Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand with news bitcoin can't quite make it to US$10,000 as conviction is being tested.
But first, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook the world economy has strengthened, with monetary and fiscal stimulus underpinning a broad-based and synchronised improvement in growth rates across most countries. They are picking New Zealand's growth to be +2.4% this year and see it rising in the subsequent two years. They also see our jobless rates staying down and our current account staying at just under -3% of GDP. Much of this is based on 'fiscal expansion' with the new Government spending freely. Interestingly, they don't see house price falls. But they do see higher inflation and upside risk to a "deterioration in the budget position".
In Australia, they see the party continuing although with growth slightly less than for New Zealand. Housing and the links to China are flagged as the main risks. Still, they see the RBA as close to hiking its policy rate.
Meanwhile in Washington DC, US Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell said “conditions are supportive” of another rate increase next month, during a Senate hearing to consider his nomination to lead the central bank. He also said existing bank rules are 'tough enough', and by implication pushing back at the President who wants to unwind the existing rules that he says have victimised Wall Street.
Meanwhile another US confidence indicator shows it at a 17 year high.
In Canada, their central bank has been reviewing its financial system and is predicting that the upcoming new mortgage stress test will disqualify more than 10% of borrowers in 2018, more in Toronto and Vancouver, less elsewhere. More generally, they see financial risks easing in Canada. The RBNZ releases its own Financial Stability Review here today at 9 am and we will be carrying the press conference live at 11 am.
In China, HNA Group has confirmed it is selling down some of the assets it bought in its recent offshore splurge. Property in Sydney is part of that selloff. HNA says it is bringing its overseas acquisitions in line with the country’s policies, in a clear sign Beijing is reining them in.
In New York, the UST 10yr yield has slipped to 2.32%.
The price of crude oil is a little lower again today, now just under US$58 / barrel, while the Brent benchmark is just under US$63.50.
The price of gold is up US$7 to US$1,294 oz.
And the Kiwi dollar is also up. We are now at 69.3 US¢. And on the cross rates we are at 91 AU¢, and against the euro at 58.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 over 72 for the first time in two weeks. Bitcoin has moved a little higher overnight, now at US$9,945, but can't break the US$10,000 mark. Even the boosters may be questioning their conviction.
If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».