By Alex Tarrant
The upward trend in Kiwis leaving to live permanently overseas continued in November, with 25% more permanent departures from New Zealand than a year ago, figures released today by Statistics New Zealand show.
The figures come against a backdrop of improving economic conditions in Australia, led by growing commodity demand from China, compared to a stalled economic recovery in New Zealand and weakening prospects for strong growth in 2011.
Stats NZ’s trend series for monthly permanent departures of people from New Zealand showed a steady rise from 5,180 in November 2009 to 6,450 in November 2010.
Unadjusted figures show there were 2,873 departures of people to live permanently or long term in Australia from New Zealand in November, with 2,496 of these New Zealand citizens. That works out at around 83 leaving each day. The overall figure was down from just over 3,000 in October, although was up 41% from 2,034 in November 2009.
Kiwis leaving for Australia, voting with feet and air tickets
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted figures for net permanent and long-term migration to New Zealand showed an influx of 630 in November, down from a revised 640 in October (revised from 680). This was slightly below economist expectations, with ANZ expecting net inflow of about 770 and Westpac expecting about 700.
The lower than expected figures could be further bad news for the housing market, which had started to show signs of stabilisation in recent weeks.
Unadjusted permanent arrivals outnumbered departures by 1,410 in November, down from 2,501 the same month a year ago, Stats NZ said.
“The main contributor to the decrease was 900 more departures by New Zealand citizens – 800 of these were to Australia,” Stats NZ said in a media release.
Last month Prime Minister John Key said he was not worried with figures showing and increase in the amount of Kiwis leaving, and he did not think those doing so were 'voting with their feet'.
Most from India
In the year to November 2010 there was a net inflow of 11,519 permanent migrants to New Zealand. This was down from 20,021 in the year to November 2009, but up from 3,569 in the year to November 2008.
“In the November 2010 year, the highest net inflow of migrants was from India (6,300),” Stats NZ said. In the past most permanent and long term migrants from India have been on student visas.
“This surpassed the net inflow from the United Kingdom, which dropped from 9,200 in the November 2009 year to 5,400 in the November 2010 year,” Stats NZ said.
“The net PLT outflow to Australia was 20,100 in the November 2010 year, just above the outflow in the November 2009 year (19,500), but still well below the outflow in the November 2008 year (35,300). The latest net outflow saw 35,800 departures to Australia offset by 15,800 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens,” Stats NZ said.
Economist reaction
ASB economist Jane Turner said ASB expect permanent departure to continue to lift as Australian employment growth continued to outperform labour market conditions in New Zealand.
"This will see the current pace of annual inflow ease from around 12,000 per annum in recent months to around 5,000 to 6,000 per annum," Turner said.
"Slowing net migration is factor contributing to weak demand for new housing and weak retail spending growth. We expect that net migration will remain subdued for the time being and a key factor in household sector being less of a driver of growth in the current economic recovery. The RBNZ remains concerned about the weakness in housing market activity and we expect that the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged until June 2011," she said.
Employment confidence up, but jobs seen harder to get
The migration figures came on the same day as the Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index showed employment confidence rose slightly to 103.5 in the December quarter from 102.6 in September, although levels were still below December 2009 (104.3). An index figure over 100 suggests more optimists than pessimists.
However, the major issue for employees and those seeking work "in the here and now" was job availability, with a net 63.4% of respondents to the latest survey saying jobs were hard to get, up from 61.3% in September, Westpac senior economist Donna Purdue said.
“We find it hard to reconcile the overwhelmingly negative response to this question with the positive developments in the labour market over the past year, but the message is clear: the jobs market remains tough, and possibly even tougher than we thought heading into 2011,” Purdue said.
(Updates with Westpac employment confidence, ASB reaction)
Net long term migration
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63 Comments
How is this breaking news? Something that happens every single month - people leaving. It is clearly trying to imply something, that we are facing net outword migration, which is not true, given net PLT migration of 11,500 has been seen over the last 12 months, which is about smack on the long term average.
Hickey - BREAKING NEWS! Long term average net migration levels continue! WOW!
It's where it's trending towards. Do u look at stock price averages over last 12 months and try figure out where the price is going? Ofcourse not.
11k down from over 20k and asb predict will fall further to around 6k.
Kiwis leaving there 3 bedroom stand alone houses being replaced by asains who are happy to rent cheap appartments for which there are still an oversupply of in Auckland.
The news is significant thanks for reporting I most likely would have missed the data otherwise
ASB reaction in there. These figures aren't too good for the housing market.
