Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news Hong Kong's unique free status hangs in the balance today.
But first up today, the OECD sees nothing but red ahead. It said the world's major economies will see their debt-to-GDP ratio rise to near 140% and will add US$17 tln in new debt to their public obligations as sharply declining tax revenues come when emergency borrowing zooms higher.
Two weekend events illustrate the trouble. Hertz declared bankruptcy, and freight-forwarder Kuehne+Nagel said it will cut more than 20,000 jobs. And then there was a uniquely American coronavirus response: mass firings via Zoom by WeightWatchers.
Today's focus is shifting to Hong Kong where Beijing is cracking down with a new security law. That will likely draw an American response by revoking the territory's "special status" under US law, a move that would have far-reaching trade and investment implications. A rapid de-camp to Singapore is the most likely result, one that might effectively weaken China's "Greater Bay Area" initiative. It also drew thousands on to the streets in protest, this time met with Beijing-style aggressive police tactics. Media reporting the protests are facing Beijing's heavy hand.
The Hong Kong stock market closed -5.6% lower on Friday on the news. Shanghai took an almost -2% tumble too. Interestingly, the Singapore market got no bounce, also down by -2.1% yesterday. Messy separations help nobody, it seems.
And China is no longer saying its efforts to unify Taiwan will be 'peaceful'.
However, it looks like China is backing away from "iron ore inspections" that the Australian's were taking as a signal of China's displeasure with them. The sigh of Aussie relief masks the rising restrictions on Aussie agricultural exports to China.
And, as expected, China isn't setting a GDP growth target this year.
But it is rolling out more huge stimulus support. An extra NZ$650 bln will be delivered to local governments with specific instructions that the funds be spent on bolstering employment, upholding basic living standards and supporting private companies, through reductions in rental costs and subsidies for consumption. It will cut taxes and fees by NZ$800 bln. Local governments will raise vast amounts of new debt. They have already raised NZ$325 bln of pandemic related bonds. Now they are being told to raise another NZ$1.2 tln in special-purpose bonds, a level almost double what they raised last year which itself seemed eye-watering back then.
In Japan, they have just rolled out a new NZ$1 tln plan to bolster struggling businesses. Commercial banks are set to receive a credit guarantee of up to 100% on zero-interest, no-security loans to small and medium-sized businesses hit by the pandemic, and backed by their central bank who will lend the banks the necessary funds.
And Japan is about to lift quarantine restrictions in Tokyo and some other parts of Japan as the number of new cases there dives to near-zero.
In a move that took markets by surprise, the Reserve Bank of India cut their benchmark repo rate by -40 basis points to 4.0%, the second cut this year. India is battling a huge surge in unemployment arising from the pandemic. More than 120 mln workers, most of them small traders and daily wage earners, lost jobs in April as economic activity all but ceased after a nationwide lockdown.
In Europe, their car industry is facing mounting job losses. The French Government warned Renault could disappear if it didn't get help soon. And Nissan was considering 20,000 cuts, with many in Europe. And an Indian-owned British car maker is on its knees.
It's coming up to the long Memorial Day weekend in the US, so markets will close until Wednesday our time.
In Australia, there has been an arithmetic error of humourously large proportions - AU$60 bln. A "significant error" in the JobKeeper application form meant that instead of supporting 6.5 mln workers and costing AU$130 bln over six months, that job support program is now expected to support 3.5 mln people and cost AU$70 bln.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 5,360,800 and up +192,000 from this time Saturday, which is rising at a faster pace than recently. "Opening up" isn't helping.
Now, just over 30% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +43,000 since this time Saturday to 1,633,000. This is an unchanged rate of increase. US deaths are now exceed 97,000. Global deaths now exceed 344,000. Canada infection levels are now higher than China's. Brazil is now the second highest infected nation, passing Russia, but both are experiencing surges. The UK surge isn't abating either and it now has three times as many cases as China.
In Australia, there are now 7109 cases (+13 since Saturday), 102 deaths (+1) and a recovery rate of just over 91% (unchanged). 36 people are in hospital there (-6) with 5 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 501 active cases in Australia (-9).
There were no new local cases again yesterday, leaving the total at 1504 identified as either confirmed (1154) or probable (350). Twenty-one people have died here in total. There is still only one person left in hospital with the disease, and they are not in ICU. Our recovery rate is still just under 97%, with only 27 people known to be still fighting the infection here (-1).
