Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the week is starting with new stresses in the world of commodities.
In China, who produces about half the world's steel (using coal fired furnaces), the price of steel is rising. In fact, it is on the rise everywhere. Not only is the global recovery behind the surge, but the expected faster transition to greener economic policies and incentives are also too, in an ironic way, adding to the rise. The Chinese want to lessen their use of coal in steel production, so output is expected to fall when demand is rising. And the big new infrastructure plans in the US are expected to pass in some significant form, keeping demand high. And the policy drive to build new 'greener' infrastructure in Europe adds further demand. Although some new steel-making capacity is being added, more is being taken out, and the rising demand is expected to be much faster than the ability of manufacturers to supply.
The iron ore price is staying at the top of its 2021 range (and some newish Aussie supply issues may be behind some of that), and steel making coal is up as well. Demand for thermal coal is rising for electricity production and to keep prices under control. To add irony, China is releasing supplies from its strategic reserves. Corn and rice prices are falling modestly, but soybean prices are staying very elevated. There is another dairy auction coming up this week, and more declines look like they are ahead with WMP possibly down -3.1% and SMP down -1.0%.
The Baltic Dry Index is still high but it isn't pushing any higher.
China has opened its carbon market with the first trades at NZ$11.50/tonne. (The NZU price is NZ$47.50/tonne and the EU price is NZ$82/tonne.) But it is a start towards their net zero target by 2050 goal. In contrast, the coalition partner of the Australian government has declared there is a "net zero chance" Australia will adopt a net zero carbon goal.
US retail sales data for June was much better than expected but the May decline was revised worse, so much of the gloss was taken off their June outcome.
And the shine was well and truly dulled by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for July. To be fair, this survey reported good gains in employment, but these were overwhelmed by sharply rising concerns about consumer inflation.
Back in Asia, Hong Kong is facing a two way vice. The US is warning its firms that the CPC takeover of the city is a serious security risk for them. And Beijing is pushing ahead with trying to make Shanghai its main investment and innovation center - at the expense of Hong Kong. Beijing is giving up on it in the face of the international pressure and just going all-in on Shanghai.
And as we have noted previously, China and other countries 'encouraged' to adopt its Sinovac vaccine, are now backtracking fast. Efficacy of Sinovac is low, and not effective against the Delta variant. China's vaccine diplomacy is collapsing in the Asian and African regions.
There were 105 new cases in NSW yesterday and another 18 in Victoria. Neither levels give confidence the Trans-Tasman travel bubble will re-open anytime soon. The COVID crisis in Indonesia is getting really bad. And sadly, it is a spreading problem in all of South East Asia. (Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, etc.)
Perhaps one day, the world will put this pandemic behind it. But there are likely to be lingering costs - "long COVID" is looking like a serious debilitating condition and so far getting up to 200 mln people worldwide have been recorded as having got it; probably very many more.
EU inflation data was out for June over the weekend, and because we had the German and French data already, it was no surprise that the +2.2% year-on-year level was as expected. But when it comes, the July levels might show what the rest of the world is showing. Still, +2.2% is relatively high for them.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at just on 1.30% and up +1 bp from this time Saturday. The US 2-10 rate curve has stayed flatter at +107 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also little-changed at +71 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also still at +125 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.26% and down -2 bps. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.97% and unchanged. The New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.65% and also unchanged.
The price of gold is now just on US$1812/oz which is down a mere -US$1/oz from this time Saturday.
Oil prices have also changed little so in the US they are now just under US$71.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$73/bbl. However, over the weekend OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day, moving to restore capacity they cut at the start of the pandemic.
The Kiwi dollar opens today just under 70 USc and small dip from where we left it Saturday. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 94.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 59.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today still at 73.
The bitcoin price is now at US$31,685 and down -1.0% from this time on Saturday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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85 Comments
Count retail sales (US) among the dead data. Like recent CPI’s and PPI’s, consumer spending on goods continues to be sky high – and yet markets (even stocks) don’t seem to care. For the month of June 2021, the Census Bureau believes total sales were up when compared to May, though not much as May’s estimate was revised lower.
