90 seconds at 9 am: Global improvement

90 seconds at 9 am: China's trade improves; US retail and jobs improve; Rio can't sell aluminium business; oil down, gold up; NZ$1 = US$0.803 TWI = 75.3

9th Aug 13, 8:46am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of improving data in both China and the US.

Chinese exports and imports rose more than expected in July, a sharp recovery from the previous month. Both figures were well ahead of forecasts, pointing to a steadying of the country’s growth outlook.

The big jump in imports was especially notable as it is an indication that the Chinese economy is holding up well.

Hard on the heals of yesterday's Tiwai Point news is that Rio Tinto says it is not possible to sell its Pacific Aluminium business in the current market.

It is stuck with this aluminium business, which has five aluminium smelters, a bauxite mine and an alumina refinery in both Australia and New Zealand, and which was put up for sale in 2011.

Layoffs of American workers fell last week to their lowest since before the 2007-09 recession, a hopeful sign for the US economy. The four-week average of new claims for state jobless benefits dropped to 335,500, the US Labor Department said overnight.

The reading has not been that low since November 2007, just before the United States fell into its recession.

US July retail results were encouraging too.

Oil fell overnight to US$102/bbl although it has risen from there in late trade. US natural gas storage is ballooning and prices are falling. Gold is back over US$1,300/oz. Equities are up in late trade.

The latest US Treasury auction had yields fractionally higher. NZ swap rates show similar rises.

Today we are expecting the July benchmark REINZ data, which after yesterday's QV indications, is expected to show strong house price gains in Christchurch and Auckland and weak price growth in most of the rest of the country.

The NZ dollar's recovery rolls on and is now at 80.3 USc, 88.0 AUc, and the TWI is at 75.3 and back well above where it was before the Fonterra 'dirty pipe' issue.

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30 Comments

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 8:58am 1375995501

Oil down and gold up do not denote an improvement. The one suggest a lack of real work being done, the other suggests an increase in fear.

"Layoffs of American workers fell last week to their lowest since before the 2007-09 recession". I guess you could call that "jobs improve". I'd suggest that it actually means the rate of layoffs has slowed. That also has to be overlaid with the fact that most new 'jobs' are now part-time, on-call, low-paid. Perhaps we could have the total inflation-adjusted income total, yoy?

by Happy123 | 9th Aug 13, 9:37am 1375997878

More doom. More gloom.

Less layoffs is a good thing. "That also has to be overlaid with the fact that most new 'jobs' are now part-time, on-call, low-paid" - your inventing facts to support your arguement.

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 9:51am 1375998669

http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/08/04/new-jobs-disproportionately-low-paying-part-time/PJLqZiPvKgc91rfA9XkGgP/story.html

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/world/56686742-68/jobs-low-paying-job.html.csp

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/new-jobs-disproportionately-low-pay-or-part-time

No need to invent. Too easy: no increase in energy going into the system, not enough measurable efficiencies to match claimed growth, so growth as claimed has to be via 'jobs' being lesser-paid, and otherwise via the increasing in 'value' of existing items (like houses).

by steven | 9th Aug 13, 10:46am 1376001999

Nope, and the Q flows from this, how will higher rents be paid as the hours not only drop but also the hourly rate? Sure there will be some who do better but they by and large wont be the renter and will be smaller in number.

Hows the invseting in Infratil going btw?

regards

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 9:10am 1375996215

http://steadystate.org/a-post-growth-economy-in-france/

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 9:19am 1375996751

France has been in a steady state , almost comatose , for several decades now .... burdened by high taxes , and low quality government spending ...

... seems the right place for the world's foremost malthusians to meet for a conference ...

Flew there on jets from far flung parts of the globe ..... consuming fossil fuels in bulk , rather than just teleconferencing ....

.... bunch of hypocrits , aren't they !

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 10:00am 1375999247

Shoot the messenger to shoot the message.

Not original.

http://www.triplepundit.com/2013/06/richard-branson-b-team-for-sustainable-business/

http://bteam.org/

Same hypocrisy comment could be pointed at them - but what we're seeing is an increasing discussion about limits, and living within them. You should look up Spike Milligans cure for baldness.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 10:28am 1376000899

.... did any of them fly economy ? ...... I'd guess they all went first class to France , were staying in 5 star hotels , and consuming the finest cusine and champagnes whilst there ...

I don't begrudge anyone that ... enjoy life , have fun ...

.... but don't then lecture the rest of us about population control , consumption constraints , and peak-any-freaking-thing .... that's is hypocrisy on their part , and gob-smacking arrogance to boot ...

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 10:37am 1376001451

Hook line and sinker.

A hypocrite and a message-shooter.

You know very well what you're trying to avoid addressing. I'm happy saying 'mea cupla', and trying to do something about it. So are they. That doesn't reflect very well on those who would obfuscate in lightweight fashion. Lack of moral fortitude comes to mind.

by KH | 9th Aug 13, 11:15am 1376003754

PDK is abusive.

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 11:38am 1376005114

KH - now, you wouldn't be shooting a messenger too, would you?

Was there any content of your post that wasn't?

