Eyes on pandemic & US election; FDI falls sharply; China starts census; China's economy expands; other Asian economies mixed; UST 10y at 0.87%; oil down further but gold holds; NZ$1 = 66.2 USc; TWI-5 = 69.8

Eyes on pandemic & US election; FDI falls sharply; China starts census; China's economy expands; other Asian economies mixed; UST 10y at 0.87%; oil down further but gold holds; NZ$1 = 66.2 USc; TWI-5 = 69.8

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news trade uncertainty is growing as the pandemic surges again, and that uncertainly may be compounded by politics.

This is the week of the US Presidential election. Investors eyes will be firmly on it because either outcome, or even a contested outcome, will likely have a significant influence on investment and economic prospects one way or other for a long time to come. And those outcomes will be filtered by a fast-worsening pandemic in most large western economies. Hardly any scenario seems positive.

European and American equity markets are gloomy. They ended last week with outsized losses. And the S&P500 futures trading suggests when they restart this week, more declines are expected.

And that is on top of large pull-backs in Q2 that weren't fully recovered in Q3. And now Q4 is starting with a stumble.

The OECD is reporting that foreign direct investment sank sharply in the first half of 2020, down by -50% to its lowest since 2013. Pullback of investment by foreigners into the USA fell by -74% and drove the trend. Their data shows a -60% decline for New Zealand so investment here was lower than the average. There was an even larger proportionate decline for Australia.

American data on household incomes and spending from before this latest pandemic crisis shows both were recovering in September from the March and April hits. But without a fiscal program to cushion incomes this time, it could get very ugly to round out the year. Hopefully their election result will allow something to be done.

In China, they have started their once-in-a-decade census, a truly massive undertaking.

And China's official PMI data for October was released over the weekend and their factories expanded in a modest manner again. However, their service sector is expanding faster and at a good rate. In fact, this is the fastest service sector expansion in six years. And these official readings have tended to be more conservative than the private sector PMI monitoring during 2020.

Japanese industrial production rose more than expected in September from the prior month but is still -8% lower than a year ago.

In Singapore, their latest survey of business confidence in Q3 was still very negative, but not quite as much as in the prior quarter.

Taiwan’s economy grew with unexpected speed in their third quarter, with GDP rising +3.3% year-on-year and the highest rate in more than two years. It was growth built on both strong exports and a rebound in consumption after successfully taming the pandemic.

But Hong Kong reported a year-on-year GDP decline of -3.4% for its Q3-2020 period. However at least that was not as tough as their Q2 result.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 46,245,000 and by nearly +1 mln since Saturday. They now record highs daily now. It is very grim in Russia and Western Europe with serious stress on their hospital systems. Sweden is also getting a new huge spike. The new British lockdown promises a grim Christmas there. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,198,000. A sharp rise in deaths is now expected by this time next week now this third wave has taken hold.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +174,000 since Saturday to 9,418,000 in an accelerating trend. The number of active cases is higher at 3,115,000 so many more new cases more than recoveries. And a new trend is the sharp rise in hospitalisations. Their death total now exceeds 236,000 and now rising at much more than +1000 per day.

In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 27,595 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +13 more cases than we reported Saturday and mainly in NSW. Reported deaths are unchanged at 907.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp today at just on 0.87%. Their 2-10 rate curve has moved steeper again to +72 bps, their 1-5 curve is also a little steeper at +26 bps, along with their 3m-10 year curve, now also steeper at +79 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today up +2 bps at 0.85%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.21%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is also unchanged at 0.54%.

The price of gold has held over the weekend at US$1879/oz but still a -2.3% loss for the week. However, gold is the commodity to watch if the US election result is confusing.

Oil prices have stayed very low after last weeks sharp decline and are now at just over US$35.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now over US$37.50/bbl. These prices are nearing those we saw in March at the start of the first global set of lockdowns.

