National is on top while Labour has dropped below 40% in latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll; Winston Peters kingmaker, although now at risk of falling below 5%; Greens steady the ship

By Alex Tarrant

National's attacks on Labour appear to have worked over the past week, with Bill English's party jumping six points to 46% in the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll. Labour, meanwhile, has slumped seven points to 37%.

See all coverage of the final leaders' debate below, including reaction from Ardern and English.

The Greens have recovered one to 8%, while New Zealand First could be staring down a repeat of 2008, when they missed out on the 5% threshold - they're at 5% - down one. It might be Peters' Northland seat that keeps them in the frame at this rate. The Maori Party was steady on 1%, ACT weaker on 0.3% and TOP steady on 2%.

In terms of seats in Parliament, 1 News reported this would correspond to National: 58, Labour: 46, Greens: 9, NZ First: 6, Maori Party 1, and ACT: 1. However the Maori Party has been shown to be ahead in two of the seven Maori electorate seats, so might return two MPs to Parliament. ACT on 0.3%, but with the Epsom seat, could create an overhang, meaning we're looking at a 121 seat Parliament - 61 seats still needed.

English wasn't taking the numbers for granted, saying the polls were all over the place. Meanwhile, Ardern said she thought Labour still had momentum.

It is thought that the two parties' own internal polls show them closer, with National in front. A big number to remember is the undecides - they're at 13%, down only one point from a week ago.

On the preferred PM stakes, Bill English was out in front by 37 to 31.

The New Zealand dollar jumped over half a US cent to over 73.7 USc right after the poll was released - indicating financial market relief that English would be leading a government, even if that included the prospect of Winston Peters.

Tax top of the agenda

Both parties continued their stoush over their respective economic and tax offerings on Wednesday. National's Steven Joyce continued to pump the line that the average Kiwi worker would be $1,060 a year worse off under Labour than National, given Labour's promise to row back on already-legislated for tax cuts from 1 April.

"They say it would be spent in health and education, but in fact it would be put towards their very expensive free tertiary education policy. Taxpayers already meet about 80 per cent of the cost of tertiary education. Labour claim to be concerned for family incomes but they simply want to make hard-working kiwis pay more tax," Joyce said.

In response, Labour's Grant Robertson said he was calling out National "for running a campaign that is an affront to democracy and the principles of honesty, decency and fairness. They need to pull down the attack ads and apologise to New Zealanders."

“We’ve seen it in Steven Joyce’s fictitious $11.7 billion hole, in National’s complete fabrication that Labour would raise income tax, and the divide National has raised between urban and rural New Zealanders. Labour’s income tax policy is clear: no New Zealander will pay more income tax in the future than what they are paying now. We have also been clear that now is not the time for tax cuts. Now is the time to invest in health, housing and education."

New Zealand First's Winston Peters was in Ashburton trying to grab back some of the rural vote that English has obviously attracted with his constant touring of the regions.

"National supporters need to seriously reflect and consider New Zealand First because: We will not support Labour ‘s proposals to widen taxes or increase the taxes we currently have; and we will not support Labour’s proposals to widen the scope of the Emissions Trading Scheme either," he said.

Final leaders' debate from 7pm

Below is our live coverage of the final leaders' debate - hosted by TVNZ. A video of Ardern answering media questions afterwards is above, and English is below.

Debate - latest on top.

8:00pm - latest:

Mood of the boardroom

Hosking puts to English that business no longer fear Labour and the Greens, and agree now isn’t the time for tax cuts. Also that National hasn’t been as robust and dynamic as they thought.

English says that was editorialising. Says one business leader texted him and said he’d gone and voted National. The Mainfreight chap was “just wrong” and he had benefited very well under this government, English says. People are entitled to their opinions and he’s entitled to disagree with them.

Ardern jumps in – you can have that stability and growth, but also we need vision about the challenges we face. We’ve had nine years to test what future under National would look like. Using this to call for change for Labour – we’ll know what National will deliver so give us a go with a different approach, she’s saying

“You discovered poverty last week.” That’s quite a good one. English is asked if he’s been asleep at the wheel – is he only just waking up now and thinking ‘oh we better spend some money.’

English raises National’s social investment approach. Ardern asks why then are kids sleeping in cars and there are rising amounts of homeless. Why are they only moving on poverty after nine years.

Hosking raises people living in hotels, cars, and social issue problems. To say it’s not getting worse is delusional, he says. English says 50,000 kids on first of April, and another 50,000 in two or three years. National also has better solutions on environmental and social issues.

Lowest number of sole parents on the benefit, he says. Ardern asks why then are there more kids in poverty.

Closing statements

English says he’s enjoyed the campaign – it’s shown two different visions for NZ’s future. National has used the opportunities of surpluses to now deal with important challenges.

Ardern says she’s run a positive campaign because New Zealanders agree on resolving tough issues. Affordable housing, clean rivers and accessible healthcare. It all adds up, she says.

That’s it. Hope you enjoyed it. Reaction to follow.

7:49:

Fiscals

Hosking brings up claim that this campaign is a lolly scramble which has confused people. Is that fair? Ardern says it doesn’t feel different in terms of the amount of policy out there. Both parties might have left it a bit late. But Labour’s also putting out exactly how they’ll pay for it.

Was Joyce’s fiscal hole thing ok to do because it found out Labour has nothing left to spend above and beyond existing promises? Ardern says that’s not true – they’ve got $2.2bn over four years. English says that’s a lot different from what National has left.

Labour put out a fully costed manifesto, Ardern says. “We were transparent on that.” Joyce and English completely fabricated the fiscal hole story – no one had agreed with them on it – and it had confused people, Ardern says, “It did neither of us a favour.”

We’re looking each other in the eye now saying they’re each right. English says he’s run more budgets than most people. Hosking raises that not a single economist agreed with him. Labour will bring in more debt and tax at a time we’re having surpluses, English keeps going.

Ardern now back in – she’s been out on the road saying he’d been a competent finance minister. But now he’s being disingenuous. “I cannot believe two days out from an election you continue to mislead people.”

Coalitions

Ardern is asked if she’d jettison the Greens if that would allow a government with Winston Peters. The Greens still get the first call – (this doesn’t mean a deal)

English has a new line – Labour can’t jettison the Greens because of the MoU. Ardern says a phone call doesn’t mean a stitched up and done deal. It’s not a locked in coalition agreement, Ardern says. They’ll try and form a government if they’re in a position to do so, but the first call just means it’s a conversation.

Now to National – ACT won’t work with NZF, and Maori Party has said that too, Hosking says. English says if they get biggest vote, then onus is on them to try first and show they can have a majority because they’re the incumbent.

On Peters trading people off, English says “cut out the middleman.” He doesn’t like the idea that Peters decides who the government is.

Ardern says she’s been consistent this campaign focussing on lifting Labour’s party vote. Hosking says 36% or 42%, if they need Peters then they still need Peters. She says it does depend on what vote Labour gets in terms of how much sway it has.

English is asked why he’s not more open about who he’ll go with. He says obligation is to form stable, strong government. The best way to get that is a strong party vote for National in this case, he says.

English says he knows Peters well and has worked with him before, even though he can be a bit challenging. If that’s what it takes to form strong stable government, then that’s what they’ll do.

7:35:

Health 

Is it really the biggest election issue, Hosking asks. Ardern says it is – every stop she does in every town and city includes people coming up to her regarding waiting lists.

Labour is promising to restore what hasn’t been put in over the past nine years to account for inflation and population growth – Middlemore and Waikato have ‘full signs’ on their doors.

Hosking asks English why health is the biggest issue. He says it’s always the biggest issue no matter what the spending is on it. On Dunedin waiting lists and the prostate situation, he says there seemed to be particular circumstances about the way that service had been run. Hosking doesn’t think he’s answering the question. Sometimes in a large health system things don’t go as they should, English says.

It’s possible it’s about resourcing, but often it’s about decisions and judgements made under pressure, English says.

