Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the vaccine rollouts seem to be a long way from affecting the economic consequences of the surging pandemic.
In the US, the number of actual jobless claims filed last week were 935,000 (although most reports use the seasonally adjusted +885,000 number). The number of people on these benefits is now 5.5 mln and a decrease of -312,000. The rate which people are falling off as qualification periods end is really starting to ramp up now and at the worst time for millions - in a pandemic, in winter, and at the holiday season. It is building to a gruesome social crisis.
The Congressional support package is still not agreed. Although it includes good boosts in support payments, it is being held up because Republicans want to ensure it excludes help for state and local governments.
US housing start data rose in November (+1.2%) and is still at a high level, but the rise wasn't as much as for October (+6.3%). Building permit data was strong however.
Not strong though were the two regional Fed factory surveys for November released overnight. The PhillyFed one reported a pullback in their expansion, and the KansasCity Fed one reported lower expansion levels. Both were much below expected levels.
In Canada, the ADP employment report signaled an expanding workforce, their first since February and a huge improvement from October.
In China, they have seen a surge in the number of canceled bond issues following a wave of defaults by state-owned enterprises that has put the domestic debt investors on edge. This comes after a period of very high issuance levels in 2020 of a record NZ$2.7 tln in bonds.
And China now says it will provide financial support for some "key" foreign companies with investments there.
In Hong Kong, prime office rents are down more than -20% so far in 2020, and brokers say they could fall by more than -15% next year on top of that. Hong Kong is ending its year in stunted shape after Beijing effectively invaded it.
Singapore's export weakness continued into November with both month-on-month and year-on-year falls in export trade.
There were a series of central bank reviews overnight, from Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. None of them made any rate changes or other notable policy revisions.
In Australia, they released a positive jobs report for November, bolstered by growing full-time work.
In New York, the S&P500 is up +0.3% in its opening session today, still awaiting definitive action on the promised stimulus extension proposal. Overnight, European markets were higher by about +0.5% although London was -0.3% lower. Yesterday, the large Tokyo market closed its Thursday day session up +0.2%. Hong Kong rose 0.8%, and Shanghai was up a strong +1.1%. The ASX200 rose an even stronger +1.2% on the day while the NZX50 Capital Index ended its Thursday session up +0.5%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The 'news' is all about vaccine rollouts but the global tally just keeps on rising, now 74,468,000 and +771,000 more overnight. At this rate, we will easily top 100 mln by mid January. It is still very grim in Russia, the UK, Eastern Europe, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia. It does seem to be easing further in Europe generally although not in the UK, Sweden, or Germany. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,654,000 and up +13,000 in one day as death rates spike everywhere.
But the largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +244,000 in one day to 17,421,000. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus. The number of active cases is still surging and now at 6,729,000 and that level is up +79,000 on a day, so vastly more new cases more than recoveries. Their death total now exceeds 314,000, up more than +4000 in a day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 950/mln and approaching the disastrous UK level (971).
In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 28,072 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +13 more cases overnight. Now 54 of their cases are 'active' (+4). Reported deaths are also unchanged at 908.
The UST 10yr yield will start today at just over 0.94%. Their 2-10 rate curve is marginally steeper at +81 bps, their 1-5 curve is up to +29 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also steeper at +87 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today unchanged at 1.00%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also unchanged at 3.32%, but the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up a strong +6 bps to 0.95%.
The price of gold is up by +US$31 today to US$1885/oz, mainly because the US dollar is much weaker.
Oil prices are marginally higher again and now just over US$48/bbl in the US, while the international price is to just under US$51.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar is much firmer at 71.5 USc and a +¾c gain as the US dollar sinks. Against the Australian dollar we are relatively little-changed 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 58.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is back up to 72.8 and almost exactly where it was at this time last week.
The bitcoin price has risen again and is again at a new all-time high, now at US$23,601, a +13% surge from this time yesterday. And in local currency, not only has it blown through the NZ$30,000 mark, it is now above NZ$33,000. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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63 Comments
This article aged well. AMA quietly reversed it position on HCQ.
"In the future, I believe this misbegotten episode regarding hydroxychloroquine will be studied by sociologists of medicine as a classic example of how extra-scientific factors overrode clear-cut medical evidence."
https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-…
"A proposed regimen to treat COVID-19 for Stage 1, includes 10 days of hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, zinc, and on occasion Vitamin D"
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-10/nov20-handbook-addendum.p…
Yes but if Trump recommended it, it must be bad...
