House values down 1.1% since March as lack of buyers and finance see prices glide lower, Quotable Value reports

House values down 1.1% since March as lack of buyers and finance see prices glide lower, Quotable Value reports

Property values have fallen 1.1% since March and are continuing to gradually fall because of a lack of buyers, a surplus of listings and a lack of finance, Quotable Value said in its report for August.

Values across New Zealand were now 5.0% below their peak levels of late 2007, but are still 3.1% above their levels from a year ago because of a bounce in late 2009 and early 2010.

The government owned valuer is the first to release a national report on housing values for August. See the full report here and the full spreadsheet here.

Auckland's largest real estate agency Barfoot and Thompson reported last week that house prices fell in August and volumes fell. See more on Barfoot's report here. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand's report for August is due next week.

"The market sentiment remains cautious with little sign of urgency amongst buyers," QV Valuation Manager Glenda Whitehead said in the report, available in full here.

"There is still a considerable backlog of unsold property on the market, although the number of new properties being added to this pool appears to have slowed as potential vendors choose to wait until the market begins to show signs of recovery," Whitehead said.

"Those with properties currently on the market now accept that they will take longer to sell, although they are not dramatically dropping their asking prices," she said.

Sales volumes remained at relatively low levels below last year and long term averages.

“Some potential buyers are continuing to struggle to secure funding from banks or finance companies who remain cautious about lending for property” said Whitehead.

“The continued lack of buyer urgency, the low number of sales, and the high number of unsold properties means that prices continue to gently slide backwards in most areas," she said.

'Signs of recovery?'

"There are early signs of a slight increase in activity as more people are assessing the market and considering their options. The housing market is usually more active in spring although the current economic climate suggests any upsurge this year will be modest. Short of any fundamental change in the market, values are expected to continue to slide slightly."

Whitehead said the Christchurch earthquake would have a major impact on the housing market in that area, but it was too early to know the full extent.

While values have declined according to the QV index, the average sales price increased slightly from $407,191 to $409,700.

"This increase in average price is due to relatively fewer sales of lower value properties over recent months. The QV index is a more reliable measure of value change as it is not based on average sales prices and is not affected by which parts of the market are more or less active," QV said.

"All the main centres are showing a similar pattern over the last year with values increasing through until March then easing since. Apart from Hamilton and Tauranga, values in the main centres are still above the same time last year, although the gap is rapidly closing. Values in the Auckland Region have been flat over recent months, but as values were increasing rapidly this time last year, the year-on-year gap has closed further to 5.9 percent from the 6.9 percent reported last month," it said.

"Values in the Wellington region have dropped in recent months and are now only 2.0 percent above last year, down from the 3.2 percent reported last month. Values in Christchurch values are 3.2 percent above last year, and in Dunedin 2.7 percent. Values in Hamilton (-1.5 percent) and Tauranga (-0.9 percent) are now both below the same time last year. Unlike the other main centres, these two cities didn’t show a significant increase in values during 2009, instead staying relatively flat."

Declining values in recent months have therefore pushed values lower than they were the same time last year, it said.

Values in most of the provincial centres remain above the same time last year, although the gap continues to close. Napier (3.2 percent), New Plymouth (3.3), Wanganui (4.2%), Nelson (2.6) and Invercargill (3.0) all remain above last year. Rotorua (1.0 percent), Gisborne (0.3 percent), Hastings (1.3 percent) and Palmerston North (1.6 percent) now have values similar to last year.

Declining values in recent months mean that values in Whangarei are now 2.8 percent below the same time last year, and Queenstown Lakes values are 1.5 percent below the same time last year.

See the full regional details from QV's report below.

Auckland

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows that property values in the Auckland region are just beginning to stabilise, although have dropped by 0.7% since March this year. In contrast, values increased by 6.7% in the 7 months to March. Consequently, values now sit 5.9% above the same time last year, but 2.4% below the market peak of late 2007.

Glenda Whitehead of QV Valuations said; “Values in the Auckland region’s residential market now appear to levelling, although it is too soon to tell whether this is the end of the downward trend which has persevered since March”.