At $621 billion during last month, this was 0.55% more than the prior one but significantly lower than April (and less than January). While Americans keep splurging, the nagging sense of the splurge being tied mostly to the federal government’s influence wasn’t reduced by this monthly retail sales report.
"Perhaps one day, the world will put this pandemic behind it."
Countries with higher vaccination rates already are. However difficult or costly we must advance. Hiding in a fox hole and praying for miracles will not achieve the outcomes we are now seeking.
To quote the motto under our national coat of arms:
"Onward!"
Covid cases are increasing in every state in the United States, while millions remain unvaccinated against the highly contagious Delta variant, warns the US surgeon general.
Dr Vivek Murthy raised concerns today over the fact that nearly all coronavirus deaths now are among the tens of millions of people who haven’t received shots.
This is despite widespread vaccine availability across the States, reports the Associated Press.
Dr Murthy told CNN’s State of the Union:
I am worried about what is to come because we are seeing increasing cases among the unvaccinated in particular.
And while, if you are vaccinated, you are very well protected against hospitalisation and death, unfortunately that is not true if you are not vaccinated.
Covid cases in the US increased by 17,000 last week over a two-week period for the first time since the autumn.
Believe the justification (if you are inclined to believe Hoskings for instance) is that they are pegged to equate returns from exports. vaguely recall years ago the same sort of argument being applied to power prices, even though obviously electricity is not exported. In terms of meat and dairy, don’t think in either case overseas markets could take the lot. My suggestion is that pricing is simply based on what the market will bear, more accurately, what they can get away with.
Not even close to the truth. We barely consume 5% of domestic milk, our beef and lamb gets a premium in other countries and our kiwifruit sells for ridiculous money overseas. Farmers do not have to subsidize nz consumers but in some cases they do or we are buying second grade. I bought avocados for 39c yesterday they are $7 in Singapore but they are smaller. Did you really think when we had 60 million sheep and 3 million people we needed 20 sheep each?
3L of milk in Australia $3.59 = $3.71 NZ. https://www.woolworths.com.au/shop/productdetails/35968/woolworths-full…
3L of milk in NZ $5.52. https://shop.countdown.co.nz/shop/productdetails?stockcode=282768&name=…
Not even close to the truth indeed.
Yes I have visited a number of milk processing sites as part of my work on the integrated recipes and supply chain management programme.
You are not providing any evidence of cost variation from your supposed experience; are you saying the costs of trucks or anything else is different? I call BS.
Not going to disclose confidential information on here now am I. Trucking costs are significantly different, employees vs contracted transport companies, palletised vs loose crate, in Australia there are even noticeable cost differences between states due to the refrigeration load.. Victoria vs North Queensland etc.
Its not a coincidence dairy companies are pushing more products to UHT to escape the high cost base of fresh milk.
I can buy 2 x 3lt for $6 at the local dairy. When I was a farmer I probably averaged about 25% of what beef sold for at a retail level. When I was in Mexico I could buy chicken/fish for a 3rd of the cost and I was 700km from the sea in a desert. Make of all that what you want. You seem to have a knack for it.
It's likely that any increased labour cost will flow through against reduction in volumes caused by reduction in productive output.
As Labour is only a variable cost, but fixed costs remain, any reduction in volume will inevitable impact farm profitability, shortages will then drive pricing up.
This might not happen month 1, but one season later last years failure to pick, plant, thin or trim will have flow on effects in the productivity of our export earners, labour or not......
And yet I saw a program about apple growers in Tasmania, who'd invested in a couple of elevators to get the apples into the bins. Because the workers only had to place the apples on the elevator, they didn't need burly Fijians, anyone could do it, it was quicker and the apples were less damaged.
That's how you improve productivity.
Because the workers only had to place the apples on the elevator, they didn't need burly Fijians, anyone could do it
Problem. These days many New Zealanders just won't work. Now you may accuse me of hate speech or being a happy fascist, but I have spent some time in Hawkes Bay over the years and have friends (contractors) in the orcharding and wider farming industry who all tell me that. The days when my and my brother's generation put ourselves through university by working at the freezing works, on Marsden Point or driving bulldozers etc. are long gone. Holy cow it is dirty, dangerous work and you have to be on site at 0700 in the morning or even earlier! And then, the people one has to work with ! The pub scene in Once Were Warriors was very real to me as the tiny white university student working on the chain (on the spreaders).
