A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; TD rates up, consumer confidence up, job ads up, tall men earn more, another huge Auckland project, swap rates up, NZD up

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; TD rates up, consumer confidence up, job ads up, tall men earn more, another huge Auckland project, swap rates up, NZD up

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. (Updated to correct an error on the ASB rate.)

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB (and BankDirect) launched a 7 month special rate of 3.60%, which is only available until September 30. RaboDirect increased their 6 month TD to 3.50%, a +20 bps rise. Their Term PIE also increased to the same level, and that means the equivalent yield for someone on the 33% tax rate is now 3.76%.

'BLOOMING MARVELOUS'
That is the headline ANZ used when it reported today's New Zealand consumer confidence index for September. Consumers are feeling more confident about the future as well as remaining upbeat about the right here and now. A net 31% expect to be better off financially in 12 months’ time, up +6 points on the month prior. Net optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook lifted from +5 to +12. Confidence regarding the long-term economic outlook increased from +10 to +14. House price expectations hit a new high. These results probably came as a bit of a surprise to ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie who has trying to set a less bullish tone recently, following the line of his boss. But it appears not everyone outside of ANZ has gotten that memo yet.

JOBS DEMAND 'STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY'
The good-news story extends to job ads in August. Job ads rose 3.1% in August (seasonally adjusted) – the seventh consecutive monthly lift – to be 12.1% higher than a year ago (3-month average). That’s a sign of a strong labour market. Internet job advertising lifted 2.0% in August (sa), while newspaper job advertising, which is much more volatile amidst a declining trend, rose 22.0% m/m (sa). Auckland job ads are 14.1% higher than a year ago, and Wellington job ads are up 11.5% y/y in what has been quite a spectacular turnaround in 2016. The slowdown in the rebuild effort continues to weigh on the Canterbury labour market, with job ads 8.8% lower than a year ago (3-month average).

FOREIGNERS PREFER NOMINAL
Data out today shows that $77.7 bln of Government securities are held in secondary markets, 61.8% of which ($48 bln) is held by non-residents. $12.6 bln of the total is held as inflation-indexed (linker) bonds but foreigners only hold 39% of these.

TALL & HIGH
The latest findings from Roy Morgan Research confirm that there seems to be a correlation between a person’s height and their income, particularly where men are concerned. That’s right: while the average Australian man is 176cm (just over 5’9”), those on incomes of $200,000 tend to be considerably taller.

ANOTHER HUGE AUCKLAN PROJECT ANNOUNCED
The Government said today that it will redevelop 300 existing Housing New Zealand properties into about 1200 new homes in Northcote. The $750 mln project will transform the existing 300 properties into about 1,200 higher spec houses. “The number of HNZ homes will increase from 300 to 400 and a further 600-800 properties will be sold as a mix of affordable and market housing,” they said. As part of the new Auckland Unitary Plan, Housing NZ is set to build a lot more. The old plans only enabled HNZ to increase its housing stock from about 28,000 to 31,000. The new plan enables approximately 60,000 homes on the equivalent land area, Auckland-wide. No word today on where the labour force for this big new addition will come from (or live while it is under construction). Today's announcement pumps our 'major Auckland project' list up to $28.3 bln of work.

THINGS LOOKING UP FOR DAIRY
Take a look at today's update by the USDA of Oceania dairy prices. The rise and rise of cheese and especially butter prices from their surveys are pretty impressive. There is another GDT auction next week and today's futures market bidding is showing good gains too.

WHOLESALE RATES RISE
Swap rates rose and steepened today. They are up +1 bp at the short end, up +3 bp at the long end. You can find our chart for all terms of swap rates here. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 2.24%.

NZ DOLLAR RISES
Our dollar has risen from where we were at this time yesterday. It is now at 73.2 USc. On the cross rates, it is at 97.3 AUc and 65.1 euro cents. The Trade Weighted Index (TWI-5) at 76.5. Check our real-time charts here.

