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US retail sales bounce but still -6% lower in a year; US bank profits dive; new US stimulus proposed; China and India in death fight; RBA puzzled; UST 10yr yield at 0.75%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.2

US retail sales bounce but still -6% lower in a year; US bank profits dive; new US stimulus proposed; China and India in death fight; RBA puzzled; UST 10yr yield at 0.75%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.2

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news promises of ever more stimulus are still motivating equity markets.

But first up today there was another dairy auction and this one was positive, up +1.8% from the prior auction and the most since the start of the year. In New Zealand dollars, prices are virtually unchanged. Volumes sold are rising. WMP (+2.2%) and SMP (+3.1%) led the way. But this auction's positive outcome is unlikely to change any farm gate milk price forecast. But at least it is a positive way to end the 2019/20 milk season.

In the US, the bounce-back of retail sales in May from April was a bit better than expected, but it still leaves them a whopping -6.1% lower than for May 2019 and that is a loss of trading revenue of -$42 bln on top of the April decline of -$99 bln. It is a sharp retreat, causing an earthquake in American retail sales and the industries that support them - like commercial property.

The latest Johnson Redbook weekly retail sales report shows June sales down -2.4% from last week and down -8.3% year-on-year.

It is a similar story for American industrial production - a small +1.4% bounceback in May from a sharp April drop, but leaving the year-on-year result more than -15% lower. Production of business equipment was down -27% year-on-year.

The effect on the real economy is large and banks are not escaping the impact. Profits of American banks are down -70% in the March quarter compared with Q4-2019, and more than -20% lower than a year ago. The review covers 5116 American banks and 373 of them are now posting losses. It is certain that the Q2-2020 results will be much worse.

More stimulus is coming. The US Administration is preparing a US$1 tln infrastructure package focused on transportation projects in an effort to get some momentum back.

The equity markets like stimulus, and the S&P500 is up +2% so far in mid-day trade. That follows even greater rises in Europe overnight that most exceeded +3%. Yesterday, Shanghai rose +1.5%, Hong Kong was up +2.4% and Tokyo led them all, up almost +5%.

Border tensions between India and China have turned violent, with the two sides clashing in a disputed area in the Himalayan Mountains, leaving 20 Indian soldiers dead. The leadership of both countries don't exude confidence that this will be de-escalated soon.

Retail sales in Indonesia fell very sharply in April, and are likely to be even lower in May.

In Australia, there are now more people being hired than there are being fired according to the latest payroll data, but the unemployment rate is likely to rise when their official figures are released tomorrow. Analysts expect their May jobless level to have risen to 7% and up from 6.2% in April.

And the release of the latest RBA minutes reveals uneasiness about how equity and asset valuations are rising as the economic fundamentals deteriorate.

The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 8,084,400 which is up +118,000 in a day and a similar rising pace. Global deaths now exceed 438,000. Beijing city has raised its coronavirus emergency level, shut schools, and imposed travel curbs as coronavirus cases mount to over +25 per day. They are testing 70,000 people per day now.

Just over 26% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +20,000 since this time yesterday to 2,123,100. A half of that increase is in four Sun States. US deaths now exceed 117,000.

In Australia, there have been 7347 cases (+12 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just over 93% (rising). 17 people are in hospital there (unchanged) with 3 in ICU (-1). There are now 389 active cases in Australia (+7).

The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 0.75%. Their 2-10 curve is a little steeper at +55 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also holding at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is steeper at +61 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is also up by +3 bps at 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is up +5 bps at 2.85%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield is also rising, up +5 bps at 0.85%.

The gold price is little-changed today, up +US$2 to US$1,728/oz.

Oil prices are firmer again today, up by +US$1.50. They are now just under US$38.50/bbl in the US. The Brent price is just under US$41/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer this morning at 64.5 USc. On the cross rates we are little-changed at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 57.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is marginally lower at 69.2.

The bitcoin price is still in its quiet phase, firmer by less than +1% at US$9,464 today. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our currency charts are here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

113 Comments

If people read nothing else today:

https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/disorders-now-and-to-come

Then have a think.

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Great post PDK

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Is the writer of that article a paid up Republican? He talks about Democrat, Wall St, and the Fed corruption, and the incompetence of the US leadership but no mention of the complicity of the Republican party?