Key said last month he didn't think people were voting with their feet, yet when in opposition National attacked the Clark government on the number of people leaving to Aus.
Look at the second tab on the chart above. From the election in Nov 08 until April the rate of people leaving to Aus slowed. Now it has definately turned.
Cheers
Alex
Exporting the most valuable skilled, educated young Kiwis and importing most everything in the Billions. PM you should tell your ministers Joyce/ Brownlee to reverse the trend. As I many times explained there are plenty of options to increase production.
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Key said last month he didn't think people were voting with their feet, yet when in opposition National attacked the Clark government on the number of people leaving to Aus.
SK, I reckon NZ could do with a few more critical thinkers like Alex and Bernard instead of all the sunshine delusionals, property sprukers, finance husslers and political spinners that have decimated the economy. These guys at least bring some clarity to a media that has been largely co-opted into vested interest agendas and inane commentary.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/small-business/4476302/The-benefits-of-…
"The researchers discovered that 'negative' people communicate better, think more clearly, make fewer mistakes, are less gullible, and are better at decision-making. The reason? Negative people have enhanced "information-processing strategies", which means they use the critical part of their brain more successfully than cheerful people."
Negative is the new positive.........
It's the trend that's making the news not the current yearly figures which contain last 12 months.
Interesting to think about Indians also. You think they are going to mind apartment living more or less than the kiwis that they are replacing?
The whole housing shortage arguement ignores the fact that apartment vacancies in aucks are still very high, way higher than any major aussy city and similar to USA.
Bernard, can you get any figures on total rental vacancies? I think this will tell a more accurate story of the housing shortage, which for mine is just another myth that ignores the number of retirement villages and appartments that are still springing up.
Simon, I think Rodney Dickens, who is an expert on this, estimated that around 1 in 10 NZ homes are "investment" properties, and around 1 in 10 of those, is vacant. He suggested that interested people could take a walk around any neighbourhood and observe that around 1 in 100 homes is empty. I think he is right.
Apparently there are no sources of reliable statistics on this.
There was a disturbing article in an Australian "Quadrant" Magazine a year or so ago, by James Allan, a Kiwi Professor of Law who also writes good articles for "The Australian". The Quadrant article very unfortunately is not online.
It is on the subject of “why” Allan was now going for Australian citizenship. The grittiest bit was, that he thought Australia and NZ were on political trajectories so different that he doubted that the current arrangements re Kiwis living and working there, would stand the strain for much longer. He wanted to be allowed to stay, when the bar got put up.
Hi all,
Whether half empty or half full, there's not much in the glass and we still don't know what what way the flow's going. At the moment what we do know is there is an increasing outflow of Kiwis to Australia.
Of that net inflow of 11,500 more than half were from India - they are mostly students. The numbers from the UK (more likely to be skilled workers) fell by almost half.
Going through the release, there was also a net inflow of 3,600 from China. Again, a lot will be students.
Sure it's great having foreign students studying here and paying really high fees to help fund our universities. But then what? Demand for skilled and educated workers back in their own countries is rising rapidly.
I guess they tenant the tiny flats in Queen Street apartment blocks that Kiwis view as way too small. Great. Thank God for that.
I know a guy who works on a dairy farm adding to NZ's export earnings etc, and is a good worker/mechanic. He can get more than twice what he earns here by going to Aus and driving a truck around a mine without needing any extra training or qualifications. His mate's already there and says his boss would love to have him.
He doesn't have a uni degree - he doesn't need one.
All he needs is a plane ticket. He's currently renewing his passport.
The Aussie mine industry is so hot right now that they've started tying to poach all the Pike River miners. The Greymouth Mayor is quite rightly extremely concerned about this and is trying to put the pressure on the govt to do something. 'Don't worry,' Brownlie says, 'We'll have a think and get back to you in a couple of months.'
In a couple of months they'll be gone.
Everyone's saying we're having an export-led recovery. However export volumes aren't rising, only prices are. What happens if they drop? We don't even have increased capacity to rely on.
What we are exporting in greater volumes are productive workers - the people who would be working on our farms or in our manufacturing sector if volumes were rising. We are replacing them with foreign students, inflating our service sector.
If we want to be a services hub then so be it. But right now yes, the glass is half empty.
Cheers
Alex
Alex that is all good but keep that sentiment to the appropriate and relevant articles. Don't let what you believe creep into and shade every article you do about every subject. Fact is - net PLT is inward and at long term average levels. That is the headline. It doesn't have to be sensation or jive with whatever bias you are wanting to illustrate.
