Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news other than the New Zealand lockdown. We start this week with the bond market volatile, some key commodity prices wavering, and a stronger greenback.
[Please note, the wrong podcast episode was loaded above earlier. The correct one is now above.]
But first, China’s February factory activity in has fallen back to its weakest expansion since the pandemic disruption a year ago - and that is per the official data. Its factory expansion is barely on track. Meanwhile, its service sector activity has fallen in the same way. This slip is perhaps more than just the Spring Festival disruption because exports orders fell back into contraction. But a small recovery is expected in March.
And official data points to a sizable rise in disposable incomes in China last year despite the adverse economic impacts of the pandemic. The average full-year disposable income in China in 2020 was ¥32,189 or about NZ$6900. This is an increase of +4.7% compared to 2019, or an inflation-adjusted increase of +2.1%. Given that their overall economic activity grew +2.3% in 2020, this is a lower share for workers.
Chinese house prices rose in January in most major cities and are up between +2.9% and +4.4% year-on-year in Beijing and Shanghai respectively. The range across the country is between a fall of -2% and +14% in Yinchuan.
China is grappling with its demographic issues and may update its retirement age policies soon.
And China continues to face higher food prices with notable rises for rice, corn and soybean prices since the end of the Spring Festival in commodity trading. But other commodity prices fell at the end of last week.
Japanese industrial production made a rebound in January, according to official statistics. They are now only down -5.3% year-on-year after a better than expected +4.2% rise from November.
Singapore's industrial production growth is also staying quite elevated in a pattern that has lasted for three consecutive months now.
India reported it was out of recession in its Q3-2020 GDP data, and analysts expect its Q4-2020 growth to be positive too. But that is likely to leave the overall 2020 decline exceeding -7%. However a swift growth recovery is now underway there.
In the US, all eyes are on inflation tendencies, the driver of some substantial global market pricing changes over the past week. And the US PCE, the US Fed's preferred measure of inflation, came in at +1.5% pa and higher than the expected +1.4%.
In the same data release there was an unusual spurt in disposable personal incomes, up +11.4%, and almost all drive by the January disbursement of the US$600 per person stimulus payments. And that drove an unusual rise in consumption spending, up +2.4% in a month.
In the US Congress, they are on course to pass the US$1.9 tln Biden stimulus plan, after a last minute roadblock to a minimum-wage increase. Given the good recovery underway anyway, there are voices that worry this may be overdoing it. This worry compounds inflation rise expectations.
And the US has changed policy and is now on board for a global digital tax arrangement being progressed by the OECD.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett says ‘Bonds are not the place to be these days’ (p5). He warns of a 'bleak future' for debt investors. His enterprises reported operating earnings fell -9% in 2020, largely because of an -US$11 bln writedown of his Precision Castparts business.
The Chicago PMI took a bit of tumble in its February result. It is still expanding fast, but the rate of expansion eased this month quite noticeably with a sharp drop in new orders.
The US January merchandise trade balance came in with another large -US$76.4 deficit with exports down -1.1% and imports up +3.8% from the same month in 2020.
In Canada, there is a growing consumer and official backlash developing over the use of "palm oil" products in dairy feed - a major issue for them as most herds are managed in barns.
While China is mulling an application to join the TPP, the new US administration says it will take its time with its own reassessment.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising and at a faster pace, now at 113,925,000 and up +718,000 in two days, so no letup globally. But it seems to be easing in some notable places in the first world. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,528,000 and +16,000 since Saturday.
More countries (117) have started their vaccination programs. About 240 mln doses have been given so far (+12.4 mln in the past two days). There is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +139,000 over the past two days for their tally to reach 29,204,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is clearly an easing there. And the number of active cases fell overnight and is now just on 9,047,000 and -59,000 fewer over the weekend, so more recoveries that new infections again. Their death total is still rising however but at a much slower pace and is up at 525,000 (+4000) in two days. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1579/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1803) where deaths are rising a bit more slowly now their vaccinations are rolling out.
In Australia, their community control remains impressive. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,970 and only +12 more case overnight, but with zero new cases in the community and the rest new arrivals, and all in managed isolation. 73 of these cases are 'active'. Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.
