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US jobless claims rise; US factories very positive; China faces bond maturity wall; Aussie jobless rate dips; UST 10yr at 1.73%; oil drops but gold firms; NZ$1 = 71.9 USc; TWI-5 = 73.9

US jobless claims rise; US factories very positive; China faces bond maturity wall; Aussie jobless rate dips; UST 10yr at 1.73%; oil drops but gold firms; NZ$1 = 71.9 USc; TWI-5 = 73.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news it's all about bonds and interest rates today.

First up, selling of US Government bonds accelerated today, sending yields higher again, just a day after the US Fed had briefly calmed the market. The Fed's own raised internal growth forecasts for the US economy are probably behind the push higher.

And US jobless claims rose last week in an unexpected turn. But to be fair the actual rise was a small +23,000 but the seasonally adjusted number was twice that and that is the one being heavily reported. The numbers claiming their Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefit almost halved from the prior week. Overall, less than 4.5 mln people are now on these benefits, a big drop in a week. Now that new additional stimulus payments are going out to people directly, this fall isn't quite the social crisis it was last year.

Much more positive is the latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Philly Fed, a heartland industrial region. They reported a sharp increase in both growth and optimism. They also report a sharp rise in the prices factories are paying for inputs.

In Canada, their February update of the ADP Employment Report wasn't so positive, indicating declining jobs. It is quite a different slant on their labour market from the official data.

In China, they are facing a wall of bond maturities over the next eight weeks. NZ$300 bln matures this month and another NZ$200 bln in April. This pressure is seeing most new issues cancelled as their financial markets try to absorb this short-term pressure. It will probably be handled with Beijing's support and adjustment, but it does point out there are still strange unbalanced forces at play in the debt-heady Chinese economy.

Overnight there were central bank policy reviews in a number of countries. Taiwan, Indonesia, Egypt and the UK all kept rates unchanged. Brazil raised theirs by +75 bps. Japan will announce their review later today and it is unlikely they will change any settings.

In Australia, they have announced their jobless rate has dipped from 6.4% in January to 5.8% in February, an improvement far greater than expected. A year ago it was at 5.1% however. Total employment rose to 13 mln, a gain of +88,700 but only back to where it was a year ago. Underemployment rose to 8.5% and their participation rate slipped slightly.

And staying in Australia, you may have noticed they have had their quietest bushfire season in more than ten years. Normally the headlines are about smoke plumes that stretch all the way to New Zealand at this time of year. This year is different, with storms and wet weather replenishing their waterways and water supplies.

In New York, Wall Street is lower in early afternoon trade today with the S&P500 down -0.4% reacting to the jobless claim spike. Overnight European markets were up an average of +0.5%. Yesterday, all the main Asian markets were higher with Tokyo up +1.0%, Hang Kong up +1.3% and Shanghai up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended yesterday down another -0.7%, and the NZX50 Capital Index was down -1.0%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising and at a fast pace, now at 121,427,000 and up +509,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,674,000 and +10,000 in one day, and much of that from the raging situation in Brazil. Vaccinations in the first world are rising however and in the US a third (112.1 mln) have now had this protection. They are running six weeks ahead of the target Biden set at his inauguration. That is quelling the US daily death rate which was up just +1000 yesterday. The number of active cases there fell yesterday to 7,297,000 (-26,000 more in a day), resuming the reducing trend and taking the number currently infected down to 2.2% of their population.

The UST 10yr yield is up +8 bps from yesterday at just on 1.73% and that makes it a 15 month high. The US 2-10 rate curve is rising, steeper at 158 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +81 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is up to +173 bps. German long-dated bonds have also hit their highest yields in a year. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is up +11 bps at 1.90%. The China Govt 10 year yield remains unchanged at 3.28%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is also little-changed, up just +2 bps at 1.80%. It's move up may come later today.

The price of gold starts today up +US$5 in New York at US$1733/oz.

