US jobless claims rise; US housing starts fall; US imports from China boom; Canada jobs decline slows; Australia gets more part-time jobs; UST 10y at 0.68%; oil up and gold down NZ$1 = 67.4 USc; TWI-5 = 70.3

US jobless claims rise; US housing starts fall; US imports from China boom; Canada jobs decline slows; Australia gets more part-time jobs; UST 10y at 0.68%; oil up and gold down NZ$1 = 67.4 USc; TWI-5 = 70.3

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news investors are on the down side of their recent yo-yoing.

In the US, jobless claims for last week came in higher than expected and the prior week's data was revised up. But the number of people now on unemployment benefits fell again and by more than expected to 12.6 mln and almost -1 mln less than last week as qualifications start to expire more rapidly now. It was a data release that knocked Wall Street. And the US dollar is weaker.

Reinforcing the feeling of atrophy, both building permits and new housing starts fell in August, below estimates and confirming a housing bounce back that never quite lived up to expectations.

It is not all negative however. The latest PhillyFed regional factory survey for September came in positive and as expected even if it is growing at a slower pace than in August.

And there are signs the US trade balance with China - already the worst ever - is about to get a lot worse with imports pouring in so fast at West Coast ports, freight operators are overwhelmed.

The latest version of the ADP payroll survey in Canada has revealed a sharp drop in employment in August although the fall wasn't as steep as they reported in July.

There were central bank interest rate decisions in five countries overnight - Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan, England and South Africa - and none of them changed rate settings. But the English did open the door to negative interest rates.

China's goal of making its currency a powerhouse of international trade is still going nowhere despite recent claims. In September it had just 1.2% of all settlements a tiny loss in two years. In contrast, the US dollar was used in 43.2% of transactions, up over two years, while the euro was used in 37% of transactions. As a pricing basis, the yuan is probably even lower.

In Hong Kong, their jobless rate held steady at 6.1% in August and they didn't report the rise in unemployment that analysts had expected.

The August labour market data for Australia was out yesterday too showing a fall in their jobless rate from 7.5% to 6.8%. More than +111,000 new jobs were created but more than two-thirds of them were part-time positions. Their underemployment rate is still over 11%. Of course, none of this is helped by the Victorian lockdown.

On Wall Street today, the S&P500 is down a sharp -1.6% in afternoon trade and the losses seem to be building. The NASDAQ is down nearly -2.2%. Overnight, European markets closed lower by about -0.6%. Yesterday, Shanghai ended the day down -0.4%, Hong Kong was down -1.6% and Tokyo was down -0.7% on the day. The ASX200 ended down more than -1.2% while the NZX50 Capital Index slipped only -0.3%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 29,961,000 and up +304,000 in one day. Global deaths now exceed 942,000 (+9,000).

Just under a quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up 43,000 in one day to 6,845,000. Active cases are little-changed at 2,510,000. Their death total is now just over 201,800 and still rising at more than +1000 a day (and now 609/mln).

In Australia, there have now been 26,813 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is only +34 more cases from yesterday and mainly from Victoria and NSW. Deaths however are up sharply however at 832 (+16). Their recovery rate is now almost 89%.

The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at just on 0.68%. Their 2-10 rate curve is firmer however at +56 bps, their 1-5 curve is up at +15 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is now just under +61 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down -2 bps at 0.89%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.16%. However, the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is lower yet again, down another -3 bps at 0.55%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$16 at US$1944/oz.

Oil prices are firmer again today, up about +US$1 to just on US$41/bbl in the US while the international price is up slightly more to just under US$43.50/bbl. And here's a worrying and irresponsible trend.

The Kiwi dollar will start today unchanged at 67.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally higher at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has remained at 70.3.

The bitcoin price is a little lower today, now at US$10,866 and -1.5% lower than this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Will the economy fundamentals catch up with stock and housing market ?