More evidence of trump delusion syndrome.
You even see it in this article about the stimulus package being held up because the republicans dont want to agree to funding for state governments. The reality is the Dems are trying to push through funding for these states under the cover of the stimulus package. If they withdrew it, the individuals who really need it would already be getting the extra support.
Yep totally agree. The only thing Trump is focusing on now is trying to pardon himself and his close associated (And maybe his family), the rest is all grift to payoff his massive debts. Everything else is literally crumbling around Trumps ears including his failed businesses. BBC Atlantic City to auction off demolition of former Trump casino. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55357512
Actually it seems the AMA considered a new proposal on HCQ, but rejected it:
https://www.abc10.com/article/news/verify/ama-stance-hydroxy-covid-unch…
From your "fact" checker link: "Did the American Medical Association quietly rescind its opposition to prescribing hydroxychloroquine to COVID-19 patients?"
Blow me down with a feather - the fact checker didn't bother to read the AMA document. Note the words "resolved" (they even bolded it for you) and "rescind". Always pays to read the root document not some fact checker spin.
"RESOLVED, That our American Medical Association rescind its statement calling for physicians to stop prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine until sufficient evidence becomes available to conclusively illustrate that the harm associated with use outweighs benefit early in the disease course. Implying that such treatment is inappropriate contradicts AMA Policy H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,” that addresses off label prescriptions as appropriate in the judgement of the prescribing physician"
"...A proposed regimen to treat COVID-19 for Stage 1, includes 10 days of 27 hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, zinc, and on occasion Vitamin D (6); and 28 29 Whereas, This regimen is not being advocated for Stage 2 and Stage 3 COVID therapy;"
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-10/nov20-handbook-addendum.p…
I posted this last night but for those who missed it, Nelson councils have let costs on the Waimea dam run away, now looking at doubling rates and borrowing 50 million to cover costs and its still not finished and no doubt more of the unexpected to come.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123725529/tasman-ratepayers-may-face-a…
What to do with councils? We need a MOW to do roading and stop the rort by private roading companies. The days of councils having being able to tax land and make open ended commitments leaving ratepayers on the hook needs to end. The debacle of Transmission gully needs to be a learning experience not just brushed under the carpet.
Our roads around here are falling apart we need new water infrastructure, new sewage ponds, how does a small rural community front up with 50 million for a new sewage scheme, even before the %100 cost overrun?
Local council wildly escalating indebtedness and squandering of the public purse is presenting a quagmire and a financial threat to the viability of commerce and citizens well-being alike. Regional councils are very much exacerbating that because there is a demarcation line between the two bodies allowing one to blame each other for their own deficiencies. And then we have central government(s) expediency in harbouring infrastructural costs locally, that traditionally had been borne by tax payers not rate payers.
Cant agree with all the above comments enough. When there are no consequences or repercussions for being wrong, Councils will take no responsibility and will spend ab lib, as its not their money.
All they have to do is just keep raising rate, ratepayers can just magically come up with more money, no problems!
Central government need to pull their finger out and actually see what is happening in the regions, most places that aren't large cities are really struggling and its only going to get worse as more and more people, especially youngins looking for work opportunities, migrate to town.
They cant just mandate rules and regulations such as the three waters shit without having a plan to help small towns finance them, but that's exactly what they have done.
A rates bill is like the annoying uncle or distant cousin who turns up to the family Christmas function. Reminds us all they are still around, pisses most people off, then disappears again.
For so long they've been pouring ratepayer money into funding the nice to have add-ons then throw some numbers around about economic impact/benefit created. But omit to balance that out against all the other events and nice to sees that their ratepayers go and spend money at in other regions. It's a zero sum game. And they up fine themselves or the regional council fines the local council or vice versa when they spill some sewerage again. And where did that money come from to pay the fine?
Try and drive down costs by tendering out services, contract in a service provider from another region who's undercutting the locals, end result ratepayer money going out the region. But it's a cost saving. Great.
And all the while, local council voter engagement keeps sliding.
I drive past those big roading projects and I do some numbers in my head, D8 bulldozers 700k 800k ,big digger 600k , couple of scrappers, grader or two perhaps a mill each, 20 machines maybe 15 million, a few trucks but you can lease those, 50k for a GPS system, 200 to 400 litres of diesel each a day. Then it's just wages, we could save a fortune, those machines have a 10-20,000 hour life these days.