[We plan to reduce our daily detailed coverage of the pandemic spread starting in March. But if you have feedback on this, please add it in the Comment facility below.]
The UST 10yr yield is lower today, down -4 bps at 1.41% and retreating from the 1.56% it reached earlier last week. The US 2-10 rate curve is flatter at 128 bps. Their 1-5 curve is sharply flatter at +65 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also flatter at +137 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down -2 bps at 1.73%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.30%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is also unchanged but staying up there at 1.91%.
The price of gold starts today holding at its sharply lower level of US$1736/oz.
Oil prices are soft today, down about -50 USc and are now at just on US$61.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is just under US$64.50/bbl.
And the Kiwi dollar opens at 72.3 USc and -¾c lower that this time last week. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at 59.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now down at 74.
The bitcoin price is now at US$43,689 and down a sharp -8.5% from this time Saturday. There is a clear bias lower at the moment. Volatility in the past 24 hours is still very high at +/- 5.2%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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102 Comments
This government continues to show no ability to organise or project manage anything!
Look at the traffic delays this weekend following lockdown. Think of the impact of people caught up in those delays not to mention the carbon footprint.
Where is the plan to open our borders with Australia. She can’t have us in controlled isolation forever.
It may well be that folk globally make the call to abandon Covid avoidance/repression, in a desperate attempt to kick-start what they regarded as BAU.
But BA-until recently-U, is in trouble on other fronts. I find it ironical that such a site hosts such a Paper by default (says a lot about how much the MSM has dropped the ball) but Complexity is worth contemplating:
https://dieoff.com/page134.htm
Covid and Climate and refugee-streams and the need to identify others as 'terrorists', are all part of the same thing.
True, but the paper also indicates that there is real benefit to preventing excessive complexity. A clear example in NZ is that many socio-economic issues are being increasingly discussed with a racial aspect. But race is not ultimately a determinant, despite what some would have us believe. However if we use race as a basis of policy then we introduce a level of complexity that will ultimately work against us increasing division. As it stands it is also clear that the avoidance of some necessary complexity also has an overall negative impact on socio-economic outcomes.
Wow - I wish I'd written Murray86's comment about race. Being part of a multi-ethnic family it seems as if every other article is trying to split my family into 'white' and 'brown' and that seriously bothers me.
There are some issues that get harder the more you work at them - like picking up a blob of mercury. The more articles are published against committing suicide the more suicides take place. The more adverts showing the dangers of drinking and driving the more we make excessive consumption of alcohol seem cool to young people. The same applies to race - yes it does matter and should be written about but not so frequently and not when the issue at hand is just lack of English literacy or poverty or exploitation.
The bias and ego when it come to climate change cultists is at weapons grade level. "In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf
Chapter 14 also says:
"Human processes are critically linked to the climate system as contributing causes of global change, as determinants of impacts, and through responses."
"Human activities have altered the Earth system, and many such influences are accelerating with population growth and technological development. The use of fossil fuels and chemical fertilisers are major influences, as is the human transformation of much of the Earth’s surface in the past 300 years."
Profile is classic - always uses something to twist to what he needs to project.
Yes, it's non-linear. No, you cannot predict minutae accurately - but the intensity of storms, and of events like the Australian Bushfires, was well foretold.
It pays to not conflate, one end up confused.
As I was saying about ego... The IPCC needs you PDK , your talents are wasted here. "As the IPCC has previously noted, “future unexpected, large and rapid climate system changes (as have occurred in the past) are, by their nature, difficult to predict.
...Extreme events are, almost by definition, of particular importance to human society. Consequently, the importance of understanding potential extreme events is first order. The evidence is mixed, and data continue to be lacking to make conclusive cases."
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/TAR-14.pdf
You appear to be making an argument for people to be more stupid, because anything that is beyond your understanding, must be bulls@%t?
Education is the solution to ignorance, not lashing out because people are smarter than you. If you don't understand what a non-linear/chaotic system is, and don't want to understand, there is little hope. These are entire branches of scientific research and understanding, we wouldn't have weather forecasting or all manner of things some take for granted in life, without them.
"therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."The "not possible" bit is unequivocal. Nothing to do with being stupid, smarter or ignorant. The ego comes in to it when people claim future climate states are predictable when history and the last 30 years of failed predictions clearly show us otherwise.
Sorry, just a link, but an interesting six and a half minutes of........Davos - Build Back Better - The great reset
No meltdown - but it's food for thought on several levels.
Basically, it acknowledges that we're in the shyte and that it's globally we are in it. .I had to laugh more than once at parallels from past; the late Bob Carter's last PP slide, at Otago Uni (I always wondered about the hierarchical connections which facilitated that farce) for instance.....
It rightly identifies the Elite wanting to own everything, but then calls it Socialism. Cant possibly be both.
"Fragments of RNA can linger for weeks after infectious virus has been cleared, often in people without symptoms or known exposures.
However, for public health measures, another approach is needed. Testing to help slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 asks not whether someone has RNA in their nose from earlier infection, but whether they are infectious today. It is a net loss to the health, social, and economic wellbeing of communities if post-infectious individuals test positive and isolate for 10 days. In our view, current PCR testing is therefore not the appropriate gold standard for evaluating a SARS-CoV-2 public health test."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)0042…
China is grappling with its demographic issues and may update its retirement age policies soon.....
"People in China can now expect to live an average of 77 years, compared to just 40 in the 1950s."
Life expectancy 40 ... wow! Communism and Mao lead to great famine killing up to 50 million chinese, the cultural revolution killing many more. And they say its a good political system!!
... estimates are that up to 20 million were killed during the Cultural Revolution .... it depends on how you define " not that many people " ....it seems alot , to me ... from 1966 to 1976 Chairman Mao dragged China into a living hell of imprisonments , tortures , executions , massacres , starvation , even cannibalism. ... historic sculptures & artifacts were destroyed ...
Just "different cultural norms" according to Joey Biden. It is so good to have an adult back in the room.
https://nypost.com/2021/02/17/biden-says-uighur-genocide-is-part-of-chi…
It wasn't the cultural revolution where Mao killed most chinese it was his 'Great Leap Forward' From wikipedia: ""The exact number of famine deaths is difficult to determine, and estimates range from upwards of 30 million, to 55 million people. Because of the uncertainties involved in estimating famine deaths caused by the Great Leap Forward or any famine, it is difficult to compare the severity of different famines. However, if a low estimate of 30 million deaths is accepted, the Great Leap Forward was the deadliest famine in the history of China and in the history of the world.""
It worries me that historians are still arguing whether the 45m dead was Mao's intention (elimination ex-land owners) or simple bureaucracy - nobody willing to pass the bad news information up to the leadership.
That famine in India killed over 2m and was caused by climate (from memory) but could have been avoided by using transport to move food from where it was plentiful to the famine areas. Churchill's govt kept transport for supplying the army fighting the Japanese in Burma. It was a tough judgement call whoever made it. I've heard most historians believe more should have been done for those famine victims and I'm sure I would agree with that conclusion if (a) I was an Indian or (b) I read the subject in detail and came to the same judgement. I had an uncle who survived being a prisoner on the Thai - Burma railway.
Ridiculous comment. Check this: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1041350/life-expectancy-china-all-t…
During the Kuomintang error (you know, "democracy"), life expectancy in China hovered around 32-35. Since Mao came to power life expectancy went from 33 to 77.
Reality it appears is exactly THE OPPOSITE of what you are claiming. Socialism + Capitalism in China appears to be their best form of existence. Yes, there were some horrific times, caused by Mao, in the countries history (Chinese refer to this as Mao doing 8 things good and 3 things bad, or something similar). That hasn't stopped them rising up to be a superpower with relatively good life quality for almost everyone in the country in an incredibly short time span. It's absolutely amazing what that country has achieved in such a short period of time, even though they have made some serious missteps and likely continue to do so. We could do worse learning from their example.
For example, in the West (including NZ), we are hopeless at building infrastructure, the engine of an economy, whereas China has and continues to build infrastructure at an incredibly rapid pace, with not that many side effects. In the West we pontificate hopelessly when it comes to making decisions (analysis paralysis), whereas China just gets on and does it.