And the Kiwi dollar is little-changed this morning from where we left it at the end of last week at 66.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are a little firmer at 94.3 AUc which is actually a three month high. Against the euro we holding at 56.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed at 69.8.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$13,802 and +2.0% higher than where we left it on Saturday. Over the past week it has risen +5% in US dollar terms, and +6% in New Zealand dollar terms. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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115 Comments

10
up

Wall street will crash 20% this week... get ready... its gonna be insane and the shit will start to hit the fan in new zealand because of it... so many people are oblivious with their heads in the sand...

10
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Our old neighbours in NJ are provisioned up to stay at home, safe and sound for a week. Not now for CV19 reasons entirely, but in fear of the election aftermath. What on earth has the USA become?

I'm not sure... just hope trump has a solid win otherwise I see a great depression like scenario happening... stagflation then depression.... the democrats will pump even more stimulus into the market which can only go on for so long before it causes a catastrophic situation... Biden is also in the pocket of the CCP and I fear for my friends in countries like Taiwan and phillipines... also hong kong... new zealand will also be under threat...

33
up

What a load of drivel.

10
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Have you lived in any of these countries in Asia??? I have and I can tell you most support trump as the threat of china is huge and very real... typical sheltered kiwi you are I would suggest...

26
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"just hope trump has a solid win otherwise I see a great depression like scenario happening" do you have you any idea how nuts that's sentence is?

President Obama entered office in early 2009 in the teeth of the Great Recession. Not surprisingly, the deficit exploded from $459 billion in calendar 2008 to over $1.4 trillion in calendar 2009. As the economy recovered the deficits shrank to a low of $442 billion in 2015 and was $585 billion his last year in office.
President Trump on the other hand was handed an economy that was growing. In 2017, his first year in office the deficit grew to $666 billion, was $984 billion last year and is projected to be over $1 trillion in 2020 at $1.02 trillion. This would be a 74% increase in just four years and going forward the Federal deficit could escalate to $1.7 trillion in 2030.
Sorry to ay this but you need to stop with your jibbiserish statements.

One word: covid...
Use your brain... US economy before this was amazing...

One country is at fault here: china...

24
up

Read the data. It was turning to s##t well before covid.

Trump: presiding over the largest increase in the US federal debt, than any other US president.

Have you actually been to the US? The sight of hordes of people shooting up in the streets isn't pleasant.

BTW, the stimulus is largely from the Federal Reserve at present. Which would happen regardless of which party is represented in the White House, congress, the senate, the state goverments etc

23
up

Frazz he can't stop. These comments ceased to be a place for majority fact-based discussion some time ago.

Agree..must be something in the air?

Chemtrails maybe?

They might have dusted off HAARP and firing it up for the lols.

My origins are irrelevant. However since you ask, make assumptions and belittle Kiwis - no I am not Kiwi. I am British/Irish, and my wife is from Hong Kong. And as a person with family in Hong Kong, I know full well the dangers of the CCP. It's your assessment of Trump and the economy I take aim at.

You do realise most people in Hong Kong support trump for a very good reason... unless you are CCP lacky...unless you want a CCP lacky and walking corpse (with dementia or alzheimers) in power... Biden...

Comrade Xiaomowang? Where are you? Here's the perfect thread for you.

I wonder what the odds are of a Trump landslide?

Huge... I have several (about 10) friends in the states... 7 out of 10 of them are latino, filipino and African American... all voting for trump.. 2 of the 3 Americans i know of European heritage are voting for trump...

Lets wait for the outcome then and hold of any predictions huh?

Trump loses popular vote but wins electoral college vote easily... (one that matters)... blm movement, antifa cause (both terrorist organisations) chaos and trump sends in army which teaches them a lesson and they skulk back to the holes which they have crueled out of with their tales between their legs...

26
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You really are deep down that rabbit hole...

Lament. A coherent boomer brain is an increasingly rare thing these days thanks to social media https://www.huffpost.com/entry/internet-baby-boomers-misinformation-soci...