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Swap rates rose and steepened today.

Not to plan?

Doubts about where central banks are headed are rippling through global markets, jolting investors who long piled into stocks and bonds as central banks flooded the world with cheap money.

A bond selloff sent yields on longer-term benchmark German and Japanese bonds surging this month, after historic lows earlier this year. The yield on Japan’s 30-year bond nearly hit zero in July but has jumped to about 0.55%. The S&P 500 stock index, which went two months without a 1% move, recently posted three of that size in three trading days.

The suspicion that central-bank firepower is reaching its limits finds support in Japan, where the BOJ has yet to generate steady inflation despite buying nearly $800 billion of bonds annually since late 2014, plus billions of dollars worth of exchange-traded funds. Economic growth is fragile, while the yen has been on a tear—the opposite of what the central bankers wanted and of what Japan’s exporting companies need. Japan’s stock market is down 12.7% this year.

At a bookstore on the 10th floor of the BOJ’s headquarters, a top seller is a work by a former BOJ official, Hideo Hayakawa, comparing advocates of radical easing to Japanese World War II generals who thought they could win just through blind faith and fighting spirit. Three years ago, the store’s top titles featured the views Mr. Hayakawa attacks. Read more

6'3" here.

Length or height? My sympathy if the former.

Huge Auckland Project

The land around the Northcote Shopping Centre currently occupied by dilapidated State houses is "potentially" some the most valuable land within 5-10 minutes of the Auckland CBD. Anyone not familiar with the area (it's just over the harbour bridge) would conclude this is a good move. In my opinion it is a dumb move made by dipstick from Dipton who knows nothing of the area - just what he is told - each section is worth in excess of $1 million when you get rid of the eye-sores

This is where they should be doing a mini Arthur Grimes high rise development along the lines of the Albany Rose Gardens

Yippy !! great news galore ... cheer up NZ , things will get better ...
Positive sentiment survey threw some egg on ANZ bosses and Cameron's Faces ....!!
The Northcote area project is the best news we had so far, that area is a filthy dump and the 1930-40s houses needed to be demolished and the area cleaned up and Sanitized - Home owners in that neighbourhood just had a property upward revaluation of at least 100-150K each ... let's hope we get more similar projects in similar HNZ areas - like Panmure and Otahuhu ...
Well ... on all these positive notes , I might start talking to my real estate mates and go shopping for a new property before the market warms up too much this summer ... I personally trust Tony Alexander's opinion and think he is ( and has always been) on the money :
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WO-September-15-20...

You mean the same Tony Alexander who predicted dairy prices would reach $9 in 2014.....

BNZ chief economist... doesn't ever come up with any solutions only states the problems..

actually not problems as far as BNZ and their ever growing loan book is concerned..

Where are NZs independent economists and journalists ? People that don't have multi-million dollar homes in Ponsonby and Herne bay and actually care about where Auckland is heading in terms of affordability and the young.

Thank you for the T.A. link, excellent analysis and sounds about right to me. He's certainly gung ho about the prospects for Auckland, housing and our future generally.
I doubt his dismissal of the prospects for the regions outside Auckland (apparently Auckland is no longer a region?) as it's contrary to the strong trend already occurring. Here in the Bay of Islands we are experiencing strong growth from Kiwis (Aucklanders mostly) at or near retirement age and immigration (particularly from Europe, North America with a few South Americans, South Africans and Asians) with similar trends in the Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Nelson/Blenheim and Central Otago. Not everyone enjoys the prospect of living like maggots on a piece of meat and, no doubt, there is an element of anti Asian sentiment involved. I can certainly see Auckland growing at its current 28 year doubling for the foreseeable future and continuing to become a predominantly Asian city. The rest of NZ remaining essentially "Kiwi". That alone may be sufficient attraction for many to prefer the "regions"
New Zealand and our largest city are heavily dependent on primary production and tourism to earn our way in the world. A vibrant and powerful economy in those sectors outside Auckland is absolutely vital or the whole lot goes down the drain.

