Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China's 'wolf warriors' are now targeting Australia.
But first, the latest update records +2.4 mln more people claiming unemployment benefits in the US, taking the total since early March to more than 38 mln. We may be getting used to such large numbers and this latest week is lower than last week, but this still represents a building social disaster, the scale of which vastly exceeds the Great Depression. In 1932, twelve million Americans were unemployed and one out of every four families no longer had an income. In 2020 the social safety net is helping with the income stress in the short term, but the level of real jobless level is also now approaching 25%. US jobless benefits typically last only 26 weeks.
And things are not improving for the nation's factories. The latest regional Fed survey in Pennsylvania makes grim reading for May. The national factory PMIs for May are no better. And the service sector is also still contracting very sharply, both at levels not as deep as April, but the compounding impact is deeply worrying for the core engine of global economic activity.
And the American real estate market is going into reverse too, recording its largest decline in more than a decade.
Things are arguably as bad in both Europe and Japan.
In Canada, the latest ADP employment survey is pretty grim with more than -225,000 jobs lost in April, their worst on record.
And today, equity markets are losing their enthusiasm for future prospects. The S&P500 us down -0.8% and paring back the weekly gain to under +3%. In the circumstances, any rise is hard to fathom and the 'green shoots' don't seem to stand too close scrutiny. Overnight, most European markets fell for that -1%. Yesterday, all main Asian markets were lower, as were the ASX200 and the NZX50.
There are major Communist Party meetings in Beijing this week and all eyes are on them for major announcements of huge stimulus and fiscal support for its virus-hit economy.
And in Hong Kong, Beijing has struck overnight, imposing PRC security laws and stirring outrage locally. It is a move timed to be just in advance of the annual Tiananmen Square remembrances that are a feature of Hong Kong's protest movement.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 5,047,400 and up +100,000 from this time yesterday which is rising at a faster pace than recently.
Now, just under 31% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +25,000 since this time yesterday to 1,562,700. This is an unchanged rate of increase. US deaths are now exceed 94,000. Global deaths now exceed 330,000.
In Australia, there are now 7081 cases (+2 since yesterday), 100 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just on 91%. 41 people are in hospital there (-2) with 9 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 509 active cases in Australia (-26).
We now have had ten straight days where there are no new cases. The total is still 1503 Covid-19 cases identified as either confirmed or probable. Twenty-one people have died giving a death rate of 1.4%. There is only one person left in hospital with the disease, and they are not in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just under 97%, with only 30 people known to be still fighting the infection (-5).
The Australia:China trade tiff is getting serious. China has changed its inspection procedures for iron ore imports under new rules that analysts say could be used to block Australia's most important export. And there are reports the chill will also apply to Aussie coal exports. The Americans aren't helping, cheering the Aussie and jeering the Chinese from the sidelines. China notices.
The head of the RBA is calling on Aussie banks to run their "large capital and liquidity buffers" down, previously built up for operational resilience, to assist the central bank and fiscal authorities meet the challenge of the recession starting to bite there. Depositors might have a different view. And so might credit rating agencies.
The health of Australia's business sector isn't any better than any other country, also recording an unprecentended contraction.
The UST 10yr yield is down about -2 bps today to 0.68%. Their 2-10 curve is marginally flatter at +50 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also unchanged +59 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -4 bps to 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is down -2 bps to 2.68%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -5 bps from this time yesterday at 0.63%.
The gold price is much softer today, down -US$26 to US$1,722/oz.
Oil prices are little-changed today. The US crude price is now just under US$33.50/bbl. The international oil price is at US$36/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is a little softer after its strong run up, today slipping slightly to 61.1 USc. On the cross rates we are holding at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 55.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 66.9 and marginally lower than this time yesterday.
Bitcoin has fallen away much more however, down more than -5% to US$9,033. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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230 Comments
Yesterday I suggested alcohol should be banned. Today I’ll push that further and state that people are dying and will continue to die if you don’t ban it. If partake of alcohol you are directly contributing to these deaths. You also saw there are people very willing to accept this and back the ban.
Is this making you feel a little discomfort? Are you starting to see the hypocrsy over the reaction to the virus?
What I’ve just used is a corollary. It is a more robust one than that being used to justify taking away civil rights. The underlying fact is simple, people die in road accidents and alcohol is a contributing factor. Alcohol is a contributing factor in violence, accidents, and general tomfoolery that isn’t has bad outcomes. While the underlying facts are true however, the corollary is highly questionable. For instance what isn’t being calculated is the enjoyment alcohol brings to many. The same applies for the civil rights abuses over the virus, but just like an alcohol ban emotion of subject fall for simple arguments and throw their reason out the door. .
To make changes, some permanent, to peoples civil rights on the basis of a corollary is dangerous territory because the corollary is always going to be questionable.
Taking away civil rights for “The Greater Good” suffers even deeper flaws as it is impossible to define and there are no standards to test this by. On the contrary your civil right to freedom is very easy to test, it is black and white. One question: Am I being detained constable? Or: am I free to go?
What hysteria? Have you seen what is happening around the world? Even the much vaunted Sweden is back tracking on their herd immunity response, as their claimed death toll climbs to almost 4000. Can you imagine the hysteria in New Zealand, if we had 2000 deaths because of COVID19 or even a thousand (we have half the population of Sweden)? Can you imagine how overwhelmed our healthcare system would be if around that many required critical care?
A hundred health care workers have died in the UK saving other people's lives, from your 'little' virus. Would you be happy if that was say 10 in New Zealand? Or if dozens of small children had contracted Kawasaki disease?
Don't like my Sweden comparison? Let's look at Ireland, same population as NZ, they have over 1500 deaths...
In your mind, does a civil society not protect the weak and vulnerable? Is it survival of the fittest?