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My take on the post was the whole system is screwed...neither party had any answers except more of the same as the engines stop one by one.

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Thanks and yes, he disparages all equally.

Contrast that piece with David Hargreaves 'genuine growth engine for the economy' comment. How many years have I been putting up the physics here? (and this site has turned down pieces on the need for capacitance/resilience in the system, and about cities being merely giant heat engines).

Contrast it also with the Guyon Espiner effort (RNZ/after the virus) last night. I'd emailed them kudos for the first episode; I'm contemplating a formal complaint about this 'work' one. The problem is mistaking? flows for stocks, then interviewing three (in the Espiner case) flow experts. While totally ignoring remaining stocks. And he's meant to be one of our best......

Whether journalism ever gets around to challenging economics, is an interesting question. I suspect Kunstler has it right - society will never recognise/discuss the wave breaking over them. Even after it's broken.

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He doesn't disparage all equally PDK. I agree that the entire system is screwed, but he completely avoids mentioning the Republicans to the point that it is glaringly obvious. Yet they are as complicit in the current mess as any of the others he does mention.

As to your other points; the western system is weighted towards qualifications, not accuracy. This results in any challenges being about the person not the message. It is so often seen on this forum too. You yourself often get disparaged here by those who don't want to hear the message you espouse. A journo challenging the conventional economic wisdom, even though stating the obvious - that it is failing us, is likely to get shut out rather than promoted. Media bias has become an issue, most likely because of the politics around getting access. It takes strength and courage to challenge the conventional wisdom, and it takes strength and courage to bear the challenge intelligently and respond equally. This is becoming rarer, on both sides.

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M86 - good points.

But on Kunstler: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Howard_Kunstler
Kunstler is a harsh critic of both the Republican Party, describing them as "a gang of hypocritical, pietistic sadists, seeking pleasure in the suffering of others while pretending to be Christians, devoid of sympathy, empathy, or any inclination to simple human kindness, constant breakers of the Golden Rule, enemies of the common good........

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Fair enough. I found his failure to mention the Republicans intriguing while he singled out all the others. Because of it there appeared to be a bias.

Interesting though that if the two main parties are so corrupt and incompetent, that people like Kunstler are not identifying independents who offer a viable alternative?

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He really doesn’t need to Muz. Every other media outlet around the world does...

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Do ordinary, voting Americans get to see the independents being promoted? Global media outlets have their own readers, not necessarily Americans who can be and often are remarkably insular. With our outward looking culture, we would hear about the independents here surely, but I've heard nothing about any?

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The MSM in the US are just gunning for Trump. As such, they've lain down with dogs and the scratching is only being noticed by a few. Google Glinton repeals Glass Steagall then realise it led directly to the GFC.

Then ask why he had to do it? The answer is the same reason the elite had to start dispossessing others in earnest a couple of decades earlier; not enough planet to go around. The MSM consistently avoid/ignore/are too ignorant to understand? this.

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Trump made it very clear, even before he secured the GOP nomination, that he fully expected to not have a good relationship with the media and about that he couldn’t give a toss. That on its own is red flag that threatens both the self importance and power of the media in general and in particular those with the famous images. So no surprises at the strident and sustained anti Trump reportage. Fox, for what they are worth, being something of an exception, but to be cynical about it, they do generate quite a bit of interest simply by going against the flow. Perhaps CNN should have thought up that first.

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I'm contemplating a formal complaint about this 'work' one.
I'm curious - on what basis? Because you don't agree with their opinion?

You get annoyed that interest doesn't publish your opinion pieces and then consider a formal complaint about (what is essentially an opinion piece) you don't agree with?
Is it only your opinion that matters?

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Was thinking the same thing. It turned into a Democrat hit piece.

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Rather than lib/dem, left/right or nat/lab, think about elite/cannon-fodder. The dem hierarchy are elite.

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Don't you think it is justified - mindless attemps to bring down Trump at a huge cost (financially) with negative outcomes, corruption in the FBI and an idiotic candidate standing for president who has made so many gaffes. Its totally embarrassing on the world stage but the internal corrupt press stay glum by not reporting it or question him about it. The USA ,and globally, would be in kaos mode if he got elected come November.