Frazz, farmers have no involvement in setting pricing to consumers. If you had a brain you would understand that the SUPERMARKETS set the price! Why should farmers subsidize consumers? You are one of those that continually moans about fictitious subsidies for farmers and then demands farmers subsidize you! Brain dead!
They have a limited amount of time to do anything as they are hardworking in the main. They are protesting at the lack of suitable replacement and therefore the unjustified implementation of a tax on their business. Fair enough in my eyes, however the LDV ute seems to be signalling a change in the wind?
The same scientists that have created the vaccines we will at some stage be invited to use are crying out for the UK to halt its opening up (in 12 hours time) due to the lack of community wide immunity. What this means is that the UK can look forward to not only increasing its already high levels of infection (54k yesterday) but also the creation of new virus variants. I am not a medical practitioner but it seems obvious that this is a bad idea.
I get that but what I don't understand is at what point will these scientists say "hey guy's the pandemic's over you can remove all restrictions & go back to normal". I don't see a point in time when that will happen as there will always be another Covid variant to deal with. So basically without overtly saying it you are advocating for never ending restrictions/lock downs. If this is your position why don't you just come out & say it? The UK started with "2 weeks to flatten the curve" this morphed into "lockdown till a vaccine", now you a saying "lockdowns forever".
No, you miss the point and miss the point.
We are overpopulated and drawing-down the resources of the planet at unsustainable rates (two side of the same coin). The exponential growth of both was unsustainable. In that light, the pandemic didn't reduce numbers enough to avoid collapse. But opening up to save 'the economy' is a false goal, too.
But overpopulation leads to an us-vs-them every time. Us is NZ, to me. Smaller suggests post-collapse. And NZ is better ex-virus, probably. Not going to happen, though. We will all open up, rather than collapse our 'economies' - which are really just mass resource-consumption regimes. Those are so close to collapse anyway (been on life-support since 2008, if you hadn't noticed) that they will probably rev up and fall over. So an invalid reason.
PDK
"We are overpopulated " Ah, have you checked out many large countries' population stats and age/sex pyramids recently ? No ? They are negative. Japan, h poster child of demographic collapse has had a shrinking population for years now and is being joined by China - two rather large populations. I can take you to places inTokyo where it is very quite, just a lot of old people dying and no children, and if you drive north into Tokhoku, whole towns and villages boarded up. If you are a young family, they will give you a free house and pay you to live there. Rural land is reverting to nature because there are no farmers or they are too od to till the land, leaving it to the pigs, deer and monkeys. Sort of a PDK, Green Party haven.
And then of course NZ's births per woman is down sound 1.6 against the ZPG or 2.1 Dayum , we need more immigrants ! Open the floodgates.
There must be some personal agency in such matters. The ability of all age groups in the UK to be vaccinated has been available for over a month now. If people wanted to be vaccinated they have now had that opportunity and 88% of the adult population have so far taken that opportunity. The government cannot force people to have vaccinations nor apply ongoing, onerous restrictions in daily life.
Covid-19 is killing far fewer people in the UK daily than smoking, obesity and is at a simular rate to flu.
Once most of the population in country is vaccinated and have high immunity from outsiders, may be people fully vaccinated should be allowed to move freely and if not and do not trust vaccine than why the entire exercise.
If vaccinated as advised by experts, may have covid but will be like normal flue and short term not leading to serious situation unless experts too are guessing.
May be people coming from high risk countries be asked to produce negative test result despite vaccinated or have facility of having one on arrival at airport with instant result in few hours, if do not trust reports / testing from some countries.
Time to move forward as already 16 months into lockdown and have to move with the world.
The issue is with the level of immunity in the community that allows protection for those that are unvaccinated. This is much higher than is currently the case everywhere except perhaps Israel.
What this means is not just that Covid is still highly active, but more importantly it will get a boost to the rates of mutation this will higher level of infection will allow. This will break the usefulness of vaccines and we are back to square one, or in fact square one minus one as the new mutation may be more lethal and we will have wasted all the sacrifice we have made thus far.