Main thoroughfares in Christchurch repaired after EQs are now a patchwork of repairs and dig ups for services.No paving lasts nowadays for more than three years. Side streets well they are on the never never plan and “community consultation” must be completed beforehand. In Sumner for example the Main Street nice pretty pavers, don’t mention what they cost have had to be dug up and correctly re-laid, twice. In excess of $90,000 ratepayers money paid to consultants to decide nothing more than that teal is the ideal colour for the buses. Visually impaired can’t see em though and ditto too for other road users. Reckless,feckless wastrels unaccountability for all to see except them that what know best in power.
Yeah but don't worry, we will print $128b and give it to banks and asset holders.
We could use that money to build a new MOW and basically build 75% of the infrastructure deficit we are in. Instead, we will give it all to the wealthy.
What a f#%ked up country we live in. We happily print money to give to the wealthy and scoff at the idea of giving it to everyone (helicopter money like in many other countries) or using it to fund infrastructure. I am continually flabbergasted by the idiocy of our leaders.
People in public office know they will be membered and re-elected on their support for vanity projects.
Who remembers the quiet guy who voted down spending on nice to haves?
We remember the guy who supported the stadium, not the guy who supported the waste water.
And we are now paying for it - made worse of course by plugging in 6 new apartments to a system built for one.
Thats the problem with the whole system, its based on hugs and kisses and nice to haves that are popular and gets votes. No one votes for the prudent person looking ahead and planning for the future because that's not glamorous. Its just like a high school popularity contest where the jock wins and the smart studious students get ignored lol.
Reminds me of two new houses built on a hill in Dunedin in the 70s. For one the original owner invested a lot into field drains around the structure. Covered over, unseen. The other didn’t but created a lovely tiered garden lawn set up, looked lovely indeed compared to the other, only problem though, first heavy rain, flooded basement and garage.
The United States of America is now on a knife-edge to becoming a Socialist state if the senate is lost to the Democrats Then, almost certainly, given the background of the people being proposed for executive office, it would very soon after that become Communist. This is exactly what China has been working towards with their deliberate release of the Chinese Virus, which has now killed over 1.6 million people world-wide. The strategy has been wildly successful for them beyond their wildest dreams in sabotaging the Trump Administration, which had been so successful in reigning in their world domination ambitions and creating jobs and a prosperous America again. A Socialist/Communist USA would then collaborate with China in destroying what is left of the USA and the free world.
Tradersam,
Given the idiocy of your remarks, I Must assume that you are being ironic. For a start, trump promised to that he would make the coal and steel industries great again, but both have continued to decline-sharply. Can you tell me what has happened to the US/China trade deficit? Surely by now, trump's Trade War should have resulted in a massive swing to a US surplus, but in reality, the deficit has just kept on widening. Meanwhile, he has done his utmost to gut the Environmental Protection Agency and what else? Of through malice and sheer incompetence, has contributed to the deaths of many thousands of citizens from Covid. There is one great success-the number of rounds of golf he has managed to squeeze into his 'busy' schedule. Very impressive.
"gruesome social crisis"
Gruesome seems an odd adjective to choose to describe falling into poverty. At first I thought it was being used in relation to a high death toll whereas most people in the US wont know anyone, or know anyone who knows anyone who wasn't already at death's door, who has died from the virus. Perhaps concerning or sobering would be a more appropriate word to use?
This report from the UK is a good watch:
How the pandemic is pushing people into poverty
I spent a lot of time reading the comments. Many were scathing of people's lack of preparedness for a 'rainy day'. Comments coming from people on very low wages who always knew life could be unpredictable. The UK doesn't sound all that marvelous judging from the comments.
No, gruesome is hyperbole when used to describe a loss of income.
Oxford definition: causing repulsion or horror; grisly
So not really appropriate when it comes to job losses or loss of benefits. eh?
Appropriate possibly when describing physical symptoms or death tolls. If you were reading a history book and it began to describe an epidemic as gruesome you would expect to read about pus filled boils, heads exploding or something like that.
Given the context, the use of gruesome is not hyperbolic. You might more frequently encounter it as you described, but it is not limited to physical descriptions of harm or loss of life, just as horror is not limited to fear of death. The idea of many people losing their livelihood "at the worst time for millions - in a pandemic, in winter, and at the holiday season" is pretty horrifying and repulsive, given the consequences this has in such a society. We are severely lacking here, but conditions over there for the majority of people when they lose their income and benefits are arguably far worse.
