Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news markets have turned more cautious today.
But first up, there was another dairy auction, and it was both surprisingly positive - and negative at the same time. Analysts had expected a -3.5% fall in prices this time following the prior event's -2% fall. But in fact prices rose +1.8% in US dollar terms, bolstered by strength in SMP (+2.5%) and WMP (+1.8%). However, the rising New Zealand currency has completely wiped out those positives and in local currency, overall prices were down -0.9%. Taking a longer term view, in fact overall prices are still in a narrow range that has been in effect for more than four years. If Fonterra stays with its re-found commodity focus, it will always be the servant of the currency.
In the US, retail sales growth for October came in lower than expected and much lower than for September. The October year-on-year gain only looks reasonable because of earlier month rises and not because of any strength in October.
And things are not improving in November with the Redbook weekly monitoring reporting lower month-on-month results.
US household debt rose in the September quarter, reversing the small retreat in the June quarter. And their net worth recovered fully after the big Q2 stumble. The net worth gains (+US$8 tln) far exceeded the debt rise (+US$87 bln).
US industrial production for October reported negative year-on-year changes (-5.3%), but if there is a silver lining it is that the decrease was less on this basis than for September.
Despite both exports and imports falling, Singapore turned in a strong and rising trade surplus in October. However for a country like Singapore, the decline in total trade is not really a good thing.
In New York, the S&P500 has slipped by a marginal -0.3% in midday trade today. Overnight, European markets were marking time as well and little-changed. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its session up +0.4%, Hong Kong was up a minor +0.1%, and Shanghai closed down a minor -0.2%. The ASX200 had a bumpy trading session again due to its tech but stayed open and recorded a daily gain of +0.2%, while the NZX50 Capital Index also closed up +0.2%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 55,244,000 and a +681,000 rise from yesterday. It is grim in France, Russia, the UK, Spain and central and southern Italy with very serious stress on their hospital systems. It is even worse in Belgium. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,331,000 and up +11,000 from yesterday.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +170,000 since this time yesterday to 11,561,000. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus. The number of active cases is surging at 4,285,000 and that level is up +91,000 in one day, so many more new cases more than recoveries. Hospitalisations jumped +10% in just five days. Their death total now exceeds 253,000 and continuing to rise by more than +1000 a day. The US now has a COVID death rate matching Bolivia, Mexico, Italy and the UK of 762/mln.
In Australia, they are not getting any significant resurgence. There have now been 27,756 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +6 more cases and only one new one in the new South Australia cluster. Only 80 of their cases are 'active' now (-6). Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.
The UST 10yr yield will start today down -3 bps at 0.87%. Their 2-10 rate curve is flatter at +70 bps, their 1-5 curve is also flatter at +27 bps, with their 3m-10 year curve following the flattening trend +79 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down -1 bp at 0.92%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also firmer by +1 bps at 3.31%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up a sharp +8 bps at 0.92%.
The price of gold has fallen -US$10 this morning from this time yesterday and now at US$1886/oz.
Oil prices are lower today and by about -$0.50/bbl so it is under US$41/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just over US$43/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar is little-changed today at 68.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are a little firmer at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down slightly at 58.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed at 71.7.
The bitcoin price is a very strong +6.0% higher this morning from this time yesterday, now at US$17,570. That is a rise of almost exactly +US$1000 in one day and more than +US$2000 in one week. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».