Let's look at the facts, not your feelings, by pretending COVID-19 is just a normal flu. Here they are in real time - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda759…
I think the argument for hysteria (probably a bit strong to use that word) comes as an argument for proportional response.
Some random thoughts:
* More people have actually died from heart disease than the virus.
* Only one person is in hospital today with COVID.
* 1,000 people a day have been losing their livelihood.
* We are in the process of spending $100B+ and if believe debts costs money that is something.
* Poverty creates hardship so the more we make of it the worse our result.
* If we space all the money now what will we do when the virus arrives in NZ?
Is what we have proportional?
Is what we have done sustainable?
Are you just being obtuse, or are you actually this thick? You can't point to the deathtoll in NZ, without looking at what has happened in other countries. Just because we successfully reduced the spread and deathtoll doesn't mean covid wasn't a huge threat, it means we managed to avoid the worst of the human cost.
EVERY country where covid has spread has had to implement some degree of social distancing or restrictions. Every economy is suffering, irrespective of whether they implemented strict lockdowns or not. The only difference is those that went "hard and early" on lockdowns look set to get their domestic economy back on track.
Everyone loves to point to Sweden and say "look, you don't need lockdowns". The reality is they have one of the highest death rates per capita (8th in the world), they still have the virus spreading at a steady clip. And the fact is, while they didn't enforce a lockdown, the number of journeys and travel has dropped off massively, and their economy is suffering just like everyone else. And estimates are now that only 7% have found to have antibodies at the end of april... which means if they want herd immunity, they will be under some degree of reduced domestic activity for months to come.
Yep, yep, yep.
She's a sad old life for some and to be honest I don't like even thinking out it. I have never watched Once Were Warriors. I know people who lived like that, kids who were raised in that. To make it into entertainment.. somehow it just didn't sit right with me.
"I have never watched Once Were Warriors. I know people who lived like that, kids who were raised in that. To make it into entertainment.. somehow it just didn't sit right with me."
FYI, Once Were Warriors raised international awareness. Was overseas traveling and someone asked me about the film and whether there was any truth to it. Having grown up in the area where the storyline was based and having a former flatmate who could be a violent drunk, I confirmed that it was.
Big problem Scarfie, alcohol in its many forms is so embedded in our culture in so many ways that it is virtually impossible to ban completely. Even religion has it buried in it with stories of water being turned into wine. The basis of this of course was that the water would have been undrinkable due to pollution, and alcohol was a means of purification to make it drinkable. Plus the 'wine' was very low alcohol content, to counter the fact that alcohol is a diuretic, taking water from the body, a very bad thing in a desert culture where water is scarce to begin with. The modern world has forgotten all this and as is it's way, takes all things to excess. Yes alcohol is killing people every day, some by choice (they choose to drink, including to excess) and others as victims, and as much as i agree with your sentiments, I don't believe it can be banned easily. Then there is the money made from it and the lobbying that produces......
Agree alcohol is entrenched in our lifestyle but I do think we should tax it higher to assist the government as a deterrent for those who drink excessively and therefore cause accidents and assaults. Australia has the right concept. I realise we have ACC and they don't but lets be honest it is very cheap in NZ.
Interesting fact. We are evolutionary adapted to consume alcohol and this is traceable in our DNA to 10 million years ago, approximately around the time we climbed down from the trees, suffice to say, our fondness for alcohol goes quite a bit beyond "lifestyle", we were getting drunk long before we cultivated fire, lived in caves or developed hunting skills. It was part of our culture before we developed language. But good luck banning that! https://www.pnas.org/content/112/2/458
Yep, beer, real beer, is a fermented product and is good for you (especially as you couldn't always trust the water). Typical plowman's lunch consisted of Sourdough bread, cheese, pickled onion, and pickled meats, and a fermented drink like beer, stout, or ginger ale, all fermented foods.
Originally it was the ethanol in fermented fruit that our primate ancestors found on the floor of the forests but we ate enough of it to develop the genetic adaptation. The earliest archaeological evidence of wine fermentation found has been sites in China (9000 years ago), Georgia (8000), Iran (7000), Greece (6500), and Sicily (6000). Presumably it was going on before that and using fruit in sewn animal hides but it wasn't until the neolithic and we started settling and leaving evidence for archaeologists.
It has worked to a point, but addicts are addicts, and eventually all you end up doing is making addicts poor (are the smoking demographic is mostly not wealthy to start with). For smokers they just need to start raising the minimum age one year per year. Won't totally eliminate smoking, but would go a long way.
Somehow I knew that this would be your response... So do you believe that or not? Why quote somebody, whom you used in defence of ideas you were espousing, if you don't actually agree with what they've said?
Also, as much as I'd prefer not to engage with you, can you at least not appreciate that there are often unintended consequences of certain actions? Take prohibition, as is your own example. Sure, alcohol consumption per capita is bound to decrease (and many of the associated illnesses). On the flipside we're likely to see an increase in organised crime, which invariably leads to an increase in violent crimes and murders (to mention only a couple).
Nobody *has* to present evidence, but, in the absence of either rational argumentation or facts and evidence posts become much less convincing to anybody following a debate.
People are not mind readers. People may be thinking along other lines. Sometimes people just misunderstand a post.
So sure, I think it is necessary to post evidences you have if you expect people to understand you.
It’s neither. By banning alcohol you are imposing a sentence on good society, eg those that behave and handle it well, based on those that don’t. Likewise lower the speed limit for everyone to the level that makes dangerous drivers safe. That is not a democracy. But if it is being claimed that for the greater good, then some elements in our society are expendable and should be sacrificed, then that is fascism, Adolf would be right on board with that.