Children made it to Bluff and we made it home. Very dry north of Dunedin, in fact it started drying up on the way from Gore to Dunedin. North Canterbury covered in grass up to your waist. Got home to a farm going brown but tonnes of grass. Markets are very unsettled lots of uncertainty, friends are being very cautious, playing it safe.
I think the new regulations are putting a damper on farmers enthusiasm, a lot of it is the unknown, so many farmers are sensitive to anyone telling them what to do and touching on private property rights, I am one of them. However I think David Parker and his nitrate tax is on the right path. Our problems here are with a few large corporate-ish irrigated dairy farms, some with over 10 million M3 surface water takes and a handful of feed lots.
I watched large centre pivots in the south Island putting on 6-7 mm an hour in dry winds with evapotranspiration probably running at 9-10 mm, just slowing down the drying process.
Other than that we have all the wheels on at present, with five girls there is normally a wobble somewhere. Youngest is chomping through her law degree, Violinist is working at Bunnings, grandchildren are shooting up, I am one of only a few friends who have grandchildren around, most have children overseas chasing careers. Covid means we will all be together for Christmas this year.
Enjoy your time together Andrew. I worry about FHB who think they mis out. We bought dairy farm in 2008 and still that farm on today's market is not worth what we payed for it back then. I'm happy doing the farming and can make a bit of money, but how would that be with a house that doesn't make you any money.
Andrew, before you start dumping on farmers with irrigation you need to get your facts straight! Have you read Parker's water reforms? He has openly admitted that he does not care if his plans are wrong (actually just plain stupid) and unworkable, he only wants to be seen to have done something! Your comment regarding pivot application rates and evaporation are way off the mark! As a farmer you should think carefully before putting the boot in!
I drove past centre pivots which put on around 6 mm a day, I looked up evapotranspiration rates in a dry westerly, I doubt half that water even made it to the ground. Do you have figures? ( I have an irrigation consent). The huge surface takes here are reducing river flows concentrating nutrients. Large dairy conversions on light gravels are causing troubles for all of us. I think taxing Nitrates is a good idea but I have very low leaching.
Andrewj
Centre pivots drop the water down from less than fours metres and so evaporation rates should be low. Overall water application rates with pivots are much lower than for gun-type irrigators or surface systems. Extender arms on some pivots for watering corners are less water-efficient than the main pivot. Solid set is great for corners but more expensive. Evapotranspiration rates in Canterbury are around 5 to 6 mm per day (not hour) in mid summer and most pivots are designed to put on about 5mm per day (or 10mm if on a two-day cycle). Some farmers have to make do on a little less than that. Nearly all farmers now operate their pivots off a smart phone - including all the corporate-types because water-use efficiency is a big deal. Many farmers also use underground tape that measures soil moisture electronically. Many of the current systems are still not perfect but there have been huge improvements of water-use efficiency in the last 20 years. Pivots also give big reduction in N leaching relative to either gun systems or the old surface systems which have almost disappeared, at least from Timaru north. These reductions are recognised within Overseer which is the key (albeit still flawed in some important ways) monitoring tool.
KeithW
Hi Keith, I had a friend who had cows with centre pivots, he put the water on even in the wind just to slow the drying down. His farm was on light soils and used to be a lamb fattening block. He was one of the farms with a large surface take.
Around here it is a bit different, the regional council thought the aquifer was much bigger and overallocation is now the major issue, along with a few other problems associated with intensification..
(Long time reader, first time commenter...)
I'm pretty sure we live near you, but on the other side of the hills so we have a big view to the West. It's becoming disheartening watching rain sweep in over the ranges but never actually make it to our recently-sown paddocks (annual crop). We lost a bit of topsoil during the recent high winds as the paddocks had been tilled a couple of days beforehand. We're fortunate in that we get the run-off from the hills so our land sustained a crop last year with no irrigation required but the top dried off quickly this year.
We're only a small operation and just starting out so we're well down the list when it comes to obtaining contractors, our hay paddock is nearly eye-level in places and turning to seed. Given our relative water abundance we're considering just growing hay for sale, then grazing over the colder months. It's not going to make us rich and it's not exciting but anything we can do to help out the local farmers is better than nothing.
