Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research
During July support for National fell 6.5% to 43% now trailing a potential Labour/Greens alliance 45% (up 6%) for the first time in over a year – since May 2014, according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.
If a NZ Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the centrist NZ First would be in a position to determine New Zealand’s next Government.
Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party up 0.5% to 1.5% while support for Act NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).
Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 32% (up 6% to the highest since March 2014), Greens 13% (unchanged) and NZ First 7% (up 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (up 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1.5% (down 0.5%).
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to 118pts (down 17.5pts) in July. A slim majority of NZ electors 51% (down 11.5%) now say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 33% (up 6%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. Despite this steep fall New Zealand Government Confidence is still substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week was at only 90.5pts.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“A potential Labour/Greens alliance 45% (up 6% since June) has overtaken National 43% (down 6.5%) for the first time since last year’s New Zealand Election. Support for Labour is now 32% (up 6%) – the smallest gap between National and Labour for over a year since March 2014.
“Other indicators are also negative for Prime Minister John Key. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell steeply in July – now at 118 (down 17.5pts) its lowest since September 2013 while ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating fell to 113.9 in July – the lowest since October 2012. Consumer Confidence has now fallen for three straight months.
“A slowing New Zealand economy (New Zealand’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in the March Quarter 2015 – the slowest New Zealand growth in two years) is presenting Prime Minister Key with his biggest challenge since coming to office in 2008. A special qualitative and quantitative survey conducted by Roy Morgan Research released last week found New Zealanders consider Economic issues (44%) the biggest problems facing New Zealand. Poverty/ The gap between the rich and the poor/ Imbalance of wealth (21%) and Housing shortage/ Housing affordability (14%) were the two single largest issues New Zealanders are facing in June 2015.
“The recent economic uncertainty from the Eurozone (Greece) and New Zealand’s largest export destination – China – are providing challenges to New Zealand’s economic strength of recent years. The uncertainty has contributed to the continuing fall in the New Zealand Dollar – now at a six-year low of 65.2 US cents today, down 12 cents (15.5%) since late April. In particular, the price of a tonne of whole milk powder has dropped to $US1,848 a tonne this week – down from $US 3,273 in February (a decline of $1,425 or a massive 43.5%). Incredibly, dairy exports account for around 30% of all New Zealand’s merchandise exports.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 886 electors in July 2015. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
68 Comments
Do-nothing? Their housing Ponzi is the only thing keeping us from recession - mind you without it we could have had lower rates and a lower dollar a lot earlier and we mightn't be in the pickle we are in. As the downturn hits it won't be a question of how we house everyone - it will be how we provide employment. Although with all these 20 year old students from overseas being able to buy million dollar houses perhaps that's a non issue.
Implode ?? - remember Judith is ready to bring all her charms to the rescue of NZ when the PM of Parnell rides off into the sunset with all of NZ saying "who was that masked man?"
Be careful what you are wishing for. Labour / Greens would kick-start the economy by tax-and-waste policies plus opening the flood gates for so-called refugees as they had announced in their last election program. And of course they would get into a lot of new debt.
People keen on competing with Greece should vote Labour / Greens.
National are hardly examples of prudent spending. 400M worth of gambling concessions and prime CBD land given away for a white elephant convention centre. Billions spent on unnecessarily grand roading projects that consistently do not deliver the claimed benefits because people simply don't drive as much as they used to.
Great interview on The Nation this weekend;
http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/thenation/interview-winston-peters-20150…
I have been saying for a while that national could lose the next election. not labour could win it but because national does not have enough partners , only act and PD gifted one seat each they only had to lose 5 % support and they were stuffed.
no good calling on WP now john he hasn't forgotten.
a lot of aucklanders are PO about the high immigration and out of control housing market and talking down to them that's its only supply that's the problem has not cut it.
even the labourer on the building site knows Demand is too high and needs to be corrected so supply can catch up so nationals do nothing attitude has got people angry.
JK talked about not being a complacent third term party then did just that,
not that I am surprised, I am surprised he has not been rolled but my guess is if the polls stay where they are he will go before the next election, his pride will not let him fight a losing election campaign
This is true. Journalism in New Zealand is abysmal. The coverage of the Chinese speculator invasion makes me want to puke. Nothing from any statistical experts discussing the validity of the methodology. Nothing barely even explaining the weighting given to names. Just endless repeats of poor little Chinese person with hurt feelings.
At least some of the populace are starting to wake up to the fact that this government are human waste.
Who the heck has been advising the Ministers? If you give them the benefit of doubt that they truly think the number of foreigners buying Auckland houses is low....who advises them?? Treasury? LINZ? MBIE?? There are millions of words produced daily by the bureaucracy no one, no matter how good you are, you will not be able to keep up....so have the persons doing the advising on the millions plus words actually doing their job and with the necessary honesty and integrity???