Interesting point and quite arguable too, that is within the context of all but my last sentence, I assume. Expect responsible dog owners of certain breeds would be aggrieved similarly. It surely does identify the dilemma for any democratic government of how and where to draw the line. The only qualification I can suggest is that the restriction is a selection by type in whatever category, dogs, guns use of laser lights, drones and on. In some ways that does apply to alcohol, for instance over proof spirits and such as absinthe are prohibited in many countries.
Yea but it doesn't change behaviour does it? We havent had 8% pre mixed drinks here for years as they were deemed dangerous. Yet we still have alcohol problems. It's not the substance or tool or dog or gun, its the behaviour of those using it. Just like how the war on drugs won't ever be won.
Understood and agreed. The last government’s attempts on ridding NZ of synthetic drugs was hardly successful. Likewise prohibition in the States was a disaster. It is impossible to identify and predict all in society that pose a risk to others. There is danger everywhere if there is on the loose, a madman or psychopath, even just a malcontent acting on an impulse. As we unfortunately have had to learn, aeroplanes, trucks are lethal weapons with as much potential as gun fire. So we now take precautions as best able, lock your car doors, lock your front gate, guard your back at the ATM. In truth that is in same vein as the government’s current criteria on social distancing.
What I've observed amongst the facebook fraternity is that it is those at high risk that are most vocal about the lockdown. The bias is extreme. Like I posted the other day, we are socialising the risk.
The parallet to alcohol is well reasoned. What I want to see is consistency of thinking, about risk, about civil rights. The virus has shown how rare this is. I am lucky I have a few friends as a benchmark. Mature men in the risk category, but also men with IQ's of 150+. I'd put Bob Jones in the same category. People past a certain threshold of intellect that can see past their bias to the bigger issues involved.
I could write a very long list of current and historical psychopaths, despots, serial killers, crooks, child abusers and fanatics with high IQ's but what would be the point? Scarfie knows some people on facebook, which is most assuredly the very highest source of data, on which to base ones rantings.
The parallel Scarfie tries to draw between alcohol and the physical restrictions around the Covid-19 pandemic is false. The Covid-19 restrictions on "liberty" are temporary, and will end as quickly as the virus can be contained. The problems of alcohol, in contrast, are endemic and perpetual. There is no parallel; the analogy is nonsense.
but will they -- mass contract tracing around for years to come --- big brother is tracking you --- first attempt was to pass the legislation for two years not three months -- If covid 19 becomes a long term variant of normal flu -- vaccine nowhere near 100% successful -- these restrictions could be in place for ever
If Europeans could get over the Spanish Inquisition without democracy, I think there is a pretty good chance Kiwis can vote against any enduring infringement on liberty. Clearly there are sufficient people with your zeal for liberty who could take part in the time honoured tradition of protest. Furthermore, where does the intense paranoia come from exactly? Is there any sign that NZ politics is in such a shabby state that we believe we are actual peril of losing it imminently? Is our democracy so fragile? Also is it not slightly bizarre that google, facebook and numerous apps have far more data on you than the contact tracing app and yet, so many rampant virus deniers use these services without blinking?
The tracking is only kept on your own phone. You telling me you never use your 'location on' feature where you are actually sharing the location with a myriad of other organizations? You've already agreed to a much intrusive App way before this tracking app was suggested. Got something to hide? Yawn....
I can’t stand this wafer thin argument...the reason we “only” have had 21 deaths is because we went into lockdown early enough to gain control of the viral spread. We will never know how many deaths would have occurred had we done nothing or were late but one can look to other countries (see UK, USA, Italy, Spain, southern America’s) who’s response was/is poor and make an educated guess.
Later is obviously markedly better (if that is indeed the choice). Later means more time for treatments and vaccines, more time to learn about the virus, the longer term effects and risk factors, more time = more knowledge = less death. Not to mention that an initial lockdown has helped many countries to flatten the curve to within their healthcare capacity (ie many less deaths) and allowed them to increase healthcare capacity for a future peak (also = less death later) so later = less death. What could possibly be the benefit of sooner?
Later is obviously better for accuracy, but there is the problem of money.
Our response is extremely money heavy and it is important we know if we are over reacting because we can't afford to do it for years. It is not an either or situation (the sooner or later) but without cost benefit analysis we are driving in the dark with the lights out. Lights are good. Even poor lighting is a step away from the dark.
I have no problem with the idea of a low/moderate level of "sin taxes" funneled into the healthcare system, but healthy/unhealthy isn't a good metric, its not even a metric really. Some people consume a lot of healthcare resource due to things beyond their control, things that have happened to them due to their parents' choices, due to environmental factors, due to just plain old bad luck sometimes.
Newbie
It is not that we lost 20 lives we lost; it was about the lives we saved.
How many lives did we save? This will remain unknown but with lock down NZ had 21 deaths; at same rate as Belgium - who had an even longer longer lock down and greater economic chaos as a result - our death would have been over 4,000. Early NZ modelling suggested 26,000+
And for heavens sake, it isn't just old people; a youngish Auckland guy on Breakfast this morning who survived but had a horrific experience.
alcohol is by far the most harmful aspect of our society - causes way more pain, violence , poverty , child neglect than drugs - or any disease . Given the choice of no alcohol or no Covid -- i would pick no alcohol every time -- and i run a medium heatlhcare NGO with very vulnerable people -
http://ahw.org.nz/Portals/5/Resources/Toolkit%202009/Fact%20Sheet%20Alc…
As soon as the government (or any government) enforces any tracking of any sort your freedoms (whats left of them) are lost. There are many who call in to talk back radio stating a tracking app collecting data is no different to any of the playstore or appstore apps that already collect and store data. This is true as long as the individual has the right of consent, privacy laws are adhered to, and the data collected is stored in a jurisdiction where those laws apply. I simply don't have confidence in the New Zealand government to be able to defend our privacy. Technology and pandemic 'events' are leading towards a surveillance society without a doubt. Measuring voluntary uptake of the COVID tracking app will be under very close watch. If over 50% of the population use/accept an app voluntarily, there is a mandate to enforce it. Whether this government enforce it or not, a government in the near future will. 5G being a catalyst. A lot of the 'data' required to surviel already exists, New Zealand's problem is that is does not have jurisdiction over a lot of it. That's why is absolutely imperative that we maintain our 5 eyes status. Why is the CCP hell bent on selling Huawei 5G?. If you have ever negotiated global supply contracts of telecommunications you will know there are privacy clauses where you consent to the collection (by the provider) of personal data for the purposes of the providing the 'service'. These clauses are mostly non-negotiable. Its an open door for the provider to collect both inside and outside our jurisdiction. How valuable will data collected be to nations who don't actually own it? What a commodity this data will be. You all know this already though.
I agree that alcohol is massive problem in NZ, but think banning it would simply drive it underground - making it vastly profitable, unregulated and increasing the liklihood of associated violence. What this country needs is a change to drinking culture - when it's no longer cool to get hammered then people regulate themselves. Treating people as if they don't have any agency in their own decision making doesn't just disempower them, but massively underestimates how desire drives consumption.
Drowning in pools. No way - That's Nicolas Cage's fault.
Driving deaths are generally accidental.....unless drugs and alcohol are involved. Drinking alcohol/doing drugs is a choice. Along with the myriad of social problems that go with it from people that cannot handle their alcohol/drug intake. Of course a lot of people shouldn't be driving either.....take away alcohol and drugs from the driving equation and you would have 42% less deaths (not counting the unofficial ones under the current limits). You kind of need to drive in todays society with NZers lack of transport options, you don't need to do alcohol or drugs..simply a choice. Poor comparison.
Current law makes alcohol illegal in some circumstances. Eg Flying a plane, Air Traffic Controller, Guiding kids across a street. The law enforced as appropriate. Having Covid-19 and lying in your hospital bed is not illegal. Rushing around infecting other people presumably is illegal. It is surely all a matter of the circumstances.
The 'my house is my castle' civil liberty is long held and not to be easily discarded however I if I have a group of pre-schoolers in my house I cannot persuade them to drink alcohol or play with loaded guns or do other massively dangerous activities. The law would not let me do so and thumb my nose to police because 'my house is my castle'. Same kind of thing applies to Covid-19.
I have an instinctive sympathy for your views, but, hey, shades of grey. I’d like to share my experience on Easter Sunday while I’m online. My wife and I went for a short drive to a local beach 3kms from where we live in a rural Auckland area. On the road to our destination was a roadblock of FIVE police cars, with eight officers. We were questioned, told there was a beach nearer to our home, and turned back. OK, there was a beach nearer, better described as a tidal mudflat, and there was about two kms in it. But my point is, were five cars and eight officers really needed on a public holiday at penalty rates plus lieu time?
Perhaps there had been a lot of reports of health ministers in the area... God forbid you do something good for society and stay home for a few days... Glad to know it was all about you. Can we please have the area you live in so my family can make a concerted effort to stay away from your neighborhood in the future as I would hate to trample on your God given civil rights that take precedent over the good of society in general. Own any assault rifles do you? Seen a mental health professional lately? Listen to fox entertainment channel?
Such an idiotic argument, it's hard to know where to start. But here's a clue - check the places where the lockdown came too late and see how many died. Check NY/Lombardy etc. If you are advocating for full freedom of movement despite the virus, then you are advocating for your country to be in a much worse state than those places.
You won't find much sympathy from intelligent people who can review the evidence.
"The underlying fact is simple, people die in road accidents and alcohol is a contributing factor."
Isn't the key objective of the lockdown to flatten the curve & to avoid overwhelming the ICU in hospitals?
1) How many of the alcohol related illnesses can be treated by having the patient at home and not taking up a ventilator in a ICU in a hospital?
2) Will the alcohol related illnesses all happen at the same time and overwhelm the ventilators and ICU in the NZ hospital system?
https://youtu.be/U8q2IEj-j24?t=160 - refer 2:41 to 4:20 in the video
3) How many of the alcohol related illnesses will be passed onto medical staff so that they are no longer able to treat other infected patients like this example?
https://youtu.be/U8q2IEj-j24?t=1117 - watch until 19:23 in the video.
4) How many alcohol related illness patients in hospital can infect another patient in hospital with an unrelated illness?
https://youtu.be/U8q2IEj-j24?t=1099 - watch until 18:36 in the video
NZ had the capacity to deal with about 80 people at one time on ventilators from memory.
The big difference between alcohol related illnesses and COVID-19 is that COVID-19 is extremely CONTAGIOUS.
If it wasn't for our cultural history, ie if alcohol was discovered tomorrow, it probably would be banned, like most recreational drugs.
Alcohol can be dangerous, and so we regulate alcohol. We also regulate firearms, driving, medications, flying, etc, etc, etc. Maybe the regulations go too far - eg I would love to build my own home out of recycled materials with little/no oversight. And maybe decriminalisation will do more good than harm. But to argue there should be no regulations? Well, fair enough, there is an argument to be made for the freedom of some kind of anarchist society. But is that really what you're advocating?
And in this instance we've temporarily regulated people's movements, as would happen to a greater or lesser degree in any sort of civil emergency, eg chemical spill, war, natural disaster, crime scene. You can argue over the degree of regulation, ie that we've gone too far. But to say there shouldn't be any regulation, "because freedom"? Goodbye society as we know it.
The left wing socialists want to get their way - it’s passive creep is designed as such so as it’s barely noticed. Like a ratchet it can’t be reversed. As much as the CHCH mosque shootings were a tragedy, the gun amnesty/ buy back provided the perfect opportunity to take away the guns leaving the Police and the Military. As I’ve said before, Socialism will be the dark horse that Facism rides in on.