Impact of lockdown and panademic should be felt in December - March, as many had commented earlier and even government/experts are waiting as they too have no idea what the consequence of panademic and stimulus will be, once wage subsidy, mortagee defferal and stimulus ends.

Also unemployment data is crucial which now is expected not to be above 7.8%. If can maintained below 8% will be bad but not as much, as recovery will be faster but if it goes above 10% than will get worse and every percentage above will get it more messy.

So important data to watch out for in future is unemployment data.

Agree that no one knows the extent of damage to economy caused by coronavirus as is masked by wage subsidy and other fiscal and monetary measures taken by government and rederve bank.

Yesterday Fed did not announce anything new indicating that they have run out and have done all that was possible, now only way to save was for government to distribute free money.

Another valid and imkprtant question is how long can government keep on printing and distributing money, hoping that will create demand but what if it too runs out of steam - law of diminishing return.

So yes is wait and watch.

Everything that reserve bank is doing is with assumption that easy and cheap money will boost demand and has done so far in short term, specially to stock and housing market but what if it does not happen in future as expected, as now need just one catalyst and things will fall like a pack of cards in this fragile world.

This applies not only to NZ but world over and to avoid / delay the inevitable only way out left for government is to come out with new stimulus every time and the next has to be bigger than the first to cover the hole being created.

Remedy will become a disease than what.

Economic damage from lost tourism will crystallise this summer, during the peak of the would-be tourism season.


New Zealanders by themselves cannot save the NZ tourism industry. We are coming up to the time of the year where most kiwis usually go on holiday already. If anything, less Kiwis will be able to afford a holiday compared to 12 months ago.

We were / are holidaying on money saved durring the LD and Govt hand outs. That is comming to an end.

"Hey kids, instead of the bach, beach and BBQs for the next few weeks we're going to stay in a hotel and eat out at restaurants. Lets go to all those attractions the Chinese go to. We want to do our bit for the tourism industry. #teamof5million"

Said no one ever.

We got out and traveled a bit after LD to help the economy but also I think we had a it of cabin fever and needed to spread our horizon outside of our four walls.

Ditto here. Better than doing nothing, for all concerned. Auckland domestic airport chocker yesterday morning. Much smaller merry go round then pre CV19 for sure, but at least it is still moving.

If you think about it - our banks are currently insolvent without external intervention. Why are they private entities (who earn high wages) when they are being kept solvent by central bank communist type interventions? Its completely bonkers. We say that we're a free market society but it would appear that we're actually more communist than the communists.

There must be some credit given to Trump that he recognised the parlous and unhealthy dependency of the USA on Chinese imports generally. Obviously his curative approach was hardly subtle, but based on the above it has hardly worked. Making a mess out of another mess is child’s play.


4 years of the Dem's attempting to remove Trump and failing is the biggest laugh in town.
The constant undermining of Trump by the Dem's hasn't helped

Agreed. Its been cheap, tacky, petulant and constant for years now. Does anyone care what Stormy Daniels has to say these days? Didn't think so.

What amazes me is how much damage it has done to the Democrats as opposed to Trump.

And then they elect Biden to run for them who is on video stating he used his influence to sack an overseas official. Exactally what they tried and failed to pin on Trump. I'll try and find the video, I attempted a while back and it had been removed....
Edit. Found it.
And a articial about impeaching Trump, exactally what Biden openly admitted to.

If you want some good footage check out Sleepy Joes Crimes Act speeches.

Just saw this, he's not looking sharp at all a few days ago. When Ozzies Sky News is bagging him, the writing is on the wall.

Poor Biden - lost without his telepromptor

A long way to go and the cracks are more than clear that he isn't handling it well.
And in the wings waits the wicked witch of the West, Hillary Clinton.

Failed? Guy was impeached.

Who Trump was impeached? Not successfully anyway, isn't that a fail?

Yes, successfully impeached. The Senate chose not to remove him from office.

Did you read that paywalled WP article?

The charges are levelled by the successful impeachment. The Senate chose to acquit of those charges.