The UST 10yr yield will open the week at 0.66% and probably hold this level till Wednesday when Wall Street returns from its Memorial Day holiday weekend. Their 2-10 curve is at +49 bps. Their 1-5 curve is at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is +56 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is down -1 bp to 0.87%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.61%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is similarly unchanged at 0.62%.
The gold price is little-changed to start the week, down just -US$2 to US$1,733/oz.
Oil prices are soft today, but only marginally. The US crude price is now just over US$33/bbl. The international oil price is just over US$35/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is a little firmer rising slightly to 61.1 USc and +160 bps higher than this time last week. On the cross rates we are holding at 93.5 AUc and a +100 bps weekly gain. Against the euro we are also holding at 56 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at 67.1 but up +2.2% for the week.
Bitcoin is opening the week softer, down -2.8% to US$8,939 since where we left it on Saturday, and down -7.7% over the past week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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156 Comments
Perhaps saying (TV new last night) that one of the priorities for the new Muller Opposition was to try to get the borders open with China as soon as possible was not a first-up good idea?
I guess it fits the narrative of having one's beaming photograph taken, shaking hands with The Chairman, quite well.
@BW C'mon ....you are behaving like a CNN journo ..........Todd Muller never said that , he simply suggested that they should "discuss opening with borders China and what that may look like "
And he is right , at some point we are going to have to open our borders to China , and while we have no idea when that may be , its a discussion we have to have
@pocketaces , agreed ....The CCP are just awful , and we have become dependent on them .
The disengagement from China should be planned and orderly , and reducing our dependence on them should be part of a long term strategy
Right now , we need them , and we have done this to ourselves
China plays on Greed and Fear and have been successful so far.
In NZ Greed will prevent anyone to go against China despite their Dictatorship regime. Many politicans and Rich business houses and people / people in high post are directly or indirectly beneficerrary of their genorisity / money and now are in No posistion to upset their master.
Corona Virus may be an opportunity to reset - short term pain for long term gain but again so many in decession making body are indebted / oblige to serve their interest and in no posistion to upset their masters in China but world has taken a note and China now stands exposed so NZ can either use this opportunity to reset along with other countries or be prepared to be a colony of China for ever.
It is not the "rich" that are the problem, wealthy families usually just want to preserve their wealth and handle the transfer to the next generations. The glib generalisations that seek to divide us are very, very dangerous.
It is the drug rat lines and political apologists and lefty media bias (because it seeks to divide us into us and them) that are the most dangerous.
You accuse others of generalization but end up doing the same yourself , so I take it that you can consider all lefties loonies ? What is a leftie ?
By inference Right will always be right and can do no wrong ? Left media ? I listen to TV 3 morning show with Duncan, Richardson , Mike Hosking on radio , read NZ Herald political editor Barry Soper and Heather , all I see is biased populist unfounded commentary that seems to promote National and these media people behave as KNOW ALL experts whether it is politics, science, medicine, engineering etc
I dont identify with Labour, National, left or right , just common sense to know no one is perfect. I voted for both parties.
It is unfortunately the likes of John Key who spent in time in power doing everything he could to suck up to the Chinese, not implement a foreigner buyer ban, and then sell his luxury home to a Chinese buyer that makes your argument difficult to sell Roger Witherspoon. Perhaps his behaviour was an anomoly...but probably not.
Yeah, Emperor Xi came to power in late 2012, up to then (and in fact for another year afterwards when regressive changes started to come in) there was a lot of reason to hope for gradual liberalization/westernization of China that had come from economic engagement with China. But engagement has now obviously failed as a path to making China a liberal democracy. Time for world to disengage with repressive and belligerent rulers of China
I have no problem with foreigners buying newly built houses ......for goodness sake its not as if they can take them anywhere .
And by buying houses for rental , they are supplying the market with rental stock , which the Government cannot and never will be able to to on any meaningful scale
The one thing I try to bear in mind when talking about foreigners owning real estate of any kind is; they can never take it away. Unlike most physical resources like, oil, coal, gold, wood, land can't be put on a ship and taken away. So of all the things were sell land is a special category.
Not that I am advocating a free for all, but it is important to remember land cannot be stripped from us.
No but they can take capital from the country. So for example if a bunch of foreign buyers purchased here over the last 10 years and now sell and take the capital gains (hundreds of thousands of dollars per property) back to their home country and sell to a FHB, that capital goes offshore and our young New Zealanders are left holding the debt. Great for them, terrible for us. Could be wrong and happy to be corrected.
