is a firmer in weekend trading, up +2.5% to US$9,742. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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103 Comments

RNZ:

"Truancy rates will increase as children return to school"

this is better:
https://msmagazine.com/2020/05/16/economic-growth-who-needs-it/

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Russia now has more than twice active cases than China had actual cases. The USA near to 1.1mill active cases.
China 2 other superpowers nil. World’s greatest exporter in so many ways it is obvious.

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I seriously don't believe China did anything deliberate with this virus. Incompetant certainly but the totally predictable incompetance of an authoritarian govt in a big country. However certain that Covid-19 was not a CCP plot against the rest of the world just hypothetically if it had been it would be typically Chinese long-view so the target would not have been USA or Russia but India. The big race for supremacy is authoritarian China versus democratic India (even when their govt is undemocratic the country remains democratic at village level). It has been a serious disappointment seeing China win the competition for the last 40 years - I still have minor hopes that India if it controls its population can win this race to be no 1 - certainly I'd prefer to live in a world dominated by the diversity of India rather than the monolith Chinese culture as constructed/permitted by Han Chinese CCP.

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I am sure the initial release of the 'gain-of-function' research virus from a lab in Wuhan in October was a mistake. But 3 months later the choice by China to quarantine Wuhan nationally while keeping international flights going, as well as pressuring WHO to pretend it was not transmitting Human-to-human, and every other effort they made to hide its danger from the world were very much done with Malice-aforethought. PRC could not economically afford to find itself in situation where they alone were infected and PRC have always had a careless attitude towards killing people.

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You have proof that there was a release from a lab? Like to present it?

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China has had three documented occasions where SARS has escaped from a lab. Is it really such a shock that they would lose another SARS derivative? They are also fanatical about saving face. It's like being surprised when a rottweiler bites someone.

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There is just so much evidence accumulating that it was a human made virus, and that PRC has been scrambling to try and cover that up. Eg:
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/is-coronavirus-man-made-the-bat-virus-…

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Fine - you'll be able to point to a scientific paper from a believable source, rather than an article from a dubious Australian blogger.

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You would think that every country’s intelligence agency will have been zeroing in on all the activities arising from that Wuhan subject lab with all the technical surveillance ability at their disposal. But not one iota of a factual record of a mishap, outbreak or similar has been announced, so far. If there has in fact been one, it might mean resorting to a well paid whistleblower with a vital authentic document being extracted. Russia are not too bad at that sort of carry on, so they say.

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if we are going to bubble with Australia, we need to open up to WA, NT, ACT, SA, qld all are on the same level as us with only a few cases left and the virus under control
we need to stay away from VIC and NSW as they both are starting to experience a new wave especially as they relax their rules

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Test at the border with free overnight stay in 5 star hotel, result available in 24 hours then free to continue nz holiday

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The difficulty there is those that test negative, but have the virus. A longer quarantine is necessary.

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That's where we are going wrong, nz will be stuck in limbo

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Your solution then?

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So you disagree in having tests for tourists? To me it's better than letting them wander in under the transtas bubble. What's your solution frazz and please dont say vaccines. Nz relies heavily on intntl students and tourists.. maybe you might even know someone who's job depends on it.

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Misinterpreted your comment sorry - but 5 days free at 5 star hotel? Would that sort of negate the benefit of them spending here especially if plain old backpackers? We need to only open our borders to country with zero transmission and cases - hopefully will be our status in a few weeks. Anything else is just not worth it especially before the 2nd wave hits - and it will.

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Can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with Houseworks. Test at border plus a few days of quarantine (not free, at traveller's expense), and then a second test (whatever would give sufficient confidence level that there are no false negatives). Trying to maintain a two week quarantine long term is suicide, it's totally unnecessary.

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Elimination is elimination. There is no opening boarders with countries that have not eliminated.
A breakout and another lvl 3 / 4 is an election loser.

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Visitor ban until a vaccine, or a better detection system is found is the best course of action. Once Aussie has it under control then expand that bubble.

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They are not even testing people in the two week quarantine. There is also no accurate test yet. The widely touted Abbot test is now estimated at 50% accuracy.

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So - how have we been able to contain cases?

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Any considerations with travel insurance with these types of plans. Anybody know if likes of Southerncross are going to provide such insurance?

Would your family book a holiday this year to Australia, say $5K all up, but can't get travel insurance for it?

e.g. borders could be closed again, country back in lockdown. $5k gone. I wouldn't take the risk if employment/wages are not guaranteed this year or next few years.

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Almost all travel insurance does not offer cover for two things: terrorism and pandemics.

I had a mate trying to get travel insurance for his "once in a lifetime" trip to Europe in February and nobody would insure him, including Southern Cross. That was before it was declared a pandemic, so insurers were already saying it was one, just not declared. So I doubt anyone is giving away travel insurance at the moment, would be very risky for them as you point out.

I kept telling my mate that he should put off his trip for a year at least, he didn't listen! Ended up trapped in Switzerland for a week, then managed to get a flight back from Germany, but his trip was completely ruined...

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Travel insurance policies purchased before a date in January, I believe the 14th, had cover for COVID-19 related claims. All policies after that date have no cover for it.

This is why the first thing I do is buy my flights, and then immediately buy travel insurance. That way you're covered for anything that happens pre travel - if you get into a car accident the following week and are still incapacitated by it by the time you need to travel, you can make a claim. Or if a worldwide pandemic breaks out. Or if there's a terrorist attack where you're going to visit and governments have issued travelled advisories.

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That is rubbish. Read the fine print. Date of policy irrelevant

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Negative interest rates will make the operating models of many insurance companies obsolete.

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I guess that the travel providers would need to front up with free or cheap cancellation - they should be the ones most willing to take on the risk.

However... those providers are exactly the ones likely to go under and disappear if the risks become realities. (Maybe it is OK then if they do not charge your credit card until travel date arrives)

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Problem is AirNZ don't like refunding tickets when a flight is cancelled. Consumer NZ is talking about laying a complaint about this for their flights through the US where US laws requires that tickets must be refunded if a flight is cancelled. It appears NZ is out of step with the rest of the world on this. I suggest NZ must step up and change our laws in this regard, or AirNZ will struggle to get up again, especially in the international arena.

I must admit that I do not understand why this is not already the case. An airline ticket is essentially a contract between a provider and a user, which should means the terms are negotiable. But AirNZ doesn't negotiate, but operates on the principle of caveat emptor. Esentially take it or leave it. Not a good look for one of the top airlines in the world.

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I thought AirNZ had that little tick box where you can purchase flight insurance?

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We insisted on a refund for a Business Class Europe ticket and ended up with a haircut, but were thankful not to potentially end up as unsecured creditors. There's no way we will be caught again. Prepaid tickets past a certain age, say 30 days, should not be used to fund today's operations. Air NZ needs to change its model.

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I wonder how many airpoints were redeemed against AirNZ's program partners recently?

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I find the return rate on Airpoints to so low that virtually not worth the effort.

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Just heard that the waiheke ferry was full elbow to elbow and no facemasks. If true, that's totally dumb. I disbelieve a lot of the disease hype but I do agree with taking reasonable precautions. In those situations facemasks should be a must imo

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They are only filling ferries at 50% capacity and every 2nd seat is not permitted to be used, amongst other measures.

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That's good

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Houseworks. I was taking the piss about Waikato yesterday.
The comment you questioned.
'I was angry before the lock down'.... lol

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From Iain Parker, Public Credit or Bust, on facebook over the weekend:

I really really really would like to believe the answer someone from within the RBNZ gave me in response to my very specific question because it will open up endless cost of living and business benefits for our society, but I am finding it too good to be true.

Have the years of deliberate obscurity around the issue of our money supply made me too skeptical or am I right to be suspicious?

My question was;

A question of my Reserve Bank for which I would very much appreciate an answer.
Are the funds you are using for the purchase of the various bonds being generated internally within the RBNZ or is the RBNZ borrowing from external sources then using those funds to purchase bonds?
Because I am sure you are aware it makes a very big difference.
I for one would be absolutely delighted if the RBNZ has been generating the funds internally of itself rather than sourcing them by way of funds loaned externally of the RBNZ then using them for the purchases, but sadly I don't believe it is the case?
If it is not the case, given the very big difference it makes to the stimulus outcomes, then the RBNZ needs to put the record straight and start telling people like the Stuff Senior Business Reporter Tom Puller - Strecker that when they write statements like this below, they are inept and misleading;
"The bank's quantitative easing programme is seeing it buy central and local government bonds from existing investors, with money that the Reserve Bank essentially creates on its computers."
End quote
Because unless I am going to be absolutely delighted in being proven wrong the RBNZ is not essentially creating money by typing it on its computers, it is borrowing money from sources external of itself that creates the money it is lending them by typing it onto their computers?

