90 seconds at 9 am: RBA open to vigorous rate cuts

Terrorist attacks boost "safe havens"; RBA Governor's confidence in economy hikes AUD; US manufacturing down; US house prices up; UST 10yr yield 1.90%; oil & gold up; NZ$1 = 67.4 US¢, TWI-5 = 70.9

23rd Mar 16, 8:05am by Jenée Tibshraeny

Here's my summary of the key events from overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of traditional "safe haven" markets firming following last night's terrorist attacks on the Brussels airport and a train station. Demand for gold and government bonds has risen in the wake of the explosions, which killed at least 34 people. While European markets have fallen, US stock indexes haven't been shaken.

Australia's Reserve Bank Governor has signalled he's open to dropping the bank's cash rate well below its current 2% mark. In a speech made to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission annual forum yesterday, Governor Glenn Stevens said Australia had "more room to ease monetary and fiscal policy" than most other countries, as it's better placed than most of the world to resist an economic shock. He indicated his comfort with the government running up more debt if it has to, to ward off a recession.

In other news, US manufacturing growth has been lower than expected in March. The flash Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is up from the 28-month low reached in February, yet the rise is one of the weakest seen over the past two-and-a-half years. Output, new business and employment growth increased at a slightly faster pace than in February, while factory gate prices dropped off the back of subdued demand conditions.

Other data out of the US overnight shows house prices crept up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in January. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reports prices rose 6% compared to January last year. As we reported yesterday, higher prices have contributed to lower sale rates.

In New York the benchmark UST 10yr yield is pretty stable at 1.90%.

The US crude oil price has inched up today to just above US$41/bbl, while Brent is just under US$42/bbl.

The gold price has risen overnight to US$1,252/oz.

The RBA Governor's comments have seen the NZ dollar weaken substancially overnight to 88.5 AU¢. The dollar has also slid back to 67.4 US¢. It remains at 60.1 euro cents. The TWI-5 is slightly lower at 70.9.

If you'd like to catch up with all the local changes from yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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46 Comments

by @tony | 23rd Mar 16, 8:22am 1458674569

Affects NZ...

Enjoy your life...
Spend more time with your loved ones and find the time to do what you want to do...

Watch...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6uEhYtlwjs
(Classic Video segment at 4:11 if you have the attention span of a goldfish)

Listen...
http://embed.wbur.org/player/hereandnow/2016/03/21/running-out-of-words…

North Pole melts in winter...
http://inhabitat.com/storm-unfreezes-north-pole-causing-temps-50-degree…

by MortgageBelt | 23rd Mar 16, 8:23am 1458674635

Meanwhile NZ continues its massive immigration programme 70k, and massive international student programme 100+k. Belgium & France? That kind of thing will never affect NZ.

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 10:29am 1458682151

Even massive immigration is OK, if the people coming are of some kind of use to society and if they are not from countries and communities known to harbour an overproportional number of security threats.

by Andrewj | 23rd Mar 16, 8:43am 1458675810

It wasn't too long ago that Valeant Pharmaceuticals was a little-known name outside of the drug industry -- and even in it. A series of large, debt-charged acquisitions, beginning with a Canadian tax-inversion deal in 2010, changed that. CEO Mike Pearson quickly turned Valeant into one of the most fascinating companies in pharma, setting a new bar for the industry as far as growth went. As it turns out, though, Valeant's strategy was unsustainable and Pearson's vision has mostly failed. So now, other pharmaceutical executives can take a breather.
The Rise and Fall
Valeant couldn't sustain its momentum. Once the industry's outperformer, its stock price has dropped about 90 percent in the past six months.

Gross: Valeant biz model was based on leverage and fincl. engineering. At the extreme it mirrors global monetary policy and their economies.
— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-22/bill-gross-collapse-valeant-pr…

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 9:49am 1458679744

Is NZ considered a "safe haven" in social terms? Little do they know that NZ's Muslim community is already 50000 strong and the fastest growing in safe Kiwiland. And JK just added 750 Syrians, his other hobby apart from the bath towel flag. Doesn't sound like much of a safe haven to me, unless the loon parties are removed from power quickly and rationality enters the immigration debate.

