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US faces tough virus impediments; Canada retail sales awful; China electricity use rises; Australia defends against Chinese cyber attack; UST 10yr yield at 0.69%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.1 USc; TWI-5 = 69.1

US faces tough virus impediments; Canada retail sales awful; China electricity use rises; Australia defends against Chinese cyber attack; UST 10yr yield at 0.69%; oil and gold up; NZ$1 = 64.1 USc; TWI-5 = 69.1
Maraetotara Falls, south of Tuki Tuki in the Hawkes Bay

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the economic week is ending with a whimper.

In the US, Apple has said it will be closing retail stores, especially in states where the virus is raging still. This is being taken as a signal that the American economic recovery from the virus shutdowns will be weaker than previously assumed. 

Wall Street gave up all its morning session gain on the news, and closed down -0.6%, but a +1.9% weekly gain - although all of that happened in one Tuesday morning session.

Canadian retail sales fell much more than expected in April. Of course, a record sharp drop was expected (-15%) but the actual drop was more than -26% month-on-month, and down -32% year-on-year..

China is reporting that electricity usage rose +4.6% in May from the same month a year ago. Electricity usage is often seen as a proxy for how the real Chinese economy is performing.

The Russian central bank cut its policy rate by a full -1% to 4.5% as their economy stumbles though its coronavirus crisis. They are expecting a GDP drop of up to -6% in 2020.

Australia is claiming that "China's government" has escalated "malicious" cyber attacks against Australian businesses and government agencies including critical infrastructure. The claim came from a careful public announcement by their Prime Minister. Although he did not name China, he confirmed it is when answering reporters' questions. Venture capital firms, defense contractors, and the NSW State government have all been hit hard.

Overnight European equity markets rose about +0.5% although London led the way with a +1% rise. For the week the German DAX rose +3.1%, the French CAC rose +0.8% and the London FTSE rose +3.0%.

Yesterday, Shanghai closed up +1.0% for the day and up +1.6% for the week. The weekly gain for Hong Kong was +1.4% and for Tokyo it was +0.8%.

The ASX200 closed yesterday up just +0.1% and for the week it was up +1.6%. The NZX50 Capital Index was up +0.3% yesterday, closing the week up +3.2%.

The latest compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is now 8,552,700 which is up +152,000 in a day and still a fast rising pace. Global deaths now exceed 457,000. Five people died every minute of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours - that we know of. Brazil is about to crash though 1 mln reported cases, and that is likely to be just the tip of a deadly iceberg.

Japan has decided to ease some restrictions on business travel, starting with allowing in a total of 250 travelers daily from Vietnam and Thailand as early as next month. It also says it has begun negotiations with Australia and New Zealand who are the next two countries it is considering. The US and China are at the back of the Japanese queue.

A quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +32,000 since this time yesterday to 2,206,300. That is a rising daily tally and the highest since mid-April. Texas, Florida, California and Arizona are growing hotspots. And there is a sudden spike in Oklahoma that will be worrying officials there because a super-spreader event is happening in Tulsa this weekend. US deaths now exceed 119,000.

In Australia, there have been 7409 cases (+18 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just over 93% (unchanged). 15 people are in hospital there (+1) with 2 in ICU (unchanged). There are now 427 active cases in Australia (+15).

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 0.69%. Their 2-10 curve is flatter at +51 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also holding at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is also flatter at +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is unchanged after yesterday's sharp fall, still at 0.86%. The China Govt 10yr is also virtually unchanged at 2.90%. But the NZ Govt 10 yr yield has risen +4 bps to just over 0.90%.

The gold price is sharply higher, up +US$18 to US$1,742/oz.

Oil prices are firmer again today, but not by much even though it is a building trend, now just under US$40/bbl in the US. The Brent price is just under US$42/bbl. Despite the talk of bringing more wells into production in the US, their rig count continues its steady shift to new record lows.

The Kiwi dollar is a little softer this morning at 64.1 USc. On the cross rates we are also softer at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we at 57.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 69.1.

The bitcoin price is still in its quiet phase, a nine-day run, down less than -1% to US$9,329 today. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our currency charts are here.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

85 Comments

China really is a nasty piece of goods.
Aus have had the guts to stand up to them, we haven't. I think that is shameful.

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"Designate the CCP as a Criminal Organization"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qGg7MWqGXQ

( 18:30 and 35:00 to get the gist!)

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Any Crime even Bilogical war should have motive :

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/china-s-recent-actions-maybe-a-…

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Surely there is a UN punishment for China. Or have they bought all the votes in their favour?

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The UN. Good one, that has made my day.

They wouldn't even need to buy the votes. As a permanent member they have the irght to Veto anything.

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Why do kiwis think the UN is a benign organisation when it is controlled by 5 countries, each with vetos, 2 of which are dictatorships? Many countries just use it as a grandstand to give their Thug in Chief the glamour of membership.

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You do have to wonder why the Labour elite seem so keen to always be involved with/in it.

Inept birds of a feather flocking together?

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In a lengthy op-ed published in American foreign policy journal ‘The National Interest’ and Russian government newspaper 'Rossiyskaya Gazeta,' the Russian president discusses the reasons behind the rise of the Nazis. He also outlines the benefits of the post-war world order, which he now believes needs to be renewed.

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The BBC website had photos of clubs, iron bars with nails inserted and blood stained too. Used by the Chinese soldiers to kill their Indian counterparts. Premeditated, calculated and barbaric. Hate to say it but cannot escape the comparison with circa 1937 Germany. Exactly how capable and prepared then is China to inflict and extend brutality and other genocidal ambitions.

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Foxglove
Just saying;
Exactly the very same weapon used by Allied (including New Zealand) and German troops in trench raids in WW1. Tended to use these as they were effective in close combat and tried to keep their raids as quiet as possible.

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tks pt8, didn’t know that, like my history, always a good day when you learn something. Trench warfare topic then, the Marines in fighting the banzais, Guadalcanal et al, once down to hand to hand, best weapon, good old pump action sawn off shot gun. Duck and fire, duck and fire.

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Foxglove
Cheers.
Trench clubs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvMNyGpPeBw
Pretty brutal and doesn't excuse issues on India / China border.

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My grandpa on First World War trench warfare . He fired then ducked immediately. " I don't know if I killed any Germans, but I tried my hardest to."

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Australia’s sovereignty has been attacked by making the mistake of allowing China to buy up ports and critical infrastructure, not to mention the drought stricken farmers who had their farms sold off to China by the banks. Lessons for NZ.

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China has been successful as have penetrated many pokitical and economical system in different countries.

NZ is now so hooked to National / China Rock Star Economy that NZ has no choice but to follow the dictat of the Chinesse Master.

Has anyone noticed that only other language sign boards that are prevelent in NZ after English is in Chinesse - does it not symbolise colonisation of NZ has started.

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We need to decouple from them.
If we are all poorer, well that is the price of freedom.

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Grant Robinson said this some time ago.

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The Chinese way - do as we say! versus freedom and democracy.

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If China has investments in any country they are falling out with, then I would suggest that China has a problem, not the country of investment.

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What lesson should we take from this treatment by a senior five eyes partner?

On June 7, British Sunday Times published a report citing a high-ranking source in the UK government that Sergei and Yulia Skripals had moved to New Zealand under new identities with new documents.Link

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Just hope, if true, they don't have the "WuFlu".

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That was a big mistake by Australia. It would be great if they could suspend there Iron Ore sales to China but financially, this is not practical at the moment. China has suspended other exports which don't amount to much in regards to Iron Ore sales but India has taken their Wheat. Brazil won't come back online for some time with Iron Ore. Cyber attacks are another issue.
China is really tempting their arm at the moment with the Australian situation and their conflict with India. I can see world leaders turning their backs against them from a trade and pandemic aspects. I think their pandemic has never retreated in their country and they have just covered it not knowing what to do.

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Yep. And where we we find our next Wilberforce. The Wilberforce of our time to deal with this mess.