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Who got elected?, and are we not in already there? "The USA ,and globally, would be in kaos mode"

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"The perplexed and bamboozled include the entire leadership nucleus of the land, who seem starkly unable to act coherently in the tightening vortex of crisis. While Mr. Trump seems to dimly apprehend the urgent need for economic restructuring, he’s able to express it only in messages that sound like a 1961 Frigidaire commercial, with overtones of Marvel Comics superhero grandiosity. "

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Not sure borrowing money and funneling it to friends constitutes comprehension of the urgent need for economic restructuring, really.

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murray86: if you want to get the whole picture including 'the complicity of the republic party' google some you-tube videos of interviews with Chris Hedges. Hedges would be the leading critic of the current system by a country mile; he literally covers everything from the emerging fascist Christian right who are building their own self-contained completely separate societies to the 'cleansing' of white working class males who are committing suicide in huge numbers as they lose the old certainties of employment, status, and self-respect, and take to mind-numbing but lethal drugs like Oxycontin.
One of his interesting observations is that the rot set in for the American working class male when Clinton signed up to NAFTA and the jobs quickly migrated to Mexico, where workers on $3 an hour without union protection build cars for those that can still afford them in the US.

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America is not damaged, it's broken.

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Trump tried to drain the swap but became part of it.
We saw this with Obama as well, the great hope smashed on the rocks of the US crazy machine.

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I don't believe Trump had any intention of draining any swamps.

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At this stage it doesn't matter. The Dem's or the Rep's can control this trainwreck much longer.

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He just wanted to be the biggest, meanest 'gator in 'em.

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He's the biggest meanest gator above the water but that Hillary is a bigger meaner gator that lerks beneath the water out of sight.

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That mean ass gator expresses love for the Korean dictator kim Jong un.

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Don't look now but NZ both Labour and National are upro their eyeballs with China. Helen Clark set that up and wanted a pat on the back for it.

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PDK I think Kunster comes from Virginia and that has some really depressed areas, same as Pennsylvania. If he lived in the South he would have different outlook. Pittsburg as an example has 3000 acres of empty old steel industry buildings on the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers.
I always thought it would be amazing to take a boat down the Ohio river to the Mississippi, and go all the way down to the Gulf, you would experience real America.
For all it's faults the USA is the most incredible country, full of amazing optimistic genuine, resourceful people and that includes African Americans and Hispanics.

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I've only been twice but I'd love to go through the countryside in the US, especially the wildlife and national parks

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/10/us-national-parks-d…

So your comment is perhaps retrospective :)

It's all about stocks, and the planet is finite. Hence Porirua vs wetland. Hence a dry Auckland. Hence the Brownlee/Schedule4 attempt. Hence the Trump removal of protections. But even if every global impediment - RMA included - was removed COMPLETELY, there isn't a 'doubling-time' left, planetary stocks-wise. So pick your growth-rate, I'll predict your collapse date.

Simple enough, you'd think, for even an economist to figure out.....

Glad you have the memories.

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Has been in the pipeline for years. They just needed a crisis as cover to put the wheels in motion. Very sad

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The problem in the National parks is like here just too many people. You can still visit the high desert but try to get into Yosemite can be a challenge. You just need to follow the locals and not get stuck with the crowds.

PDK, we borrowed of the future, the future hasn't turned out as bright as we thought.

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Have a look at Jonathan Raban's "Old Glory - A Voyage Down the Mississippi". It's a bit dated now (1979) but still a great read.

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you could get a cheap sailboat, take the mast off and ship it south, then use the motor, it would have to be one of the great experiences of the world, when you get to the gulf, put the mast back on, head to Florida, then up the inland waterways to NY, or sail south to Costa rica.
That would be an incredible and cheap holiday.

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Man that sounds awesome.

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you can do it in France too, you end up in the Med, they have trucks that take your mast or you can strap it to the deck but most people I know have shipped the masts south.

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I'll have too put that soon the slow burner due to the Wuflu. A month in the Sounds, hunting, fishing and diving will more than suffice for this red neck.

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Ship it... some of those locks are quite tight... and mind how much you draw... some of the smaller canals are quite shallow.

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good to find someone who has done it, it's on my list, France that is. They say the best place to buy a boat in the EU is the Netherlands. We had a young guy staying from the Netherlands, at 19 he bought a boat with a center board and sailed up and spent summer in Sweden via the Kiel canal with his 19 yr old girlfriend, wish I had thought of that at 19.

