Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the Europeans have thrown the kitchen sink at their economic problems.
But first, the latest update for new unemployment claims in the US records almost +1.9 mln taking the level of "insured unemployed" to 20.5 mln. Millions more are uninsured. The new claims are slightly above what was expected for last week (+1.8 mln). The non-farm payrolls report out tomorrow will give a fuller picture of the giant American labour market.
US employers announced almost 400,000 layoffs in May, a sharp reduction from the almost 700,000 in April. So far in 2020 there have been company announcements of almost 1.5 mln layoffs. Of course, announced layoffs are just a fraction of actual layoffs, but the trend is clear. In all of 2019, announced layoffs totalled 590,000.
The American trade balance got sharply worse in April, taking it back to year-ago levels. Clearly tariffs don't work to fix this problem. Their deficit with China increased -US$9 bln to -US$26.0 bln in April. For the year to date, the US is running a -US$76 bln deficit their largest with any country. Overall, US exports fell -30% from the same month a year ago, and their imports fell -20% on the same basis. The 2020 trade situation is getting more out of balance for them although it had improved marginally in earlier months.
In China, loan deferrals for struggling SMEs are gathering pace. Up to 15 May 2020, Chinese banks provided deferrals on ¥1.3 tln yuan in principal repayments, involving 750,000 borrowers.
In Hong Kong, crowds are gathering to mark the Tiananmen Square massacre anniversary despite an official ban. Police have not intervened so far. If they don't, it is sure to infuriate Beijing.
Indonesian motor bike sales fell a massive -80% in May, year-on-year. Indonesia tops India as the world's largest motorbike market.
The ECB said it would scale up its bond-purchase program by almost double to nearly €1.4 tln, a move that puts its stimulus effort in line with the US Fed.
Germany has followed France to use a multi-billion-euro recovery plan to support an electric car switch, while SUVs face higher taxes.
In Australia, data out yesterday revealed that retail sales plunged a record -18% in April, while strong iron ore prices delivered a +AU$8.8 bln trade surplus on top of the +AU$10.4 bln surplus in March.
An alliance of Australasian experts has lodged a comprehensive blueprint for the resumption of ‘safe’ trans-Tasman travel with the New Zealand and Australian Prime Ministers, recommending multiple layers of protection to be embedded across the passenger journey
Japan is getting ready to relax quarantine regulations for business visitors soon, and the first list of countries that will be exempted are Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand.
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 6,573,300 which is up +135,000 in a day, still rising at a faster pace than recently.
Now, just over 28% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +22,000 since this time yesterday to 1,862,000. This is a similar rate of increase and the spread isn't abating. US deaths are now exceed 108,000. Global deaths now exceed 388,000.
In Australia, there have been 7240 cases (+11 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just under 92% (unchanged). 23 people are in hospital there (-2) with 4 in ICU (-1). There are now 474 active cases in Australia (-13).
There were zero cases again yesterday in New Zealand, so now only one person is left with it in the whole country. We are now at thirteen days with zero new cases.
The iron ore price is ignoring official Chinese warnings about a frenzy and is higher yet again today, and on high volumes of trades. Thermal coal prices are being ignored by buyers, dropping to ten year lows. Mines are shutting.
The UST 10yr yield is up again, today up another +5 bps at 0.81%. Their 2-10 curve has steepened to +62 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +23 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is now at +69 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is up another +7 bps to 1.08%. The China Govt 10yr is up too, by another +2 bps to 2.85%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also firmer, up +2 bps to 0.93%.
The gold price has made back most of what it dropped yesterday, today rising +US$21 to US$1,721/oz.
Oil prices are higher today. The US crude price is up about +US$1 to just on US$37.50/bbl. The Brent price is up to nearly US$40/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar has risen further. We are now just on 64.5 USc and a new fifteen week high. On the cross rates we are to 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we have actually slipped back bit to 56.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has moved up slightly to 69.2.
Bitcoin is higher than this time yesterday by +2.4% at US$9,810. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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153 Comments
Exports down 20%+ and 10% less and lowering earning power on what's left as our dollar strengthens. Awful drought through our farming sector. And who knows the real stats in unemployment with anyone who still has an earning partner ineligible for assistance. Break out the champagne for the new rockstar economy everyone!