How about contributing? I put up some seriously thought-provoking links - the French one and the PlanB one. What it got was lightweight denigration of the shoot-the-messenger kind.

I don't have much - any - respect for that approach, and make no apologies for showing it up for what it is.

Have you a serious contribution? I noted your '500 million' comment the other day - have you a reference of justification? I recall Professor Ellen Moseley-Thompson - droll lady - asking the 'how many' question some time ago at the Uni Staff Club. She replied "That isn't the question". 'Tell me the per-head consumption-rate you want to live at, and I'll tell you the carrying-capacity".

The French conference and the PlanB (lotta good Kiwis involved) initiative are proactive attempts to address the pending issue(s) of our time. Or maybe you think Derek Handley is some kind of lightweight?

My challenge to PlanB, would be that that can't actually have 'profit', and attain ecological sustainablilty - because the profit expects to be spent.

http://www.geography.osu.edu/faculty/emt/

by steven | 9th Aug 13, 12:01pm 1376006512

"She replied "That isn't the question". 'Tell me the per-head consumption-rate you want to live at, and I'll tell you the carrying-capacity"."

Except it looks like there is a link of population numbers to complexity (ie you cant have complexity without population) and in turn complexity to degree of lifestyle. So if you want to live as you are now, you need the complexity you have now and much of the population you have now. So after considerable interpolation we'll have to settle for what life style we get based on what population thats left that can be supported from what resources / carrying capacity tahts left, which we are damaging that....

regards

by KH | 9th Aug 13, 12:20pm 1376007654

Interesting Steven. There is a mass required for complexity. But don't assume it's huge. Maybe it's not huge. Not in the billions and maybe not in the 100s of millions. You do need political productiveness, education, and generally a system that lets complexity build.

For example only. If in the western world the Romans had managed to hold it together politically and organisationally. Technology would have continued to progress and where we have got to now would have been about 1000 years earlier. Instead we had a big gap called the dark ages.

by steven | 9th Aug 13, 12:34pm 1376008466

Im not assuming its huge as Ive seen nothing concrete in terms of factors, so maybe we can cut the population in half and not suffer loss of lifestyle. Lets say yes, maybe even to 1/4, but down to 1/14th? ie the 500million in your point, quite a large difference. Most of the work/papers I have seen suggests 1.5billion to 2billion btw...1/2 billion is by far the lowest, URLs pls?

Romans, well the technical progress was until the Industrial revolution still low. eg sailing ships reigned for 2000? years (oar power was military use only). Coal ships ruled for 50~80 max, oil powered ships probably at most a similar span. The key here was massive expansion in excess energy released by coal IMHO. Your right in that if the Romans had stayed together maybe we would have sent Neil Armstrong to the moon in the 1400s. Of course looking at the road map for AGW we would now not exist as human's would be extinct no later than 1600s.

regards

by KH | 9th Aug 13, 12:45pm 1376009156

There will be some number that the planet can carry and somebody can work it out I suppose. And others will disagree with it.

But in my view we should not be seeking to build up to that number. Or anywhere near it. Better to go nowhere near that tipping point.

Technology. Every time I go to Rome I go the the Pantheon. Soaring arched concrete roof. Not as good as Grafton Bridge, but pretty darn good. And I go look because I am stunned with the idea that for about a thousand years between then and now it went back down to sticks and mud.

Government, law, democracy, - so hard to get right and keep right. But it's what performs in the end.

Size. I could see us doing star travel from a population of 50 million on the planet. If we got the other skittles lined up properly.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 12:51pm 1376009464

27 billion , 458 million , 563 .

by KH | 9th Aug 13, 1:08pm 1376010497

Pretty good. But I'm worried about the last 563. Could be the end of us.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 1:14pm 1376010854

Just trying to be scion tiffic ...

.... and pray someone you know doesn't squirt out # 27 458 000 564

by KH | 9th Aug 13, 12:03pm 1376006610

"PDK is abusive" Yes I stand by that because you were being abusive. And it's in scope of the thread because you started that behaviour.

by puketepapa | 9th Aug 13, 11:42am 1376005354

While GBH is amusing and clever, you should realise that he is a self-declared middle-aged successful speculator to whom life has been kind. Not a worry in the world. The tune he plays on his hamlin-lute is appropriate to people of his station in life, and all those above his station in life, to whom, yes life is good, very good. His message to the peasants below his station in life is don't worry, I'm not.

by steven | 9th Aug 13, 10:59am 1376002775

Attacking a "greenie" for not living in a cave but being out there trying to change attittudes is the flip side of the other "it cant be a problem no ones complaining or asking for change"

What about your kids? because what you are saying with "enjoy life , have fun" is, I'll take it all today and leaving nothing for them. But then thats really par for the course on your outlook on life.

regards

by Christov | 9th Aug 13, 12:33pm 1376008380

Gee, tough thread....is it me or are people round these parts getting a mite tetchy lately...? Prolly a little unfair I'd say to make assumptions that GBH is indifferent to the welfare of those that will follow him ....if your listening he's ju8st sending a different message , a different perspective , credo if you like.