The answer from someone within the RBNZ was;

Hi Iain, the bond purchases will be funded using Central Bank money. ‘Central Bank money’ means either reserves or currency. In our case, only reserves are being used. So we will not be borrowing from external sources to pay for the bonds. Thanks.

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You do realise what a central bank is, right?

Because the person who originally asked this question almost certainly does not.

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Iain believes he has documentary proof they the funding is external.

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And there are 10s of thousands of people who think they have proof that the earth is flat.
Please don't let us descend into the realm of full blown conspiracy theory here.

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Go to his blog an argue with him, publiccreditorbust. Or find him on facebook. He's been onto this subject for a long time, he was on here in the early days.

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Mark Twain has a very good quote about doing that..

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"The bank's quantitative easing programme is seeing it buy central and local government bonds from existing investors..."
I was surprised when I read (as quoted) the rbnz are using QE to purchase existing bonds from other investors. How does that help the central govt to fund its deficit, it doesn't.

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Well, it does.
More demand for these bonds lowers their yield..

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Lower yields are good ( for a borrower at least). Is that relevant for central govt that can write it's own deal direct with rbnz, apparently the money will be loaned at zero percent

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Yes. And what are govt bonds?
Are they perhaps a govt. borrowing money on the open market?

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True but bureaucrats are looking at direct funding govt to rbnz. The point I was making is that the rbnz are buying existing bonds (previously issued) from investors who are cashing out. Yes the lowers yields on the secondary market

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I am not sure, but the RBNZ may have a different objective other than funding government spending here, and that is to help liquidity of bonds who might have collapsed if the RBNZ did not step in to buy them. I do not think in absence of the RBNZ the govt bond market was going to be liquid enough.

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I think it pushes down retail interest rates too right. The rbnz has said it wants lower mortgage interest.

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Economists are blind to phase changes, they assume all change is a linear progression. By phase change, I mean a sudden change of state, as in solid to liquid to gas. This is the danger of MMT, a certain amount appears to be predictable in its effect and controllable, but too much causes a sudden collapse in confidence in the local currency and the private economy is destroyed. There is a boundary where a phase change occurs and no one seems to know where it is.

The danger signs are when we start questioning the wisdom of keeping our savings in NZD and start deperately getting rid of them for a more reliable store of value. This may be housing, shares, gold or USD. The danger of a sudden phase transition, exactly as we have just had, courtesy of the Wuhan plague, is very real.

The danger is that we follow the path of the French Revolution re MMT. It seems harmless enough, but there are boundaries that really matter and no one seems to know where they lie:
http://www.libertarianpress.com/fiatmoneyinflation/Fiat%20Money%20Infla…

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Economists are blind to phase changes, they assume all change is a linear progression.
What? No they are not.
Have you ever read any macro theory? Have you ever understood any of the modelling/empirics?
Macro shocks are almost always modeled as immediate phase changes to new equilibrium levels. And no general equilibrium models or structural modelling assumes strictly linear transition paths.

Stop just making stuff up because it sounds smart.

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My general assertion seems to have offended. Yes, it is a generalisation, a verbal cartoon if you will. I could have been more precise and hedged the claim with "in general" and "often" and so forth. My comment is clearly an assertion of my opinion, not a summary of other peoples' opinions. It may well be rubbish. I do change my mind when people can show me the error in my assertions. Indeed, that is one of the primary reasons I state my opinions as bluntly as I reasonably can.

Where is the discussion about boundaries to MMT?

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You haven't offended. You have simply made a categorically incorrect statement.

What do you mean by MMT?
It is a trendy term among bloggers that gets thrown around, with a very loose definition of what it actually represents.

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It is a trendy term among bloggers that gets thrown around, with a very loose definition of what it actually represents.