Yes..I asked the Coromandel councilors' to consider a pay cut of 10% because they wanted to increase our rates by 10% this year due to mismanagement of funds. It seems there was no discussion of that at their latest meeting, although they suggested a hiring freeze so that they didn't bloat the bureaucracy even more. Decent of them. I hear only a 4% increase now. Probably because they think all our wages have gone up by 4% this year?
American airlines up currently 42 percent in ONE session. Is AAL the Bellwether of the American and world economies, I think so. Also not great news for warren buffett and co who famously spruiked/spooked the market with news just one month ago "Billionaire investor Warren Buffett says his company Berkshire Hathaway has sold all of its shares in the four largest US airlines."
I didn't compare myself to warren buffett so stop misconstruing. As I said it's not great news for him and his shareholders as they have ridden the stock all the way to the bottom from the sounds of it. And if warren buffet makes a big announcement and is then wrong am I allowed to point it out without warren buffet fans getting upset? I have also said other things in my comment that you ignore and just zero in on the part you can make a big deal over.
It's awesome you would look for the owner and I'm sure I would do the same. It was a bad example, perhaps imagine someone was handing out money and you only had to reach out. It's been very much like that on the nz bourse and around the world this past two months since the recovery started. I feel for those who were in aggressive funds and they switched to conservative after the damage was already done.
Why did the orange chicken cross the road? Because he's been hiding in a bunker.
Things aren't going well economically in the US at the moment and it's easy to see why, let hope he gets voted out by November. News clip Anderson Cooper 360: https://twitter.com/AC360/status/1267622609367203842
It looks like Biden might not get the nod to stand against Trump. A high percentage of Democrat senator want Cuomo's brother to stand. I think they might think Sleepy Joe might not remember his name when the election heats up. The Democratic hierarchy are getting very twitchy. It doesn't matter anyway, Trump and Cindy are going to win by landslides.
I hear this Sleepy Joe thing a lot, but he's made some quite strong statements around the recent protests and police brutality - I was impressed. He sounded far more like a leader than Trump ever has.
I also note he's moved into clear favourite to be next president according to Betfair - implied 50% chance of winning vs Trump's 42% chance. He's also tightened in the Democratic Nominee market - he's been hovering around 85-90% for a while but is now at 94%. The rest of the market is largely Hilary Clinton at 3%.
Wherever your information is from, the guys with the money don't believe it yet.
No, that's not the one I was thinking of. But, given the airtime his gaffs tend to have I was pleasantly surprised by his recent speeches. It's a shame the election is shaping up to be a tallest dwarf competition, but it's important to pay attention to Biden's good moments as well as his mistakes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=en3KaDlUtZE especially from 1:20 - when has trump ever spoken as strongly and compassionately as that?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/joe-biden-philadelphia-spee…
Jacinda yes, Trump no. Why national thought a change of leadership without policy change would do it is beyond me. The thought of them removing foreign buyer ban and pumping up immigration terrifies me ( though the current mob did nothing on immigration to be happy about either).
The only thing National did is "opposition for opposition sake" I added the quote marks as this was admitted by current National Party leader Todd Muller.
But to your point:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/coronavirus-simon-bridg…
Simon was more concerned about upsetting the CCP then the health of New Zealanders. There is no way they would have had the back bone to actually bring in the changes as early as they were brought in. And right now NZ would be drowning in COVID.
Note it wasnt until mid-march until National changed their position and called for border closures, a whole six weeks after this.
Thank goodness they were / are rightfully in opposition.
And i'll point you to this:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/02/coronavirus-simon-bridg…
All well and good pointing to a release in April. But that was a flip flop from their original opposition to targetted border closures a full two months earlier.
Note now NZ has one active case. That would indicate that restrictions were brought in at exactly the right moment, especially when we compare ourselves to NZ's trading partners.
Simon and National would not have had the back bone to bring in the required closures when they happened. They would be too scared of upsetting their CCP paymasters.
Probably the only question that remains (and will go un-answered because we'll never know) is how many cases and deaths would they have been comfortable with before they eventually decided to close the border with China if they were in charge?
“a change in leadership without policy change” and behold the magician swirled his corporate blue cloak over his matching blue suit, removed his top hat, waved his wand and cast his spell, reached into the hat and crying “hey presto,” pulled out a big white china bunny.