During the 2016 [American] election, users over 65 shared more fake news than any other age group and seven times more than users between 18 and 29

Another reason why the euthanasia bill passing is bonkers. Wait until the young Turks see the data and start to really turn on the "Summer" generation.

15
up

BLM and Antifa, terrorist organisations? How many people have they killed? Look it up.

You’ve been conned.

They looted and vandalised plenty of businesses, though

There were numerous deaths caused through their antics also...

Looting and vandalism, yep. Not terrorism.
As counterpointed to the *hundreds* killed by far-right militia types in recent years.
And please provide evidence of these deaths. I know of one.

I would consider lighting buildings on fire as terrorism.. they are terrorists and should be treated as such.. crazy gunmen have caused issues in America in recent years... but right wing militias??? Hahhahaha I don't think so...

That's arson, not terrorism. There's a reason why we use different words for things.
"Crazy gunmen have caused issues..." What? Like murdering people, with bullets? That's an "issue", while burning down a shop is "terrorism"?

https://www.businessinsider.com/right-wing-extremists-kill-329-since-199...

They're both unacceptable behaviours, that's the point

"Unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims"
Looting and vandalising civilian property sure matched with this definition, coupled with anyone injured during the riots.

Agree.... I believe biden will receive voter backlash cause of these events...

20
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It's not cool to wait for data and outcomes. All the cool cats make predictions these days based on their fave youtube channel or random disgraced doc blogger.

Let's take a moment to remember the months of relentless posting about Sweden's herd immunity and the miracle of hydroxychloroquine.

12
up

Let’s also take a moment to remember how Sweden changed overnight — from being a socialist welfare-state nightmare at imminent risk of being ruled by Sharia law, to being the home of plucky, commonsense Vikings and defenders of Western civilisation— once they adopted a public health policy that provided some scanty intellectual cover for the utter incompetence of Donald Trump’s response.

Lolololol

Where is Profile btw?

You've nothing to worry about then, do you? Your 20% Wall Street crash won't come to pass.

And "shit hitting the fan" in New Zealand? Yeah nah, she'll be right.

It will happen because of the uncertainty... the drop will be further if biden gets into power...

It will happen because they have been kicking the can down road. Exporting $$ and importing stuff instead of making its does not work forever.
Covid has just brought forward the inevitable. Trumps 'involvement' is that in times when the US needs to unify to re-balance their economy, he is deliberately creating internal chaos. That is why he has to go.... he wants to be a 'Putin'.

And you think the deputy leader of the CCP party (biden) is the answer??

24
up

Russia loves you Kiwilad45. You have responded exactly as they hoped you would.

Having a ten-bob each-way bet huh?
Trump's gonna bolt in, and
Wall Street's gonna crash 20%
Make your mind up

10
up

being pragmatic and not emotional, I'm wondering if Trump is doing better that we think. Some of my liberal friends from Ca cannot stand Kamala Harris and won't be voting.

Trump landslide... in college electoral votes... (one that matters) closer in popular vote....

I was lucky enough to travel across America for a month last year, virtually everyone we met were supporters of Trump. We tended to go through the southern states where we would be more likely to meet Trump supporters but overall the Trump support was overwhelming. I will be wearing my Trump 2020 T shirt on election days. Ironically my tshirt was made In Honduras and I will be celebrating with Mexican beer.

Nice!

Having spent 3 or 4 months each year in Vegas talking extensively to thousands of Americans from all over the USA I have one very surprising observation. It is very unusual to hear a vocal Trump supporter. The strong, polarising, divisive comments invariably come from the Democrat supporters, which is probably a surprise to most.
IMO if you strongly support either Biden or Trump the men in white coats need to take you away in the white van.

US Election: The wrecking ball on political correctness may win but chaos will ensue first.
https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2020/10/31/editorial-don...