People whinge on here but things here are much much better than the rest of the world. The currency reflects that...despite dairy prices being relatively low.

NatBird what the BNZ chief economist is alluding to is that if the government does not bring in a Vancouver Tax and if investors are not required to meet Loan to Income ratios of 4 to 1 then yes

- the housing crisis will deepen
- home ownership rates will continue to fall
- housing affordability will continue to deteriorate
- NZ will retain the record of 2nd highest prices relative to incomes in the developed world.
- FHBs will continue to be locked out of the market
- investors will continue to buy 46% of properties
- foreign buyers (incld student and temp workers) will continue to buy 13,500 houses a year approx 13BLn NZD or 30% of resident sales.
- politicians/ journalists with homes in expensive suburbs will continue to promote the status quo

Yeah so for that he is on the money...

Sure , I hear you ... loud and clear .... there may be other ways interpreting what he's saying ( although he is very clear) .... Here is my personal opinion, I am sure that you won't like my version .. haha!!
BTW, I hope you did read his note in 2012 ... that was very interesting!

My past experience with a similar market tells me that he is correct and he makes sense ( without twisting the meaning of the words as you did) ...

Leaving the politics out of it, The Gov ( or ACC) can bring in the Stamp duty tomorrow if they like, but , my guess, is that they know very well that it will not have an effect and might possibly push the prices up like it did in Sydney and Melbourne .... Vancouver is yet to be seen ( early days and enormous supply in the pipeline)

The foreigners are like "Caterpillars" , who are buying properties in gorgeous modern cities all around the world, will not stop at an added 15% and will continue buying as long as the prices still looks relatively cheap ... so after the Vancouver tax and oversupply in the last 6 months and counting, they are moving to Seattle and other cities in droves , Also coming down under and if there will be a tax in Auckland then they will move to Hamilton and Tauranga ( which some chinese already been doing in the last 3 years) ... NZ will remain desirable for its way of life, freedom, and relatively Cheap property prices ... this will only slow down if foreign immigration was fully stopped ( good luck with that !) ....

Yet, How about the locals & returning Kiwis and Aussies ??? they make more than 50 - 70% of the buyers in the market .... Will we ban them too or kerb them by debt/income ratios ?? ... they will take more risk and find the money elsewhere ...!! the market is rolling in cash !!

When we have enough supply to stop this mayhem then we will reach a stable market and prices can come down whenever access supply was made available ... Tony pointed out nicely that any action thus far to intervene in the market is short lived and the market will tend to correct it in its own reactions ....

However , I am going to add another house to my portfolio because I am convinced that while this boom could slowdown because of further regulations and obstacles but will not stop rising in the next 12-18 months at best , and todays house prices will look cheap in few years.

This is not an Auckland only phenomena, it is everywhere !! I fully agree that it will reach a saturation point one day - But I don't believe in the Crash theory that some are hallucinating about and waiting ( or Calling) for it to happen ( maybe you'd like to read Tony's piece again!) .... I also believe that any Gov cannot stop this tsunami using regulation (unless they are stupid enough to bare the consequences).

The bits of positive news lately, and with a market this HOT, are significantly good indicators that we are moving ahead and will encourage more people to take more calculated risk going forward ...this summer will be very interesting to watch..

I have 2 FHBers at home ATM who cannot afford a house on their own .... I am fully aware of the issue which we discuss almost daily ..... But we also like the chinese proverb that says: Instead of cursing the Darkness, light a Candle ....

Hence, I will buy this investment for them and willing to take the risks involved ( if any) in order to secure their future and have peace of mind when I am gone ...

Hope it makes sense ?

You're a bit behind, foreign buyers have well and truly hit Hamilton and not just yesterday, either, you do not have to go far to find someone renting off a foreigner.