I have had to have meetings with bureaucrats who displayed outright rudeness, arrogance and complete disrespect for the Minister in charge of the particular areas.......if they are like this with strangers behind the Ministers backs what else do they do behind their backs? They fact is when these bureaucrats twist the English language to interpret something a certain way then carry on down the track they want rather than what the Minister and/or legislation intended we know we have problems.
Strewth
have you looked at the most common names in the Auckland electoral roll?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=1…
Auckland has changed - dramatically - in a short space of time
To quote Kate from 23/06/2015
..... most foreign students hope to stay in NZ long term. I teach a number of them too. They are good young people, with hopes and dreams to live in a genuinely fair and democratic society.. one with a social welfare system, one which is more civil, less populated and less polluted than where they come from. The problem is, our society is becoming more like where they are from at an alarmingly rapid pace
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/76091/population-growth-migration-se…
This - 100% pure shite
http://www.boredpanda.com/pollution-china/
Created by the clever middle class entrepreneurs who are now cashed up and looking for new green fields to conquer (?).
Boatman is right here ......... observing the latest nonsense from the Pollsters .
Polling Companies are a bit like Ratings Agencies , they need news to stay in business and will make it up as they go along .
The fact remains that until Labour ditch the Capital Gains tax idea , they are in the bush ,its the most insidious form of resentment tax on earth .
"It now takes about 50 years to pay off the average Auckland home."
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/business/now-50-years-to-pay-off-median…
So the tax and spend financially illiterate people are growing in numbers.......
Key and National have made mistakes - and not sitting on top of Council planners is one of those mistakes.....I would suggest that they should under urgency abandon the RMA, and if necessary strengthen the Criminal Act to ensure polluters face criminal charges!!
It is high time every journalist in the country started reporting both sides of the debate in NZ....it is easy as hell to run around and find someone who is not doing as well as the average person and write stories of how poverty, homelessness and inequality are posing a massive problem to NZ.......where is the counter-balance to these stories.......the stories where it is the business people (not the corporates they are in a league of their own) the sole operators the SME' types who are working away furiously and completing tasks unpaid like all tax collections services that they are legally obligated to complete, or the other jobs like being fully responsible for all health and safety, or completing the myriad of other regulatory requirements enforced upon them by the financially illiterate who always have high expectations of others but never themselves.......where are the photos of the small business owner sitting in the pokey office completing GST paperwork, PAYE, preparing annual accounts for accountant??? Where are the photos of the accountancy bills and the hours that must be worked to cover all these costs loaded onto them by the State via the left leaning voters???? What about the sole operator having to find work, deal with bad contracts, deal with bad debts, deal with idiot bureaucrats who don't know the legislation they are administering, who are trying to implement internal policies that breach the legislation they are administering, and are often on power trips and have time on their side so delay everything, they use up maximum days finding other problems and then start the count down of time once more. You never see pictures of the stressed people doing everything within their power to make something work....WHY?..........the left illiterate know they can hang off the coat tails and don't give a toss about the inequality they themselves have created!!!
We only ever hear one side of the inequality debate in NZ !!!!! If you are a sole operator or an SME you are essentially a State slave who the left manipulate at length all so they can feed their ideals!!
How often do we hear about the Green co-leader and her story of how she was kindly assisted through the system and how every kiwi deserves a hand-up like she got.....where is the counter story of e.g. the sole operator who had a skill. idea, widget etc who worked his butt off, borrowed from the bank, mortgaged his/her house and got no handout but in the end paid the taxes that funded the likes of the Greens co-leader???? What have the people who have been helped up the chain actually ever put back into the system....what product did they ever invent and export, how many jobs did they create along the way??? How many end up in jobs where they just suck more out of the system via unproductive endeavour ???
I think you might be posting on the wrong site - the one you want is over here: http://www.nbr.co.nz/
don't you mean this one
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/70342943/dan-carter-sonny…
Truth 35% of People on welfare.
Dairy farming industry about to implode with debt.
Govt still borrowing as fast s it can and still showing an operating cash loss after 7/8 years.
If we continue to with neo liberalism we can expect to reach Greece position within 10 years.
The Greece Drama is a good example of what happens when a Govt allows it's country and people to become indebted.
The Truth is the Govt and it's people of Greece lost control of their country.
Germany now control Greece and the Euro through various mechanisms.
The Truth is that the body providing debt to various countries and entities is not only slowly controlling such entities but will eventually poison them.
A good time shall be had today but death will follow.
Last Time I checked it was the Greeks calling the shots. "If you don't give us more money, we'll default on what you already gave us". Last time I checked Greece hadn't sold any of it's public assets to foreigner investors yet. (unlike NZ which hocked off some of it's silverware/crown jewels).
The Germans have always controlled the Euro.
What happened in Greece was clear enough if the ground roots is studied.
Plenty of public spending was happening. People in some cities were getting wealthy. Rural and provincial areas had little government and were considered backward and low value.
In NZ we had dairy, wool, fruit, meat incomes that supplied a little income to rural and provincal areas. The aparagus and rural production of Greece got globalised to other more favoured countries.
But by then families wanted to get members working in government, not doing backbreaking work in rural areas or less classy not-head-office work in provincial areas.