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Hell yes! We circumnavigated for 8 years on a 10 metre yacht, and the canals through Europe were one of the highlights.

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I decided not to click on the link since the title included an immature expletive commonly used by trump. It just made it lack any believability of serious journalism.

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Where do our banks get their finance from? How long until the US bank stress finds its way here? Rising interest rates anyone?

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Rising interest rates? Money printers go brrrrrrrr

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Read the paragraph on banks again Frazz. All that stimulus is not getting through to them. They're losing money hand over fist, the next step is calling in some or all of their loans. Who have they loaned to? Or can they sell the loan portfolios? If so at what cost, including to the borrower?

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Exactly, which is why 2021 is being touted as the year of insolvencies and bankruptcy. It’s the next stage in the cycle.

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A lot of accountants obtaining their liquidators license.

Makes sense too. Such a shortage of them at present.

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My friend that is a professor of economics in the USA, or has he prefers a professor of applied statistics, has posted that the overall death rate for the USA for the year to March is 2% higher than last year. He states this is statistically insignificant. (for the record he is hardcore democrat and very anti Trump. Also quite anti morons that don't know statistics).

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Scarfie is he arguing that COVID19 is a statistically insignificant event, or the additional deaths from it are? At what level would he consider it to become significant? What's his view of the riots from a statistical perspective?

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Scarfie another question for your statistician mate; An Epidemiologist from the UK indicated that he believed there would be legacies left behind for those who caught, but survived COVID19. He suggested a variety or organ damage that would have lasting effects. So the true mortality rate from COVID may not be known for some time, as those who caught it, but survived may die prematurely down the road because of it's indirect effects.

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No, that stat says nothing more than 'death rates were normal before covid-19 truly hit the US'.

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Link, please?
Or at least tell us at what level the result is statistically insignificant.

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Talking of stats, or figures, on the Worldometer recordings, whenever the USA has got close to 1.2 mill active cases of CV19 it suddenly drops out 50K or so of them. Perhaps just a catch up on the actual recovered number. Approaching 1.2mill again though, interesting to see if the same adjustment recurs this time.

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Possibly statistically insignificant if true but not insignificant if your mother, father, brother, sister, relative or friend are amongst the 117,000 odd who have died. Not to mention all those who've survived but spent weeks in ICU.

We do everything we can do to prevent any harm from every other form of disease or accident yet there seems a body of opinion that wants to minimize the effects and response to Covid. I dont get it?

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He is doing a study on the deaths caused by "management" of the virus. The increased mortality of the unemployed, for instance, is actually quite well known. My friend says it could be as many as 20:1. Twenty deaths from the after affects for every death caused by the virus, young people not old people, and worldwide that is. This is hitting the poor hard in some places. He is looking at the data, not the emotional argument, which seems mostly to be controlled by old bastards that are not interested in saving lives, only saving their own life. Nothing wrong with that of course, but plenty wrong with the hypocrisy.

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Not so sure it is old bastards as such, more career protection of those in privileged positions. Great that there are still plenty of sane people trying to make sense of it all, like your friend. It is easy to think the loonies represent the majority, as the blood-lusting media would have us believe.

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I'm just seeing similar bad behaviour from some friends as what I've seen on here. Some even going as far as saying people breaching lockdown should be charged with manslaughter. In my opinion people have lost their minds when it gets to that sort of statement. Yes media fueling it alright. I've actually been analysing the (bad) behaviour myself and broken it so far into four types. The old and at risk being very vocal in support of the lockdown without any regard to the wider consequences being one of them, I even think you might put the editor of this site in that category.

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You're possibly being a little shallow in your thinking there Scarfie. Fundamentally this is a life and death decision. People spreading COVID, not complying with the lock down, because they think the rules are unfair, their right to make money or what ever are saying they do not care if someone dies because of their actions. If they comply with the lock down, the Government as said that within reason, they will be looked after. Their job will be protected, they'll try to ensure the banks don't jump too hard on you, if you lose your job because of the lock down or COVID, we'll do what we can to help you into a new one. Within the scope of this NO ONE should die, but through non-compliance people could die, and more left with lasting damage.

