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Fed President talks up possibility of rate hike as soon as April; US housing market loses steam; Alibaba poised to dwarf Walmart; IMF calls for transparency from PBoC; UST 10yr yield 1.91%; oil up, gold down; NZ$1 = 67.6 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.0

Fed President talks up possibility of rate hike as soon as April; US housing market loses steam; Alibaba poised to dwarf Walmart; IMF calls for transparency from PBoC; UST 10yr yield 1.91%; oil up, gold down; NZ$1 = 67.6 US¢, TWI-5 = 71.0

Here's my summary of the key events from overnight that affect New Zealand.

Existing home sales in the US have fizzled in February after increasing to their highest annual rate in six months. The National Association of Realtors reports sales dropped 7.1% over the month. Yet they were still 2.2% higher than a year ago. The median house price was also up 4.4% over the year to $210,800. ​The Association says demand is solid, but house prices and rents are outpacing wages. Anxiety about the health of the economy is also holding back a segment of would-be buyers. 

The US may be in for a rate hike as early as next month. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has come out saying there's enough momentum in the US economy to justify a hike at one of the Fed's coming meetings. He says domestic consumption and employment are looking good, despite uncertainties in the global economy. He maintains the Fed was sitting tight at its meeting last week, as it was waiting for some of the volatility in the global financial market to settle.  

Upbeat on the US's inflation outlook, two other non-voting Fed officials have also flagged potential near-term rate rises. Yet their views appear at odds with that of Fed Chair, Janet Yellen.

Alibaba could overtake Walmart to become the world's largest retail network. The Chinese e-commerce giant has just announced its transaction volumes have hit 3 trillion yuan - or US$463 billion. Its gross merchandise volume has tripled since 2012, and grown by nearly 50% since last year. We will find out exactly how it stacks up against Walmart once reporting for the end of the financial year is done.

The International Monetary Fund is pushing China to disclose data that could shed light on more opaque methods of intervention in the yuan's exchange rate. According to the Wall Street Journal, the IMF is seeking data on the People's Bank of China's total holdings of forwards and futures, a step that would be in line with the nation's pledge last year to adhere to IMF disclosure standards amid efforts to win reserve-currency status for the yuan. Analysts have pointed to data in recent months showing a rise in holdings of forwards, suggesting it's part of a strategy to support the yuan without immediately draining China's foreign-exchange reserves. 

In New York the benchmark UST 10yr yield has inched up today to 1.91%. 

The US crude oil price is holding its ground at US$40/bbl, while Brent remains just over US$41/barrel. Prices have been briefly buoyed by data showing a drawdown in supply from an Oklahoma delivery hub. Yet the market's upside is limited by worries US drillers will ramp up output again.

The gold price has slipped back a little to US$1,247/oz.

The NZ dollar has weakened slightly overnight. It's at 67.6 US¢, 89.1 AU¢ and 60.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is lower at 71.0. 

If you'd like to catch up with all the local changes from yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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4 Comments

The US may be in for a rate hike as early as next month.

Talk is cheap, but not the present value today of unaccounted for future pension liabilities discounted by NIRP/ZIRP type factors. US Social Security blowback is in already in play for those hoping beyond all hope matters would remain the same.

Global Government Debt Is Actually Triple What We Thought, Thanks to Pensions

You’ve heard it said that the government giveth and the government taketh away. It’s happening again. This time retirement dollars for couples are being taken.

With the passage of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 Congress prohibited spouses from coordinating Social Security Benefits. Now, Americans on the brink of retirement are scrambling to see how much damage was done to their golden years. Read more

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That 'The coming pension crisis' report was prepared by Citigroup. Would you trust anything from them?

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Do I trust you to have enough knowledge to make that claim? - as of this moment Citigroup remains a US primary dealer.

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