Scarfie,
I disagree with much, but certainly not all of what you write. Quis Custodiat Custodiens? Who will guard the guardians? was written over 2000 years ago by the roman writer Juvenal and holds true today. So yes, we must pay attention when any government proposes to curtail our liberties and hold them to account.
But, as a civilised society, we are never free to do just as we please -like choosing to drive on the right or not paying tax- and there are many other examples. I would guess that politically, you are much further to the right than I am, but looking at the parlous state of politics in the US, it is very important that we respect each other's right to freely express our views.
If the price of freedom is eternal vigilance, then beware those who mock or discount vigilance.
I don't think anyone is arguing for any kind of pure freedom, people who understand the nature of freedom know it is a trade off.
It is certainly fair is ask questions and demand accountability of one's government.
Hmm... poisoning and polluting the air, land and sea, stripping away the soil and forests should all be banned...
Working conditions and financial stress not conducive to wellbeing should be banned...
...the enjoyment alcohol brings to many... ah that could be a false perception to start with. Social conditioning, habitual (not necessarily an addiction), most people wouldn't truly know why they drink alcohol.
What are civil rights? Who grants them and for whom? Do they not evolve as cultures evolve? It was once a civil right to have slaves, to treat women as property, and it still is in some cultures. In a culture premised on higher values would it not be a civil right to share resources, a civil right to nurture the wellbeing of all? A culture premised in fear, scarcity, greed, status will encourage more of the same. Which one is most likely to find enjoyment in drinking alcohol?
China likes to pull on the tale of the tiger. The young of Hong Kong are not going to lie down easily. And there is another issue they face. If they push outward too hard and do manage to start a shooting war with someone - the US(?), with a significant part of the HK population not agreeing to autocratic rule, what side would they choose. How would or could you fight a war when one entire province of your country will likely choose to side with the other side? (Two if you would count Taiwan, although I personally consider them to be an independent, democratic country)
a small part of young hk ppl is rebellion to China purely because of their distorted education from the British left textbooks.
one example is that the textbook praises the British selling opium to China and the opium war.
how ridiculous is that?
1.4bn ppl are looking down at both hk snd taiwan.
if any bottom line is touched involved with any foreign forces, China will win at any costs.
as the foreign ministry speak woman said, this is not 101 years ago. China's military mighty can defeat the new group of eight imperialist countries.
Your military is made with the same processes and production lines that makes all the other rubbish that ships from your country. China still can't make a car that doesn't fall apart. And the design thinking that China produces is non-existent. No creativity to speak of which stacks up given communist nation's supress free thinking. One US carrier fleet could probably take out your entire inventory.
And you build your freedom by slaughtering the Native Americans, the Inuit people in Canada, the Aboriginals in Australia, and the Maori in New Zealand, and forcing selling opium to China, and building military bases all over the world?
Is your freedom built on the dismay of many others? Ask yourself this question and look into the history subjectively.
Historical atrocities have been made by all sides by all our ancestors. However, if my father murdered somebody, I am not held responsible, because its not my fault. We are however, responsible for any horrors that we cause right now..... and the CCP is causing too many to mention. They will be completely isolated by the world soon and their only "friends" will be people who owe them money. Good luck with that : )
This Treaty is a binding document that has no time constraint, like the US constitution. It's contents must be adhered to at all times until amended. There is a disagreement about the contents original intent and therefore this is still relevant today. Has China ever had a Treaty with any territory it has occupied?
Well see, that's an interesting point, because before - you were saying you are not guilty of the sins of your father, but here you are describing how 'faults' of history are carried down through time. Your adherence to the Treaty IS you adopting the faults of the fathers of fathers before you. That's how it works. Same with the US Constitution. Imagine the hypocrisy of writing "all men are created equal" while owning slaves. Lol. So the behaviours that you adopt which are informed by the Laws that you abide by imbue you with the faults of history. And those faults are (in the case of the Treaty) - using documents such as these as cover while continuing to conquest aboriginal people because you think they are less than you, and I see this in your view of China and Chinese, and the other fault (in the case of the Constitution) is hypocrisy - While preaching a universal moral outcry towards China, you are unable to see the gross misdemeanors in your own (and I use this term liberally) culture. You will never see clearly through these two prejudices. But I believe in you :)
"However, if my father murdered somebody, I am not held responsible, because its not my fault" was the other point which I am pretty sure is true? Do you blame today's Germans, or hold them responsible for the atrocities carried out in WW2 by their forefathers? I don't, you may. I do love Chinese food though : )
They may harbour blame because they are human and unless they are sociopathic, feel empathy and guilt for the suffering of others. I would feel terrible if my father killed somebody and it would hurt me deeply, but everybody else would know that I am not to blame, because I am not. Had I been alive at the time I would have stopped my father from killing that person. That was not possible, but I can try and stop atrocities today.
The aboriginal people of Taiwan are now under 2% of their population - with 98% Han chinese who started colonisation about 500 years ago. Maori population of NZ is now probably higher than it was before the European's arrived. And at least we are ashamed of the times we cheated Maori out of their land and are making apologies and attempting recompense. What is happening in Tibet?
You're talking about what happens when the thin veneer of civilisation peels off. It's a fact that Anglo-saxons are descended from the most violent, raping, pillaging culture that's ever lived - the vikings. It's in our blood to do that sort of stuff in times of civil disorder. This dog is big and fierce, and loves the taste of blood.
The alternative is to keep being civil - your choice mate.
