Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC ended all its special low rates, adding substantial increases and taking its offers more in line with the major banks.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
TSB and SBS Bank both announced higher term deposit rates late last night. And today, HSBC did the same, bringing its rates into a more competitive alignment with most other New Zealand banks.
NO MUCKING AROUND
The trans-Tasman travel bubble has been suspended for 'at least' two months, making it look like it will be October before it returns. New Zealanders in Australia have a week to return home.
REASONABLE WATER SITUATION
Our hydro storage lakes are filling fast and are now 30% fuller than the long term average for this time of year. Overall inflows have been unusually strong in June and July, in fact now at November levels already. But Auckland's water storage lakes are only 57% full whereas the normal for this time of year is 82%.
RECOVERY INTERUPTUS
The growth streak for the Australian private sector ended in July according to Flash PMI® data which showed business activity now in contraction. Survey respondents signaled that renewed pandemic restrictions affected demand and output countrywide.
A FEW PESKY MISTAKES
Large Aussie insurer IAG, which has a dominant position in the New Zealand general insurance market, has reported a -AU$427 mln loss for the year to June, 2021 compared with a AU$435 mln profit in the same period in 2020.Much of this reversal is due to a AU$1.15 bln provision for paying business interruption claims it thought it had avoided in the pandemic but for which the courts have said it is liable. Other class action, compliance and refund provisioning takes those one-time costs up to AU$1.5 bln or AU$1.0 bln after tax. They claim the rest of their business is performing well; just a few pesky mistakes caught it out. Ahem ... (IAG NZ would have been part of the FMA's NZ conduct and culture review released yesterday, where only two of 42 insurers passed. But because the companies reviewed weren't named or shamed, it is hard to know where IAG NZ stands on that.)
THE PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
There were 136 new community cases in NSW today, and another 14 in the community in Victoria where their lockdown is in extension with the border closed to NSW. South Australia is also in lockdown. Queensland has closed it border with NSW, which is a last-resort action for them. There were new cases in New Zealand, all caught at the border (mostly among ship crews), none in the community.
GOLD'S FIRMS
Compared to where we were this time on yesterday, the gold price is up +US$4/oz to US$1804/oz in early Asian trading.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 Capital Index is flat near the end of its Friday session. For the week it is heading for a tiny +0.3% gain. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in early afternoon trade and heading for a weekly rise of +0.6%. Tokyo is closed again as part of its Olympic preparations (Sports Day). Hong Kong has opened down -0.7%. Shanghai is down -0.3% in early trade. Earlier, the S&P500 ended its session up +0.2% and closer to its record high.
SWAP & BONDS RATES LOWER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet and if there are significant ongoing changes we will note them here. They probably flattened again. The 90 day bank bill rate up + bp at 0.46%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is unchanged so far at just on 1.20%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 2.94%. The New Zealand Govt ten year is actually down -3 bps at 1.52% and now the same as the earlier RBNZ fix of 1.52% (-8 bps). The US Govt ten year is down a minor -1 bp to 1.28%.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar has made a further comeback today to now be just on 69.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 94.5 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 59.2 euro cents. So the TWI-5 has risen to just on 72.8.
BITCOIN UP AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$32,670 and up almost +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 1.6%.
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35 Comments
Interested to see Bitcoin's price action over the weekend, especially come Sunday evening. I'm expecting range-bound-trading with the price trending up.
It would seem the draw-down might be over, yet I question the amount of 'dry powder' retail investors can muster over the weekend. I expect many retail investors and engaged institutional investors defended the price sub 30k.
At current prices institutional investors might access some liquidity to invest over the next week or two.
We havent quite broken out of the diagonal downwards trend line yet. we Have to get above that and hold/retest it with conviction before we go anywhere.
Love how every one becomes bullish as soon as it bounces a few percent lol.
Not selling either way but still think we have some further downside to come.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KufBGmiq/
Where do you crypto people get your news from? Exchanges are getting hit with regulation all over the place.
What institutional investor is going to start touching crypto right now?
A couple of the current headlines from https://decrypt.co:
Singapore Offers Crypto a Safe Haven in Turbulent Times
Texas Is Third State This Week to Target BlockFi's Bitcoin Savings Accounts
Alabama Regulators Suggest BlockFi's Bitcoin Accounts Are Unregistered Securities
And the most important MSM piece of the week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBEqyiO35cQ&t=1s
I'm not sure the crypto believers will understand the context here so look at the comments below for a sentiment check. This is showing from a company with a 61B balance sheet that fundamental to the cypto trade. The skeptics believe this interview confirms their analysis that Tether is a fraud, Cramer included.