“August activity remained light and caution prevails, but we are seeing early signs that home owners are gearing up to make decisions. We suspect many are assessing their options and actively seeking information, as we have noticed a recent in increase in Market Valuation reports by QV’s registered valuers”

Ms. Whitehead said. “Some home owners are taking advantage of readily available builders, planning extensions and alterations to their existing homes. While this data is not fed into the QV index, it is a sign that home owners view the property market positively enough to believe the cost of renovations will be recouped in the future. Cost and added-value differ, but those we speak to are making long-term decisions whilst enjoying a higher quality home in the short-term. This activity is obviously only being undertaken by those in secure employment and with good levels of equity in their homes” Ms. Whitehead said.

“The North Shore market remains patchy, with no push from buyers. The time taken to sell a property remains extended, with agents reporting low activity levels. However, we believe pre-approvals and requests for refinance are on the rise, a possible signal of a pending bounce in the spring market” Ms. Whitehead said.

“Auckland City is characterised by general lack of confidence. Higher quality properties are still faring reasonably well and some good prices are still being achieved when the right buyer finds the right property. Buyers appear more demanding of quality, and are overlooking properties that have any negatives” Ms. Whitehead said.

“Activity in West Auckland remains subdued and buyers remain cautious, as in other parts of the region. Many home owners are refinancing their existing situation. Of the homes that are selling, those that are upgraded and well located tend to be the ones that find a buyer” Ms. Whitehead said.

“Activity in the South and South East market also remains subdued. Values do however appear to be relatively steady with fewer listings and fewer sales. The lower end of the market, sub $300,000, now appears to have become more attractive to investors, reflecting improved yields. But again, buyers remain cautious. Anecdotally, activity in the $400-600k bracket seems limited.

Uncertain economic conditions continue to dampen confidence” Ms. Whitehead said. QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for the Auckland region in July was $535,918.

Hamilton

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows that property values in Hamilton are slowly easing.

Unlike most other major centres, Hamilton did not experience significant value recovery from mid to late 2009. Subsequently, values are now 1.5% below the same time last year, and 10.4% below the market peak of 2007.

Mr. Richard Allen of QV Valuations said; “For the second consecutive month, all parts of the city experienced declines in residential property values. However, the average sale price for the city actually increased slightly from $352,576 in July to $356,016, which is a reflection of sales composition, rather than a value increase. Traditionally, the onset of spring and early summer results in a lift confidence and mood with an associated surge in sales activity and volume. However, this year it is hard to see where the stimulus is going to come from. It appears that uncertainty in the economic recovery is going to continue to stifle the residential market in Hamilton for some time to come”.

QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets.

Tauranga

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows that property values in Tauranga are beginning to ease. Unlike most other major centres, Tauranga did not see significant value gains in 2009.

Subsequently, values are now 0.9% below the same time last year, and 11.3% below the market peak of late 2007.

Mr. Shayne Donovan-Grammer of QV Valuations said; “The Tauranga property market is currently experiencing a difficult period. Confidence in the market is lacking and there is no expectation of a short to medium term improvement. The level of activity is as light as any time in recent memory which is creating a build up of listings. Values as a consequence are gently slipping for open market transactions while forced sales are showing considerable discounts”.

“Some listings have sat for quite some time and now run the risk of being over exposed. To sell a home it is imperative to have the property in good presentation, realistically priced and to work hard with buyers to reach a solution” Mr. Donovan-Grammer said. “Buyers, or people who are building, are doing so more for their own quality of life and housing, rather than looking to make capital gains. At this stage, any hope that the market will hold largely depends on stable interest rates”

Mr. Donovan-Grammer said. QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates inline with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets.

The average sales price for Tauranga in July was $410,798.

Wellington

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows that property values in the Wellington region have continued to decrease, by 2.2% since March this year.

In contrast, values increased by 4.4% in the 7 months to March. Consequently, values now sit 2% above the same time last year, but 5.4% below the market peak of early 2008.

Mr. Kerry Buckeridge of QV Valuations said; “The residential property marketing in Wellington is currently characterised by softening values and relatively modest sales volumes. This is a continuation of the general trend established over the last few months”.

“Many agents continue to find it difficult to get sales across the line, as buyers are thin on the ground and being very cautious. Exceptions appear to be home-handyman bargains at the bottom of the market, as well as very good quality properties at the top of the market” Mr. Buckeridge said.

“At the top end there have been some good sales. These properties are very well located and of good quality. It appears as though buyers in this segment recognise that properties of this quality do not come to market too often. If they want this type of property, they are acting” Mr. Buckeridge said.