You use the word relative - relative to what......

NatBird the discussions are always interesting.

1. The stamp duty would apply nationwide.... Hamilton is far less desirable for them (although I love the Waikato and hamilton) and last time I checked there is plenty of land in Hamilton that could be opened up.

New builds would be exempt to encourage foreign buyers and the Investors who wish to help society to increase the supply..... so less demand for existing housing and more incentives for supply

2. Australia stamp duty applies to all citizens and an additional amount for foreigners ... what I am proposing is one for foreign buyers and investors only (as defined by a 2nd home purchase).

3. Kiwis returning would not pay the stamp duty after all they are not foreigners.

4. Foreign buyer discussions should not be about resident v non resident (as NZ media have us believe)
It should be consistent with the Australian, Singapore & Canadian definition of foreign buyers which is :
Foreign buyers = offshore foreigners + foreign students + temp visa workers

5. Supply only discussion is what National have been going on about for 8 years and look where that got us. Demand needs to be addressed.
Under your boss Key prices have risen 1/2 million dollars in Auckland. This is more than all other PM's prior to Key combined.

6. in regards to your comment

"I also believe that any Gov cannot stop this tsunami using regulation (unless they are stupid enough to bare the consequences)."

Well the Singaporean government did.

I don't want a crash as much as you do. I prefer the Singapore approach of taming the market

The Government also rolled out an increasingly tight suite of policies to restrict mortgage borrowing. In 2012, it limited mortgages to 35 years, and in 2013, it tightened loan-to-value ratios to 50% for people with one housing loan and 40% for those with two or more loans. Debt-to-income limits were also imposed.
Stamp duty was ramped up, with a 16% duty imposed on those who sold a property within a year of purchase. Those buying second and subsequent properties pay duties of 7% and 10% respectively, and foreign buyers pay a 15% stamp duty.
The Government’s goal was to “skew the incentives” in a way that reduced the demand for property.

http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/singapore-housing-bubble/

6. Key & Reserve bank have failed to
- bring in Loan to Income
- bring in stamp duty on foreigners
- bring in stamp duties on 2nd home purchases

Little wonder we have the mess we have today.

7. You are lucky you can buy for your two children. A large portion on kiwis will not be able to do this.
WHy ? Because we have put the NZ property market on the world stage and are selling to the highest bidder. We have the world's lowest purchase tax and the 2nd highest prices relative to incomes in the world.

This will only lead to more social issues in the future.

While other governments are acting and protecting their citizens our government is sitting back and letting the crisis continue.

I agree with just about all you have to say, however on Hamilton, foreigners have been buying up large here for quite some time, and as I said EB you do not have to speak to many people before you come across one renting from a foreigner, and furthermore, the foreigner the are renting off owns more than just the house they are renting, in Hamilton.
Hamilton is expanding like there is no tomorrow, perhaps its time to take another look, start with north of Flagstaff out all the way to Kay Rd, that whole area is turning into housing, and then just last night I heard that the new development east of Wairere Drive where new shops have sprung up, there is consent for about 5,000 new houses. I nearly fell off my chair. It is phenomenal what is happening in Hamilton. I think it might be leaving Auckland for dead tbf.

And to add to what you've said about so called "soft landings" in the housing market, I am not quite so sure I agree there so much. If we are to accept that this is going to take a very long time to correct (price to income, particularly) then we will have to accept that we have a couple of generations that will rent for their lifetimes. Given that, I think it would be only fair to create tenancy laws that make it possible for people to hold, very long term leases, not just 12 months or whatever. Certainly, this business of people being tipped out of houses for them to be onsold (I have a friend in that exact situation right now) must stop. It costs a lot of money to relocate, even just around the corner, the cost of moving itself and more often than not, a real estate agents week's rent commission.
Either way foreigners have got to be rid of in the housing market, I believe, there is NO place for foreign landlords in this country and even more so, there is no justification for the public to be contributing to rents to be paid to them.