According to your memory, was Clinton impeached?

Not sure of what WP is, Winston Peters surely not, different subject.
Dont know about Clinton, I try and stick with the here and now.

"Oh no, I've been called out! Time to retract into my impenetrable shell of aloofness!"

Haha, classic.

You're on your own tangent there.

No tangent, two options:
1. You're a numpty. You don't have the language skills to deduce what WP stands from the context of that sentence (hint: I know you only read, and misinterpreted, the headline, but check the URL). You know nothing about the legal or historical context of impeachment, but you still act as an authority. You don't know the first thing about a president from 20 years ago. Dunning-Kruger going strong.
2. You're embodying Sartre's quote: "They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past."

Maybe somewhere inbetween.

Seriously we went from yarning to you setting a trap and you going off.
Trump won because Hillary is a war monger and Biiden is no better and Trump will win again. That is in despite the fourth years of trying and failing in their objective manufacture false PR against Trump. It really shows how bad the Democrats really are.
Get over it!

Yep, I a numpty that hasnt needed to work for the last three years because I can read between the lines of what is going to happen and act on it.
Have a good weekend off.

Nice one! Have a great weekend!

You as well. As I remember two days off went fast.

You must have really hated your job, good on you for getting out of it!

I'm just not in need of it as a crutch to feel better about my lack of a life.
My job is not what defines me.

Kezza R,

What a truly bizarre view. Nobody has done a better job of 'undermining' Trump than the man himself. If we leave aside his misogny, his racism, his extreme narcissism and his pathological lying(just a few minor character faults after all), then we can examine his systematic dismantling of environmental protections and what about his promise to Make America Great Again? Again, let's ignore the fact that America's standing in the world just keeps on falling, but what about his promise to bring back compnies and manufacturing and redress the huge trade imbalance with China? Well, the balance of trade with China just keeps getting worse.
Oh, and science knows nothing and global warming is a hoax.

What we're yarning about is that Trump is a nutter but he has done some good stuff, which flies undermines what we read in the press.
Surely it is clear to everyone that the Dem's have run a Trump hate campaign over the past 4 years...
You need to look at both sides of the story mate. Following the Dem's mass media naritive is only looking at one side.

Only losers blame the opposition - where is the Republican mass media and narrative?
Trump hasn't done anything except set the US on fire - his trade war is killing US farmers and manufacturing, his non wars and acquiescence to foreign dictators has weakened US and allied global interests and his fraudulent narcissism has doomed many US citizens to ill health sickness and death
Everything he touches turns to crap and it's not only his stupidity undermining him.
The number of Republican organizations that have sprung up to oust him is an unprecedented slur on any US Executive.(what's left of it that hasn't been prosecuted or walked out)
I find it hard to see how anyone can justify this failure of a President. He's going to jail once he loses the protection of office and his desperation is showing daily.

Trump is sitting on top of a dung heap created by the Persidents before him but somehow he's the one that created it now...
Where did the US go / get done under Obama? Sweet FA.... The next big hope for the US was a dismal failure.


When someone realises that they've been played, there comes that terrible moment when they look across at the one who's played them and sees them smiling with a "Welcome to the Real World, pal! What do you think you are going to do about it now?" look on their face. That's where the USA found itself with China 4 years back. It woke up to what had been happening to it for +40 years since Kissenger 'made peace' with China.
+40 years can't be undone in 4. Trump has started something that if the US has any sene he and/or his successors will continue. Failure to do so won't be pretty.

Indeed, it's pretty much the only thing I supported him on when he bought it up (also no wars), it never made sense that previous administrations let the China trade issue (IP theft and favourable terms) run for so long. Crazy stuff that previous administrations from all colours didn't do more about it. At the same time, I doubt he has the skills or intelligence to outsmart them. He should be taking them to the WTO, tying them up in court. Yes, those decisions take some time, but there are so many cases against them, they could be in court for a century. If China decided they didn't like the WTO decisions and removed their membership (or they were suspended or some such), it would be devastating for them.


