Here's my summary of the key events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of more weak data out of China.
But first, this is the week that the US Fed will issue its latest assessment - and all eyes are on whether it will hike rates. It has signaled that a hike is on the table although markets are very unsure if it will be this upcoming meeting or a later one this year. We will know on Friday morning.
The problem for the Fed is that if it really wants to hike, it has to account for a substantial lag time before its actions take effect. The longer it delays, the stronger its labour markets get and wage rises are already pushing the upper end of its inflation goals. These seem odd things to note after nearly a decade of non-existent inflationary pressure. The Fed will be well aware that the past is no indication of what may happen in the future.
The Chinese slowdown is one of the reasons things may get delayed however. Data out over the weekend showed that industrial production came in much lower than expected in August, even though it was marginally better than in July. Investment levels also disappointed.
Concerns about China are also core to the latest BIS assessment of the world's banking systems.
We will have some important news locally as well. On Wednesday we get the results of the next dairy auction. Dairy futures pricing suggests another positive improvement.
The same day the second quarter current account data will be out. This does not move markets the way it used to but a worsening trend is anticipated, to -3.8% of GDP.
And on Thursday, the economic growth number will be out for the June quarter. A year-on-year level of +3% is expected, somewhat better than most of our trading partners - except the US and China of course.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield benchmark ended Friday lower, now at 2.19%.
The US benchmark oil price is also lower, now at US$45/barrel and the Brent benchmark is at US$48/barrel. North American rig counts continue their fall and some analysts are talking a US$20/barrel oil price.
The gold price is down as well, now down to US$1,104/oz.
The New Zealand dollar starts the week at its lowest overall level since December 2011, now at 63.2 US¢, at 89.1 AU¢, and 55.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 67.5.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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