William Wilberforce (24 August 1759 – 29 July 1833)[1] was a British politician, philanthropist, and a leader of the movement to abolish the slave trade.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Wilberforce

In 1787, he came into contact with Thomas Clarkson and a group of anti-slave-trade activists, including Granville Sharp, Hannah More and Charles Middleton. They persuaded Wilberforce to take on the cause of abolition, and he soon became one of the leading English abolitionists. He headed the parliamentary campaign against the British slave trade for twenty years until the passage of the Slave Trade Act of 1807.

His underlying conservatism led him to support politically and socially controversial legislation, and resulted in criticism that he was ignoring injustices at home while campaigning for the enslaved abroad...

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Henry if you haven’t seen it already then get a copy of movie Amazing Grace. Stars Albert Finney amongst other great casting. Great depiction of all the characters you mention. Yes Wilberforce was a great great man, and alongside his friend Pitt the younger, very powerful parliamentarians. Interestingly their greatest Whig opponent, Charles Fox, crossed party lines to join with them as abolitionists, and thus sunk any hope he had of being PM one day.

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How Dangerous the bubble is when unemployed are betting in Stock Market assuming that government will support them with free money by printing more and more.

Stock-market legend who called 3 financial bubbles says this one is the ‘Real McCoy,’ this is ‘crazy stuff’: https://on.mktw.net/3hwe8ho

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LOL Trump is throwing another hissy fit after the latest national poll showed that he's down to 38% voter approval and that Biden is leading by a large 50%. Trump said “Fox News is out with another of their phony polls".

Ahh well, Trump will probably kill off the rest of his receding support base via the coronavirus once he holds his rallies again. Isn't the next one today in Oklahoma where they currently have 9,706 cases, Humm watch that infection rate spike in the next two weeks.

Forbes article: Trump Says, ‘Fox Is Terrible!’ After Poll Shows Biden Surge.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/19/trump-says-fox-is-ter…

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Sure is. What a rallying cry then. Come and hear the message. Failing that, how’s about a dose of CV19.

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I doubt any of them will be wearing face masks either, otherwise they'll be branded a Biden supporter. Ahh well Darwinism at its best.

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Yes was thinking that this morning - its just plain dumb. USA gone from the leaders of the free world, to be a laughing stock and mislead by a bigot. Trumps attempts to show 'strength' (no need for a face mask during a pandemic) just make him and the country look stupid.

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The thing is, Hilary Clinton would undoubtedly have been different but would she have been any better? What a dreadful question to have to ask!

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Yes this is why I think America is in trouble. The leaders aren't for 'We the people' any longer even though that is the first line of the constitution.

Its about division and self interest. The opposite of we the people.

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Aye, and even further away from Lincoln, government of the people, by the people, for the people. The pointedly named and poignantly preserved, USS Constitution must be sinking into Boston harbour by the day in shame. When a nation commences on dismissing its history it forgoes its future.

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I'm just finishing off the Bejamin Frankling book here by Walter Isaacson. I find one of the speeches Franklin made around the time of the writing of the Constituion quite appropriate give what appears to be going on around the world, and in particular the US (and for some reason our property investors/bankers/central policies come to mind):

'There are two passions which have a powerful influence in the affairs of men. These are ambition and avarice; the love of power and the love of money. Separately, each of these has great force in prompting men to action; but, when united in view of the same object, they have in many minds the most violent effects...And of what kind are the men that will strive for this profitable preeminence, through all the bustle of the cabal, the heat of contention, the infinite mutual abuse of parties, tearing to pieces the best of characters? It will not be the wise and moderate, the lovers of peace and good order, the men fittest for the trust. It will be the bold and the violent, the men of strong passions and indefatigable activity in their selfish pursuits'.

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Have a read of Paul Johnson’s History of the American People. Bit subjective but he makes a valid point that the intellectual calibre and capability of the American revolution leaders is unmatched in any other like event. And after the revolution there was no falling out, unique. That is until the civil war some eighty years later. Nothing though ever remains the same and as soon as the US entered the stage as a world power after WW1, the imperialism started by Mckinley, false war on Spain, grab the Phillipines etc, and catalysed by Theodore Roosevelt, that’s just how it has mushroomed folks.

