Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of economic progress amid geopolitical risks.
Although tensions over Syria are rising, so are the latest key economic signals in the US, China and Europe.
Firstly, US consumer confidence data came in better than expected. In fact a fall was expected, but the Conference Board index actually rose.
More than that, the June Case-Schiller Index of US property values rose 12% in June from a year earlier, although a slowing trend in the rise has developed.
And another closely-watched manufacturing survey came in very strongly.
In an echo from the subprime crisis, the US Government is finally pressing JPMorganChase for a huge US$6 billion settlement.
Across the Atlantic, German business confidence rose to its highest level in 16 months in August, beating forecasts and indicating that the recovery in Europe’s largest economy is gathering pace.
Also reporting industrial improvement was China. Profits are up, says the NBS. The data adds to higher-than-forecast industrial production in July, a rebound in trade, and a stronger reading for their PMI released last week.
Shoring up their fragile situation, India has announced overnight a NZ$35 bln stimulus package.
And across the Tasman, the Aussie residential market is showing clear signs of 'recovery'. Lending is higher, prices are up, and today we expect to hear that affordability is declining.
But the posturing over Syria is overshadowing everything else.
Oil is up to almost US$109/barrel, gold is sharply higher and now over US$1,415/oz, and the Dow is down more than 1%. AEP is reporting that Saudi Arabia has secretly offered Russia a sweeping deal, if the Kremlin backs away from supporting Damascus.
The NZ dollar starts today much lower at 77.9 USc, 86.9 AUc, and the TWI is 73.5. The higher oil price and lower exchange rate will hurt at the pump soon. On the other hand, the forces behind yesterday's surprise lift in the Fonterra payout probably got another boost.
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85 Comments
Syria huh .... Gummie's got this niggly-naggly feeling of deja vu , again .... we know for sure that Assad was behind the gassing ? ..... we know that we're not being suckered in by rebel elements ?.... we know who the " good guys " are in this civil war , and we aren't gonna bolster Al Kyoda again ? ...
... and we're gonna trust the European leaders and the Americans to get it right , this time .... and trust them to not lie to us again ...
Hmmmmmm ..... what could possibly go wrong !
It is time for us to stop mucking around in the Muslim world ... we've been on terror alert ever since the Iraq debacle , and it serves us right ...
... even if there's just an aerial strikes against Syrian military targets , civilians will become " collateral damage " ....
Funny how that world " collateral " sounds so similar to " cattle " .... as if their lives don't matter so much , or that some innocents must die " for the greater good " ....
It's that iexorable link to the arms selling ,gun toting successive Administrations as...part...of the economy in the U.S. GBH , as if somehow hand in glove to keep America the freindliest bully in the Trade world.
They need to focus internaly, to compete, to produce quality, and then use their skills to create steady markets for their produce instead of either having to kill or threaten someone for someone else (as they see a good sherrif would), to keep their lines of access stable.
They can, .....but it would require a massive move away from that seige mentality without a loss of face or respect.
Post Hiroshima, it is the burden they will bear, to be the bully, enforcer in what can be largely Trade/ Energy based wars, because it was at that moment in time they demonstrated to the world their willingness to do the unthinkable in a world of skirmish wars that came to a sudden standstill, where I'm sure so so many thought ....f*#k they actually did it.
The spectre of whether or not they'd do it again remains to this day....but as you know there will always be some dick somewhere that wants to prod , probe , just to really know for sure.
That ,I'm sure would be their biggest mistake not only for them but all of us.
I for one would love to see a disconnect from America's military and America's economy....but I'm not going to hold my breath.
Bwitten should just shut the hell up and concern itself with it's own crappy little mess.
"It is time for us to stop mucking around in the Muslim world"
I believe that strategy was tried in the past and it's called appeasement, didn't go so well. Ever heard of the expression "all it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to do nothing".
Yes the US is flawed but if China or Russia were the dominant power in this world they wouldn't be asking anyone permission or waiting for any conditions to be met. The US made a mess of Iraq and the Bush administration paid for it at the next election and the new administration is more cautious. Again, this wouldn't happen if a non-democratic country were the dominant power in the world. Your assumption is that if we, the West, do nothing the rest of the world will do the same and generally behave themselves.
