90 seconds at 9 am: Back from the brink

90 seconds at 9 am: Funding deal reached in US; February 7 new crunch day; US growth still modest; Markets up; UK jobless claims down; Hong Kong house prices sag; NZ$ up

17th Oct 13, 8:21am by David Hargreaves

Here's my summary of the key overnight news in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news that the US appears set to step back from the brink.

Bipartisan agreement appears to have been reached that will see the so-called debt ceiling, due to be hit tomorrow our time, extended out to February 7, while Government funding would be extended to January 15, so ending the partial government shutdown that began at the start of this month.

The senate and the house are expected to vote on the deal later today.

As you would imagine the markets liked the news, with Wall Street surging toward fresh highs and treasury bill yields falling. European stocks were up. And the price of gold lifted by $8.60 to $1281.60.

Not all good news today though as the Federal Reserve in its Beige Book business survey reported that US economic growth remained “modest to moderate”.

The report said that employment growth “remained modest” in September, and price and wage pressures “were again limited,” This news comes about two weeks ahead of the next Fed Reserve meeting.

In the UK, jobless claims fell 41,700 last month, which was the most in 16 years, although the unemployment rate stayed at 7.7%.

But the data will be watched closely, bearing in mind that Britain’s central bank’s said it won’t lift interest rates till the jobless rate falls to 7%, something that’s been thought unlikely to occur till 2016,

Slightly closer to home, analysts are predicting that Hong Kong home prices may fall as much as 25 percent from their peak. Merrill Lynch reckons prices will fall 5% this year and another 15% next year as housing supply increases and the possibility of rising interest rates grows.

Hong Kong home prices have fallen about 3 percent since March and transactions are at the lowest in almost two decades, after the government in February imposed its toughest yet measures to curb concerns of a real estate bubble.

The NZ dollar starts today higher again following yesterday’s slightly higher than expected inflation figures at 84USc, 88.15 Australian cents and the TWI is at 78.02.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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33 Comments

by iconoclast | 17th Oct 13, 11:04am 1381961073

David Hargreaves reports Hong Kong home prices are falling and predicted to fall 25%

What you didn't mention was the HK and SG governments imposed a 15% tax on foreign property buyers back in March

Wonder where those leprechauns have gone now? Are they staying home?, or are they heading over to the turnstyles at the AU and NZ pavilions? Shanghai born Jan Kot of Juwai.com visits Australia

by Ralph | 17th Oct 13, 12:59pm 1381967983

HK inflation is running at 4.5%, so in real terms house prices are falling at a n annualised rate of 7.5%.

by puketepapa | 17th Oct 13, 2:07pm 1381972060

Factboy touches on a key point. Yes there is a BLOCK on the subject. This issue has been going around here for years now. But it rarely gets any traction in the main stream media. Any mention that makes it past the cutting room floor tends to be an attention grabbing 10 second sound bite. Then it dies as everyone moves on to the next sensation

It is never discussed (in msm) dispassionately in terms of the downstream consequences to the native-local-indigenous society.

What is discussed is the difficulties posed for FHB's trying to get onto the property ladder. That leads to acres of space being written about the Unitary Plans, Urban Boundaries, Councils, Planning Departments, freeing up land, RBNZ introducing LVR's. Easy credit. If you always look to the front and never over your shoulder, you will never see it coming.

So what is it about the Main-Stream-Media's reluctance. Is it the fear of the almighty dollar?, advertising? The tap on the shoulder, the midnight phone call from a political party bovver-boy? a power broker, a lobbyist?

A good example is Bernard Hickey. First and foremost he bashes Baby Boomers as the sole cause of the property problem. Inter-generational theft. He gets so excited about it. He now haunts the halls of the parliament. He knows what is going on. Does he ever touch it? No. Silence. Have you ever wondered why? He will never write about it, because NZ Herald will never buy it, and Chaston wont buy it either, cause it will upset the commercial sensitivities.

Where have all the serious investigative journalists gone?