English says National has increased health spending from $12 billion to $17 billion over the last seven or eight years. Ardern asks if they’ve funded for inflation and population growth. English says they have, but adds it’s not all about what you’ve spent. Ardern is throwing GP waiting times at him.

Is if funding or infrastructure? English says you do need more funding all the time because demand keeps growing – it’s always the single biggest chunk of new spending in every budget. Ardern says doctors and nurses are having to work extra shifts. Raised one GP who had to keep his shift open until midnight because there were no mental health workers to take the patient.

So why isn’t Labour throwing even more at health? Ardern says all they’re saying is put in enough to lift for inflation and population growth.

English says that “we need to try something different” – uses this to argue it’s not just about more funding. Need to try e-therapy over face-to-face – it’s just as good, he says. Ardern says he had nine years to spend it, and he responds they did put in $5 billion extra.

Free trade and foreign house buying

7:26: Back into it trade agreements and Labour’s desire to renegotiate the Korean free trade agreement. Ardern says she can legislate to ban non-resident foreign buyers within Labour’s first 100 days – there might have to be carve-outs while the agreements are renegotiated, she says.

[Alex says: So some foreigners won’t be allowed to buy property, but the ones we have trade agreements with will be able to still until renegotiation takes place?]

English says he doesn’t think South Korea would take any notice. It was a hard-fought, five-year negotiation.

Ardern asks English if they sought a carve out. English says NZ thought it couldn’t achieve such a position and that National wasn’t focussed on it. “We run a small open economy,” he says. Open to investment and trade, to get access to other markets.

Ardern says she thinks the government just didn’t have concern over it. So why is she concerned, Hosking asks – throwing out the 3% of properties are bought by non-resident foreigners. She replies that this doesn’t include properties bought by trusts or companies.

Why not try and renegotiate, she asks. Our friends and allies will understand the rationale for that.

Water

Onto the rural urban divide. English says Labour and the Greens have had a go at rural regions, selected them out and threatened them.

Quality of water will become an urban issue eventually because urban water is worse than rural stuff, he says – we’ll want to be working with urban people on cleaning that up, too, he says.

Ardern is asked why rural NZ has got offside with here. She believes there’s unity over the issue of clean waterways. Labour is targeting water bottlers, and there is a flow on effect from that, she says. Says the money will be given back to the communities it’s taken from

Farmers will benefit from NZ being viewed as clean and green, and farmers are environmentalists, she says. They themselves – the Waihou and Piako rivers need as much work as ever. The division seen has been stoked during this campaign, but not by Labour, she says.

English is asked why water quality kept getting worse over National’s nine years. He says work has been underway for five or six years. Government has made every effort with the land and water forum, and Iwi, he says.

Labour and the Greens had hopped on a populist bandwagon, he says. Meanwhile, National is already doing something about it. 90% of waterways are fenced on farms. It’s a random tax targeted at a handful of people when there are more widespread issues around nitrates and e-coli. This means it’s more sensible to go down the existing route of nitrate budgets.

Ardern is asked about Winston’s stance that the water tax wouldn’t be allowed. She says “It’s our policy.” Not doing coalition negotiations as well, she might well have added. The vast majority of farmers won’t be affected, she claims.

7:10:  And we’re off. This is a more intimate debate – no crowd clapping or anything.

Polls

English first why is he winning? People were focussing on the real differences and visions for New Zealand, he says – National has been attracting some voters back but there’s a few days to go. English says he believes it’s neck-and-neck between the two parties, rather than National in front so much.

Ardern is asked if she’s snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. She replies that she agrees with English that it’s neck and neck. The election will be decided by turnout, she says – will people get out to vote on election day? Labour isn’t complacent and will fight to the end she says – talks about optimism and New Zealanders wanting change and not running on auto-pilot.

Has she peaked? No it’s still neck and neck once support partners are put in, she says. Generational change? Ardern reckons young people are enrolling and voting. But if people are worried about their enrolment status, they need to go and vote early, she says. Can't enroll on election day.

English on the young vote: We’ll find out on Saturday. He’s trying to get out and meet as many people he can. Says people focussing on what policies will do for their families, businesses and the country.

Undecideds? English says the volatility in the polls shows there is a large undecided vote out there. (Tonight’s poll had undecideds at 13%).

Tax

Ardern is asked whether Labour’s tax stance is the kicker for Labour falling. No, she says. Tenfold the discussion has been health over tax. Bill and his team have stoked up a profoundly unfair debate on income tax, she says. The negative campaign from National has had an effect, she says.

English says it’s also a campaign over the next three years, which includes legislated income tax reductions. He’s using this to argue that Labour would raise income tax rates. People on the average wage on 1 April next year will pay $1,060 less tax a year, he says. Labour will have to get support to change the law.

Ardern rolls out the line that $400 million worth of the tax cuts will go to the top 10%. She tries to call him out for a campaign saying Labour would raise taxes. No one will pay more tax than they are today, she says.

On Labour’s tax working group, she’s asked whether it was a mistake not to rule changes out until after 2020. She says she listened to the people but is keeping the desire for urgency. She says she stands by pushing so hard, but also finding the balance. “I still stand by the work we’re undertaking.”

Fuel

English is asked about the Auckland fuel crisis – how much of it was his fault? English says it’s down to those private companies involved. The government is taking responsibility for helping fix it. He brings up the review from 2012 after which the amount of fuel stored in Wiri in tanks was doubled.

Hosking puts to Ardern that Labour were also told about this in 2005. Bill says we can afford $2 billion in tax cuts, she says. But in 2012 he couldn’t find $57 million for a second pipe. She says Labour would increase storage or a second pipe. English says National would expect the airlines and private companies to do that.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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247 Comments

Me oh My

Ardern's vision meets the goals of United Nation e.g. cleaning environment, solving child poverty, providing shelters to homeless people.
English' vision is short, his sounds like he is focusing on NZ strong economy to increase the income of average workers ($1000 for average income people from April next year).

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10

Hopefully commonsense is going to prevail and a good consistent government is going to remain.
It will be close but as Gareth Morgan has said surely there aren't enough idiots in NZ that would vote for Jacinda!
Her backup is not up to the job either going by what he has been saying and his previous performances.
There is very little depth and list of achievements by the Labour candidates can be counted on half a hand.

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Yep " good consistent government is going to remain"

Consistent with

More immigration
More traffic Jams
More waiting lists
More homelessness
More money laundering
More foreigners buying property
More school closures
More children in poverty
More renters
More debt

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Those "idiots" you refer to can see that she is a very smart cookie, with a good dose of humility thrown in as well, both things severely lacking among the majority of the members of the national party.

Thinking that she's as smart as a cookie is probably right, but I am guessing not what you actually meant.

As for thinking she is intelligent based on the unsustainable pandering that has been spun out lately... sounds like the definition of an idiot to me.

This is going to be a fun ride if labour gets in, because when they fail to do half of what they have set out the middle class will turn very quickly and we probably won't see another labour government for a long while. Most likely a good thing in the long run.

Well, National will just say anything to get into government, say they can't do it anymore because of x reason, then end up failing to do far more than half of what they set out to do.

Your point is flawed. You basically just said that's its justified to say anything because they are doing it. I guess that is what is happening with Labour but still not what I am looking for in leadership.

Consistent with:

More lefties squealing.

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Yeah really do you want to know what National has given to my fellow IT friends of mine recently here in Auckland - Unemployment! Yet another international IT company closed it's doors last month because it wasn't globally competitive due to the high running cost here, pushed up by high house prices.

That's what you morons don't realize, relying on a false economy through increasing property values pushes up a cities cost of living making it impossible for companies to be competitive and survive!

Think of it this way; Who will be left to pay the rent or are you happy to live in a ghost town. Talking of which when are you moving TTP??

That's what you get with a country not being managed, but things just allowed to happen.

Why did they set up in a expensive city like Auckland, set up to fail comes to mind. Should have gone to Specsavers first and they would have realised there are better places in NZ to set up a IT company.

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Rubbish.
The reason they set up in Auckland is because their labour and capital was most efficiently leveraged here.