I dislike Trump, but yes he should be congratulated on his China stance, and yes by historical standards he doesn't seem like a warlord

Contrary to the doom and gloom that the mass media stated about Trump in charge of the Red Button would bring. There would most likely be a good size war at present if Hillary had won.

He tried against Iran, but dropped nuts when things got heated.

He ran on stopping wars, so he is delivering.

He ran on whatever fell out of his mouth at the time. Low-key pathetic to fawn over a former reality TV star buffoon. I guess he annoys people who annoy you, but you do realise that there are people who hold his views, but are competent, and you don't have to check your dignity at the door?

The US population was sick and tired of decades war. Electing Killary would have given a green light to war.

First US president in 39 years not to start a war or join another countries war.

Interesting, would you say he's the least militaristic president in those four decades?

Sound this another little trap you are trying to set.
Trump just cant shut down the US war machine. Kennedy gave it a crack....

I've got no interest in arguing technicalities with someone clearly trying to set a trap. Next thing you know we are debating the true meaning of "militaristic". Cool.

I am the messenger. Jump online and tell me what part of my statement you disagree with.

Maybe Trump doesn't know what it means, I'm sure that we both do! You're kidding yourself if you don't think that he would jump at the opportunity to play strongman in a war. You play the hand that you're dealt, just like other presidents weren't challenged to respond to a global pandemic.

Facts vs opinions.

No wars. 39 Years.

You offered him to come back with facts but silence.

He's also been in office the shortest of any president in the last 39 years, I've got faith in him! He's bombing the shit out of Afghanistan and the Middle East at the same or greater clip than GWB and Obama, but good on him for pulling out of Kurdistan!

Your getting a bit angry there mate.
It's clear you don't like the real facts getting in the way of your personal opinion. He has had opportunities to play the hard man and he proved he wasnt a war monger like Obama and G W and most of the ones before him.
Trump won and he will win again, get over it!
The US Democratic Party must go down in history as the worst losers in history.

From the disclosed conversations of generals close to Trump, it looks highlight doubtful that they would ever let him push the red button. They had their concerns about the effect of their thinking on constitutional issues, but more concern for sanity and longevity.

Generals have their own agenda... Got to keep their name, budget and job current.

Beyond the conspiracy theorist tone, those apply to generals under every single president - yet it's uncommon to have them discussing whether to protect the world from an incompetent president in contravention of the constitution.

Trump isn't starting wars, the generals need war. Discredit Trump and get rid of him and get the war monger Dem's back in and greasing my ego.

Agreed. It would be remiss to see the US-China trading relationship as entirely one-sided, though. US consumers have 'benefited' from mountains of cheap crap (surely they liked it, or they wouldn't have bought it, right?) and the likes of Walmart certainly have too. US corporate earnings would have been consistently lower since the 90s without off-shoring -- and we all know Trump considers the S&P the only economic market that matters. Bear in mind his own campaign tat is all made in China.

Banks Get More Capital Relief as ECB Wants Stimulus to Work

The European Central Bank offered lenders a fourth round of regulatory relief to help massive stimulus efforts feed through to a virus-stricken economy.

Banks will be temporarily allowed to tweak the math behind a financial strength metric known as the leverage ratio to their benefit by stripping out deposits held at central banks, the ECB said in a statement on Thursday. With a looser leverage ratio for the next nine months, banks will be able to make more loans with less capital.

The reason the Fed can never hit its inflation target is the insane level of incompetence and dereliction that has actually been on full display for this last entire year. Though Aristotle wasn’t an idiot, so neither is Jay Powell, this only explains; it doesn’t in any way excuse. Link

And here's a worrying and irresponsible trend.


Any objective analysis will quickly find out that Methane is not a serious Greenhouse Gas.
Methane degrades and dissipates through the atmosphere into space quite quickly (in a period of months) relative to CO2,
Just another clickbait article by people with an agenda to support and no credible data behind it.