As for civilians, I see some pretty horrific deaths tolls already, a few cruise missiles to take out artillery and other weapons wouldn't be such a bad idea.
It takes intelligence, guts and a position of power to chase central banksters and do what Prime Minister Victor Orban did in Hungary:
- get his Parliamentary ‘Debt Committee’ to realise the degree to which the national debt had increased
- decide that not only the people but also the responsible politicians should suffer
- seek for legal ways of taking past prime ministers to account
- chase the International Monetary Fund out of the country
- use the country’s sovereignty to issue debt-FREE, i.e. INTEREST-free money and thus finance the REAL economy and not the paper economy of bureaucrats, deceivers and criminals.
His life is going to short if he keeps this up.
So US property values rose by 12% in the year to June, and Auckland property prices rose by ....... oh! ...... 12%, and we go into a frantic tailspin,
We need to get real about what asset prices will do in this environment with huge amounts of cheap QE money washing up all over the place.
This outcome is exactly what we refer to as the "unintended cosequences" of the QE polices, which is simply adding fuel to a fire.
Every asset class is going up in value with some equity markets reaching all -time highs
This goes for stocks and shares, prefs, debentures , futures , commercial property , residential property , most commodities (milk included) , so we need to understand the cause anfd effect
This CEPR report adds the necessary colour to the latest US housing data releases.
So US property values rose by 12% in the year to June, and Auckland property prices rose by ....... oh! ...... 12%, and we go into a frantic tailspin,
Lets be realistic Boatman and not misleading. In the U.S. the 12% rise comes after a 30% and more in some states slump post GFC. (40%plus)
So if you measure the rise post GFC it is moderate to say the least.
Auckland's rise comes of the back of considerable year on year increases post GFC.
So not apples with apples or even close.....and Auckland is still seen by the IMF among others as having some of the most over-valued real estate in the World.
That is to say the speculative content of prices paid is seriously unbalanced.
And US fixed interest rates for 30 year mortgages is 3.875% at Amerisave: http://www.amerisave.com/?source=3854
Isn't interest tax deductible on home mortages in the US as well.
Boatman I think you're correct in that prices will keep going up as there is too much money chasing to few goods. If there wasn't enough money running around and loads of goods then we would see prices decline.
I can't see the RBNZ LTVR working simply because there is not an over-supply of housing there is a large under-supply. This policy will most likely be a failure and I assume common sense will prevail and they will abandon it. The LTVR policy has been implemented at the incorrect time.
I think you could well be correct in that every asset price will go up in value this printed money has to find a home.
You could go a lot further than that. The QE by the Federal Reserve was intended to put a safety net under asset prices and avoid a total collapse and savage deflation by devaluing the USD by 50% resulting in the Dow Jones increasing by 100% in devalued dollar terms. That US property has not enjoyed the same reflation is telling. So.. Boatman, comparing 12% in America to 12% in New Zealand terms is fallacious.
AJ - it doesn't matter what gets printed and what facts come out there is no willingness or desire to make the necessary changes. Honesty and integrity have gone the way of the dinosaurs to a large percentage of the population.
People would rather concern themselves with gossip magazines, house renovations, biggest loser and other reality TV type BS. So it's business as usual for the banks. Although JP Morgan might have a little 6 billion to pay soon I see.
Divert attention from the consequences of the QE taper? - not that the stock market will notice, other than those who made ungrounded fortunes.
George Friedman makes an interesting point:
This is no longer simply about Syria. The United States has stated a condition that commits it to an intervention. If it does not act when there is a clear violation of the condition, Obama increases the chance of war with other countries like North Korea and Iran. One of the tools the United States can use to shape the behavior of countries like these without going to war is stating conditions that will cause intervention, allowing the other side to avoid crossing the line. If these countries come to believe that the United States is actually bluffing, then the possibility of miscalculation soars.
It doesn't get interesting until the consequences section.
Revelations of accepted US behaviour cannot be stemmed:
But the CIA documents, which sat almost entirely unnoticed in a trove of declassified material at the National Archives in College Park, Md., combined with exclusive interviews with former intelligence officials, reveal new details about the depth of the United States’ knowledge of how and when Iraq employed the deadly agents. They show that senior U.S. officials were being regularly informed about the scale of the nerve gas attacks. They are tantamount to an official American admission of complicity in some of the most gruesome chemical weapons attacks ever launched. Read more
Yesterday I saw a westpac bill-board ad and one of the bullet points was "6 months pre-approval" Great for the bank(s) of course, once you have that its possible you are locked into them and cant go elsewhere....