Stats NZ's comments on that:
"The net PLT migration gain of 11,500 in the November 2010 year was similar to the annual average gain for the December years 1990-2009 (11,900). Net PLT migration varied substantially within this 20-year period. The net gain peaked at 30,200 in the April 1996 year and again at 42,500 in the May 2003 year. Net outflows were experienced during most of 1998-2991, with the largest a net loss of 13,200 people in the February 2001 year."
If we had written a headline and a story saying 'Net inward migration in year to Nov 2010 at 20 year average for December years which varied a lot'...
...is that as newsworthy as reporting Kiwis are again leaving in growing numbers to Australia?
What is more newsworthy? That two numbers were almost the same as each other, or that Kiwis are buggering off because the economy here isn't as good as what we've been told it would be like by now?
yes your right , applies to everyone but really P's me off when my local takeway shop keeps chaging hands for that exact reason .
Just when you think you finally found good fried rice the joker buggers off to Oz and sells the shop to his brother in law , its just not fair !
Hi Alex and thanks
Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think these stats will show what I am asking , as once a immigrant gains residency then they would be classed as a NZ citizen departing on a NZ passport wouldn't they ?
Is there any stats that show long term departures from NZ based on country of birth
I think the aussys recognize this problem and this is why in some political corners they are calling for a tightening up on or even abolishment of the easy access into Australia for NZ Citizen's due to people using NZ as a backdoor into Aus
This is a widely held viewpoint over there and it is also not good for NZ for the obvious reasons
Ah thanks for that Alex. I understand where you are coming from now. Just trying to get a sensational story. I'm pleased to see you admit it freely. No wonder that this sites internet traffic is way down from where it was early this year (according to google trends for websites). While your hardcore fans who spend every minute on this website flamming absolutely everything normal casual readers like me come back less, and less, and less because we arent interested in disengensious, sensational articles that pretend to be 'financial journalism'. You guys truely are the fox news of NZ.
So are you saying that it's not news that an increasing amount of Kiwis are leaving for Aus?
Are you saying it is more important to tell people that this November year was similar to the average for the last 20 December years, rather than that there is an emerging trend of New Zealanders leaving this country because there has been a poor economic recovery and it is better elsewhere?
I think if you want to tell a story about disparate economic performance across the Tasman you should do that. But I think when you write a story about net PLT migration you probably are better talking about the core numbers accurately. Every story you write doesn’t have to have an agenda – I wish you could just talk about the facts and trends without trying to influence the perception on everything. Interestingly, using your logic, New Zealand must be performing a heck of a lot better on a net basis relative to the rest of the world given we have just recorded inward ~12,000 migrants over the last 12 months. And when I look at Bernard's little graph on the front page of interest.co.nz I see what looks like a peak in Kiwi outward migration to AU, and we appear to be coming down from that. yes up on a YoY basis, but as any economist or good analyst will tell you it is the run rate that matters.
When you do write your article on AU/NZ performance you will have plenty of things to write about and fairly so. I also think it would be interesting when you do your article that we have observed in the last 5 weeks a rapid deterioration in Australian retail sales. I can refer you to the most recent Macquare broker report re: Pumpkin Patch, where it appears (only in the last month) that NZ sales are holding up better than AU sales. None the less AU has a much more robust economy but the shine is coming off.
I think a major problem with interest.co.nz articles and analysis is you only focus on YoY movements, and never what is happening to the underlying fundamental run rates.
Keyser, this is a good debate and I'm sure one we're not going to budge ground on :)
You want a story based on underlying trends.The story is based on Stats NZ's underlying trend series for permanent departures from NZ. It is going up. It has gone up steadily month by month all year. The biggest destination is Australia.
You say we should not have an agenda. By this I take it you mean we should not take an angle for the story - that we should just put up the numbers and that's it.
But should we or should we not try and look beneath the figures to try and determine why they are behaving like they are? If you don't like having me say there is a disparity between NZ and Aus, then take it from Jane Turner, who's the ASB economist quoted above.
I put this into reported speech in the article, but here is what she wrote:
"With Australian employment growth continuing to outperform labour market conditions in NZ, we expect departures will continue to lift."
Then you say NZ must be doing a heck of a lot better on a net basis than the rest of the world because we have inward net migration. Yes, you are right. Unemployment in England is almost 8%. Unemployment in the US is almost 10%. Unemployment in the OECD averages about 8.5%. It's 6.4% here.
So why are more Kiwis leaving to live permanently in Aus again? Because things are better there than here.
And yes, the shine may come off in Australia, unemployment rises and the wage gap between NZ and Aus narrows. When that time comes, should we just report that happening, or should we look to see what might happen due to unemployment there rising etc (ie take an angle). I would say if that happens then the flow of Kiwis to Aus would slow.
