Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with a sense that more positive economic data is starting to assert itself.
Today is a public holiday in the US, President's Day (or what used to be known as Lincoln's Birthday). Markets are closed there. Parts of their Mid-West are also closed due to a very cold blast of winter weather. And that is raising global oil prices along with rising Mid-East tensions. Markets are closed in China as well for their Spring Festival break. So the big international news flow is muted today. But there is some we should take notice of.
Canada's housing starts came in positive for January and their December data was revised higher.
Canada's manufacturing sales were also positive, this data was for December. And it was better than expected and reversed the decline for November, and more. Sales of wood, coal and oil led the improvement, so perhaps it isn't be a long-lasting uptick.
Japanese industrial production slipped much less than expected in December and this is being seen as a bit of a turning point. They were still lower to be sure, but remember we have previously reported the icon machine tool order levels for January were positive.
And Japan has surprised analysts with a much better Q4-2020 economic performance than expected. There was growth (actually) when a decline was expected. More interesting was that private consumption grew well and didn't fall away as much as expected from the strong Q3 jump. Overall, these are quite encouraging results for the world's third largest economy. (The world's fourth largest economy, Germany, didn't bounce back quite as robustly as Japan, so slipped on a relative basis.)
Singapore also reported Q4 GDP results overnight and they too were better than expected, even if they were tamer than the Japanese improvement. They say they expect a "4% to 6%" level of economic growth in all of 2021.
And Singapore home sales rose to their highest in more than two years in January, with buyers rushing in amid speculation that the government may take steps to cool the market.
Going the other way and getting worse was EU industrial production in December in a disappointing but not unexpected reversal.
New York equity markets are closed, but European markets were open and they rose a positive +1.5%, with London up +2.5% and Frankfurt the laggard, up just +0.4% overnight. Yesterday Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for Spring Festival, but Tokyo set the positive tone for the Europeans, up +1.9%. The ASX200 ended up +0.9% but the NZX50 Capital Index was down on struggling earnings reports, -0.6%.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising but at a slower pace, now at 108,970,000 and up +315,000 in one day. The pandemic seems to be easing in some places now although that may just because it is the weekend and counting systems are delayed. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,403,000 and +7,000 since yesterday.
New research shows that Beijing, Russia, Iran and Donald Trump were all key purveyors of COVID conspiracy theories, designed to destabilise public perceptions of what was actually happening.
More countries (88) have started their vaccination programs. About 160.7 mln doses have been given so far (no update over the weekend). There is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +59,000 over the past day for their tally to reach 28,269,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is clearly some easing. The number of active cases fell sharply overnight and is now just on 9,546,000 and -14,000 fewer in one day, so less new infections again than recoveries. Their death total is up at 497,000 (+1000) in one day. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1497/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1724) where deaths are also still rising (117,000) but a bit more slowly now their vaccinations are rolling out.
In Australia, their community control is impressive but Victoria is in a snap 5-day lockdown again as the UK strain may be in the community there from a border breach. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,898 and only +6 more cases overnight, +2 in the community and the rest new arrivals and all in managed isolation. 41 of these cases are 'active' (+8). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday at just on 1.21%. Their 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at 110 bps, their 1-5 curve is still at +43 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is holding at +118 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +6 bps at 1.33%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.26%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up +7 bps at 1.38%. Markets are clearly looking past the current lockdown and still seeing an RBNZ that will focus on rising inflation pressures in 2021.
The price of gold will start today down -US$4 at US$1820/oz. Platinum rose above US$1300/oz for the first time in six years.
Oil prices are up a bit more than +US$1 and are now at just under US$61/bbl in the US, while the international price is just under US$63.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar opens today little-changed at 72.3 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are lower at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are at 59.6 euro cents and unchanged. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed again, now at 73.7.
The bitcoin price is down -1.3% from this time yesterday and is now at US$48,483, although it is still flirting with the US$50,000 level even if it didn't reach a new high in the past 24 hours. Volatility remains high at +/- 3.7%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.