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Well I've covered off the unlawfulness of the lockdown in my own piece, I think I covered the bases well. Perhaps I was a little bit soft, the enforcement of the lockdown was a criminal act, and I'd be happy for those pepetrating it to be appropriately criminally charged. I'm really hoping individual Police Officers that acted criminally are charged for the economic damage they causes business and lose their shirt. I heard of one green grocer in this position when listening to the radio, visited first by constables and then someone of higher rank to close him down. There was no power to do that.

People fail to understand principles. You shouldn't kill, that is one, should shouldn't steal, that is another. Freedom on the individual is a principle rooted in these two others. You deprive a man of liberty you steal his time. Sticking to principles is quite different to guesswork. I'm amazed how how many are willing to throw principles out the window, it is totally lacking in intellectual rigor.

As for how many will die of the virus vs how many will die from unemployment, there are historical examples to draw from. I did some back of the envelope calculation and find that 15,000 New Zealanders under the age of 65 are likely to die from the lockdown. No only did we lose our civil liberty, we are going to kill a lot of productive people.

People were always going to die one way or the other, not way to avoid that. It is naive to think that they would not. But in the same vein many were not going to get sick or die. So far the stats are showing 40% don't get it, not at all. A further 40% get it buy are asymptomatic. There is the Pareto Principle. Another 15%+ get it mildly with no lasting effects.

I posted here early how to really prevent it, live a healthy lifestyle.

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Your blinkers are coming out Scarfie. So you're saying that death is inevitable and because of that, if it comes a little early because of someone else's selfish, careless act, well that just tough, you were just unlucky. But if you temporarily take away my enjoyment of life so others may live, look out, I'm gunning for you!

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What didn't you understand about the criminal behaviour of Police in may article. I've spelled it out pretty clear the authority wasn't there. What also don't you understand about civil rights? I'd say not a lot if you have to pull emotive behaviour out, not to mention a fallacy. I also spelled out that there were tools available to use within the Health Act that didn't breach civil rights. I'd suggest you are probably the one with blinkers on. Probably of mature age so at risk, and probably with some underlying health issues that increase your risk.

What is it about you that you'd risk 20 young people to save your own arse, and trash the economy and lifestyle for many other young people?

Plus on top of that you seem to be aware that there are underlying resource and over population issues. You can't hide from pandemics, they are a part of the wind down facing us. It is going to be difficult enough to maintain civil rights without giving them up for false reasons.

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CV19 is a clear and present danger. Social ramifications of the consequences of protective measures is not. The NZ health system was already highly pressured. An influx of CV19:admissions would overwhelm the already hard pressed health sector’s ability to contain existing patients, cardiac, oncology, stroke, accident by way of example. So then, some identity in power should then thus be empowered to decide that as well as those existing cases being sacrificed, some others in society should be more expendable than others. On this occasion the implication is that decision be based on age, say over 70’s because they are a liability in terms of the greater good. And then on the same plane in the interests of the greater good let’s just move on to other selections, mental disability what would they know anyway, colour, creed for a start. Well that is really what Adolf was all about isn’t it. No-one in any civilised society has any right to determine who lives or dies based on a societal selection and the ideology is genocidal and abhorrent. And to claim that there is precedent due to the everyday tragic occurrences involving particular individuals regarding drug or treatment availability or life support continuation, is an absolute insult to the heartbreak of the families and medical staff that are involved alike in those decisions.

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There's certainly going to be some interesting accounting once this is all over, figuring out what collateral damage has been done. My suspicion is that without some kind of lock down response, the casualties and disruption would have either been drastically higher than what we have experienced so far, or people would have enforced their own lock downs by hunkering down in their own homes.

What we do know is that despite strict lock downs in most areas, Europe as a whole, over all ages, saw death rates peak at around 60% higher than the normal range. Without restrictions, this would have been much higher.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

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A bit like the Irishman; "It's not that I'm afraid of dying. it's just that I don't want to be there when it happens...."

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Oh that’ll be the one who arrived home from the doctor in a bowler, pin stripe suit, briefcase and told his startled wife that it was because he had been diagnosed as impotent.

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""We do everything we can do to prevent any harm from every other form of disease or accident"" ?? What about compulsory vaccinations, alcohol only after age 25, road dividers, removing the tax and benefit incentives for couples with kids to break up, sugar and fast food taxes, making tobacco illegal, etc - The truth is we have a society that spends a fortune on hospitals and doctors but just don't care about prevention. We do more about Covid-19 because it is in the news.