There is no prescribed "manifesto" for MMT. And one of its core issues is that it describes how money work but oft quoted as a theory that is not prescriptive. Most people can't get their heads around the premise that nation states with sovereign currencies cannot go broke. To be honest, I think it's good people think like that, even if they're not necessarily correct. The problem with MMT as I see it is that it's based on assumptions about the current incarnation of fiat currency as being somehow universally unbreakable. Of course, this is wrong. The history of fiat currency shows that they have limited shelf life.

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Only the USD cannot go broke in our current system. All other currencies are derivatives of USD and can definitely go broke. NZ doesn't even own its banking system. They definitely cannot go print crazy and get away with it. If they did, NZD would plunge, rates would race higher and NZ property values would collapse.

The USD is different. People borrow in dollars and must repay in dollars. The demand is built in.

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Wait until there is 100 million infections in the US.
Everyone will be dropping dollars like a hot potato.

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Sorry, I stand by my statement, plain and unhedged. Let me explain:

Benoit Mandelbrot observed that both finance and natural systems exist in mild, moderate or wild states of volatility.

1 Mild volatility example:
Put a litre of water on the stove for 3 minutes on high, then turn off the heat. Temperature starts at 15 degrees C and rises to 20 deg C with a low level of turbulence. This is your example of a transition from one equlibrium state to another.

2 Moderate volatility example:
Put a litre of water on the stove and heat until it starts to boil, turn off the heat before it boils dry. The water changes state from liquid to gas in a moderately controllable fashion.

3 Wild volatility example:
Heat a litre of oil to 200 deg C and pour in 200ml of water. Result, an explosion and you end up in hospital. Uncontrollable change of state from liquid to gas.

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Okay. So do you understand what you are now arguing?
You are getting at the fundamental nature of randomness which underpins statistical relationships in all sciences. Not just economics.

What you are proposing is economists ignore chaos (wild randomness).
The answer is sometimes and to varying degrees.

But, your original sentiment is still incorrect. Yes, economists model with nice predictable distributions that have some nice markov properties, but by that very same token, transition can never be assumed to be linear.
And, because general equilibrium models are never modeled as linear representations of reality, they can easily be made to predict explosive, wild, outcomes by their very nature (and often do). However, modeling the unpredictability is a categorically stupid idea (for reasons which should be obvious. One being that there cannot be an assumption of a stable equilibrium.).
But that appears to be your argument..

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And, because general equilibrium models are never modeled as linear representations of reality, they can easily be made to predict explosive, wild, outcomes by their very nature (and often do). However, modeling the unpredictability is a categorically stupid idea (for reasons which should be obvious.

That sounds like a contradiction to me.

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What's the contradiction?

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Where is the discussion about boundaries to MMT?

Good for you for raising it. I'm also skeptical of the outcomes of how a political leadership implementing fiscal policy with an MMT mindeset. Japan is often used as an example of 'success" related to MMT. The biggest issue in Japan related to economic management is that it has understimated how human behavior actually works.

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My view is they simple exported their problems, or imported solutions. Solved the problem is a somewhat domestic sense, they'll be running out of places to export to though. The rest of the world is unlikely to find Japan a depistory for their problems.

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BBC Coronavirus: Brazil overtakes Spain and Italy as new cases grow. "Officials on Saturday reported 14,919 new cases in the past 24 hours, taking the total to 233,142.
Only the US, Russia and the UK have higher numbers. The daily death toll in the Latin American nation rose by 816 to 15,633 - the world's fifth highest. Experts warn that the real figure may be far higher due to a lack of testing." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52699165

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I would think that, for most Brazilians, the probability of accessing hospitals and medical equipment is about nil as well.

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How ridiculous. The sooner we get these people on work visas people back to the homeland the better.

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I hope this virus at least causes a complete reset in this country. A new focus on health over wealth. People have forgot that money isn't wealth.... Healths wealth!

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True. Took me 70 years and a heart attack to realise. Eat sensibly, keep moving and don't over strain the system - we look after old cars better than we look after ourselves. Now apply that thought to the health of the nation and in particular the health of our children - not just warm dry homes but also taxes on sugar and greasy takeaway food.