This is the problem. For high tech industries, their mpk and mpl is highest in areas where there are many complementary industries. Anyone who thinks that running a 20 person development team is efficiently done by sparse location is an idiot.
Sure, the regions can be an okay location sometimes. But, when you are servicing the professional services sector it really doesn't make you competitive when you are based in Tokoroa.

Yes quite agree with you Numad. The other advantages that Auckland has is an international airport which is very useful for allowing global clients to visit and discuss projects with you. Plus it helps to be in an attractive location to gain high qualified workers for the IT sector who generate large amounts of capital through their expertise.

Surely IT companies can tele conference. Crickey I was doing that 20 years ago on car design and manufacturing. Must be much easier now.

I think you're confusing manufacturing with technology digital application development. Technology development takes more collaborative technical input. Most companies and clients prefer to have a main technology team onsite, that's not something you can do with a big team remotely.

Plus having lots of people work remotely, that really slows product creation especially if you're having to deal with different time zones.

Rubbish?? If it was rubbish they were not up to it.
Did you know you can get connecting flights out of Auckland. I suspect flying to Wellington would not be much longer than getting to the centre of Auckland. They failed so whatever they did was wrong, don't make excuses.

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Lefties squealing is that the best you have TTP.

What is a lefty anyway. Is a lefty a person who wants the best for NZ, if so then definitely a lefty.

I voted National 3 times , I think Im a swing voter. I thought National would be good for the country. But they have been unbelievably bad. If someone told me National would be this bad, I would have laughed in their face. How wrong would I have been.

Be good to read your comments in three years time under labour. What a mess that will be to clean up. we are still cleaning up after labour mismanagement last time

Sorry your comment is just plain BS

Ditto.

9 years to clean up...get a new broom bro

Couple of things. Dept to GDP was 7.8% when National were elected and the projection was for it to rise. Read last nights review on this site to see how well they have done in reducing that and external debt to 2.8%, truly amazing when you remember what a mess we were in 9 years ago. Labour even managed to get NZ into recession before the GFC.
Another thing not on your list is National are not giving out free flights to Australia for Cancer treatment as Labour had totally cocked up the health system and could not even look after cancer patients. I have a number of health issues that see me going to hospital often. I find it easy to get appointments and the service is much better than all the waiting I had to do when Clark was messing it up.
I think you need to drive from Wellington to Auckland to see what a amazing job National are doing with roading, once the Hamilton bypass is completed the journey will be so much better.
Don't live in a major City if you don't like traffic jams.

No National are not giving out free flights anywhere for cancer treatment. Ask the people in Dunedin where they are denied treatment and left to die. Says it all about National as far as I am concerned. You have reminded us that when Labour recognised people were suffering, they did whatever it took to get them the help that they needed, unlike National who leave people to die.

Wow! Our "dept" (debt?) to GDP is now 2.8% under National?
Sometimes I wonder why I even bother with official data when I can log in and get all the right info here!

Read last nights review on this site to see how well they have done in reducing that and external debt to 2.8%, truly amazing when you remember what a mess we were in 9 years ago. Labour even managed to get NZ into recession before the GFC.

National have certainly been very successful at selling that idea into the minds of supporters.

One of those ways rested on a base assumption that spending less is always better - something the state of NZ's healthcare should really cause people to question.

Moreover, Labour also paid down debt massively during the good times and began saving and investing for the known future timebomb of the boomer pension bubble, something National has kicked down the road for nine years before deciding "Oh, we'll just deal with this by giving the pension to all boomers at 65 then raising the age for all the younger Kiwis who follow, that'll be fine." At least Labour invested in a bit of user-pays rather than simply relying on living off the back of younger Kiwis.

I guess a 20% rise in GST, (that was never going to happen under National!) has to go somewhere....

More utter crap. National raised GST to 15% on 1 October 2010. Incidentally, a 20% rise would make it 35%. I am not a religious man but God save NZ because our voters probably wont.

Didge, you are not smart.

"More utter crap. National raised GST to 15% on 1 October 2010. Incidentally, a 20% rise would make it 35%. I am not a religious man but God save NZ because our voters probably wont."

Tell us, what is 15/12.5...

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As much as I don't like all these foreign property buyers the thought of a Labour Green socialist government is simply frightening.

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Some would see that as cutting your nose off to spite your face

I see it more as cutting off someone else's nose to spite my eyes.

I prefer to call it the lesser of two evils.

I prefer to call that a strange definition of lesser.

As much as I don't like all these foreign property buyers the thought of a Labour Green socialist government is simply frightening.

The fear of communism among middle NZ is almost palpable at the moment. What's more, the Hosk is not even center stage and relatively quiet.

I have come to think the label "neoliberal" is a term of abuse nowadays. "Socialism" has never frightened me in the past or now.

Yes, whilst they also quite conveniently ignore the benefits they currently receive from socialised benefits. Myopic greed runs rampant in some parts NZ society.

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Pretty easy to see what has happened, all the Winnie voters have headed back to the Nats, they might have the highest % but they will be Nigel No Mates and Winnie could be Losie

Popcorn ready, waiting for the Left's spin on this. Personally I can't wait until the only poll that counts is done on Saturday. The stress of the numbers changing is worse than watching the World Cup win against the French. Just like the result of that game, there is no prize for coming second.

The right's panicky spin on the last pole was way funnier

This could be more like the Lion's tour - a tie.

But almost certainly not a bow tie

Green has got my vote!

I've already voted green, cleaning up Auckland's rivers is very important to me.

Hippo poo rules !

-to be paid for by higher taxes on all the dirty kulaks

Forget about the Auckland rivers. Just go behind some of the houses in the suburbs, more pollution than being done by Farmers. The RMA has no teeth.

Haha DGZ ! Yes those Greens are interesting aren't they !

"Green has got my vote!"

Only the $20s are green here in NZ DGZ...but we know what you mean. Cash money all the way, am I right?

Labour has my vote since we have to get rid of National but other wise I would be happy to support the Greens more fully. Plus Labour does have stronger policies to better support our real economies for the long term if they can work in tandem then all the better.

Sorry your comment is just plain BS

NZ's at the point where they poor have been forgotten about, ignored, brushed under the carpet. The only way is to invest in digging these people out and giving them a chance. Poverty is perpetual. When middle income families can't even get into property in some cities in New Zealand you know it's time to try something else, and that something else is Labour this time.

Raising the overall standard of health and education will do far, far more good for the nation as a whole than a lousy tax break, and if you can't see that - you don't deserve to call yourself a New Zealander

Labour and/or Jacinda and/or Robertson certainly led with their chin by gushing out tax after tax. Naive going on gauche. Makes you wonder if to be in government they may turn out to be just as hopeless and hapless as they have been in opposition. Sadly, in comparison to past leaders, elections, PM contenders, manifestos, this lot, ie either major party for a start, seems not much better than a battle of the bunnies running lolly scrambles.

I'd hate to count the amount of people that have happily told me they are voting green

Because that number is large or because it is small?

Personally I still think its neck and neck and shamefully with Winston still the likely kingmaker - but NZF's slump is massive suggesting more than I thought must have heard Guyon Espener's demolition of Peter's in that recent interview where Peter's had to back track massively on much of what he had been touting in recent time - a charlatan who bullies interviewers when he can't answer simple questions, but ran up against one that backed him into a corner of his own making.

However, if this poll actually proved to be correct, but NZF had slipped below 5% and its votes lost, does that give National a win with its existing coalition partners ?

If tomorrow's poll puts NZ first under 5% again then Peter's support will probably drop to 3% at election. Something for 80% of the voters to be cheerful about regardless of whether Labour/Greens or National win.

That was an incredible interview - I wondered if he had been on the turps the night before and was still waiting for the morning hair of the dog to kick in.

It was an incredible bad interview for both.

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How depressing

Sweet as.

Nah, we're in for a change of government. Paddy's turned;

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/opinion/2017/09/patrick-gower-national-gui...

Tomorrow it will be Mike.

I'll be sure to post it then :-).

Kate. Surely you must know people are much happier to be lied to, than having to endure the truth.