Agreed need stronger tenancy laws.... exciting times ahead

Ok, you see PA... we sometimes lose our objective when we exaggerate and blow things out of proportion .... " a couple of generations?? " lol that is 100 years ... let's not get carried away with our enthusiasm .... property markets and economical cycle has historically gone up and down in 7-10 years cycles ... we have seen this boom before and at that time it was also thought to be impossible to own a house and affordability was at its worse ... but some did get over that and bought at the right time 9( at the top and bottom of the cycle) and some didn't ....
I am very well aware of Hamilton's situation, I own property there ... and the city is indeed imploding ... because it looks so cheap compared to anything else in a fantastic area so close to Auckland now.

Tenancy law is a very delicate matter and it is highly biased towards tenants as it is ... if you are a good tenant then there is not issue, but maybe you haven't seen bad ones Some of their destructive behavior mounts to vandalism and criminal actions protected by the tenancy law .... Nothing in the current law stops long term tenants from signing a long term lease of 2,3, or 5 years - if they are good people most landlords will welcome that - however they also have to commit to that, at present nothing stops such tenants to walk away from a fixed agreement ..but the Landlord can't !! the current law has sharp teeth to bite landlords and toothless when it comes to tenants.
It is up to individuals to select their landlord just like he does chose his tenants ...

The supply of housing will also make that more realistic and could bring rents down ... there is shortage of good rentals in Auckland -- there is a lot of rubbish there and people are queuing and attending open homes for rental --- Yet we blame investors for buying properties as most of these are offered as rentals --- so a vicious circle and chicken and egg story !!

Someone said that there was no such thing as free lunch !! tightening the already screwed tenancy laws will reflect on rents - risk has to be priced !! forcing market rents wont work - we are not in a jungle !! ... so cool-head ( Not Green head) discussion should prevail ...

First up, a generation is considered to be 25 years, I think best part of 50 years to fix this mess has been bandied around so I will stick to that, if it is all the same.
And on the tenancy laws and them favouring tenants, no way, not at all, not ever, once you consider that renting will become the norm. People still need to be able to make a home and renting a house on a short term basis will never offer that. And I put it to you that more stable laws that offered longer leases, perhaps somewhat similar to commercial, or buildings owned by co-operatives, where people actually have a stake, perhaps have to supply some of their own chattlels will deliver far better tenants, along with perhaps compulsory P/L insurance of some description on tenants' part and perhaps even the right to onsell the lease, given a few conditions. Win win I would have thought.
So intelligent head, not blue head should prevail in this discussion.

How many tenants do you have mate?? or dealt with ??

If it is that bad, why do you do it?

Ok, so you don't have tenants , never dealt with tenants ...and it looks you are renting at the moment ----

So you are only arguing with locked eyes and ears and don't want to know ( or learn) about the other side or the story !!

Why do property investors do it ??, because it is a Business and an Investment just like any other ... We provide an ential service just like any other !! .... and we get good customers and some bad ones, It is not that difficult to understand ... is it ??

The good customers help paying some of the business running expenses and the occasionally bad ones who cause damage and lead to loses ( the sort of idiots who think that they own the rental they live in, or believe that Landlords are stealing their Accommodation Supplement !!) ....

Most Landlords are responsible people and keep Their properties in good condition to attract good customers and avoid the bad ones, they have rules and regulations concerning H&S, insulation and others ....supply & demand Market forces certainly apply strongly to the rental business ...

But unfortunately, it seems that all this is a bit too difficult for you to comprehend !!..... so I rest my case ...!

10
up

@ National Estate Agent Bird: Speaking as a Landlord/property owner even I can see that the current property market is screwed form a citizen perspective particularly for Auckland.

Though you wouldn't give a rats ass about that or the citizens of this country because your obviously a the lowest of the low; an ESTATE AGENT!!!!! You are everything that is wrong with the country and then some.