14
up

"Has Mr. Trump handled the pandemic perfectly? No. But no one masters a pandemic. "

Except for New Zealand, Taiwan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand etc etc, i'd argue Australia too,

And on a relative basis, say deaths per captia, the rest of the world may not have 'mastered' it but the the US response is clearly one of the worst in the world.

I find pro-trump points tedious and uninformed but let me share a gentle opposing view to your comment.

To master a pandemic I think you need to somehow meld the government response with the natural culture and view of government and authority held in that country. Perhaps the asian countries you mention don't fully trust their government but yet they see the value in cooperating with their overall plan. Perhaps in NZ we got lucky and acted soon enough to demonstrate to the % of citizens with government distrust, that we could eliminate the virus.
The US is certainly a cosmopolitan culture of many different type of people who don't trust their govenment's ideas or ability to execute, they trust only in the dream of becoming the one who says 'screw you' to the system and still wins. To meld a response into that culture.. surely impossible. ...beyond some system of fully isolating the vulnerable and letting the rest decide their own destiny.

sure allot of Americans would not cooperate with a full lockdown like we had. But Trump hasn't 'molded the resposne to the American pysche', he's actually inflamed the situation, encouraging people to congregate and not wear masks. There is a world of difference between 'not mastering' and what Trump has done..

"I find pro-trump points tedious and uninformed.."

Ditto the anti Trump media
They somehow extrapolate that this single man called Trump has created racism/covid/the economic Ponzi etc etc ... and that his removal will solve something
If so he is nothing short of a miracle worker

Of course Trump didn't invent racism, covid, or financial ponzi ecomonics. But do you want someone in charge who tries to lessen those things, or someone who fans the flames?

The slow-coaches and laggards are still pouring in
Two jumbo-jet loads a day
Passenger arrivals
https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-statistics/
On second thoughts it must be the NZ-AU bubble jumpers
Its a wonder the MIQ has the capacity to cope
Wonder how much has been received in accommodation levies

https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-statistics/
We have had a net loss in migration for more than 6 months now... but I agree close the borders... at least non citizens
(permanent residents and residents) should have to pay the full cost of quarantine.. about $7200 I've heard?? Deters these individuals from coming back to New Zealand... nz citizens should have the privilege of having it paid for at such a time... ie more incentive to become a nz citizen and not just stay a permanent resident...

I very much doubt that the true cost of quarantine is over $7k. If it is then the government is being screwed by the hotels. The majority of people staffing these facilities, taking tests etc are not even nurses.

I heard in mentioned when it was started by Megan woods... $3200 with government subsidizing the cost.. real cost about $7200 from what I remember of the broadcast... the hotels are screwing the government...

Remember that some (not all) of these hotels set up for managed isolation are 5-star hotels where room only typically goes for, what, $300 - $450 per night, on average? Then factor in all of the security brought in, the transportation from the airport, the medical staff, the medical tests, all food for 14 days etc. Then no doubt the hotel bills the government for all the extra PPE staff have to use, professional cleaning of rooms and goodness knows what else. It adds up pretty fast. $7,000 for two weeks seems quite believable to me - in fact I'd bet at some of the better hotels it could go well beyond that and get closer to 10K.

Agree
its basically an ongoing tourism subsidy

If the Govt allowed 12 year olds earning $30 per week delivering flyers to screw them (by claiming the wage subsidy part time flat rate of $350PW) would there be any doubt that savvy hotel owners have also screwed them?

You can't blame the kids for bad Government policy.

I'm not. I thought my post made it clear who I am blaming.

Are there any official figures as to how much in accommodation payments has actually been collected? Bet it is very low.

So far in the 'post-election news that wildly came out after the election and not before for some reason' we've had:

- Cabinet was being briefed on border testing numbers and being told the regime was incomplete by officials despite Ardern saying she 'didn't recall' being told what they asked to happen wasn't happening yet
- The Government had sold 105 state houses despite berating National for selling state houses in their previous term and selling more if they were elected.

