90 seconds at 9 am: Volatility

90 seconds at 9 am: Factory growth in US and EU; US new home sales strong; Caterpillar disappoints; RBNZ announcement soon; NZ$1 = US$0.793 TWI = 75.1

25th Jul 13, 8:20am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of volatility.

US PMI's came in considerably above expectations this morning, at 53.2, a strong expansion from what was already one of the world's best. Ford and Boeing both reported great results and an improving outlook. Apple also beat expectations. All this is in sharp contrast to yesterday's weak Chinese PMI contraction.

Euro-area manufacturing also unexpectedly expanded in July for the first time in two years, led by Germany, adding to signs the currency bloc’s economy is emerging from their record-long recession.

Reversing the trend of yesterday's news that existing home sales volumes grew less than expected, sales of new American homes rose in June to the highest level in five years, pointing to gains in residential construction that will support the economic expansion in the second half of the year.

It certainly wasn't all good news in data out overnight. Equipment maker Caterpillar reported very disappointing results. They blamed declining demand from the mining industry and equipment dealers using less inventory.

Sales from Australia were down significantly, and this inevitably raises questions about the effects of lower economic growth in China.

Markets had factored in the 'good' earnings reports, but hadn't understood the implications for the Caterpillar result. And this is why Wall Street is lower today, down from a record high overnight. Gold and oil are also down.

Soon the RBNZ will announce the results of its OCR review. No change is expected, but we will be watching for signals on LVR speed limits and interest rate tracks. Join Bernard Hickey at 9am for the most comprehensive analysis.

The NZ dollar starts today lower at 79.3 USc, 86.6 AUc, and the TWI is at 75.1.

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7 Comments

by andyh | 25th Jul 13, 8:59am 1374699548

Latest paper on economic cost of global warming, summary:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jul/24/arctic-thawing-permaf…

and original article from Nature:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v499/n7459/pdf/499401a.pdf

by antonymouse | 25th Jul 13, 1:25pm 1374715531

Andyh

Oh, for goodness sake, don’t be like Chicken Little and get some balance.

You know, or should by now know, that the Guardian, BBC and most of the MSM always are proponents of the global warming hype.

To make your life a little less anxious read these:

Doomed Arctic Has The Most Ice In Five Years – And Below Normal Temperatures:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/03/02/doomed-arctic-has-the-most-ice-in-five-years/

2013 Global Warming Update:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/18/2013-global-warming-update/

North Pole Temperatures Have Been below Normal Every Day For The Past Three Months:

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/03/north-pole-temperatures-have-been-below-normal-every-day-for-the-past-three-months/

Have a cuppa while you read these and relax. The sky isn’t falling down.

by andyh | 25th Jul 13, 2:16pm 1374718617

Strange (but oh so typical) that your source should ignore the latest sea ice coverage data:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

I wonder what the next line of denial will be once the Arctic is indeed ice free in summer?

by antonymouse | 25th Jul 13, 4:31pm 1374726703

How about the latest temperature recordings from Denmark’s Centre for Ocean and Ice, they show that the mean temps for the Northern summer are below average.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

I rather trust the Danes than NASA.

And so do some of NASA’s own scientists, check out their website:

http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/

The Science is not settled:

http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/SummaryPrelimReport.html

by andyh | 25th Jul 13, 11:01am 1374706882

Charlie Munger (the Berkshire Hathaway bod) - US energy independence is a dumb idea (translates as we should use everyone else's oil first):

http://au.businessinsider.com/charlie-munger-on-energy-independence-201…

"Energy is one of the unique areas, he continued, where free-market policies end up causing more problems than they solve. In the case of energy, he said, governments should step in and encourage imports (it should be noted, of course, that this situation already partially exists, since exporting U.S. crude has been banned since the ’70s):

Why are the policy makers in both countries so stupid on this single issue because they are not stupid generally? I think that it’s partly the economists who have caused the problem. Because they have this theory that if people react in a free market that it’s much better than any type of government planning but there is a small class of problems where it’s better to think the things through in terms of the basic science and ignore these signals from the market.

Now if I’m right in this, there are a whole lot of lessons that logically follow:

(1) Foreign oil is your friend not your enemy; (2) You want to produce your own assets slow; … (3) The oil in the ground you’re not producing is a national treasure; … running out of hydrocarbons is like running out of civilisation. All this trade, all these drugs, fertilizers, fungicides, etc. … which China needs to eat with a population so much, they all come from hydrocarbons.''

by steven | 25th Jul 13, 11:11am 1374707473

A great piece and a westerner and American who sees it.

An (eventual) Isolationist in effect.

regards

by steven | 25th Jul 13, 11:22am 1374708173

There is also another piece on from this,

http://au.businessinsider.com/exxonenergy-independence-is-undesirable-2…

regards