Madness.
"The issue is with the level of immunity in the community that allows protection for those that are unvaccinated". You are not keeping up with the times, vaccinated people can catch & spread the virus. [ This is false. There is no live virus in the vaccine, so it is impossible to spread it. Ed ] All vaccines do is lower the percent chance of hospitalization or death for someone who catches the virus. The Pfizer by 95%. The vaccines do not stop you catching the virus. So this idea of NZ vaccinating 98% of the population to keep COVID19 out will not work.
No, this is not correct. Vaccines also greatly reduce the viral load and hence the extent of any transmission. This happens because the immune system has been primed to react quickly and hence this reduces the viral build-up. What has changed with the delta variant and its high transmission rate is the level of vaccination of the population required to achieve herd immunity. We don't know with any precision what that transmission number is, but clearly it is a high number, and higher than the other variants. Also, it is not just the vaccination rate at the overall population level that is important, but the rate within sub-population groups.
KeithW
do you mean the stuff where you did experiments then WAITED to see what the results were?
https://www.informedchoiceaustralia.com/post/pfizer-vaccine-still-in-cl…
Stop trolling and start reading
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/rod-jackson-learning-to-die-from-covid-on…
I mean its up in the air at the moment the extent to which vaccines prevent the spread of COVID19. Israel is going for a third Pfizer shot to deal with delta so it doesn't look that good IMHO. However one thing is certain there are enough break through cases to render the idea of achieving herd immunity though vaccination a pipe dream. This is assuming we can achieve high vaccination rates in the first place? Which we won't. Expect 80% of adults max to take the vaccine. There are a lot of weirdo's in this country. The best we can do is offer all adults a vaccine & open back up. Either that or stay locked down indefinitely.
In essence this idea of vaccinating 98% of the population & then opening back up will not work on the basis of
1) Break though Covid19 cases
2) Sub-optimal vaccination numbers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/covid-breakthrough-cases-cdc-says-more-…
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dr-fauci-said-heres-happens-130120257.h…
We can't open up with 80% of adults vaccinated, because the resultant outbreak will be enough to over-run our already struggling health system.
Just taking the numbers from Australia's current outbreak of Delta, 10% of those infected are in hospital and around a quarter of those in intensive care.
Reducing rate of hospitalisation and death sounds good to me
Of course you have to get off your backside and do the vaccinations first. Now I wonder if a government would be able to implement an effective vaccine programme in any country in the world?
Oh yeah, lots, just not here.........
Dr Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA technology, messaged yesterday that those countries with the highest vaccination rates are seeing a worse resurgence of Covid than those less vaccinated.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worrying-me-quite-bit-mrna-vaccine-i…
In amongst all the chatter, that was the question I was contemplating this morning. Why indeed?
At least he buried one conspiracy theory I'd contemplated - I wondered if someone had thought of sterilising the population to reduce numbers, using the vaccine. But then Boris wouldn't have gotten himself jabbed. Unless, of course, he got himself jabbed with something else......
It's east to see how folk go down rabbit-holes in the absence of investigative journalism and in the face of interviews of one-discipline and even one-aspect experts.
at least we have the blanket character assassination of all doctors that question the official line to reassure us ...
the saving grace will be that our entire defence force isnt exposed ... oh wait
shame
because I thought some of the questions raised by these nutters were worthy of a response
https://nzdsos.com
Questions for your doctor
1. A comprehensive list of all of the ingredients in the Pfizer injection.
2. Comprehensive information about the potential benefits of the Pfizer agent -- will getting this agent prevent my contracting COVID or transmitting COVID? Will it have any effect on my immune response to the flu or other common respiratory viruses?
3. What are the potential adverse reactions to the Pfizer agent? As of today, how many people worldwide and in New Zealand have reported adverse reactions, how many of these have been major, and how many people have died?
4. What are the medical contraindications to the Pfizer injection?
5. How does the Pfizer injection differ from the fully researched and approved vaccines I have received in the past?
6. What happens to the synthetic mRNA that is injected into a person? Where does it go and how long does it stay within the body?