I wonder what else is in the 'would have been nice to know that before polling day, how terribly convenient' pot that we're still yet to find out about.

yes I'm surprised there wasn't some more forensic digging by the press at the time of that whole, Jacinda: we were told it was happening, Ashley: We told them it wasn't happening. dissonance

And what press were you expecting to have such diligence?
Follow the reporters on Twitter, see the fun they were having, not doing what you thought they would be.

newsroom

Reporters left of centre, cheerful cheerers of the PM.
- look at the coverage this morning on the labour greens doc signing.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/pro/greens-hope-for-power-and-principle-in-la...

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamSachdevaNZ?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp...

Demonstrates my point.

A political reporter reporting on the formation of govt today, sorry I really don't see any left wing bias, he would have written the same about a John key cabinet reshuffle.

The issue was in the “if elected we will provide $75 million of support to media companies”.
Can you blame the media companies for turning a blind eye to Arderns failings with a bribe like that?

We need to make a plan stat about how we're going to deal as a country without a vaccine https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/29/it-may-be-time-to-reset-expectations...

I'm happy with reduction in immigration. We just need to lift our exports and add more value to the existing products we export... Relying on tourism is for developing and poor countries...

kiwi. Got the what, can you answer the how.
And your path to higher productivity is?

Mass immigration in the last decade has not increased gdp per capita... whats makes us more productive and thus wealthier per person... ie gdp per person... we have actually gone backwards.. it has decreased... we have lifted gdp which always happens with mass immigration as you have more consumers, but not gdp per person... so productivity has actually decreased under mass immigration... employers only want it so they can suppress wages.... government wants it as it is what originally pumped up the housing bubble and is one of the tools they can use to keep housing prices artificially high... house prices will eventually drop if we keep the borders closed... dropping the ocr will only work for a certain time.period and will do more harm than good...

10
up

I agree. We need a less is more approach towards migration.
I see a lot of merit in raising the income thresholds for visa applications.

The current threshold at 45k for essential skills work visa and 53k for skilled migrant residence is a joke and has wage suppression written all over it. No way a migrant worker making just above that threshold is paying enough in taxes to fund capex and opex arising from the marginal population increase.

China has commenced its 7th 10-year Population Census
The 6th Census had a population increase of 6%
New Zealand's immigration intake in the last 5 years was 500,000
A 10% plus increase

so halving the population is the answer
then halving it again
etc

Not through mass immigration... investment in all forms of capital... ie education, research and development and infrastructure..

...investment in all forms of capital... ie education, research and development and infrastructure..

But ANZ CEO Shayne Elliot (ht-bw) says there is little demand for credit and the bank was forced to invest in low yielding government bonds - NZ banks' collective balance sheet contracted in the month ending September 2020.

The government needs to lead these initiatives for investment in capital... not just printing money for the giant ponzi scheme of housing... make it easy for banks to lend for these capital investments, and hard for banks around lending for existing residential property...example: ban bank lending to investors of existing residential
Property... and allow easy and cheap lending for investment in capital that is productive

Hmmmm... no sign of government directives, hence:

by Audaxes | 2nd Nov 20, 11:00am

Westpac New Zealand extended 62% of loans to housing to record a $3.727 billion increase from last year, while lending to all other categories combined fell.

Snap your fingers and problem solved aye, simple as that, pie in the sky?

We need qualified smart people to lift our export productivity as you suggest. NZ is starting to run up against the problems caused by a couple of decades of poor investment in primary and secondary education, tertiary institutions trading off quality for overseas $$$, and complete destruction of apprenticeship training. There's a good reason why employers increasingly prefer 3rd world immigrants over kiwis - they work harder and are often better educated. Problem is they also bring their cultural baggage, which we'll sort out over the next 200 years if the human race survives that long. But short term does not look rosy.