Government provide good wages, guaranteed pension scheme, and stable work prospects, and was socially "nice" (clean, good breaks, nice lunches, shiny shoes, and nice clothes).
And it meant people could demand more from their State services, and that enabled more people to be hired to perform these things for the State - who cares if SME were complaining or collapsing (if they had a friend or family member in the government they could usually ask a favour to get the paperwork lost or at least delayed...paid to have friends in government). And that meant everyone wanted the government to get bigger.
But how was it paid for? In the Greek tradition - tomorrow.
They have a huge government burden, and when they promised austerity the government borrowed as normal to pay it's bills and they stopped the private sector borrowing...the private sector who were supposed to be supporting everything.
It's not when the government allow their country to become indebted, it's when government doesn't admit that it's a business just like every other business or a family household - that one day it too must face its debts, and that means having it's house in order, and its suppliers in good form. Which means government has to learn to spend within it's means not within it's desires.
-
Just realised most employees or gov types probably dfont understand what that actually means.
It means the "household" wage earner must be enabled to be more productive (that is the private sector, especially the workers), and the dependents (those who receive benefit or allowances from the wage - that is anything paid from taxes, including consultants and government salaries and projects) much be done more cheaply or veto'd, to ensure the wage earner isn't overburdened, and that the wage goes further.
Having fastest internet, nicest house, biggest mortgage doesn't get family NZ in better shape.
you can either rush forwards until the credit correction wipes everyone out, or start government and public acting responsibly so the heat slows gradually, until near productivity "cash buying" is achieved and "family" credit can be properly managed.
Note that carefully managed _local_ borrowing, stays _inside_ the country and community as do the profits and growth from those profits. External borrowings might be bigger but it is critically they are quickly deleveraged as the profit is removed from local spending/economy.
"Good debt" is when the profits pay back the principal and interest (limited local borrowing)
"Bad debt" is when the profits go outside the person, business, or country thus "consuming" the value from the investment. Therefore critical government is careful to deleverage borrowings or it will constantly be drained to outside interest like a consumer with a credit problem.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=114…
"He also cited data showing housing was "substantially more affordable" across the country since National came into power in 2008."
out of touch? spin? lies? statistics?
not from what I've seen in semi-rural towns. look again in 3 months to see the trend. how many days orders do most of your towns businesses have vs the last 5 years?
they're more affordable than auckland, and more affordable than the average due to auckland in the figures, but vs income no, as mean disposable income is lower in those areas. (but better according to median national income; again, Auckland)
Fair dinkum cuz .. Fair go .. What is the New Zealand way?
Nick Smith says:- We are not going to have a cheap ill-informed debate targeting one ethnic group. That's not fair. That's not the New Zealand way
What's fair? Everyone playing by the same rules? What rules?
I've said this before - require all new imports to build a brand new house somewhere outside the CBD, no closer to the AKL CBD than 30 kms, they have to retain ownership for at least two bright-line years, then they can sell out, take a loss, and then move to where they want to - shucks, they might even stay where they build
Nick Smith says "we don't want to know how many offshore non-NZers are buying our houses"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=114…
National apparently already knows from advice.
No register of offshore buyers.
The way I heard it, Nick Smith pretty much said he did not want NZers to know who is buying the houses. That will have almost the same effect as us finding out how much offshore buying there is going on. I am also sure that if he was sure it was minimal he'd be falling all over himself to prove it.
Pressure needs ratcheting up
Matthew Hooton outlines Keys tactic of non-response to the foreign ownership issue in NBR
http://www.nbr.co.nz
Wakey, wakey - he doesn't want it fixed.
(He would be looking at the demand side of the equation if he did)
Gormless Smitty is just the sacrificial. Judith was too clever to accept although she was tempted by all the prospective fact finding trips she could have had to do to China to meet her future shall we say "clients" (and hubbies clients could also be visited of course)
I'll make the comment that the true data is available and could be collated within a matter of weeks.
Firstly, from Linz get all properties where sales have been completed in the last 2 years in Auckland. Remove from the data any that have been resold since.
Check the current billing address for rates from Auckland Council against the physical address. Exclude properties where the billing and actual address is the same.
For the remaining properties, if the billing address is off shore - count those. If the billing address is in NZ, check the owner of the billing address, if it is the same as the owner of the property in Auckland, then most likely this is a local owner.
For the remaining (those who use managers or proxies to look after their rates bills), send a Statistics NZ request for information to confirm the status of the owner (it is an offence not to comply with a Stats NZ request). Alternatively just cross reference with the electoral rolls, or drivers licence records or NZ Passport records to further reduce the number of property owners needing asked directly.
That is all relatively easy with current data capabilities.
The alternative is to just take a random sample of those say 50,000 property sales.
so then minister smith is either telling porkies, or the officials are not handing over the info, or a combination of the above.
either way the people in Auckland can see with their own eyes what is happening and it has got past tipping point where even the most one eyed national supporter is having trouble supporting their policies
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.