Oil prices have dropped hard today, down -US$3/bbl and are now just under US$61/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$64/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today at under 71.9 USc and slipping back to where it was before yesterday's US Fed announcements. Against the Australian dollar we are -½c lower at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 60.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 opens today at 73.9 and very little different to where it was a week ago.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$59,627 and up +US$4245 or +7.7% from this time yesterday. In between, volatility in the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 4.4%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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108 Comments

The other day, while thinking about Bitcoin, turned to wondering what caused the collapse of the Tulip Bubble. Apparently it was the Bubonic Plague. Wikipedia suggests trading was conducted as open outcry, at informal hostelries where suddenly the traders stopped turning up and stopped buying. Interesting time

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Bitcoin isn't going to collapse any time soon. Square has put up an excellent site debunking the energy consumption myths once and for all https://bitcoinmythology.org/

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I'm not seeing much here specifically debunking anything. It's a very pretty website, I'll give you that. It's mostly arguing that Bitcoin's energy consumption is a function of its own demand and that the demand will create greener energy as a by-product of that. I mean... sure, I guess, but that's not a compelling argument when it gets put up against things like Nano etc, which have been created specifically to address energy concerns.

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So how will Nano encourage everyone to switch...BTC seems to have a huge head start?

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@GV Nano is unlikely to replace BTC IMO as a global reserve, for the very reason that it doesn't cost anything to prove, and works on PoS. Skin in the game is everything, and very important for adapting to an ever changing environment. Once you have your PoS oligarchs that bought in at 0.01c/token, have all the governance tokens and the system doesn't have rules to deal with that, we're back to square one with unsound monetary policy and an ivory tower of centralisation.

Also, being green isn't about energy consumption (a fallacy), it's about efficient energy production and CO2 output. BTC will drive innovation in this.

...Bitcoin’s transaction volume is independent of energy usage, meaning that it can accommodate 100, 1,000, or 10,000 times more transactions for the same amount of energy.

When you compare BTC's energy consumption to gold or the production of fiat, BTC is the best solution for a global layer 1 monetary reserve on the block. That means that traditional stores of value are the real perpetrators when it comes to value vs CO2 production.

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Bitcoin ... as a global reserve

Thats a good one

Where is the Bitcoin army based?

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Tulips don’t need armies - flower power.

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You've lost the plot spam&eggs. War will be funded the same way as it has throughout the entirety of history - with Gold (just digital gold in this instance as it's harder money). The most powerful armies will be the ones with the most Gold (BTC).

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sorry Ezyly upset - i didnt ask how they were funded - i asked where they were based?

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Your lack of understanding about basic fundamentals around economics (people and resource allocation) is eye opening. Unfortunately you're in good company. God help us.

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Actually, the breakfast one has it quite correct - reminds me of a cartoon, Tremain I think, when we were having the Frigate debate.

A bearded yachtie on his boat's foredeck, looking up at an officer on the bow of a warship. The Officer is answering "Well, we're not from anywhere, really. We had this small country, but we sold it to buy these frigates....."

Guess we could always buy virtual acres with bitcoins, then settle back in digital recliners on our Cad-drawn front porches.....

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Gold ... as a global reserve

Thats a good one

Where is the Gold army based?

There we go, I've removed metaphysics from your inability to see your own logical fallacies.

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You do realise that we did away with the Gold standard some way back?
Do you think there was a reason?

Hint: Its got something to do with resource allocation (that i know nothing about)

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Fantastic. How's that going for everyone then? Nice equal resource allocation based on real world value I'd imagine... or not?

Once again your problem is the same as most economists - you're looking at too short a timeline. If you want to understand war and money, I suggest you read "Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World" by Liaquat Ahamed. Although it relates to events which happened well before 1970 (when the gold standard was removed from the FED) so you may not be interested.

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"How's that going for everyone then? "

The last 50 years has seen resource plunder like no other
So yes, very well thankyou (say the masses)

Sorry - how does Bitcon conjure up more RESOUCES again?

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It doesn't. And that's the point. You seem to have lost yours though. SMH

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Sorry
It doesnt?
And you think the masses will willingly embrace this?

Fiat debt has this (wonderful) time shifting ability
Where you can consume today and pay later
Which is why we are heading for the crapper ... we have overshot the resource base

But if you are looking for volunteers for far lower consumption .... then youre dreaming
Im assuming you yourself arent willing to see the Bitcoin (fiat) price go continually down?

