A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; retail sales strong, inflation expectations weak, Westpac refunds fees, BNZ dairy provisions up, swaps higher again, NZD falls

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There were no changes today. But we got an inkling there may be some tomorrow.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to these either.

NO SLOWDOWN HERE
Retail sales in the December quarter came in a little stronger than some were expecting. The $21.8 bln in the December 2015 quarter was +4.4% more than in the same quarter a year ago. If you remove the price effects, the rise is +5.3%. We got a sense this data would be good after the electronic card data was revised higher. Infometrics said that with strong net migration inflows and surging tourist arrivals boosting customer numbers, falling petrol prices making consumers feel wealthier, and retail price growth staying low, there is scope for the volume of retail sales to keep rising robustly through 2016.

LESS IS MORE ?
The RBNZ's survey of inflation expectations shows Kiwis are lowering their sights faster than expected. Today's survey shows 2 year inflation expectations to run at 1.63%, down from 1.85% three months ago. A year ago the number was 1.80%; two years ago it was 2.33%. Today's number is the lowest in this series since 1994. The currency fell on the release of this data.

BNZ DAIRY LOANS PUSH UP NAB BAD & DOUBTFUL DEBTS
BNZ's parent, National Australia Bank, says NZ dairy loans have pushed up its bad and doubtful debts. NAB says its ratio of 90 plus days past due and gross impaired assets to gross loans and acceptances was 0.68% at 31 December 2015, up from 0.63% at 30 September 2015. The increase stems from the inclusion of NZ$420 mln of NZ dairy loans as impaired assets, but with no loss currently expected, NAB said. NAB's unaudited cash earnings for continuing operations rose +8% in the December quarter to A$1.7 bln.

FITCH AFFIRMS CREDIT RATINGS ON BIG 4 NZ BANKS
Fitch has affirmed its long-term credit ratings on the big four NZ banks - ANZ, ASB, BNZ and Westpac - at AA- with stable outlooks. However, Fitch does expect deterioration in asset quality largely due to low global dairy prices. It also said risks in mortgage books appear adequately managed. The credit rating agency also points out the four banks have some of the widest net interest margins and most efficient cost-management relative to international peers. But Fitch also cautions that New Zealand's household debt/disposable income ratio has risen to 159%, making households susceptible to higher unemployment and/or interest rates.

WESTPAC TO REPAY $4 MLN
The Commerce Commission says it and the Financial Markets Authority have reached a settlement with Westpac NZ that'll see the bank repay more than $4 mln to some 108,000 customers (and ex-customers) who were overcharged debit card fees when withdrawing money from Westpac ATMs in Australia. The settlement comes after Westpac self-reported a potential breach of the Fair Trading Act to the regulators in late 2014. There's more detail here.

MASTERCARD TOUTS GROWTH OF CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
MasterCard says a survey it does suggests the number of New Zealanders using contactless payments has risen strongly. Their survey, conducted in November last year, showed 66% of respondents used contactless payments, up from 44% in the same survey a year earlier. The company says it surveyed 1,007 people online using "a nationwide sampling framework".

JURY OUT
Very early tomorrow morning we will get the next GlobalDairyTrade auction results. While some seasoned observers are expecting a fall by as much as -10%, the derivatives market actually firmed a little today.

WHOLESALE RATES RISE, STEEPEN AGAIN
NZ swap rates were +1 to +4 bps higher again today. The trend was for an additional steepening. However, after the RBNZ data these was a sharp fall back. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.60%.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The narrow range-trading for the Kiwi dollar continued today - that is until the inflation expectations results were posted. It is now down to 66.2 USc, 92.4 AUc and the TWI-5 is now at 70.7, although to be fair it is still in the range, just at the lower end of it. Check our real-time charts here.

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