7. Where does the spike proteins travel within the body -- does it cross the blood-brain barrier? Can the spike proteins cause damage on its own? Can this protein trigger an autoimmune response towards vital organs? Is it linked to blood clots? Can the spike proteins be eliminated thoroughly and safely from the body?
8. What happens to the lipid nanoparticles that appear to be a part of the Pfizer agent? Where do they travel within the body? What are the potential adverse effects of having these particles within the body? Can they be eliminated?9. Who will assume liability if I develop an adverse reaction? Pfizer? The government? Myemployer? You?
10. I understand that the Pfizer injection is only authorised under provisional consent -- so that questions of long-term efficacy and safety have not yet been answered - am I correct in this? If so, do you believe, as my doctor, that I should receive this agent without such data available?
11. If I contract COVID after having received the Pfizer agent, how would you treat me?
12. If I become ill after the Pfizer injection, how will you be able to tell that it is caused by the Pfizer injection? Will you automatically report any symptoms/adverse effects that I will experience to CARM?
13. Are you aware of early treatment protocols for COVID, such as Ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, zinc, steroids, Vit-D and other medications? Would you be willing to prescribe these agents if I were to contract COVID?
14. If I have no symptoms of a respiratory virus, do you believe I can infect others, and if so,how?
15. How dangerous is COVID compared to other common respiratory viruses such as the flu? Can you provide me with some epidemiologic data?
16. If I agree to receive the Pfizer injection, will it protect me fully if I am exposed to any variant, current and future, of COVID?
17. If I have already been exposed to the virus, do I really need the Pfizer injection, and If I do, is there a risk of getting more sick if I am re-exposed again to the virus?
Scarfie
In this particular case, be careful you re not being led down a pathway of false knowledge. Dr Robert Malone is a scientist with a long career in viral science, but is not widely regarded as an 'inventor' of mRNA technology. The Malone Wikipedia page has been removed in recent days, and that reflects concerns about the messaging. In noting that reality, I draw no conclusions beyond simply make the point that Malone sits well outside mainstream thinking on some matters and may also be getting misquoted.
KeithW
His take on the Delta variant, more infectious, less deadly (similar to the seasonal flu)
https://www.peakprosperity.com/important-data-delta-variant-not-so-bad/
Interesting that you chose to try and discredit Malone rather than the information he presented.
If you haven't already seen it I've posted in the last few weeks about mortality displacement showing up in the USA. I personally downloaded a graph from the US CDC, which I assume has to publish the unadulterated statistics pertaining to total deaths from all causes. I posted over a hear ago the prediction of a friend of mine that is a professor of applied statistics. Part of his job is actually fact checking other peoples statistics for accurate representation. He made the prediction that Covid wasn't that serious and we would see mortality displacement following it. What that means is that Covid is simply killling mostly those already near death. My friend stated lockdowns were unnecessary and would have no effect overall on the death count. He has proven correct in his predictions and so has a lot of credibility. He further stated that lockdowns would ultimately kill more people than they saved, and the overal economic cost of lockdowns would far outweigh any benefits.
It is interesting to note from the CDC data that the peak, and subsequent drop in deaths in the USA happened while the vaccine rate was still relatively low. The abating of Covid can not be attributed to vaccine.
Feels like you are protesting far too much about Hong Kong's loss of economic power in the area. In 1997 after hand over, Hong Kong was over 18% of the Chinese economy. Now it's 2.5%. Shanghai is almost double the size of Hong Kong already in pure GDP terms. The shift has been ongoing for quite some time and it is more to do with China becoming a developed nation and upping it's per capita GDP significantly. Which has come about because of good Chinese economic policies on the mainland allowing them to catch up to Hong Kong.
There's a point at which developed countries plateau significantly compared to the growth rates of well managed developing ones. While HK GDP has doubled since 1997, Chinas is about 15 times the size. That's just China growing it's GDP, the fact they want to do more of that within their own system shouldn't surprise anyone. To make it seem like some sort of insidious attempt at undermining Hong Kong is a bit of a laugh.
It is a fact that all vaccines have the possible side effect of death.
It is each persons decision alone to evalute their chances of death from the vaccine or Covid. Or in fact their chances if complete health in spite of either.