Reflects the stuff poll. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.

In the bag! National supporters might as well stay at home on Saturday looking at rental property investments. Market will go crazy on Sunday.

Nah they will all get out and vote to ensure VICTORY

... why bother ? ... the polls say that victory for the Gnats is as good as in the pipeline ... a done deal ....

Best stay home , watch some rugby ... spy on the tenants of all your houses ... ... check that the Filippinos are squeezing your cows correctly ...

... yup ... Wild Bill is the man , assuredly so ... trust in the polls , my friends ... houses will go up 20 % on Sunday ... sure thing ... stay home little Gnatties , and count the profits ...

@ Gummy Bear Hero and Nimbo: Nice try.

The Devil you know and all that....

Yep - not surprised.

The thought of a Labour/Green coalition is just too much for the majority of voters to stomach. (Labour ought to have distanced itself from The Greens very early in the campaign period - or vice versa.)

Seriously, Labour and The Greens are hugely lacking in experience. It would be a struggle for such a coalition to form a credible Cabinet....... and the flow-on effects for NZ would be highly negative.

As for Winston, he's had a fair innings. This actor added a bit of colour and entertainment over the years. But it's now time for him to bow out graciously, a la Peter Dunne. The pair of them are still worth a round of applause, even though neither achieved too much. (Anyway, both will go out on a very sweet Parliamentary pension.)

Agree with you. Labour and Greens would be too much to stomach.

Hi PointMade,

You're a bit too much to stomach as well.

Time you learned to think for yourself - rather than parroting other people's commentaries.

Your children will do that

That's harsh. His/Her membership is less than 2 days old.

Likewise youself

Interesting to say that Nationals attack on Labour seems to have worked, is it possible that the last Colmar Brunton poll was a rogue one, especially as the Reid Research one the same week had national well ahead.

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Polls or no Polls. This time Jacinda Government.

I admire your unrelenting optimism, but not your political persuasion.

Optimism based on mood of the people of New Zealand.

Can save this comment as will know in 3 days.

For the reason can check my comment below (seperate)

Fill your boots. Safe to say I won't be checking back in here for a while if National loses, but I'm sure you'll remind me when I post again, if that's the case.

Will I lol

NAH

Despite the poll it's too close to call. The polls are highly volatile

We agree on something .

Black & Blue or Red & Green

Black and blue, that is what you look like after taking a hiding

Now that is wishful thinking

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Bill is outright lying on tv

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Yes if the NZ public cannot see through Bill's outright lies then they deserve what they get.

The usual line from the Left once they lost .. jumping the gun a bit ?

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Yeah.
He lied a number of times, or at the very least stretched the truth.
We'll get what we deserve

We'll get what we deserve

Yes - a new government.

NAH Kate never

Fritz and Didge,

You guys are just sore that Labour has plummeted in the latest polls.

National will race down the home straight on Saturday night - and form a Government by Monday. Mark my words.

TTP

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Tothepoint

Yeah I am sour. So what.

I am sour that we may well get another 3 years of mediocre 'do nothing' governance, further descent into growing inequality, and further favouring of a dead end ponzi economy.

Lovers of short termism, self interest and greed should be happy.

Hi Fritz,

You can say what you like.......

But it's stable government that I want.

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Stable mediocrity which continues the country's descent?

Both Andrew Little and Jacinda Ahern have admitted that NZ's economy is basically strong - in good shape.

That didn't come about through unstable government. It came about because National has a skilful, competent Cabinet.

Any opposition faces a major challenge in unseating a government that has presided over a strong economy. So Labour always faced an uphill battle. But it has made too many blunders - especially with its tax policy and link with The Greens......

Labour simply isn't ready to govern.

whoever wins this will only be there for 3 years, we are heading into a period of recession. The government has little control over this.

"That didn't come about through unstable government. It came about because National has a skilful, competent Cabinet."

Bullshit. Our economy is strong because of a series of natural disaster that poured billions of international insurance funds into our country.

Or are you saying National caused the earthquakes?

It was gay sex that caused the earthquakes, wasn't it?

are you suggesting the Nats will rule alone or with ACT, Maori & NZF???

Winnie has been kingmaker in almost all polls over last 4 weeks

The Maori Party's constituency has made it very clear where they want them to go. They may only have one MP, so peed off are the voters with them. There will be no Maori Party in a National govt.

I prefer nationals lies over labours...

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Tell me what Jacinda has lied on?

I agree. They are both LIARS!!

Hi DGZ,

You seem to be flip-flopping all over the place the last week or so.

You're as bad as Labour with its tax policy.......

Sorry DGZ National doesn't have a magic wand to bring back all that lovely overseas hot money. Can't you see the fear in Bill's eyes? It's time to support a real economy if you want your tenants to keep their employment going to pay the rent.

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I would prefer Honesty as the best policy, not another 9 years of deceit and ripping off Peter to pay..Paul and all those rental, mental, ripoff artists, leveraging and screwing the current ...system-atic theft by design. and bludging feted by and supported by overpaid Nationalistic ...plunderers under the Table with Chinese Millionaires....plus others. sitting in the Trough.

Some call them Farmers...but that would be just Milking the same....Trough....in another way.

If one knows what is truly going on, with Corporatism milking it too. It is a money go round.....for an out of Kilter World....run by the wrong people, for the wrong reasons.

Debt. is now money...so ....the story goes.....Interest is miniscule.......otherwise it would all FOLD.

Believe it..or not....the Money is NOT there....But they keep talking it up and up....

Lying...it is called. not Mathematics.

I actually was a long-time National voter till the last election. Truth be told, it's been their dishonesty and ethics that turned me off this current lot initially, followed secondly and later by how they're running the country as I started to dig deeper into it. It does concern me the number and level of unethical things this current government seems to have gotten up to compared to previous ones.

The previous Labour crowd had a couple of instances, but these guys just seem to have plumbed new depths, and - having spent years in the Third World too - I've started to value low corruption and worry much more about increasing levels of unethical and morally corrupt behaviour.

Just last night, it seems like we're going full on Orwellian newspeak:

When addressing comments on the housing crisis, Mr English claimed the housing market is going "faster than it's ever gone". However figures released just this week found the market has slumped, with 20 percent fewer houses being sold than this time last year.

It's flat out lying. It's Trump-like. It's disgusting and sad that NZers give a free pass to a PM who lies outright and repeatedly to gain and keep power. Not to mention the Todd Barclay affair, in very recent times.

Then another lie: http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/patrick-gower-national-pl...

I've since then also become frustrated with National for how much they've essentially seemed to stack things in favour of their older voter bloc at the expense of young Kiwis and upcoming generations. It seems incredibly selfish and short-term-ist to me. I also worry their views on the the less fortunate in society have become a little cartoon-like rather than grounded in reality, resulting in unduly punitive stances.

Like you Rick, I used to be a National supporter and voter (believe it or not). But the last 3 years has put me off - under the current group and policies...

Its the narcissism that has crept in that has put me off...I used to be a Bill English fan but I can no longer stand to listen to the guy....the culture they've developed (and that appears to be rubbing off on a significant part of NZ society) isn't attractive....and if a recession comes along (and/or housing market tanks) this team is done...

I don't think I'll be voting for either National or Labour this election....Greens might be my vote (for the very first time...scary...)

Yep and as for David Parker and the water royalty - it will be used for environmental purposes after iwi have had their share, next meeting it was it can be used for roading and last meeting - it doesn't have to be used for environment- Councils can use it for rates rebates if they like, and there may be different rates for different folks. So just what is Labours water royalties for? Sounds like the message hasn't got to the Labour environment spokesman and he just makes it up as he goes.

Agreed. Traditional Labour double dealing. Cannot be trusted not to tax grab at any opportunity and cannot be trusted in any way at all with the revenue as a result. Why can they not come up with policy that does not involve first and foremost, grabbing more tax. It is like some sort of bloated belching pipeline, the more tax that flows in one end the more waste flows out the other. It would be refreshing to say the least, if they concentrated for a change on the latter end. And that goes for National as well!.