Blasting China for a series of missteps without recognising that they have bought hundreds on millions of people from the brink of starving to death, to leading middle class lives in mere decades, is seriously ignorant.
And the people who supply your PKE, make your shirts and washing-machines and cars and get dispossessed of their oil so you can burn it - they're not restricted?
That's like saying we're clean and green while ignoring the offshoring of extraction, production, pollution and waste-streams.....
Having lived in China I can assure you: " the citizens in mainland China suffer many restrictions on their human rights & value" is almost certainly incorrect. This is a blanket statement that must mean all citizens in China suffer under some sort of malevolent government. That is so far from the truth, it's ridiculous.
Certainly feel free to criticise China for past or ongoing human rights abuses. And I assume you are all as vociferous at America every time they invade a country, commit atrocities and implement sanctions at will? No? Are we screaming about Australia's ongoing human rights abuses of refugees on Manus island that is holding peoples without trail, with virtually no pathway to escape? Or their continuing abuse of their own Aborigine people? Do we blame these countries political and economic systems for the damage they are doing?
Funny how we have double standards when it comes to our allies... they look like us, so they must be angels.
Try reading this account of growing up in China and escaping to Australia
https://www.amazon.com/One-Bright-Moon-Andrew-Kwong-ebook/dp/B08287DXJJ
Certainly criticise China's past. I assume you have read all the books published by Iraqi/Pakistani/Afghan survivors who saw their parents blown up by US bombs dropped from drones in extrajudicial executions? How about all the books coming out of Manus Island survivors (of which I think there is only one that I know of, which was published via whatsapp: https://theconversation.com/book-review-behrouz-boochanis-unsparing-loo…).
Oh, they don't get published. Funny that. Western publishing outlets have real problems publishing such accounts of their own governments atrocities. But when someone else does it... the fact people don't understand they are being influenced by such a one sided system shows how incapable they are of independent thought. We glaze over news items of mass executions of civilians by our own allies, yet as soon as someone who doesn't look like us does the same, we come down on them like a tonne of bricks.
You are being caught up in a popular anti-western sentiment.
There is a difference between totalitarian regimes trampling human rights, islamic theocracies etc, and the mistakes/adventures of the West.
People vote with their feet - which countries are the most popular to emigrate to?
https://www.harpercollins.ca/9780062857903/the-right-side-of-history/
Hilarious, you frame the Wests Human Rights abuses as "mistakes" and "misadventures", which all sounds terribly entertaining. But if another country does it, they are "trampling human rights". The fact you wrote such garbage shows how biased you are, yet you probably don't even know it. Dropping bombs on peoples heads is a-OK and is just a wee mistake. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_from_U.S._drone_strik…
"popular anti-western sentiment"?? Please, I call anyone on their s#%t without making excuses.
Hundreds of children killed by our allies is fine in their ongoing extrajudicial killings (Trump decided they don't have to report civilian deaths anymore, very convenient), but China did something wrong decades ago and we should persecute them for all of history. Talk about one eyed.
My point is that every day on this site is a list of Chinese human rights violations both past and present. The same people that accuse China of being some type of over the top evil entity will happily ignore exactly the same human rights abuses by our allies, even our closest, in Australia. It reeks of hypocrisy based in racism. More likely it's a type of bias, borne of ignorance on most peoples behalf.
Just look at what was written by the OP, a post which is completely contradictory to reality, then equating it to their political and economic systems. An attack based on fear, likely coming from ignorance.
Thanks for continuing the discussion so that I may post examples of human rights violations by our allies. Almost everyone that reads that they exist, will skip over the links, pretending our allies are good, honest people "just like us".
The Communist Chinese Party does pose a special danger to New Zealand which is why so many point this out - while they still have the freedom to do so
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/anne-marie-bradys-full-submission
Regarding coverage of pandemic: Covid is the most significant factor affecting both global and the New Zealand economies. Other significant factors and consequences - such as actions by central banks - are secondary and largely influenced by the pandemic.