You do know Methane degrades into CO2 and H2O right? That's why Methane has a higher GWP index

Which would be great, if we weren't making more and more of it. Certainly if we stopped instantly producing methane, it wouldn't be a problem for long because it will break down. But as we are making more and more, year after year, those 100 methane particles that are degrading (turning into CO2 mind you), are replaced by 101 new methane particles.

Your analysis is shallow and frankly childish. It's like saying it's safe to camp on a river bed, even when the forecast is for heavy rain, because the water in the river drains out so quickly.

In the period of dinosaurs, the would must have had an insane amount of methane admitting creatures. I cant remember reading any articials that it was an issue then.

We (and other animals/plants) are superbly adapted to this environment as it is now. We have adapted to them via hundreds of thousands of years of relative stability. This was the same as the dinosaurs who lived and adapted over millions of years.

You will notice that we don't have dinosaurs. They all died out because of a big event which quickly changed the makeup of the atmosphere and led to their extinction. This has happened quite a few times in the past, the atmosphere has changed quickly due to some event, leading to mass extinctions.

We are now quickly modifying out atmosphere and are in the midst of the Holocene extinction event. It doesn't take much to put two and two together, particularly when the evidence is all around you. Use your brain and stop believing conspiracy sites or using confusing and irrelevant arguments.

I see the evidence all arround but think it's more down to humans than cows.
I was asking / discussing not arguing it. Maybe not clear in my writing style, my bad.

The NIWA model above suggests we are at field capacity for moisture. Must be someone else's farm because I know it's definitely not mine. The start of another long summer?

If you're in the north and east - you're in luck. La Nina is coming

La Nina can be very dry, it's no guarantee

That's ridiculous to equate the effects of La Nina in California - where it produces drier than usual conditions, to the north and east of NZ where it produces wetter conditions.

we have had really dry periods in a La Nina event. It's no guarantee.

Damn... and on cue - here's the rain

Snow too, mates farm in Canterbury is covered, heavy rain south of us.

It's time for a farm report. We are still very dry, my cattle are doing really well lots of weight gain. The dry must cover quite a big area as I talked to my sister in Gisborne and they are dry too. I have gone the whole of winter without a major rain event, the best we got was around 12mm earlier this month.
I was south of Hastings yesterday and there was a paddock on a hill covered in dust, I thought there must have been a tractor working the field but there wasn't it was just dust, springs have stayed dry all of this year.

Cattle markets must be looking better with demand from China, but potential huge hole in bull beef market from so many less calves being reared. I talked to an agent, he said he has 10,000 less calves being reared by his clients. Friends rearing calves are finding it hard to get contracts and buyers. This will be a huge problem going forward, rearers are the bottom of the pile and always get it in the neck when seasons are tough or a correction, I am always amazed people rear calves in this environment and take all the risk.
Following farmers in Canada I see they were 4 degrees yesterday and big frost forecast so Nth Hemisphere has turned, colour in the trees.
The regional Council has backed down on some of it's consent demands, however some of the big dairy takes around here are huge, we are talking surface takes of over 4 million m3 , around four users, lots of farmers unhappy. My neighbour stated, 'they are stealing our water,' this stream now goes dry when the big center pivot above us starts up. These big takes are really affecting river flows and yet they pumped right through last years drought, water onto grass with up to %80 evaporation.
The over allocation of this resource is a major problem in this catchment. Water quality can be very poor, the stream here flows into the tuki tuki, it had e-coli levels of at 570,000 a 100 ml. Max for swimming is 260. We still have feedlots operating with council consent. The Councilors want change, the chairman has talked about over allocation being the areas biggest problem but it's all run by management today, I feel they are far too close to big business.
Consents to take water are not ownership but get treated as such, probably by banks too, which could be at the heart of the problem.