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Before taxes on sugar I would prefer a system where children do not have to wait 8mths just to get a first appointment for mental health, where in some towns counsellors/psychologists haven't closed their books to new clients due to demand, where children who live outside cities can't get assistance for things such as speech therapy, learning assistance etc - unless they are the extreme end of the issues. Or where, if there are services available for those with less than extreme cases, it is not up to parents who have been given a sheet of paper and told 'here go do this with them'. Not all parents are capable of becoming speech/learning therapists by just being given a piece of paper. Rights of young children for basic health and learning are third world in many parts of NZ.

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Depending on your definition of child and mental health. I grew up and for various reasons attended 7 different schools (England and Scotland) and I never experienced a child with mental problems; some might have been mildly eccentric or wild but nothing needing treatment. The fact that almost all those children either had two parents at home or if a parent was missing they were dead may have been the difference from today. We also had a culture of personal responsibility - if your life was a mess it was for you to resolve not blame someone else and ask for treatment. As a NZ child psychologist said to me more recently - they never have a child client with problems who doesn't have a parent with mental problems.
I will admit to receiving speech therapy (getting rid of my Yorkshire accent in southern England).
I concur with you that if our govt thinks a service is required then it should be provided not rationed by location and wealth.

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Reminds me of a chance remark from my English niece who is an equine veterinary surgeon. In dealing with horses and their owners she quipped that often she had the wrong species on the operating table.... Horses, as do many domesticated species, reflect their owners. Cue Philip Larkin on Mum and Dad....

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Don't necessarily disagree with you about children and their parents Lapun, when it comes to mental health. It's a different world socially to what it was even 30years ago. I heard a farmer say he and his wife considered it a privilege that she could choose to be a stay-at-home mum with their young children these days. That was the norm when we were raising our kids on farm.

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Its funny listening to the UK elites, those of which John Key aspired to so much. So much for 'we are all equal'. Please don't allow such a class system to become the norm in NZ. Cancel all honours ASAP.

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I'm wary about him simply because I have no knowledge of his history or bias. He makes clear points though & you will know from his comment about Police acting as school masters rather than citizens in uniform is quite accute. One aspect of lockdown he mentions and that I am seeing on facebook, with a couple of know major offenders, is surrendering liberty to scientists. In the FB instance it is amateur hacks that think they are scientists.

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I disagree about honours - keep them it allows us to reward the worthy without paying them so much that they exist in a different wealth elite. So not Raveen Jaduram chief executive of Watercare on salary over $800,000 pa but Lord Jaduram of Mangere Treatment Plant paid $400,000 pa.
Of course the truly elite need no honours list - Richie McCaw needs no title; even John Key love him or loathe him isn't altered by a knighthood. Whoever are the CEOs of Radius, Rymans, Summerset and Metlifecare because they deserve to be rewarded with knighhoods for locking down while our govt was still talking. If I meet Sir Bill Bloggs I would ask him how did he get his knighthood and he will say "I lockdowned my retirement village and probably saved many lives and stopped Covid-19 destroying NZ as it destroyed NY and UK" and I'd reply "let me buy you a drink Sir".

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We should sell some of them to high bidders too. 10 million for a knighthood. Cheap tax on vanity.

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Trademe hits 5000 rental listings in Auckland.
Out of the 10 properties I have monitored for the last 2.5 weeks, 8 are still on Trademe. Only 2 have advertised rental reductions.

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Not good but people still buying properties like its 2019 are insane give 3 months if you can to see some correction to market before buying as the bubble is yet to pop but it will soon

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Yes tracking higher. I think it will keep peaking until sept.

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Has anyone else noticed when you search rentals within TradeMe now it only displays total numbers available briefly before disappearing? I thought it might of been the browser i was using but have tried 3 and on my mobile - same thing. Why would they be hiding the total rental numbers i wonder......

EG https://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/CategoryAttributeSearchResults.aspx?so…

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I don't seem to get that.
I just checked and listing numbers stayed the same as I searched in Auckland and flicked between pages.
Some of the landlords are still dreaming - $430 - $450 pw for pokey, average quality one bedroom CBD apartments. No chance.
Especially when there are two bedroom apartments of similar quality at $475-500 pw.

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Pretty soon the economy will consist of council workers contracting council workers to do council work for a council worker.

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Socialist heaven. What matters is who controls the council worker.