Leadin, simple the banks have to adjust to comply. It will work out anyway over 6months worst case. Meanwhile we'll just see a few thousand "lucky" ppl rush in and probably get well burned.
regards
Tell you what then lets see your predictions for 5 years, so we have balance, eh?
lets see who's closer.
Otherwise, yes Im more than happy with that happy123.
In terms of housing market prediction by all means, yes please do take note....its not sustainable its tulip mania and it will pop. Im happy to be held on record for the dawning of the realisation that we cant grow anymore and will shrink as oil output shrinks.
Add in that I also think Bernard's 30% drop prediction is at least 1/2 too small, Ie I think it will be 60% plus from the peak, in fact I wouldnt be gob smacked at 75% from the peak.
regards
He talks about the big one, one day, well OK thats one probable event an unknown time frame into the future that could be tomorrow or hunderds of years, and of unknown size, maybe a 7 (no biggee) maybe an 8.4, oops, wipeout.
Then we see his limitations and I suspect political blinkers. He then says reduce public transport, however Peak oil is not far into the future, its here and now, (give or take 5 years) so building more roads cars most of us cannot afford to drive on makes no sense. He also ignores the xtra CO2 produced at the rate we are going we have 150 years at most before we are extinct and its likely we will have no economy inside 80.
The root cause piece, well they critise PK's comments, yet he points out Pittsburge has actually done well, unlike Detroit. The difference Pittsburg is more concentrated and has a good centre where detroit it seems does not.
Really both pieces are right wing politically derived points of view, of dubious reseacrh and opinion and not something to base action on.
regards
Hugh, really its math, if you skipped that in school, well try this its very simple,
Steven I do not want to rubbish your entire argument. Obviously for non renewable resources, consumption at any rate, exponential or not, will sooner or later consume the entire resource.
But I am not sure that the sort of growth that developed countries have fits your exponential model. It seems a lot of growth is qualitative not quantitative. I do not eat twice the food calories that my father ate and four times that of my grandfather. And in fact some things I use less of, my car is lighter and more efficient, my house is more energy efficient. I do have some things that my immediate forbears did not have, but they are actually quite small and not that resource demanding -mobile phones, computers, the internet etc.
My workplace is a lot smaller as psychitrict treatments have improved, allowing patients and staff to move out into the community. A definite improvement but not clearly using more energy or resources.
So I think qualitative growth is still possible but quantitative growth may be reaching its limits.
Brendon - you probably do eat more calories that your forbears. We are taller and living longer, not to mention the virtual calories (oil, via fertilisers, transport, plastic packaging).
You car may be lighter, but the number of cars and the km's travelled are much higher. Yes, your house and appliances may be more efficient, but the number of houses is so much more (includes probably your parents and granparents houses), you use more appliances, and sometimes they just did without.
Yes, you can have quality with less resource consumption. That won't offset growith numbers, won't offset depletion, and won't offset the Jevons Paradox.
See if you can get to Jeanette Fitzsimmons talk - she goes down that track; in many ways she says whay I say here. Sorry, the Otago Daily Times - in typical biased fashion - tucked this away lightly-headed, top of Page 6 (classic) and it looks like someone took to it editorially with a machete:
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/270494/change-way-life-coming
and a different but equally spare
http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/business/8881811/Prize-quality-over-growth-says-ex-MP
My better half came away saying: "well, she didn't tell me anything I didn't know, and she really didn't have any answers".
Probably because until several billion of us shuffle off, there aren't any. :)
(She gave her talk here just after 'world overshoot day', which this year - it gets earlier every year - was Aug20
.http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/gfn/page/earth_overshoot_day/
... I don't know Brendon personally , but I'd be more than a tadge surprised if he could eat more calories than four bears in an average day ....
At his prime , Bernard Hickey could trough the tucker like a trencherman , perhaps as many as 4 bears .... but just a shadow of his former glory now , since surgeons installed a 25 kg Skellerup band around his stomach , .... sadly ....