Watching in disbelief how Merkel and her EU cronies are destablizing Europe, we do not want Islamist terrorism here. And the equation, sorry for the reality shock, goes that the fewer Muslims the lower the likelihood of Muslim radicals.

Talking of Merkel-inspired instability in Europe, can we expect a wave of capital flight from the EU soon with rich Europeans setting up house in a place where they feel they have a better chance of not being blown to bits?

by kiwimm | 23rd Mar 16, 10:07am 1458680846

Safe haven? The Christchurch Earthquake killed 1000 times more people as a percentage of population compared to the terrorist attacks.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 10:11am 1458681084

Looks to be nothing compared to the coming issues caused by Peak oil and CC. Some crazy numbers being talked about for deaths due to CC....

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 10:23am 1458681826

Oh, in that case we really need to crack down on the earthquakes population ...

The "100% Pure Housing Unaffordability" campaign is just working wonders overseas. People really believe that NZ is some kind of paradise. And now that the security situation in Europe is becoming more unstable by the day plus the idiotic EU having oursourced immigration policy to the Turkish sultan, a lot of people have Oz and NZ on the radar. FHBs better get their foot in the door before monied EU refugees flood in.

by JimboJones | 23rd Mar 16, 10:23am 1458681795

And more people were probably killed on the roads in Belgium this month than by terrorist attacks. Your fears are unfounded

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 10:25am 1458681917

Tell that the relatives of the killed and the people who were maimed and injured today. Ah, stop complaining, statistically speaking it could have just as well been a car accident. Bs artists welcome.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 10:34am 1458682475

and the Rainbow warrior?

So by your racist logic we should ban all french ppl.

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 10:56am 1458683811

Are we down to name calling again? And since when does Islam indicate a race?

Of course the New Zealand government can ban all French people, if it so choses, e.g. due to decades of consistent terrorism issues with French people. The New Zealand govt did imprison anyone of German, Japanese or Italian origins during the world wars e.g. on Somes Island and - to my knowledge - never apologized for it.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 11:14am 1458684888

Ok then ban all christians, afterall one of them actually has committed a terrorist attack in NZ.

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 11:20am 1458685215

One occurence is different from a pattern of occurences.

But there is no sense discussing with you, as you are not open to rational arguments. Just wait until one day maybe you or someone you care for is affected by Islamist terror. Then you can tell yourself that theoretically it could have alse been a Frenchman. I hope it will help you.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 11:23am 1458685399

I am not open to rational arguments? LOL. This is not rational on your part but emotional.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 11:45am 1458686745

Do you really think this was a one off? I mean if a Govn is prepared to kill innocent ppl on a foreign soil once do you really think its a unique outlook?

by JimboJones | 23rd Mar 16, 5:01pm 1458705700

Surely it would be more rational to ban cars as we have several hundred fatal car accidents a year in NZ compared to zero fatal Muslim terrorist attacks a year in NZ. Just wait until one day maybe you or someone you care for is affected by car crash!

by Zachary Smith | 23rd Mar 16, 5:19pm 1458706784

Just ignore Steven.

by Otagoboy | 24th Mar 16, 10:24am 1458768298

And ban the Irish steven . Don't forget they killed more innocent civilians with car bombs than anybody else to date.

by ngakonui gold | 23rd Mar 16, 1:03pm 1458691418

Belgium car deaths = =====Accident.
Belgium terrorist deaths===No accident

by JimboJones | 23rd Mar 16, 5:09pm 1458706180

I bet there have been more deaths from deliberate car accidents in Belgium than from terrorist attacks.
Either way my point stands - why be so worried about terrorism when you are so many more times likely to be killed in your car?

by Zachary Smith | 23rd Mar 16, 5:22pm 1458706975

Because these are the opening shots in a renewed war of conquest. Already they have taken over whole suburbs in Europe. The people that lived in the Brussels neighborhood where the Paris terrorist was hiding knew he was there and reacted badly when he was caught.