Fundamentals were thrown under the bus quite some time ago, probably just after TARP 1 came out. From that point on it's just been about how much money the Fed prints and who can direct it into their share price most efficiently. Combine this with investors knowing year after year they are getting lower interest rates, so margin lending themselves up to the eyeballs and putting it into stocks. With the rise of ETF's, it has meant all boats rise, making it look like those investors are wizards, leveraging themselves up to greater and greater heights. You only have to look at all the investor videos on youtube to see people thinking they are brilliant investors, when they are just caught in a lucky environment where the reserve banks are printing money or lowering interest rates to further inflate their investments.
Basically it's a grand pyramid scheme, supported by huge institutions not working in the public interest. It's run by the same people that profit from it, so unlikely to change. Am amazed that people aren't actually rioting about it properly, but I guess it slips under the radar for most people.
Times up on NZF as well...our own industry lobby party with little or no morals.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121724465/government-delays-m…
If NZF’s time is up then that is a pity. The remaining choices aren’t great. The Nats will swamp the country with immigrants and sell NZ to foreign interests. Labour will sell out NZ to UN social engineering and want to run your life. Only NZF has the middle road of practical policies for NZ. But they need some new blood.
I was being a little tongue in cheek. I did vote for them at the last election and may do so again, but I wish they'd stick more to the environmental issues - last election we got very distracted by benefits issues. Frankly, I care more about the environmental issues than the human issues - we're not the ones doing it tough judging by the ever-increasing population.
It's bloody awful. The 100 Day legislative agenda would be the most radical this country has ever seen. People need to keep in mind that something as severe as L4 lockdown achieved what the Greens think is a bottom line for environmental issues. That's what we'd be facing in terms of employment and business activity.
It seems the fisheries minister is no better either.
Fisheries NZ Minister Stuart Nash’s decision to allow tarakihi stocks to remain overfished for the next 25 years is not environmentally sustainable, and Forest & Bird is seeking a judicial review of the decision.
The East Coast tarakihi stock has been seriously overfished. In 2018 Fisheries NZ determined that the species had been depleted to only 15% of natural (unfished) abundance. The minimum level that the stock should be fished down to is 40%, according to Fisheries NZ.
“Tarakihi is an important coastal fish, so it is very concerning it has been overfished to this extent,” says Forest & Bird Chief Executive Kevin Hague.
“This is a critically low level. There is clear Government policy that any fish stocks that are overfished to this extent must be rebuilt, and in the case of tarakihi this should happen within a maximum of 10 years.”
"In 2018, Minister Nash rightly decided that a 10-year rebuild timeframe was appropriate and that a 55% cut in commercial fishing would be needed to achieve that rebuild. He decided to take a phased approach to the rebuild, making an initial 20% cut to commercial fishing. But his 2019 decision to reduce the commercial catch by only 10% means it will now take 25 years for the stock to rebuild,” says Mr Hague.
“To make matters worse, Fisheries NZ’s modelling shows that there is only a 50% probability that with this level of fishing the stock will be able to rebuild in that 25-year timeframe.”
This is so dumb. Killing the chicken that lays the golden eggs. I can imagine if I was a very selfish elderly professional fisherman catching Tarakihi I might prefer to catch the 15% that are left. Is the Green party asleep or just too involved in their academic urban life? I thank god for Forest & Bird - maybe I ought to become a supporter.
And... https://legasea.co.nz/
Re those USA figures - there are some really insightful people out there what 'saw' this coming. Peter Drucker, who has been at the business fields since the 1950s, wrote this in his '93 book - "Post Capitalist Society'.( Swap out the rising power of that day - Japan - and insert today's riser, China, and how different are things now?)
" International economic theory is obsolete.
No matter what the administration says, by the end of this decade, the number of people working in the big three automobile companies is going to be about a third of what it is now, maybe 40 percent. And the Japanese auto companies are no longer going to grow.
I don't think there is anything the administration can do. If the administration tries to prevent the old industries from restructuring themselves around knowledge, then the work will just be shifted offshore. It's that simple.
The Japanese have shot themselves into the world economy by concentrating on productivity, while we have concentrated on innovation. But the Japanese have neglected innovation. They are now desperately trying to catch up; the results are not yet good. Now we in the US are desperately trying to catch up on productivity.
Knowledge has become the central, key resource that knows no geography. It underlies the most significant and unprecedented social phenomenon of this century. No class in history has ever risen as fast as the blue- collar worker and no class has ever fallen as fast. All within less than a century."
These sweeping statements are pretty meaningless. What do you mean by "class"? many tribal conquerors (Mongols, Arabs etc) did not have "class" as such as there were nomads without specialized division of labour. After conquering others, they surely risen much faster than any working class workers ever. And in few generations they lost everything and went back to their own way of life.