To start with, we have added how many to the population of the planet since WW2? In that time we have moved from a fairly organic food production system to a highly fossilised one....then there is packaging. Then there is the air miles of a ceasar salad brought to point of eating even in the depths of winter.
The biggest point however is not the final consumption of that resource but the maximum production rate. Peak oil doesnt happen at say 2050 it hapens about 1/2 way about now. This is the biggest thing you have to get to grips with. After that 1/2 way point 2 things happen 1) the production drops 2) the cost to get the last 1/2 rockets....
Because we eat fossil fuels we have been able to increase our population as that output has increased, ergo as the output decreases our population has to decrease, and thats via starvation.
Now sure we can get efficieency games, hence the population decline wont really kick in for some years, maybe 10. Though thats assumes everyone is equally wealthy, clearly not...So rich ppl will continue to drive SUVs while poor ppl buy less food. This can be demonstrated with ethanol in the USA V tortillas in mexico...
Ive kind of condensed hugh amounts of reading into 4 paras...
There are some excellent videos on youtube to watch, hours and hours that will fill in the gaps.
Brendon@12.22
NZ, if you go down the logic-path, has two potential problems, and a few bonuses.
One problem is global population/refugee waves. We could well be swamped.
Another is being overtaked by military means; same outcome.
Otherwise, global population doesn't decline fast enough to alleviate resource scarcity (overshoot never does) and the growh-based global fiscal system has to fail. That means we either get default/receivership-owned by overseasers, or that the system-crash takes out that debt stuff. I can't predict the speed or the outcome - so the best advice is to carry no debt.
Food? Yes we produce it. Yes, it'll be in demand. There will however, post debt, be a lessening ability to 'pay' for our produce. I expect an attempt to drive us ordinary folk into being cannon-fodder, and a political awareness/groundswell which will resist (and that's why the increase in GCSB toolbox). The people always win the first round, but it's a dice-roll who/what rises to the surface in the wake of a Bastille event.
If we can stay insulated (and all nations will trend to protectionism from here on) then we can keep ourselves going, food-wise and socially, very well indeed. It would have to be an agreed egalitarian society, of course, or we'd just do to out habitat what the global population has done on a macro scale. It may be that the global impacts make it harder - CC is overarching.
My guess is that we will increasingly use CBD's as accomodation, and eventually they'll be accomodation only. My guess is that - with varying degrees of improvisation - we'll adapt our existing housing stock, and infrastructure (expect more tar-to-gravel).
Beyond that? Be resilient, be mulit-skilled, network with others who see where it's going..... I'm seeing that everywhere now.
Ok PDK to address these concerns. To swamp NZ a country of 4 million plus would require a mass migration of refugees of 100,000s across 1000skm of ocean and unless the flood of refugees was truly massive, say millions of people it would require serious military hardware. Only a few countries could manage that and I doubt they would see it worth the effort.
Debt is a contract based on expected future outcomes, if those outcomes do not eventuate then default becomes an option. Because we are sovereign country with control over its monetary system we have the option of default by printing money/inflation. We do not have to become slaves to foreign overseers. Note Ireland recently did not have this option and look what sort of problems they are in. Are they the ultimate unlucky country.
Actually, Hughey, some of us are getting sick of your ideological eyewash.
And I am surprised at a natural Act-type not knowing another. There's less than a class-room full of you, after all.
But the problem you have is that shooting a messenger or two, won't bury the message.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120618-global-resources-stock-check
The Beeb. A well known Malthusian institution - mind you, Malthus was right. Here's what he really said:
“No man can say that he has seen the largest ear of wheat or the largest oak that could ever grow; but he might easily, and with perfect certainty, name a point of magnitude at which they would not arrive. In all these cases therefore, a careful distinction should be made between an unlimited progress, and a progress where the limit is merely undefinied”
You have a problem with that?
Looks like others are feeling the effects of converging contest for resources, coupled with CC;
Old ideas die with the old. The problem is that we need to speed up the process, given the lack of lead-time left.
Hey hey...come on there guys that's a bit harsh altogether.....like i said before it's only ever bait to a willing fish , no matter who is doing the baiting or de bate ing as the case may be.