It's ok Donald Trump announced last week that he has solved the pandemic already. Quit your worrying the Don has fixed it already. I'm surprised Jacinda hasn't opened the borders already.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/523013-white-house-science-office-...

**MAGA_feelz_intensify**

While I am no Trump fan, the media are pretty fake. To me this sentence does not imply he has defeated Covid, just that he has engaged the correct people to defeat it:
According to a press release intended to highlight the administration's science accomplishments, the Trump administration said it "has taken decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease."

what about "ending the COVID-19 pandemic" bit, what does that imply to you?

and he may have 'engaged' the right people, but he then proceded to ignore and sideline them.

The white house has removed that press release, but there's a copy here:
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-6bc5-d2df-adff-6fdfff5c0000

"Ending" does not mean "ended". Maybe they do have reason to believe it is ending (really not sure what that is though!)
Agree he is useless and that press release is full of crap, but I don't agree that that it claims they have defeated Covid.

Don't forget his promise to have a vaccine ready before election day.. So i guess that means today. Can' wait to see how many people they manage to vaccinate before the election.

I almost want Trump back in to continue the debasement of the US he has started - 4 more years of bullshit and promises with nothing but a police state to show for it. Go the US gangster culture - it will eat itself.

Queensland News.
Great comment on what happened in Queensland Election.
Like NZ no surprise, no surprise the Covid leader got back on bigger vote.
And same assisted dieing type deals.

https://youtu.be/IQMD2xG1cUk
Queensland has been tracking better covid numbers than NZ. Populations about the same.

I wonder how many (non New Zealand) international flights come into Queensland though compared to NZ? I'm guessing most land in Sydney or Melbourne.

American data on household incomes and spending from before this latest pandemic crisis shows both were recovering in September from the March and April hits. But without a fiscal program to cushion incomes this time, it could get very ugly to round out the year.

While the GDI accounting makes it seem like that $1.21 trillion in subsidies came out of taxes received, the real world truth is that the federal government borrowed the cash for them (and other expenses) from the Treasury market.

In short, though these are huge numbers, all that cash has only gone to offset some of what is already an even bigger hole in the economy. It isn’t being added to an economy nearing recovery, or even moving toward true recovery, all those funds are in lieu of real economic processes that still aren’t happening.

The “not happening” private economy, that’s deflationary especially when employers continue to act as they have in holding down the labor market (amplifying the deflationary pressures of a wounded economy, rather than stoking inflationary ones consistent with a system legitimately close to being rehabilitated).

Instead of revenue and investment being received by the business sector, the bottom line of NOS, companies are getting paid by cash that has been borrowed via the government from the bond market (which has overvalued safety and liquidity) because it can’t be sourced from anywhere else; it isn’t like the government is taking from parts of the economy that are working (thus, paying more in taxes) and merely redirecting to those pieces not working (which is what a subsidy really means). Link

Economy may be downand out but no words to describe the crazy housing market in Auckland. Thanks to RBNZ - mission accomplished.

A 3 bedroom unit in Meadowbank with CV of $940000 and agents expectation as the market is hot was over a million or may $1050000 if vendor is lucky fetched 1.309million and even tbe RE agent is stunned as free standing 3 bedroom house in that area were going for 1.2 mlion in this high market.

30% to 50% rise in just 2 or 3 months and all supported by RBNZ and government.... Think this is real and only economy in NZ and RE agent mentioned that is bought by FHB.

If this continues for more time........... WoW.

Will the new owner be happy with the price they paid in 6 months ?

that's the 1.5million dollar question. I can no longer come up with a mental model for how these prices are being determined. I assume (completely baseless), that the new owner is not anticipating another 20% boost within the next year.

Are those of you living in Auckland noticing more homeless people in the streets, particularly in the CBD? I had a guy knock on my window, while waiting at the lights in New Market, with a cardboard sign asking for food or coins. The last time I saw this was in a developing world metropolis. Strange how the media seem to have forgotten the homeless problem since Labour have been in power.