Then, it's not a debate anyone wants to have. And they won't. It's untouchable. Until the societal consequences can't be undone.

by Ergophobia | 17th Oct 13, 10:36pm 1382002575

PTP. Ditto govt dirty hands in SCF. No one, inc. here, will touch it. They just parrot press releases.

by SK | 17th Oct 13, 11:38am 1381963130

Xenophobia isnt it?

Perhaps you could start dawn raiding immigrants.

by Christov | 17th Oct 13, 12:22pm 1381965752

It's you who need wake up SK, as they start casualy sending frigates down here on regular patrols, they call louder for the end of U.S. currency domination, they also cannot see why Australasia should not embrace them as the new territorial watchdogs of Oceana.

BTW...under the rules did anyone enquire by means of inspection if the Chinese warships were carring microwaves ..? breaching the no nuke policy...what a friggin joke..

As long as they obey our laws....geesus H, SK you'd clearly sell your kids future for a yard of advantage in the right now.

Good news is , that yard may be just enough to bury you in.

by puketepapa | 17th Oct 13, 12:44pm 1381967048

D'ya reckon those warships sailed around North Cape, travelled down he east coast and heaved to just off the Hen and Chickens while an NZ Customs Packet rocked up and inspected the engine room and weaponry?

by Ralph | 17th Oct 13, 1:03pm 1381968201

That might be slightly rich from a "Factboy" who doesn't quote any.

by Kakapo | 17th Oct 13, 12:45pm 1381967111

For the millionth time, it has nothing to do with immigrants. It's the recognition by those not being wilfully obtuse that it's impossible to open up a market this tiny to every money launderer and tax dodger on earth without it causing some damaging distortions.

by Christov | 17th Oct 13, 12:59pm 1381967957

With respect Kakapo , we don't open up a market, we court the input ,knowing full well so called unintended consequences have the term inevitable attached, that ,collateral damage is the trade off for foreign investment agendas.

It is their,( China's) intentions, strategic or otherwise that is as much of concern as the short term effect of foreign landgrab under very lax OIO policy.

It's why Key gets the 21 gun, to inspect a parade, to sit at the right place at the table, because we...are playing the game, and the piper will come a calling.

Bet on It.

by Kakapo | 17th Oct 13, 1:05pm 1381968333

Nice little country you've got here. Terrible if something happened to it, but I wouldn't do anything to harm my valuable real estate and resources, now would I?

See also: money launderers don't care if they overpay.

by Alter Ego | 17th Oct 13, 1:24pm 1381969441

Look up Quisling and Vichy France. There is a price to pay for our nice little country.

Chinese warships visiting are not bringing our friends for a few days sightseeing.

Dot.coms.nz are one way to view things here, but there is nothing like the real thing, legal or otherwise to see the lie of the land.

by powerdownkiwi | 17th Oct 13, 12:37pm 1381966650

We will host our good neighbour.

Signed: Miklos Horthy, National.

I lambast the Left, long and loud, for not having the answers. But - the further right they are, the more ignorant they sound. Not surprising - the more you spin, the further from the truth you get, and the stupider you look. It's nothing to do with 'right' or 'left', it's to do with degrees of honesty.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Oct 13, 2:08pm 1381972084

... meanwhile , over at the wild west saloon ( also known as the NZX ! ) , Xero is shooting out the lights , pardners .... she's up another 9 % this morning , a hefty $ 2.30 gain , to $ 24.80 per share ... In just two weeks the sophisticated investors who biffed an extra $ 180 million into the kitty have seen their gamble rewarded with a 35 % gain ...

And this $ 2.8 billion behemoth has yet to make an after tax profit .... even if they double last year's revenue to $ 70 million in 2013/14 ... their price-to-sales ratio will be an astronomical 40 ....

... anything flying that high ought to have astronauts on board .....