Case point, I used to really get a gutsfull of Bernard's boomer obsession and his willingness to weave it in to all things responsible for economic gloom.....finally I realised if I just stopped feeling baited.....i could let it be ...and he and sancho could ride into the sunset in search of more mythical dragons to slay.
debate....disagreement...argument....makes for good blog...the odd bitch behaviour adds to the colour and signals emotions out of check.......no biggie.
I like Bernard....but ,I thoroughly disagree with him on any number of things......besides, if you polled us all I'd prolly disappear in round 1.....by the time we got to the final sweep it would just be You Gbh, Brendon, Stephen Hulme, Iconoclast and a handfull of others that would soon be in conflict.
What I tire of....i don't read....what I don't read may contain something I didn't know, what I missed may be something I didn't need to know.
I read it all - and find it interesting. It's got me to the understanding that we are probably stuffed as a species (which is good news for every other species, of course).
But watching the GBH descent into lightweight, insincere banter (after chasing me all over the site which I didn't bother reacting to, apart from wondering why someone would be doing that; fear/denial was my guess) and the KH need to not cross a certain threshold, I don't see us going where we need to go.
Now the idea is to vote an uncomfortable idea away? Excellent. Quite the mature approach. Reminds me of a rural person who recently, when told a supply of something wouldn't/couldn't be continued forever, said "Oh, people won't put up with that!"
I do as much as anyone to effect the needed change, demonstrate as much as anyone how to adapt, But at the end of the day if folk can deny the problem, they can deny the need to address it (CC this last 20 years has been a classic example) - which leads to the need to raise awareness of the problem. One wouldn't do that, without expecting some reaction, now, would one? It was only last night, I realised how far Hughey had actually come re CBDs - though to be honest, it may be due to watching Chch get along without one as much as listening to us, and might be a bit of anti-the-Auckland-Council density instinct in there too.
Go well Count, I'm about to have a sustainable day. :)
What's your point, Hughey? It would seem to bear out my/our observation(s).
Detroit is an example of where infrastructure will go, post easily-available energy.
You might enjoy this - the comments are killers. Seems the understanding is getting to be pretty mainstream:
Good luck with that crowded seance.
PDK,
By the by, the thrust of the Economist article seems to be that demand for oil is reducing rapidly; and that will cause the peak to occur/have occurred. Not that supply is hitting a peak, causing demand to fall out of necessity.
I'm not sure it matters all that much whether it is demand or supply, except that price signals seem to be working well.
Yes it is, but that's the joke. I laughed all the way round my morning chores and back again.
Seems to me, they correctly identified the inflexion-point. The one we have always pointed to here. If there is over supply, then the only way prices would hold up, is through manipulation/collusion. That's the witch-hunt the Euro leaders went on - gone strangely quiet.
Not being physics-types, they miss the implications, in terms of work do-able, and therefore income underwriteable. I think the comments are priceless - surprising they are available, and surprising there's no rebuttal. We are certainly moving on, is what I take from that.
Notice that nobody - I waited for someone here to do it, didn't happen - has questioned the Chinese coal stockpiling. If you knew that SA would be a net importer by 2030, that peak coal would be by 2027 (although you were changing that by your stockpiling), that money is only a proxy and energy the only valid buyable prize ........... would you not stockpile? Who wins, the waver of a fistful of dollars, or the holder of a mountain of coal? Unasked, unanswered - says a lot about the mental transfer of item to proxy, 'wealth'-wise.
Who wins, the waver of a fistful of dollars, or the holder of a mountain of coal?
Good point. (Even if I'm not quite convinced that coal will run out quite so fast). I would add "Who wins, the waver of a fistful of dollars, or the holder of a fantastic and irreplaceable system of hydro power stations?"
Our good Mr English is very proud of the dollars he is now waving around. (even though if push came to shove, he could print up plenty more if needed). Astonishing that admittedly a minority of trusting New Zealanders seems to support his view.
Hugh. So good to hear a description from somebody who has been on the ground there. PDK made his usual off discussion attempt and missed the interesting stuff.
Landscape interests me and about how places can be abandoned. Seems to be neccessary, But there is always someone just hanging on.
We could clean up and let nature take charge completely. Worst option is not acknowledging that the city is gone and the whole thing just exists on life support.