Perhaps we need to learn from 'a much fairer' society:
Over 150 members of China's parliament are billionaires:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/business/china-parliament-billionair…
The CCP is trying to rob part of India again now too. Another Nuclear armed country. They really are good at making friends aren't they? I think their time in the limelight is about to come to an abrupt end. Even Russia is no longer on their side. They are 100% on their own and all through bullying and oppression. Got too big for your boots. Goodbye CCP. Nice knowing you....not!
https://thehill.com/policy/international/496891-pompeo-is-trump-attack-…
The US media uses the dog metaphor.
Yes agreed JP, China simply can't afford to lose Hong Kong as a credible gate way to the West. Taking them by force or using illicit means to subjugate them isn't going to go down well with Western nations who will simply stop trading with China if the become the bully of the world.
BBC China proposes controversial Hong Kong security law. "The move is likely to provoke strong opposition internationally and in Hong Kong, which was last year rocked by months of pro-democracy protests." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52759578
The West is implicit in the rise of China. We all averted our eyes once the cheap Gap Jeans and Nikes started to appear on our our shelves. And we will again when HK loses it's democracy and the containers keep loading. The nouveau outrage at China is about 30 years late..
Important point here. Decoupling from China is gonna be like decoupling from pollution. It requires an end to our short term mindset which so far we've been unable to do, even in the best of times. Will it be easier to do during the worst economic crisis in decades?
Oh that's a very hypercritical comment Xing, with your going on about opium wars. How about all those dodgy chemicals needed to produce synthetic drugs like methamphetamine that the Chinese supply to poison the West to make a profit. Are you aware that China's Hubei province was a major exporters of fentanyl, an opioid before the coronavirus. I'm guessing the drug lords have found other supply chains by now.
Ironically China is displaying a broader example of supply for a demand within a free market than your morality is allowing. Perhaps if there wasn't the demand, China wouldn't supply it. And overnight if all meth heads turned to prayer, China would probably supply prayer books. So we're all joined at the hip here. There's nothing stopping NZ from making its own precursors or prayer books. What is the greater problem: The moral decay of the West, or that China profits from it?
I've read a few English history books. None said anything +ve about the opium war. And even at the time of the opium war the opposition in the British parliament was totally outraged. Compare that to the attitude of China's opposition to activities in Tibet and East Turkistan. Do you have an opposition able to speak truth to power?
Please give me the title and author of the textbook. I will search NZ libraries and if we have it will report it.
Vikings were easily beaten by an English army of similar size in 1066 at Stamford Bridge. They were pretty good at one on one fighting, but not the equal of properly organised armies using archers, cavalry and other elements. Technology beats 'spirit' Same as 10000 Romans wiped out 200000 British (Boudica) at battle of Watling Street for loss of only 400 soldiers. China has very good and rapidly improving military technology, and a large army of (relative to west) very smart troops.
This is a good point and 100% agree - by the time the battle of Hastings rolled round the English had been fighting and inter-breeding for over 200 years with the Vikings and had become a stronger more cohesive army under Harold. Technology and discipline underpin every successful fighting force. Contact sport is exactly the same, and is our modern day "warfare" that satisfies that mongrel part of us. But anyone who's been in the middle of a game where that structure breaks down, knows when it comes down to it - it's the mongrel part that turns the tide in the other direction and allows the discipline of the team to return. Open to being wrong, but I've never seen that in Chinese culture here in NZ.
Yep & Harold had the winning of it at Hastings but the silly buggers charged when they should have retained their shield wall and stayed put. Blood lust instead of discipline. Thus Britain became Norman. Ironically those same Norman’s being descendants of the Vikings same as those that Harold had defeated at Stamford Bridge only a few weeks earlier.
"Your dog just might try to eat you"
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/natashaumer/cats-eat-your-face-aft…
I don't know much about modern China. I think the people are amazing but communism has I believe been a catastrophe. What they have now as a gov't could be a force for good or evil, I'm starting to lean further towards the bad side.
That gives the rest of the world some serious problems, how far we go to support a regime we don't agree with, that could become expansionist? In the past, appeasement has led to problems down the road, that in hindsight could have been avoided. It also requires a level of leadership not seen in years. Where is the line in the sand, how much are we prepared to sacrifice short term, for long term security?
Chinas policy of supporting near slave labour, the State paying freight etc, has hollowed out the Wests and lots of the thirds worlds manufacturing capacity, this has been a disaster hidden under a pile of consumer debt that's going to haunt us for decades.
https://www.biography.com/political-figure/neville-chamberlain
The ROC makes the PRC look like the younger bigger uneducated bullying half brother who wants what the older more civilised better educated older half brother has. Taiwan makes Xi feel inferior and he don't like it one bit. Unfortunately, if he can't have Taiwan nobody can and he is willing to destroy it just to stop the humiliation.
Taiwan GDP per capita is higher than NZ's. If it is based on gold from the mainland then Taiwan would have been wealthier (GDP per capita) than NZ ever since the end of WW2. I've no figures but I doubt it.
I reckon Taiwan's success started under autocratic corrupt rule but continued when democracy kicked in - honest institutions are the basis of a developed economy. China needs to learn from Taiwan - they have managed stage 1 the move from poverty to middle ranking wealth now they need to copy Taiwan and develop the free honest institutions that permit a doctor to report bad news to his regional bosses without being arrested. The industrious Chinese led by a democratic govt like Taiwan's would be leader of the world and be so deservedly.
China in ten words.
This book opened my eyes to the China that existed when I was young and the huge change from Terror to enlightenment onto Modern China.
https://www.amazon.com.au/China-Ten-Words-Yu-Hua/dp/0307379353/ref=tmm_…
I can't fault or improve your own words ""I don't know much about modern China. I think the people are amazing but communism has I believe been a catastrophe. What they have now as a gov't could be a force for good or evil, I'm starting to lean further towards the bad side.""