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A decade ago, 80 percent of Americans agreed with the statement that a free market economy is the best system. Today, it is 60 percent, lower than in China. One recent poll found that only 42 percent of millennials supported capitalism. In another, a majority of millennials said they would rather live in a socialist country than a capitalist one.
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2019/1/7/18167691/what-is-socialism-ca…

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off course they would. The same millenials will be staunch supporters of capitalism in 10-20 years when they amass their own properties or inherit them form the baby boomers. I think those who do not support capitalism had countries such as Sweden, Norway or NZ in mind. Not fully understanding that these countries are capitalist too. And they also benefit greatly from trading with other capitalist countries.

Another point to consider is people always get what they have for granted. In the west that is personal freedom of choice unprecedented in almost anywhere on the planet. Most people do not feel like their exercising it as much, but when gone, they will really miss their ability to listen to whatever music they liked, read whatever book they liked or wear whatever they like.

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Great news from the Australian housing market..... Over we go!!!

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6157183895001

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What's the great news? That a housing expert is only forecasting falls of up to 20%?

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The great news is that the bulls are saying 20% fall, we all know what that means!

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At least the press still reports reality. Facts are, it's been and epic run, but debt has been out of control along with immigration. Both of those have bloated assets beyond the normal tax payers ability to support it. Kiwis voted for none of this.

Unless Nats clear policy if to maintain foreign ban, and ring fencing, they are tucker (dog food) again. So far they look like they want to role both back, which is a surprise because it's the main reason they are in opposition now.

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What are these guys thinking!

The Reserve Bank today announced that it has registered Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (“ICBC”) to provide banking services in New Zealand.

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2020/05/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of…

Does this prove or disprove the character test for running a bank?

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The RBNZ will have no bones with a state-owned Chinese bank. The media release states wholesale banking services. Funding from China?

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"Investors can't decide whether they should react to the unprecedentedly weak data..."
This period is quite interesting, a few years ago I read a book called 'Everything was forever, until it was no more' by a Professor Alexei Yurchak in which he explains how the fall of the Soviet Union was both inevitable to most people who lived in it yet completely unexpected and shocking to those who experienced it when it happened. I don't think I really appreciated the book at the time but I've been reminded of it a few times recently hearing people try to explain the discontinuity between Wall Street and Main Street.

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Dimitri Orlov did a few good blogs and a few books on the subject too.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/p/the-five-stages-of-collapse.html

He's wandered off-track of late, a tad. Not so far off-track as the average economist, though. So far it appears that 'The Economy' isn't a noun, it's a God. And that the 200 year aberration that was fossil-energy-backed growth in consumption of processed parts of a finite planet, is 'Normal'. And one opining here recently even claimed - if I understood him correctly - than bonds are 'assets'. So help us.....

A great download/read is Keyyn Hick's Collision Course - compare it to the stuff (essentially unchallenged propaganda) we hear daily, and weep.

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Collision Course: Endless Growth on a Finite Planet - Kerryn Higgs

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"commercial real estate as the sector most at risk to a gruesome repricing"
An anecdote from yesterday, as I finally got a haircut (not on my bank deposits, but my actual hair). The unit next to the hair salon has been sitting empty for about 6 months now. My barber asked his (commercial) landlord for a 20% rent break that he'd pay back after the lockdown. Nope, idiot landlord declined. So my barber ended the contract and moved to the identical unit next door for the reduced rent (different landlord). Idiot landlord will soon get bitten in the ass by his own greed. I reckon that unit is gonna be sitting empty for the rest of the year...
Just shows how some property owners still haven't caught up with the current events. I wonder what percentage is similarly delusional at the moment.

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Great anecdote. I reckon a surprisingly large proportion will be similarly delusional.

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From ABC Australia.
Very interesting view on employment (un).
Alan Kohler has the runs on the board

https://youtu.be/wUFo3Saw_q4

CBA say all growth in money coming into its customer accounts are govt benefits.
7.6 million people getting govt assistance. J keeper 6.0m & jseeker 1.6m
- if all counted as unemployed = 58%.
But unemployed only counted as such if you are looking for a job, many aren't as there are no jobs & not counted.

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The NZ$ slowly sinking. That'll keep the petrol prices up & make the junk from China even dearer. It's a tough world.

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