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You should read the book Clinton Cash. It's all about the Haiti and cyclone that struck the island. She got all her cronie business people supposedly rebuilt the island and it was a disaster. An absolute rip off. But thats okay she added additional funds to the Clinton Foundation from her cronies who ripped off the Haiti government who borrowed the funds for the rebuild. Of course, Obama did nothing to rectify this tragedy.

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More Fake News from the mainstream press. They haven't even started to campaign yet. You would still have to write that result down for Biden because he won't remember. If he wins it will only be for one term. I dont think he will last that long. Its okay though, he will make his son president. That should put the USA on the right "financial"track. NOT.
Trump will win the election, anyway.

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At the rate Trumps shifting downwards I doubt anything can save him now. Oh and has anyone explained to him that the dead can't vote. BBC Four reasons why this was a bad week for Trump. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53102021

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"Oh and has anyone explained to him that the dead can't vote"
Very good, lol

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Yeah, Yeah, Yeah. Anything for a negative story about Trump. We will see. Are you referring to the Democrats about illegal voting because that is what the did in the last election. They used not only dead people but their mobs travelled from state to state to vote more than once for their Democratic Dummies. This is why Trump has banned this type of voting.

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In my view the President of the USA is the worlds most influential position. The example he sets (and I can say he without she) often determines the path for the whole world. The question we should perhaps be asking, is the world heading in the right direction since he took power? I think the world is in a far worse place than it was before Trump took office - he's encouraging people to be self interested bigot and that doesn't work long term as the world is interdependent. What we each do has an impact on others.

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Has anyone told Joe that the lockdown is over and he can come out now? Let's watch him giving speeches and interacting in an ad lib manner with supporters and opponents. Once hilarious, but sadder and sadder as he deteriorates.

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CJ099 like it or not fake is an accurate description of these polls. You need to understand basic quantitative math to understand why (which almost no one does). The point of polls like this is exactly to generate your response: "OMG, Trump!!". It was a bad strategy in 2016 and it is a bad strategy now but politics is on auto pilot.

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"You need to understand basic quantitative math". Happy to email you if you are actually interested but quoting a well known Democrat org I assume you are trolling.

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Maybe just say what is wrong with the polls. Is it these particular ones, or all polls in general?

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the Joneses it depends on the poll. Spending 30 minutes researching a specific polls methodologies to reply to someone that doesn't care about the poll in the first place is a huge waste of time. The game works like this:

- Poll 1,000 likely voters.
- 700 Democrats.
- 300 Republicans.
- Question: "Is Trump doing a good job?"
- News headline reads "70% of Likely Voters think Trump is doing a Bad Job"

Fake is an accurate word.

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Chinese influence in our political parties must be a major issue this election. We need clarification from each party as to their stance on this issue, but I doubt that will be forthcoming as NZ is already dependent economically on China. We are a small nation but we must be principled and show we will not be bullied. And that will require great diplomacy.

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More than diplomacy what is needed is will by the politicans.

Fear psychology that NZ may not survive without China (That is what has been feeded in people's mind for vested interest) as we need China as much as China needs NZ and if by standing up to our interest if have to take short term pain is fine for long term gain.

For long world for money and so called prosperity has ignored human rights, brutality, Dictatership and now4 is time to stand against or be .................

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Be a bit like Germany telling the UK it won't survive without a coalition with them in the early stages of WW2. So glad someone like Churchill had the balls to standup to Hilter - while some of the British elite wanted to do a deal with him - most probably for their own vested interests. That is what was pissing me off about John Key and the previous National government. They were literally willing to sell the country out to foreign owners for their own benefit and completely forgetting about future generations.

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Yep, I still can't get over how John Key wanted to even rebrand our NZ flag to erase our history and wast tax payers money, so we would be more commercially palatable for a China to continue to buy out NZ. That's really shameful!

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Yes and I voted for them the first two terms because I could see how pathetic the Labour party were at the time. But it got to the point where I could see how damaging their (National Party) policies were becoming - and how self interested they were. And telling people they were being xenophobic about the foreign buyer issue. Absolutely bloody nuts....the greatest generation went overseas and fought in wars to protect our lands from foreign powers pushing their weight with their neighbors under regimes run by guys like Hitler and Mussolini, then the next generation after them sells it out to a dictatorship such as China (another country pushing its weight around with its neighbours) for the highest price - and if you spoke out about it, you got labelled a doom and gloom merchant or a xenophobe. The greedy self interest was disgusting.