To fix all the things like health and most especially mental health, education, social housing and any number of services that have been let run down, will require much more money, I have yet to see a government raise extra money by holding a cake stall outside the Beehive

Given the mixed messages various Labour MPs have been giving lately if Jacinda called for a cake stall to raise money, it would look more like a garage sale - all sorts of goods but unlikely to be any cakes.

Mike looked like he wanted to rip Bill a new one.

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Go back through that debate to about 15 or so minutes in, when the topic is foreign buyers, Hosking tries the old "it's only 3%" schtick, Ardern counters that by saying we all know that is BS, camera pans to English and his body language is very telling. He knows 3% is BS as well, absolutely no doubt about it.

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When someone has denied for the past Two Prime Ministers that we have a 'House Issue' with Overseas Buyers,then what is one more lie on TV just before Election.

That someone jumped the Gun and sold his Mansion to one of those nameless .........Dare I....
(Chinese...yes I actually said it...)...people before the election, speaks volumes........even if Jacinda dared not say it........I will.

Before you vote.. Nothing changes...

Read this from 2014...Nothing changes, same people....same objective.....Do you trust these people with your money.??.

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/69723/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-...

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Nahh, it's time for change! High time to rid us of Nationals false economy, selling off NZ bit by bit to the highest bidder and from directly under your feet! Stop being a sheep.

If National win at least they'll be the ones to deal directly with the issues they've created - housing, immigration, poverty, health, suicide rate.

Would love to see the housing market crash and burn under their watch, including the recession it would cause.

It's a pretty flimsy silver lining, but I can't help feeling a little anticipatory schadenfreude for when National has to deal with the consequences of their last 9 years. Sucks for all the innocent victims though.

Oh and the corruption and scandals that will come from a fourth-term National government will no doubt be truly spectacular.

Yes National has created the most division I have ever seen in NZ society.

Mike Hosking for PM...
But seriously, Jacinda didn't seem to be attacking enough, and Bill seemed to be way too relaxed, with a glow reflecting the latest poll numbers.
Liked Jacinda's punchline about "Bill discovering poverty last week' and the 'Auto pilot' thingy, but is it too little too late ?
Saturday will tell.
Winston must be the one who has now got the worry shakes, aye.

The Hosk? Perk benefit costs will be off the richter. The top brass will be driving around in canary yellow Lamborghinis and wearing silly shoes.

Hopefully wearing something else as well. But then with a personality and bank balance like that, who would need to notice.

Worry shakes? Them be the whisky shakes

Bill won that.
Even if it was through dark arts and deceit

So who won the last debate tonight? let's do our own poll ... but please be honest !!

I sensed that Jacinda was caught on her back foot a few times, she seemed to be giving in and her smiles were a bit more artificial .. and although trying to be mildly aggressive but Bill came out more confidant and acted like a real PM ...

He looked like he was lying through his teeth and knew it full well

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I loved Bryan Bruce's doco "who owns NZ" critique of neoliberilism. It got a severe beat down on the Herald. Too much truth for comfort I suspect. As usual Bryan Bruce hits the nail on the head. If you missed it here it is.

http://dropmefiles.com/r9vMt

Herald poll is open. I voted even though I'm out of the Country and didn't watch. Almost as much a sin as enrolling in an electorate I don't live in.

I won't vote in that poll.
Because I would vote that Bill won that, but I will still vote for labour.
If I and others like me respond like that in the poll, it will be distorted into a party vote poll

Wow 61% think that bill won the debate on the Herald Vote ...yep his confidence payed back !!

NO WAY NATIONAL CAN WIN!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRR

First time you get so loud DGZ, lost your vote to Greens I take it?

Video of Ardern in there afterwards now. English to follow. Cheers

English in there now too.

Where have the rest of NZ First been ? I don't think I've seen Ron Mark on Tv at all , Tracey Martin maybe once. Shane Jones , yes , but only in relation to the seat he is campaigning in .

Ron Mark was line dancing, singing and strumming his guitar in his trade mark cowboy hat in Carterton Main Street weekend before last!

Seriously folks why are some people so scared of a Labour Govt. I've seen a few changes of governments in my lifetime now and I reckon there is about 1 inch of difference when it comes to Blue or Red. Good and bad.

Scared of labour because:
1/ Will have to be in coalition with extreme left Greens with their economy destroying ideas.
2/ Ridiculous/mendacious fiscal plan that assumes 4.5% GDP growth per year and 5% revenue growth per year. Will drop us right back in the spending hole that National has just spent 9 years digging us out of.
3/ Massively increased tax bills and borrowing to cover ~20billion in spending promises in Green coalition.
4/ 1970's style industrial relations - basically a union wish-list with all the horrors that rigid labour laws and enablement of stand-over-threat unionism bring, killing businesses that can't pass on increased costs and leading to fear of taking on new employees. Pretty much guarantees low growth/recession and much higher unemployment.
5/ Targeting productive sector to pay off non-productive urbanites, Urban clientalism that will foster greater urban/rural divide and kill economic growth.
6/ David Parker is only front-bencher with any commercial or ministerial experience, but is only #10 on list.
7/ Ardern, while likeable seems intellectually weak - not someone we want to be making the 'captains calls'.

excellent summary - well said

Can someone explain to me how National supporters talk about Labour getting us into a spending 'hole' if elected, while National have just added $50billion to government debt during their stay in office?

So they've dug us out of a spending hole by running down infrastructure and services (creating a future liability) while at the same time clocking up $50billiin in debt?

So they used a spending hole to not address issues and to fix a spending hole?

Labour left large structural deficit due to their ramping up of spending without increased revenue (and had managed to bring us into recession before the GFC hit). Treasury were predicting 10years of deficits before National came to power. And then GFC + Earthquakes hit as well costing 10's of billions. National did a very good job of paring back expenditure and pulling us out of deficit financing, but there was still a lot of debt accumulated while doing so. With good GDP growth restored by National after the GFC NZ's debt-to-GDP ratio has been slowly falling since 2014.

On 'running down infrastructure and services':
The estimated resident population of New Zealand was 4.28 million at 30 September 2008. At 30 June 2017, New Zealand’s estimated resident population was 4.79 million, an 11.9% increase. Over that same period there were 25% more nurses and 43% more doctors. So we have more health professionals per capita than when Labour left office.
When National came into power there were 118,000 elective surgeries each year, increasing by 1400 a year.
Under National the number of elective surgeries carried out by district health boards (DHBs) had increased by 56,000 to 174,000 surgeries every year.
Around 85 per cent of 18-year olds now get NCEA Level 2 – up from less than 70 per cent in 2008.
The improvement among Māori students is even better. Three out of every four Māori students now achieve NCEA Level 2. A few years ago, it was around half. Also more kids attending pre-schools

On infrastructure - Earthquakes have absorbed a lot of spending that would have happened elsewhere. But we have still had some - like Waterview tunnel, Holiday Highway, Waikato expressway, South Auckland Motorway widening (nearing completion), Kapiti expressway, Transmission Gully , Christchurch southern motorway and a lot of smaller stuff.

Less people on welfare now than when National came to power, even though there has been substantial population increase. Less criminal recidivism (the number of people going on to re-offend after completing a sentence has decreased by 25 per cent from 2011), less children in poverty as average incomes have gone up substantially under national (discounting the ridiculous definition of child poverty as being a household with less than 60% of median income by which measure North Korea has less children in poverty than NZ.

The strongly left-wing biased media and opposition party press releases are hardly reliable sources for a balanced view of government achievements - it is emotive rhetoric without reference to data. National have made mistakes, but by most measures things have been improving under their governance with focus on evidence based policy decisions.

Treasury were predicting 10years of deficits before National came to power.

This one's is completely untrue, as far as I have been able to find. It's a John Key-ism that's been later attributed erroneously to Treasury, from what I can tell. The "massive structural deficit" line relies on a base assumption that less spending and tax is always better, however, that in today's light doesn't look that great, given the problems we're having with health - despite the fact National is only spending $1,700 less per household than Labour was.

At the time as part of that spending, Labour paid down debt significantly, without which National would not have had the room to borrow to cut taxes following the GFC.

It's also pertinent that Labour was using some of that spending to try to address issues that were known to be heading toward NZ in the future, ones National has more or less kicked down the road for others to deal with. E.g. the Cullen Fund was set up with the express intent of addressing the demographic boomer timebomb hitting the pension, via pre-funding. National's eventual act when pushed? Instead, give the pension to all boomers at age 65, then reduce the entitlement for following generations...Another example of living at the expense of preceding and succeeding generations.

So you had paying down of debt and the pre-funding of the boomer Pension timebomb as two components of spending that was only $1,700 more per household per year than National are running under the banner of "sound fiscal management" while people are dying because there aren't enough beds in hospitals.

There needs to be a bit more put into questioning what is sound management than just a basic dollars per year spend, especially given the way the quality of some services seems to have been affected by National's frozen funding (recall the Police issue, where Judith Collins got to the point of calling Bill English out [Source])

For example, in the NZ Initiative article you reference occasionally for the "structural deficit" argument:

In a nutshell, the National-led governments will have achieved a fiscal surplus in 2014-5 after years of hard grind in holding down the growth in real spending, while population growth reduced real spending per capita and per household fractionally.

In so doing, it has preserved most of the increase in government spending per capita achieved by the Labour-led governments between 2004 and 2009.

This ongoing level of spending is much higher than would be necessary to fund the provision of current goods and services of a nature that only government can provide, such as immigration services, police, the courts, defence and public administration generally.

Notably absent in the NZ Initiative's list of what the government should be funding? Healthcare and education.

It comes down to asking what is really sound management? Reducing tax and running down some public services - as we've seen over the last few terms till things get bad enough and complaints loud enough that budgets increase for these? Lowering taxes instead of providing to young Kiwis what was provided to your own generation? Only addressing the boomer pension timebomb by keeping the pension at 65 for them then upping the age for younger generations, instead of pre-funding using some of the wealth in the good times?

Lest we also forget, National has simply increased funding to the Accommodation Supplement and Working for Families ("communism by stealth", as they called it) because they haven't taken effective action on the housing crisis. Subsidising business owners and property investors rather than addressing the underlying issues.

I'm just not 100% sure that kicking folk off the benefit, freezing budgets for a while and importing many more people over that time to prop up the economy has been the best thing for the country or the most sound fiscal management.

I've not found anything from the Treasury for a ten year forecast. The 2008 forecast was for 2009 to slip into a small deficit, with the annual deficit increasing every year thereafter up to $3.2 billion annually by 2013. Maybe not the 10 years of deficits promised, but definitely on an increasing deficit trend out to the end of their forecast range. 10 years, maybe a bit of hyperbole, but with support from the nearer term (5 year outlook) forecast of ever increasing deficits.

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/prefu2008/021.htm

The OBEGAL (excluding the NZS Fund retained revenue) shifts into a deficit position in the current year of $31 million which worsens to $3.2 billion by the end of the forecast period.

Yeah - seems more right, and somewhat reasonable following a global financial crisis and the slowdown. Would be interesting to know how much if any of that "structural deficit" was amounts allocated to paying down debt and investing in pre-funding the boomer pension bubble. I'll have to mark that as a task for later.

This forecast occurred prior to the worst of the GFC. The nasty stuff was still a dim and dark future in 2008. See my note below in regards to pension deltas, I'm updating it shortly.

Ah yep, seems like the GFC hit us later in 2008 according to Treasury, with the drought and high fuel and food prices hitting earlier:

The New Zealand economy entered recession in early 2008, before the effects of the global financial crisis set in later in the year. A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

BTW, is your $1400 less per household expenditure that you quote in constant year dollars, or is it not inflation adjusted? I'll take a few minutes to search, and if it is not inflation adjusted, I'll update this comment.

Whoops, I misremembered my amount - checked and they're spending $1,700 less (all in 2013 dollars) according to the NZ Initiative:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9840884/New-Zealands-de... I've corrected this above.

This one's also interesting:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96756247/is-national-really-be...

From your first link, which is not very favorable to the last Labour fiscal prudence.

In the year ended June 2004, core Crown operating spending was about $35,800 per household in fiscal year 2013 dollars, yet the government still had a fiscal surplus of 3.8 per cent of GDP.

By the year ended June 2009, the government had lifted spending per household by 21 per cent to $43,400, in the same dollars, and there was a fiscal deficit of 2.1 per cent of GDP.

Electioneering spending enticements, such as interest-free student loans, Kiwisaver subsidies and working for families, were part of this spending transformation.

Despite recession and tax cuts, core Crown tax revenue in the year ended June 2009 was almost exactly the same, at $37,100 in fiscal year 2013 dollars, as in the year ended June 2004.

On these statistics, the switch from fiscal surplus to deficit between 2004 and 2009 was caused by an unsustainable spending splurge.

Based on the 2013 Budget night figures, the small fiscal surplus in the year ended June 2015 will be achieved with core Crown operating spending of around $41,700 per household and core Crown tax revenue of around $37,500 per household, both in fiscal year 2013 dollars.

I'd also look at an article that was posted here back in June of this year. It has some good data and detailed comparisons.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/88090/brian-fallow-looks-spending-our-...

So the time series tracking spending in real per capita terms, and the shifting shares of spending by the major classifications, which Toby Moore at Victoria University of Wellington and Derek Gill at the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research have compiled is a valuable contribution to the fiscal debate.

Now that we have had a ninth Budget from the current Government it is possible to compare its record on this score with that of the previous Labour-led administration.

The difference is stark.

The Government’s operating spend in the coming year will be just 0.6% higher in real per capita terms than in the fiscal year just ending.

And it will be 3.5% lower than it was in fiscal 2009, the last year of Michael Cullen’s tenure as Finance Minister.

That in turn was 24.5% higher than it had been in 2000, before his first Budget.

That point-to-point comparison and the difference between plus 24.5% and minus 3.5% is a bit unfair to National, however.

The change of government coincided with the nastiest recession since the 1970s, which boosted welfare spending in Cullen’s last year and meant a correspondingly higher starting point for Bill English.

It also ignores the fact that the peak year for government spending in real per capita terms, and measured against the size of the economy, was fiscal 2011 when the Christchurch earthquakes hit an economy in the feeble early stages of recovery.

Looking instead at the average real per capita spending over the terms of the two Governments, the Vic/NZIER data indicates a decline of 11.7% between Labour and National.

The declining trend in core Crown expenditure since the 2011 peak, both in real per capita terms and as a share of GDP, is even more stark when you consider that it has coincided with a relentless rise in the share of the Budget taken up by New Zealand Superannuation.

I agree with a lot of what you say Foyle, but voting National gives us rampant population growth and NZ property for sale without restrictions on the international market.

It's a tricky balance.

As long as we choose immigrants who will integrate then long term more NZers will help grow internal markets and make us less reliant on export industries, though it takes a while for that to happen (and for english as a foreign language immigrants it is really only their Children who become fully integrated). I personally think that Chinese make excellent immigrants - industrious, good citizens, though not happy about the nearly exclusively chinese neighbourhoods that are forming.

The $100k's-$1000k's in foreign currency that each wealthy immigrant has bought into NZ has been preserving our balance of trade, and injecting a lot of money into NZ economy to pay for all those Audis I see driving around Auckland. Without it our economy would likely have tanked - i suspect National have run an open borders policy for exactly that reason - though they haven't been honest about their fiscal motivation for doing so, and I also think that if any new govt tries to stop that NZ economy will tank. If we want to stop it we need to grow alternative sources of income to replace it. More intensive agriculture (ie more irrigation of Canterbury) being the easiest one to make happen.