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Thats the point of Bitcoin, it doesnt need an army to force itself onto people, it is all defensive. If you have impenetrable defense you will win against any army :)
It is an opt in system that is better than anything else in the world, ergo people will voluntarily use it in self interest.
Cant you see that people will gravitate to what is best for them? why would I hold any currency that is worse than Bitcoin at storing my value over time?

https://medium.com/original-crypto-guy/as-bitcoins-price-hits-a-new-all…
Such as the people in the countries mentioned above

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A few holes here

"Cant you see that people will gravitate to what is best for them?"

Yes. An income that you can trade for stuff.
Fiat is overpromising to hell. ie you cant add Trillions of stimulus WITHOUT adding trillions more of available goods and services.
Hence its going to continue to devalue & ultimately implode.
It aint the token, its the delverable thats ultimately what keeps people calm ...

Bitcoin apparently "solves" the problem by not overpromising and removing those annoying Govts who want to hand out free tokens (as well as provide a structure for services like roads / water / power etct etc - but lets ignore that wee aside..)

Ultimately the less promises wont help deliver any dinner to poor old Tom will it? In fact theres a high chance it will mean no dinner.

And yet he will gravitate to "whats best"?

Its the same logic from greenies who want overseas trips but less pollution

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Fiat is overpromising to hell. ie you cant add Trillions of stimulus WITHOUT adding trillions more of available goods and services.

Agree / Disagree. Fiat is being used to bid up the 'prices' of 'goods' like houses. It's not adding more to the housing supply.

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I think you are agreeing with me - im saying it DOESNT add to available goods & services

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When you can create something for nothing, its value is zero.
you cant add Trillions of stimulus WITHOUT adding trillions more of available goods and services.
Hence its going to continue to devalue & ultimately implode.

What? Of course you can add trillions more without adding the corresponding goods?? its called adding zeros to your account balance aka money printer go BRRRR. It just means that the value of the thing printed goes down in terms of the goods and services you can purchase with it.

Eventually Bitcoin will reach a price level where the volatility will be negligible and it will be used more for everyday transactions. It also means that governments will have a limited supply of sats to spend on maintenance, so they will have to work more efficiently and choose projects that actually produce value, otherwise it wont get funded. unlike today where money is free so there is no repercussions for making bad economic decisions.

Ultimitly, if the NZD is losing value at 5% a year I am not going to keep more than I intend to spend in the next few weeks in NZD am I? So where am I going to put it? That is the world wide question that trillions of $$ is chasing. eg gold ($10T) and then the entire bond market worth about $100T.

Bitcoin is a black hole.....https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1321176906369294339

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"What? Of course you can add trillions more without adding the corresponding goods?

Yes - Thats what im saying!!!!

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ie You cant make the massive Over promise without implications ... hence the devaluation of fiat

But your barking up the wrong tree. Its not about transaction fees OR value OR efficiencies
Debt doesn't care about these... it just cares about MORE
More resource burn = Growth. No growth decimates wealth & income.
No income = no jobs and willing workers

So who will be maintaining the power grid in this minimal Govt, fiatless(?) world? Where do they get their parts from? Where does their fossil fuel come from? Who coordinates the infrastructure supply?

Your last point is about using Bitcoin as a hedge.
which will probably work (temporarily) as long as you can find some greater fools who think Bitcoin solves somthing
and they appear to be in abundant supply

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and yes, next you are going to try and convince me you eat Bitcoins, not lunch

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You two are a crack up in the morning - remind me of Staler and Waldof in the Muppets (Can you shift over and let Gummy join you)?

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It's not likely to replace Bitcoin - but Bitcoin cannot fundamentally alter the basic principles under which it runs, and subsequent alts have been designed specifically to address those issues. Don't mistake a first-mover advantage for technical superiority. Some F1 teams get two races into a season and have an "oh fuck" moment where they either need to stick with a fundamentally flawed car or rush out a massive mid-season upgrade. Sometimes someone just has something better, and no amount of development or hours of energy is going to make your tech something that it was never designed to be.

As for Nano specifically, the spam attack recently showed that it has a ways to go in terms of changing the way network proof is handled. But the cost of implementing something will walk it back from being actually instant to being imperceptibly less-than instant - something that Bitcoin just cannot do.

I'm not saying Nano will specifically displace BTC - but I am saying if the best BTC has to fall-back on is patch-protection behavioral incentives, then it's fighting a losing battle until something better does displace it. BTC has to be a global reserve because that's basically all it's capable of doing, which not what the developers set out to do.

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Don't get me wrong - if NANO goes close to BTC's current value I'll be a multi-millionaire as I have a small hedge in it. But I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the ability for PoS as a successful layer 1 solution. The arguments for NANO supplanting BTC being - better throughput, minimal transaction cost, Eco-friendliness.

BTC as a global reserve:

- doesn't need instant finality as a L1 solution. But L2 solutions need to be fast (BTC is also much faster in finality than gold)
- is energy expensive which is a FEATURE as something of real value (electricity) is transferring its value to BTC
- the inconvenient truth about Eco-friendliness is that people don't care about it on an individual level, which is why we all have smart phones
- has strength as a decentralized asset requiring real resource to prove.

ETH is a good example of a network trying to transition from PoW to PoS, and it's not going well. The miners are understandably in revolt. It will be interesting to see that play out over the next couple of years, and the price of ETH is the perfect barometer.

I'm all for PoS but can't really see a good example of a completely decentralised solution that works on it right now. PoS requires governance, and I'd be surprised if the resource allocation for that governance doesn't end up centralised over the medium term.

"Patch-protection behavioral incentives" are at the core of human nature, so we're probably in agreement here. But it's the very (and same) reason why I think BTC will succeed and NANO will fail.

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I'd almost venture at this point Nano has basically failed. There'll be something in the pipeline to resolve the issues they have but there's no clear timeline or discussion from the Foundation about how we'll end up with a better, more usable product. At this point they risk getting left behind and trust is at a bit of a low-point.

Still, I'll take these issues over the shitfight over REEF or the rug-pull yesterday, but it's hard to keep the faith. I have a very small bag but I'd need it to basically replace the US Dollar before I could think about quitting my job.

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You're probably right - people consistently underestimate how huge the first mover advantage and network effect is in crypto. But NANO is still bullish on coingecko - https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/nano

First I've heard of REEF though. BTC is inevitable IMO as it replaces gold as a store of value on the historical financial timeline and will become the new global reserve, but everything else is a massive punt. There's much greater complexity in the remaining established financial mechanisms that will inevitably be upgraded/replaced by crypto. Add to that the difficulty of having to ship the full blockchain code-base in it's entirety on day one to be adopted by a community and the challenge is huge. But quite a time to be alive and there's alts worth cents on the dollar right now that will replace entire chunks of old slow banking processes. The last time like this where you could turn a few hundred dollars into a fortune was probably back in the late 70's early 80's when the first tech stocks were getting started. But people didn't see that then either. Quite an opportunity.

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About an hour after I posted this, Nano published an update addressing pretty much every concern I'd raised.

https://medium.com/nanocurrency/recent-dos-nano-network-attack-and-v21-…

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Bitcoin was established with 20 million tokens, of which 18 million have been issued. Of the 18 million, 2 million have been "lost" due to lost passwords, never to return to circulation. That leaves 16 million in action. BTC has a vested interest in making sure every holder survives or has survived CV-19 and doesn't take their wallet with them to valhalla

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Correction 21 million tokens

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Um.. It is estimated at least 3 million have been lost, so that just reduces the available supply, making all the remaining coins more valuable. If people die and dont pass on their seed phrases/passwords etc then that just reduces the supply even further. It is a donation to all remaining hodlers.
Because each Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million satoshis it really doesnt matter how many Bitcoin there are circulating, just that each sat is worth more in terms of real purchasing power.
https://hodl.camp/sats_per_dollar/
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

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That SATS per dollar site is pretty great. I notice the NZ dollar isn't even on there as a rate option. Portentous.

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"Normally the headlines are about smoke plumes that stretch all the way to New Zealand at this time of year."

Fire in Oz last season was well below average last year also - despite the headlines. OZ normally has a lot of fires.

"The total area moderately to severely burnt in 2019/20 was 30m ha and well below average."
https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ausenv_2020MYU.pdf

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How can this be? We are told that there is an emergency.

