Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some surprisingly strong trade and American data.
In the US, their early PMI readings for November have come in much better than expected. Their factory PMI came in at a six year high, while their services PMI was just as strong.
And that improvement has been reinforced by the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for October.
On both sides of the Pacific, authorities are investigating why their traders can't get access to shipping containers. China sees its exporters with major issues hitting them hard, US authorities claim the same. A sharp spike in global seaborne trade seems to be behind the stress. But it isn't just a feature of the Pacific trade, it is an issue spreading worldwide. And freight rates are rising fast too.
Singapore confirmed its economic decline in the Q3 of 2020 was marginally less than first estimated. But they have posted consumer price deflation again in October and that has dragged their year-on-year down below zero.
In Australia, the first of their PMIs have been released and they are positive. Their factory PMI rose to nearly a three year high, and their services PMI is at a 4 month high. Both are at good expansionary levels.
In New York, the S&P500 opened the week with a good gain, but it has evaporated now and that market is flat. Overnight in Europe, they posted marginal declines. Yesterday, Tokyo was closed, Hong Kong was up a marginal +0.1%, but Shanghai had a very good day, up +1.1%.
A third COVID drug has now been trialed with promising success. This one is slightly different because it prevents infection rather than the disease. And it can be stored at normal refrigeration temperatures.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 58,820,000 and a +478,000 rise overnight. It is still very grim in Russia, the UK, and Italy with great stress on their hospital systems. It does seem to be easing in Belgium, France and Spain. And although tiny by comparison with others, both Japan and South Korea are on edge as their clusters grow again. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,391,000 and up +7,000 from yesterday.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +135,000 in their Sunday count to 12,606,000 and at their higher pace of infection. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus with its leadership in denial and resisting any proper response. The number of active cases is surging at 4,889,000 and that level is up +85,000 in one day, so many more new cases more than recoveries. Hospitalisations are up very sharply especially in the Mid-West. Their death total now exceeds 263,000. The US now has a COVID death rate that now matches Brazil of 792/mln.
In Australia, they are not getting any major resurgence. There have now been 27,835 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is +14 more cases overnight. Now 92 of their cases are 'active' (+2). Reported deaths remain unchanged at 907.
The UST 10yr yield will start today up +4 bps at 0.86%. Their 2-10 rate curve is a little steeper at +69 bps, their 1-5 curve is also marginally steeper at +28 bps, with their 3m-10 year curve steeper too at +78 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +1 bp at 0.88%. The China Govt 10 year yield is down -4 bps and now at 3.31% while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 0.81%.
The price of gold is has fallen sharply today, down -US$33 to US$1837/oz.
Oil prices are slightly higher again today and by another +US$0.50 or so to just on US$43/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just on US$46/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar has slipped marginally to 69.1 USc this morning. Against the Australian dollar we are holding at 95 AUc. Against the euro we are also stable at 58.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 will start today, unchanged at 72.
The bitcoin price is also down just marginally, now at US$18,346 and a -0.8% dip. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».