By Alex Tarrant
The upward trend in Kiwis leaving to live permanently overseas continued in November, with 25% more permanent departures from New Zealand than a year ago, figures released today by Statistics New Zealand show.
The figures come against a backdrop of improving economic conditions in Australia, led by growing commodity demand from China, compared to a stalled economic recovery in New Zealand and weakening prospects for strong growth in 2011.
Stats NZ’s trend series for monthly permanent departures of people from New Zealand showed a steady rise from 5,180 in November 2009 to 6,450 in November 2010.
Unadjusted figures show there were 2,873 departures of people to live permanently or long term in Australia from New Zealand in November, with 2,496 of these New Zealand citizens. That works out at around 83 leaving each day. The overall figure was down from just over 3,000 in October, although was up 41% from 2,034 in November 2009.
Kiwis leaving for Australia, voting with feet and air tickets
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted figures for net permanent and long-term migration to New Zealand showed an influx of 630 in November, down from a revised 640 in October (revised from 680). This was slightly below economist expectations, with ANZ expecting net inflow of about 770 and Westpac expecting about 700.
The lower than expected figures could be further bad news for the housing market, which had started to show signs of stabilisation in recent weeks.
Unadjusted permanent arrivals outnumbered departures by 1,410 in November, down from 2,501 the same month a year ago, Stats NZ said.
“The main contributor to the decrease was 900 more departures by New Zealand citizens – 800 of these were to Australia,” Stats NZ said in a media release.
Last month Prime Minister John Key said he was not worried with figures showing and increase in the amount of Kiwis leaving, and he did not think those doing so were 'voting with their feet'.
Most from India
In the year to November 2010 there was a net inflow of 11,519 permanent migrants to New Zealand. This was down from 20,021 in the year to November 2009, but up from 3,569 in the year to November 2008.
“In the November 2010 year, the highest net inflow of migrants was from India (6,300),” Stats NZ said. In the past most permanent and long term migrants from India have been on student visas.
“This surpassed the net inflow from the United Kingdom, which dropped from 9,200 in the November 2009 year to 5,400 in the November 2010 year,” Stats NZ said.
“The net PLT outflow to Australia was 20,100 in the November 2010 year, just above the outflow in the November 2009 year (19,500), but still well below the outflow in the November 2008 year (35,300). The latest net outflow saw 35,800 departures to Australia offset by 15,800 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens,” Stats NZ said.
Economist reaction
ASB economist Jane Turner said ASB expect permanent departure to continue to lift as Australian employment growth continued to outperform labour market conditions in New Zealand.
"This will see the current pace of annual inflow ease from around 12,000 per annum in recent months to around 5,000 to 6,000 per annum," Turner said.
"Slowing net migration is factor contributing to weak demand for new housing and weak retail spending growth. We expect that net migration will remain subdued for the time being and a key factor in household sector being less of a driver of growth in the current economic recovery. The RBNZ remains concerned about the weakness in housing market activity and we expect that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged until June 2011," she said.
Employment confidence up, but jobs seen harder to get
The migration figures came on the same day as the Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index showed employment confidence rose slightly to 103.5 in the December quarter from 102.6 in September, although levels were still below December 2009 (104.3). An index figure over 100 suggests more optimists than pessimists.
However, the major issue for employees and those seeking work "in the here and now" was job availability, with a net 63.4% of respondents to the latest survey saying jobs were hard to get, up from 61.3% in September, Westpac senior economist Donna Purdue said.
“We find it hard to reconcile the overwhelmingly negative response to this question with the positive developments in the labour market over the past year, but the message is clear: the jobs market remains tough, and possibly even tougher than we thought heading into 2011,” Purdue said.
(Updates with Westpac employment confidence, ASB reaction)
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