“In more buoyant times, activity is often generated by people upgrading to higher quality homes. At present, we get the impression that most people are consolidating and paying down existing debt rather than trading up. In Wellington, this conservative financial stance may be driven by the ongoing cost-cutting and restructuring within the public service sector. Even if there has been no direct effect on individual circumstances, many are playing it safe and battening-down the hatches” Mr. Buckeridge said.

“We are however just starting to see the early stages of the traditional spring market, with an increase in listings coming to market. This phenomenon tends to occur every year as the weather begins to improve and we don’t consider this activity to be the beginning of any sustained recovery” Mr. Buckeridge said.

QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates inline with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for the Wellington region in July was $455,144.

Christchurch

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows property values in Christchurch have begun to ease for the first time since February, after increasing steadily through 2009.

Consequently, values at the end of August sat 3.2% above the same time last year, and 4.7% below the market peak of 2007 as the graph below illustrates: Although there were some early indications of a spring resurgence in Christchurch through August, it remains to be seen what impact the recent major earthquake will have on the residential property market. It will take several months of new data before a trend emerges. QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets.

The average sales price for Christchurch in July was $373,264.

Dunedin

QV’s Residential Price Index for August shows that property values in Dunedin have continued to decrease, by 1.8% since March this year. In contrast, values increased by 3.6% in the 7 months to March. Consequently, values now sit 2.7% above the same time last year, but 5.5% below the market peak of 2008.

Mr. Tim Gibson of QV Valuations said; “The property market in Dunedin shows a continuation of the flat to declining growth that has been evident over the winter period. This trend has been evident in all sub-sectors of Dunedin”. “August has been characterised by fewer listings of residential property and continued low numbers of active buyers in the market. A total of 400 sales were registered within Dunedin city for the month of August, which is a decrease of 13% from the previous month” Mr. Gibson said.

“Well presented dwellings are still moving reasonable quickly, as long as the vendor is realistic and ready to meet current market conditions, and not holding out for values experienced in 2007. The onset of spring has historically seen a period of stronger residential value growth within Dunedin, but this will depend on the number of active buyers in the market substantially improving” Mr. Gibson said.

“Other economic indicators are pointing to a lack of confidence within the property market at present, such as the volume of building consents issued for the month of August. The number issued for August is 9% below the same month in 2009. August 2009 was the time that property values started to experience moderate growth which fuelled the building activity. With the current flat market it is not surprising that building activity has also declined” Mr. Gibson said.

QV’s Residential Price Index is calculated using sales data from the 3 months leading up to the month being reported. It is not the same as the average sales price, which fluctuates in line with the mix of properties selling in upper or lower price brackets. The average sales price for Dunedin in July was $274,485.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Prices are still up in most areas, or maybe flat. This is very good. Makes all the crazy  doom and gloom people look silly. No where property fallen 30% or even 15% has Hickey said.

Ch"CH disaster will mean much more work for everyone and so summer will see big upside and gloom people will have to eat words

I didn't mean the driver, I meant the guy that could be now minus 2 legs - he is asian!!

You hit it on the head in your final sentence.  Apparently they are that narrow-minded, short-sighted and selfish.  What kind of person wants to perpetuate a situation which acts as an enormously damaging cancer on the entire economy, just so they can feel superior on completely fallacious grounds, and lord it over some imaginary underclass? 

'Little Men' is the kind.

Prick anyone who needs something to be bigger so they can feel good, and you'll find one.

I blame the female of the species - they used to choose champion spear-throwers to breed with, but now it's PI's and FI's.

They dropped the ball.

Calm down John D...Paula and Bill are working on solutions...they plan a new benefit....to be known as the Real Estate Commission Support Payment Scheme (RECSPC) not to be confused with the RSPCA...ok!.............buildings are being built and pointy heads appointed to another...wait for it....another bloody welfare white Elephant. As a spinoff expect the flow of borrowed munny to pork the wgtn property ponzi scheme.

 

"17 trillion USD saved up  ............................no banks would want to touch it"

And you believe that? What form of 'money' could this possibly be? Cash? Could this be the famed (but non existent) "cash on the sidelines" 

Agents tell me that one in ten houses sold are leaky houses.  Half price many times..  This will change figures a lot. QV should take out leaky houses sales as not real sales.