If National Landlord Bird truly wants provide a real service to the economy (as every landlord harps on about)

He would encourage investors to invest in new builds only to increase supply. How ?
Promote a 15% stamp duty on Investors and Foreign Buyers buying existing homes. Make new homes exempt.

There is no benefit in buying existing homes or buying and flipping existing homes. This is purely changing ownership and not helping with supply.

To make things worse Foreign buyers often leave the homes empty so this reduces rental stock.

Classic so NZ housing is "just like any other" business. Tell me of these other businesses where the PM promises to protect your equity and vested interests actively restrict supply. I need to diversify so let me know.

This article provides quite a good summary of the damage that's been done to NZ : Property prices a risk to economy - economist

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/309850/property-prices-a-risk-to-...

Quote from article: Housing dominates New Zealanders' wealth and debt, and the overheated market is a key driver of the economy.

At the end of May, households owed $220 billion in housing-related debt, which is near record highs at 88 percent of annual economic output, or GDP.

The market value of the country's housing stock had grown to $905bn, or more than three-and-a-half times that of GDP!

"That's the biggest risk ... something goes wrong overseas that we won't escape from, and then we are not in the best place to withstand that," Dr Nana said.

And that's only the tip of the iceberg.

You can't rest your case, because you didn't make one. Wearing people down with a stream of random gibberish may work for selling houses, but it doesn't work here. All you did was make up a bunch of bullshit and attribute it to Pocket without any evidential basis whatsoever, then flap your gums for a few paragraphs of unsupported claims and incoherent rambling.

As irrelevant as it is, I have rented my own home when I was away for a longish period of time, and no, I do not rent anyone else's house. I do not own "investment" properties because I have believed from the time the whole nonsense started to gain speed in the late 80s that it was fairly immoral, especially the wholesale buy up of existing houses. It has turned out to be exactly what I thought it would, although it is fairly recently that I came up with the term "people farming".
And on the business like any other schtick, it is NOT, when you have to pay commercial interest rates like any other business, I might reconsider. Go and run a real business.

Oh, and btw, the business I operate in, NO-ONE gets to go the MSD for a bit of extra to pay my bill, I have to meet the market!

10
up

Let's not forget John Key's 2007 speech

Tuesday, 21 August 2007, 9:29 am
Speech: New Zealand National Party
John Key MP
Leader of the National Party

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0708/S00336.htm

Conclusion
Over the past few years a consensus has developed in New Zealand. We are facing a severe home affordability and ownership crisis. The crisis has reached dangerous levels in recent years and looks set to get worse.
This is an issue that should concern all New Zealanders. It threatens a fundamental part of our culture, it threatens our communities and, ultimately, it threatens our economy.
The good news is that we can turn the situation around. We can deal with the fundamental issues driving the home affordability crisis. Not just with rinky-dink schemes, but with sound long-term solutions to an issue that has long-term implications for New Zealand’s economy and society.
National has a plan for doing this and we will be resolute in our commitment to the goal of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home.

It’s a worthy goal and one I hope you will support us in achieving. Thank-you.

I certainly will, if I can and when i can ....
I do agree on the principle as I mentioned and have the issue at home !, but might differ with most here on the process and how to go about it ... in my view, inundating the space with the same examples and slogans without being an expert in the matter or researching each case ( country) is unhelpful and dare i say damaging to the cause itself ... Singapour doesn't have much supply to offer ... it is a small island 719.1 km² with 5.5 Million people scrammed in it .... so they killed the demand that ran rampant ...!

