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US durable goods orders fall; Greece caught short; RBA worried about commercial property; 'rigged remuneration'; yields lower; commodity prices higher; NZ$1 = 76.1 USc, TWI = 80.4

US durable goods orders fall; Greece caught short; RBA worried about commercial property; 'rigged remuneration'; yields lower; commodity prices higher; NZ$1 = 76.1 USc, TWI = 80.4

Here's my summary of the key issues from overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of worries about commercial property in Australia.

But first, orders for American durable goods unexpectedly dropped in February as manufacturers absorbed the problems of a rising dollar and falling energy production. The weakness in February was widespread, with weaker demand for commercial aircraft, cars and machinery. This data points to weaker Q1 GDP growth than markets had assumed. Stocks on Wall Street are down on the news.

But going the other way, applications for US home loans rose last week as interest rates dropped to their lowest level since February. They rose +9.5% compared to the same period a week ago and rose +3% from the same period a year ago.

In Greece, their crisis has hit a severe bump in the road. Money the Greek government was counting on is no longer available. That means they will now run out of cash on April 9, far earlier than thought just a few days ago.

In Australia, the RBA issued its Financial Stability review. Among other things, it is worried about the impact of QE on their markets. Easy monetary policy globally is spurring demand in Australia's commercial property sector, even as vacancies climb and rents fall, raising risks of a future price slump they say.

And there has been another call in Australia to deal with the dodgy sales practices particularly in the insurance industry. A key figure there has claimed that Australia's financial advice industry is rigged with hazardous remuneration structures that fuel a sales culture among planners - perpetuating distrust among consumers burnt by questionable 'advice'.

In New York, the UST 10yr yields dropped further overnight to 1.89%. The New Zealand swap curve moved lower and flatter yesterday in a trend that caught up with some of the recent Wall Street yields falls.

The crude oil price is higher today at US$49/barrel and Brent crude is at $56 a barrel.

The gold price is up again to US$1,199/oz.

The New Zealand dollar was pretty much unchanged overnight at 76.1 US¢, it is at 97.1 AU¢, and the TWI is at 80.4.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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6 Comments

In Australia, the RBA issued its Financial Stability review. Among other things, it is worried about the impact of QE on their markets. Easy monetary policy globally is spurring demand in Australia's commercial property sector, even as vacancies climb and rents fall, raising risks of a future price slump they say.

 

This pretty much sums up the higher order effects... the unintended consequences... of QEing across the world.... 

1/ asset prices go up... in spite of the fundamentals...

2/  Which sets up a future price slump...???  ... or not...??    ( depends on how high prices go and how much debt/credit growth is involved in the boom )

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And the resultant elephant in the room stopping the Fed from hiking is shadow banking. Read more:https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/26802088/shadow-banking-morphs-and-gr…  and more  

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dp

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Aussie commercial property has always been overvalued , its a very controlled market with supply being restricted by rigid zoning laws, and vested interests who will go the highest court to prevent more re-zoining of land for commercial use  .

 

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" Sell in May and go away " is a good rule to follow especially if Greece defaults in April , we should all take our profits from the bull run in equities , and go away for a holiday

 

 

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Oil shock. "Iran has between 7 million and 17 million barrels at sea and on land, said the officials. They cited estimates based on satellite photographs and other evidence.

EA Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. in London, which has been monitoring Iranian oil storage since 2009, estimates the country has 34.5 million barrels aboard tankers in the Persian Gulf."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-25/iran-has-a-little-sur…

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