Yes they can, but if housing pricing was to slump (or be flat) they can also sell it back to us after ten years at cost (or less) having paid rates (and maybe GST) for ten years.
Remember at least one third of all "gains" in property values are nothing more than inflation.
There is no time like the present, tomorrow will be too late as we will be far too entangled with them. In order to carry on dealing with them to our "advantage" we are going to have to keep kowtowing, and that is not where we should go imho.
What a shame the likes of many of us were not listened to when Shanghai Pengxin got the nod to buy Crafar Farms, what is unfolding now, is precisely what we were warning against. We just got tossed aside and called xenophobes. The longer we stay entwined with them the harder it will be to get out.
It will come obvious to China if we start slowly moving away and their response will not be nice, might as well just get on with it, because they will retaliate.
correct it will need to be measured as there are some very very big companies in NZ under chinese ownership, which we will need to rely on for any sort of recovery, and those who think otherwise are kidding themselves. SilverFern Farms, Westland dairy, Oceania Dairy, Waste management NZ, PGG Wrightsons..and the list goes on and on..
He did say it. You can watch it here - https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-national-leader-says-he….
Asked about open borders, he responded "I think it needs to be an absolute priority. Number one, Australia. Number two, in my view, China. It is an absolutely critical market"
Well , I also dislike China , but we have allowed ourselves to become the calf at the Chinese udder .
We should never have allowed ourselves to get so close the China , but now we need to start trading again .
That said , we do need to diversify away from China over the next 5 years
He's supposed to be a politician and diplomat - our alternative Prime Minister.
There a time and place to say all sorts of things, but last night was neither to be bringing China up, given what's going on in the World.
Poor judgement, and let's hope it isn't a pattern of things to come - or we may as well have stuck with Bridges.
It was more likely the case of the parade-ground drill
A Sergeant-Major is taking a platoon of 22 grunts through their paces, marching in formation, up one end of the parade-ground, turning and marching back again, and again. Then, with them standing at attention, he barks out a command asking for a volunteer for latrine duties. There is silence for a moment and in perfect precision 21 soldiers step backwards two paces,
Not a fair analysis. Muller likely understood he was an unknown for most of the country, so needs time to put his mark on things. Being neutral in mind, i was interested in his first TVNZ interview and came away impressed. He is much more personable and presentable the SB ever was as a leader and in politics in a democracy that is hugely important as we well know. Now i wait for substance. Credible policies, and differentiation from what Labour are doing. I am interested in his small business interest as 80% of NZs employment comes from that, but also COVID19 has taught us a lot about our resilience and inequities. I am interested to see what he has to offer. The media will be important here too, as they need to ask hard questions, challenge him but importantly report in a balanced, analytical way.
I am not sure he will have all that much to offer. It is the curse of being a "Party". Ultimately he is a figurehead (some would even argue a Puppet), granted he may be more relatable/personable, but it is the people behind him that determine everything - and they have not changed.
The likely rise in prominence of Jerry and Judith should raise massive red flags with the voting public.
It will be a great election for the average citizen. Incompetence (Labour) v Negligence (National).
The sooner we can open the borders and get out of here the better.
I am keen to hear Muller's views on the international student industry and immigration. Prior to becoming an MP, Muller worked in executive positions in Apata (Kiwifruit packing company near Katikati) and Zespri, part of the kiwifruit industry that has to extent ridden on the back of large scale immigration of indian "pseudo" students, cheap imported labour, and dodgy indian contract labour suppliers. Labour government has attempted to crack down on this. Has Muller and the National Party changed its policies on this issue since the 2017 election, or will we see a reversion to National's previous failed policies?
China and Australia are our biggest trading partners , and we need to normalize our trading patterns, or discuss how and when this will happen.
We are already " in discussions " with Australia , so thats not an issue .
We are in serious trouble in our economy , its coming , we know this , and we need to have a discussion about normalizing our trading patterns.
If we dont then things could be a lot worse
I'm happy you feel safe here.
Do you find it difficult living here knowing NZ's history and alliances to the likes of the US and Australia when your views appear to be pro China? I'm not saying they are mutually exclusive positions to take, but they could be if a conflict with China were to arise.
Do you think we can find agreements that will work for all countries, and if we could, what would they look like in your view?