Again, we are not the same and such measures will kill our economy, it is just playing with a barrel of powder !! please try to entertain the idea that countries are different and what goes there should not necessarily fit here ...

the world is full of contradicting info and misleading reports and stats .... we owe to ourselves to go through all this junk and seek truth in the haystack ... I have a mind of my own , and only believe stories after I check them ... We also owe it to ourselves to be fair in our pursuit for the truth regardless of the t shirt colour and the eye patch we are wearing !! at least, I hope that we agree on the above :)

I would suggest to direct all this frustration and anger to the MPs in each party & electorate and get them ( or help them) with info and research so that they can do their Jobs (properly!) ... after all they have been elected to scrutinise the gov of the day and provide assistance to improve the Nation....Not to pick holes and act like kids .... The Opposition's job is to gather support for change by building a case for what they are calling for and hopefully believe in - Not just barking in Parliament like spoiled Toddlers throwing their toys out of the cott .. and blaming all and sundry ... we need solid and quiet discussion ..without the theatrics and the bullying ... and without Lies !!

We are all aware of leaders promising and claiming stuff they won't be able to fulfil once in power, not necessarily because they were lying at the time but because they lacked full details and proper consultation with parties involved ....or stumbled upon the tons of idiots and bureaucrats that we bread and their webs of crap !! Once they are in office and rule under pressure and the Law of the land, they start feeling the weight and the resistance of internal and external centres of power influencing their decisions in a way they might start looking like fools at times with lots of broken promises ... Any manager and executive knows that ! ... They also get to deal with priorities or emergencies which can change or postpone plans .... The closure of Guantanamo is a good example !! much simpler than house price control you would have thought by the most powerful man on earth ... lol ... but that is another long subject ....

Few corrections for the sake of clarity ... I said this few times now but will say it again \
Mr. Key is not my boss... I don't have any bosses .. lol, Dont need any or have time for that crap .... I am not defending anyone who agrees or differs with what I think ... should my opinions cross with the common line of comments here , that does not mean that I am a supporter of Nat or any other party , so let's get these silly thought out of the way !... Common sense is what I follow ... my aim, just like yours, is preserving this Nation, this Country, and our Culture ... end of story !! I have voted labour for years and voted for National when it was due and made sense at the time .... So Whoever messes up and insults our intelligence, does not get My Vote ..... Hence I always keep an open mind, and Do Not find excuses - there is a big difference !

Ok great write up so...Given that key called it a crisis in 2007

Keys words:
"We are facing a severe home affordability and ownership crisis. The crisis has reached dangerous levels in recent years and looks set to get worseThe good news is that we can turn the situation around. We can deal with the fundamental issues driving the home affordability crisis. Not just with rinky-dink schemes, but with sound long-term solutions to an issue that has long-term implications for New Zealand’s economy and society. National has a plan for doing this and we will be resolute in our commitment to the goal of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home. It’s a worthy goal and one I hope you will support us in achieving. Thank-you."

Three things are evident and nothing you can write can defend this:
- KEY'S PLAN WAS A FAILURE
- KEY FAILED TO MEET HIS GOALS (of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home)
- THE CRISIS IS 500k LARGER THAN BEFORE HE TOOK OFFICE

Those other countries are exactly where we should be looking to for guidance. It's a global market and you can't act in isolation anymore. To ignore what our peers is doing is exactly what we have done to date. As our peers increase taxes on foreigners and we remain tax free for purchases, then of course that will encourage more demand for NZ houses.

and let us not forget the debt that is piling up

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/83530/kiwis-debt-pile-now-exceeds-ann...

Remember that other GOAL Key had of CLOSING THE INCOME GAP WITH AUSTRALIA. Looks like he closed the wrong GAP by closing the HOUSE PRICE GAP instead of the INCOME GAP.

So another FAILED GOAL by KEY.

Yes , he did ...I do not defend his actions (or inactions) at all ... but in the heat of the moment we need to be mindful of realities of being in power !!

However none of us, in my opinion, is positioned to judge him for what he did, or should have done, simply because we do not have all the facts , yet !!........ Not an excuse! but it is true ... That is the Job of the opposition parties ( who have been given that mandate) because they have access to more official information ( some of which can be classified) to build a case against the Govt. and present it to the public is a smart and convincing way to influence their opinion on election day ... so far they have done a miserable job and just shouting like the others and so far the polls reflect that !! .... maybe they will get their act together in the next 12 months ...

