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GDP rises 0.6% in March quarter, boosted by manufacturing, wholesale trade & forestry

GDP rises 0.6% in March quarter, boosted by manufacturing, wholesale trade & forestry

March quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.6%, Statistics New Zealand said today, in line with economists' expectations.

(Update adds detail, economist's comments).

The quarterly figure was down from 09.% growth in the three months to December 2009 but marks the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion.

Statistics New Zealand said GDP in the March quarter was bolstered by a 1.6% increase in manufacturing activity, a 1.4% rise in wholesale trade and a 5.3% lift in forestry and logging activity, due to overseas demand for New Zealand logs.

JP Morgan Chase Bank economist Helen Kevans noted annual GDP growth of 1.9% versus the March quarter of last year was the fastest rate of growth in two years.

"The belated nature of the GDP data means, however, that it has few implications for RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard’s policy deliberations going forward," said Kevans.

She said the growth drivers were largely as expected, although net exports again subtracted from growth and investment added to growth, driven by an increase in exploration activity.
 
"Looking ahead, our forecast is for the New Zealand economy to continue expanding at a healthy pace in 2Q and 3Q, before slowing toward year-end," said Kevans.
 
"We expect that net exports will (finally) add to economic growth in coming quarters, provided that the troubles in Europe do not spillover into the real economy, prompting downgrades to our global growth forecasts, and that household consumption will pick up considerably."
 
She said consumers were likely to bring forward spending ahead of the October 1 GST hike, as happened when GST was introduced in 1986 and again in 1989 when it was increased.
 
"Back then, there was a significant increase in spending in the months immediately before the rise in the consumption tax, with spending subsequently falling. Post GST hike, the vacuum left by the ‘bring forward’ of spending, rising interest rates, and more moderate house price growth should mean household spending weakens considerably." 

Read Statistics New Zealand's statement below:

Activity in the New Zealand economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 0.6 percent in the March 2010 quarter, Statistics New Zealand said today. This latest increase follows growth of 0.9 percent in the December 2009 quarter.

By industry, the largest movements in the March 2010 quarter were:

* manufacturing activity, up 1.6 percent, led by machinery and equipment, and metal products

* wholesale trade, up 1.4 percent, following a 2.7 percent increase in the December 2009 quarter

* forestry and logging, up 5.3 percent, related to overseas demand for New Zealand logs

* communication services, down 2.0 percent, due to fewer phone call minutes.

Economic activity in the March 2010 quarter was up 1.9 percent compared with the March 2009 quarter. This contrasts with a 3.1 percent contraction in economic activity between the March 2008 and March 2009 quarters.

"The economy has grown in all four quarters to the end of March 2010," said Acting National Accounts Manager Jason Attewell.

"However, economic activity is still below the level seen before the recession, particularly for manufacturing and construction."

The expenditure measure of GDP also increased 0.6 percent in the March 2010 quarter. The production measure of GDP shows the volume of goods and services produced in the economy, while the expenditure measure shows how those goods and services were used.

Household consumption expenditure, which measures the volume of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households, was up 0.2 percent this quarter. An increase in the volume of durable goods purchased by households (furniture and major appliances, used cars, and clothing) was partly offset by lower volumes of non-durable goods (food and petrol), and services this quarter.

Central government expenditure was up 1.9 percent in the March 2010 quarter. During the March 2010 quarter the government accepted delivery of the $93 million offshore patrol vessel HMNZS Otago. Without the purchase of this ship, central government expenditure would have been up 0.8 percent.

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