Seems quite a lot of people have lost their objectivity in this whole Covid affair. But then that is predictable.
I should also remind you all the consequentialist ethics have no place in science. They are in fact anti science. All the talk of herd immunity is quite unscientific.
Yestrdray, against my better judgement and the advice of some of my nursing friends, I got my second Covid jab and found that, along with a few nurses and doctors, I was the only white person in the building complex apart from the medical staff who were all politically incorrect nurses and doctors by virtue of their ethnicity. I asked why and was told by the very pleasant and very numerous staff that their iwi was running the operation. I had originally been scheduled to get my second one from the same place I got my first in Mount Albert, but got a text directing me to the new site. I asked quite a few of my fellow innoculees (?) who reported that they too had been re-assigned at the last minute.Sort of fits in with the government requirement that a percentage (can’t remember how much right now, but it is in double digits) of government contracts must go to Maori irrespective of capability and that the private sector is going to be evaluated on how many and much of their supply and service contracts comply with the same “target." So much for a democracy of equal opportunity. Just think, in the not too distant future you could be attended in a New Zealand hospital by a fully qualified Tohunga. yay (?).
This personal experience fits in with recent experience in my job as a ridshare driver. As I watch my country slide down the slippery slope to Apartheid and becoming a Third World economy, I am bidden by my experience of a recent ride I gave to a part Maori woman who identified herself as manager of one of Auckland City Council’s departments. She informed me that they had stopped hiring heterosexual, white males quite a while ago and that with natural turnover, they should be "free of them in the not too distant future." I asked her about technical, academic and other standards and was told that “ we are slowly getting rid of such colonial practices in the interests of diversity." In similar rides given to young white and Asian men, it would appear they have figured out the situation here and are off to OZ with its huge wage differentials and lower cost of living. One, a Chinese immigrant bank economist graduate of a New Zealand university said that he was leaving for Oz for the reasons I have just given along with the fact that, as in many other cases, after a woman was appointed to be head of his team several years ag he is now the only male left and is constantly being pressured to leave. This has already cleared out male staff from most positions in the liberal arts faculties of our universities. Similarly, I gave rides to several blokes in the IT sector who both told me that in interviews the first question they were asked, even before going over their resume and suitability for the job, was “ and what pronoun you wish to use and be addressed by.” This is exactly why Jordan Peterson started his rebellion against Canada’s infamous state imposed language laws that have subsequently made him a world wide best selling author and one of the most watched figures on YouTube and other media. Just in case you were wondering about why this government is failing to execute on all fronts and at every level.
While I have also have these experiences I don't suppose they are representative of a country-wide set of failings. I would however agree that it does seem as though government departments etc are going through this change. It will make a change but perhaps this is what it felt like to them when middle aged white men like myself were running the show. I am not woke, far from it, but I am ok for us to at least try operating when diversity is for more important and it becomes key to operations. When we can see this is pervasive we can asses its success or otherwise.
Perhaps it is just market forces as employers realized they could pay women and new migrants less wages for more work. After a few of the companies I worked in paid the female staff up to 50% less than the male trainees they were teaching, managing and doing more complex independent engineering work at the same time... Most of the smart women left the country a long time ago or left the industry for a good reason. All skilled professionals regardless of gender, sex, race, creed, age etc find better employment opportunities, wages and wellbeing measures like housing overseas, not just the male ones with paler skin. When you have 1000+ applicants for 6 jobs where technical experience is not viewed as important anymore compared to meeting and reporting design it does not take a rocket scientist to see there would be a lot of disgruntled job seekers seeking greener pastures.
Even worse is the fact the industry already knows employment bias is still heavily against women, local minorities and the disabled in the industries you mention from hard data collected across the board. We often hire from overseas more than we hire locally and those hired have a glass ceiling they hit at a certain age. The ageism in some sectors like STEM fields is also well known, critically studied and understood. Perhaps your friends were getting to that age. Many of my colleagues and friends hit it and by a certain age you become blacklisted and need to start hiding past decades of experience in case you become "too experienced" for a role you apply for. Hence many start going into self employment around then.
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