National has been elected to do a Job and they will be judged by the same people on election day for their promises and achievements ( we are the jury not the prosecutors) - that is how our democracy works ... As I said , this can be done constructively with cool heads and without shouting and screaming which is usually counter productive ...

Nat Bird you are joking right... we are exactly the people that should judge him
- after all he works for the taxpayers
- earns 450k a year which is more than the UK PM (would you believe it)

The real shame is that we can't claw back his salary for not meeting his GOAL.

He is responsible as he is in power. The opposition don't have the power to make any decisions only he does. Shifting the blame saying that because the opposition are weak then he is allowed to FAIL and it is all ok.

Look at that speech in 2007

"The good news is that we can turn the situation around. We can deal with the fundamental issues driving the home affordability crisis. Not just with rinky-dink schemes, but with sound long-term solutions to an issue that has long-term implications for New Zealand’s economy and society.
National has a plan for doing this and we will be resolute in our commitment to the goal of ensuring more young Kiwis can aspire to buy their own home"

I TAKE THIS AS A COMPLETE FAILURE ON HIS PART.
JUST LIKE THE FLAG.
LIKE LIKE THE INCOME GAP WITH AUSTRALIA
JUST LIKE GDP PER CAPITA

It was a crisis when UAckland prices were 0.5million as he stated now they are doubled and 1m.... he should declare a NATIONAL EMERGENCY.

His growth at the moment is driven off Immigration (3 times the UK rate) and a Housing Bubble..... none of this is sustainable long term

Just looking at the latest news from Vancouver's property news in regards to Foreign Students obtaining huge loans from Canadian banks to purchase million dollar mansions? Apparently the Canadian banks don’t require foreign buyers to prove the source of their income when applying for a mortgage (Their Students for god sakes)!

Does anyone know whether Foreign Students have been able to play the same game here in NZ?

Here's the article by the way: Nine students own $57M worth of Vancouver property.
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/14/nine-students-own-57m-worth-of-vancou...

Great spot CJ.
Crazy thing is in NZ these foreign students would be classified in the same bucket as nz citizens..... so not treated as foreign buyers. To quote someone in the media " residents can never be classified as foreign buyers"

Would love for someone to do some independent investigative journalism on the extent of foreign and temp visa buyers in NZ.

Yes agreed, It's high time that we truly should know the extent of foreign buyers in NZ, it's almost a year now that data has been collected on property purchases. Hopefully the political opposition should be able to view the uncensored and un-skewed figures on the subject.

At least the Canadians were honest with themselves to do something about the problem of foreign buyers massively inflating their housing market and crippling their economy.

Unfortunately investigative journalism in this country is hampered by MSM Group Think.

We have the figures per LINZ

13,500 buyers ticked that they were students or temporary Visa workers, however the NZmedia are so fixated on Resident v Non-Resident that they forget that the issue is Foreign v Citizen buyers ....

WHy ?
Because the media staff themselves own properties. Some own even in places like Herne Bay & Ponsonby
Because this understates the foreign buyer demand figures so Nats are happy
Because the Real Estate Agents and Banks prefer it this way to keep the circus going
Because RE and Banks are teh largest advertisers on NZ media

So unlike in Australia and Canada where these 13,500 would be included in foreign buyer category... in NZ only offshore foreigners are counted and this lot are lumped in with kiwi students.

Its a privilege that students are allowed to study in NZ... I don't understand given the huge supply shortage why they are allowed to buy property on the same terms as NZ citizens. They should pay a 15% stamp duty perhaps higher if that was deemed too low..

1. this would reduce their demand
2. help pay for infrastructure that Auckland so badly needs.

WIN/ WIN scenario

KEY FAILED ON HIS GOAL... THIS IS HIS LEGACY
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA0708/S00336.htm