Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today to report.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union raised its TD offers sharply today.
PRICES FLAT, SALES ACTIVITY HIGH
While most media re-told the REINZ press release talking points for a +28.7% year-on-year house price rise, in fact the real story about June house prices and sales wasn't so impressive. Prices nationally and in Auckland have essentially flattened out since March. And that is despite sales volumes being relatively high (up +18% from the June 2019 level, and up +12% above the average of the prior four years). Days to sell at 31 days is also a rise. In Auckland, the story is similar with prices essentially flat since February despite elevated numbers of transactions in June. Westpac's analysts noted a cooling off too, although Kiwibank's analysts had it the other way around, "runaway" price growth and tight sales volumes!
MORE THAN +2% - I
Food prices increased +2.8% in the year ended June 2021. This was mainly influenced by higher fruit and vegetable prices (increasing almost +10%) and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (increasing +4.4% pa).
MORE THAN +2% - II
Stats NZ's rental price index for thye stock of rental properties is up +3.1% in a year. But their 'flow' measure (ie the prices for the rental units changing hands) in June has them up +4.9% from the same month a year ago. In Auckland, that 'flow' change is now +2.6%, in Wellington +5.7% and in Canterbury a massive +6.9% pa. Increases in provincial regions are reported as above that.
MORE THAN +2% - III
We get the June quarter CPI on Friday from Stats NZ. Bank economists are starting to issue their estimates and ANZ is expecting +3.0% and Westpac is expecting +2.9%. Given that the March CPI rose +1.5%, these are expectations the annualised rate has doubled since then. More here.
ANOTHER PRICE JUMP
It was cold again last night. Yesterday wholesale electricity prices rose sharply in response, exceeding $300/KWhr on average. But last night they rocketed up above $550/KWhr and close to a record high. (H/T TR)
KIWIBANK DUMPS S&P
Kiwibank says it'll no longer take credit rating services from S&P Global Ratings, with S&P's 'A' rating withdrawn. Kiwibank will continue to receive credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch, from whom it currently has 'A1' and 'AA' ratings. To meet Reserve Bank requirements banks must have at least one credit rating.
STRONG TRADE RETURN
Both China's exports and their imports were up strongly in June 2021. From June 2019, exports are up +32% and imports are up +42%. They booked a +US$32.6 trade surplus with the US, and a -US$9.2 bln deficit with Australia in June. With New Zealand their records show a -US$772 mln deficit for them. These results come despite well publicised shipping and container availability issues.
KIWIS DOMINATE
With their borders closed to most, Kiwis now made up almost 80% of all short term visitor arrivals into Australia in May - although that is likely to dip in July.
VIRUS UPDATE
There were 89 locally acquired cases in NSW yesterday and another death. And we are dealing with our own issues related to that fishing vessel now docked in Wellington.
KNOCKED
In Australia, June business confidence levels have taken a hit as their pandemic spread gathered pace in NSW and Queensland. But it was a pall that affected the whole country. However, despite this fall, they are still at strong levels.
GOLD FIRMS
Compared to where we were this tiome yesterday, the gold price is up +US$6/oz to US$1810/oz in early Asian trading.
EQUITIES ALL UP
Earlier today the S&P500 ended up +0.4% on Wall Street to start their week. In Tokyo today, their equity market is up another +0.8% in early trade after yesterday's huge rise. But it's Hong Kong's day to shine with a +1.3% rise in early trade there. Shanghai is up +0.4% in their early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in early afternoon trade, and the NZX50 Capital Index is flat in late trade.
SWAP & BONDS STABLE
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant changes again today, we will update this item. They are probably little-changed. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 0.33%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is unchanged at just on 1.34%. The China Govt ten year bond is down another -4 bps at 2.98%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is also down another -2 bps so far today at 1.53% and still below the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.54% (unchanged). The US Govt ten year is up a mere +1 bp from this time yesterday at 1.37%.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has firmed slightly today, down to just on 70 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are firmish from this time yesterday at 59 euro cents. So the TWI-5 is slightly firmer at 72.7 compared to where we were this time yesterday.
BITCOIN SAGS
The bitcoin price is now at US$33,136 and down -2.9% from where we were at this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 3.1%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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