You are right that living in a 5 eye country while pro-China is not mutually exclusive.
Every country has some sorts of 'shameful' history. We honour them, learn from them and prevent same shameful things from happening again.
The biggest limitation of the Western culture is monotheism, blood or race based view of the world, and everyone should go my way.
While Chinese's view of the world is that it is not only mine but also yours. There should not be only one way and whatever suits you is the best. Chinese culture is much much much more opening.
Quite contrary, CCP's achievement has never been matched in the entire human history and probably will never be surpassed by another party.
Here is a list:
-eliminate poverty in 2020
-raise 1.4bn people and a strong economy
-become a front runner in term of advanced tech and contributor to a better future for entire human race
- and on and on...
CCP is amzing.
To actually eliminate poverty would be quite the achievement, were it true.
A strong economy has been achieved before many times in history.
USA was a front runner in tech history when the CCP was starving millions to death in what it called a 'Great Leap Forward', so that's not new either.
Perhaps they will eliminate poverty, perhaps not. But I am usually sceptical about the claims of totalitarian regimes that control information, lest I be found as gullible as the socialist intellectuals of the 1930's, who genuinely believed there was a workers paradise in the USSR. A lie sustained by removing the truth from circulation.
P.S. Do you have news about a better future for entire human race from the Uyghur internment camps xingmowang?
CCP is not amazing
The Communist Party of China has played (and is still playing) a pivotal role which results in the absolute shitshow we are in right now. And that shitshow has created a sinophobic resentment in some countries and endangered the ethnic Chinese population living in those places. Having said that, disasters like COVID19 are inevitable with CCP since their only appetite is to remain in power at all cost, like all authoritarians through history. To do so, they are always to silence different voices, and go hard on ethnic Chinese people (foreign and domestic) who dare to say No and ask Why.
CCP will not hesitate to sacrifice ethnic Chinese diasporas for their political agendas when needed. United Front is like another version of Volksdeutsche if you like. So be careful what you wish for
Hate the party not the people. The Chinese need liberalizing PRC leadership to lift their lives - as all their near neighbours have shown how bad a job the Chinese govt is doing of lifting people out of poverty. Also, China's populations is likely closer to 1.3 billion than 1.4 (PRC lying as usual): https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-…
Interesting post - thanks xingmowang.
By no means do I think western culture is the way forward and having lived in a America there is a lot to like and dislike about their culture, values and foreign policy.
It would appear that the US is on the decline (in my view) and China is on the rise. I hope the CCP are the force for good (and for the world and not just the Chinese people) that you suggest.
They aren't, they seek total control. That does not suggest any sort of good to me. Ask the people of HK or Taiwan and where they see their right to self determination will go under the CCP.
PS USA is just as bad where controlling stuff goes. I'd like to be rid of both of them
NZs historic alliances may have been with USA and Australia but I hear more Chinese accents than Aussie or American in my neighbourhood. Immigration can change a country. I used to live in Scotland - that was named after an Irish tribe, and then lived in England named after the North German Angles as is France where my son is a citizen but he is half Breton - the Bretons who settled the coast of Brittany came from Wales. Try Taiwan - now higher percentage Han Chinese than the mainland - it took 500 years of colonisation. There are very few static places where the people have lived for centuries without being displaced. Ask the Maori or the Tibetans.
FB did you read the comment I responded to? For the record I dislike extremely the CCPs current practices to Uighers, to Hong Kong, to Taiwan, to Nepal. I dislike the fact that they are a dictatorship currently in the process of putting in place an infrastructure that allows them to maintain absolute control over their population. And I agree with much of the sentiment here that China, today through the CCP, is a significant threat to us in the Pacific basin overtly and covertly.
But much of the debate in the forum is nuanced. For example I appreciate Xing's comments above about Chinese culture. But I also understand that culture and Government are not always the same thing. Indeed Xing's comment here appears to be at odds with some of his other comments in other articles about how good the CCP Government is. He seems to think they are great, yet is unable to see or acknowledge that their actions go against what he has described as being Chinese culture.
But US and Aussie do have clout together. 5 Eyes will never willingly let Belt Road initiative come to fruitition. A move into HK sees a redeployment into Singapore - which has stayed flat at this possibility - too many existing interconnections? And China must now face rising ASEAN polarity to what many will see as its expansion. China may find that it wins the battle, but what will it cost them?
Hardly.