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The US has just ticked over the 1957 Asian flu fatality numbers - not population adjusted and assuming accurate death cert. reporting.
The cure has been far worse than the disease compared to other pandemics.
"The 1918/1919 influenza pandemic infected 25% of the world’s population and caused worldwide at least 50 million deaths. The most recent influenza pandemics including Asian influenza (H2N2, 1957–1963, about 2–4 million killed) and Hong Kong influenza (H3N2, 1968–1970, about 1–2 million killed) were less aggressive. Based on the assumption that a pandemic may occur every 30–50 years, virologists and public health officials have advised increased preparedness and improvement of governmental plans."
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00430-009-0118-5

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Sounds like he has either carefully selected his time period to be before the main wave hit the US, or the relevant data is not available yet. Death rate from Covid in March was very low compared to April in the US. Maybe check up on him in a month or two and see what the numbers say then - or have a peek at the comparable European data to see the giant spike that was the first wave of Covid-19 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.euromomo.eu/

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Taking a rough estimate from the worldometers daily deaths graph, the total US deaths to the end of March was ~5,000. Since then, there have been another 114,000.

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Ahhh... OK. So number of dead in the US in 2018 was 2.8m from all causes of death. Currently COVID has officially killed 117k, or 4% of total deaths (remember this is likely over and above "normal" deaths). And it's only 3 months of deaths that have been reported (triple this for the rest of the year?), likely there are a lot more than that due to reporting difficulties. In fact it takes them a couple of years to reasonably collate and figure out how to classify most deaths, just like in any jurisdiction.

As others have said, it's far too dangerous to be making statements like "statistically insignificant" if we haven't even got close to having full data sets. In fact I would question any statisticians qualification that can claim such statements when they can't even calculate their 2% figure correctly. Let alone start talking about the deaths being "statistically insignificant" when they don't have reliable data sets.

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Its good to see GDT was up - even if in dollar terms it was neutral. Not a lot of good financial news these days, so I'll take this as positive news. :-)

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Seems most of the results are better than expected. GDT, and retail sales (here and in the US of A) at least. I smell a conspiracy ...make a low economic forecast that makes everyone panic (and sell out) and then later everyone breathes a collective sigh of relief (and has to buy back in)

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Not long anymore before the good stuff hits the fan.

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"Profits of American banks are down -70% in the March quarter compared with Q4-2019, and more than -20% lower than a year ago. "

What will the impact of COVID 19 & lockdown on the bank profits of the NZ banks, I wonder? ....

Will the loan loss provisions rise further after expiry of the wage subsidies and mortgage payment deferral programs? ...

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Australia has wage subsidy in place till end of September along with other policies like mortage defferal, so October / November data will be important just like NZ has till it's freebies till August / Election date.

China going on offence is expected as they believes that offence is the best form of defence. May be trying to prove to US and other powers by going to war with India. Similar to economic war with Australia where is trying to intimidate other countries like NZ. (As cannot find reason for physical war).

NZ is lucky that if want can ignore China (Short term monetary loss for long term Gain) and come out of it clutches unlike their neighbour who have no choice.

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Aussies also can access their superannuation accounts in response to the pandemic. $10k tax free this FY, and another $10k next FY.

Its a two minute process online and Ive had mates receive the cash a few days later. I wouldnt even call it an application process as you simply request the cash.

Outrageous times.

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I've heard reports of people getting the money and blowing it all. In some cases it was all spent on online gambling. That's one way to give the economy a shot in the arm.

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Others playing the stock market gaming machine. Winning at present and most likely throwing more money in but eventually the house will win.

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The difference with the stock market is the expected value sits with the investor, there is no 'house'. So long as you diversify and keep trading costs in check, you expect to win over the long run (although the variance is high and enough are tempted by day trading so plenty do lose money).

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Something tells me this time that this time quite a few are in for a ass wopping.

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Any Kiwi that has a Aussie superannuation balance can access it from NZ.

Its been an immense help to tradie mates that rode the Gold Coast or mining wave and are now back in NZ with no work.

When youre getting them $20k a nice bottle of something usually ends up in your possession.

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Bigoted nationalists in charge of China and India right now. Slightly worrying

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We prefer tolerant, liberal nationalists. "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel."