"QV should take out leaky houses sales as not real sales" 

We've had the leaky homes issue for the best part of ten years now so you can't claim a statistical blip.

Very foolish to start dicking around to that extent in any case BD. Where do you draw the line? 

Properties with deferred maintenance, distressed vendors, near a new noisy road, houses over 50years, mortgagee sales etc are all likely to sell at lower prices.

The stats should be a compilation of the sales of the existing stock - warts and all.

I am not a fan of using average prices, median prices will automatically screen out extreme highs and lows, your "10% at half price"  would barely affect median prices since they represent the true mid price. 

Don't go dragging facts, evidence and fundamentals into this.  You'll just confuse the RE agents and the vacuums inside their heads will implode, and we'll be overrun with all these little raisin-headed people babbling about indoor-outdoor flow.

Wonderful. I think that about sums it up.

Often bubbles have one last super stupid rise, maybe it is yet to come...

I'm now getting the hang of renting, just don't know what to do with myself at weekends. Where were they all these years?

Me too ! Gained a sense of freedom ...........unshackled by the burden of maintenance and mortgage ............ ahhhhhhhh , free at last , free at last , praise God , I'm free at last ..............

............. now wot the feck am I supposed to do with all this extra time ...?

Just gave mine up . Took Bruce Sheppard's advice not to whore yourself by working for a firm you don't respect ................. Truth be told , I never worked for Fairfax , but I was employed there for 10 years .

I still think this is the best summary I've read in weeks.

It is now but for the stroke of a pen by a pointy head in wgtn that the peasants continue in the belief that they make the decisions which determine their own lives. Kiwi peasant has yet to wake up to the fact that for four days and an hour or so each week, peasant works for the govt, for local govt and a bank or a landlord( and an insurance company). The last two hours on the Friday are all they are allowed, to earn a few dollars which will not be stolen from them by one sod or another. This, they get to show the family in the weekend...the lesson for the sprogs...this is what your life will be like...but only if you behave yourself and work really hard at school and borrow tens of thousands to get a qualification...otherwise you can expect to miss out on this wonderful life...you will have to make do with a benefit...not for you the pleasure of working for a living..."now take these few dollars down to the supermarket and buy your mother her Lotto ticket for a better life" 

Makes you thankful for good govt doesn't it! Long live the property ponzi economy. Long live the fat profits at the banks.

Wolly this resonates.  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/president-urgent . . . . Long live the fiat :)     Go the Wollies.

A good flat 5% independant of value, What?  Nah make it 15 and why stop there.  Churn?  Cut the toes off anyone who doesn't buy anything they REALLY need.

But property taxes have been rising at 10% per annum for the last decade or more (ok its a personal guesstimate but the point holds). They are called rates, perhaps you haven't noticed.

Wolly is right. Suckers work for Govt all week long and nothing over.  Clever people make extra  income by owing property. Renters and wage earners will be screwed for ever by landlords and Govt. Everyone should own property then everyone can be rich.

Quite right bigdaddy....we can all be stinking rich if only we could all become landlords and be tenants of each other and claim income support from Paula. .....Hey Bill English....Big Daddy has the answer to all our problems...."Bill"...."BILLLLLL". .....bugger.

I think we're on the point of detecting a tiny flaw in his logic.

But he's clearly a Poe anyway, so whatever.

Which raises the question - why are there no real property bulls?

Can someone from the NZ Gliding Association inform me if a 1.1 % reduction over 5 months could be construed as " gliding " . Geez Bernard , you are full of it ! No gummibars for you , today ................ And no 30 % oops , I mean 15 % fall in property . 5 % down from the top , only .

 Not quite the armageddon in real estate that was touted here at " interest.co.nz "  is it  !.

A parachute ............ why ? At 1.1 % over 5 months ............ it'll take 10 years to reach the crunching bone-shattering impact of Hickey's 30 % house price fall . 5 years less if his 15 % amendment is achieved . Still enough time to trot out a novel that would rival Tolstoy's " War and Peace " . ............... Parachute .... tch tch !

[ we in the Gummy Bear Appreciation Society would prefer that you learn to say , " It's moments like these , you need Gummy Bears , sucker " . ]

You overlook the erosion of purchasing power from inflation. We are already 15% down from the peak in rough real terms.