So yes, cut back on the reporting on the pandemic but brief comments on both the trends in incidence and death toll and roll out of vaccine are important.
Time for the NZ Govt to use the Taiwan method of enforcement for contacts
https://qz.com/1825997/taiwan-phone-tracking-system-monitors-55000-unde…
Rather than locking down the whole of Auckland.
“The monitoring system in Taiwan is described as a “digital fence,” whereby anyone required to undergo home quarantine has their location monitored via cellular signals from their phones. Venturing too far from homes triggers the alert system, and calls and messages are sent to the confinee to ascertain their whereabouts. Anyone caught breaching their quarantine can be fined up to NT$1 million ($33,000).”
Frazz...that is why about 500 hours of community service is far more appropriate. If fined, this waste of space would probably pay the first two $10 payments then never pay another cent again. A public and heartfelt apology together with his sweat from some community service would make things right. Has any journo even asked Jacinda if she feels he needs to publicly apologise?
BTW: Does WINZ have a gym membership allowance these days? I mean they pay for chrome books and BRAND NEW school uniforms for some students at my kids schools. After all being expected to share a school owned device or wear a second hand uniform would be utterly demeaning right?
The specific tracking used in Taiwan - in this recent Auckland case/s - would only need to track contacts, close contacts, casual+ contacts, casual contacts.
This would enforce self-isolation behaviour, and enforce behaviour after a test (resulting from contact).
Maybe NZers would be happy with that compared to major, severe lockdowns.
Regarding the pandemic coverage I think the most important metrics will be the number of vaccinations completed, the estimated final date for the vaccination program to have been delivered and the estimated date for border reopening.
The daily case count has never been that meaningful because it's only the community cases people care about.
Hi Squishy
Other metric not mentioned in msm is % of tests positive. Lot more use than infected totals. In uk this shows currently 6.5%. Last April it was 55%
Also v rarely told how many tests done per day. Last April in uk it was 50k per day. In Jan it was 900k per day.
Numerator and denominator
So of course they found more infection
But peak cases infected per day was 57000 out of 900k
So % positive was far higher in April last year
Of course due to spread speed varying, different countries in better or worse state dep on when they got 100 cases first.
We already know that economy in NZ = Housing Market
We also know housing ponzi is in such a position to dominate all in power be it govetnment, RBNZ, experts....to support and promote it further to avoid NZ failing ( Who is responsible to allow it to be blackmailed and resist the powerfull RE Industry and now it seems that they are bigger than everybody)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/124385961/new-zealand…
Great article, I like the cut of Bernard’s jib. This figure of homeowners paying only 6% of income on mortgage payments? Surely this is skewed by interest only loans and the large portion of older homeowners who likely have smaller mortgages? Would be interesting to know what percentage this is over the past 10 years (especially for FHBs) to account for the much larger mortgages people have been accessing more recently.
It is an aggregate calculation and is misleading ...current disposable household income is around 86k so 6% equates to around $95 per week...how may mortgage holders do you think are paying at that level?...and what do you think they would say to Mr Hickey's assertion that they could cope with double their current interest costs?
"The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia have all adopted a policy of targeting more than 2 per cent inflation over the next few years to reach an “average” of 2 per cent over the long run and compensate for the sub-2 perr cent results of the last decade."
Exactly as I predicted, pent up inflation excuses coming out. They actually need to rethink monetary policy in a time when it looks like MMT has/is taking hold. Instead they stick with the same old policies, but instead just start ignoring bits of it. Come on guys, rethink the policy! The level of group think between Central Bankers is bonkers.
I know you have to cut and paste to get stuff done early in day but I am afraid the trend of CV19 deaths is not how you present it. It has halved from peak in USA and is down to 258 in uk yesterday from peak over 1500. World death rate peaked over 12000 a day and is now in the 8000s. Average in summer last year (June to October) was 6000. Please stop dumping on uk when it is out of date. Yes, it is my country of origin!
