Greeks agree deal, prepare plan; PMI's expand in the US, Europe and Japan; Lee Kwan Yew in intensive care; UST 10yr yields rise; NZ$1 = 75.2 USc, TWI = 78.4

Here's my summary of the key issues from over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news on the Greek-EU negotiations.

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras has "declared victory" after agreeing a conditional financial rescue deal with Europe and despite making big concessions to avert a banking collapse within days.

His celebration may be short-lived however. He has agreed to show how Greece will adjust to meet its debt obligations. He's got till tonight to present his plan. His foreign supporters think he has caved in and doubt he can deliver what he has claimed. It will not be long before similar sentiment is expressed in Athens. Winning his election with illusions of "money for the people" was the easy part. Dealing with the Northern European creditors is something very much harder.

Separately, a whole set of advance manufacturing and other purchasing manager indexes were out over the weekend and they told a reasonably upbeat story.

Strong US manufacturing output is being "sustained in February" with an expansion that has been going on since late 2009.

Eurozone growth hit a seven-month high and job creation was at its fastest level since 2011. True, that is not a high bar and is driven by Germany, but you may be surprised to learn that France is now contributing to growth - not from its factory sector but from its services sector.

Japan also put in another solid growth performance in February.

China is still on their Spring Festival holiday shutdown so there is very little economic news from the world's second largest economy. The completeness of their shutdown is impressive; actual output usually drops more than 50% in the first quarter because of it.

We should also note that Lee Kwan Yew, the founding father of modern Singapore, is in intensive care with severe pneumonia. He has produced a giant legacy.

The UST 10yr yield rose further to 2.12% in New York on Friday, recovering the up trend after that temporary adjustment from the FOMC minutes. It is likely that wholesale rates will track the same way in today's local markets. We start today with our swap rates for terms 3 - 10 years at their highest levels in more than a month.

The crude oil price, however, starts the week lower at US$50/barrel with Brent crude up a tick at US$60/barrel.

The gold price starts at US$1,199oz. Russia is reported to have stopped buying.

The New Zealand dollar has pretty much flat-lined since Tuesday, and should open at 75.2 USc, at 95.9 AUc, and the TWI is at 78.4.

If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »