Here's my summary of the key events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news the iron ore price in China has now broken up through US$100/tonne.
But first, the latest reading of American consumer sentiment has brought a surprising fall, one on strong partisan lines. But as the survey notes, those with negative outlooks tend to act on them as opposed to those with positive outlooks. The survey's authors say this is a concerning signal, even those the absolute level remains high.
The January 2017 US Federal budget surplus was bigger than expected at +US$51 bln, due mainly to the almost +10% rise in tax receipts in the month from the same month a year ago. Fiscal year-to-date however, their budget deficit is only marginally -2% smaller than the same period last year.
And over the weekend, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer noted there is rising and significant uncertainty about American fiscal policy under the Trump administration, but the Fed would be strict in meeting targets of creating full employment and getting inflation to 2%.
In Switzerland, voters clearly rejected plans to overhaul their corporate tax system, sending the government back to the drawing board as it tries to abolish ultra-low tax rates for thousands of multinational companies without triggering a mass exodus.
In Panama, both name partners of the now-famous firm of Mossack Fonseca have been arrested on money laundering charges. The arrests are linked to corruption and bribery allegations involving Brazil's construction giant, Odebrecht.
In China, iron ore prices have hit US$100/tonne in their futures market. Far from collapsing as many observers expected, iron ore is hitting new highs almost every week, up +8% in the latest period.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield is higher by another +2 bps, now at 2.41%. And the risk premium our banks are paying for wholesale credit, as measured by credit default swap spreads is now its lowest in 111 months; that is, since November 2007 and before when the GFC started to bite.
Oil prices are higher again today, now just under US$54 for the US benchmark, while the Brent benchmark is just under US$57 a barrel. And there has been another strong rise in the number of new drilling rigs brought online in North America last week. They have risen a massive +80% since June last year.
The gold price is marginally higher, +US$2 and now at US$1,234/oz.
And the New Zealand dollar is pretty much unchanged since this time on Friday. It is now at 72 USc. On the cross rates we are down a bit at 93.9 AU¢, and against the euro at 67.7 euro cents. The NZ TWI-5 index is still at 77.4.
If you want to catch up with all the changes on Friday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».