by rastus1 | 23rd Mar 16, 5:30pm 1458707417

Hardly a renewed war. It's one we have been protected from by lying media and politicians. I bet if we were born into a country that had been raped and pillaged of resources by the Western corporates we too would become radicalised. Time to acknowledge we are not exactly innocent in all of this.

by Alex13 | 23rd Mar 16, 5:59pm 1458709171

Exactly. Too many people still do not realize that there's a war between two civilizations going on (or, I should say, a war between a civilization and a backward, barbaric, uncivilized way of existence). It is a war between a world where personal freedoms are valued and a world where the value of a person's life is nothing. The latter notion defines some of the ways they fight too. That many people do not understand this is not a big surprise, but it is astounding that people like Merkel and the likes do not understand the nature of the fight and, consequently, are ruining Europe and the western civilization.
And before anyone responds by saying that the latter is far from behaving ideally, - I will be the first one to agree with that, but it is still far better than the world ISIS wants to bring on.

by notaneconomist | 24th Mar 16, 11:27am 1458772036

It is the socialists who are protecting ISIS and allowing this barbaric uncivilised way to advance rapidly around the world..... religion is granted more protections than individual human rights......socialism is a numbers game which requires majority rule and refuses to have the checks and balances of individual rights at the forefront.......and that is why terrorists like ISIS and the problems in Western civilisation exist.

by head_down_bum_up | 23rd Mar 16, 10:19am 1458681575

Muslims do not equal terrorism.

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 10:23am 1458681782

But what does that have to do with your bum being up?

by Alex13 | 23rd Mar 16, 11:05am 1458684301

Not all Muslims are terrorists, but most terrorists nowadays are Muslims.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 11:16am 1458684981

If you ignore the drones and atatck gunships flying over sovereign nations and killing ppl and children either deliberately or from collateral damage I guess so.

by PeterPen | 23rd Mar 16, 11:24am 1458685456

Since when does Belgium deploy drones and gunships over sovereign nations? So the Belgium people deserve punishment because they are "white" and "Christian"? Well THAT is racist. Belgium is not to blame for Obama and Hillary Clinton policies.

But you have a point. Maybe this should be settled once and for all, instead of this low level undeclared war.

by Christov | 23rd Mar 16, 12:31pm 1458689502

The problem in dealing with radicalised terrorists is, there is no hostage situation in which a bargain of some description takes place. It becomes a case of well now you have our attention... what do you want.?..to which there is no answer.......but probably has some basis in real anger and a long memory in extremist Muslims......It is probably fair to say any number of terrorists were a suitable character type before their induction into extremism , hell some even convert to Islam for the sanctification of acts or deeds they may wish to perpetrate ,and so make good to go terrorists,but that does not mean they truly represent Islam just an ideal they connect to it.
Big Picture.....The Muslim extremist Elders still see Christianity in general brutalizing and marginalizing Islam around the globe as and when the need arises. The Christian methods are perhaps less crude but nonetheless effective.
You would have to wonder if the fear they (terrorists) invoke would not become fear anger and rage vengeance directed at Islam thus generating more extremism etc etc.
What you hint at PeterP is a Holy war which would take us back to 1095 and solve nothing save a few more centuries of wound licking and a whole new set of terrorists.....
I would say that in ..my.. opinion terrorism takes many forms over many time spans...it is unfortunate that the word is automatically associated with Muslim....however much that suits the Christians.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 12:39pm 1458689963

US forces are not muslim.

by Christov | 23rd Mar 16, 12:57pm 1458691038

I am aware Steven.....good to see you Stay Well

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 1:08pm 1458691684

yeah still breathing...long time no hear....

by Stephen Hulme | 24th Mar 16, 10:54am 1458770075

Belgium is not an innocent nation. Historically it has invested in violence towards others.