The Auckland housing problem is in my view entirely about lack of spending on road infrastructure - which has made commuting from urban boundary untenable for many due to >1hour commutes. Not an option if you have kids and 2 parents who have to commute to work - which for most covers ~20 years (half their working life). Auckland needs to spend probably $50-100k per household on major new motorways, most likely in tunnels, or wait for some other revolution in transport (autonomous cars?).

spot on - the thousands of foreigners who came on the investment category alone brought in millions in investment money in addition to their added consumption weight into the economy .... I suppose any Gov who allows such a unpopular back door economy remedy ( like Canada did ages ago, and now became the Norm there) would not be so upfront about it until results are felt.
The side effect of this economic injection would inevitably be the housing market inflation - however it is a tricky balance and something had to give way for the common good. Unfortunately, people expect it all to happen at no cost !!

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Bill had no answere when asked why did they not negotiate in TPP.

Do we want a leader who lies for power

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/patrick-gower-national-pl...

Before election were declining and now for power

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/bill-english-discovered-p...

If this is true is very Disturbing. Read and Think as may help one to rise above vested interest and vote for the Country

MUST READ

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1192...

Positive VS Negative

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924576

Alex Tarrant, you post a video of Ardern at the top of this article but none of English, why ?

Clearly she was just first out of the traps for the aftermath, you will see Billy boys a bit further down. Laudy you have a poll to be proud of and you are still not happy.

Hi Yvil,

Whose face would you use to attract readers?

Don't forget, Alex has to earn a living.

My wife's Lol

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Jacinda was also correct in saying that who believes the data that foreign buyers are only 3%.

Data Manipulated to Lie.

Jacinda doesn't know. She has no information on the matter - and neither does anyone else.

So she should learn to keep her mouth shut. Shooting from the hip does her no favours.

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All you had to see was English's face when the camera panned to him straight after that. His body language clearly demonstrates he knows 3% is BS as well. The ability to read people's body language can be very handy, it can.

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It shows how rude and arrogant few are and feel that what they see and feel for vested interest is correct and rest all are nonsense.

This arrogance has to be humbled.

Like it or not. Next PM is Jacinda.

AGREED !!! She shouldn't be shooting from the hip. Nice one TTP !!

Is this profile actually TTP's second account? To which he's doing an early character assisination to avoid suspicion before piling on pro-National and property posts?

The names are just too similar to not seem suspicious

It's his new wee babe, born just a couple of days ago, of course he might have to do the tip tapping for him/her

Yep TTP has created a new identity, as cover against a Labour win.
Too embarrassed turn up as TTP on Sunday - Im betting.

I think the ones who do this, and there is more than just the one, do it to try and make it look like there are more people than there really on this site, helping to push their barrow.

She shouldn't, but he shouldn't be outright lying on television when he was disproved by literally everyone else

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Yes, and John Key selling his house to a buyer from China is completely co-incidental, and would only ever happen once every 33 times anyone sells property in Auckland. /sarc

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Everyone knows. Everyone who's tried to buy a house in Auckland, and been outbid by a Chinese buyer, everyone who's sold a house in Auckland and caused the ripple effect in other regions, everyone in the other regions who've seen their property prices escalate due to the influx of cashed-up Aucklanders who've sold to Chinese, every real estate agent, every lawyer dealing with property sales, every person who's attended a property auction, everyone who's seen the demographic of their neighbourhood change. Everyone knows.

Including Bill English

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Whichever party gets the baton after Saturday they will have a 9 year pile of dung to shovel away.

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Ardern says she thinks the government just didn’t have concern over it. So why is she concerned, Hosking asks – throwing out the 3% of properties are bought by non-resident foreigners. She replies that this doesn’t include properties bought by trusts or companies.

Ardern is quite right, well can all see the Auckland housing market is on the decline since China clamped down of capital flight early this year. We need a foreign buyers tax to stop political parties for creating a false economy as National has done.

That 3% foreign buyer figure is nothing more than BS and we all know it!

Personally, I think that National will win on Saturday.......... and that Joseph Parker will win on Sunday.

TTP

I cant remember an election with as many big shifts in the polls. Exciting right down to the finish line.

Only in this race 3rd place gets the gold, and this time it goes to Winston!!!!

Winston will be kicked into touch.

you actually might be right TTP,

you wish!

keep dreaming

Good idea, wake me up on Saturday ... I have stocked the champagne in case NATIONAL WINS by 48% .. lol

I wont be celebrating whoever wins, I just want immigration to be reduced, foreign buyers to be stopped and the education rorts to fixed.

This may get us back to normalcy, in 10 to 15 years. If National gets in then its going to be a 4 hour journey up the sothern motorway to Auckland. Joy.

That's why I want Winston in the mix especially if National get the most votes.

Jacinda looked rattled in the debate.

Yes, it seems that poll results do have a negative effect on a positive young leader .. miscalculation and taxes fired back regardless of shiny spinning

You got something correct for a change, "a positive young leader."

She has of course also lost her grandmother this week - funeral tomorrow. I'm surprised she has been able to maintain her composure to the degree she has. And she has also instructed the media not to comment on the matter which is another positive indication of her moral character. Win or lose, she's a keeper.

If she loses, she will quickly have to stamp her authority on her parliamentary team and do well in the house, otherwise the pretenders to the crown will be sharpening their knives, especially Kelvin Davis who doesn't look like he's comfortable being deputy.

Don't think so - as I said, she's a keeper. From my understanding, no one has ever pulled in this type of tsunami in campaign donations. The mood for change is unmistakable and she will be the one to bring it about. No better communicator in Parliament;

https://yournz.org/2017/08/18/arderns-adjournment-speech/

... if she loses ... let's hope that they go into the 2020 election with a fully costed new tax plan ... and not announce a month before the election that they'll have a tax working group do it for them , and trust us , we'll only select the good bits to make you all happier ....after the election ....

9 years wasted so far .... 9 years of hard labour on the opposition bench , and still no credible tax plan ... don't make it 12 years wasted , team !

"Every heart knows its own pain, and even in laughter the heart may ache."

Condolances to her family. Sometimes timing in life seems very hard.

Heres another reason NZF might be worth giving your party vote to

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/national-video/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503075&gal...

The truth is that National has a far stronger team.
Labour, has a young lady with no life experience and parliamentary nous just shooting out these idealistic things that she hopes people will respond to.
How the hell could she possibly have a caucus with her mishmash of fellow Labourites as she wouldn't have a clue as to which ones had enough abilities to give the portfolios to!

Hey Boy; I think most people under estimated the UK's Margaret Thatcher and probably thought the same about her when she first took ran for parliament. How wrong they were.

She would seek guidance from Dear Leader Helen when selecting caucus.

Yup Paula Benefit is a real A player, so is Nick Smith..

Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Jonathan Coleman, Jian Yang the list is virtually beginningless

Or, The Man 2, perhaps the truth is that National have far more connections and political donations from CCP activists.

Added them up as reported in the Brady paper as reported/linked in The Herald;

$1,356,976.80

since coming into power.

Magic Weapons: China's political influence under Xi Jinping
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4053774-Magic-Weapons-China-s-pol...

A lengthy but useful read.

The Herald summary is here - and some very interesting comments by prominent New Zealanders promoting CCP Government initiatives;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1192...

You have to laugh at the farmer who held up a sign in Morrinsville stating that Jacinda was a "pretty Communist".

Farmers may be upset with the water tax proposal however knock out dairy /wool/meat sales to China and it will be the least of their worries.

For balance, $83,000 in political donations to Labour are reported and a further $366,115 to Goff's mayoral campaign.

The money will of course likely move with the government of the day.

Only NZ First have publicly recorded their unease in two separate press releases;

http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/china_s_growing_control_in_new_zealand_must_be...

http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/kiwis_right_to_be_concerned_over_spy_claims

Is that the team that includes Paula "I haven't read that report" Bennett (deputy PM no less) and Steve "11.7B andfailedeconomics" Joyce? The double dipper from dipton and Oravita Collins? To say nothing of the likes of Smith, Barclay, Yang. Yes, a dream team indeed.