Lawdy , lawdy .... how much will the shares trade for if they actually made a penny of profit !

by powerdownkiwi | 17th Oct 13, 3:35pm 1381977326

Not often I agree with GBH, but this is one. Mind you, the name might have given folk a hint as to the underwritten return.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Oct 13, 3:43pm 1381977837

... by a strange twist of fate , another tech darling to surge today has been RAKON , up a cent to 23 c ..... a 4 % lift ... and if you guys can recall , this stock once flirted with $ 5.70 , before it fell from grace ...

Watchout XERO , the market doesn't forgive if you screw up ! .... from hero to zero , lickety splick ...

by two otherguys | 17th Oct 13, 3:51pm 1381978286

Hey GBH, were you around in the days of Poseidon?

Share price went from $0.80 to $280 - you woulda had a ball

The Poseidon bubble was a stock market bubble in which the price of Australian mining shares soared in late 1969, then crashed in early 1970. It was triggered by the Poseidon NL company's discovery of a promising site for nickel mining in September 1969.

In the late 1960s, nickel was in high demand due to the Vietnam War,[1] but there was a shortage of supply due to industrial action against the major Canadian supplier Inco. These factors pushed the price of nickel to record levels, peaking at around £7,000/ton on the London market early in November 1969.[2] In September 1969, the mining company Poseidon NL made a major nickel discovery at Windarra in the Shire of Laverton, Western Australia. In early September their shares had been trading at $0.80, but as information about the discovery was released, the price rose until it was trading at $12.30 on October 1. After this, very little further information came to light, but the price continued to climb due to speculation; at one point, a UK broker suggested a value of up to $382 a share.

The price of Poseidon shares quickly became too high for many investors, so some turned to other nickel stocks, stocks in other mines near Windarra, and eventually other mining stocks in general. As the price of mining shares grew, new companies were listed by promoters looking to cash in. Mining stocks peaked in January 1970, then immediately crashed. Poseidon shares peaked at an intraday high of $280 in February 1970, and fell rapidly thereafter.

By the time Poseidon actually started producing nickel, the price of nickel had fallen. Also, the nickel ore was of a lower grade than originally thought, so extraction costs were higher. Profits from the mine were not sufficient to keep Poseidon afloat, and in 1976 it delisted. Western Mining then took over the mine, operating it until 1991.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Oct 13, 3:55pm 1381978539

... didn't the Americans make a film out of that , and the ship capsized ? .... ... not sure if that's art imitating life , or summit ...

Meanwhile , back at the NZX , XERO is up $ 3.10 on the day , a 14 % surge to $ 25.20 .. .. .which capitalizes the company at a tick under $ 3 billion .... nice numbers ..

... and youse guys thought that Auckland house prices were in bubble territory .... Ha !

by Christov | 17th Oct 13, 4:14pm 1381979655

Holy cremola GBH, it's just gone viral Xero have made a computer self aware, it's currently calibrating itself to a level of esteem deemed worthy of something just short of omnipotent.

or at least you'd think they would have had to......?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Oct 13, 4:32pm 1381980752

There's a heaping helping of perfection already baked into the XERO cake , Count ....

... well , it's performing better than Mighty River ... so far ....

by Snodgrass Thro… | 18th Oct 13, 1:33pm 1382056408

Don't you get it GBH.?We can live for days without water, weeks without food and all summer without clothes. But not one of us could survive a second without a good online accounting service.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Oct 13, 7:38pm 1381991900

I must go and have a little cry ....

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/eats/haribo-gummi-bear-boss-dies-germany-article-1.1486163

... I do hope youse guys will understand .... well , at least , those of you who admit to having emotions , and not living lives based solely upon cold hard facts ...

Sniff ... sniff ......... wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ..........

by powerdownkiwi | 17th Oct 13, 9:36pm 1381998980

One down, four billion to go, and we're down to sustainable levels.

Stop snivelling.

by Stephen Hulme | 18th Oct 13, 1:55pm 1382057715

One down, four billion to go, and we're down to sustainable levels.

Stop snivelling.

You really are offensive - I guess you will make sure you are next, so that life is sustainable?