Yessssssssss ! I saw some tweaking of the figures by Bernard , trying to massage reality into a shape that fitted his hare-brained prognostications ...........Grasping at straws , attempting to regain some credibility .

Oddly enuff , public enema #1 around here , Tony Alexander , has been closer to the mark than the Hickster . Surprise , that !

So wotcha saying is that TA's clients have skin-in-the game  ,  munny invested , so he's gotta make better calls than Hickey . TA's arse is on the line if he gets it wrong .

Whereas Bernard has no responsibility . He can mouth off any old malarky , and there is no consequence , no come-back for getting it wrong . Just a dozen or so miffed bloggers .

Hmmmmmmm !

Nobody. Cares.

FFS stop whinging and register if it's such a big honking deal.

Krrrrrrrrrrrrrrist.........there has got to be more to to blog on than this....English has just informed you that you don't need to be informed when making decisions involving your money.... and we are still talking about  this s*#t.

You know in  a way Banky Boy likes this ....in Ali's words .."there is no bad publicity...just publicity"

You want to see something slide into oblivion ..? then drop it  from your interest list...as the passion... fervour...vitriol...declines  the rest will take care of itself.

There is.  A good interview with Lord Stern on Nat Radio, as I type.

ta..

made me feel quite smug. Laptop charging on the solar panel.....might have another coffee.

all RE agents are a bunch of bullshiteing Wallys!

Oh I say that's a bit much old boy...Wally feels pain you know!

basing your house buying assessments on the monthly QV and REINZ stats. is stupid!

there is no mean average or hard fast formula to follow when buying...vendors in dire straits will take a lower offer than those that are in no hurry etc.

just because over the years Spring has always hearlded an upsurge in sales and lsiting etc doesn't mean this will follow again.

there is no pattern to anything anymore..that is the pattern!

if you like the house and want to live in it for say, 7 years..buy it!

And many Marlborough properties remain unsold after wait for it.......more than 3 years, some as long as 5 years!....none of them have been included in the weeks to sell data of course...must not have the truth getting out.

velly solly wolly/wally...a burger voucher is in the mail as i type!

velly solly wolly/wally...a burger voucher is in the mail as i type!

Wow...so much inflation so quickly...two burgers..too much!

What did the Barfoot numbers say that Auckland property prices are down 4% from July to August yet QV say only down 1.1%. What is the difference in the measurement basis?

As I see it, with volumes so low, supply from people who need to sell (i.e. moving jobs, downsizing, had more kids, etc) is stacking up. Surely this means that at some stage prices will need to drop to clear this latent supply backlog?

How does this play out?

NZD rises to USD 0.85, exports collapse; then NZD falls to USD 0.35 on oil at $300 per barrel, followed by inflation and wage rises?

Things will not just stay as they are forever, that's for sure. Are we in the eye of the hurricane?

Just read an article which argues that the real price of oil ought to be  $US 10 / barrel currently !

[ Seeking Alpha : William Smead : " Should $10 a Barrel Be the Real Price of Oil ? " ]

A quiet reminder to all to not swear or use abusive language. We can make our points strongly without the rough stuff. We're a family show.

cheers

Bernard

and inflation is 2% per annum?

So in real terms 5% down in a year...in 6 years 30%....

Those exponential compounding 1 and 2 percent drops really add up over time.

Anonymous,

We welcome all commenters who have a case to make without abusive, defamatory or racist comments.

Your comment above is a great example of a clear point of view put across without any of the nasties mentioned above. We welcome your registration. The box on the right.

 

cheers

Bernard

Hurrah. The crowd cheers. A century up before lunch.

cheers

Bernard

Ah yes Bernard, I tried to be helpful. Perhaps I should get myself another nom de plume and post a really outrageous line of thought. Not sure I actually have the ability to do it even if it was allowed. It's an interesting thought though....

Dear Anonymous, Steven-orig2, Auckland agent, What ????, Zaphod the Flatulent, MichaelH, Ex Simpleton, annoying mouse, Rock Doc, Tarfoot & Bombson, Steve-o, the big kahuna, Prepared , CoDirector, JimboJones

Please register so you can comment after we turn off unregistered comments from this Sunday September 12.

A reminder to all that we are moving to registered comments from this Sunday. We welcome any registered commenters. We don't welcome commenters making abusive, defamatory or racist comments.