Slightly over a decade ago at a U.S.-Chinese “Track II” meeting in Beijing, American participants were reported to have pressed their Chinese counterparts about the limits of China’s nuclear no-first-use (NFU) commitment. One of them raised the possibility of U.S. conventional strikes against Chinese nuclear forces: what would happen then? Would China adhere to NFU in the strictest sense, or would it use its remaining nuclear weapons to retaliate against a conventional counterforce attack? One of the Chinese participants, a retired senior military official, is said to have responded, “Try it and see.” Link
Marshall Billingslea can bluster all he wants about spending an adversary into oblivion. The reality is that the US is not prepared, politically or economically, to engage in any new arms race predicated on open-ended budgetary support.
In the Cold War, it was the Soviet Union playing catch-up to US superiority in the field of ballistic missile technology. Today the tables have been turned. Any arms race will find the US operating from a disadvantage right out of the gate, with Russia already fielding the kind of fifth-generation missiles the US has yet to design, let alone produce.
Billingslea is right about one thing—if the US were to engage in an arms race with an adversary where cost was not a limiting factor, the result would, in fact, be oblivion. But the victim would be the US, not Russia or China. Link
That's very interesting Audaxes. The CCP old guard haven't gone anywhere. And US, despite its bluster has in many ways an isolationist position economically - but is it more than sabre rattling with Trump? Time he (and we) learnt the difference between reality tv and reality. But how to de-escalate? And what role could the honest broker of NZ play, or do we get friendly with ASEAN and play possum?
i think that is a mistake in delivery, when they are talking opening borders im sure they mean with the 14 day isolation still in effect, plus assure us you dont have covid before boarding, maybe a test day before, temp checking and mask wearing on planes.
but they did not put forward how they would open the borders carefully so come across as a reckless idea after what we have achieved here
to be fair there are countries/states we could open with lessor restrictions that that, ie NT and SA in Australia have no active cases and no cases for the last 14 days, countries you could open taiwan
Crossing over to Communisium some how I do not understand. So communists do not value human life in your view. I think not, it is the communist leaders that have made serious mistakes in that respect. We could throw religion into the group that dose not value human life if that is the way you think.
The world can not look after the existing people it has let alone a bunch more that it can not care for that become dependent on the state and vote left to better their cause. Jacinda wants to save everyone and that is her down fall because she can not save everyone, it is impossible.
As soon as people have no further intelligent argument they go for the 'communist' argument. I've had it quite a few times on here, while at the same time I buy and sell shares making the most of the capitalist system we function under. Throwing stones in the wrong direction.
Given your earlier statement, supporting the breach human rights I suppose this should not surprise anyone.
It is by far the easiest and laziest way to abandon rational argument and escape 100 years of historical facts.
And as all students of history know, socialism has a small mountain of factual atrocities to escape from.
You are preaching human rights but we all know religion has done more than it's fair share of damage in this world. It is still recent history that the catholic church actively protected pedophiles. If an organization wants to be the pillar of society they must act accordingly. They have not!
Tax religion, it is a bussiness and they must pay like everybody else.
Muller has an intriguing start. The media is undoubtedly spinning the "middle-aged white male" narrative by focusing on his MAGA cap. Some people have already called him racists or even white-supremacist on social media, literally for nothing. Meanwhile, the same cap may have already attracted many voters who usually give their votes to NZF. It's like a double-edged sword to Muller. Nats have built this loyal new migrants voter bases through Key and English's years (Blue Dragon and Blue Turban, for instance), so Muller will need to be very careful on his narrative on things like immigration and the relationship with China etc.
The change in rhetoric may well be significant though. Taiwan has a security guarantee from the US, even though Trump may not be all that reliable in this. The action in Hong Kong may be scaring the CCP enough about the possibility of it spreading that they are becoming more hardline to send a message out.
Yes. Sell our agri/hort products to a Singapore market and don't be bothered if a Singaporese trader relabels and sells them to China. The bigger question is what if synthetic milk becomes cheaper and healthier than our product? It is likely. Then all that friendship and Kowtowing will suddenly be meaningless.
NZ should be keeping an arms length trading relationship with China. NZ keep exporting our primary produce, and China products continue to be sold in Briscoes, The Warehouse, etc. But this must not be on the quid pro quo basis (i.e. selling our sovereignty) that NZ is compelled to support the Belt & Road (Chinese Imperial/Hegemonic) project, or permit distortion of NZ property market by Chinese investment, or political meddling in NZ via Chinese United Front in NZ, or allow Chinese political influence (e.g. via donations/funding) in the NZ political system, or allow Chinese companies to gain control or vertical integration in our key industries.