This would then give need for policy decisions from the government for how to do deal with fewer people leaving = more jobs needed here, or whether it would have to change its immigration policy.
By looking at the overall annual number and its connection to that average you wanted me to have focussed the story on, it would seem like nothing has changed this year compared to the average of the last 20 years. A lot has happened over those last 20 years that have needed policy changes in order to deal with them.
And has nothing happened this year? One thing that has happened is the number of people leaving NZ permanently is growing.
We haven't just had 20 years of steady inflows of 12,000. Some years have had huge inflows, some years have had considerable outflows. Policy has needed to be changed to deal with these fluctuations.
What would happen if we just based policy decisions on 20 year averages all the time?
Cheers
Alex
alex--re your mining comment--all that glitters is not gold[or coal in this case] true old mate may double his wage,s but he,s going to be paying at least $750 p/week to rent a house---if he can find one---work shifts--7-14 days on 7 off--12 hr days--he will be drug+alcohol tested at the start of every days work--zero tolerance-2 failures and you,re gone--no more than three beers after work is the rule--the fly in/out camps are worse--nothing to do except work--all good if you,re a young single guy/girl--a lot of people don,t cope with the regimentation/ isolation---horse,s for courses of course---re the australian economy--i think that it,s going to come a bit of a gutser in the new year [march/april] the only thing keeping the building industry afloat at present is the federal govt school building program--this finishes in february--after which several hundred thousand building workers are going to be looking for something to do--myself included--cheers pw
This is from the Stats NZ release:
"Compared with the November 2009 year, fewer migrants arrived on the following visa types: work (down 2,400), residence (down 800), and visitor (down 600) visas; more migrants arrived on student visas (up 600)."
Guess who buys the houses and guess who spends more money when they're living here.
Increased brain drain to aussy just got a mention on tv3 news also so are they in on the conspiracy too keyser??
You are the only one I can see who is trying to miss interpret raw data trying to say it shows nothing important.
What's the story u buy to many properties expecting free money from cap gains yet finding yourself out of pocket as prices fall? U r sounding a bit stressed about things, hope it all works out ok for ya..
FYI......http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_HOTPNov10.aspx
This link will open to where you can access 10 years of net migration stats and much more....for anybody who actually wants to look it up.
go to line international travel and Migration November 2010 tables (9)sheets
No worries....honestly....it's all in the bag....a little export bonanza here and discovering a few billion barrels of oil there.....consumers splurging on debt again......twenty years of dollar debasement.....a bit of spin and BS .....hey presto a fiscal surplus just in time to enter the second half of the 21st century!..............what's all the fuss about?.
New Zealandhas the worst record among the developed nations for retaining its skilled workers, with nearly a quarter of them having left the country, a World Bank study has revealed.
The country's brain drain is 10 times larger than that of neighbouring Australia where only 2.5 per cent of graduates live outside their homeland.
It is calculated that for every skilled worker that leaves, the government loses US$10,000 through foregone taxes and education and healthcare costs.
Highly-skilled Kiwi migrants earn an average US$116,000, compared to an average US$65,000 New Zealand salary.
Last sentence really says it all – there is also the job opportunity factor.
Yes they come, they go, NZers are highly transient.
What are the figures on how many return to NZ eventually?
Of my university group of friends nearly all have have spent a number of years overseas and all have since returned - except one who will return when it's kiddie time.
Many of my friends and aquantiances still live overseas but they have plans to return....par for the course. However, we all don't rule out going away for work again. Same applies to my friends from other countries...the exception may be South Africa. I'm not counting those doing an OE piss drinking trip though.
Can we presume that those from Asia who arrive as students, often with marginal language levels and then stay on after being accepted for residence become useful to our workforce needs/skills?
I can see the benefits from highly skilled immigrants from any source (language skills assumed) but almost all graduates are still a net drain for some period after qualifying and then their skills become highly marketable elsewhere.
For comparison running an ethnic food outlet is not a need while being a hospital surgeon is where we have a shortage which is precisely the type of skill with international mobility.
Recently there was an interview on TV in Melbourne of a resident doctor from Invercargil, flying in to a regional Victorian hospital for the weekend, doing A&E, earning AUD $5000 for a weekends work and flying out. $20k per month. 8 days work, a bit of travel time.
Look at me, 5 children. Eldest studies in California, the next just got a fantastic job in London, the third leaves as soon as she finishes Uni, wants to work in the UK. We are looking at a residence in Europe to be closer to our children, we all have EU passports. Im a Kiwi farmer, my children have been brought up outside, riding horses and diving at the beach and they are still all heading north.