What is meant by "class". You are right that is the problem. I was thinking of 'Health and Safety officers' and 'diversity advisors' and 'media personalities' but they haven't fallen yet. Blue collar class - but there has always been specialist manual workers - preliterate tribal life had its specialists and we still have them - plumbers, electricians, etc
I've been following 2 bdrm Auckland apartments for rent - the number of listings has doubled since the beginning of May and asking rent prices have come back about $20 per week. Many now are for immediate occupation, whereas before you typically had to wait several weeks for the previous tenancy to finish.
Sad day, small business getting wiped out by Amazon
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/the-saddest-day-ever#
got to save some overpaid city employees the supercity has been a drain on the rate payer since day one, thanks ACT and Rodney for creating this bureaucratic mess
https://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/about-auckland-council/performance-…
Do the people really have an effective voice these days? Do all the social media and blogs just become background noise that the pollies can ignore or manipulate? Are sites such as this one merely a platform for venting? Did Interest.co follow up with Orr or Robertson on the valid questions raised by us re QE, or has just moved on?
The problem that council's have is no-one wants them to cut spending, yet everyone wants reduced rates.
If councils cut all their roading projects for a year for example (keeping maintenance) it would probably pull many out of the debt holes they are in, in a relatively short time due to the % of their budgets go to transport projects.
Yet - how popular would a move like that be?
Similarly look at other council services, rubbish, sports grounds, reserves, libraries etc. Can you imagine the public responding well if those services were no longer maintained to the same levels and/or cut back?
Everyone seemingly wants to have their cake and eat it too.
That's a matter of managing expectations. I am listening to Covid19 announcements on the radio every commercial break. Perhaps AC should spend a few dollars explaining they spend what they take in rates and that tough choices are ahead. We cant act like nothing has changed ~ expecting the same services ~ when revenue has had a huge dent. There has to be communication of economic reality. Maybe the library opens 3 days a week, maybe we are 50% of the managers making 200k a year but it cannot continue the way it's going.
Last I checked we still have a cyceway across the bridge budgetted at $360m. Make you most optomistic guess at the number of cyclists who will use it regularly and divide that into $360m. [BTW I love cycling and if it cost $360 without the million at the end I would pay for it myself].
For every one with systems development experience.
It's the "now how does this work moment"....
This is the trace, trace, test mgt system. It's the reason the APP does work, so forget the APP.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/418222/concern-over-dhbs-reluctance…
Dr Baker
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018749219
Dr B
https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018749207
Forget everything you ever thought - or we were told & assured - of as Gold Standard.
DrBs yes, noing is classic Yes Minister.
If he was working for you, you as the Boss might be prompted into action.
And
https://amp.rnz.co.nz/article/c21eb311-ed2f-4c5e-a13c-1caff99d0150
The review by consultants Allen & Clarke, commissioned by the Ministry of Health in April, followed at least one district health board's refusal to use the national contract tracing software citing concerns with its ability to deal with complex cases or clusters.
Yep, forget the APP.
As the country turns its eyes to life under level 1, confusion reigns over the future of contact tracing at hospitality businesses.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/418321/hospitality-businesses-confu…
Concerning the main system.
1. Why build anything without support of DHBs that speak for half the population.
2. Accepting that you press ahead and build something, why leave off features or existing systems you wish to replace.
3. Why use vendors and contractors that build something that they know will not work or be used - speaks to the character & capability of the IT folk (the virus committee was told MoH used only existing vendors).
This you should read
https://www.reseller.co.nz/article/664780/minister-health-releases-dire…
Multiple ICT systems in New Zealand health sector are aged and at least partially out of support, Minister of Health David Clark has reported to Parliament.
These include the National Provider Index, National Enrolment Service and National Health Index, the National Immunisation Register as well as the Cancer Registry, online pharmaceutical claiming system and financial management and budgeting software.
From Reseller News
"Proposals for Investment in new ICT projects by DHBs are monitored by the Ministry," a Parliamentary report said.
"There is a greater focus on conformity and compliance with information standards published by the Health Information Standards Organisation (HISO) and All-of-Government directives promoted by the Government Chief Digital Officer."
https://www.parliament.nz/resource/en-NZ/52SCHE_EVI_88159_HE6077/791e0f…
Fascinating reading here.