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Reality is much more boring and generates a lot less clickbait ad revenue.
"Despite these differences between regions and islands, this study shows that outputs from the NZFDRS indicate a marginal overall downward trend in fire danger levels across New Zealand for the past 20 years compared to the period prior to 2000.
...What has emerged is that the number of days with fuel available for combustion at an intense level – as indicated by elevated values of the BUI and DC components of the NZFDRS – has remained the same or actually reduced since 2000 for almost all of the weather station locations analysed. Similarly, indicators of increased fire spread potential (based on the ISI component of the NZFDRS) show even more widespread decreases."
https://www.nzif.org.nz/assets/Uploads/Impacts-of-climate-on-fire-dange…

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Yeah data from the ANU and peer reviewed journals aren't facts. Who needs journals when you have Kunstler and your oft quoted crackpot doomster websites.
https://www.wenfo.org/aer/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ausenv_2020MYU.pdf
https://www.nzif.org.nz/assets/Uploads/Impacts-of-climate-on-fire-dange…

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Not quite sure what you are trying to say? Seems you are trying to spin the facts and downplaying the bushfire event summer 19/20, for some weird reason? There have been years when the absolute area of fires exceeded the 19/20 season, but this season was unprecedented because of the intensity of fires in areas not usually subject to such disasters. "The Bureau of Meteorology noted in its Annual Climate Statement 2019, published on 9 January 2020, that, ‘The extensive and long-lived fires appear to be the largest in scale in the modern record in New South Wales, while the total area burnt appears to be the largest in a single recorded fire season for eastern Australia’." https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parli…

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Wet seasons have their drawbacks.
"Three hospital patients bitten by mice as 'absolute plague' sweeps western NSW "
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/18/three-hospital-p…

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... another reason to keep those pesky Australians away from our beloved Queenstown .... mice plague emergency ... bubonic plague .... gaaaaahhhhh .... has Saint Ashley got an opinion on Aussie mice ?

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That figure really puts the sheer scale of the fires into perspective. 30M Ha is 300,000 sqkm, or larger than the whole of NZ (about 26.8M Ha). And that happens every year. Wow.

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117M ha burned in the 74-75 season.

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You forgot to add. Its all due to Climate Change or is that Global warming. So if it goes down or up its CC. Win-win. A bob both ways

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Housing crisis requires crisis response BUT is the government serious and responding to control instead acting to support and promote by their inaction now (acted promptely earlier to support and now suppofting by inaction - being silent spectator while it touching new height on a daily basis and well documented by data / media)

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/housing-crisis-requires-crisis-response

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I have just found out from a close and reliable source that AirNZ are in the process of re-hiring staff that was laid off due to Covid for "middle distance travel within bubble countires".
Sounds like the bubble with OZ is going ahead. : )

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If island countries in pacific near us do not have virus, why has the bubble not been open. Is it the fear as that fear will always exist in post coronavirus era.

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Yes it is fear, fear is the main reason for all lockdowns.
If/when travel with other countries resume, it benefits mostly the less populated country, so a travel bubble with small island nations will mostly benefit them whereas a travel bubble with OZ will mostly benefit NZ

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No little ..its their border controls are quite loose ...I could sail there and land without seeing 1 custom officer.

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That started 2 or 3 months ago Yves.

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The re-hiring of AirNZ staff for mid-haul (= international) travel? Why would that be?

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They were preparing for that late last year so need crew back in for recurrent training etc which takes time. With the outbreaks we've had since, it's obviously delayed things.

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I've noticed a big increase in planes departing Wellington this week, for what it's worth. I live next to the airport. I've not seen it so busy since Covid.

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AirNZ staff for international travel is different from domestic travel staff so more flights within NZ can't explain the re-hiring of mid-haul (= international) staff.

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Thanks AJ

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Wrong tree :).

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?

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Thought you may have thought I was another account for AJ. Not sure why.

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You called me "Yves" above

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Well that is your name.

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The bubble will likely be short lived if Australia start to reopen their international borders in October.

I believe the Prime Minister alluded to that in her commentary the other day.