Im not sure hay is economic any longer, in fact I'm sure it's not. I gave up after contractors continuously turned up too late and I got rubbish dry hay, I have learnt to farm around feeding supplements in winter, it's grass on the shoulders of the season that's most profitable, thats why dairy farms add nitrogen then. Talk to Q-labs, Raymond has the numbers regards hay.
Thanks for the contact info. I have a decent supplemental income, the land itself is more for my sanity outside of the office, and hopefully for future philanthropic ventures, so it's not necessary for it to support us financially. As long as it covers its own costs anything over and above is a bonus. Early days still.
Interest rates staying low for next couple of years is what economists are still telling us. Not everyone is agreeing with that.https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/509820-potemkin-economy-china-mo…
When is Science not science?
- water flows and people wanting to steal water....
What if there is no [note authors description of science based on race type] science that supports Māori World view.
https://mobile.twitter.com/taramcallister4/status/1339369694885605376
Freshwater twitter: what is a good paper that disputes the stupid idea that water which flows out to sea is "wasted"? Pls RT
Woah woah woah, wasted?!
Yes it's a very common argument used by people who want to steal water.....
That’s not really a scientific judgement, it’s about different values and worldviews. So you could look at writings regarding Te Awa Tupua or the Waikato-Tainui deed of settlement for the Waikato river (which sets out kaumātua kōrero about the river)
I know but there will be science which supports what we know from a Māori worldview... fighting white people with their own white science and all
The view that water is wasted isn’t science though
I never said it was science just a narrative used to suit. I think these are the type of people would respond better to western science........
https://mobile.twitter.com/taramcallister4/status/1339499446912995329
When you think about the logistics of vaccination it's quite frightening what we must achieve within the timeframes available. Many experts and vaccine developers are talking about not being sure if the vaccine is effective for more than six months. That means New Zealand might need to deliver over 10m vaccinations per year, assuming that we move to a one shot vaccine that might take 15 minutes of human time to administer (not just vaccination but all the administration and making sure staff training is current) You are talking about 2.5m hours of human time. The average full time employee in New Zealander works 1762 hours/year. You might need to employ about 1400 front line health staff just to hit that goal.
Even if some percentage opt not to have the vaccination it's not going to be something your local DHB can do off the side of their desks.
Logistics, what about delivery record here by our team.
https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/a-measles-epidemic-in-new-zeal…
'A complete debacle': Flu vaccines about to run out despite Government's claim all Kiwis can get them
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/05/a-complete-debacle-f…
It broke my heart to see the PM stand and peddle mistruths about the flu vaccine this year.
And wait there is more....
Our Socialist PM been caught short again.
It was never as described.
Perfect PR, unrelated to reality.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/433132/govt-to-pump-almost-3-billio…
The government is pumping another almost $3 billion into its Covid-19 response after a report identified failings with its testing strategy.
The report highlights shoddy communication, a lack of clear leadership and confusing processes.
The government is now setting up a new central response unit to oversee the overall response.
“Oh, the jobs people work at! Out west near Hawtch-Hawtch there's a Hawtch-Hawtcher bee watcher, his job is to watch. Is to keep both his eyes on the lazy town bee, a bee that is watched will work harder you see. So he watched and he watched, but in spite of his watch that bee didn't work any harder not mawtch. So then somebody said "Our old bee-watching man just isn't bee watching as hard as he can, he ought to be watched by another Hawtch-Hawtcher! The thing that we need is a bee-watcher-watcher!". Well, the bee-watcher-watcher watched the bee-watcher. He didn't watch well so another Hawtch-Hawtcher had to come in as a watch-watcher-watcher! And now all the Hawtchers who live in Hawtch-Hawtch are watching on watch watcher watchering watch, watch watching the watcher who's watching that bee. You're not a Hawtch-Watcher you're lucky you see!”
Yep. The US now includes nuclear as green tech policy.
Now just await the steinlager add to confirm.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/16-12-2020/this-steinlager-ad-distorts-t…
By highlighting only the actions of New Zealanders, Steinlager’s ad reinforces colonial ideologies.
Nuclear power is the future. People that cant see this are blinded by emotions. Unlocking energy sources is what has driven the development of the human race, from fire (wood, coal etc) to oil to nuclear. Its all about energy density. And it is the cleanest available, all waste ever created has been captured and stored. Not like fossil fuels whiuch just pump it into the atmosphere to disperse untracked. over 5 million people a year die from FF pollution, but you dont see the media reporting on that do you.
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