Seriously folks ............. we are in BIG trouble .
The spectacular Stock market , Bond market and Currency rallies are an illusion .Our global economic fundamentals have not changed for the better since the start of 2020 , and there is good reason to believe they are set to worsen .
So why are the markets seemingly so disconnected from reality ?
Money is still flowing into Pension funds and fund managers are desperately chasing yield , thus inflating prices of assets all over the place , including the NZX . This is coupled to funny money.......... (that is QE /printing / easing and Bond buying ).
This funny money is not going into the productive sector or Capex , or infrastructure NOR is it being spent on consumer goods and services ...........its going into assets .
Trust me , this is not going to end well .
I think we all know it's an absolute s*#t storm of a situation complicit Reserve Banks have printed us into all around the world.
Yet everyone wants to keep living under the illusion of wealth. Because that will ensure political power remains with the people benefiting the most from it. This is why I think we all need to recognise the system is broken, and those that are responsible for breaking it are trying their hardest to remain in power. It really is revolution time, it's just that I don't think most people recognise it yet, they continue to live in the illusion of wealth. It's a self feeding system that will inevitably break down, but we should all want to change it NOW, because now will mean a peaceful overthrow of the old order.
I suspect though that it will only be when there are bread lines around the block that people will finally wake up to the reality they have been hoodwinked. Then the revolution will be violent.
Blobbles. there will never be bread lines round the block. Welfare will ensure that; the price gated communities pay to keep the hordes at bay. The middle classes possessing the social and intellectual resources to initiate a revolution are fully bought into the consumerist notion of limitless resources, asset accumulation and pursuit of joyful experiences as lifes key aspiration. Students, the previously key hotbed of activism are largely acquiescent with only identity politics issues capable of stirring their political torpor. Revolution will only be generated organically from the collapse of the economic system that you forecast, not from induced political activism.
Boatman. 'Trust me , this is not going to end well' .... A message I've been hearing for a decade. Had I heeded it my life would be very much more confined today. I agree with you but yet again it's possible the cost may be invoiced down the track. I believed C19 would deliver payment time but now I'm thinking possibly not. Knowing when to hold em and when to walk away is the trick. I'm not convinced the dealings done just yet.
I have missed out on some gains recently but very happy with my position right now. Nasdaq up nearly 10% YTD...seriously? I mean seriously? Confirmation that I know nothing about the capital markets after investing for 30 years. 90% out of equities and happy to be.
The ECB said it would scale up its bond-purchase program by almost double to nearly €1.4 tln, a move that puts its stimulus effort in line with the US Fed.
Richard Werner #askECB
1) Lowering rates has not stimulated growth & empirically rates are positively correlated with growth. What makes you believe lowering rates will help the economy?2) Under the ECB's, almost 4000 banks disappeared, as ECB has squeezed their margins. Why kill SME banks? Link
So, you’re convinced that low rates are powerful stimulus. You believe, like any good standing Economist, that reduced interest costs can only lead to more credit across-the-board. That with more credit will emerge more economic activity and, better, activity of the inflationary variety. A recovery, in other words.
Ceteris paribus.
What happens, however, if you also believe you’ve been responsible for bringing rates down all across the curve…and then no recovery. Just as the textbook said, lower yields as far as the eye can see. And yet, zip. Link
Yep, but not going to change any time soon as it'd be career immediately over for any politician brave enough to take the necessary stand. My portfolio is down only about 7% on this time last year. It defies logic given the earnings outlook and default risk. But with the system brimming with cash, non equity real yields mostly negative and 50,000 new sharesie investors with hardly a clue, this Jordan Belfort 'rally' is likely to keep powering higher. A few weeks ago I bought $40K of the ASX200 on an historic yield of about 4% and it's now 'worth' nearly $10K more. As you say - madness.
Fed will face day of reckoning
I see comments about housing stock on this thread .
So the tide has gone out , many are naked on this beach now , and the "housing shortage " is no longer a topic .
There are literally thousands of houses to let ( over 5,000 housing units to let on Trade me in Auckland alone) and lets not forget that many agencies never bother to use Trade me because demand is usually so brisk.
The number of properties vacant or to let or about to be vacant could well be higher
5000 empty houses to let on trade me are just under 1% of all the houses in Auckland , and that is not the sign of an "acute housing shortage "
That is what happens when your government and central bank allow your housing market to become a casino for the world to take bets on and we still expect that there will be no social or economic consequences of the self interest and greed. Good luck with that I say.