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It beggars belief about how blatant National are about selling NZ off to dictatorship like China. Making massive profits for themselves at all our expense. A good example of that self interested corruption can be seen from when John Key's sold his mansion (properties 2017 CV was 16 million) off to a Chinese business man for $23.5million. Oh and that was NZ second biggest house sale of 2017.

Article stuff : John Key sells mansion for $23.5m in what was NZ's second biggest house sale of 2017. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/118217206/sir-john-key-sell…

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he got paid for his work

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We live in society which is run by rich and power who believe in policy of I scratch your back and you scratch mine and let average Kiwi be damned as who cares.

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IO exactly. My grandad still had bullet wounds in his hands and shrapnel in his body the day he died. Now we sell out to a criminal gang running China on purpose. Hitler never worked out that people would happily enslave themselves.

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Yes had the wrong system - should have used capitalism not fascism.

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Happy Realization!

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It seems China is taking its one China policy too seriously as understood it stand only for Hong Kong and Taiwan but is slowly trying to extend.

https://zeenews.india.com/india/junkonechina-trends-globally-against-on…

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Come Election Day, note that certain members of the blue team are just foot soldiers for the CCP.

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Any links to YouTube videos with them saying ‘Comrade’ or are they smarter than the average Cindy?

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Lost decade ahead for stocks? Dalio thinks it could be.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-verge-lost…

Aligns with the high level of Shiller's CAPE which was back up at 1929 levels when the initial crash hit - given the loss of earnings it must be far worse now although given the cyclically adjusted nature of the model, perhaps won't be visible until we have the data/in retrospect.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/SP_500_Price_Earnin…

A high CAPE ratio has been linked to the phrase "irrational exuberance" and to Shiller's book of the same name. After Fed President Alan Greenspan coined the term in 1996, the CAPE ratio reached an all-time high during the 2000 dot-com bubble. It also reached a historically high level again during the housing bubble up to 2007 before the crash of the great recession.

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IO have you seen the research that sideways periods of two decades are routine in the US stock market? Its surprisingly easy to miss looking at long term charts but there have been a lot of them.

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I'm not sure if you're referring to something specifically when you say research - but yes I've spent time looking at the share markets in history in both nominal and real terms. We might be looking at low capital gains and low yields coming up until we can reduce debt loads and generate earnings - but then again I worry that we might need a debt reset to be able to achieve any kind of meaningful earnings growth.

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Nothing specific really just that it is actually routine for capital markets to go nowhere for very long periods of time. No one believes it because it hasn't happened for decades. A lost decade or two is routine. I've never lived through it so even I find it hard to imagine a world without endlessly inflating asset values (and interruptions to that being temporary affairs).

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Yes the same benefits our property investor friends have experienced (and is now firmly stuck in their minds of 'reality' but its more hindsight, confirmation and recency bias) where, since the 1980's, you've experienced falling interest rates and the benefits of the capital price appreciation because more debt can be serviced at lower and lower rates, allowing values to rise.

I can absolutely see a lost decade or two, but the assumption or 'FOMO' is that prices will keep rising like they have the last 10-20 years. Some of my share holdings on the NYSE, ASX an NZX went up significantly the last 4-5 years - like 400%, i.e. 100% return p/a. It was too good to be true. So when the 2/10 inverted I started taking profit last year and reduced my risk. Thats really 20 years worth of returns happening in 5 years, so I'm comfortable if share price's don't rise the next decade. Its just a matter of preserving capital and finding some yield somewhere to offset inflation, until it the risk/reward profile falls back in the buyers favour again (I don't think it is right now). I've still got a few shares, but nowhere near what I had in 2018-2019 so if I've got this completely wrong there will be some benefit. But if I'm right, I won't get destroyed by the next bear market fall.