@Ezy , QE will simply distort things further , we actually need a good hard recession , and then start again again , not print our way out of our mess .
QE led to asset bubbles , and its reflating share prices as we speak . Printing our way out of problems is just stupid. , it will come back to bite us , as it is doing right now from the last QE
Our Politicians love the word "reset " and a good recession , which is a normal part of an economic cycle , is the most efficient "reset"
Yep - I had a chuckle at 'normal part of a business cycle' from Boatman, above. Linear thinking still; this boat is still afloat. Not sure what kind of boatman he is, but those of us who do long-haul self-sufficient passaging don't think like that, we think strategically.
@PDK Chuckle as you may , but factually recessions are the often unpredictable part of any normal business cycle .........we just dont know exactly when they will occur or how bad it may be.
It is argued by some economists that a recession can enable the economy to more productive in the long term. A recession tends to be a shock and inefficient firms may go out of business, but post the recession – new firms can emerge
If we knew when they were coming , we would all be very wealthy .
In any economy there are Boom and Bust cycles , and its a fact of life , we know this since records of economic activity have been kept .
The signs are often visible for those willing to see them , and its Governments job to try and minimise the negative fallout , and allow for a "reset "
Recessions can be a healthy event, as long as we recover successfully
"Commercial banks are set to receive a credit guarantee of up to 100% on zero-interest, no-security loans to small and medium-sized businesses hit by the pandemic, and backed by their central bank who will lend the banks the necessary funds."
Wow. Zombie companies abound! Let's hope they do this in NZ, I might just have to crank up an old company of mine, claim I am doing a massive expansion, then just buy a few dozen houses. No interest, so free money. Sweet.
At the moment he and National are half pregnant and don't know if they want a boy or a girl when it comes to foreign policy.
I think at the moment he'd have much more political success in NZ if he were to take the Donald Trump stance towards China and attract that right-wing vote. Otherwise I'm lost as to what National stand for.
You know, in some ways I think that boat has passed on the intergenerational / gender fronts. Part of the Nats problem with brand Jacinda is that they look and sound like boomers. Which is fine if you're in that camp, but the demographic is dwindling and there's no new blood.
Indeed.
I think most of NZ is in la-la land in terms of what is in front of us. very much akin to the turkeys clucking away happily in November...
The way treasury and govt are behaving, they are in la-la land too. However, I suspect that they can't be that dumb, and are portraying a positive looking short-mid term economic future for devious political purposes.
The key driver of recessions is sentiment. If govt can convince everyone that things are OK so that they keep being good little consumers and don't stop spending then recession will be less severe. So just look at Govt announcements in this regard as a propaganda exercise.
There is some truth in consumer confidence, but the reality of unemployment will trump that in the end.
Hard to buy into propaganda when you can't pay rent.
The risk then is the government chooses random groups of people to blame, like bankers, landlords etc. Anyone but themselves.
For what it's worth, these are my views on the political landscape, over the next 4 months, and then the next 3 years:
Next 4 months:
I think National will make up quite a lot of ground on Labour. I think they are an 'outside chance' to win the election, but that will only be a possibility if: Muller / Kaye perform extremely well, they come up with some compelling policy, and the economy sinks and sinks.
75% chance of a Labour victory.
Next 3 years:
Assuming that Labour win the election, I think in their next term we will see their incompetence borne out further, especially on the economic front.
The housing and infrastructure promises won't be delivered upon - and that will spell economic trouble.
I think they will slump in popularity by mid-term, and there will be no coming back.
National to win the next election (not sure who the leader will be).
Interesting review in The Guardian of a new book by David Frum (former George W Bush staffer) called Trumpocalypse ... sheds a whole new light on an American granted citizenship by John-Key-look-at-me and his bunch of financial masterminds.
Trumpocalypse quotes Peter Thiel, an early Trump supporter, who sees democracy at odds with his libertarian ideals. Thiel has written that he “no longer believes that freedom and democracy are compatible”.
Thiel blames this decoupling on the “extension of the franchise to women”. He also contends that the welfare state has “rendered the notion of ‘capitalist democracy’ into an oxymoron”.
Lets hope Todd Mullers love of all things American doesn't see a repeat of this sort of crap.
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