@middleman .......There were nearly 2,000 migrants a week at one stage , just the numbers were fudged................." offset" by those leaving to go and work in Aussie or going overseas for an extended period .
I have applied my mind to some second -step thinking , and I am unsure what the long -term effects will be on the construction sector if we dont need more houses
The construction industry was historically able to quickly reduce and then rebuild capacity to accomodate significant demand fluctuations but this time was not able to do so in AKL. Multiple and now well understood factors were at play with some new ones this time eg successive governments intent on flooding NZ with low quality migration but I was nevertheless surprised at the slowness with which the industry responded.
Apart from the spike in houses to let, I'f be interested in what people know about the level of unoccupied housing in areas where offshore buyers have been active over the past ten years. On our last trip to AKL we say several empty houses in places like Epsom and Birkenhead in states of gentle decline - suggesting perhaps that many houses have been bought (possibly also by NZ'ers) and simply parked in preference to tenant risk?
It's pretty well reported: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/116027291/worrying-rise-in-em…
Basically it's gone up 18% over 5 years, whereas it went up only 0.1 percent over the prior 7 years. I hate to think how many houses are empty now in Auckland, probably a lot higher than the 39k found in the census. Those that are doing the parking are almost certainly property spruikers from here and overseas parking their $$ for capital gain. Of course just down the road you have 20 people living in a 3 bedroom house. Yeah, the markets not broken at all, working fine.
Having been to quite a few open homes, how many times do I find old single people or old couples living in massive mansions 200-400sqm. Then my friends with 3 kids in two of the highest paying professions in NZ, find those same houses completely unaffordable. Don't worry though, markets not broken, working fine.
Just had a look at the Census numbers for vacant housing at local board level - tends to confirm things. The number of vacant private dwellings increased by 40% (1,750 units) between 2013 and 2018 in the main North Shore markets (Upper Harbour, Kaipatiki and Hibiscus & Bays Board Areas), compared to only 9% growth in occupied housing numbers. For Upper Harbour, the increase in vacant housing numbers was 56% (522).
Similar trends in the South and East with Orakei and Howick each showing about a 20-30% increase in vacant private dwellings (400+ additional vacancies). Vacant dwelling numbers in the five southern board areas (Mangere to Franklin) increased by 38% (1350 units) between 2013 and 2018 compared to an increase of only 9% in occupied dwelling numbers. In Papakura, the increase was 47%.
Excluding Waiheke and the Barrier, Auckland City had about 36,000 vacant private dwellings at the time of the last Census. Even allowing for residents being temporarily absent and properties held for redevelopment, we can safely assume that at least half of these are parked for profit. So there's another 20,000 dwellings to add to Boatman's 5,000.
Time for a property utilisation tax anyone?
A pretty chart of the US unemployment rate since records began:
(Warning! Graphic content! Not for the faint hearted!)
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=usurtot&v=202005081237V2…
We had 2 mm last night so green is well on it's way but we are still in a drought. Talked to some friends yesterday who just killed their cows. Tough decision but no market and no feed so something had to give and they ended up at the works, two generations of breeding down the shute.
Been lots of tragic stories like this, and I think when the cold turns up there will be lots more.
With all that's going on in the world, much uncertainty in markets I don't think anyone knows what to do. My grass is growing but now it takes a month to grow as much as a week in April, lambs due to be drafted next week. Soft short feed is just full of water, at stock just chew it down in seconds. If i stocked at my normal winter carrying I would be in crisis mid July and no feed available to buy in. Im in an impossible situation of having to sit and wait, even if stock is cheap, then again who knows what is cheap with the disruption to the meat industry from covid 19?
I talked to an agent who told me he sold 2k steers in the spring, the guy must have lost a fortune stuck in a drought with animals going backwards. Ewes in saleyards are in very poor condition worst i've ever seen, doubt they would lamb well, not scanned in lamb and making $120, thinking someone will fatten them and kill them for the Chinese market.
In overnight news, China just got a new Government.
The New Federal State of China.
The flag, gold stars on blue background does impress.
The problem in US
https://www.bitchute.com/video/YPPCMCDdWHLq/
Carlson comes out with a lot of strongly middle-america little guy supporting stuff, he is distinctly not on the side of corporates or elites. I think many on the left and right who care about the welfare of their countrymen would agree with most of much if not most of what he says (excepting the social/religious conservatism elements).
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