"We could clean up and let nature take charge completely"
That's the whole point. You need grunt to to the 'clean-up', the grunt is in more and more contention, of lesser and lesser quality, and all spoken for currently.
So you won't 'clean up'. Tackling Climate Change meaningfully, could be categorised as 'cleaning up'. We aren't doing it, and are never going to do it, because we won't choose to triage what we're doing, and in the CC case, the infrastructure would be as big as the FF infrastructure - an impossible task.
So more and more, we'll see the likes of Detroit. Yes, Hughey has a point that we may see wider-spaced clusters, but they need to be sustainable. That's quite different from survival adaption in a Detroit or a Cuba. Those clusters, though, have only one bite at getting it right. Hugheys 'starters' don't cut that mustard. The Transition Towns folk - the classic is Blueskin Resilient Community down here - are probably the closest to where we whould be going. There are a lot there who understand that building an electric car and equipping yourself with solar panels, is a valid use of income and oil-availability - but not the way middle-class western society might somehow maintain itself with a few tweaks.
Mind you, someone like me - who specialises in building infrastructure out of junk - would probably thrive in the ghost-city physically. Just not socially, one suspects. Of course, there goes Auckland within 20 years, you realise that? Yet some folk think it's worth discussing the benefits of hypothetical motorways.
You didn't get it again PDK. But anyway.
Hugh. Maybe we would not need to sort out the towns. Good fence around and let hungry nature take over. Been looking at the town Pripyat near Chernobyl. Interesting how it goes. Be interesting to see how it would be in another twenty years.
I dont think you get it KH, in 20 years there will be many Detriot's...several chernbyl's also is possible. I mean the likes of Pakistan has nukes and is but some months away from default., who knows what desperate Govns, or the troops they dont pay will get up to.
regards
Struggling to understand your response there Steven.
in 20 years there will be many Detriot's..Yes. .several chernbyl's also is possible. Yes I mean the likes of Pakistan has nukes and is but some months away from default., Yes. who knows what desperate Govns, or the troops they dont pay will get up to.Yes.
I see all those things as possible/likely. But what is your point.
KH - don't know how long you've been around, but the most interesting thing is Hugh's morphing.
He - not so long ago - was calling CBDs "the engine-room of the economy".
We took him to task on that, but I realise by his above comments that he's taken our comments on board.
Your comment, on the other hand, coming from one keen to discuss internal-motorway alternatives, seems primarily aimed at putting my comments down, however much mental dyslexia it takes.
go well - while you can
Yes PDK. I do see you as the person here who does most of the putdowns and most comments that 'shoot the messenger'
You do get annoyed when anybody is off topic, which according to you is anything not your topic. ( you have sincerely explained your view that it is the only topic - not because it it is your view, but because it is the only topic - in your view)
In this discussion I was discussing how major urban areas would/could return to nature. I have a interest in big landscape. I'm not going to apologise for not discussing your one idea on all occasions.
Hint. Lots of us agree with your view. But we also have other interests. Annoying as that can be to you.
... be fair , steven probably matches PDK for sheer volume of put-downs of other bloggers ....
PDK does tinge his derision with a more ascerbic tone ....
... whereas steven always gives you a warm feeling with his " regards " , after tearing you to shreds personally ...
After awhile here , you become a connoisseur of these things !
And I would suggest GBH some of our barbs are no less demeaning even if somewhat better crafted or disguised...
They may be viewed as our resident Malthusians, they may beat a rhythm giving rise to the ocassional headache.....but they are ....0UR...resident malthusians...and as much a part of our Blog community as Walter was.
I respect constants, and those consistent in character and deed whether or not I agree with them .( obviously not axe weilding homicidal maniacs)
You gotta say since the introduction of the thumbs up system Steven and PDK have dealt with their own shunning by the community well, and still returned to share their credo , for that alone I admire their nuts and fortitude in doing so.
And what if KH is really a clever 'plant', with cleverly chosen initials? With the aim to shut down such a dangerous debate? Had to happen at some point.
I remember watching a fellow watching a July Front (who?) march years ago, speaking into a chrome microphone on the end of the handle of a multi-coloured sun umbrella - in the Octagon, shoulder-season, evening.
Wasn't you, was it, "KH" ?
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