I dont like being told what to do I left high school years ago so therefore I have made a vote and have not supported Jacinda. I have daughter that is first time voter even she can work lack of substance from Labour.
As for free education for first year students at uni most of them dont know exactlty what they want , what a waste of tax payers money where at least the average wage earner can pick up a grand.
As for NZ First what a wasted vote , the Greens cant even agree with tax policies , they should be concentrating on planting trees and saving our water .
Winston is back in future almost like Dr WHO back in time

So did the boomer generation know exactly what they wanted to do when they left school so it was okay for them to have minimal tertiary education costs? But kids these days are so confused that they don't deserve the opportunity?

Actually yes Independent Observer it was fair that we had minimal costs because my father and many others like him were paying a Muldoon 66% tax rate. You and your kids could get the same if you choose to vote in such a Govt, Fortunetely most Kiwis prefer to make their own life decisions rather than having the Govt direct them into what they may not want to have otherwise paid for (or their parents force to pay for through taxes).

Stop being one of these uninformed lefties who talks about the old "free education" when they have obviously zero understanding of the situation then (or wish to deliberate mislead others)

A good dose of your high taxes were going into farmers hands, encouraging them to break vertical hill sides

PA - Haven't you learned anything from this election?
It's okay to subsidise farmers.

Farmers and landlords......National - isn't deliverying for all NZ'ers. Its delivering for farmers and landlords...

So did you benefit from it?

We have a different view.....There are no issues, we should not uncover. All will be revealed........or should be before the election.

Mandarins grow well and flourish....in New Zealand.....under the Auspices..of not what you plant....but who planted it...for you. Not politically correct, may be..... but possibly accurate.

Read on...it may be in your Interests to understand.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1192...

My 17 year old daughter who is off to Otago Uni next year also regards Labour's free tertiary policy as a bad one, even though she would benefit directly from it. She says she has seen lots of talk on Facebook from young people in Auckland who say that they weren't intending to go to University but if they're given a free year they may as well go down to Dunedin and party for 12 months! We already have a lot of students at University who simply shouldn't be there as they are virtually illiterate - this policy is simply going to make matters worse.

Is the education system failing them before they get there?

Agree AberdeenDunedin,

It's typical of Labour's populist policies......

Poorly conceived. And the implementation would be a shambles.

More taxes wasted.

TTP you've been feed populist policies for the last nine years by National but you don't even realise it..

And she is absolutely right ....clever young lady, well done

Probably off to study real estate...top of the class at high school

See what she says when she comes out and the only job she can get is in Auckland or Wellington, while saddling 40,000 grand debt at uni, then having to save from 100K to 200K to buy an average house and then being saddled with 800K debt for the rest of her life.

All this while fighting for jobs from all the overseas immigrants and low wage inflation so once she gets that job she is earning relative peanuts compared to rest of the world. Then she may go Mum/Dad NZ sux Im off to Oz, USA or UK as I can get more money and buy cheaper houses.

Life sounds so rosy. At least we have the internet now you can skype and see your grandkids.

That year of free partying sounds quite good in comparison...

CJ099, sorry I wasn't aware that Margaret Thatcher was only 37 when she was Prime Minister and had no business acumen?
Please advise us all why Jacinda is the equivalent of Margaret Thatcher with her socialist ideas?

Do you have a business degree TM2?

Because you're a business owner right - so you must be well qualified to do your job? Especially if you're going judge other people and their ability to do theirs?

Steven Joyce is obviously well qualified as well as Finance Minister with his zoology degree and failure of his economics papers at uni?

Another Labour supporter grasping at straws. The fact that his business is still here means he's doing something right and has a real life "experience". If he runs his business to the ground it does not affect every single NZer and he would've gained more "experience" but not at the expense of "every single NZer". She has neither the business experience nor a political party leader experience. Nada. Every one of her screw ups will touch the lives of every single NZer. Steven Joyce built his business from ground up over 17 years. All Taxinda did was run around telling other socialists how to spend other people's money.

He has a business brain and doesn't bleat out idealistic BS without any fact!

Is that the Margaret Thatcher who finished Uni in 1947, joined the Tory party in 1948 and became an MP in 1951? Clearly an absolute wealth of experience and business acumen she brought to the job.

I guess the silver lining in a Labour defeat in this election would be a wholesale replacement of its front bench losers with some better brighter young or business people who could put two and two together ... Maybe, just maybe they could come up with a more sellable plan next time ... As for the Unions, ..hmmm, this might be a wake up call that businesses do not want to go back to the 70s and held to ransom again !!
As for the Greens, who for a moment started talking as if they were already in Gov splashing money they don't have , they would better go back to the forests and dig a hole for themselves and meditate for a while ( along with their voters) !!

Eco by name but not by nature. A bit of volunteer tree planting on Saturday might do you some good.

Labour put on some glitter around August this year. National got no glitter but a lot of substance. We had no real opposition party over the past 6 or so years. If you ask the two contenders, how should we spend the income. One would likely say "prudently" and the other would likely say "the more the merrier". We have a clear choice this election. Stay put Bill. You have my vote and hopefully a very large part of the rest of the voters as well.

Simple choice, continue to support immigration fueled bank profits and tax credits for debt/housing ponzi, or support people living and paying tax in NZ wanting their own shelter and clean water/environment.

Seems a simple choice really.

National are going to win and probably govern with ACT and Maori Party.

Peters is on the way out and as Gareth Morgan said yesterday, 'Winston's disintegrating'.

Winston's body is beyond the reach of conventional forces of decay at this point given his daily regimen.

Pickled?

Bill English has claimed incomes have risen twice as fast as prices in National's three terms and exports have diversified away from dairying. Rod Oram fact-checks both claims and finds English is mostly wrong on incomes and just plain wrong on exports.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/20/49045/fact-checking-english-on-inc...

English is also a blatent liar. I thought Christians were taught not to lie. He must have missed those sermons.

The problem with confession is it's an easy out. Although you are technically supposed to repent and not keep deliberately practicing the same sin. I'm not sure how he navigates around his conduct vis-a-vis Todd Barclay.

... Wild Bill is no ordinary fool ... he knows that the Catholic Church is the greatest fraternity to belong to .....

You have 6 days to lie , steal .... pillage the village .... fornicate with your neighbour's ass ..... go wild me old son ... do as you feel fit ....

... then on Sunday , your get out of jail card is to repent ... beseech the Lord for forgiveness .... all is well , say 3 hail Mary's ....

And on Monday .. you can get cracking , start the whole shebang going again ....

... we're all going to heaven , us Catholic lads ..... weeeeee-heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !

I’m certain Ardern will be PM one day, however she isn’t ready yet. She lacks substance and deep thought is not a strength. Her fiscal promises are outrageous, we can’t afford them and if we had an earthquake or another GFC NZ will go backwards big time.

"..if when we had an earthquake or another GFC NZ will go backwards big time."...and it will make no difference who is running the show. National = Labour, with a minor difference or two, but fundamentally? The same.....Oh, and 'when'?...Seddon took another one yesterday, didn't it? 5.4 odd....so Welly's turn can't be far off.....

How do we afford $2billion in subsidies each year to keep a housing ponzi working?

I have voted , so I will not make any comments until after the election

Why does having voted (for Winston if i recall correctly) mean you won't comment? It's not like anyone will be swayed by your comments as I don't think anyone here is doubting their choice.

2 ticks blue. Adern is toast after yesterday.

Wouldn't bet on that . Just heard young people are registering and voting early , and its more likely they voting for Labour or Greens .

I surely hope they do. I have much contact with seniors and there is an element of complacency about many of them, so it is high time for the young to improve their status in NZ. I also hope dairy shop workers also vote against National. Their lives will probably become a whole lot safer in a much more equal society.

Northland seat just became very interesting. Be interesting to see what National do there. probably depend how close their own polling says NZ First are to going under 5%.
Probably not much with 2 days to go , unless they do a deal with Winston , or try and knock him out altogether.

Knock the lying thief off, win Northland and get 4.9% Party Vote.

NZ - soon to be owned by the Chinese overlords, testing their rockets on their dairy farms, all bought on by the white mans greed. They must be chuckling back in Shanghai. How to take over the world? - Use average western numpty and their greed against them. One belt, one road.