40 years ago the Tuki Tuki was a good swimming spot in the summer. The last time I saw it, it was a a shadow of its former self.

I had a friend who was doing a fish head count for fish and game, he said numbers were plummeting, back over %50 in a few years. I wouldn't swim in the rivers around here especially not children, at least keep your mouth shut. Our stream may be bad but I hear there are worse in the catchment.

How were the Hastings shop vacancies looking?
The Tuki Tuki was fishable in summer 30 years ago. 20 years ago it was getting harder due to weed and slime collecting on your line. 5 years ago impossible and I wouldn't have wanted to eat anything that came out of there.

I don't know, we never go to town these days. It's the new 'post covid', normal.

Hastings CBD took a hell of a knock with Tomona closing and hasn't really come back from that imo.

Hastings has been on the slide for years.

Its almost as if them and Whanganui have switched places in the last 20 years. Ones gone up, ones gone down.

houses in Hastings going for it.

Andrew, the demise of the Tuki Tuki is something that should upset us all. How has this been allowed to happen? Vested interests, money? It's difficult to have any sympathy for farmers who are contributing to this.

it is caused by massive over allocation of water takes to a few very large corporate dairy farms. Massive takes,as high as 10 million M3. It's now a matter for the council to undo what it screwed up, they really don't want to go there. We are now trying managed aquifer recharge, don't think it's going to work but appears better than admitting fault.

How did this happen?

Of resources
With Debt (= growth)
Everyones to blame
Including the townies

People will do what they can get away with, not saying that is acceptable behaviour. Sometimes we just don't know what we dont know. It comes down to the Council and Govt to control it.

It's been a dry year over here with very little sustained rainfall.
I think the only upside which has give grass growth is how mild it has been.
Anyway, stick that in your GDP calculation black boxes economists.

We are the same, mild winter and we have grass, just sneaking by with 4 mm here and 5 there. I see we are meant to get 9mm today, blew like hell last night.
I was amazed how dry Taranaki was last year, these droughts are starting to cover areas that used to be drought free, the worst area around here was right up against the Ruahines, they are still short even after destocking, that's the ultimate drought free country in HB, not anymore.
I purchased a disk drill and over sowed a big percentage of the farm in short term italian rye , it really paid off this winter, that and 15 acres of regenerative crop that grew right through winter, really impressive and still have cattle behind a break on it. R1 bulls on that crop are 50 kg ahead of anything else on the farm. I had to work it up though so not a perfect comparison, even if I used roundup it, it would have been out of action for 70 days or so before i could put stock on it, which put pressure on the rest of the farm.

Anyone else notice that Trump has turned this election into a debate about the competence of the democrats and how poor democrat cities are run. He is a master of the dark arts if nothing else. The media have played right into his hands on this issue.
He now gets to sit back and watch them stumble over each other from one catastrophe to another, how did they manage to elect such unlikely candidates? Honestly is this the best they could do?

However this could just be algorithms giving me the news they think I want to read, to get more clicks and hence revenue.

Last weekend drove from Auckland to Kerikeri, inland via Kaikohe. Completely new territory for me. Rolling hills looked reasonably lush/green but compared to Canterbury pastureland , which I know quite well, thought stock was fairly thin on the ground? Anybody enlighten me?

talking to farmers around here many are well back on numbers but have purchased younger stock. One was back 400 head of two years olds to kill this spring. Others have killed all their beef cows and old ewes. Numbers will be well back, last summers drought was a monster ,some of my north facing country is just recovering now. Fortunately we had some really good years leading up to this.

Foxglove. You asked for enlightenment - your navman must be broken or you had a couple of spare hours - going via Kaikohe. Regarding stock numbers - apart from a couple of characters from the long ago past we don't do sheep. What eczema didn't kill the flies got. Had a brutal drought last summer that went on and on, some ran out of water. Farmers destocked due to a lack of grass or lack of money. Cattle store market weak, farmers nervous.