It's not surprising though, is it?
Farmers are the wealthiest group in NZ but even they're pretty low-rent compared to the wealth in real countries.
Your farm kids have been bought up to believe that a) money is all that matters and b) all money should belong to Kiwi farmers, so when they look OS and see all the real money over there, that's where they go.
It's so simple!
Afraid not, my eldest works for a christian charity in the USA, my second is very musical and is working as a sound engineer, my 3rd also does charity work. My wife does volunteer work every friday in a local school. My car has 390k on the clock, we live a very modest existence. I taught my children to enjoy the things that are free, and its not what you need thats important but what you dont need, that leads to happiness. My children have had a great upbringing but not a rich one. My wife and I went to a 21st at the weekend all the young adults were completely drunk, speechs were about who they shagged and how drunk they got. Not my wifes background, my children dont drink, I however try and do my bit for the wine industry and help my scottish friends out a bit in the winter.
I can relate to what you are saying Aj. Our family also has EU passports. Last several years all the kids have been living overseas. One of them has met the person of their dreams and is now domiciled in their spouses home country. However they are seriously considering relocating to NZ for the sake of their children. We have spent a significant amount of time each year OS - being with the kids and also working so that we can spend more time with them and in some cases more time with the grandchildren. It's been like a 2nd chance middle aged OE for us and we have loved it. The interesting thing is that one of the kids has now returned back home to go farming with a migrant partner in tow. The youngest one tells us they are 'living the dream' and will return when they find a partner - which doesn't look like any time soon. They have also said that they have noticed how much harder their kiwi/Aussie mates without EU passports are finding it to stay OS once their work permits run out-even if employers were willing to sponsor them. Our children have more options having EU passports. :-)
I have to disagree with some of the negative comments about this article. Sure the long term average Net figure is relatively unchanged, but the 'churn' is increasing significantly. So we ramp up the number of new arrivals to replace the increased number of departures. This gives us a 'business as usual' Net migration figure, but it is clearly indicative of a systemic problem. One that Alex is alluding to, and something we should not ignore.
Sounds like we are in the same boat CO. My children tell me the same thing a EU passport has opened a lot of doors. ( cost me $1200)They find the class system in the UK a bit challenging, My wife and I are from opposite sides of the fence. The next problem is going to be the grandparents getting a bit old and needing some care. lucky for me they live in a great part of the world and I have lots of friends around them.
Malarkey, I've got a shed full of ewes and they are big, wont a days crutching, I hate doing it on my own?
This is not surprising. Oz is only 3.5 hours away, many of our friends have moved from SI to OZ and it is no big deal, we go on holiday over there more than we would ever travel to the NI. If you were skilled and getting paid more then good on you, go and earn more, my wife and I did it (Europe), but came back to NZ to start a family and for lifestyle, but if our situation ever changed and we needed to move, then we would go to OZ hands down first before we moved to any of the NI cities, as at the end of the day most of us just thing that Australia is really just an extension of the kiwi lifestyle and not that different.
Kiwis travel and like to travel ,most of us have done our OE and NZ seems just to smalll to come back to after you have experienced that. Many do come back and then after a year or two, go over the ditch.
It does'nt, thats why you need to have your own funds for retirement as I said before in 15 years time there won't be a lot to dish around. NZ will have not only have a aging population but have a large unskilled population as well (relying on welfare system no doubt) which put huge pressue on country. All the skilled young professionals will go offshore (to pay off the loans) and many to Australia (unless it has a major meltdown- but if that goes so does NZ), as at the end of the day Australia is also a great country to bring up kids , good education system and prospects for your children's future.
It should be a worry for the government as like I said moving from say CHC to AKL you may as well move from CHC or (AKL) to MEL or BRI, SYD.
Ever since the late eighties goverments have tried to hide youth unemployment by keeping them in the education system. The graduate unemployment that should have resulted was avoided in three main ways. First, a large number of nonsensical nonjobs were created in the public sector (or in the private sector subsidised by the taxpayer). Second, graduate immigration was tacitly encouraged (for a long while the universities seemed to be little more than a foreign aid scheme for the City of London). Third, inevitable credential creep saw graduates having to settle for jobs that their parents could have got with only a couple of years high school.
As long as our government ministers are allocating infrastructure orders (real production) to foreign companies and not supporting NZcompanies, youth unemployment, unskilled jobs etc. will remain a problem.
Mismanagement of our economy by ministers = increasing taxpayers costs – HA !
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