Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the global economic recovery seems to be very bad news for the climate.
But first, in the US both equity and debt issuance has been 'enthusiastic' in early 2021. The value of debt origination in the US reached a record US$1.45 tln for the month of March 2021, +80% higher than in March 2020 which itself was +30% higher than in March 2019. The debt binge isn't only just a Chinese 'thing'.
In Canada, housing starts for March were very strong, duplicating the trend higher we reported earlier for the US. They were up a massive +22% in March compared with the previous month, easily beating expectations and hitting a new record.
Japanese exports posted a +16% gain in March, the first double-digit rise in more than three years. It is another indication that a recovery in global trade is gaining strength. Exports to New Zealand rose +19% while imports from us fell -8.4%. That resulted in a larger trade deficit for New Zealand in this trade.
There was a further improvement reported for Taiwanese consumer confidence in March, although it is not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. In China, the latest survey is for February done for the OECD and this one is back higher than pre-pandemic levels now.
And China has seen the number of domestic air passenger trips recover to pre-pandemic levels in March as the country has largely put the COVID-19 outbreak behind it. Their domestic tourism sector is now expecting a record number of tourist trips during the upcoming Labour Day holidays (May 1 - 5).
All this activity is causing some global leaders to issue warnings over the climate consequences. 2020 was one of the three hottest years on record, marked by wildfires, droughts, floods and melting glaciers, a WMO report said, prompting the UN Secretary-General to say the world stands “on the verge of the abyss”.
In Australia, new home sales surged by more than +40% in the March quarter as buyers scrambled to access the last and final phase of their HomeBuilder grant.
The housing frenzy extends to the general real estate market too, and banks are now expecting new curbs by regulators to rein in the froth.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now 141,643,000 have been infected at some point, up +688,000 in just one day. New lockdowns in India are underway. Global deaths reported now exceed 3,023,000 and up +9,000 in one day. Vaccinations in the world are also rising fast, now up to 907 mln (+14 mln) and in the US more than half of their population (207.5 mln) have had at least one dose as they keep up their fast rollout. A quarter have been fully vaccinated. The number of active cases there dipped to 6,870,000 and down -7,000 in a day.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.60% and little-changed. The US 2-10 rate curve is very slightly steeper at 144 bps. Their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +77 bps, as is their 3m-10 year curve at +159 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is is unchanged at 1.70%. The China Govt 10 year yield is holding at just on 3.18%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is now at 1.62% and -2 bps lower.
The price of gold starts today at US$1771/oz and that is down -US$6 since this time yesterday.
Oil prices are little-changed at just under US$63.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is just over US$66.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today at just under 71.8 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 59.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is just on 73.5.
The bitcoin price will start today at the same lower level were at yesterday, at US$55,555 and a mere +0.4% higher. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».