I did a short course on the history of science. Joseph Needham's "Science and Civilisation in China" was impressive. The sheer range of technologies developed first in China. I can't claim to have read it - far to many volumes but it was considered authorative. It left me with a strong admiration of the Chinese people and also leaves me dumbfounded when its government inheriting that culture and with quite remarkable economic success then behaves like childish school yard bully. America deserves a better president and will get one; China deserves a more mature grownup government - less of the bad side.
"The sheer range of technologies developed first in China"
I think it is in his 'Civilisation' book, but Naill Ferguson also comments on this but points out that almost none of them were developed and asks why that was. But the fact of it is startling in both the positive and the negative.
I had someone question the validity of an event I posted on facebook because it linked to a civil rights site. Thing is the chairman of the organisation is Gary Kasparov. It is all about how many moves ahead you can think. Judging by the comment section on this website, for most it is generally not very many.
Easy enough for Kasparov as chess rules are clearly defined and known by all. However in the world of politics and warfare, the rules don't necessarily apply. Indeed in warfare there is a military axiom; 'If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'!"
Degradation of the current situation, and the determination of winners will not be dependent, or reliant on the rules, as new ones will be invented in the process, whether you like it or not. It is not fair, never has been and never will be. There is one goal - to win, any thing else is a loss, and some would rather die than lose.
For whatever reason people regularly try to stereotype me as a left-wing communist on here - no idea why. But I'm actually a bit of a Ronald Reagan fan and quite enjoy his speeches/quotes etc. Here's one:
“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they already have it.”
People who can't think shove people in boxes, what can you do. Don't worry about it.
Have you seen Reagan's joke about buying a car in the Soviet Union: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLW7r4o2_Ow
While an independent investigation into the origins of this virus is necessary, NZ should be careful. The USA is using this investigation as a deflection from the Trump administration's abysmal response and failures aka “badge of honor”. The Australian government is so desperate to do the USA’s bidding to their own detriment. NZ is smarter.
Yes, and many Governors must be regretting their sending tested positive people into aged and care facilities.
We were fortunate here to have aged care facilities privately run and in lockdown/protection, a week or two before MoH recommended WHO advice.
For the weekend....
There are several Unherd podcasts youtube of note.
1. Sinatra Gupta, the Oxford model
https://youtu.be/DKh6kJ-RSMI
2. Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College model
https://youtu.be/6cYjjEB3Ev8
And
3. Niall Ferguson with historical context.
https://youtu.be/KsmmCjxQz6w
Just running the numbers on US unemployment.
It looks like the labor force was 164m in Feb 20. And it appears that approx 39m people have lost their jobs in the last 9 weeks (could it be more as I understand some people haven't filed for unemployement?).
39/164 = 24%. INSANE!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_force_in_the_United_States
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/21/us-unemployment-figure…
I recall the unemployment payment system in the USA is also totally different to NZ. You pay an unemployment tax/insurance in your wages and it only covers you for 6 months. If thats true then the real pain will be felt in 5 months time. If you look at everything that is happening in the USA right now, they are still kicking the can down the road but the real problem now is that its suddenly a VERY short dead end road.
Work from home is a new normal. Watch out for house price correction in main cities.
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/21/zuckerberg-5…
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/…
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52570714
A taste of what will happen to NZ tourism based areas.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronavirus-dubai-70percent-of-companie…
Most travel agents in NZ where landlords have adjusted the rent by 50% or given a holiday have decided to hibernate as that is more viable than running the show.
So much is made out of domestic tourism , which was approx 35%in Queenstown before virus and now even if get 50% or 60% in best case scenario may find hard to run the operation with 20% business. May help some but not many and if talk about Travel Agents they do sell NZ but to overseas clients and not to locals as local will plan themselves and just book hotels online and travel . Will help hotels but again with 20% occupancy based on domestic tourist volume will be hard to run 100% operation.
Domestic tourism is a good try and will help some but most tourism will die and is more of a political sound bite by government.
Was talking to a person with lot of experience in Travel Industry and was wondering why no expert or media has picked it up - hype about domestic tourism (Good but not what is being highlighted that will solve Hospitality and Tourism Industry).
How many Kiwis will travel domestically when there is so much economic uncertainty??? 50% of kiwis are worried about their jobs.
We were planning to go to Taupo for a few nights in June, but we've pulled the pin on that due to some employment uncertainty and loss of income.
If the government want to get domestic tourism moving quicker, rather than focusing on expensive advertising campaigns and (currently) absurd ideas like 4 day working weeks, they need to do more to get the rest of the economy moving a lot quicker. They are not showing enough urgency.
The Minister of Finance needs to be telling the RBNZ to go negative on the OCR - NOW. That power exists.
Our economy is going to be screwed by August unless they take extraordinary measures.
They are in their own little bubbles.
Domestic tourism isn't going to replace international, but where else are New Zealanders going to holiday while the borders are closed?
To be honest there's never been a better time if you're still financial, lots of specials and as uncrowded as it used to be (years ago).
A taste of what will happen to NZ tourism based areas.
I used to refer to Dubai as Du-bubble. The bubble actually popped quite some time ago, but the place was still a center of flashy Anglo-Saxon ideals about how an economy should be (with the ubiquitous cheap slaves running everything while the well-dressed Westerner from CBRE hopped from project to the next project). Yes, there are some parallels to QT.
Ray Dalio's latest. I haven't read yet, that is for later today. They are usually worth it, if a bit long winded.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio…
Offence is the best form of difference- Check how China acts now on border issue with its neighbour and act on Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea and go offensive with trade restrictions on Australia and bully any other country that does not toe it's dictate.
Time to reset...though late but it is better to be late than never.