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J Powell on corporate bond purchases:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eth4ebT8dw

And opening remarks to the Senate Banking Committee:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pv3XL1vo2g

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Why the US banking system could be on the verge of another crisis.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8wcAXVhwpY

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Uh.. let me get this right.. CLO's are basically bundled packages of loans where the 'top' layer are low risk but they're underpinned by 'lower' layer riskier loans?? And at least three of the big US banks have 'misplaced' billions of dollars worth of these loans??

Excuse my language.. but wtf? And this is on top of a massive money printing and bond buy back scheme by the Fed? Can I go and boil my head in a tub of acid now?

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2008: No more CDOs
2020: For sale - CLOs

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The Fed has picked up a lot of MBS. Treasuries being issued and then immediately being bought at a higher price from the banks.

The US banks seem to be pretty cashed up or at least have sufficient reserves. Non-bank entities seem to be holding the bag on instruments that are complete junk (not just junk bonds).

I suggest waiting to see how this complete disaster unfolds, then you can boil your head in a tub of acid (as you will have more than enough reason to by that point).

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"We aren't here to terrify people...."
Quite right. Most people will just have a yawn and a scratch if they have any reaction at all. After all, The Fed has our back....doesn't it?!
("The Fed has not backed itself into a corner but to the edge of a precipice." CH Smith)

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They will just get bailed out

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Oh boy this is going to be messy.

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Yeah that's pretty sobering.

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Surely solidifies the source of RBA uneasiness
And the release of the latest RBA minutes reveals uneasiness about how equity and asset valuations are rising as the economic fundamentals deteriorate.

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Good link. Pension funds (kiwisaver) are not going to deliver to expectations.
Its not how much you put in, its how much you get out that counts.

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People keep talking about trans Tasman bubble and media like to go on about how awful it is in USA whilst ignoring that Aussie figures are still rising, not falling. So, no where near elimination and no explanation as to why still rising.

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Meanwhile in NZ.....

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Meanwhile cook isles et al who rely on tourism for their economies are ignored. The islands are currently holding out the welcome mat. They will very soon be holding out the tin can, you guessed it for Jacibda to fill. She went to the islands (and fiji?) last year and was the poster girl... they had her sit in the big chair. So much for that gratitude.

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Yep open up to Islands and leave Aussie. There is no way we are going to OZ anytime soon after yesterdays fiasco. We can't even control 1800 returning people let lone 18,000 which it will be if we open to OZ. Lets start by helping the Pacific Islands first , after all we are handing out millions in aid.

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The alternative for the islands is to ask china for help... if they do then Winston and JA wont be able to move fast enough to ease the restrictions.

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Jacibda - its that you Yap Yap Island name?

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I usually call her JA which stands for Jack A%s

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The USA is in serious trouble. As if they don't have enough internal problems they are going to get blindsided when China join with Russia and introduce a digital currency, primarily in order to remove the USD as the world reserve currency. The shit is then really going to hit the fan. Those money printers are printing toilet paper and the whole world can see it.

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China and Russia will at least in part back their crypto with the gold they have been buying up in mass. Very few think that the US has the gold it says it has.
This all makes for a very scary situation, where the US is backed into a courner and sitting on nukes.

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Add to that countries demanding their gold from London and the paper gold market cracking and BOOM.

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I would be getting onto that quicker smart if I was them. I would have thought that all would have learnt that Englland dosent mind changing the rules and keeping the gold for some obscure reason.
Luckerly NZ has been stacking gold for decades.. whoops we have zero.... hard to believe that reserve banks and countries have been stacking gold for a long time now and NZ didn't act.

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Seems most of the results are better than expected. I smell a conspiracy ...make horribly low forecasts and panic spooks the markets and when the comparatively positive news arrives everyone breathes a colllective sigh of relief ... you guessed it, they have to buy in again

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Breakthough:
Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug - BBC News
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53061281

Wheres the interest.co report or even a small mention would do

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We've been down this road before, best to play the wait and see before writing an articial.

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With Trump's miracle cure hydroxycloride lol.

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As a cure at the late stages it doesn't help but as a medication with zinc and other medicines at the early stages of inflection it does appear to be beneficial.

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There was some anti viral that was the new fix all until it came out that it had only been tested oon 8 people.

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