Registered commenters can edit their comments and more easily include links out. We won't be spamming people. The box to register is in the right hand column.

Here's more detail. http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/heres-why-wed-you-register-be-commente...

cheers

Bernard

I'm guessing the continued international reporting of Chch earthquake problems and aftershocks will cause a significant reduction in immigration to all of NZ + increased emigration.  

This could really reduce housing demand and accelerate the rate of house price declines - especially at the high end of the market propped up by wealthy immigrants.

People thinking about immigrating to anywhere in NZ could reconsider if they investigate for 5 minutes and find out Wellington earthquake risk is even worse than Christchurch + Auckland volcano risks etc.

Kiwis overseas are probably less likely to return now.

And I expect emigration to Oz will increase significantly (especially from Chch & Wellington)

Or will increased awareness of NZ internationally somehow increase the number of people who want to immigrate?

What you fail to understand TM is that those who do get work in aus will go and those who don't have work here will be trying to get work over there...and I am not certain of the rules but are there any to say someone getting the dole here may not be over there looking for work!...isn't it just a case of being back in time for the winz meeting....a quick flight!

The new system is already in place working in parallel.

Register the name you want and stick to it.

There will be a shake out and we'll see how it works.

We welcome your registration.

cheers

Bernard

OMG the endless whining.  Poor, pitiful, persecuted you.

Anyway, maybe this will put your mind at ease.  I'm registered.  But earlier today I tried to post by just typing 'Kakapo' in the slot because I couldn't be arsed signing in.  But it wouldn't let me use that name without logging in.  Once you've bagged a name, it's yours.

Stand back, it does amazing things to your perspective.

Clue: don't take 'investment' for granted.

that includes a return to BAU.

Something that the PI cultists need to realise is that what people want doesn't determine reality.  You can wish as hard as you like that prices will rise, fall, or stagnate, but it's all meaningless and fundamentals are what matter.

Bernard, can I please swear just this once?

Sicky B - that's not fundamentals - that's 'in your face obviouses'.

Like I said, perspective.

read this (I put it up the other day, but you obviously haven't) :

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/hubbert.htm

take a look at his dates - even the sublimely optimistic ones.

Then have a wee think about which of your fundamentals continues in light of it, and for how long.

I suggest that you have a position where the cards have to fall a certain way, and are looking at things in that light..

Some of us are not in a precarious position, because we did our homework first. From a no-vested-interest, no-bias start.

Interestingly (sorry) Bernard gets it right, but for what I would call a symptomatic reason, rather than a causal one.

In my humble, unbiased, non-racial, well-spoken opinion.

There's a big future for you in radio ads for budget used car lots.

In that case, there's a big future for him in yelling gibberish at random passers-by at bus stops.

Man, I have to have a go at expressing myself in this way.

THAT LEMUR THAT DIED IN THE EARTHQUAKE WASNT AN ACCIDENT IT WAS MURDERED BECAUSE IT KNEW TOO MUCH AND WAS GOING TO TELL ALL ABOUT SCF I KNOW BECAUSE IT PHONED ME AND TOLD ME EVERYTHING AND YES I SPEAK FLUENT LEMUR YOU BITTER RENTER LOSERS.

Yikes.  That was too easy.

No lack of capital, I see

Fyi ... Timber mills cutting jobs and predicting a slow down next year should help drop building costs in the medium term.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/features/4103931/Timber-firms-in-for-more-trimming

"But while export markets for sawn timber have been strong this year and there has been some bounce back in domestic sales, the signs for the next year or so are far from promising, although Saturday's big earthquake in Canterbury is predicted to provide a short-term boost.

......

Moutere Timber had stopped sending timber to Asia because there was no longer any money in it."

My cousin works for another major timber company in Nelson and they've also recently stopped exports to Asia due lack of demand.

Did you have some fingers crossed when you wrote that? If you didn't have some fingers crossed when you wrote that, it won't come true. You know that, right?

something is

I don't agree with Bernard's 30% prediction but good on him for making a prediction. No-one else in this country has the balls to do it. Plus its nice to promote debate.

I agree however that its tiresome to continually malign PIs on this website. Why is owning investment property being greedy? I don't see how its different to any other business activity, and the personal attacks stink of jealosy to me.