Johannesburg? And next up comes "Don't stop at the red light if you can get through safely", as those cardboard signs turn into something all the more threatening.
(One of my clients was making prefabricated 'homes' - cardboard boxes for the homeless; that waxed type of material that used to come with milk cartons. Maybe there's an eagle-eyed entrepreneur in NZ that can use that model for those that can't afford better accommodation?)

Auckland will have slums within 10 years ... like they have in South East asia if the housing crisis is not dealt with...

10
up

I think most people are sick of hearing about the issue and not seeing any solutions. I know I am.
It's clear that whether its Labour or National in power makes little difference, both parties throw around token words but do little of substance and depth. And that isn't going to change so we might as well move on.

Labour are going to try really hard, build a bunch of state homes... and see the state housing waiting lists and homelessness continue to climb regardless, and wonder why.
There will be no saviour, we're in too deep. We'll end up like Spain -- overbuilt, empty houses everywhere, and simultaneously a huge homeless population.
Property owners don't have to be economically rational if they don't want to. Those buying properties now for $1m -- they won't sell for $650k, even if it's the rational thing to do, they'll hold on for grim life and live in poverty to service the debt. The market mechanisms that should theoretically kick in at some point aren't strong enough to overcome psychological conditioning.

"There will be no saviour, we're in too deep. We'll end up like Spain -- overbuilt, empty houses everywhere, and simultaneously a huge homeless population."

Correct
there is always an end to Unearned Income
Eventually all those freeriders called property investors cant be propped up any further

The only solutions would take the form of
- introducing law that houses can only be owned by an actual Person (not companies) who is a resident
- introducing law that a single person can then only own (max) 2 properties

We arent short of houses
we are short of rules which dont play into the hands of those who leverage and releverage for multiple property ownership

But its all too late now

Shout to Auckland Council!
Just shows progressives are clueless.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/429641/ten-years-since-auckland-coun...

Because Former Franklin District mayor, Mark Ball said so?
Its always the outer districts complaining that most of money is being spent in the city. Perhaps that is because most of the money comes from the city.
To be honest its hard to work out why they were included anyway. The super city should have been the 4 Auckland cities, not Franklin, Rodney, etc.

One thing you certainly notice in Franklin is the forests of noxious weeds (woolly nightshade and privet) adorning the roadsides. Used to be Franklin DC could keep them under control, not so Auckland and Waikato.

The super cite has been better at the big infrastructure projects (the old 4 cities would just bicker about them and get no where). But the smaller stuff is being neglected. Would like to see more money / responsibility for the local board. Even if it is as simple as them reminding the council to come spray the weeds.

The media have only just woken up to property, never held KiwiBuild to account, and forgot about child poverty and homelessness despite both being election issues last time around. Weird!

True, although I think most people understand that those issues are not going to be fixed (or even improve much) in just 3 years. But at the end of this term if there is no real progress I doubt Labour will get away with it.

Do you think child poverty would've been "fixed" in a 4th year of a 4 year term?

Probably not. But there definitely wouldn't be any excuses after 2 of those.

Its been a dire issue for 10-15 years. The media have given it plenty of coverage.
The politicians are clueless and arrogant, whether red or blue.
The crisis is going to get much worse, but I am in shrug shoulders mode now. Got better things to worry about than something I have no control over and which our 'leaders' have no serious intent of addressing...

About 80 Tribesmen gang members from all over the country rode into Christchurch on Friday as part of a national gathering.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/123266505/tribesmen-gang-member-killed-in...

Either way the US election will be close, one thing is for sure there will be post election chaos.

I will go against popular opinion and say that if Trump wins there could be chaos. If he loses I see a smooth transition, albeit amidst a serious amount of standard Trump bluster.

Which is understandable considering the Democrats are still fairly centre (we would consider them right wing!), Trump is pretty extreme.