US retail sales stutter but confidence surges; China readies huge African iron ore supply; Japanese retail sales rise; Brisbane faces Easter lockdown; UST 10yr at 1.72%; oil and gold down; NZ$1 = 69.7 USc; TWI-5 = 72.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news we are in a period of messy transition before the expected global economic growth surge arrives.

In the US, retail sales as tracked weekly by the Johnson Redbook are increasingly hard to judge because of the 2020 pandemic distortion. But there are no signs in 2021 that consumers have started spending their latest stimulus payments in a significant way yet. But those at the bottom of the economic ladder will start getting their stimulus payments next week.

But the latest tracking of consumer confidence suggests this surge may not be far away. The US Conference Board confidence report shows a sharp rise in sentiment, its highest in more than a year, with both the 'present' and 'future' indexes moving higher.

And American home-price growth in January accelerated to its highest annual rate in 15 years as the supply of homes for sale dropped to a new low. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose more than +11% in the year.

In Canada they reported January payroll data, which shows the number of people in payroll employment falling, but average weekly earnings rising, and rising quite sharply (up +8.3% year-on-year). This is twisted because it is the low-paid who are losing jobs there, and those in jobs are working longer hours. Still, consumer confidence in Canada is back rising in March.

In China, new investment is being poured into a giant iron ore mining project in Guinea, West Africa. The quality of the iron ore is expected to be better than from Western Australia's Pilbara region. But the transportation risk is greater. However, it is a project that sends a clear message that China is trying to separate itself from its dependence on its trade with Australia.

Iron ore prices are softening. Freight prices are inching their way lower too after the Suez spike.

China's decade-long dash to construct high-speed rail is heading for a reckoning. They have built more than there is demand for. Now they are pulling back. The era of vanity rail project may be over as economic realities set in.

And China is on the back foot again over its use of forced labour in its Western provinces. The UN has released details of its current concerns, something China has been desperate to avoid. The pressure is squarely on customers of Chinese cotton.

Japanese retail sales are starting to show some life in February, with a good month-on-month rise and pairing back the year-on-year decline. It was their best result in more than six months.

Hong Kong retail sales in February remain highly depressed, and their year-on-year comparisons are distorted by the 2020 pandemic and civil unrest. Compared to February 2019, the 2021 result is -27% lower. Hong Kong is now a retail shadow.

In Australia, Queensland and Brisbane especially is looking at an extension of their lockdown, one that will be over Easter.

Wall Street is lower with the S&P500 is now down -0.4% in early afternoon trade. Overnight, European markets closed about +1% higher, led by Frankfurt, lagged by London. Yesterday, Tokyo closed with a +0.2% gain. Hong Kong was up +0.8%. Shanghai closed with a +0.6% rise. The ASX200 ended its session -0.9% lower while the NZX50 Capital Index ended +0.6% higher.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 127,863,000 have been infected at some point, up +544,000 in one day. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,796,000 and +10,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are also rising fast, now up to 552 mln and in the US more than 40% of their population (142.2 mln) have now had this protection (+3.3 mln in one day) as they achieve a very fast rollout. The number of active cases there fell to 6,967,000 (-30,000 in one day), so no overall sign yet of an unwelcome spike in infections and talk of a "fourth wave" in some states.

The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp at 1.72% and earlier hit their highest levels since January 2020. The US 2-10 rate curve is steeper again at 158 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +85 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also much steeper up at +171 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is also up +3 bps at 1.78%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.22%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up +8 bps at 1.77%.

The price of gold starts today down another -US$28 at US$1685/oz and back to levels we last saw about a year ago. Silver is near a six month low.

Oil prices have fallen by about -US$1 and are now at just under US$60.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$64/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today softer at just on 69.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 59.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 opens today dipping slightly to 72.5.

The bitcoin price will start today at US$58,683 and up another +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».