And I don't see why a higher proportion of home-ownership is good for the country. Does it make NZ more competitive, does it drive productivity? No. So please can someone explain why its good. In most other countries the home-ownership rate is much lower, Switzerland for example. Does it matter if people occupy freehold or leasehold? Is there a correlation with happiness? 

I know the answer to that one.

I lived in a sattelite village, where everyone owned. They all had a pride in the place, and a vested interest (not just $) in it's well-being.

Then some bought a second house in the village, as a renter. The types who rented had no such community allegiance, things started to go missing, crime news started mentioning those convicted as 'of the village'.

The school started to have to put resources into 'at risk' kids.

And so on.

If you don't give folk a piece of the cake, you can hardly be surprised if they de-ice yours.

You haven't read  - or at least you haven't read and understood - what I've been on about here for some time.

You have to redefine work.

This planet is being chewed into at 3 times (3x) the sustainable rate. So just making more people do something which will speed that process up is nothing short of socially criminal.

You then have to ask: "what is sustainable work', and go for that.

Ubfortunately, having done that, you've just relegated half the current workforce to the scrap-heap.

There is an interesting flip-side, though - coming soon to a planet/nation/city/town near you. It's this:  If we use fossil energy to the equivalent of having 300 (some say 1000) slaves apiece, then shortly we can expect to be working very much harder. It should put paid to the coming obesity epidemic, the type2 diabetes epidemic, and perhaps tire folk out before retirement age!

Not sure what you mean about attitudes here - I suspect we are a diverse and uncategorisable lot.

There are correlations between ownership and positive social outcomes, like a low level of underage crime, good educational results etc.  But it could be a big call to say that ownership is a direct causative factor.  It's probably more likely that home ownership is a proxy for stability, and that the benefits only accrue where people tend to stay in one house long-term, so that they get to know the neighbours, the kids aren't always being uprooted and having to go through stressful school changes etc.  In a situation where buying, selling and moving are on a shorter time-frame, the statistical benefits of owning over renting would disappear. 

fair comments, both.

I promised myself I wouldn't come here......now look what you made me do.....are you not just sick to your stomach talking about it......

Bernard's right your all going to ...........die.!....haha ha ha ha HA HA Ha...wheeze.ha heh.

Happy day to All  :<)

My friend, you and I should hook up - I'll bring the KY. I love a fellow man who feels as passionately about property investing as I do!

come again?

Don't mind if I do. And hey, PI fantasies are much more pleasurable than the golden shower we've taken from the finance companies, and the recent bailout of SCF.

I 'm not sure that is what I said nony....

No dishonour in that......and I was not saying good on Bernard......

What I did say if you were not shouting at me at the time...was that he said we are all going to die........myself included.

Of course I extracted that from an unrelated topic and thought I would bring it up here as a new conversation starter.

I hope that clears thing up a bit.

 Once again Happy day to All :<)

I can assure you I'd be gentle and considerate. Unless you'd rather play something a little more risque, that is. I could dress up as Alan Bollard, say, imposing a large interest rate rise on you...! Or you could be a landlord, and I can't quite make rent this week. The offer is open.

LOL

Anon who writes in CAPS. Why on earth would you think that being a journalist has responsibilities? How weird. Bernard's running a business, and like anyone else (including PIs), he wants his business to be successful.

Of course it's in Bernard's interests to attract attention to this website, so good on him. I find it astounding that naive people on this website believe in geniune altruism, when its ingained in human nature to be selfish.

Posters on this site who say they want the property market to crash so that "their sons and daughters" can afford a house in my opinion are more likely to represent that segment of society that missed out on the last housing boom...to their ongoing regret.

but - many of them clearly outclass you in the footwear department.

Looks like all you whingers very wrong.  You miss out on big profits and u will miss out again. Serves you right. Losers do the complaining. Winners get  the profits. The market has big confidence in property.

Building activity increases again
 
                           
     Press Release Source: NZPA   On Thursday 9 September 2010, 13:08 NZST
 

All building work rose for the third consecutive quarter, up 8.2 percent in the June quarter, after the removal of seasonal effects, Statistics New Zealand says.
 

For the third consecutive time, residential building volumes rose 10.8 percent in the three months to June, following a rise of 2.6 percent in March quarter.
 

http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/Building-activity-increases-=0

Earthquake bad for some but lucky for others. Big building boom coming.

Whingers will miss out again.

Proof Bollard is full of shit! Anyone else whatch Q&A on sunday?