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... you were able to understand something of substance amongst all her waffle ? .... wow .... I find that the turbocharged hand waver makes more sense ... and I can't read " signage " ....

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First up, selling of US Government bonds accelerated today, sending yields higher again, just a day after the US Fed had briefly calmed the market. The Fed's own raised internal growth forecasts for the US economy are probably behind the push higher.

And yet dealers lend the Fed cash at 0.0% to secure $26.57 billion of US Treasury collateral via the Reverse Repo window, today.

FOMC Statement Makes A Statement Without Really Knowing It

Past time for Federal Reserve answers to questions yet to be asked, including why is there a collateral shortage of this magnitude for the most pristine liquid financial securities?

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Am no expert but all monetary and fiscal measures, which were in extreme and fast, have run their course and now may be economy will dictate.

Support was and is required but by panicking and taking extreme measures by reserve bank and government have exhausted all tools, just like heavy medicine initially may immune the body from treatment.

Asset market be it stock or housing has had one of the best run seen in a lifetime and that too in one one of the worst crisis that world has ever seen - it is not normal, as was only possible as economy was put in ventilator support and now it can no longer survive without ventilator - fiscal, monetary measures (QE, subsidies, helicopter money.....).

Best examples, even after yesterday's Fed meeting which was targeted to say everything that market wanted to hear and to boost it - still market screwed in a Big way.

Now more measures and support BUT for how long - money is losing its value only because of short term panicky response of reserve bank and government instead of supporting and be not so touchy about any correctness in the market - forgetting that up and down are part of sound economy fundamental and correctness by itself is not bad in healthy economy - Sooner the reserve bank and government undersrand better.

Their will be pain, once which is being delayed but cannot be avoided and bigger the delay bigger the pain.

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US stock market is down and Nasdaq as much as 3%. Which is big as is after Feds attempet yesterday. So Fed is no longer able to drive/ give directiin as normally it use to.

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.. . I'm shifting my Kiwisaver funds into a safe investment , rare tulip bulbs ... got an exclusive one off , a delicate little " Bloomfield " you can have , a snip at $ 500 000 .....

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Plus the higher house prices get here in NZ the harder it'll be for specuvestors to resist the temptation to cash in.. At first a trickle then gaining pace as a mad rush for the door

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Australias good unemployment rate could be bad news for New Zealand. If Australia's employment prospects are improving then its likely less kiwis will come home from Aussie (ending the brain gain) and it will make Aussie a very attractive place for all those young kiwis priced out of the NZ housing market, whilst prices are still rising it is still possible to get a 4 x2 on a big block in Perth and Brisbane for less than $600K. The Brain drain might be about to begin.

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NZ is a beautuful place to stay and was popular for good life as money on average compare to other developed countries was not much but now specially in Auckland standard of living is falling despite many compromises but still will attract immigrant as is one of the few developed country where is easy to migrate along with Canada.

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Importing immigrants while we destroy the aspirations of our young people. We are such a f-up of a place now.

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Agree. Should have debate but here in NZ like many democracy, one creates a monster which cannot be controlled till next election specially now in NZ, where absolute power has been given to one party, which now stand exposed.

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I came here for the Lifestyle, but did not know we had more rip-off artists in Government and Public Service and people with Hand-outs than our Honest-to-God neighbour Australia, where they imported all the crooks, so many years ago. Did I forget the same Banking and mortgage rip-offs and Shanty Town Ideals and Land Banking Blowhards.

Oh! and Fonterror Milking their customers dry and Cheeses over priced and Farmers too to Meat the Markets. Land of Milked and Honey.....nearly forgot.....Manukkkkkka.

OH! I nearly forgot to mention Bownlee as mentioned above his Pay Weight... and his other Political Cohorts, ripping off Savers and Rental Subsidies for a Living.

More Crooks than ever.......Gangs of Politicians......never mind the Drug Dealers, Cop Killers, Petrol Companies creaming us....Awklanders ..Bailing Out.......I could Rant ...for ever..

A complete waste of my time....must go subsidise our Airline ..and Kiwi Saver....and ...pay my GST Funded and Taxed to oblivion Cohorts....

DUH!.......Kiwis are so stupid........they even help...Support the Richest Shoe Merchant in the entire World......Kanye believe it........I could...not.