...Western media reports have not sought, for instance, to justify ISIS’ actions by drawing attention to NATO’s 2011 assault on Libya (in which Belgium participated). Read more

Only 90 years ago, the agents of King Leopold II of Belgium massacred 10 million Africans in the Congo. Read more

by sadr001 | 23rd Mar 16, 1:14pm 1458692071

conducting war does not in itself constitute terrorism or even a war crime. beheading hostages and/or executing them in cold blood instead of imprisoning them does constitute a war crime. Deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure without reason to believe that it might be being used by militants is both a war crime and terrorism.

I believe that drone /gunship strikes that don't have reasonable cause tend to result in court marshals imprisonment and stripping of rank.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 2:09pm 1458695393

Or cover ups, or gets ignored. The thing is when you hold all the weapons, you make the rules.

by Sluggy | 23rd Mar 16, 12:55pm 1458690947

I would hazard a guess that most Muslims wouldn't agree with you. On paper the terrorists maybe of Muslim origin, but are hardly practising the values of the religion.

by Otagoboy | 24th Mar 16, 10:31am 1458768697

Sluggy you are correct . Neither were all catholics in agreement with the IRA and their car bombing campaign.

by Justice | 23rd Mar 16, 6:02pm 1458709375

I might call the CIA terrorist cause....they are! I might call Israel a terrorist nation who blatantly commit all manner of wars crimes and human rights abuses...cause they are. ALL these things are bringing terror to innocent people.

YOU and others can pick your so-called western idealism over middle eastern values if you choose, but the fact remains the WEST are just as blind to the damage and carnage done in our names.
War for the west makes many people and certain corporations a great deal on money. Don't you find that utterly repugnant?
Illegal wars and occupations don't help us as they create power vacuums for "radicals" to turn the masses. Dropping bombs on homes, or a group of males just because they are males in a group which in many cases were family gatherings, weddings, etc only serves to radicalize the next generation.
The West is not innocent in all this by a long shot. I will call a spade a spade as I see fit and no f***ing western propaganda or ISIS BS is going to change the facts at hand. Violence only begets more violence.

by Andrewj | 23rd Mar 16, 9:54am 1458680097

Michael Hudson: The financial sector today is decoupled from industrialization. Its main interface with industry is to provide credit to corporate raiders. Their objective is asset stripping, They use earnings to repay financial backers (usually junk-bond holders), not to increase production. The effect is to suck income from the company and from the economy to pay financial elites.

These elites play the role today that landlords played under feudalism. They levy interest and financial fees that are like a tax, to support what the classical economists called “unproductive activity.” That is what I mean by “parasitic.”

If loans are not used to finance production and increase the economic surplus, then interest has to be paid out of other income. It is what economists call a zero-sum activity. Such interest is a “transfer payment,” because it that does not play a directly productive function. Credit may be a precondition for production to take place, but it is not a factor of production as such.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/03/michael-hudson-on-debt-deflation…

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 10:13am 1458681191

This is why I have called them financial parasites for some time. He just explains it better than I can/could.

by dictator | 23rd Mar 16, 10:14am 1458681279

Some interesting reading in the link. Even this morning I was helping someone improve the accuracy of their budget and to keep them focused on eliminating a 5 figure credit card debt. Consumer debts are a huge tax on our future well being. The financial sector does need to shrink.

by steven | 23rd Mar 16, 11:21am 1458685284

Cut the CC in half? works wonders.

by ngakonui gold | 23rd Mar 16, 12:54pm 1458690861

The fact that one of the perpetrators of this mornings bombings is on the run would suggest that he is not a real Isil terrorist.It suggests that he is weak and not prepared to sacrifice his life for his beliefs,in other words he just hates the west and wants to create mayhem amongst a system that he doesn't believe in.He has just missed out on 70 virgins that were waiting for him.

by Brutus Iscariot | 23rd Mar 16, 7:48pm 1458715703

Read a bit about the life of Muhammed and you'd be hard pressed to argue that the terrorists aren't acting in accordance with Islam.

To put the differences simply :

Muhammed = bloodthirsty conqueror
Jesus = pacifist revolutionary

If you strip out the rest and base your interpretation of the religion as following the example of its founder, that takes you down a pretty dark road.