To him GBH , I think it's about coping , competing,existing and finding opportunity in the world as it is, rather than as many of us think it should be idealistically speaking....and I don't see anything ..wrong in that, ..just different.

Just as I've found a lot of value in what PDK out's up , or Steven puts up, no it's not all great stuff ...but what ever is yeah...

When it comes to baits n bites there is always a choice....don't bite the fishing gets boring , don't bait the fishing gets boring......

dudes lighten up it;'s Friday...remember Friday..? it used to have a feel about it....ah maybe not ah dunno.

Yay !

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 12:41pm 1376008902

Hello Count : Very kind of you , old chum .... wotcha up to , keeping busy ?

.... our dear sweet Amanda is leaving us , homesick for Canada .... missing the icey cold atmosphere , the wrestling with giant moose-like beasts , the appalling coffee .... come to think of it , she should be getting all of those things just sharing an office with Bernard Hickey ......

Ah well , life's too short to worry about the tetchiness or bad coffee and gloomsterisers .... keep your stick on the ice , buddy !

by Christov | 9th Aug 13, 12:47pm 1376009267

Hey up GBH....i'll spot you around here over the next week or so I hope, gotta bail again right now.....but I'll be keeping an eye on all this mayhem....on a Chaso thread too..? who'd have thought he'd sit for it...I mean now it's all high brow on topic kind of thingy....

Stay Well Mon Ami.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 9th Aug 13, 1:10pm 1376010614

Dave's OK , Count .... he only has a low tolerance for folk wasting internet atoms , and for mucking around with his name .... we're OK....

... topic ? .... there was a topic.... oh.... missed that ....

Nah , Chaso's alright .... just don't call him one-eyed like Ivan did .....he's got two now , and proud of it .... can't for the life of me think where the surgeon implanted the second one ....

... any hoo , gotta go .... catcha 'round the traps ...

Pip pip !

by south paw | 9th Aug 13, 1:11pm 1376010670

GBH and Happy123 are Pollyannas. They love calling everyone else "Gloomsters!" who doesn't go along with the propaganda.

Happy123 even denies in this thread that USA jobs "growth" is an illusion. But doesn't produce any thing to back up that position.

by Your Landlord | 9th Aug 13, 1:03pm 1376010198

Perhaps some are grumpy 'cause 'The Oil Drum' has shut down... The Economist magazine declared the end of peak demand for oil... the USA is soon gonna be self-sufficient in oil... they have more jobs and higher treasury yields... house prices in lots of countries are up, up and away...

Oh dear, it might all be too much for the doom gloom and despondency brigade to digest at once?

by powerdownkiwi | 9th Aug 13, 1:27pm 1376011636

Interesting comment.

The 'end of peak demand' presumably translates (it's a bit mangled, linguistically) as: we have peaked in daily real flow-rate.

It doesn't matter much whether it's seen as a chicken of an egg; flow-rate has peaked.

The US may well be self-sufficient in oil, any time it wishes. If demand is 1 million barrels/day, and supply is 1 million barrels/day, it can be said to be self-sufficient. However, it is a long way from it's 1970 cumulative peak (9.6 mbpd) and putting more and more effort into the effort. 'Available petajoules' would be a better measure.

Treasury yields 'values are in the eye of the beholder.

House prices (existing stock) rising are a zero-sum game. The houses are as they were. The planet is what it was. If an owner has more proxy, someone else relatively hasn't. If the underwrite isn't there, then either you get inflation (fitting the $ to the static supply) or you get defaults (too many $ to inflation-adjust the numbers to the reality quick enough).

Think I've mentioned it before hereabouts, but emotive comments are best kept out of it - just clouds the issue and suggests the issuer thereof has a lightweight argument.

The Oil Drum burned out..... :) In reality, it's reason for being moved on. No point in endlessly debating the exact point in time at which Peak happened. Sooner or later, it's better to get on with addressing what needs to be addressed post-peak. That's why the Energy Bulletin became Resilience.org, and why Transition Towns started, why Food Forums http://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/magazine/267101/growing-concern and Resilience groups and so on are being formed. The change is groundswelling from the bottom up. The way all change happens; the instances of incumbent leadership rising to the challenge of a new paradigm are few and far between.

by steven | 9th Aug 13, 1:44pm 1376012673

If you want to believe the US energy independnace humbug be my guest. Of course there are 156 countries (or thereabouts) in the world, most of which such an independance doesnt change a thing.

Well with all the cheap property in the US and the boom times from cheap oil coming the opportunity for you to move seems obvious, jump over the pacific....riches await you. You will do far better over there than here, listen to PhilBest and HughP, land in Houston, profit.

The oil drum moved on, simple.

regards

by Plutocracy | 9th Aug 13, 2:19pm 1376014760

Just like the US was ontrack for 'energy independence' in the 1980's when they discovered the giant Alaskan fields on the North Slope... Then they peaked and declined. Who woulda' thought? Anyway, where's my $5 dollar barrel of oil that The Economist promised me in the early 2000's eh? We were supposed to be 'drowning in oil' right about now!