Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the vaccine rollouts seem to be a long way from affecting the economic consequences of the surging pandemic.
In the US, the number of actual jobless claims filed last week were 935,000 (although most reports use the seasonally adjusted +885,000 number). The number of people on these benefits is now 5.5 mln and a decrease of -312,000. The rate which people are falling off as qualification periods end is really starting to ramp up now and at the worst time for millions - in a pandemic, in winter, and at the holiday season. It is building to a gruesome social crisis.
The Congressional support package is still not agreed. Although it includes good boosts in support payments, it is being held up because Republicans want to ensure it excludes help for state and local governments.
US housing start data rose in November (+1.2%) and is still at a high level, but the rise wasn't as much as for October (+6.3%). Building permit data was strong however.
Not strong though were the two regional Fed factory surveys for November released overnight. The PhillyFed one reported a pullback in their expansion, and the KansasCity Fed one reported lower expansion levels. Both were much below expected levels.
In Canada, the ADP employment report signaled an expanding workforce, their first since February and a huge improvement from October.
In China, they have seen a surge in the number of canceled bond issues following a wave of defaults by state-owned enterprises that has put the domestic debt investors on edge. This comes after a period of very high issuance levels in 2020 of a record NZ$2.7 tln in bonds.
And China now says it will provide financial support for some "key" foreign companies with investments there.
In Hong Kong, prime office rents are down more than -20% so far in 2020, and brokers say they could fall by more than -15% next year on top of that. Hong Kong is ending its year in stunted shape after Beijing effectively invaded it.
Singapore's export weakness continued into November with both month-on-month and year-on-year falls in export trade.
There were a series of central bank reviews overnight, from Indonesia, Taiwan, the Philippines, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. None of them made any rate changes or other notable policy revisions.
In Australia, they released a positive jobs report for November, bolstered by growing full-time work.
In New York, the S&P500 is up +0.3% in its opening session today, still awaiting definitive action on the promised stimulus extension proposal. Overnight, European markets were higher by about +0.5% although London was -0.3% lower. Yesterday, the large Tokyo market closed its Thursday day session up +0.2%. Hong Kong rose 0.8%, and Shanghai was up a strong +1.1%. The ASX200 rose an even stronger +1.2% on the day while the NZX50 Capital Index ended its Thursday session up +0.5%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The 'news' is all about vaccine rollouts but the global tally just keeps on rising, now 74,468,000 and +771,000 more overnight. At this rate, we will easily top 100 mln by mid January. It is still very grim in Russia, the UK, Eastern Europe, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia. It does seem to be easing further in Europe generally although not in the UK, Sweden, or Germany. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,654,000 and up +13,000 in one day as death rates spike everywhere.
But the largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +244,000 in one day to 17,421,000. The US remains the global epicenter of the virus. The number of active cases is still surging and now at 6,729,000 and that level is up +79,000 on a day, so vastly more new cases more than recoveries. Their death total now exceeds 314,000, up more than +4000 in a day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 950/mln and approaching the disastrous UK level (971).
In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 28,072 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +13 more cases overnight. Now 54 of their cases are 'active' (+4). Reported deaths are also unchanged at 908.
The UST 10yr yield will start today at just over 0.94%. Their 2-10 rate curve is marginally steeper at +81 bps, their 1-5 curve is up to +29 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also steeper at +87 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today unchanged at 1.00%. The China Govt 10 year yield is also unchanged at 3.32%, but the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up a strong +6 bps to 0.95%.
The price of gold is up by +US$31 today to US$1885/oz, mainly because the US dollar is much weaker.
Oil prices are marginally higher again and now just over US$48/bbl in the US, while the international price is to just under US$51.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar is much firmer at 71.5 USc and a +¾c gain as the US dollar sinks. Against the Australian dollar we are relatively little-changed 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 58.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is back up to 72.8 and almost exactly where it was at this time last week.
The bitcoin price has risen again and is again at a new all-time high, now at US$23,601, a +13% surge from this time yesterday. And in local currency, not only has it blown through the NZ$30,000 mark, it is now above NZ$33,000. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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