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... other than that , not so bad here , huh !

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If you know how to Work Around The criminals and the Super Markets and the Car Dealers and the Queenstown Rats who want the Subsidies Compounded, Housed and Bed- n-breakfast-and lunches Funded......Yeah. Sunshine is free....Beaches empty......Real-Easte-Moguls are two a penny......Just had my house 'Valued"......40 times what I paid for it......Yeah.....I learned to suvive.

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As one who did similar to you, I understand.
Having lived for a few years in and amongst the Queenstown dross and avoided becoming contaminated, I can't help but agree.
I'd have another go at finding the Perfect Place to live, but having done that so many times over the last 30 years, I can't be bothered doing it again.
Our eldest daughter, at 31 now (time flies!) asked if we would mind if she went to Australia after 'pivoting' to a new career via student debt and a 3-year degree, and the answer from us was "Mind!" Go for it, and if you have any sense, don't come back. You will have opportunities in Aussie that living in the ever-growing retirement village that Kiwiana has become is going to deny you"

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Great for us boomers gbh. But contrast boomers with our fathers. That generation paid it forward and spilt blood on foreign lands. What do us boomers do? Most just give the next generation the finger.

The politicians on tv last night being asked how many rentals they owned and their squirming with avoidance said it all.

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Brownlee, you expected that sort of answer (that had to be 'clarified' later on - 6, not 3), but Willy Jackson as well?!
There is slightly less than no hope that anything is going to happen to pay anything back, never mind about forwards.

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I think we should TAX all Government avoiders....Brownlee, Jackson included......by making them pay for their own expenses, Housing included..as they are Double Dipping, sorry tripple dipping and Multipple Dipping as fast as they can screw the Bubble....Then go after the Housing Blowhards, pumping up the Debt to get us out of the Hosing Fiasco.....

A fair deal is not screwing our Constituants....

Vote for the ones who really mean to Correct the Housing Situation......Not prolong it to their Bleedin Benefit....via the Taxpayers...Rort.

Labour is not Working, National is neither.........nor are the other thieving useless, house tossers.....Land Bwankers and Debt inflators.

Let us actually benefit things that Work....not things that are totally wrong.

No Honesty, No Honestly....print and be damned....Funny Munny is a fraud......If I printed it, it would be a Prison Sntence...Common Sense Really.

Fiat is not Motering along ignoring the Signals......Financial Rules need to obeyed, not Flaunted Fraud-u-lently.

Last rant today.....

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Some will say you're posting gibberish. You're not.

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Not sure spilling blood on foreign lands is anything to be proud of and certainly not something to emulate. Not much different to Aztec human sacrifice when you think about it.

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The blood and shame is on the politicians who decided to go to war not the men who gave their lives in the line of duty.

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"Not sure spilling blood on foreign lands is anything to be proud of ..."

It locks in a resource flow for your descendants
Just what any animal is trying to do

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Ffs sake. Any of your school mates loose their lives in Germany or the Japanese death camps? My father did. What a empty vessel you are.

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Rastus, sorry for your personal loss, but in the big picture, our ancestors (I 'lost' a something uncle at Gallipoli, grandfather wounded at El Alamein) were actually fighting over resources, access thereto. Read Longhurst's 'Ádventure in Oil', add in Seven Pillars of Wisdom and Daughter of the Desert (Lawrence and Bell, respectively).

All they were doing was defending access to the oil. Alle same denying the Japanese access to Indonesian oil, and other stuff. That all we do, is fight over access to resources. In recent times, military power has been displaced by financial manipulation; getting the Third World into 'debt', then sucking them dry (via the IMF, the World Bank, etc). You live as you do, by others being repressed/disenfranchised. Some of that was by military action, some of that by your ancestors.

Sometimes it is hard to acknowledge these things.

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Indeed WW2 was an epic struggle for oil. Stalingrad was a critical strategic operation to block oil getting to the Red Army.

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Aye Barbarossa, tried to do too much with too little, besides being too late. When they diverted from in front of Moscow towards the oil fields in the south, already over stretched supply lines. Even then if they had got to Moscow, as Napoleon discovered, that didn’t solve it either. Would have just been a bigger Stalingrad type urban warfare zone, hardly suited, or experienced much, by the Wehrmacht previously. Huge country, huge mistake.