Out of curiosity is decrypt.co FUD to you? There is enough on there to justify liquidating any crypto assets back to your bank account.
Zack's hoping for more institutional investment. They might expect to know tethers actual holdings or avoid getting their balance sheet assets associated with an AML investigation.
We're talking Bitcoin here, not all inclusive "crypto".
You don't need an exchange to send Bitcoin, that's the point. Bitcoin has been sold on street corners and outside shops.. ever heard of localbitcoins..
This 'crack down' on exchanges.. really? Exchanges are being listed on global stock markets, ETF like products are coming out all the time.
If for some reason large exchanges are unable to trade, I imagine large amounts of Bitcoin might be stuck on exchanges, causing a supply shortage and subsequent price increases. Bitcoin wont care, people will just build better on and off ramps or conduct business in Bitcoin.
What's happening in El Salvador is fascinating. National currency [though granted US Dollars] working hand-n-hand with Bitcoin. Best of both worlds perhaps..?? we'll see how it goes.
More news:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/binance-suspends-withdrawals-pounds-ster…
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/07/21/eu-will-make-bitcoin-traceable…
Crypto has been noticed by regulators.
The global shortage of US$ or Eurodollars is by far the most bullish argument towards Bitcoin. This is the reason for the El Salvador policy and explains the skeptics thesis on Tether (look that up if your are interested it involves Chinese CP).
https://coinlib.io/coin/BTC/Bitcoin
Tether to BTC trade determines the price of bitcoin and the other coins move with bitcoin. Also note the drop off in trading volumes.
You are obviously talking about Australia. In New Zealand things are still trucking along. The past 18 months have only seen a 50% reduction in the tourism industry (all int'l related) and a crash landing for the int'l 'education' industry. Both have been over-promise and under-perform for some time. Personally I'm glad to be able to afford to travel in my own country again. I have absolutely NO political affiliation, but I'm glad that we continue to follow a path that continues to outshine others.
The past 18 months have only seen a 50% reduction in the tourism industry (all int'l related) and a crash landing for the int'l 'education' industry.
"Apparently", their impacts on the economy were benign, despite both being supposedly up the rankings on value to the economy.
1 Delta overspill from 1 quarantine hotel, driver, or foreign fisherman then Auckland or Wellington or Christchurch will be just like Sydney within days.
Oh whoops New Plymouth https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300365275/covid19-d…
Meanwhile... It's world ivermectin day tomorrow. An event organised by scientists who're trying to bring about awareness to a safe, cheap, and effective medication which should really signify the end of the pandemic. Rather despairingly though, NZ seems to be doubling down on the fear induced lockdowns, and publicly admonishing scientists who dare to challenge the current strategy.
Meanwhile, the leading study on ivermectin use against COVID was proven to be a fraud with fabricated results and withdrawn, and another peer reviewed meta-study was published saying it doesn't work.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-i…
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab591/63…
I support ivermectin day, if it is sharing the latest published information on the drug.
Removing one study doesnt materially affect the mountain of evidence https://ivmmeta.com/
Retail rates increasing, slowly but steadily. It will be interesting to see what happens in August, when an OCR increase of 0.25% is almost a given, at least according to current market pricing, but there is some hope that Orr will not be so shortsighted and go for a double OCR increase instead.
Actually David, my reading of the insurance companies conduct and culture review findings by the FMA showed that they did say that the two companies that satisfied their queries were IAG and the Medical Assurance Society, so why single IAG out as an unknown complying entity in the day's overview report?
My current favourite Interest chart.
https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/qv-house-price-index.
(The cursor must be dragged all the way back- to infinity and beyond)
This is some real hardcore DGM stuff from one of Aussie's most ardent perma-bulls, Christopher Joye, who is also a fan boy of the RBA and bubble economics. Worth a read and unlocked from the paywall.
The complete shuttering of most economic activity in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia is not a recession but, rather, a depression. The only other scenario that could conceivably induce such total paralysis would be outright war.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/sydney-s-extended-lockdown-…
"Our hydro storage lakes are filling fast and are now 30% fuller than the long term average for this time of year."
They are filling fast, but link below suggests they are (just) below long term average, rather than 30% above.
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