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90 seconds at 9 am: Good US data but markets yawn; oil refiners slide; tide turns in Indonesia; end nigh for Aussie carmakers; Fonterra stalks AU dairy; NZ$1 = US$0.827 TWI = 76.6

90 seconds at 9 am: Good US data but markets yawn; oil refiners slide; tide turns in Indonesia; end nigh for Aussie carmakers; Fonterra stalks AU dairy; NZ$1 = US$0.827 TWI = 76.6

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news of markets in a holding pattern.

In the US, despite a larger than expected decrease in the number of people making initial unemployment benefit claims, markets are tracking sideways.

Gold and oil prices are lower, and yields on benchmark UST 10yr bonds are marginally higher at 2.56%.

Of special note however, the Chicago PMI zoomed higher with an amazingly strong result.

And in an interesting aside, the oil majors are taking a hit as margins slide as demand for their refined products falls away. Both Exxon and Shell are seeing profits slide.

On the other side of the world, in Indonesia, things are not so rosy with their Government warning of a slowing outlook.

Fortunately, China's recent credit crunch seems to be waning as their central bank pumps in more liquidity.

In Australia, they are preparing for the end of car manufacturing there. A number of Ministers in the new government think it is inevitable, and the Industry Minister is confirming - from Toyota in Tokyo - that without more subsidies, the manufacturers will close up shop. It will be a difficult and angry transition when it comes, and that seems soon now. A number of Kiwi manufacturers will be affected too.

Staying in Australia, Fonterra is thought to be on the prowl for 10% of Bega Cheese, as the Aussie dairy industry  braces for a series of painful ownership realignments. Bega is currently in a bidding battle for for a rival's business. (Update: Fonterra has confirmed this morning it has bought 6% - so far.)

The NZ dollar starts today at 82.7 USc, 87.3 AUc, and the TWI was at 76.6.

The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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8 Comments

Prowl ? Frontera do not prowl  Mr Chaston, they stomp about the place much as a bull wearing a school bell for a necktie.

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No mention of these problems for Danone in your link Aj.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-14/danone-s-dumex-to-take-disciplinary-action-amid-china-claims.html Fonterra's issue was rather convenient  for Danone.  ;-)

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"Consumer price inflation (CPI) plunged from 1.1pc to 0.7pc, the lowest since the financial crash in 2008-2009. “This is a massive downward surprise,”

Uh, they go to austerity and cutting Public costs/spending which is on top of the private sectors re-trenching and then they are surprised when not only do they not get recovery but also they get downturns?

They live in la la land...and are happy to stay there.

regards

 

 

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Thanks AJ - good link.

It would be good for NZ to have a discussion on deflation and its effects.

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How about popping over to the EU.

"The shock data came as EMU-wide unemployment jumped to a record 12.2pc in September, with a further 74,000 people losing their jobs. Youth jobless rates reached 40.2pc in Italy, 57.6pc in Greece and 56.6pc in Spain."

12.2% with youth un-employed at 40%+? and over 1/2 in some countries?

"The latest inflation data show Italy’s CPI rate fell by 0.3pc in both September and October, despite a rise in VAT taxes that should have pushed it higher.

Over the past three months, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia and Latvia have all seen price falls once extra taxes are stripped out. It is a similar pattern in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic, with Poland and Denmark close behind. The entire region risks sliding into a deflation trap if recovery falters."

8><----

"Morgan Stanley said the ECB must take immediate and pre-emptive action to head off he risk of full-blown deflation by next year."

um what recovery? 

regards

PS thanks to Andrewj...

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BDI down 25% in a very short period...

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart

blowing away its "gains" just as fast....

 

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