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I seem to remember Stalingrad was nothing more than a Hitler ego trip, solely to poke Stalin in the eye by taking his namesake city? Just a side venture that the Germans discovered they couldn't take a backwards step from? The operation to take the Caucasus oil fields was named "Edelweiss" and was an operation to the South of Stalingrad. Who knows, if the Germans had put their resources soley into the oil field operation, instead of the disaster that was Stalingrad, they may have succeeded in subduing the Soviet Union, instead of running out of resources to continue the war?

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Here's a really good explanation made during the war by the Americans:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkRcp4ShMfc&t=157s

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Fascinating link - thanks. Europe went completely nuts in the 30s and 40s.

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Pt08, in reality all of the Axis were beaten before they started, eventually that is. Just didn’t have the industrial platform. Even during the darkest days of the Battle of Britain and the Battle of the Atlantic Great Britain was producing, planes, armaments and ships faster than Germany, even with all the capacity from their conquests. Once the USA came in it was just a question of time. Suggest V. Hanson’s The Second World Wars, puts it all in perspective extremely well. But yes the Germans could have just left Leningrad contained, made the first priority the oil fields and Moscow second. On the other hand if they thought oil was the vital component, they should have first upgraded and exploited the Rumanian fields already at their disposal, without any fighting.

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Huge amount of war material from the Allies was transiting through Stalingrad. This was the only route that was open all year.

Beyond the Persian Corridor and across the Caspian Sea is the Volga River, flowing into the Caspian from the north. This was a key route into the core of the Soviet Union. Stalingrad, at the easternmost turn of the Volga, was an objective of the Germans in their 1942 campaign partly for reason of its industrial capacity, partly as a convenient place to block Soviet pressure on the flank of their initiative towards the Caucasus, and partly for its name. But it was also for blocking the river traffic carrying materiel north from the Persian Corridor.

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Relatives gassed in WW1. Grandfather fought in WW1 & WW2, was evacuated from Dunkirk.

I think we will eventually end up bulldozing all the war memorials. Maybe some will be left as curiosities. People of the future will be told that these were shrines erected by primitive people to celebrate the sacrifice of their children. Killed so that they would never grow old.

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richard....Justin Trudeau and our own PM share a multitude of sins and net negative migration is the biggest.

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Australia's population declined for the first time in more than a century as pandemic-induced border closures stemmed the flow of overseas migrants, according to figures released Thursday.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/australia-sees-first-population-drop-si…

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Will offset the 501s returning.

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Off to the Aussie then!

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No, just hunkering down, until I can travel to the FRee World.....again. The Land of the Free, ain't with an Aussie Blow Hard....but not as Thick as Thieves as here......quite so much....They send em Back to us KIWI.s..............don't they.....Just.

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Inflation.
Just got notice from Nova energy.
Cowshed
Daily charge to go from 332 to 341 8%
Unit charge from 14.2 to 18.4 28%
House
Daily 420-451 7%
Unit. 17.4-18.7 7.5%
Oh well Should go down when the wholesale price drops.

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Another real indicator of inflation which is ever-increasing. I can't see how NZ are going to get out of the culmination of the GFC where our actual core industries are starting to wobble in light of this. Renewable energy is cheap too driving energy costs down so God knows what the real inflation rate here is. Kia kaha redcows.

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Try someone else. I find it interesting you have two points of supply. Cowshed far away from the house, say > 300m?

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I've never been on a property with only one supply point.
Probably will try elsewhere but I've never found one cheaper yet.

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"https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/124592243/kaikura-wildlife-rescuers…

For gods sake
Someone tell these bids about Bitcoin

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Should have debate on right to protect your live and property. Real stupid laws and thinking to protect culprits. Why ?

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/fair-go-burgled-auckland-bu…

Should have right to protect self.

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Lucky he didn't whack the burglar outside his business premises. He would have been had up for assault. Sounds like the burglar got off scott free.

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Person framing laws in NZ must have had real soft corner for such people and may be was able to identify more with them than the victim.

Time to look and change the laws.

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