The question becomes for the property investors - you've had a brilliant run, especially since around 2000-2005. I.e. 15-20 years of fantastic returns. Do you think its become too good to be true and its time to take some profit and preserve your capital? Or do you assume the past (of abnormally good returns) will continue to the future. Time will tell of course - but with the key driver of falling interest rates nearly out of fuel, I don't see it. I could see the housing market be flat or falling for quite some time (again decades like the share market).

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Congrats for thinking not a lot of people do it. I've been gradually moving to cash but went full cash (including my house) in early Feb. I read the early covid research out of China (Lancet etc) in Jan and freaked my wife out by telling her "holy f@#k, the world is freakin ending!". The early Chinese papers were high quality and super scary. They had a few deficiencies, like not counting people as dead if they died before they got into the ICU, but the direction was crystal clear.

I still have money invested but it is in my business and that has been run as conservatively as humanly possible for a long time.

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Interesting thing through all of this is Dalio and Buffett hold polar opposite views at present. Dalio says cash is trash and Buffett is holding a heap of cash.

Both are put on pedestals, but its going to blow up for one of them.

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Yes that they've both lost money this year as far as I'm aware (down 15% for Bridgewater, not sure exact % for Birkshire) I can see where they are both coming from. Dalio is looking at the US devaluing their fiat currency while Buffett is looking at it from a fundamental/value investing perspective and doesn't see anything worth buying (yet..).

I don't think its mutually exclusive however if that is what you're suggesting with one up/one down. Buffett will wait until he finds a company/ies that is/are worth buying and makes money while Dalio will remain diversified and hold commodities that rise in value with inflation/currency devaluation.

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Looks like Fed has maybe realised it has thrown moral hazard to the wind, so is winding down it's stockmarket injections: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/06/18/fed-ends-qe-total-assets-drop-liquidi…

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Personally I see the continued demand for iron ore in China as a long term plan to stock up on steel in case they decide to go to war in future. (Oz/ Brazil iron ore would not be available in that case).
There are thousands of buildings which have been constructed all over China and have been left empty. Now why would that be? Essentially all it needs is a digger to demolish them to get access to the steel reinforcing and to use an arc furnace to melt it to be re-cast into sheet steel able to be used in warships, tanks etc.

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https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-19/can-the-world-get-along-w…

Does a good job of rubbishing neoclassical economics.

Mind you, that's not hard.

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Logicthinker Check this video out to see what the Democrats get up to. Hodgetwins destroying the BLM movement in minutes.

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What video?

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It's a secret invisible link...does not use 5g towers as they spread covid.

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Its a site to look up then there is a youtube video.

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Secret squirrel stuff then. Aren't we supposed to be adults here?

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"China is reporting that electricity usage rose +4.6% in May from the same month a year ago" Hmm, just what is all that extra electricity being used on? Massive surge in manufacture for exports?

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Crematoriums running 24/7 to dispose of all the citizens that ‘didn’t’ die of CV19?

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Anytime i see 'China is reporting' i know its not true

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Whodathunk that a Banker coulda come up with such a brilliant take on Dylan's 'Tangled up in Blue'? Seems we've misunderestimated Rabobank....

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Apple re-closing some US retail stores. The US has had its head in the sand regarding ongoing COVID imo. It’s still an increasing first wave in many places. At present, stock markets are not reflecting that and hoping for a quick economic bounce back. Very unlikely, and hope doesn’t belong in investing analysis.

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With unemployment at 40,000 and increasing by the day , and as tenants come under increased financial strain, they are expected to move to cheaper properties, or move in with family. In addition, the abrupt halt to tourism and recreational travel in New Zealand has left many short-term rentals, including motels , lodges, youth hostels holiday parks and Airbnb properties, empty – which could now return to the long-term rental market. This will add to the supply of rental properties on the market, which could drive prices lower.

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Just read about parliament's new slide. If they use the price for the slide for the item they got for the money as representative of the average value for money of all government spending, then we cannot possibly have any respect whatsoever for the government's ability to look after our money in a responsible manner. Our only hope is to vote this bunch back in, and then work out ways to fleece them so that when they are chucked out in 3 and a bit years time, we will at least have something built up to protect us from the tough future ahead of us.

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