Stuart786786 just saw this news article
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/us-slams-chinas-disturbing-behaviour-a…
Read Ray Dalio's latest...America is on the slide and China is on the rise. We might all be speaking mandarin in a few decades. Naturally China is testing its strength and place in the world. I don't have a problem with that as it is exactly what our western culture has done, has been doing for 100's of years. Are we special and can set the rules alone?
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4D12AQEMxf0wCupQCA/article-inli…
the Dutch a) became more indebted, b) had a lot of internal fighting over wealth (between its states/provinces, between the rich and the poor, and between political factions)[2], and c) had a weakened military—so the Dutch were weak and divided, which made them vulnerable to attack
China may be able to verthrow/replace governments in minor tinpot nations or closely related areas, but they will never be able to do that to an entire populace used to being free.
Just look at the time and mess, they have with HK, Taiwan, Tibet, and all the other Chinese "Claimed" territories.
Imagine if they actually tried it on with South Korea, Japan, Phillipines? Let alone a liberal western nation.
It would make the US's time in Vietnam look like a well loved family holiday.
Amazing how a thread of 62 comments can start with a clever analogy about banning alcohol, and putting the very immediate issue of civil rights in NZ, which I agree, for 30 years or more, have been constantly eroded, to a focus on HK, Taiwan and the CCP. How we need to deal with such lack of freedom in other parts of the world, even talk of being prepared to go to war?!!
Unbelievable.
Has to happen. The comment about China ascending misses the point that there isn't enough planet left for another Empire, not even with belt, road, braces and buckle.
So in the big picture, we either collapse globally, or we go to macro war over 'what's left' (remembering that what's left is the dregs; we're used the best). I've been watching nothing else for a decade, and I still wouldn't pick either outcome.
But the one I'd put money on, is no re-start of 'global growth'. That was debt-induced, draw-down-induced smoke and mirrors fro the last decade, and is now in ICU. The joke is that, understanding that, one doesn't waste one's time betting 'money'.
Don't you think war would almost certainly go nuclear? In which case conventional forces become quite irrelevant.
I don't think the USA would tolerate a Taiwan invasion. Maybe the UN would be the first step. It should be - although with Don in charge you never know.
China would be almost totally ostracised and isolated - surely - if it invaded Taiwan.
It would simply be a suicidal move. Which is why they haven't done it.
And why - one would think - they wouldn't do it. The Chinese leaders are atheist, or so my understanding goes. So it's not like they would see some destiny in heaven for starting a world ending WW3. Unlike perhaps some fundamental Christians or Muslims.
Great powers always have and always will play war games, some more than others.
For all their positive rhetoric and bluster, the Chinese are very realist in their abilities. I do not see them starting an open war with any nation.
They appear to have 3 main MOs
1. Buy out smaller highly dependent nations. (Pacific, Africa)
2. Buy influence/infiltrate larger democratic nations.
3. Poke until provoked, i.e. make the foreign nation appear to be in the wrong.
The way I see it, they are proving rather successful at 1, hitting some roadblocks with 2 (Mainly as they appear to have the covert abilities of Maxwell Smart in hiding their wider ambitions), and 3 is still up in the air with HK/Taiwan.
Ultimately, if provoked they will of course fight, but I don't see it ending well for them.
As for Nuclear, I doubt I will live to see a Nation State use them pre-emptively. It would be a message to strong for anyone to ignore, and my guess is the retaliation would be globally unanimous.
Being ex-military; we don't have an airforce. We have a maritime defence force with utterly minimal strike capability and only if the opposition can't throw tomatoes back at us. We can thank Helen Clark for that, and successive governments for their neglect. If some one tries to invade us, we have literally no defence other than going bush and fighting a guerrilla war, but then we have just surrendered all our weapons because of an Aussie nutter. So we need to ask Maori to teach us the fine are of toa, learn how to wield taiaha, mere and patu.
Not altogether a bad ending going bush. Back to where it all started..subsistence living. Sadly with thermal, night vision infrared, drones and the lack of counter surveillance capability in the bush, the bush is just another grassy field for any occupying force. If New Zealand sustained a direct assault we would all be toast. A non-hostile occupation (if negotiated in surrender terms) may provide an opportunity to go bush. Would be a bit like a barefoot highway though with so many capable kiwi's all rushing to the bush at once. Imagine how civil bush life would really be.
The weapons buy back was a distaster, there's still 3/4 of the pre Christchurch semi automatic weapons in the hands of kiwis. Per capita we're amongst the most numerous gun owners in the world. There's talk going around that the buy back was used by many as a chance to hand in their old junk and upgrade. This is apparent in the recent news where gun stores are completely down on stock. In a guerilla style conflict we'd probably do quite well once we figured out how to mitigate, and repurpose attack drones.
Yes. It's all very cynical. I've long felt that most NZers see Chinese people only existing to pay silly amounts of money for sketchy education, tours and houses. Now that it all appears to have gone pear shaped (through no fault of the individual Chinese people), it's time to go rabid on them.
I disagree. We were all supporting China's growth and were glad that they were escaping poverty. People have had a lot of respect for Chinese people and culture for a long time. This, however has turned to disappointment, when, once they started getting wealthy, the CCP's priority has turned from escaping poverty to becoming aggressive to their neighbours, using the wealth to obliterate endangered species, invading Tibet, imprisoning the Uyghurs and now covering up viruses leaked from one of their own labs. Personally, I feel very let down and thought they were better than that.
Unfortunately we're at that point in history again. War is somewhat inevitable from here given the impending scramble to claw back whats left of the resources and productivity we've sold into the future with the global credit bubble. The impending austerity will sharpen us like a knife. As the post-modernism thinking which led to neo-liberalism crumbles, we'll see whats really underneath, and that will inform where we collectively cut with our new found sharpness.
This is gonna Herz the US economy a lot. Just a mere 19 billion...in debt. Just put it on the credit card..
They did.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349487/Hertz-preparing-file-b…
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