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Oct 13, 2:01pm 1382058101

SH - it's common for those who shriek at me - as you have in the past - to shoot the messenger, out of fear of the message. I'm a wee bit past that.

As for personal existence, it wasn't my choice. The one choice I had - how many offspring to have - I limited to replacement, and made that clear decision, , for that very reason, 27 years ago. Even that was cheeky, considering where we saw it going. We knew we were indulging, and many of our contemporaries made the choice not to, for overshoot reasons.

Yes, there is some offensiveness about. Its offensive that we have offshored our desire for cheap labour. It is offensive that we have offshored the pollution from our consumption. It is offensive that we hide behind users of force, to impose those. It is offensive to future generations, the rape of finite resources and leaving of the attendant pollution, unaddressed. It is offensive to all other species and biota, that we trample, compromise, eliminate and exterminate.

That's enough for a Friday. Have a good weekend.

by Stephen Hulme | 18th Oct 13, 2:08pm 1382058518

I do not shriek - I asked you to name a date so those that consume because of their daily necessity could abstain in preparation for that which you forecast.

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Oct 13, 2:37pm 1382060229

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html

I don't know of a better - or a better researched - appraisal. The Maya interview on Nine to Noon this week is a good listen, too.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2572825/developments-in-research-into-the-ancient-maya-civilisation

Clearly, the continued chase for proxy is pointless even now. Better to have what it can be exchanged-for, while said item(s) is/are available. That's individually. I suggest you get a hold of this fellow's book (you can borrow my copy) 'Shopping our way to safety'. (Andrew Szasz - Uni of Minnesota press)

http://vimeo.com/16297857

and see the problem. It's no good individuals like me, doing the correct thing if others don't. It's got to be universal, Which is why I comment here - no point in doing the talking in my own circles - we're already there.

It's not my fault we're in this fix, I've been warning against it since '75. Done my bit. More than. The only valid action is to keep doing the warning, though. Every indicator is tracking as predicted.

This fellow is seriously smarter than me

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/can-economic-growth-last/

But seems to come to the same conclusion. I think the biggest - perhaps the only - sin, is to keep doing the unsustainable. Go well - while you can :)

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Oct 13, 2:06pm 1382058374

" Stop snivelling " .... I think that's the nicest thing you've ever said to me , thankyou .... have a Gummi Bear ....

... and for what it's worth , we totally agree with you , your personal existence wasn't our first choice either ...

Have a good weekend , Mr PDK .

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Oct 13, 2:59pm 1382061587

I've got a Yealands red in the rack, yacht-racing both days, an interesting Wwooffer staying and two more arriving.

Nearly did take myself out though, last week. Yacht-delivery down the coast. Somewhere South of Akaroa, ran into a pea-souper fog - so thick I could make finger-silhouettes on it from the laptop shining through the companion-way. . No radar. Called up Taupo Radio - any traffic in/out of Timaru? Yep, two. One coming towards us, one directly behind us, 8 miles bbehind us, same track. He's 189 metres long - shyte!.... Turned east, waited till he plotted abeam. Turned west, to dodge the other. An hour going nowhere, dodging something unseen, peering at the fog and knowing you'd get less than enough warning.

Gotta make sure you get into the living - you only get one go-round.

You too, Gummy. Go well, go Sh.......oh shit, I forgot Sarowiri. Get a bike. Better, I'll build you one. Out of recycled materials, of course. I do a doozy of a cargo bike and a better trailer, can carry 100kg of sweeties (you'll be very popular outside schools....)

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Oct 13, 1:35pm 1382056545

nah. GBH is the masticator.

by Snodgrass Thro… | 18th Oct 13, 1:51pm 1382057491

Yeah, he's a little depressed right now. I'm sure he will pull himself out of it.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 18th Oct 13, 2:01pm 1382058118

... " pull himself out of it " ????? ...... damn you John Key , you & your GCSB spies .......

I wonder if the pictures will turn up on Facebook ?

by powerdownkiwi | 18th Oct 13, 2:04pm 1382058245

Would it go viral, is the bigger worry