Tks, understood, should have been up with that myself. Yes we had time to spare so took the long road. And glad we did. Peaceful country, quiet roads, enjoyable. Kingfishers though are a lot fatter & plentiful than the few we have in our vicinity.

If the Dem's win we are all going to see their incompetence. Four years of mounting a hate campaign against Trump and failing. They one thing they have in their collective brain is to get rid of Trump, after that they will realise all they have is a collection of sore losers.

This comment gives us good insights into what algorithms are pushing your way.

What part of Califorina do you see as working?.
VDH, NF & JC are thinking the opposite.

RickS, I know that algorithms are present so I do my best to research the other side of the arguement....

It's actually impossible to escape the 'Orange man bad' media hype.

Given how widespread the sentiment is have you considered that it may not be just media hype. That maybe orange man actually is bad.

You only have to follow his Twitter feed to know the lunacy currently ensconced in the WhiteHouse.

No one disputes that he's a nut job. If you want to throw stones in his direction, you need to take a balanced look at the alternative. Biden is a worse nut job, not healthy enough to take it on. All backed by the Dem's who have failed at removing Trumo which speaks volumes.
Either way the US is screwed.

All backed by the Dem's who have failed at removing Trumo

Haha, I do see the new trend on the American right is to victim blame: "It's all the Left's fault for not stopping our corruption!"

Politians.... all just as bad as the self centered idiot that came before them and then it turns into a 'your team, my team' narrative when we all know nothing will change no matter what flavour they are.

In general they're pretty comparable, yeah.

But every now and then someone elects a morally compromised serial bankrupt reality TV personality and everyone has to lose their dignity figuring out how to spin things as positively as possible while performing mental gymnastics.

I'm not throwing stones - just observations. Trump behaves like he has a drug addiction and moves like he has had a stroke. Not a fan of Biden but at least he's physically fit and not a malevolent humorless bully. The US will be fine once the small minded grifter is gone from the White House.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump gets back in. I can't see him going full term if he does.

Great Netflix watch, especially recommend for those who doubt the power of social media of Ru

My daughter watched it and liked it, i need to watch it before I forget.

Just add it to your favourites or watch later list or whatever its called.

Watched it yesterday. Pretty good watch.

Yep - particularly found interesting the correlation/causation graphic between targeted social media and the polarization of US political views.

Netflix have lost it.
Not cute.

Thought this was a very good macro view/summary of where we are at by Dalio:

Just me or do share markets look like they're about to tumble again?

Highly likely, it won't take much to turn the Robinhood investers away in droves.
Isn't it the third downward that is the trigger mass exits historically and we've had two fairly sizable ones already?

90% of stocks charts showing a years trend now show a clear drop starting. The cats finally accepting gravity exists. The money printing fought a good fight but it was always fighting a losing battle. House prices are slow to catch on too, but they will.

The (US) money printing stopped way back (3 June) per Fed Assets, with perceptions of ongoing 'Fed put' maintained by jaw jaw since. (& click on 1 YR button)
Recent remarks suggest Fed might have been embarrassed the jaw jaw pushed things too far, inflating asset prices in astonishing time (compare 1933-1936 rally with 24 March-2 Sept 2020), detaching Wall St from realities on Main St, and massively distorting already extreme inequities.

Here is a little something from and for the part time minister of health
I see Dr Shane Reti has declared his ambition to lead the National Party. Who do you think their next leader should be?

Minister of Health
Minister of Health
Minister State Services
Leader of the House.

How did this get on this too do list?
Mind you we agree Dr Shane would be a great Health Minister too.

Here is something Chris could focus on..

Malaysian media are reporting that among the five imported cases in Malaysia yesterday, two were people returning from New Zealand.

Calls into question testing as the Doctor says.
PCR test update.
& how many cycles are they calibrated too.

Am sure I saw discussion happening from Newsquawk ZB suggesting Shane Reti for National Party leader instead of Judith, as a serious prospect in shorter order.