 

http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news/q-interview-alan-bollard-3760907/video

No argument from me on that

"Tonight...tonight on...tonight on Holmes we take a look...tonight...we take a look at a situation, here, tonight, on Holmes...we take a look at a situation developing, tonight, we look at it as it unfolds out there, here on Holmes, well, not here, but out there, somewhere, and we go live to the, um, the scene, we go live to it, tonight, and see if we can understand what it is all about...so stay with us, here at Holmes as we, um, as we take a look tonight, tonight...um...tonight we take a look at the situation, a strange situation you'll agree, I'm sure, when we look at it, um, tonight, on Holmes...so don't go away, we'll be back to look at it tonight, to look at this strange, um, developing, um, situation out there, out there in one of our beautiful cities, um, and we'll take a look at this, tonight, here on Holmes...um, a remarkable situation it is, that is, um, unfolding tonight...tonight we, um, will be taking a closer look um..."

And his last remaining viewer screams "GET ON WITH IT, YOU GIBBERING BLOODY HALFWIT!", before throwing an antique ashtray through the screen and storming off to the pub...only to discover when he gets there that Holmes is on the giant plasma screen above the pool table, babbling like the empty-headed marmot that he is...tonight on, um on Holmes. Tonight. On Holmes.

this is so funny...rubber hose time for the CAPLOCKER!

I also think bernard deserves accolades for providing this site and his tireless efforts on radio,tv and print.

i think we should name a dog after him...hmm, Saint Bernard?

has a certain ring to it...doncha thunk?

Over 2300 homes reported uninhabitable in Canterbury http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/canterbury-earthquake/4114564/2300-homes-unfit-for-occupation.

As for what it'll do to values...My friend reckons some suburbs which have been proven relatively "earthquake-proof" will see house values go up while others that have been completely damaged will be worth nothing. Personnally I wouldn't rebuild in the same spot if my house had been damaged. Heck, I'm not even sure I want to stay here (might change once we can finally get one undisturbed night again)!

well i still think the only thing Bernard is good at picking is his nose, however he is a marvel at web traffic etc and got a good boot into SCF which was fully deserved

and i don't really think the doomsters have control of this site, rather the PI's etc have got feed up with showing ways to make property work and realised there is not point if the reception one gets is not just guarded (understandable) but hostile. some get it some don't so for some of us time is better spent quietly looking after themselves

cashflow can get tight, which is why allowances are made for such from the get go.

when the shit isn't hitting the fan, and dragging things towards the bottom line it's all happy days, and i admit stress is right up there when there are several vacancies in my portfolio, but it was designed to survive

and the great thing is now my children will both be at school soon, and then i will be re-entering the real estate market to help people both buy and sell homes in the Hamilton area

it can be taken for granted that i would not be re-entering the real estate profession if i thought it was all going to tank from here

steady as she goes - it was crazy when things rocketed to the new plateau, and it will jiggle along a bit more in times to come, but as long as it aint falling down, we all like a roof over our heads...

President of Property,

I'm sticking with my prediction of a 15% fall in my nose before the end of 2011...

cheers ;)

Bernard

what will precipitate that fall between now and then, Bernard?

do you mean gradual but steady decline or do you see some specific factors that will speed up the process to a new mean average by the end of 2011?

and are your predictions nationwide or do you have thoughts on %'s for different regions?

there's some burger vouchers in  it for you and the family if you come up with some salient answers....

suck on this ,bitches !

 

Banks Face 50% Increase In Tier 1 Capital Requirements

International banking regulators, known as the Basel Committee, are expected to raise the minimum Tier 1 capital ratio to 6 percent (from 4 percent) according to the BdB banking association in Germany. Many leading banks already hold Tier 1 capital in excess of 6 percent, but others would be forced to raise fresh capital. The BdB, for instance, estimates that German banks alone need at least €105 billion in fresh capital to meet the new requirements (Reuters). The revised standards are likely to be phased in over several years, but shrinking credit could spark a new deflationary spiral. 

get some haemmheroid cream , anon above...your bum is on fire!

from too much idle chat.....................

the Landlords Assoc are running a property investors survey sponsored by ANZ bank.

care to have a play with the PI's?

http://survey.cbrak.co.nz/scripts/dubinterviewer.dll/Frames?Quest=218&QW6357=772334&Resp=219148537