Worth watching before this gets taken down by Zuck & Jack
bhttps://fromrome.info/2021/01/31/dr-lee-merit-coronavirus-vaccines-are-…
I'm all for diversity of thought but come on @Tradersam, you are better than that. Its misinformation and conspiracy theories like this that is putting at risk the members of our society who might not have the capability to evaluate the source, integrity of information themselves. If that doesn't change you're POV perhaps give some thought to what you would say to the families of those whom lost loved ones in the 2019 measles outbreak?
I have reported your comment, FYI.
Tradersam, just think through this antivax rubbish. Suppose for a moment it is true the elite are out to cause mass murder of half the world's population....wouldnt they rather be rid of the antivaxxers because they comprise the people that are anti-authority and so harder to control?
It's also the same plot as the fictional TV drama Utopia (which is excellent). https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2384811
Palm oil should be banned.
1/ It makes cows milk taste awful
2/ It is absolutely terrible in terms of the effects it has on human health: Blocked arteries.
I always look at the label of products and if it has Palm Oil in it, its an instant rejection. If it has vegetable oil, the same because it is almost certain to be Palm oil...
No, PKE is Palm kernel Expeller. It is the waste product left after the Palm oil has been extracted. Prior to feeding it to dairy animals it was just dumped in massive valleys and left to rot, or burnt to generate power (this is still done in europe)
Palm oil is used is a significant quantity of products that you purchase everyday.
So it is not 19% but appox 35% rise in a year and still government feels is not enough.
According to Ashley Church, Higher house prices have made us wealthier as a nation and are the single biggest reason that New Zealand is now the fifth wealthiest nation in the world.
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/forget-covid-house-price-rises-were-alwa…
And the sad thing is - a lot, if not most, people believe that.
Many people don't realise it yet, but they are now trapped in place by their "wealth"
"Family sell house for $980,000, but cannot afford to buy new home"
https://tinyurl.com/yb3aa2cu
Don't tell me?! "People always can downgrade and buy a cheaper place!" Right?
Only if people 'at the bottom' sell up (and the subsequent levels above them), but if they stop moving (as that article indicated - where do they go?) then downgrading isn't an option either.
I have no informed idea what they will be in 4 or 5 years. No one does. So that's an automatic reason to ignore him.
We can have informed debate of what they night be in the next 12 - 24 months, even that is fraught given the range of economic scenarios that could play out.
Fritz... one of the problems that I have with Ashely (from a property perspective) is that he always seems so certain and so biased. He is a gun for hire although not especially quick on the draw. Anybody who is so certain of the direction of interest rates over the next five years is just showing their ignorance.
Check out his Israel Institute stuff. He says if you are anti-Israel you are anti-semetic, racist and part of the problem. Ashley sees nothing wrong with showing support for a state that systematically imprisons children without trial, bans certain races from some Govt positions and provides different public services such as roads for different races. According to Ashley individuals (and even countries like NZ) who voice their displeasure at these crimes against humanity are simply labelled as anti-semetic racists "who just do not understand". His narrative on everything is completely self-serving and biased and to take any notice of anything he says would be foolish. Apparently, despite living in Auckland, this so called property expert has held the majority of his property investments in Christchurch over the past several years. Says it all really.
Irish banks produced Wealth of Nations reports . In 2007 the Irish were believers.
http://finfacts.ie/biz10/biz10/WealthNationReportJuly07.pdf
If LVR will not work why is government not acting - it does confirm that they are just playing with time
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/437375/lvr-rules-reinstated-but-ind…
Warren Buffett says ‘Bonds are not the place to be these days’
My purpose here is both a reminder about volatility – that even in “safe” instruments like Treasuries, wild swings have not been uncommon – also why these big moves happen in the first place; no recovery, no inflation, nothing effective about central bank policies that are truly non-monetary in nature. They predict inflation every time, only to see it fall back to earth.
As bond curves shrink, the volatility only looks bigger when it’s not even close.
In other words, they can fool some of the bonds some of the time into thinking reflationary, but never all the bonds all the time out into recovery. Eventually, inevitably, the warning signs are too loud to continue to ignore despite all the “money printing.”
So far as the current 2021 reflationary trend goes, we could only wish it was May 2010 again; the current market is staring way, way up at those depressing levels.Link
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